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Hullabaloo


Friday, June 17, 2016

 
Friday night soother

by digby

Here's a little joey for you. Enjoey!



Now go put a shrimp on the bar-b, crack a nice frosty Fosters and make a toast to our Australian friends for their civilized gun policies.

.
 
Reprise: Shut down the pump

by digby


















Apparently, the only gun violence right wingers care about is that perpetrated by a Muslim extremist. And civil libertarians are concerned about the right of innocent people who've been cleared as terrorist suspects by the FBI to walk into a store and buy a gun unimpeded.

I frankly don't care what the reason someone buys a gun and shoots up a bunch of innocent people is. This epidemic of gun violence has a many motivations as incidents and one is no more dangerous than any other. And I also don't care if innocent people have trouble buying a gun.  Sorry, I just don't think gun ownership is intrinsic to freedom. It makes no sense to me. Privacy, speech, movement, assembly all of that absolutely. The right to own a machine that's made for nothing but killing? Not so much. Whatever the rationale might have been operative during revolutionary war times has long since become anachronistic. In the event of another revolution, a bunch of bozos with AR-15s aren't going to save us.

If innocent people have to go through hoops to buy a gun it just isn't the end of the world. If they are not allowed to buy semi-automatic weapons at all? Good. Nobody needs one of those for any reason, not even hunting feral pigs which I understand is one of the reasons people say they "need" these weapons. Sorry, not a compelling reason.

Anyway, I figured I might as well post this again at the end of this awful week:

Shut down the pump: a little parable for our time

Here is an interesting story for you to read today:

British doctor John Snow couldn’t convince other doctors and scientists that cholera, a deadly disease, was spread when people drank contaminated water until a mother washed her baby’s diaper in a town well in 1854 and touched off an epidemic that killed 616 people.
[...]
Dr. Snow believed sewage dumped into the river or into cesspools near town wells could contaminate the water supply, leading to a rapid spread of disease.

In August of 1854 Soho, a suburb of London, was hit hard by a terrible outbreak of cholera. Dr. Snows himself lived near Soho, and immediately went to work to prove his theory that contaminated water was the cause of the outbreak.

“Within 250 yards of the spot where Cambridge Street joins Broad Street there were upwards of 500 fatal attacks of cholera in 10 days,” Dr. Snow wrote “As soon as I became acquainted with the situation and extent of this irruption (sic) of cholera, I suspected some contamination of the water of the much-frequented street-pump in Broad Street.”

Dr. Snow worked around the clock to track down information from hospital and public records on when the outbreak began and whether the victims drank water from the Broad Street pump. Snow suspected that those who lived or worked near the pump were the most likely to use the pump and thus, contract cholera. His pioneering medical research paid off. By using a geographical grid to chart deaths from the outbreak and investigating each case to determine access to the pump water, Snow developed what he considered positive proof the pump was the source of the epidemic... Snow was able to prove that the cholera was not a problem in Soho except among people who were in the habit of drinking water from the Broad Street pump. He also studied samples of water from the pump and found white flecks floating in it, which he believed were the source of contamination.

On 7 September 1854, Snow took his research to the town officials and convinced them to take the handle off the pump, making it impossible to draw water. The officials were reluctant to believe him, but took the handle off as a trial only to find the outbreak of cholera almost immediately trickled to a stop. Little by little, people who had left their homes and businesses in the Broad Street area out of fear of getting cholera began to return.

It took many more years before it was widely accepted that cholera came from the water. (In fact, it took a priest trying to prove that it was God's will to finally do it!)

But here's the relevant takeaway: they didn't need to cure the disease to end the epidemic. What ended it was shutting down the pump.

Here's another story for you to think about today:

From 1984 to 1996, multiple killings aroused public concern. The 1984 Milperra massacre was a major incident in a series of conflicts between various 'outlaw motorcycle gangs'. In 1987, the Hoddle Street massacre and the Queen Street massacre took place in Melbourne. In response, several states required the registration of all guns, and restricted the availability of self-loading rifles and shotguns. In the Strathfield massacre in New South Wales, 1991, two were killed with a knife, and five more with a firearm. Tasmania passed a law in 1991 for firearm purchasers to obtain a licence, though enforcement was light. Firearm laws in Tasmania and Queensland remained relatively relaxed for longarms. In 1995, Tasmania had the second lowest rate of homicides per head of population.

The Port Arthur massacre in 1996 transformed gun control legislation in Australia. Thirty five people were killed and 21 wounded when a man with a history of violent and erratic behaviour beginning in early childhood opened fire on shop owners and tourists with two military style semi-automatic rifles. Six weeks after the Dunblane massacre in Scotland, this mass killing at the notorious former convict prison at Port Arthur horrified the Australian public and had powerful political consequences.
The Port Arthur perpetrator said he bought his firearms from a gun dealer without holding the required firearms licence.

Prime Minister John Howard, then newly elected, immediately took the gun law proposals developed from the report of the 1988 National Committee on Violence and forced the states to adopt them under a National Firearms Agreement. This was necessary because the Australian Constitution does not give the Commonwealth power to enact gun laws. The proposals included a ban on all semi-automatic rifles and all semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns, and a tightly restrictive system of licensing and ownership controls.

Some discussion of measures to allow owners to undertake modifications to reduce the capacity of magazine-fed shotguns ("crimping") occurred, but the government refused to permit this.

Surveys showed up to 85% of Australians supported gun control,but some farmers and sporting shooters strongly opposed the new laws.

This did not solve the problem of mental illness or end the primitive capacity of human beings to commit murder and mayhem. Those are huge problems that their society, like all societies, is still grappling with every day. But it did end the epidemic of mass shootings. They have not had even one since then. 

The lesson is this: End the epidemic and then we can --- and must --- talk about root causes, extremist ideology, mental health facilities and our violent culture. But first things first --- shut down the damned pump.


.




 
The best graduation speech ever

by digby




















Trust me. You won't regret watching this:





I needed that so badly. It gives me hope for the future of the country.  And comedy!
 
The wrong place and the wrong time

by digby

Gross:















These folks are on the wrong track if they think this nonsense will work with the gay community:

Stickers and posters featuring a rainbow-colored version of the Gadsden flag and the hashtag #ShootBack were raising eyebrows in West Hollywood on Thursday morning in the wake of the massacre at a gay nightclub in Florida.

The signage was affixed to electric boxes, light poles, trash cans and other fixtures near West Hollywood City Hall, the Pacific Design Center and along Santa Monica Boulevard. Several were hung near the Abbey Food & Bar, a well-known gay lounge.

The posters featured a coiled, striking rattlesnake, similar to the yellow Gadsden flag that reads “Don’t Tread On Me” and often is used by the Tea Party movement. The West Hollywood signs were rainbow-colored, like the gay pride flag.

But then she kept seeing them — in the public right of way and on private property — and alerted others in the Sheriff’s Department.

“I understand the sentiment behind them and 1st Amendment rights, but it’s a bad message,” Perez said. “I hope it’s just people venting that they could do this, and I’m hoping their calmness will take over. It’s our job to keep you safe.”

Perez said the past few days in West Hollywood — which has a famously large lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender population — have been tense. The Orlando slayings occurred just hours before the city hosted a massive LGBT Pride parade, and a candlelight vigil for the victims drew hundreds of people on Monday evening.

