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A BRITISH politician, Enoch Powell, once remarked that all political careers end in failure. Richard Nixon may have reached the White House but later, as he looked back on his life, his reputation lay in ruins. Margaret Thatcher may have vanquished all her opponents but eventually they forced her out. Powell was right in part because the politicians’ promises are always so lavish they can never be kept.
Gen Musharraf was bound to fail the moment he promised to rid the country of corrupt politicians and to introduce ‘true’ democracy instead — whatever that is. He was vowing to accomplish more than he could deliver. And when, inevitably, he failed, the people wanted him to go. And even if Gen Musharraf has found it difficult to accept the popular verdict, the army learnt that those who hold power are held responsible for what happens.
Having taken that lesson on board, the post-Musharraf military adopted a new, subtler tactic. It decided to exercise power in all crucial areas while simultaneously allowing civilian rulers to hold office. Traditionally, the policy areas reserved for the army included the nuclear weapons programme and relations with the key foreign powers: India, Afghanistan and the United States. In the last few years, the list has expanded considerably. The establishment of apex committees, military courts and the military’s use of coercion to force the media onto the back foot means there is scarcely an area of public policy that the army is not seeking to influence or control.
You might think that it is an approach that has few downsides for the military. While they make the decisions, the civilians absorb the unpopularity that comes with the failure to deliver.
But there is a problem. The taste for power is insatiable. Its acquisition leads to the desire for more. It’s all a question of trends. The relationship between the civilians and the army is not static. Either the army is in the ascendant or the civilians are. It is not a stable situation in which the status quo can be sustained over a long period of time.
The taste for power is insatiable. Its acquisition leads to the desire for more.
There are always so many reasons for the military to persuade itself that it needs more power. Take the media. From the army’s point of view, Pakistan’s journalists should produce articles that show the country in a good light. And they should never criticise the army.
Journalists who challenge authority and focus attention on difficult social issues are being negative and unpatriotic. And yet despite all the pressure from the army some writers persist in delivering ‘negative’ articles. And for some in the security establishment that is intolerable.
And then there are the corrupt politicians. As far as the army is concerned the old deal, whereby the politicians gave in to every military budget request and in return were allowed to fill their boots with loot, should no longer apply. The army wants to change the terms of that deal so that the politicians continue to give in to military demands but stop making the money.
Which brings us to Nawaz Sharif’s hospital bed in West London. Before the prime minister’s medical crisis the military’s calculation went like this: if Raheel Sharif does not get an extension then the gains made under his tenure might be lost. Without his personal authority to keep the government in check, it could be a case of back to business as usual with corrupt politicians providing weak, ineffective central government and the army’s power on a downward trend.
And the situation, as the army sees it, is urgent because over the next few months Raheel Sharif will inevitably became weaker. Whether it is President Obama, David Cameron or Gen Sharif, it is an iron rule of politics that outgoing leaders become lame ducks. Their power slips away the moment colleagues and rivals start looking ahead to what will happen after the leader has gone. And again, in the Pakistani context, that would set trends over the next few months that the army would find hard to tolerate.
It is possible that Nawaz Sharif’s medical difficulties could help calm the situation down. What more could the army ask for than a physically weakened prime minister? But there is another way of looking at it.
As each civilian government reaches its mid term the generals start casting around for a mechanism by which they can remove it. In the past the president would have been prevailed upon to force the prime minister out. With that option not available it has not been clear how the army should go about the business of removing Nawaz Sharif and putting someone more amenable in his place.
Until he became ill, that is. Because what easier argument could there be than it is inappropriate to have Pakistan governed from a sick bed?
The writer is a British journalist and author of Pakistan: Eye of the Storm.
Published in Dawn, June 2nd, 2016
Comments (67)
A very candid write up close to the ground reality. This is a common talk is Pakistan and has long been debated without any conclusions. Pakistan lacks power centers. The entire power is converged on the army.
The need is to have multiple power centers like Public with the acuity of choosing right leaders; Politicians (the law makers) with a long term vision ; Bureaucracy with the ability of good governance and Judiciary with the power to exercise independently. Only then a good check and balance could be maintained.
Kudos to Dawn for publishing this long due article. While this might be obvious for anyone outside, masses need to realise the folly of a security state policy. People need to realise that however bad politicians are, they cant be worse than the other options. Most importantly people need to realise, politicians need time to mature to achieve the democracy they cry for.
