- published: 24 Jan 2013
- views: 188260
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Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy.
Thanks a bunch to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson
this video is posted with simulation on Khan Academy:
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full table of contents on CriticalThinkerAcademy.com.
Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds.
This course focuses on the MEANING of probability, how to understand the different things that people mean, or what scientists or mathematicians mean, when they use expressions like "the odds of getting a 2 on a dice roll is 1/6", or "the probability of precipitation is 60%", or "the probability of the atom decaying in one hour is 50%".
There are, in fact, several different views of how such language should be interpreted. Becoming familiar with these views will help you to think more clearly and critically about situations where probability concepts arise.
Table of Contents:
Part 1: Introduction
1.1 Probability: Why Learn This Stuff?
1.2 What is Inductive Logic?
1.3 Probability as a Mathematical Object vs. What That Object Represents
Part 2: Interpretations of The Concept of Probability
2.1 Classical Probability
2.2 Logical Probability
2.3 Frequency Interpretations
2.4 Subjective Probability
2.5 Propensity Interpretations
- published: 20 Jun 2011
- views: 42481
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand.
Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning.
Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journalism, when everything's going the way it should. Bayes draws the line between rational and irrational. For many reasons, we can never know anything for sure. Once we accept that, Bayes is our best route to knowledge.
- published: 29 Jan 2012
- views: 168739
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics.
If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm
This video was produced by Ben Lambert at Ox educ; a not for profit enterprise set up by Oxford University students. If you would like to know more, please visit http://www.ox-educ.com.
- published: 25 Jul 2014
- views: 13119
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum.
Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain of events that may have led up to that event.
You might have to pause the video in places since there is a lot of math squeezed into 9 minutes.
I'm happy to answer specific questions if you put them in the comments. If you need more help, I offer tutoring over Skype!
- published: 26 Oct 2011
- views: 236587
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us move from an unconditional probability (what are the odds the economy will grow?) to a conditional probability (given new evidence, what are the odds the economy will grow?) For more financial risk management videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com!
- published: 09 Jan 2008
- views: 133623
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening.
A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it is), mammograms are actually less reliable than the numbers I used! Pretty amazing to me... *
- published: 03 Jan 2013
- views: 83538
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy.
Wizard of Odds explores the slippery side of probability and the powerful role it plays in modern life. This program features Robert C. Green, Leonard Mlodinow, Masoud Mohseni, and Alan Peters.
Original program date: Saturday, May 30, 2015
Learn more about this program: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/programs/wizards-odds/
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from WSF.
Visit our Website: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/
Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/worldsciencefestival
Instagram: @worldscifest
Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/WorldSciFest
- published: 27 Oct 2015
- views: 3520
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Bayes' Rule is derived from the general rule for conditional probabilities, plus the law of total probability. I work through two sample calculations to give an idea of how can be applied to solve problems.
- published: 28 Dec 2011
- views: 47649
Bayesian probability is one of the different interpretations of the concept of probability and belongs to the category of evidential probabilities. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of logic that enables reasoning with propositions whose truth or falsity is uncertain. To evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies some prior probability, which is then updated in the light of new, relevant data.
The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures and formulae to perform this calculation. Bayesian probability interprets the concept of probability as "an abstract concept, a quantity that we assign theoretically, for the purpose of representing a state of knowledge, or that we calculate from previously assigned probabilities," in contrast to interpreting it as a frequency or "propensity" of some phenomenon.
The term "Bayesian" refers to the 18th century mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes, who provided the first mathematical treatment of a non-trivial problem of Bayesian inference. Nevertheless, it was the French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace, who pioneered and popularised what is now called Bayesian probability.
This page contains text from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability
This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License, which means that you can copy and modify it as long as the entire work (including additions) remains under this license.
This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License, which means that you can copy and modify it as long as the entire work (including additions) remains under this license.