“I understand that people want to fight back after Orlando,” she said. “But there are ways to do that without a gun.”

The mayor said she, too, was surprised by the signs. “We are disturbed by them,” West Hollywood Mayor Lauren Meister said of the posters. “We don’t believe in an eye for an eye, and we advocate against gun violence.”


The signs were posted just days after Sunday’s shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Fla. The 29-year-old gunman, Omar Mateen, had spoken in the past of his hatred for gay people before killing 49 club-goers and wounding 53 more.

Capt. Holly Perez of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department West Hollywood Station said she first noticed one of the rainbow #ShootBack signs Wednesday night as she was running along Santa Monica Boulevard. She was surprised, initially thinking it was just something leftover from Sunday’s L.A. Pride parade and “a fluke.”

At Monday night’s vigil at the gay bar Micky’s, people spoke of wanting to end gun violence, and many loudly voiced their support for an assault weapons ban, Meister said.

“It’s been a very emotional and turbulent week for the city and the LGBT community,” Meister said. “There’s a lot of frustration, a lot of rage, a lot of sadness, but we firmly believe that love conquers hate.”

Meister said it was unclear who designed or posted the signs.

“Whoever is doing this, this is not the voice of the city,” Meister said.

West Hollywood Councilman John Duran, who is gay, said the signs were upsetting and not the right message for the gay community.

“Even during our heightened days of civil disobedience and protest, we have only advocated peaceful means, never arming ourselves and retaliating with violence,” Duran said.

Oscar Delgado, West Hollywood’s director of public works, said city crews would be removing signs within the public right of way, which is standard procedure.

“We are looking for them,” Delgado said Thursday morning. “Ones that are on public property are going to be removed.”

Yeah. Like Trump who insists "the gays love me" these folks seem to believe that the entire country is just like them. It isn't. Thankfully.

.
 
Ad war begins 

by digby














I'm seeing this ad a couple of times an hour in California. I'm not sure it makes much sense but this Trump Super Pac seems to have a ton of money so maybe they're just blanketing the country with it for ... reasons:



The 30-second, entitled "More of the Same," intersperses clips of Hillary Clinton denying any improper activity on her private email server with clips of Bill Clinton denying any sexual activity with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky. The clips are edited in a way that blurs the line between the two distinct controversies. The message is clear: that Bill and Hillary Clinton are two politicians cut from the same cloth who use the same language to evade accountability. The ad comes from the super PAC Rebuilding America Now, which has raised $32 million so far from Trump supporters, founder Tom Barrack told CNN last week.
It appears to be an Alex Castellanos special :
Tom Barrack, a real estate investor and longtime friend of Trump’s, has assisted the PAC with fundraising, though he told CNN that he would have no formal role with the group. Barrack is also “close personal friends” with Trump’s campaign chairman and chief strategist, Paul Manafort, according to a bio provided to the Associated Press by Barrack’s publicist. Barrack recently hosted a large fundraiser for the candidate. 
According to CNN, Barrack said that the “principal operatives” running the group will be Laurance Gay, an ally of Manafort, who will serve as managing director, and Ken McKay, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign and Chris Christie’s former campaign manager. 
Ryan Call, Rebuilding America Now’s treasurer, is an attorney at Hale Westfall, LLP. He served as Colorado Republican State Chairman from 2011 to 2015. 
Christopher Marston is listed as Rebuilding America Now’s Custodian of Records in its FEC filing. A veteran Republican campaign operative and founder of the campaign finance and compliance firm Election CFO, he is listed as the treasurer on record, for about 60 campaign committees, political action committees and other groups since 2012, including almost 40 that are active in the 2016 cycle. As we noted in April, included among these was the anti-Trump PAC Make America Awesome. 
Former Romney advisor and CNN contributor Alex Castellanos will also work for the PAC.  
According to the New York Times, his role will be to “cut advertisements and work on strategy” for the PAC. His hiring is notable because he tried to organize an anti-Trump super PAC as recently as late 2015.
He's the perfect guy for the job. Recall this from 2008:
CNN senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin noted on the May 20 edition of CNN's The Situation Room that  "[t]here was a column in The New York Times not too long ago where it talked about some of the humor in the campaign, and the punch line was a line that was -- that Hillary Clinton was a 'white bitch.' " 
Moments later ... CNN political contributor Alex Castellanos interrupted, asserting, "And some women, by the way, are named that and it's accurate.
Castellanos is a big fan of subliminal advertising.  He's the guy who made the infamous "HANDS" and  "RATS" ads.  This ad would seem to be a sneaky way of getting people to think about Trump's accusations that Clinton was responsible for her husband's philandering.

Castellanos has said in the past that he found Trump's willingness to go there admirable:
Mr. Trump’s assault on the Clintons for their “War On Women,” for example, has elevated him into a general election-style battle matchup with Hillary Clinton. More importantly, Trump has again shown GOP voters he is the only Republican candidate with the fortitude to take on the Clintons at their own game and give as good as Republicans usually get.  For a Republican Party maddened at seeing an inbred Washington establishment rationalize decades of failure, reward itself for the same, and then wipe the floor with those who object, Trump is a righteous avenger — and he still has room to grow.
This should be fun ...

.

 
And now a word from the man who brought you Sarah Palin

by digby

I don't know why William Kristol thinks anyone will listen to him, but he keeps talking anyway:

What one hears now are expressions of dismay and sighs of resignation, accompanied sometimes by short lectures about the competing pressures and manifold complexities of political reality. And what one hears are reminders from the pols and the pros that it's misleadingly simple-minded to think that if someone is hanging by a thread, maybe you should just step up and cut it. After all, no political consultant worth his salt would ever suggest anything so crude. No way. Before even coming close to that daunting thread, we need more meetings! We need more polling! We need to wait for more evidence! We need to wait for more mistakes by Trump! We need to wait to see what others who are also waiting will do! We need to .  .  . wait, wait, wait.

Do we really? Trump's ghastly performance over the last couple of weeks has revived the question of an open convention, where delegates would have it in their power, should they choose to exercise it, to nominate any eligible citizen for consideration by the convention and to vote their conscience in a secret ballot. Meanwhile, the announcement of the Better for America group has given some organizational ballast to a possible independent campaign, with ballot access and signature gathering efforts about to get underway. Both an open convention and an independent candidacy are long shots. But they are far from hopeless.

But, you say, surely it's doubtful either option ultimately would work.

Well, life is lived under the shadow of doubt.

In his final letter, shortly before his death and 50 years after the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson reminisced about his fellow signers, "that host of worthies, who joined with us on that day, in the bold and doubtful election we were to make for our country." The choices the signers of the Declaration made were truly "bold and doubtful." On the other hand, the choice to mobilize against Trump, the choice to try to save the party and the country from Trump and Clinton—such a choice isn't even doubtful and doesn't really require much boldness.
I don't know why I'm sharing this.  I guess I just needed a a little chuckle today and thought you might too.

They're not going to replace Trump at the convention.

Have they met Trump voters lately?




 
Headline of the day

by digby

He's Baaaack!

by digby


On Thursday night, Mr. Trump said he was just fine with Mr. Bush’s activities. “I like that he’s helping certain Republicans,” Mr. Trump said, adding that Mr. Bush’s brother “had a great chance to beat me” and did not.