Military decides crucial policies, Politicians take the flak. Guns, bombs and terrorists will decide the fate of Pakistan. Interest and welfare of citizens not on any priority list.
the parliament and the army are two crucial organs of Pakistan. yet whilst they pit energies against each other, there is no way that the country can ever focus on real issues. the people of pakistan have been fooled by their leaders time and again. we sometimes back the military against corrupt politicians (forgetting the role the military plays in destabilization), and sometimes (for very very brief periods) we back rule of law against dictatorship and military interventionists.
we must learn that the road to a democratic system is long, tedious and full of ups and downs. we must live past the current politicians, choosing the best from the lot, ensuring that our vote creates a slow but gradual difference.
if we keep opening doors for the army, attempting shortcuts, we only delay/ derail the process of creating strong institutions.
Dont lets be fooled again. There are no shortcut in life. No dharna or military take over can save Pakistan. Only continuity and stability can help.
A very well written article that is as close to the facts on the ground as there can be. I firmly believe that the army chief is not going to lose any control, power or leverage over his own organisation and especially over the civilian government because after being ousted twice before from the highest public office, our prime minister knows that an army chief is an army chief until he retires.
The role of the media that is the electronic media especially the part of the media that is backed by the military intelligence agencies and of those anchors that wish to see the military step in for their own personal agendas and vendettas should be watched closely in the coming days. If there is possibly a campaign launched against the resignation of the p.m of pakistan with the zeal with which the sit-ins and protests of imran khan and the pti were broadcast on national television then we should not be surprised by wi0hich institution is fighting for supremacy.
Brave article from Owen Bennett Jones and Dawn.
Absolute gem of an article. I hope the supporters of army will read it and understand what is obvious to outsiders.
As the old adage goes, 'there cannot be two kings in one kingdom.'
What ever he realities are until unless we dont get good quality n patriotic politicians . Pakistan is not going to progress . This new army tactics have brought politicians in lime light . Good enough n keep it up .
Beautifully Summed Up by a foreigner.We can always blame and Abuse Politicians but at least they leave power once there term expires.Generals seems to be lacking the ability to accept Retirement.....
"Journalists who challenge authority and focus attention on difficult social issues are being negative and unpatriotic."
The problem with this statement is that most of these so called journalist ONLY writes about the negative aspects and will try to find short comings within Pakistan. You dont have to be a rocket scientist to look at the history of the articles written by these individuals. And then again, there is a serious question mark over who is sponsoring these people from forigen lands as part of propaganda warfare.
@Simla - The answer to that is in the first comment published above.
This is what the world knows and yet Pakistanis do not accept it. As long as the Army calls the shots, Pakistan will be what Pakistan is (with or without China).
Too much focus on army and too little focus on political government. Politicians incompetence is the cause of the mess, no one throws away one;s power or influence, one needs to acquire it with competence and deliverance...!
Since the 1958 coup d'état by field martial muhammad Ayub khan , our generals has got the sweet taste and lust of power. this lust for power is not diminishing too soon, especially more than thirty years of direct ruling. Now they have adopted a new, subtler tactic to control from back seat. No wander this power struggle between civilian and military junta has destablized the country, for so long that there is such a discord between different remaining federating units of the counrty afterdisastrous debacle of 1971 when on fedrating unit has decided enough is enough. I hope they come to there senses before it is too late.
There is an important factor being overlooked -the president is Nawaz's trusted chum. He will protect nawaz at all cost
Western journalists make comments for their reasons.Our media anchors and journalists have affiliations, the history of the Kangro courts are before us.the think tanks work on copy- paste principles,Army only thinks of itself,bureaucrats are the second generation of Lord Mountbatten.Politicians are the most cunning creatures in this scenario .collectively they all make a single ellite class.they don't have any slightest connection with the ordinary Pakistani society .their way of living ,thinking ,their attitudes everything is completely different from the rest of Pakistani society .This is only the tussle between different groups of elites.
The shadow of army in Pakistan on capital Islamabad is so long, that it can be seen from Indian border.
An important note for the readers that i always call it a civilian government, and use the word resident Pakistan. In my view these are the right terminologies to be used and we should stop cheating ourselves. I am yet see democratic values are honoured. We are residents of Pakistan since we have no rights which, a citizen should have. Simple as that.
I read Pakistani newspapers because there is always something interesting going on. Most other countries are boring by comparison. When you read Pakistani news, you experience the full range of human emotions.
I admire your courage to lay out the scenario so clearly. We need true democracy and independent civilian government along with the rule of law. World's largest armies (US, India, and others) never influence, but serve the civilian governments.
@abdulrauf akhtar Army does not want-Good quality anyone. Good means honest. Honest ones ask questions army does not like.
Some selected persons from Pakistan giving unwanted comments on PM is a proof that there is a conspiracy to oust elected PM.
@Irad You will seet it on whole india :)
@noman Democracy? our elected leader have never deliver democracy. We always get a democratically elected dictator.
@imtiaz Well said Sir.