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5:06Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy. Thanks a bunch to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson this video is posted with simulation on Khan Academy: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized -
19:43What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full table of contents on CriticalThinkerAcademy.com. Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds. This course focuses on the MEANING of probability, how to understand the different things that people mean, or what scientists or mathematicians mean, when they use expressions like "the odds of getting a 2 on a dice roll is 1/6", or "the probability of precipitation is 60%", or "the probability of the atom decaying in one hour is 50%". There are, in fact, several different views of how such language should be interpreted. Becoming familiar with these views will help you to think more clearly and critically about situations where probability concepts arise. Table of Contents: Part 1: Introduction 1.1 Probability: Why Learn This Stuff? 1.2 What is Inductive Logic? 1.3 Probability as a Mathematical Object vs. What That Object Represents Part 2: Interpretations of The Concept of Probability 2.1 Classical Probability 2.2 Logical Probability 2.3 Frequency Interpretations 2.4 Subjective Probability 2.5 Propensity Interpretations -
6:06Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - IntroductionBayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand. Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning. Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journalism, when everything's going the way it should. Bayes draws the line between rational and irrational. For many reasons, we can never know anything for sure. Once we accept that, Bayes is our best route to knowledge. -
5:32Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics. If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm This video was produced by Ben Lambert at Ox educ; a not for profit enterprise set up by Oxford University students. If you would like to know more, please visit http://www.ox-educ.com. -
7:27Bayes probability
Bayes probabilityBayes probability
simple tree method for Bayesian probability -
9:20Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're FiveBayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum. Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain of events that may have led up to that event. You might have to pause the video in places since there is a lot of math squeezed into 9 minutes. I'm happy to answer specific questions if you put them in the comments. If you need more help, I offer tutoring over Skype! -
6:39FRM: Bayes' Formula
FRM: Bayes' FormulaFRM: Bayes' Formula
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us move from an unconditional probability (what are the odds the economy will grow?) to a conditional probability (given new evidence, what are the odds the economy will grow?) For more financial risk management videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com! -
9:55Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer ScreeningBayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening. A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it is), mammograms are actually less reliable than the numbers I used! Pretty amazing to me... * -
5:48Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy. Wizard of Odds explores the slippery side of probability and the powerful role it plays in modern life. This program features Robert C. Green, Leonard Mlodinow, Masoud Mohseni, and Alan Peters. Original program date: Saturday, May 30, 2015 Learn more about this program: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/programs/wizards-odds/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from WSF. Visit our Website: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/ Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/worldsciencefestival Instagram: @worldscifest Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/WorldSciFest -
7:20An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
An Introduction to Bayes' RuleAn Introduction to Bayes' Rule
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Bayes' Rule is derived from the general rule for conditional probabilities, plus the law of total probability. I work through two sample calculations to give an idea of how can be applied to solve problems.
- AFM Smith
- Anders Hald
- Aristotle
- Bas van Fraassen
- Bayes factor
- Bayes' rule
- Bayes' theorem
- Bayesian estimator
- Bayesian inference
- Bayesian network
- Bayesian probability
- Bayesian statistics
- Bernoulli trial
- Beta distribution
- Bookmaker
- Bruno de Finetti
- Celestial mechanics
- Colin Howson
- Conjugate prior
- Cox's theorem
- Credible interval
- Cromwell's rule
- Data
- De Finetti's game
- De Finetti's theorem
- Decision theory
- Double blind
- Duke University
- Dutch book
- Edwin Jaynes
- Expected utility
- Falsifiability
- Francis Bacon
- Frank P. Ramsey
- Frequentist
- Functional equations
- Google Books
- Haar measure
- Harold Jeffreys
- Hyperparameter
- Hyperprior
- Hypothesis
- Hypothesis test
- Ian Hacking
- Inductive reasoning
- Inverse probability
- John Maynard Keynes
- John von Neumann
- Joseph Jastrow
- José-Miguel Bernardo
- JSTOR
- Jurisprudence
- Karl Popper
- Likelihood function
- Logic
- Machine learning
- Martin Shubik
- Mathematical Reviews
- Morris DeGroot
- Nuisance parameter
- Optimal decision
- Oskar Morgenstern
- Patrick Suppes
- Peter Gärdenfors
- Peter J. Bickel
- Pierre-Simon Laplace
- Pragmatic philosophy
- Prior probability
- Probability
- Proposition
- Propositional logic
- Richard C. Jeffrey
- Salt and Light
- Sidney Siegel
- Statistical model
- Stephen Stigler
- Thomas Bayes
- Uncertainty
- Well-posed problem
-