Mr. Bush’s effort to help down-ballot candidates fill their campaign coffers underscores how fissures in the Republican Party are affecting fund-raising. The senators are not receiving any fund-raising help from Mr. Trump, a typical role for the party’s standard-bearer. And few congressional candidates have sought Mr. Trump’s endorsement, given his high negative ratings in polls and unpredictable nature.

The support from Mr. Bush also reflects his rising standing. He was toxic to his own party in the final years of his presidency and left the White House deeply unpopular after two wars and a financial collapse that plunged the nation into recession.

Few candidates were clamoring for his help. Outside of helping his brother and his nephew, George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner, and his friend Ed Gillespie in a Virginia Senate race, Mr. Bush has largely stayed away from campaigns since returning to Texas in 2009, writing only a handful of personal checks for candidates who visited his Dallas office.

But 47 percent of people nationally view him favorably now, according to a February poll from Quinnipiac University. (Mr. Trump’s favorability was at 31 percent in a June 15 national poll from Bloomberg Politics.)

Further, Mr. Bush is highly popular among Republicans, especially the party elites who are big campaign donors. The hosts listed on the invitations for the fund-raisers for Mr. McCain and Mr. Blunt include some of the country’s leading Republican contributors who have recoiled from Mr. Trump’s candidacy.


My God, how desperate can they be?


 

The scourge of newsiness

by Tom Sullivan


Via ETC News News Dump.

Eugene Robinson's piece in the Washington Post looks at the challenge covering Donald Trump presents to the news media:

Trump lies the way other people breathe. We’re used to politicians who stretch the truth, who waffle or dissemble, who emphasize some facts while omitting others. But I can’t think of any other political figure who so brazenly tells lie after lie, spraying audiences with such a fusillade of untruths that it is almost impossible to keep track. Perhaps he hopes the media and the nation will become numb to his constant lying. We must not.
Trouble is, it's not just Trump. Like Billy Pilgrim, American readers have come unstuck from the truth. Human attention span now is less than that of a goldfish. Our capacity to discern truth from lies is about as keen. The Internet and social media are awash in newsy-looking websites featuring thin, unsourced "reportage" of questionable provenance — newsiness. But it's easily digestible. As Jeff Goldblum said of his character's job at People Magazine in The Big Chill, "I don’t write anything longer than what the average person can read during the average dump." That makes web surfers easy prey for Donald Trumps and disinformation traffickers. When a friend shares a "well-researched" article, prepare for a fusillade of "facts" unsupported by a single link or original source reporting. Goldfish don't check sources.

Neither will Trump's fans. But journalists should. After citing a string of Trumpian nonsense from the past week, Robinson continues:
It goes against all journalistic instinct to write in a news article, as The Post did Monday, that Trump’s national security address was “a speech laden with falsehoods and exaggeration.” But I don’t think we’re doing our job if we simply report assertions of fact without evaluating whether they are factual.

Trump’s lies also present a challenge for voters. The normal assumption is that politicians will bend the truth to fit their ideology — not that they will invent fake “truth” out of whole cloth. Trump is not just an unorthodox candidate. He is an inveterate liar — maybe pathological, maybe purposeful. He doesn’t distort facts, he makes them up.
If Trump's version of the truth fits his tribe's preferred narrative, they will swallow the bait without a second thought. The threat newsiness poses is that we fall prey to the same "create our own reality" thinking of the right-wing exuberants who coined reality-based community as a term of derision for the left during the Iraq War. Robinson thinks we should be better than passing along newsiness and he's right.


Thursday, June 16, 2016

 
Professor Trump wrong again

by digby



















Of course:

Muslim-Americans have repeatedly informed authorities of fellow Muslims they fear might be turning to extremism, law enforcement officials say, contrary to a claim by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump this week.

"They don't report them," Trump said in a CNN interview on Monday, in the wake of the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub of 49 people by an American Muslim who claimed allegiance to Islamic State. "For some reason, the Muslim community does not report people like this."

But FBI director James Comey said, "They do not want people committing violence, either in their community or in the name of their faith, and so some of our most productive relationships are with people who see things and tell us things who happen to be Muslim.

“It’s at the heart of the FBI’s effectiveness to have good relationships with these folks,” Comey said at a press conference following the Orlando shootings.

Andrew Ames, a spokesman for the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Washington field office, told Reuters on Wednesday that the agency has a “robust” relationship with the local Muslim community. FBI agents operating in the area have received reports about suspicious activity and other issues from community members.

Michael Downing, deputy chief of the Los Angeles Police Department and head of its Counterterrorism and Special Operations Bureau, said the city's Muslim community has been cooperative in reporting "red flags."

“I personally have been called by community members about several things, very significant things,” Downing told Reuters. “What we say to communities is that we don’t want you to profile humans, we want you to profile behavior.”

Just like a drunk wingnut at the end of the bar spouting off like he's an expert about everything and he doesn't have a clue, Trump is spreading bigoted nonsense about the Muslim community, including Americans, and I'm sure people believe him because he validates their primitive tribalism.

He also said that Muslim immigrants refuse to assimilate. This too is total BS:

American Muslims are in fact more culturally integrated than European Muslims and say they identify more strongly with their American identity than their religious identity, according to a study from the Council on Foreign Relations: 
The percentage of U.S. Muslims in individual income and education brackets tracks closely to that of the rest of the U.S. population, surveys suggest. According to a 2009 Gallup poll, U.S. Muslims have the second-highest level of education among major religious groups in the United States. Almost 50 percent of Muslims identify with religion before their U.S. identity (nearly half of U.S. Christians polled by Gallup also identified with their religion first).
Even so, Americans are increasingly less tolerant of Muslims; a survey from the Public Religion Research Institute in September 2015 found that 56 percent of Americans think Islam is "at odds with American values and way of life," up from 47 percent in 2011.

Personally I think Donald Trump is "at odds with American values and way of life" and yet millions of people are voting for him. They own this. It's straight up bigotry validated by the Republican Party's nominee for president of the United States.

And it's disgusting.

.


 
Testing the limits of his appeal

by digby


















Trump's doing it his way:

Behind the scenes, the RNC is struggling to get Trump's team to staff up. Communication hires that were supposed to happen last week never materialized. Instead of matching the RNC's ground game and firing power, Trump is focused on the same strategy he had during the primary -- dominate the news cycle and don't worry about details.

 Donald Trump defiant following Obama's criticism after Orlando shooting 3:04
Veteran campaign operatives have expressed dismay over the Trump campaign's unwillingness to fill key roles and infighting between senior staffers. 
"He fundamentally doesn't believe he needs to campaign as usual," one source said.

Maybe it will work.  He's just that special. And if it doesn't work out, he's got his new media empire to fall back on:

Trump is indeed considering creating his own media business, built on the audience that has supported him thus far in his bid to become the next president of the United States. According to several people briefed on the discussions, the presumptive Republican nominee is examining the opportunity presented by the “audience” currently supporting him. He has also discussed the possibility of launching a “mini-media conglomerate” outside of his existing TV-production business, Trump Productions LLC. He has, according to one of these people, enlisted the consultation of his daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who owns the The New York Observer. Trump’s rationale, according to this person, is that, “win or lose, we are onto something here. We’ve triggered a base of the population that hasn’t had a voice in a long time.” For his part, Kushner was heard at a New York dinner party saying that “the people here don’t understand what I’m seeing. You go to these arenas and people go crazy for him.” (Both Kushner and Ivanka Trump did not respond to a request for comment.)

