This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.
In the past two years, Vicente del Bosque has emphasised the concept of “smooth transition”. After Spain’s dismal attempt to defend their World Cup in Brazil, they have entered into a period of uncertainty and introspection not helped by a Euro 2016 qualifying campaign in which the football they have played has bordered on tedious and predictable. Strangely for a side that arrive in France looking to win a fourth European Championship title, they are surrounded by doubt.
Del Bosque talks about “transition”, but his message seems incomplete. Transition to where? There is an undeniable starting point: Spain must renew or die, but the manager has not yet defined how they must reinvent themselves.
During the triumphant years – Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012, lest we forget – Spain evolved from direct football to a more calculated and reserved game. Both styles came from the same possession-based idea, but with a different approach.
Even so, they were a competitive, secure and robust machine. Xavi Hernández and Xabi Alonso were the guardians of the style, but now Del Bosque no longer has those two screening generals. Can Spain play the same way without them? Del Bosque thinks so, but Spain seem to be playing like a team rooted in the past and the manager has found himself at a crossroads. Does he stick with the formula that worked so well and find new players to fill the roles or move away from the short passing and movement, the working the ball through the channels, maintaining possession at a calibrated pace that is very much in the blood of Spanish football?
Not only that, their game philosophy has become a key part of their national identity too: technical, precise, creative, intelligent, skilled players … their possession playing style has become a religion and midfielders are the preachers of that faith. But what midfielders can refine Del Bosque’s team game? Thiago and Cesc Fàbregas? Or maybe Atlético Madrid’s Koke?
The Atlético effect could lead to a possible path of reinvention. Del Bosque has never been a master tactician; his success has been built on his ability to manage a squad full of stars and to forge a strong team mentality at tournaments among players who know what they are capable of. This worked well for him in the successful years but is in danger of falling away now. He must show Brazil was a blip, not the beginning of a downward trend.
Doubts are everywhere. In goal, David de Gea, despite having established himself as a dominant force in the Premier League, has no guaranteed place yet because of the continued presence of Iker Casillas. On the other hand, key players such as Sergio Ramos, Fábregas and Pedro are worryingly out of form.
In addition, there’s the same old problem: the offensive system. Del Bosque has never really built a fluent and coherent attacking structure, and they have often played at their best without a striker (with Fàbregas playing as a false No9) or without pure wingers. Álvaro Morata has emerged as a solution better than Aritz Aduriz or Diego Costa, who did not even make the squad.
Apart from the inspirational Andrès Iniesta, it seems there are no players who can define a game single-handedly. But it would be wrong to focus only on Spain’s weaknesses, because clearly they have considerable strengths too. It is an experienced squad, highly competitive, and with a common goal. Spain abounds in talent.
It remains to be seen who will start in goal, the backbone of the team is clearly defined: Juanfran, Ramos, Gerard Piqué and Jordi Alba in defence, Sergio Busquets alongside Iniesta in midfield. David Silva and Fàbregas will be key figures too, wherever they start in the front six.
The rest of the starting XI depends on what formation Del Bosque chooses. He can go with 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 (maybe in reality a bit more 4-1-4-1), but in the recent friendly against England he used 4-4-2. Thiago and Koke will wait for that tactical decision. Whatever the personnel, be sure that this team will not forget its spirit – or its philosophy. Whether that is enough to win the tournament again remains to be seen.
Probable starting XI
Which Spain player is going to surprise everyone at the Euro 2016?
Álvaro Morata. The centre-forward position has been the most complex, even during Spain’s triumphant years. From the David Villa-Fernando Torres duo it has been downgraded into a lone striker and then even a false striker. In a gameplan dictated by midfielders, the choice of a No9 has become harder, yet no less important. Since he left Real Madrid in the summer of 2014, Morata has grown in Italy as a supporting striker who can also play as a left-winger for Juventus. He is a clever player, with remarkable dribbling skills and is physically up to the challenge of holding the ball up when he needs to. This comprehensive profile fits with what Spain need in that position, but the feeling persists that Morata is not an intimidating striker in the mould of a Raúl or Diego Costa. His goalscoring rates are not that high and this is his weak point. On the other hand, he seems to have developed something of a big-game mentality at Juve, and shone in their run to the 2015 Champions League final. He came off the bench to win the Coppa Italia in the last game of the domestic season this year with a strike that will have given him plenty of confidence.
Which player is likely to disappoint?
Spain know only too well that kings can lose their crowns, and that could be what now happens to Iker Casillas. It seems his time as an elite goalkeeper has come to an end. It is a scenario that recalls the one facing the then manager Luís Aragonés in 2006, and deciding that Raúl’s time was up, putting the common good of the team above an individual reputation. Del Bosque now faces a similar dilemma: promote De Gea, after another spellbinding season with Manchester United, or continue with Casillas? The legend of the latter is undeniable: 166 caps, two European Championship winner’s medals and a World Cup too. However, Casillas has lost the magic that made him one of the best goalkeepers in the history of the game, and his decline seems to be continuing at Porto after his demeaning exit from the Bernabéu. There were many who felt he should have stepped down with others after the embarrassment of Brazil 2014: this time the choice may not be his.
What is the realistic aim for Spain at the Euro 2016 and why?
A difficult question. For the first time in the last six years, Spain are not heavily favoured to win the tournament. The way they played in qualifying – including a defeat against Slovakia – the poor level they have often exhibited in friendlies against bigger teams, and their lack of goals are inviting us all to be pessimistic. However, this lack of expectation could also be an advantage. They will have to face tough opponents during the group phase, but if they come through, then expect them to sharpen their claws. Nobody should underestimate them – their status as holders should be evidence enough of that.
• Chema R Bravo writes for Panenka magazine in Spain
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