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy. Thanks a bunch to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson this video is posted with simulation on Khan Academy: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized -
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full table of contents on CriticalThinkerAcademy.com. Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds. This course focuses on the MEANING of probability, how to understand the different things that people mean, or what scientists or mathematicians mean, when they use expressions like "the odds of getting a 2 on a dice roll is 1/6", or "the probability of precipitation is 60%", or "the probability of the atom decaying in one hour is 50%". There are, in fact, several differen... -
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand. Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning. Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journa... -
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics. If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm This video was produced by Ben Lambert at Ox educ; a not for profit enterprise set up by Oxford University students. If you would like to know more, please visit http://www.ox-educ.com. -
Bayes probability
simple tree method for Bayesian probability -
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum. Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain of events that may have led up to that event. You might have to pause the video in places since there is a lot of math squeezed into 9 minutes. I'm happy to answer specific questions if you put them in the comments. If you need more help, I offer tutoring over Skype! -
FRM: Bayes' Formula
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us move from an unconditional probability (what are the odds the economy will grow?) to a conditional probability (given new evidence, what are the odds the economy will grow?) For more financial risk management videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com! -
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening. A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it is), mammograms are actually less reliable than the numbers I used! Pretty amazing to me... * -
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy. Wizard of Odds explores the slippery side of probability and the powerful role it plays in modern life. This program features Robert C. Green, Leonard Mlodinow, Masoud Mohseni, and Alan Peters. Original program date: Saturday, May 30, 2015 Learn more about this program: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/programs/wizards-odds/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from WSF. Visit our Website: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/ Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/worldsciencefestival Instagram: @worldscifest Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/WorldSciFest -
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Bayes' Rule is derived from the general rule for conditional probabilities, plus the law of total probability. I work through two sample calculations to give an idea of how can be applied to solve problems.
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 5:06
- Updated: 24 Jan 2013
- views: 188260
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy.
Thanks a bunch ...
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy.
Thanks a bunch to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson
this video is posted with simulation on Khan Academy:
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized
wn.com/Conditional Probability Explained Visually (Bayes Theorem Formula)
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. This famous formula is constructed using a tree analogy.
Thanks a bunch to Kalid Azad for reviewing this lesson
this video is posted with simulation on Khan Academy:
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized
- published: 24 Jan 2013
- views: 188260
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 19:43
- Updated: 20 Jun 2011
- views: 42481
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full tabl...
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full table of contents on CriticalThinkerAcademy.com.
Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds.
This course focuses on the MEANING of probability, how to understand the different things that people mean, or what scientists or mathematicians mean, when they use expressions like "the odds of getting a 2 on a dice roll is 1/6", or "the probability of precipitation is 60%", or "the probability of the atom decaying in one hour is 50%".
There are, in fact, several different views of how such language should be interpreted. Becoming familiar with these views will help you to think more clearly and critically about situations where probability concepts arise.
Table of Contents:
Part 1: Introduction
1.1 Probability: Why Learn This Stuff?
1.2 What is Inductive Logic?
1.3 Probability as a Mathematical Object vs. What That Object Represents
Part 2: Interpretations of The Concept of Probability
2.1 Classical Probability
2.2 Logical Probability
2.3 Frequency Interpretations
2.4 Subjective Probability
2.5 Propensity Interpretations
wn.com/What Is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course titled "What is Probability?". Click the link above to see the full table of contents on CriticalThinkerAcademy.com.
Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds.
This course focuses on the MEANING of probability, how to understand the different things that people mean, or what scientists or mathematicians mean, when they use expressions like "the odds of getting a 2 on a dice roll is 1/6", or "the probability of precipitation is 60%", or "the probability of the atom decaying in one hour is 50%".
