Illustration: John Spooner
There is nothing wrong with the occasional thought bubble, but when politicians attempt to dress their brain dumps up as "plans" they almost always run into trouble.
Take Greg Hunt, for example. This week the federal Environment Minister, who is now also responsible for the new Cities portfolio, declared that Melbourne is at a crossroads requiring a "new vision for the year 2200".
Hunt's 185-year blueprint appears to involve five definitive projects: upgrading the Monash Freeway by turning emergency lanes into an extra traffic lanes on the Hallam Bypass; the twin Melbourne Metro Rail tunnels; both sections of the East West Link; the "missing link" connecting EastLink to the Metropolitan Ring Road at Greensborough; putting the entire metropolitan train network underground; and expanding Melbourne's container trade-handling facilities to Hastings, Geelong and possibly Portland.
Greg Hunt wants to build the ‘‘missing link’’ connecting EastLink to the Metropolitan Ring Road at Greensborough. Photo: Jason South
As Hunt sees it, some of his vision, including extra lanes on the Monash, could be delivered relatively quickly; some of it, including putting Melbourne's rail network underground, is part of a long-term plan.
Hunt attempted to back his plan with various media interviews in which he accused the Andrews government of sitting on its hands and leaving motorists stuck in traffic by refusing to talk to the Commonwealth. "Dan [Andrews] has no plan, the Commonwealth does," Hunt said.
There is a lot wrong with Hunt's bluster. (As former premier Jeff Kennett put it in an opinion piece published in the Herald Sun on Thursday, he is treating the people of Victoria as "political mugs", crossing the line between what is deliverable and pure fantasy.)
The Monash Freeway in gridlock at South Yarra.
Hunt makes little mention of how his vision might be funded. This is a big question, given the extreme political difficulty we seem to have delivering infrastructure. The now defunct East West Link project, for example, would have cost about $17 billion for both sections.
The Metro Rail project is likely to end up costing at least $11 billion. Hunt's plan for a north-south "missing link" road, connecting EastLink to the Ring Road using a "major tunnel", would be likely to cost much more than $6 billion.
But the most expensive (and long-term) proposal of all would be to "underground" the urban rail network, an idea likely to cost at least $500 billion, according to one relatively conservative estimate.
Despite Hunt's rather shrill complaint that "Dan has no plan", he skates over the fact that until recently the federal government was utterly opposed to the idea of chipping in for Victoria's Metro Rail project, which is seen as vital to increase the capacity on the rail network.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is now promising that if projects stack up from a cost-benefit perspective, the Commonwealth will not be biased against them, unlike Tony Abbott, who refused to fund urban rail, only roads. Turnbull's rhetoric is encouraging, but it is still some way short of a funding commitment.
Hunt's suggestion that the Andrews government is sitting on its hands and has failed to meet Commonwealth representatives is factually wrong. There have been several meetings between state and federal ministers to discuss various projects, including the Metro Rail tunnel and Transurban's Western Distributor road proposal, which would act as an alternative to the West Gate Bridge.
Meanwhile, Hunt's plan to use emergency lanes on the Monash and use smarter technology to manage traffic might sound good in theory, but it is not clear whether it would be so simple. The idea is reportedly not unreasonable, and has been supported by Infrastructure Australia, but Hunt's claim that it could be done for $200 million is unrealistic, given the extra traffic management technology required. One estimate puts the cost of such a plan at $350 million.
Finally, and perhaps most problematic of all, is the apparent attempt by Hunt to once again politicise the debate about infrastructure in a way that seems reminiscent of the Abbott era. It is a backward step from Turnbull's encouraging promise to consider projects on their merit.
The fixation on the Monash is a case in point. The project would particularly benefit motorists travelling to and from the east, including the marginal Liberal-held seats of La Trobe and Aston. This is all very well.
And yet Hunt – who says he formulated his plan with state Opposition Leader Matthew Guy – seems to have paid little attention to the possibly more pressing need for a road in the west to take pressure off the badly overburdened West Gate Bridge, other than pointing out that the Coalition remains unwaveringly committed to the East West Link.
My guess is both Turnbull and Andrews have worked out just how thoroughly sick people are of hollow rhetoric and political brinkmanship when it comes to infrastructure funding. Indeed, according to Coalition sources, focus group research bears this out.
To be fair, Hunt himself acknowledges Turnbull's "new deal" for cities, including a willingness to back urban rail projects where they add to the fundamental productivity and wellbeing of our great cities. But more broadly, his first public foray into his new cities portfolio is sorely lacking.
It is a safe bet that funding announcements from the Commonwealth for the Metro Rail project and the Western Distributor are now not far off. Hunt has also created an expectation there will be money on offer for the Monash Freeway.
Where all this leaves Guy, who has clearly been busy working with Hunt, will be interesting to observe.
Josh Gordon is The Age's state political editor.
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