“EVEN OLD FOX NEWS DIDN’T HAVE THE RIGHT READ ON WHAT THE BASE IS. AND WE DO.”

Trump, this person close to the matter suggests, has become irked by his ability to create revenue for other media organizations without being able to take a cut himself. Such a situation “brings him to the conclusion that he has the business acumen and the ratings for his own network.” Trump has “gotten the bug,” according to this person. “So now he wants to figure out if he can monetize it.”

Of course he does. He's not making any money on this otherwise, is he? And it's apparent that he needs it.

You have to love this though:

The Trump camp’s interest in cable may, on some level, be the most telling indicator of the businessman’s financial aptitude. These days, after all, the most successful media companies are figuring out their strategies in a post-cable, over-the-top landscape. In fact, one rival entertainment executive pointed out to me that launching a cable channel is “nuts” because of the limited spectrum available, the declining advertising rates, and the immense start-up costs and resources required. “It’s a fool’s errand,” this person said. “But then again, we are talking about Donald Trump.”

 
Just another right winger after all :(

by digby



















How typical. Hugh Hewitt now loves what he's hearing from the crazed Donald Trump. Gets him all excited:

A week after Hugh Hewitt called on the Republican National Committee to change its convention rules if Donald Trump could not change himself, the conservative radio host has signaled that he is back on-board supporting the party's presumptive nominee.

“Although there’s been talk in recent weeks of implementing new rules at the Republican convention in Cleveland that would allow party leaders to replace Trump — talk that I’ve entertained — the appetite for that sort of drastic measure is gone,” Hewitt wrote in a Washington Post op-ed.

What changed his mind? Trump’s speeches on Friday and Monday, addressing religious liberty at the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference and responding to the Orlando, Florida, attack, respectively. Hewitt wrote that Trump "has returned to a winning message and walled off the assorted ‘never Trump’ holdouts trying to upend his nomination.”

Hewitt’s endorsement comes after Trump, in the aftermath of the Orlando massacre, repeatedly insinuated that President Barack Obama supports terrorism.

Yep, selling yourself as a psychopathic strongman is the way to win. Hewitt sure likes it anyway.

If you've been wondering why Hewitt suddenly became the "reasonable Republican" on every TV network this season, check out his interview archives to see how often the Villagers turn up on his show to yuk it up and let their hair down.

More here.


.
 
Chris Hayes turns his lively mind to the subject of criminal justice

by digby


















Chris Hayes is writing a book on the justice system and it sounds really interesting. Be sure to read the whole interview but this excerpt caught my eye:

What made you embark on a book about criminal justice?

We covered it a lot before Ferguson and after Ferguson. The two main things it grew out of were all of that reporting and also my first-person experience of growing up in New York in the years when we had 2,500 murders as opposed to 350. What I’m trying to write about is, why did we — meaning us as citizens and particularly us as white people — build this system that we have?

So it’s not just about cops shooting innocent people.

No, it’s the entirety of the American carceral state, from the highest per capita prison rate in the world to the thousands of summonses that are issued for selling M&Ms. The argument is that we’ve made two republics that have functionally different expectations of them, different levels of rights. Sometimes it doesn’t feel like it was a democratic choice, but I kind of think it was.

Speaking again of democratic choices, you were writing this book about white fear during Trump’s improbable rise. Do you work him in?

I’m still figuring it out. White fear is always seeking its object. For a very long time, crime was the dominant political issue of the day. Then it was terrorism, now it’s a combination of immigration and terrorism, and politicians will come along and exploit it, cultivate it.

Why do you call the over-policed parts of the nation a colony?

In a colony, the force of law is in some fundamental sense not representative. There’s a chapter arguing that the complaints of the citizens were extremely close to the complaints of the founders. The precipitating spark of the revolution had a lot to do with policing powers, particularly the policing powers of the tax collectors. Taxes at that point were collected by what are essentially cops, because there was no one filing their 1090s. There is essentially the British version of stop-and-frisk, the arbitrary, capricious exercise of that power on colonial smugglers.

Are you trying to reclaim Founding Father rhetoric from the tea party?

Yes. There’s obviously the deeply complicating factor of race, but if you go back and read the DOJ report on Ferguson, the picture of state power that it conjures would be in some ways recognizable to the founders and odious to them.
That's typically insightful of him. Yes, we've "colonized" parts of our own country. What an interesting way of looking at the issue.

I confess I've been watching the series "Turn" about spying during the Revolutionary War. And they do a nice job of illustrating what must have been tremendous frustration at the "capricious exercise of power" by the Tories on the colonials. Watching it hits at a very primitive American reflex against state power. Turning that reflex to these communities of color makes you see it in a completely different way. But then state power, exercised as slavery and Jim Crow, always looked different to African Americans, Native Americans and Latino migrants didn't it? They've been colonized from the beginning and in may ways remain so today.

Anyway, I can't wait to read it.

.
 
Love, wingnut style

by digby

I just had to share this one. The scope of right wing grift is truly astonishing. They are masterful.



Below please find a special message from one of CHQ's advertisers.


My wife won't stop hitting on me ever since she watched this video.

It's not that the video is "dirty" or anything like that . . .

In fact, it was created by a devout Christian from Ohio!

But the reason my wife is so worked up into a frenzy is because inside this video . . .

The man shares a startling discovery he made while on a mission trip to Africa.

You see . . .

The married villagers he met in Africa were all having the loudest . . . craziest . . . most passionate lovemaking sessions imaginable . . .

And it was going on night-after-night.

Finally the missionary had to know what the heck was going on . . .

And that's when the villagers told him about this powerful "arousal recipe" . . .

Something that consists of just a handful of natural ingredients . . .

But that's now been proven in 200+ studies to dramatically increase arousal and heal "performance issues."

You can see the full list of ingredients by clicking here now.

I do have to warn you though: this recipe is pretty darn powerful.

And since my wife and I started using it for ourselves . . .

We haven't been able to keep our hands off one another!



Sincerely,

Dan Colburn
Christian Marriage Coalition



.
digby 6/16/2016 01:00:00 PM
 
It wasn't meant for "fun"

by digby



















The family of the man who invented the AR-15 speaks out:

The AR-15 is the most talked about gun in America.

But the AR-15's creator died before the weapon became a popular hit and his family has never spoken out.

Until now.

"Our father, Eugene Stoner, designed the AR-15 and subsequent M-16 as a military weapon to give our soldiers an advantage over the AK-47," the Stoner family told NBC News late Wednesday. "He died long before any mass shootings occurred. But, we do think he would have been horrified and sickened as anyone, if not more by these events."

The inventor's surviving children and adult grandchildren spoke exclusively to NBC News by phone and email, commenting for the first time on their family's uneasy legacy. They requested individual anonymity in order to speak freely about such a sensitive topic. They also stopped short of policy prescriptions or legal opinions.

But their comments add unprecedented context to their father's creation, shedding new light on his intentions and adding firepower to the effort to ban weapons like the AR-15. The comments could also bolster a groundbreaking new lawsuit, which argues that the weapon is a tool of war — never intended for civilians.