There are, in fact, several different views of how such language should be interpreted. Becoming familiar with these views will help you to think more clearly and critically about situations where probability concepts arise.
Table of Contents:
Part 1: Introduction
1.1 Probability: Why Learn This Stuff?
1.2 What is Inductive Logic?
1.3 Probability as a Mathematical Object vs. What That Object Represents
Part 2: Interpretations of The Concept of Probability
2.1 Classical Probability
2.2 Logical Probability
2.3 Frequency Interpretations
2.4 Subjective Probability
2.5 Propensity Interpretations
- published: 20 Jun 2011
- views: 42481
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 6:06
- Updated: 29 Jan 2012
- views: 168739
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a ...
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand.
Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning.
Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journalism, when everything's going the way it should. Bayes draws the line between rational and irrational. For many reasons, we can never know anything for sure. Once we accept that, Bayes is our best route to knowledge.
wn.com/Bayes' Theorem For Everyone 01 Introduction
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand.
Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning.
Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journalism, when everything's going the way it should. Bayes draws the line between rational and irrational. For many reasons, we can never know anything for sure. Once we accept that, Bayes is our best route to knowledge.
- published: 29 Jan 2012
- views: 168739
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 5:32
- Updated: 25 Jul 2014
- views: 13119
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics.
If you are interested in seeing more of t...
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics.
If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm
This video was produced by Ben Lambert at Ox educ; a not for profit enterprise set up by Oxford University students. If you would like to know more, please visit http://www.ox-educ.com.
wn.com/Bayesian Vs Frequentist Statistics Probability Part 1
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classical frequentist statistics.
If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm
This video was produced by Ben Lambert at Ox educ; a not for profit enterprise set up by Oxford University students. If you would like to know more, please visit http://www.ox-educ.com.
- published: 25 Jul 2014
- views: 13119
Bayes probability
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 7:27
- Updated: 16 Nov 2009
- views: 48109
simple tree method for Bayesian probability
simple tree method for Bayesian probability
wn.com/Bayes Probability
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 9:20
- Updated: 26 Oct 2011
- views: 236587
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum.
Bayes' Theorem allow...
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum.
Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain of events that may have led up to that event.
You might have to pause the video in places since there is a lot of math squeezed into 9 minutes.
I'm happy to answer specific questions if you put them in the comments. If you need more help, I offer tutoring over Skype!
wn.com/Bayes' Theorem Explained Like You're Five
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum.
Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain of events that may have led up to that event.
You might have to pause the video in places since there is a lot of math squeezed into 9 minutes.
I'm happy to answer specific questions if you put them in the comments. If you need more help, I offer tutoring over Skype!
- published: 26 Oct 2011
- views: 236587
FRM: Bayes' Formula
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 6:39
- Updated: 09 Jan 2008
- views: 133623
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us mo...
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us move from an unconditional probability (what are the odds the economy will grow?) to a conditional probability (given new evidence, what are the odds the economy will grow?) For more financial risk management videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com!
wn.com/Frm Bayes' Formula
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set) given new, relevant information. Formally, Bayes' Theorem helps us move from an unconditional probability (what are the odds the economy will grow?) to a conditional probability (given new evidence, what are the odds the economy will grow?) For more financial risk management videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com!
- published: 09 Jan 2008
- views: 133623
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 9:55
- Updated: 03 Jan 2013
- views: 83538
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening.
A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it...
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening.
A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it is), mammograms are actually less reliable than the numbers I used! Pretty amazing to me... *
wn.com/Bayes' Theorem And Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening.
A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in action. ** According to some data I found online (not sure how accurate it is), mammograms are actually less reliable than the numbers I used! Pretty amazing to me... *
- published: 03 Jan 2013
- views: 83538
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 5:48
- Updated: 27 Oct 2015
- views: 3520
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy.
Wizard of...
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy.
Wizard of Odds explores the slippery side of probability and the powerful role it plays in modern life. This program features Robert C. Green, Leonard Mlodinow, Masoud Mohseni, and Alan Peters.
Original program date: Saturday, May 30, 2015
Learn more about this program: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/programs/wizards-odds/
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from WSF.
