Welcome to
Capital Account. No matter the outcome of the
Greek election on Sunday, Monday will certainly be an interesting day for global markets. Many believe Sunday's elections will determine whether the nation remains in the Eurozone.
The political parties in
Greece have fallen into two categories: those in favor of the 240 billion euro bailout loan, tied to extreme austerity measures, and those against it.
Syriza, the party led by
Alexis Tsipras, is running on a staunch anti-austerity platform. He has stated publicly that he believes Greece will not be pushed out of the euro even if they break with the austerity measures tied to the bailout. He recently said "We have no sense that
European partners will follow this tactic of blackmail heard from some quarters and stop funding"
New Democracy leader
Antonis Samaras has campaigned on a platform to keep Greece in the eurozone, while walking a tightrope of promising fiscal adjustments to ease the pain associated with the memorandum.
On June 1st, the last date opinion polls were allowed to be publicized, New Democracy led with 22.7 percent, Syriza had 22 percent, and
Pasok had 11.2 percent.
(conducted by Metron
Analysis for Athens-based
ANT1 TV with a margin of
error 2.8 percent.
If there's no clear winner on Sunday, forming a coalition could again prove difficult. There are
300 seats in the legislature, and 151 seats are needed to form a government. If New Democracy gained enough seats, they could form a coalition with Pasok. However, if Syriza is victorious, the composition of any coalition headed by the left-wing party will be more difficult to form.
Now, looking at the larger social picture, the problems in Greece are broadly painted by the media as economic in nature, with the solutions always presented in a political framework.
Greeks, so the conventional wisdom goes, borrowed too much and lived beyond their means for too long, and now the time has come to pay the bill. Governments, therefore, must work together, alongside central banks, to "right the
Greek wrongs" and set Greece and the rest of the Eurozone on the path towards growth and prosperity.
But this ignores certain realities
....realities which are just as responsible for the riots we have seen as they are for the deposit flight from
Greek banks.
Whatever policy makers think they know about Greece, Greeks themselves know one thing very well, and this is that they cannot trust anyone, least of all their own politicians.
Pulling their savings out of the bank before they are confiscated or turned into devalued drachmas is only one example of this. Another can be seen in the collapse of investment within the
Greek economy. After all, who in their right mind would put time and capital to work in an economy whose future is so bleak under the current dynamics. And yet, this very collapse in investment feeds a further collapse in growth, so that the economy and the society remain in a perpetual, contractive freefall. If you were trying to design a depression, you couldn't do a better job than what is happening by force of circumstance in Greece today.
And yet, the simplest and most obvious solution, that of a unilateral default, is something that the
Greek people and especially their politicians have resisted. Why? Well, one reason is that the issue of
Euro membership is just as much, if not more, a political issue for Greece than it is an economic one. The days of the
Drachma were not a pretty time.
Inflation was rampant, and Greeks felt more isolated geopolitically than they do today.
Military spending and preparedness was of greater urgency given historical tensions with
Turkey, and relations with the rest of
Europe were less...familial shall we say. In short, breaking from the Euro is not a decision to be made through simple mathematical calculations. There are costs that cannot be factored in, and emotions that cannot be measured...not by any poll or any vote.
So, even with elections scheduled for this sunday in Greece, the future remains just as uncertain today as it was last week or last year. Even if the left-wing party Syriza gains power, no one knows if it will carry through with a default on the nation's debt or break with the memorandum and the austerity measures agreed to between the previous government, and its international lenders.
- published: 15 Jun 2012
- views: 12613