@Asif Ahmed - I agree with you, but none of the power centers include army in it. The three balancing power centers of any successful democracy, no matter how you look at it, are Legislative (the elected ones), the judicial (justice system) and the Executive (either President or PM, depending upon the type of democracy) with veto power. The army supposed to report to Legislative and the executive. In the case of Pakistan the army has created a separate power center through many of the past coups, some of which were very violent, to overtake the executive center. Until that stops Pakistani democracy will be a complete failure and Pakistani citizens will continue to suffer. The burden of removal of corruption lies with the people and none of these three power centers I have described above.
Very true article.
An original thinker. Accurate analysis.
@Irad
Evan the shadows may reach far beyond Indian border.
Another Meesaq Jamhooriat should be signed with all the main political parties of the country be signatories. If the political parties will continue to cross the red line against a democratic government, army will continue its control which is not good for the democratic system
I am suspicious about the people discouraging Pakistanis for democracy. Why can't we close the chapter of military intervene to strengthen democracy. Accountability is issue of Pakistanis and they know well how and when it should be resolved. Democratic forces should help civilian governments to curb the mentality of martialism.
Good article. I think part of the problem is the constant regression of PK. In absolute terms but mostly in relative terms. Relative to who? You know who and this relative regression IMO makes the military very insecure. Part of me says the democratic system is so rigged because I find unfathomable that Pk would vote for looters over and over and over again. Part of me also says that PK would be content and deserve an honest politician that works his heart off. Someone like Modi.The only person that seems honest not self centred is IK. It also will take someone who can revolutionize PK. The culture of laziness, corruption, VIP and always blaming US and India for its failures must end.
I see very educated and realistic readers commenting on this subject favorably. I hope those misguided take some clue to this article and do not join the bandwagon of those who all the time insist Army rule is better than democratically elected officials. They must realize Freedom is their birthright not armymight.
it will take hundreds of years for pakistan to have democracy like uk or usa ,
Very good and brave article published by Dawn...having said that the situation in Pakistan is very strange instead of competing in the world markets the civil and military are competing each other to control the power game...
The equation is simple.....if the army is to be kept out, the politicians HAVE to deliver......and they have failed and failed miserably. To say otherwise is simply self deception.
no big deals
What is mentioned in this article is already well known to rest of the world. Still a good one depicting the real state of affairs in Pakistan!
Good! Why not? After all, Nawaz is popularly elected.
Very nice article.
Pakistani democracy has failed. The last two tenures of Zardari's peoples party and Sharif's Noon league have been miserable. The term of good governance could not be seen in the last two political regimes. The best is that Sharif should resign himself and give way for change. There should be government of technocrats for some times until the economy could come on track. OBJ can not judge the politics and politicians of this country. He is watching the things through real democratic glasses where as that sort of stuff is no where in Pakistan since long long times. There should be complete clean up of corrupt politicians and the Chief justice of supreme court should play its role to secure the future of nation.
@Kabir Democracy doesn't necessarily mean freedom. Not at least in Pakistan. In Pakistan votes are casted on cast (or bratheri) system and not merit. That's why we have stooges like Sharif Bros and Bhuttos/Zardari ruling Pakistan.
This Article is right on time
@Secular Pathan , What is so Brave about it? The Pakistani Talk Shows are full of this nonsense .
The Military is getting all they want plus "Thank you Gen. Sahib" from all and Nawaz is getting blames for anything bad in Pakistan.
I think the military Knows how bad they left the country after the last time they ruled. The military personals were not supposed to go out in the uniform.
So, Things will remain same until Nawaz convicted of any financial wrongdoing ( which should happen along with many others)
If you like it or not the military rule is popular with the masses. It is the corrupt civil government that has always ruined the country and not ruled.
Constant meddling by the army has left the political institutions very weak to non-existence. Unlike army there is no training academy for politicians. Democratic credentials of politicians are questionable as most have no clue about workings of democracy. Every time army intervenes the democratic learning process is reversed. Army must stay in barracks if people need to be empowered.
A bold and honesty reality of Pakistan politics.
The writer failed to mention the inadequacies of Politicians,
@SKS - "Most importantly people need to realise, politicians need time to mature to achieve the democracy they cry for." SO, what you are suggesting is that politicians like the Sharifs need 50 years to mature as they have been governing in one form or the other for over 25 years now.
there is no democracy in political parties themselves.look they are grooming their own children.they donot allow any other person in the throne
Great write up
@OZ Where can you find good leaders? Leadership, good or bad reflects the citizenry. If you think the leadership is bad, there is no need to go too far to find a good one or worse, keep despairing or blaming others. Please look within. Then there won't be dearth of good leaders or equally good followers (who are future leaders).