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wn.com/Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing conditional probability but The Frequentists didn’t make it easy.
Wizard of Odds explores the slippery side of probability and the powerful role it plays in modern life. This program features Robert C. Green, Leonard Mlodinow, Masoud Mohseni, and Alan Peters.
Original program date: Saturday, May 30, 2015
Learn more about this program: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/programs/wizards-odds/
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from WSF.
Visit our Website: http://www.worldsciencefestival.com/
Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/worldsciencefestival
Instagram: @worldscifest
Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/WorldSciFest
- published: 27 Oct 2015
- views: 3520
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
- Order: Reorder
- Duration: 7:20
- Updated: 28 Dec 2011
- views: 47649
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Ba...
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Bayes' Rule is derived from the general rule for conditional probabilities, plus the law of total probability. I work through two sample calculations to give an idea of how can be applied to solve problems.
wn.com/An Introduction To Bayes' Rule
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course on the Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities. This video shows how Bayes' Rule is derived from the general rule for conditional probabilities, plus the law of total probability. I work through two sample calculations to give an idea of how can be applied to solve problems.
- published: 28 Dec 2011
- views: 47649
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5:06
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
Visualize why evidence alters our confidence of prior events leading to Bayes theorem. Thi...
published: 24 Jan 2013
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes Theorem formula)
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- published: 24 Jan 2013
- views: 188260
19:43
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course ti...
published: 20 Jun 2011
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?
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- published: 20 Jun 2011
- views: 42481
6:06
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding ...
published: 29 Jan 2012
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction
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- published: 29 Jan 2012
- views: 168739
5:32
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
This video provides an intuitive explanation of the difference between Bayesian and classi...
published: 25 Jul 2014
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - part 1
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- published: 25 Jul 2014
- views: 13119
7:27
Bayes probability
simple tree method for Bayesian probability
published: 16 Nov 2009
Bayes probability
Bayes probability
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- published: 16 Nov 2009
- views: 48109
9:20
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Th...
published: 26 Oct 2011
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five
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- published: 26 Oct 2011
- views: 236587
6:39
FRM: Bayes' Formula
Bayes' Theorem formulas an intuitive idea: we adjust our perspective (the probability set)...
published: 09 Jan 2008
FRM: Bayes' Formula
FRM: Bayes' Formula
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- published: 09 Jan 2008
- views: 133623
9:55
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening.
A very real life example of Bayes' Theorem in actio...
published: 03 Jan 2013
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening
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- published: 03 Jan 2013
- views: 83538
5:48
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Probability has an improbable history. Thomas Bayes deserves credit for introducing condit...
published: 27 Oct 2015
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Theorem But Were Afraid To Ask.
- Report rights infringement
- published: 27 Oct 2015
- views: 3520
7:20
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
http://www.criticalthinkeracademy.com
This is a sample video from my tutorial course ...
published: 28 Dec 2011
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule
- Report rights infringement
- published: 28 Dec 2011
- views: 47649
Conditional probability explained visually (Bayes ...
What is Subjective (Bayesian) Probability?...
Bayes' Theorem for Everyone 01 - Introduction...
Bayesian vs frequentist statistics probability - p...
Bayes probability...
Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five...
FRM: Bayes' Formula...
Bayes' Theorem and Cancer Screening...
Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Bayes' Th...
An Introduction to Bayes' Rule...
photo: Creative Commons / livepict
Musician David Byrne Pens Stinging Gun-Control Essay Aimed At US
Edit WorldNews.com 24 Jun 2016
Former Talking Heads frontman David Byrne join a growing list of public figures and artists confronting the growing gun control crisis in the US this week by penning an impassioned plea in an essay in support of firearms restrictions, Billboard reported.Less than two weeks after the massacre at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Fla., Byrne wrote, “We ware [sic] are ware here,” in an essay entitled “Guns Are About Freedom....
