July 1998

Colombia, one of Latin America’s oldest democracies, is still one of the region’s most violent countries where guerrilla movements are hand in glove with drug traffickers. But the country’s newly-elected conservative government may provide the catalyst for a new nation-wide drive for peace.
As night falls, several dozen men suddenly appear in a village, wearing combat fatigues and armed to the teeth. They summon the inhabitants into the village square and then, working from prepared lists, (...)

After conducting aerial manoeuvres over Albania and Macedonia in mid-June, NATO is now considering whether to make good its threats of military intervention in Kosovo. The Atlantic Alliance was a creation of the cold war, and the internal disagreements among its members prove it is having a tough time formulating a consistent strategy for the new world order. The time has come for the countries of Europe to establish a continental system of preventive security independent of the United States.

The crisis in Kosovo has come at a bad time for Albania’s socialist government which regained power a year ago: the troubles are being exploited by the anti-communist opposition and there is also the question of the Kosovar refugees. Prime Minister Fatos Nano has also failed to tackle the problems of law and order, economic recovery and democracy. And the government has come under fire even from within its own ranks on the issue of corruption.

What seemed impossible a few years ago is now happening. Japan is faltering. According to Tony Blair, this is the greatest threat to the world economy for twenty years. The whole of East Asia is now being dragged into recession and financial turmoil which could engulf the entire globe. In their desire to restructure forms of capitalism they considered “archaic” and not sufficiently “open” or deregulated, the West’s neoliberal gurus have not only brought down economies they once praised to the skies, but are destroying the cohesion of Asian societies. Without anticipating the consequences of a social backlash that could prove the gloomy prophets of a clash of civilisations right.

In August 1998 General Ismail Hakki Karadayi comes to the end of his term as chief of staff of Turkey’s armed forces. His five years in this post have been marked by the increasing role played by military officers in all aspects of Turkey’s political life, from the Kurdish question to relations with Greece and the ongoing struggle against the Islamists. There has also been a state-sponsored growth of mafia activities related to the drugs trade and many murders of opposition politicians and civil rights campaigners.

The war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which by mid-June had claimed nearly a thousand lives, has taken everyone by surprise. It is not an ethnic, religious or tribal conflict or a power struggle but, rather, an old-fashioned border dispute. American attempts to mediate have been spectacularly unsuccessful and the situation is worrying neighbouring countries and destabilising the whole region.

Over a year after the overthrow of the dictatorship in Zaire, it is clear that the country (now renamed Congo) is still facing many of the same problems. The most immediate is the threat of ethnic and military unrest in the two eastern provinces, North Kivu and South Kivu. These were the scene of the 1996 uprising that signalled the beginning of the end for President Mobutu. Despite all the speeches about conflict prevention, the crisis is not unexpected.

Despite the nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan, proliferation of nuclear weapons will remain relatively limited in years to come. States may however be tempted, particularly in areas of conflict, to develop other weapons of mass destruction: chemical and especially biological weapons, which are less costly and easier to conceal. The various international treaties do not provide adequate control measures. They need to be substantially amended and extended to non-governmental organisations as well as states. America points the finger at pariah states such as Iraq but the greatest threat to our future does not necessarily come from states.

Despite the nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan, proliferation of nuclear weapons will remain relatively limited in years to come. States may however be tempted, particularly in areas of conflict, to develop other weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical and especially biological weapons, which are less costly and easier to conceal. The various international treaties do not provide adequate control measures: the greatest threat to our future is now “bioterrorism”.

With Algeria consumed by civil war and Morocco going through a difficult transition, Tunisia looks like an oasis of stability. Yet, in spite of appearances, General Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali has been responsible for the systematic repression of Islamists. Speeches about women and their emancipation, and reformist measures continuing the work of Habib Bourguiba, are an attempt to project an image of modernity and democracy abroad, but they hide another part of the picture.

Will the war for water be the next major conflict? As consumption increases and reserves fall dramatically, countries are having to re-evaluate their assets and future development in terms of their reserves of “blue gold”, and apply contractual disciplines to the way in which rivers are shared out in a vast Middle Eastern market. However, there is considerable scope for imaginative thinking in order to increase the region’s supply of water - and simultaneously promote peace.

Prisons in the “free world” are full to bursting point, and fullest of all are US jails. Over the past twenty years, exacerbated by ever increasing inequalities, preoccupation with the virtues of law and order has led to a toughening of penalties. Worst hit have been those excluded from the “American dream”. The US is constantly tightening its social welfare budget, but its generosity knows no bounds when it comes to controlling and incarcerating those whom it has deigned neither to educate and care for, nor provide with housing and an adequate diet. “Realism” and “combating insecurity” are the reasons cited by those who now call for “an eye for an eye” in an attempt to justify criminalising the poor. This US model is now taking hold internationally, and in some countries in Europe it even seems to be attracting a number of leaders on the left - despite the fact that prison is not the only method of punishment.

Flying in the face of international criticism, on 21 June the Israeli government sanctioned a plan which is a de facto enlargement of the municipality of Jerusalem to reach Israeli localities situated to the west of the city and settlements in the West Bank. This decision marks a new stage in Israel’s policy of annexation of the Holy City and totally violates both the spirit and the letter of the Oslo accords. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s intransigence is made possible by the apparent inability of the United States to exert meaningful pressure on its Israeli ally. It is now time for Europe to come to the aid of a peace process that is seriously under threat.