Croatia Euro 2016 team guide: tactics, key players and expert predictions

This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.

Almost all of Croatia’s ideal XI is well known, but their manager’s propensity to tinker extensively from one strategy to another offers little reassurance that he knows what he’s doing.

Ante Cacic inherited the 4-2-3-1 formation and the 4-4-2 midfield diamond as a back-up plan from his predecessor, Niko Kovac. However, he has experimented with a flat 4-4-2 as well as with 3-5-2. Going into the tournament, we still have little idea of what his primary choice will be.

The sensible thing to do would be to build a team around the world-class playmaker axis of Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic, but Cacic doesn’t have a genuine holding midfielder to provide defensive balance and a safety net for them.

Instead, Internazionale’s Marcelo Brozovic – a dynamic box-to-box midfielder with lungs of steel but not a typical, aggressive ball-winner – should be used to complement them if the manager opts for a triangle in the middle. That means a more advanced role for Modric, who has been known to organise play from as deep as the edge of Croatia’s penalty box. But it also means the bench for his Real Madrid team-mate, Mateo Kovacic.

Monaco’s Danijel Subasic is untouchable in goal. A back three wouldn’t make much sense given the personnel, although that doesn’t necessarily mean Cacic won’t try it. But assuming he doesn’t, Lokomotiv Moscow’s Vedran Corluka and Dynamo Kiev’s Domagoj Vida should be the starting pair of centre-backs, especially as Cacic has fallen out with Dejan Lovren and has not taken him to the Euros. Of the two, Corluka is better and more technical, while Vida is more aggressive and dynamic. The captain, Darijo Srna, of Shakhtar Donetsk is set to start on the right, although Sassuolo’s Sime Vrsaljko would be a better choice. Ivan Strinic doesn’t play much for Napoli, but he’s the only natural left-back in the squad; Cacic might play Vrsaljko there, though.

Provided the manager sticks with the 4-2-3-1, Internazionale’s Ivan Perisic and Dinamo Zagreb’s Marko Pjaca are sure starters on the right and left-wings respectively. The former has been Croatia’s best performer since the 2014 World Cup, while the latter is a new force: both are speedy, skilful and can make a difference in one-on-one situations.

Up front, the Juventus workhorse Mario Mandzukic is still first choice, despite scoring only one of Croatia’s 20 goals in the qualifiers and despite his style not fitting that well with the rest of the team. Alternatives are Fiorentina’s Nikola Kalinic and Leicester City’s Andrej Kramaric, who spent the second half of last season on loan to Hoffenheim and has now agreed a permanent move to the club.

If, however, Cacic decides on 4-4-2 or even 3-5-2, the changes he will make are just about anyone’s guess.

Probable starting XI

Facebook Twitter Pinterest

Which Croatia player will take everyone by surprise at Euro 2016?

Marko Pjaca. As the only likely starter still playing in the domestic league, the Dinamo Zagreb winger, 21, is an unknown quantity to most football fans. This should be his breakthrough on the international scene, before you see him strutting his stuff at one of the big European clubs. Direct, fast and strong, he’s everything you want from a modern winger and has bags of confidence to prove it.

Which player could be a disappointment?

At 34, the soon-to-be retired captain Darijo Srna is not the player of some years ago, when he charged down the right flank like there was no tomorrow and still managed to close gaps in defence. He doesn’t do either of those things that well anymore and has kept his starter status due to past reputation alone. Srna’s growing weaknesses are due to be exposed in France.

How far do you think your team will go and why?

I’m very pessimistic and fear that they might not even get past the group stage, which would be a disaster for a team with so much individual talent. Too much is just not right – not least the manager, who might be out of his depth and has done little so far to prove otherwise. He doesn’t appear to have the players’ trust, so things might turn ugly if we lose the opening game against Turkey.

Aleksandar Holiga writes for Telegram.

Follow him here on Twitter.

Click here for a profile of Croatia’s Ivan Perisic.