Eugene Stoner would have agreed, his family said.

The ex-Marine and "avid sportsman, hunter and skeet shooter" never used his invention for sport. He also never kept it around the house for personal defense. In fact, he never even owned one.

And though he made millions from the design, his family said it was all from military sales.

"After many conversations with him, we feel his intent was that he designed it as a military rifle," his family said, explaining that Stoner was "focused on making the most efficient and superior rifle possible for the military."

He designed the original AR-15 in the late 1950s, working on it in his own garage and later as the chief designer for ArmaLite, a then small company in southern California. He made it light and powerful and he fashioned a new bullet for it — a .223 caliber round capable of piercing a metal helmet at 500 yards.

The Army loved it and renamed it the M16.

But after Stoner's death in 1997, at the age of 74, a semi-automatic version of the AR-15 became a civilian bestseller, too, spawning dozens of copy-cat weapons. The National Rifle Association has taken to calling it "America's rifle."

The bullets that tore through the Pulse nightclub in Orlando were Stoner's .223 rounds, fired from a AR-15 spin off made by Sig Sauer.

The idea that people have turned this weapon of war into a recreational toy is sickening. I heard someone say the other day that in gun culture it's like a "Barbie" for men. (An equally suspect cultural symbol but at least Barbie dolls don't literally kill people.)

It wasn't meant to be for fun. If Mattel came out with a toy that killed as many people as this hideous toy, they'd have been put out of business a long time ago. Just because it's used by adults doesn't make it any more acceptable.

I have been asked how I, as a civil libertarian, could support using the watch list and the no-fly list to keep people from buying guns. My answer is this: I don't think owning guns are a fundamental civil right so if an innocent person is denied a gun, I just don't care. I don't happen to believe that anyone needs a gun to be free. In fact, I think it's the opposite.

I believe the right to travel is fundamental, however, so there should be a reformation of the no-fly list and the terrorist watch list should have rights of due process as well. Innocent people should not be caught in a Kafkaesque black hole where they have no right to defend themselves.

But as far as I'm concerned a no-gun list is fine. There is no God-given right to own a killing machine and until 2008, there wasn't a constitutional right to own them either.

I wrote this for Salon a couple years back after yet another horrific massacre:

In the wake of the horrific Isla Vista, California, mass killing, Americans have once again engaged the debate over gun proliferation. Victims’ families issue primal cries for regulation of these deadly weapons and gun activists respond by waving the Constitution and declaring their “fundamental right” to bear arms is sacrosanct. Indeed, such right-wing luminaries as Joe the plumber, who not long ago shared the stage with the Republican nominees for president and vice president, said explicitly:
“Your dead kids don’t trump my constitutional rights.”
Iowa Republican Senate candidate Jodi Ernst, known for her violent campaign ads in which she is seen shooting guns and promising to “unload” on Obamacare, had this to say when asked about Isla Vista:
“This unfortunate accident happened after the ad, but it does highlight that I want to get rid of, repeal, and replace [opponent] Bruce Braley’s Obamacare. And it also shows that I am a strong supporter of the Second Amendment. That is a fundamental right.”
This argument is set forth by gun proliferation advocates as if it has been understood this way from the beginning of the republic. Indeed, “fundamental right to bear arms” is often spat at gun regulation advocates as if they have heard it from the mouths of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson themselves. But what none of them seem to acknowledge (or, more likely, know) is that this particular legal interpretation of the Second Amendment was validated by the Supreme Court all the way back in … 2008. That’s right. It was only six years ago that the Supreme Court ruled (in a 5-4 decision with the conservatives in the majority, naturally) that there was a “right to bear arms” as these people insist has been true for over two centuries. And even then it isn’t nearly as expansive as these folks like to pretend.

For instance, that gun-grabbing hippie Justice Antonin Scalia went out of his way in that decision to say that beyond the holding of handguns in the home for self-defense, regulations of firearms remained the purview of the state and so too was conduct. He wrote that regulating the use of concealed weapons or barring the use of weapons in certain places or restricting commercial use are permitted. That’s Antonin Scalia, well known to be at the far-right end of the legal spectrum on this issue. Most judges had always had a much more limited interpretation of the amendment.

Justice John Paul Stephens discussed his long experience with Second Amendment jurisprudence in his book “Six Amendments: How and Why We Should Change the Constitution,” and notes that when he came on the Supreme Court there was literally no debate among the justices, conservative or liberal, over the idea that the Second Amendment constituted a “fundamental right” to bear arms. Precedents going all the way back to the beginning of the republic had held that the state had an interest in regulating weapons and never once in all its years had declared a “fundamental right” in this regard.

So, what happened? Well, the NRA happened. Or more specifically, a change in leadership in the NRA happened. After all, the NRA had long been a benign sportsman’s organization devoted to hunting and gun safety. It wasn’t until 1977, that a group of radicals led by activists from the Second Amendment Foundation and the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms took control and changed the direction of the group to one dedicated to making the Second Amendment into a “fundamental right.”

What had been a fringe ideology was then systematically mainstreamed by the NRA, a program that prompted the retired arch conservative Chief Justice Warren Burger to say that the Second Amendment:
“Has been the subject of one of the greatest pieces of fraud, I repeat the word ‘fraud,’ on the American public by special interest groups that I have ever seen in my lifetime”
The results are clear to see. Mass shootings are just the tip of the iceberg. Today we have people brandishing guns in public, daring people to try to stop them in the wake of new laws legalizing open carry law even in churches, bars and schools. People “bearing arms” show up at political events, silently intimidating their opponents, making it a physical risk to express one’s opinion in public. They are shooting people with impunity under loose “stand your ground” and “castle doctrine” legal theories, which essentially allow gun owners to kill people solely on the ground that they “felt threatened.” Gun accidents are epidemic. And this, the gun proliferation activists insist, is “liberty.”

Michael Waldman of the Brennan Center for Justice (at NYU School of Law) has thoroughly documented all this history in his book, “The Second Amendment: A Biography,” a bit of which was excerpted in Politico magazine. He recommends that progressives who care about this issue think long and hard about how the right was able to turn this around, making a specific case for taking constitutional arguments seriously and using their “totemic” stature to advance the cause. He suggests that they adopt a similarly systematic approach, keeping this foremost in mind:
Molding public opinion is the most important factor. Abraham Lincoln, debating slavery, said in 1858, “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed. Consequently he who molds public sentiment goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces decisions. He makes statutes and decisions possible or impossible to be executed.” The triumph of gun rights reminds us today: If you want to win in the court of law, first win in the court of public opinion.
In his book, Justice John Paul Stevens suggest a modest tweak to the Second Amendment to finally make clear what the founders obviously intended:
“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms when serving in the Militia shall not be infringed.”
Emotional claims that the right to possess deadly weapons is so important that it is protected by the federal Constitution distort intelligent debate about the wisdom of particular aspects of proposed legislation designed to minimize the slaughter caused by the prevalence of guns in private hands. Those emotional arguments would be nullified by the adoption of my proposed amendment. The amendment certainly would not silence the powerful voice of the gun lobby; it would merely eliminate its ability to advance one mistaken argument.
This is important. As Waldman notes, where the NRA Headquarters once featured words about safety on the facade of its building, it is now festooned with the words of the Second amendment. Well, some of them anyway:
Visitors might not notice that the text is incomplete. It reads: “.. the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.” 
The first half—the part about the well regulated militia—has been edited out.
If they truly believed the 2nd Amendment was absolute and totally clear, you’d think they’d show all the language, wouldn’t you? One can only conclude that they are trying to hide something: its real meaning.

