Demographic Transition : Is it a Boon or a Bane for Indian Development ? - Part 1 (11 Feb 2014)

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• published: 07 Mar 2014
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Abstract Some commentators argue that India's relatively young population or its 'demographic dividend' could be the source for its future economic growth. However, India's National Sample Survey reports, presents a less optimistic picture. It finds that the number of workers seeking better quality, non-agricultural jobs is rising rapidly in India -- due to the growing size of the working age population, its increasing shift away from agriculture, and with the improvements in education in rural areas. On the other hand, the generation of employment in the country has been far from adequate to meet this challenge. Informal sector jobs, mainly in construction, have been almost the only source of incremental employment in India's rural areas. India's high-technology industries are booming, but they form only a tiny island in the ocean in terms of employment. The number of 'missing women' in the Indian economy -- women who withdraw from the labour force and attend only to household work, possibly due to the absence of suitable employment opportunities -- was a staggering 216 million in 2009-10. Building a diversified manufacturing sector and enhancing expenditures on the social sectors would be crucial for India to derive greater benefits from its demographic transition. In this seminar, we aim to discuss these projection trends in India and find out if at all the demographic transition bares any calamity, or whether this will be exploited and turned into a boon. About the Speaker Jayan Jose Thomas is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Centre on Asia and Globalization, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering, and a PhD in Development Economics from the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai. His research has dealt with various aspects of Indian development, especially issues related to labour, industrialization and the macroeconomy. He is also keenly interested in comparing India's economic development experience with that of East Asia, and China in particular. He has worked extensively using Indian and international data sources, conducted field studies, and also worked with archival material. His research papers have appeared in journals including World Development, Development and Change and Economic and Political Weekly. He has previously held academic positions at the National University of Singapore, Indian Statistical Institute, Madras School of Economics, and Central University of Kerala. Jayan teaches courses on Macroeconomics, Indian Economy and International Economics.