photo: Creative Commons / Qfl
Archaeologists Find Skeletons, Gold Coins In Buried Pompeii Shop
Edit WorldNews.com 24 Jun 2016
In the workshop was an oven that archaeologists think might have been used to make bronze objects.The excavation of that and a second ancient shop started in May near a necropolis in the Herculaneum port area. Archaeologists are puzzling over what kind of business the second shop did ... tomb of an adult, complete with funerary vases ... Pompeii and nearby Herculaneum were ancient Roman towns....
photo: AP / Kirsty Wigglesworth
Brexit: David Cameron resigns as prime minister
Edit The Irish Times 24 Jun 2016
David Cameron has resigned as British prime minister following the failure of his Remain side to win the referendum on staying in the EU. Mr Cameron called the vote on Brexit in 2013 under pressure from the anti-EU wing of his Conservative Party and Ukip, hoping to end decades of debate over the UK’s ties with Europe ... With a turnout of 72.2 per cent, 51.9 per cent voted to leave; 48.1 per cent voted to remain ... Irish government reaction....
photo: AP / Yves Logghe
Investigators: China Still Harvesting Human Organs on Huge Scale
Edit Voa News 24 Jun 2016
In 2006, Canadian human rights lawyer David Matas and former Canadian Asia-Pacific Secretary of State David Kilgour began an investigation into accusations of the Chinese government's role in harvesting the organs of Falun Gong practitioners. Their published findings, "Bloody Harvest ... We don't give a specific figure but we can say it is much larger than the 10,000 a year — at minimum 60,000 a year and probably more than that." ... ....
photo: Creative Commons / Michael Vadon
Trump applauds decisions by British people to bolt EU
Edit Austin American Statesman 24 Jun 2016
Donald Trump is saluting the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, saying "they took back their country, it's a great thing." ... ....
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Evolutionary ‘probables’ a positive step (Rice University)
Edit Public Technologies 17 May 2016
New work from Rice computer scientist Luay Nakhleh, graduate student Dingqiao Wen and postdoctoral researcher Yun Yu adds a Bayesian inference component to the Nakhleh lab's long-running development of PhyloNet ... Bayesian inference is a statistics-based method to estimate probabilities based on a data set ... Now methods based on maximum likelihood are giving way to Bayesian probability (named for 18th-century statistician Thomas Bayes)....
New research estimates probability of mega-earthquake in the Aleutians (University of Hawai?i at Manoa)
Edit Public Technologies 14 May 2016
A team of researchers from UH Mānoa published a study this week that estimated the probability of a Magnitude 9+ earthquake in the Aleutian Islands - an event with sufficient power to create a mega-tsunami especially threatening to Hawai'i ... Templeton (2016), Bayesian Probabilities for Mw 9.0+ Earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands from a Regionally Scaled Global Rate....
Twelve professors receive Romnes Faculty Fellowships (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Edit Public Technologies 05 May 2016
(Source. University of Wisconsin-Madison). Twelve promising young members of the UW-Madison faculty have been honored with Romnes Faculty Fellowships. Romnes awards recognize exceptional faculty members who have earned tenure within the last six years ... The award is named for the late H. I ... King and P.L.E ... Michael Titelbaum, associate professor of philosophy, uses Bayesian probability mathematics to study how evidence supports hypotheses....
Sir David MacKay obituary
Edit The Guardian 18 Apr 2016
In appearance, Dasher resembles a video game ... As a mathematician, David’s expertise on Bayesian probability theory led to his dramatic intervention to help right a notorious miscarriage of justice, when the solicitor Sally Clark was wrongly imprisoned in 1999 after being accused of murdering her two babies ... He recalculated the probability and proved that Clark was far more likely to be innocent than guilty ... “Please don’t get me wrong ... ....
Science: Building Human-like Learning in Machines (AAAS - American Association for the Advancement of Science) ...
Edit Public Technologies 21 Dec 2015
(Source. AAAS - American Association for the Advancement of Science) ... The gap between machine and human learning remains vast and we want to close it.' ... They researchers call their modeling scheme the Bayesian program learning framework, or BPL. It works by representing individual concepts as simple computer programs. 'Learning' under this scheme is a search for the best program under a scoring system based on Bayesian probability ... (noodl....