.


digby 6/16/2016 11:00:00 AM
 
Guns are selling like hotcakes

by digby
















I wrote about guns again for Salon this morning:

Back in 2000, Donald Trump published a book called “The America We Deserve” in which he endorsed the assault weapons ban and pointedly called out the GOP on the gun issue writing, “The Republicans walk the NRA line and refuse even limited restrictions.” After Sandy Hook in 2012, Trump tweeted “President Obama spoke for me and every American in his remarks in #Newtown Connecticut,” Those remarks included an emotional call for gun safety regulations. But since Trump announced his run for president, he’s been NRA all the way, with all that that implies.

He has fetishized guns daily on the stump, often pantomiming a quick draw and a sniper shot, insisting that the problem with gun violence is a simple matter of not enough people having enough guns. He says he is against all firearm or ammunition bans, including bans on assault rifles and proposes that concealed-carry permits be recognized in all 50 states. His answer to school shootings is to end the practice og gun-free zones anywhere. His full-throated support for the second amendment is one of center pieces of his rallies, and it’s always greeted with ecstatic cheering.

Last month, he was the recipient of the NRA endorsement where he appeared at their lavish convention and was greeted as a conquering hero. He gave one of his patented rambling rants showing that he hadn’t given the speech even five minutes of thought before delivering it. It came down to this:

Hillary’s pledge to issue new anti-gun executive orders. You know that. This is the behavior, you could say, of a dictator. This is the behavior of somebody frankly I think that doesn’t know what she’s doing. She’s not equipped to be president in so many different ways. But this is the thinking of a person that is not equipped to be the president of the United States. Believe me. She doesn’t understand it. Bad judgment.

The Second Amendment is on the ballot in November. The only way to save our Second Amendment is to vote for a person that you all know named Donald Trump. Okay? I will tell you.

I will never let you down. I will protect our Second Amendment. I will protect our country. Our military will be strong. Our border will be enforced.

The crowd went wild. It was a good thing the NRA had declared the auditorium in which he spoke to be a gun free zone or there is every chance some of these gun zealots would have exuberantly fired into the air like drunken cowboys.

One would have thought that NRA members, of all people, would be a little bit suspicious of Trump considering his past squishiness. But research into gun ownership may explain why he is so popular with this crowd despite all the cultural signals that would otherwise raise suspicions. This Washington Post article from a couple of months back explains that NRA gun culture is largely based on racial identity. And that’s what Trump is all about:

Filindra and Kaplan say their research does not imply that all white gun owners are racist, nor that all support for gun control carries racial baggage. But for a certain subset of white gun-rights supporters, particularly those who are inclined to hold certain prejudicial beliefs, messages about individualism and liberty and rights are understood in a very specific way. 
In the mind of this type of gun owner, "I am showing my white nationalist pride in a sort of generic way through gun ownership," Filindra posits. "This is my way of expressing my 'more-equal-than-others' status in a society where egalitarianism is the norm. I can’t say that some people are better and some are worse in terms of racial groups. But I can show it symbolically. I can show I'm a better citizen."
There are other studies going back decades which come to similar conclusions. For a certain minority of gun rights activists --- let’s call them Trump voters --- race is the motivating factor in their single-minded zeal. This second amendment fetish is a dog whistle. One can certainly see why they would look at this man as a leader of their cause despite his clear lack of gun zealot credibility.

In the wake of the Orlando massacre, Trump has behaved like a cretinous thug showing no empathy, no grace, no intelligence and no restraint in his comments. But he did seem to momentarily forget to dance with the gun nuts who endorsed him and on Wednesday morning betrayed his new NRA fanboys with a tweet:

I will be meeting with the NRA, who has endorsed me, about not allowing people on the terrorist watch list, or the no fly list, to buy guns.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 15, 2016





The NRA calmly issued a statement:

We are happy to meet with Donald Trump. The NRA's position on this issue has not changed.
They went on to explain that they are against terrorists having guns and back the bogus, useless completely phony bill being pressed by Texas Senator John Cornyn which would simply impose a three day delay for anyone on the watch list and require the government to go to court to prove the person was actually a terrorist during that period. (If only these Republicans had the same concern for real civil liberties instead of this single obsession with the founders alleged belief that we are endowed by our Creator with the right to bear the Sig Sauer MCX semi-automatic rifle, also known as the “Black Mamba.”)

It is unknown if Trump wanted something different when he called the meeting but it’s doubtful he has any clue about any of this. The best guess is that the NRA will sell him some bilge about the Cornyn bill and he’ll be good to go.

At this writing the Democrats in the Senate, led by Chris Murphy of Connecticut have been filibustering for hours, talking non-stop to force the Republicans to act on legislation that would deny suspected terrorists from purchasing firearms and require universal background checks. There is talk of some sort of compromise forged between Cornyn and California Senator Dianne Feinstein but the talks had gone nowhere as of last night, with Cornyn reportedly unable to move off of the NRA script.

This is a dramatic response. There has never before been a filibuster over gun control. But we’ve had dramatic moments before in the wake of these gun massacres and the people with common sense inevitably hit that brick wall known as the NRA. They are so powerful, and the gun culture in this country is so ingrained, that we often end up making the situation even worse.

A typical headline after a mass shooting looks like this:
NC gun sales rise in wake of Orlando killings 
June is normally a slow month for gun sales in Charlotte. It was different Tuesday, when Hyatt Guns was filled with customers fearing further gun control in the wake of killings in Orlando.
It happens every time. And there is even more bad news. The New York Times had this depressing report this week:

Lots of gun laws are proposed in the aftermath of an attack, new research shows. But in terms of what actually is enacted, the results aren’t what you might expect.
In states where a mass shooting happened, 15 percent more gun-related bills were introduced in state legislatures, three Harvard Business School professors found in a working paper published last month. But in states with legislatures that were led by Democrats or divided between the parties, a mass shooting wasn’t followed by any statistically significant increase in gun laws enacted.
It was different in states with Republican-controlled legislatures. After a mass shooting, the number of laws passed to loosen gun restrictions rose by 75 percent. In other words, in places where mass shootings lead to any legislative changes at all, it tends to be in the direction of guns becoming more easily available, like lowering the minimum age to buy a handgun to 18 from 21 or eliminating a waiting period for a gun purchase.

So, common sense gun reforms are not enacted even in the wake of horrifying gun violence but looser gun laws are. No wonder the NRA is so smug every time we have one of the mass killings. They profit from them.

It’s always possible that the tide will turn and maybe Orlando is the beginning of a new era. One would have thought it wouldn’t take more than a mentally ill young man mowing down rooms full of tiny first graders but it didn’t make a difference. And you’ll have to forgive me if I’m cynical about the idea that these Republicans will change their minds because 49 mostly LGBT Latinos were killed. That’s just not a constituency likely to pry them away from their fealty to the NRA.