You can't blame the army for all this mess. When you have got politicians who are corrupt to the core and who rule like running a kingdom and not a democracy and all their interests are self centered on the cost of the country's loss then the powerful army has all the reasons to grasp powers. The politicians wish all the power and want the army to stay subordinate but do not act like ones who should have this right. The masses of the country have always celebrated military take overs in this country even if they know that military regimes would be equally corrupt. Nawaz Sharif, if he considers himself a man, should declare early elections already when he returns from UK and that will close all doors for the military to change any regime but no he considers it his kingdom and wants to run it like a king. One must not forget that had military not taken decision making in their hands, Karachi, Balochistan and Fata would still be burning.
During the past few months the General has been building himself up as the de facto ruler of the country. He has been frequently visiting China, and China may find it convenient to run Pakistan through a military dictator. Will be unfortunate, if such a take-over were to come about.
The author may have a few valid points but one should not forget the fact that if there is no check by the army, these corrupt politicians will loot and sell Pakistan in less than a day.
The article beautifully summarizes Pakistan's polity. Kudos to author.
Phone call to Modi before surgery makes it very clear Nawaz's intentions, seems he wish to have good relations with India and that's the correct thing to do, but civilian govt has little say when it comes to dealing with India.
A great article with perfect insight and analysis of the dichotomy existing between the civil and military establishment. General Sharif has achieved outstanding results in establishing overall peace in the country and no doubt the civil government, despite its so many flaws and weaknesses especially in rampant corruption at every level, does take credit for that as obviously the institution of armed forces is not outside the apparatus of the government. Gen. Sharif, for what has been attained under his command, is idolized and surely deserves all accolades. But, I believe despite his immense popularity, he would not misadventure for power grab as history of his predecessors is before his eyes. The best thing for him and country would be to retire timely and as quite a few have expressed here democracy takes time to flourish and evolve. Military intervention is no solution to problems that Pakistan has suffered in terms of terrorism, corruption, nepotism and shaky foreign policy.
@noman you can have this kind of sham democracy for next 100 years, we will be governed by same people unless masses understand and don't vote for thana / ketchary politics and bradaris.
@Ifti It was a genrals vision 50m years ago due to which CPEC is is in existence. Do enlighten me politicians vision for Pakistan
If not now, when? If not him, than who? He has been abusing power for a long time, and running the country as a family enterprise, without any accountability to anyone. This is a shame democracy.
The Military needs to clean the house for once.
@Asif Ahmed the bottom line is..only a God feared man or a Real God guided man will make a God feared /God guided nation..even if we set aside god guidance we don't not even have a minimum moral line.we can go to any extent. We have gone through a transition, a tipping point where our culture and tradition values have changed..how we bring about a change. It is a vast subject. The only thing I can suggest would be through big guns...unfortunately they are corrupt as well cos they are the part of our system as well. Secondly ...All over Pakistan, from the popular culture to the propaganda system, there is constant pressure to make people feel that they are helpless, that they have no role in country merely a number. If we want to be vibrant country a true liberty .. we have to liberate the masses mentally and physically...
The trouble is that politicians don't do themselves any favours by not providing even the very basic level of proper governance. They become obsessed with prolonging their dominance and pay scant attention to good governance, fairness and rule of law. Ordinary people have no choice but to start looking at the military to provide a bit of counterbalance and keep politicians on some sort of leash. Just look at the present government and how it has nourished nepotism and cronyism. They seem daft enough to think that no one is taking any notice of their antics.
Accountability is the essence of democracy. No prime minister of Pakistan has been able to bring Army and apex courts budgets to the Parliament for discussion. Then how could you ensure financial proprietary measures in the system. Our powerful institutions do not want this.
I think this article written by Owen, fails to consider the huge flaws within the civilian government and failure of democracy.
We can all see very clearly the failure, corruption and looting of the civil leadership which has repeatedly failed on every front and left the army to fill in the gaps in governance.
From elections, terrorism attacks, floods, IDPs and mega projects (CPEC).. the Pak army has been key to the solution whilst the civilian government has been no where to be seen except for photo ops.
lets get the facts right...sadly Pakistan does not have a proper democracy.. its a feudal dictatorship that has been more anti-democratic through its limits on press freedom, oppression and killing of political opposition than previous military governments.
All power centers are corrupted and work inefficiently.
Those singing for democracy are deluded.. its a huge failure and threat to Pakistan's future.
Fundamental revision of civil governance is needed.
I think the army is fully aware of challenges ahead. Their role must be partial in Civilian affair until the true democracy values are pertained in the political system. The way Modi wave blew in India in pre election, Similarly the army is awaiting for same whistle gets blown by public to overthrow the present political rheotric democratic setup.