RiskLens Releases Next-Generation Third Party Risk Assessment Solution Up to 10 times faster assessments of third party risk management practices than customary checklists
Edit PR Newswire 13 Oct 2015
SPOKANE, Wash. and RESTON, Va., Oct ... Moving beyond ineffective checklists ... ... Furthermore, the structure of the ontology defines the relationships between each of the questions and Bayesian probability tables define their relative effect. As a result, an organization no longer has to rely solely on the subjective judgment of their information security personnel to interpret the results ... Advanced reporting ... Vendor portal ... ... ....
Which Came First, Feelings, or the Brain?
Edit Huffington Post 02 Jun 2015
As strange as Deepak's assertion may appear to some, I believe it is likely to be scientifically correct. Darwin's theory of 'natural selection' is taken to imply (e.g ... Newton says ... Mr ... The audience buzzed ... Within this general view are approaches such as 'integrated information', 'global workspace', 'predictive coding', 'scale-invariance', 'Bayesian probabilities', 'pre-frontal feedback', 'coherent volleys' and 'synchronous oscillations'....
Game theory drives Greek finance minister in duel with creditors
Edit South China Morning Post 28 Feb 2015
Game Theory ... The heavy algebra and probability theory completely went over my head. Still, even if you skip the maths and graphs, it's fun to read for the most part, minus the stuff about ordinal and cardinal utilities, Bayesian probability and backward induction, things which no-one cares about except specialists ... The pages on Kant now look especially relevant ... right ... It probably sounds better to be a follower of Kant than Richard Nixon....
Darktrace CEO Joins Prime Minister David Cameron on Official Cyber Security Visit to Washington D.C. Innovative British Cyber Defense Company Accelerates Expansion with US Headquarters
Edit PR Newswire 16 Jan 2015
As cyber threat analysts, they will rely on Darktrace's machine learning and Bayesian probability theory developed by researchers located in Cambridge, England, to protect customers against serious cyber threats ... System technology, a new category of cyber solutions based on pioneering Bayesian mathematics developed at the University of Cambridge....
What Babies Can Tell Us About Artificial Intelligence>
Edit Huffington Post 16 Jan 2015
They may outwit the chess Grandmaster Kasparov, but can machines ever be as smart as a three-year-old?. "Instead of trying to produce a program to simulate the adult mind, why not rather try to produce one which simulates the child's?" Alan Turing, 1950 ... Turing's intelligence test ... Learning has been at the center of the new revival of AI ... Introducing Bayesian probability theory into the learning process has been particularly important....
Top Ten Books On Geopolitics (BCA Research Inc)
Edit noodls 22 Nov 2014
(Source. BCA Research Inc). A number of clients and colleagues have asked me for a recommended reading list on "geopolitics." This is the "top ten" list. Geopolitics, as a discipline or social science, does not exist ... Heuer (2005) ... Another methodology book. Silver shows the value of Bayesian probability modeling (crucial for thinking about investment-relevant forecasts), but also cautions against an overreliance on quantification and data....
Nate Silver Develops Films to Demystify Data on ESPN Site
Edit Bloomberg 20 Oct 2014
Nate Silver, who founded the stats-oriented news site FiveThirtyEight for sports and political junkies, is expanding video production with short films that aim to demystify data for a wider audience. The first, “The Man Vs ... 22 ... “Video is an important form of storytelling.” ... In 2013, Walt Disney Co ... “Gold Hunters” features a team of explorers using a branch of statistics called Bayesian Probability Theory to search for hidden treasure....
TG4010 TIME Phase 2b trial ESMO 2014 Congress poster available here (Transgene SA)
Edit noodls 04 Oct 2014
A previous study showed that a normal baseline level of Triple Positive Activated Lymphocytes (TrPAL, CD16+CD56+CD69+) might be a predictive biomarker PFS in Normal TrPAL patients- Bayesian Analysis ... This corresponds to a 98.6% Bayesian probability that the true HR is <1, passing the threshold of 95% needed to consider the endpoint met in patients with normal TrPAL ... • Bayesian probability that TG4010 improves PFS....
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