But it has to happen at some point. It’s impossible to believe that America can continue to accept that there is nothing to be done about the carnage we endure month after bloody month. A good place to start might be the total repudiation of the Republican Party which is single-handedly enabling it through their fealty to the pernicious NRA. Perhaps the inevitable Trump implosion will help that along in which case, for the first time, he will have done his country a true service and saved lives with his talent for spectacular failure.

.

digby 6/16/2016 09:30:00 AM
 

No intelligent life

by Tom Sullivan


Sketch of a "spaceship" creating crop circles, sent to UK
Ministry of Defence circa 1998. via Wikimedia Commons.

"Writing about a Donald Trump speech is like trying to describe the whiplash," Jim Galloway wrote in the Atlanta Journal Constitution when Donald Trump visited Atlanta back in February. Trump was back again yesterday. George W. Bush was the U.S. president who thought Africa was a country. Now comes candidate Donald Trump who thinks Belgium is a city.

Trump: "Belgium is a beautiful city." Thank goodness for oceans. https://t.co/4oYS8LuMQp

— Andrew Stroehlein (@astroehlein) June 15, 2016

Andrew Stroehlein lives in Brussels.

Trump also thinks America's "nuclear is old and tired," but not Russia's.

Trump on Putin/Russia: "Our nuclear is old and tired and his nuclear is tippy top, from what I hear."

— Ashley Killough (@KilloughCNN) June 15, 2016

Trump also believes it costs the government $1 million every time we “turn on” one of our aircraft carriers.

All this from one Trump speech yesterday in Atlanta — a beautiful state, by the way.

Trump takes factoids he half heard on Sunday talk shows and regurgitates them in speeches as if they are truths he's gleaned through years of careful study and deliberation (which is for losers, believe me). Or he simply pulls stuff out of his ass and crowds cheer. He may not know what the hell he's talking about, but, like your average street tough, he's got attitude. In word jazz, coherence just gets in the way of the performance.

Make America Incoherent Again pic.twitter.com/VjXSq7Z2pk

— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) June 12, 2016

In the New York Times' Sunday Review, astrophysics professor Adam Frank reported on new data that suggest even with a healthy dose of skepticism, "a trillion civilizations still would have appeared over the course of cosmic history." He writes:

In other words, given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational.
Speaking of bordering on the irrational, it might still be early to count ours as one.


Undercover Blue 6/16/2016 06:00:00 AM

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

 
Mid-week Soother

by digby

Life is too horrible right now. So this is for you:

Hey BeiBei! Thai massage has got nothing on u! Upside down planking seems very relaxing! @houseofcubs #pandastory pic.twitter.com/G2IVCQQDIZ
— BooBooPanda (@BooBooPanduh) June 14, 2016


I felt a little bit better for a minute didn't you?

.
digby 6/15/2016 06:00:00 PM
 
Republicans need to shut up and do what he says

by digby





















Trump today, very frustrated with democracy:
The Republicans. Honestly folks. Our leaders. Our leaders have to get tougher. It's too tough to do it alone. But you know what? I think I'm going to be forced to. I think I'm going to be forced to.  
Our leaders have to get a lot tougher. And be quiet. Please be quiet. Don't talk. Please be quiet. Don't talk. Just be quiet. The leaders. Because they have to get tougher. They have to get sharper. They have to get smarter. 
We have to have our Republicans either stick together or let me just do it by myself. I'll do very well. 
Maybe he can have his right hand man Paul Manafort call up some of his Putin ally pals for some tips on how to deal with that little problem.




digby 6/15/2016 04:30:00 PM
 
Trump's vanguard

by digby

















Trump gave a very dark dystopian speech today at his Atlanta rally, pretty much saying that unless we do something very, very drastic about Muslims the country is going down.

"Everntually, it's not going to survive, just so you understand," Trump says of the United States.
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) June 15, 2016


He has some supporters who are articulating what they think is truly necessary. Talk show hosts are spelling out the proper response to this allegedly existential threat:

[A]fter declaring that the Orlando massacre represented God’s judgment on America, Rick Wiles said that the U.S. government should “outlaw Islam” and “confiscate Muslims.”

“The left is calling for gun control What we need is Muslim control. We don’t need to confiscate guns, we need to confiscate Muslims. You’re not going to solve this problem until you round up the Muslims and ship them out of this country. End of discussion. Outlaw Islam. Make it an illegal religion. Don’t tell me it can’t be done. Pass a constitutional amendment that says we’re a Christian nation and Islam is illegal. Done. Get rid of it. Stamp it out before it destroys civilization.”

“Anyone who is a practicing Muslim is mentally ill,” he added, before claiming that the U.S. government is bringing terrorists into the country. “We’re all going to die, gay and straight, left and right, Republican and Democrat, we’re all going to die if we don’t get this stopped really soon.”
.
digby 6/15/2016 03:00:00 PM
 
State of the race

by digby

New ABC News/Washington Post poll:



Seven in 10 Americans see Donald Trump unfavorably in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, up 10 points in just the past month to a new high since he announced his candidacy for president. But Hillary Clinton reached a new high for unfavorability as well, 55 percent.

The results mark the striking challenges facing both candidates, cementing their position as the two most unpopular presumptive major party nominees for president in ABC News/Washington Post polling dating to 1984.

Trump’s result reverses a boost he received after securing the Republican presidential nomination, from 37-60 percent favorable-unfavorable in mid-May to 29-70 percent now, after a week in which he took sharp criticism for suggesting that he was being treated unfairly by a federal judge because of the judge’s Mexican heritage.Results among other groups also are telling. Trump’s rated favorably just by 65 percent of Republicans, Clinton by 75 percent among Democrats -- neither monolithic in their home corner. Independents, often thought of as swing voters (though they don’t always perform that way) don’t like either -- 68 percent see Trump negatively; a similar 63 percent, Clinton.

Trump’s challenge is deeper, though, in terms of strength of sentiment as well as absolute numbers. Just 15 percent of Americans see him “strongly” favorably, while a record-tying 56 percent see him strongly unfavorably – a 41-point negative gap in intensity of sentiment. Clinton’s comparable numbers are 25-39 percent, a 14-point gap.

Looking at registered voters doesn’t change the equation. Trump’s at 31-69 percent favorable-unfavorable in this group, while Clinton’s at 43-56 percent.

Groups

Notably, men overall are disenchanted with both candidates -- a record 63 percent see Clinton unfavorably, while 62 percent say the same about Trump. Among women, by contrast, Trump is far more unpopular -- 77 percent rate him unfavorably, a new high on his part, vs. Clinton’s 47 percent.

Even more striking is Trump’s unfavorability rating among racial and ethnic minorities -- a virtually unanimous 94 percent of blacks see him negatively, as do 89 percent of Hispanics; that declines to 59 percent among whites. Clinton is more unpopular than Trump among whites -- 68 percent see her unfavorably -- but vastly more popular among nonwhites.

Indeed, their virtually even ratings among men conceal a sharp difference between white men, a much more pro-Trump and anti-Clinton group, and nonwhite men, the opposite, even more so.

Trump’s difficulties are further marked by the fact that he’s rated favorably by just 47 percent of conservatives. Clinton, for her part, is seen positively by 59 percent of liberals -- but that means four in 10 in this key Democratic group rate her negatively.

