Terry Collins looked tired Wednesday morning, before the Mets and White Sox engaged in a marathon left-on-base contest.
After the Mets lost the 13-inning, 2-1 matinee at Citi Field — a memorable trip around the bases by White Sox reliever Matt Albers sealing the deal — the Mets manager’s exasperation could be summarized in six words: “Thirteen walks. Seven singles. One RBI.”
The Mets will hit the one-third milepost of the 2016 season Saturday in Miami, the first stop in a three-city road trip, and so far, their offensive production can best be described as weird. They lead the National League in home runs (73). They rank 13th in runs scored (195).
They are, in short, the living embodiment of the common, small-ball-loving cry: “They’re too dependent on home runs!”
Collins, old-school to his core, echoed that sentiment Wednesday afternoon, saying, “Every team talks about situational hitting. Every team talks about two-strike approaches. And they’re talked about. They are hammered. Now they’ve got to be applied. That’s where the mental side of the game takes over.”
Yet Collins’ guys don’t necessarily require a total overhaul in their offensive approach. They might benefit from a mere tune-up. Their best role model among recent National League champions is none other than the 2015 Mets.
Heading into Thursday’s action, the Mets led all of Major League Baseball with 55.9 percent of their runs coming from home runs (thanks, Elias Sports Bureau). Of the top five homer-heavy clubs through Wednesday, four — the Mets, Mariners (51.5 percent), Orioles (48.5) and Blue Jays (46.6) held winning records. Only the Rays (52.2) sat under .500. The Mets, Mariners and Orioles all would qualify for the postseason had the season ended Wednesday.
Nevertheless, if you’re looking to win the postseason, as the Mets certainly desire, you’re statistically better off having a better-rounded offense. The last team to lead the NL in home runs and win a playoff round was the 2009 Phillies. Three of the NL pennant winners from 2011 through 2014 ranked higher in on-base percentage than in home runs. The fourth, the 2014 Giants, placed seventh in both categories.
The 2010 Giants ranked sixth in home runs (162) and ninth in OBP (.321), and that particular imbalance didn’t repeat itself until last year, when the Mets reached the World Series while ranking fourth in home runs (177) and tying for 10th in OBP (.312).
The 2015 Mets scored 39.7 percent of their runs on homers, slotting them 10th in MLB. From Aug. 1 (Yoenis Cespedes’ Mets debut) onward, however, they tallied 45 percent of their runs by going deep. In other words, the offensive wave they rode into the playoffs — they scored the NL’s most runs in both August (168) and September/October (150), which we know thanks to Baseball-Reference.com — resulted largely from a power surge.
It seemed Sandy Alderson (who didn’t return an email for comment), in re-signing the free agent Cespedes and acquiring Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera to replace double-play combination Daniel Murphy and Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores, had put together a similar offense to the one that lost to the Royals last October. The early read is they’re hitting even more homers and getting on base even less. Their .308 OBP puts them in 11th place.
A return to 2015 form for Curtis Granderson (he looked better during the just-completed homestand) and an eventual return to good health for Lucas Duda (stress fracture in lower back) would help greatly, as would an improvement with runners in scoring position. At .210/.295/.348, the Mets are better than only the Phillies in clutch OPS; hence Collins’ concise lament Wednesday. Last year, they sported a .252/.344/.393 slash line with runners in scoring position, fifth-best in the NL.
These Mets needn’t turn into the 1982 Cardinals. They proved last year their recipe can work. Right now, they could use just a little spice to mix into their punch.
