Which way will Weibo go?

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• published: 16 Apr 2014
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http://goo.gl/hoqlcB Saxo Bank's Head of Equity Strategy, Peter Garnry, analyses Weibo's IPO. Often called the 'Chinese Twitter', the microblogging site has half a billion registered users and is a hotly anticipated IPO. The launch comes at a time when tech stocks have slumped, Chinese growth is slowing and Peter Garnry also believes the share valuation is overvalued: "Compared with other technology IPOs, this is actually a small offering in terms of valuation. But even so, it may still be too high given the company's current results and increased competition from WeChat." WeChat is an instant messaging app developed by Chinese tech giant Tencent. The app has grown rapidly to become the fifth more used app in the world. Ten cent is now valued, in terms of size, just a little under Facebook and Peter believes Tencent may be a better option: "This is just another reason why investors should go for Tencent instead of Weibo, especially given the current valuation. Another aspect is that the valuation reflects the strong sentiment in tech stocks just prior to the "mini-crash" in momentum and tech stocks. The bet by the underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, to keep the valuation high may prove to be too optimistic. In addition, foreign investors looking to buy into the Chinese internet growth story are all waiting for the Alibaba, which will soon file its S-1, and this may also cap investor interest in Weibo."