Despite losing young voters to Bernie Sanders by vast margins, there are only minor differences in Clinton’s favorability rating among age groups. The bigger gap is for Trump, rated 15 points more unfavorably by those under 50 (76 percent) than by those 50+ (62 percent).

digby 6/15/2016 01:30:00 PM
 
QOTD: Professor Trump

by digby

























Here's Professor Trump on Hannity last night sharing his vast sociological knowledge with the discerning Fox News audience:
Hannity: Here's a big broader question. If you grow up under Sharia law, and as a man, you think you have the right to tell a woman how to dress, whether she can drive a car, whether she can go to school or whether she can go to work, and she would need four male eyewitnesses for rape -- in some cases they don't even believe in marital rape. The question is: if you grow up there, you want to come to American how do we vet somebody's heart and ascertain if they're coming here for freedom or if they want to proselytize, indoctrinate and bring the theocracy with them?


Trump: Assimilation has been very hard. It's almost, I won't say nonexistent, but it gets to be pretty close. And I'm talking about second and third generation. They come, they don't --- or some reason there's no real assimilation.

Hannity: right ...

Trump: And you see it all over the place, And, you know, what are we going to do? I'm not even talking about assimilation. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about there is a percentage of people that want to do what this maniac did in Orlando. There's a percentage of people., That percentage becomes --- the number of people become more and more as we take in thousands and thousands of more people. There's a hate that's going on that's unbelievable, ok? Unbelievable. They don't mind dying. There's a hate that's going on that's unbelievable. And we allow it to happen.They use the the internet better than we do. ISIS is using the internet better than we do.

He seems smart.

If you have any doubts, read this.

*Hannity might want to rethink bringing up the marital rape thing. Just saying.

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digby 6/15/2016 12:00:00 PM
 
Trump destroying his own terrain

by digby






















I wrote about the implications of Trump's latest lunacy on the presidential race for Salon today:

It’s distasteful to launch back into writing about polls and political strategies even as scores of people are still in the hospital recovering from injuries sustained in Sunday’s terrorist attack but there’s no help for it. The atrocity in Orlando has offered up such a stark choice between the two presumptive presidential candidates and their respective parties that the subject cannot be avoided. The political fallout from this event (and God forbid any similar events between now and November) may very well affect the outcome and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

I have long suspected that barring any intervening economic catastrophes, this would end up being a national security election. The reason for this was two-fold. First, the Republicans believed this would be the more fertile ground for them once again now that there was some distance from the Bush administration’s Iraq debacle and they clearly planned to run the campaign on those issues. And secondly, a woman was likely running for president for the first time and despite everyone’s assumption that she is some kind of bloodthirsty Boudica, the fact is that there were some good reasons to worry that Americans would turn to the traditional party and the traditional (male) candidate if national security came front and center. It was entirely predictable that the Republicans would play “the man card” if they could find an opening.

The two primaries unfolded on separate tracks with the Democrats staging their debate on the economic field and the Republicans staging theirs on the Donald Trump white nationalist field. There were three frightening terrorist attacks during that period, in Paris, Brussels and San Bernardino which all the GOP contenders used to portray the president and Clinton as feckless weaklings at best and terrorist conspirators at worst. But Donald Trump to it to another level by calling for the banning of all Muslims coming to the US and the deportation of Syrian refugees who are already here. As he went on to win the nomination, polls showed that a vast majority of Republicans agreed with Trump on those policies. The question since then has been whether or not the general public would respond to his primitive chest beating and whether they would reject Clinton as being too weak to keep the nation safe.

Since the Orlando massacre, there have been a number of journalists making the assumption that the attack would inevitably benefit Donald Trump. A Politico piece from yesterday, for instance, conveys the conventional wisdom, with the headline “Clinton braces for fight on Trump's terrain:”
Hillary Clinton’s campaign knows a national conversation about terrorism will take place on Donald Trump’s terms. 
That’s why Clinton is matching the presumptive GOP nominee speech for speech, interview for interview and sound bite for sound bite in the wake of Sunday’s mass shooting in Orlando.
[...]
Trump already leads Clinton by 4 percentage points on the question of whom voters trust more to handle terrorism, according to Gallup. And many Democrats worry that his tough talk could resonate in the aftermath of a highly charged tragedy like Orlando.
That Gallup poll was taken before the attack. Yesterday’s Bloomberg numbersl show Clinton still with a disadvantage on the issue of terrorism despite taking a strong lead in the head-to-head matchup.

One might assume that women would be the ones to step up in this situation. After all, at this point close to two thirds say they could never vote for Trump. But this particular issue is complicated when it comes to women. Back in April of 2015 I analyzed an article by national security expert Heather Hurlburt in which she examined data about women voters’ attitudes about national security and it was somewhat alarming. She wrote:

Gender politics magnify the electoral effects of anxiety in two ways. First, in surveys and other studies, women consistently report higher levels of anxiety. In fact, women poll twice as anxious as men, largely independent of the specific topic. Women are more concerned about security, physical and economic, than men. According to Lake, Gotoff, and Ogren, women “across racial, educational, partisan, and ideological divides” have “heightened concerns” about terrorism. Those concerns make women “more security-conscious in general and more supportive of the military than they were in the past.”

Walmart-sponsored focus groups found women expressing a significant and steady level of anxiety over the months preceding the 2014 midterms. At one session, the explanation was Ebola; another, ISIS—whatever had most recently dominated cable-news headlines. The pollsters interpreted the responses as “emblematic of anxiety they feel regarding other issues, including national security, job security, and people ‘getting stuff they aren’t entitled to,’ such as health care and other government benefits.”

The majority of voters express equal confidence in men and women as leaders, but when national security is the issue, confidence in women’s leadership declines. In a Pew poll in January, 37 percent of the respondents said that men do better than women in dealing with national security, while 56 percent said gender makes no difference. That was an improvement from decades past, but sobering when compared to the 73 percent who say gender is irrelevant to leadership on economic issues.
I noted at the time that this would all depend upon the individuals involved but it showed that a national security campaign could cut in unexpected ways and that Clinton could be facing some headwinds even with Democratic women if that was the issue on which the election turned.

But as he has in every other way, Trump has scrambled the deck. His performance has been so ignorant and contemptible that it’s hard to believe that women who many be anxious about national security would be in any way consoled by the prospect of this cretinous know-nothing being in charge of ensuring the safety of our country. In fact, any anxious person listening to Donald Trump talk about terrorism would likely have an immediate panic attack.

It’s a political truism that “fear sells” which means that after a terrorist attack it might be expected to disadvantage the first woman candidate who also happens to be a Democrat, the party which has often been portrayed as weak on national security. But Donald Trump does nothing to assuage people’s fears --- he does the opposite. He scares people in a more fundamental way, worrying them that he’s going to make a terrible error in judgment and endanger the nation in ways they don’t want to contemplate. According to the latest Fox poll, taken just before Orlando, Trump’s most debilitating weaknesses as a candidate are that virtually nobody believes he has the temperament and the mental stability to be president, a belief which he has thoroughly validated over the past few days.That same poll showed that a large majority of both parties believe Clinton does have the requisite knowledge and disposition to be commander in chief.

Many people may not want to have beers with either one of these candidates but they seem to be able to get past the usual reflexive assumptions about Republicans and Democrats. This may be the election that finally shakes the country out of the absurd notion that bellicose, right wing fear-mongering will keep Americans safe. It has always done the opposite.
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digby 6/15/2016 09:30:00 AM

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