February 1997

There are periods in history when the power of a single state, following the defeat or disintegration of its main rivals, reaches over the whole of the known world. Since the sixteenth century three powers - Spain, France and Britain - have taken it in turn to dominate the world militarily, economically and - up to a point - culturally.
The real rise of the British empire dates from Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815 and lasted for another century until mounting German ambitions led to (...)

In both Sudan and Zaire guerrilla movements are confronting dying regimes. If they win, they will threaten the balance of power and geostrategic interests of the major powers. In Zaire, a government counter-offensive backed up by mercenaries is having some success. But the Islamist government in Sudan is facing an alliance between its political opponents in the north, insurgents in the south and neighbouring states who object to interference from Khartoum.

Has democratisation come to a halt in South Korea? President Kim Young Sam’s authoritarian response to student demonstrations in August 1996 and new labour laws introduced at the end of the year make this an open question.

The death of Kim Il Sung and the handover to his son, Kim Jong Il, has added to the difficulties of the regime, already faced with an end to Chinese and Soviet aid and struck by serious flooding. North Korea is not on the verge of collapse but its leadership is divided over the path it should take. The pragmatists want to open up their economy like the Chinese, but the hardliners are blocking all reforms. By using food as a weapon against Pyongyang, the United States risks driving the regime into a corner and harming prospects for a peaceful transition.

The UK economic model, with its excellent macro-economic indices and its disintegrating society, is meeting with growing opposition elsewhere in the world. Workers in South Korea staged protests this January and are now demanding greater democracy.

The new order that the United States has imposed on the Middle East is coming to look more and more like the old one: unstable and unjust.

Prospects for national reconciliation seem more distant than ever. Israel’s Grapes of Wrath intervention in 1996 was a setback to Lebanon’s recovery from long years of civil war. But Syria’s ongoing control of the country is the major obstacle to national rebuilding.

Having taken over from Franz Vranitzky as head of Austria’s government on 18 January, Victor Klima now has to decide how to deal with the rising influence of Jörg Haider, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and whether to seek a political accommodation with him. The FPÖ now enjoys 28% of the national vote and is the largest “national populist” party in the West. Despite a pronounced streak of racism tinged with anti-intellectualism, the party has succeeded in pulling in a number of noted intellectuals, including the anti-conformist Jewish writer Peter Sichrovsky.

In the Erfurt declaration this January German intellectuals accused Chancellor Helmut Kohl of waging a cold war against the social state - confirmation that the model imposed on the new Länder by unification was in crisis. The East Germans have lived under both systems and can compare them. Many feel that some aspects of the socialist experiment are worth retaining, and former opponents of the GDR are in the front ranks of the protesters.

The future of the Maghreb hangs on the outcome of the struggle being waged in Algeria between the ruling military junta and the various armed Islamist groups. In recent weeks the violence, which the authorities in Algiers call “residual terrorism”, took a spectacular turn for the worse. During the month of Ramadan the everyday tragedies of the civil war escalated into a frenzy of throat slitting and car bombing.

The new surge of violence can be partly explained by the rejection (confirmed by President Liamine Zeroual on 24 January) of a political settlement based on the document produced by the Rome meeting of the combined opposition in January 1995, known as the Sant’Egidio platform. It can also be attributed to the government’s policy of continued repression. Not for the first time, a valuable opportunity was allowed to slip away after the November 1995 presidential election, which gave General Zeroual a measure of legitimacy and showed the people’s attachment to peace. Yet the military junta intensified the formation of “civil defence militias”. This privatisation of the war has accelerated the disintegration of society. Inevitably, personal actions by the armed groups have led to reprisals and vendettas. No prisoners are taken on either side. The situation has become so confused that recent car bombs in the pro-Islamist working-class areas of Algiers have been attributed to the security forces.

Although Washington does not rule out the possibility of an eventual Islamist victory, the western powers are still backing the junta. With their loans and investments they are financing the escalation of the “dirty war” and the arrangements for next spring’s legislative elections. These could give rise to a new blood bath.

The UK’s much-vaunted competitiveness is attracting international business and lauded by the OECD. But British films give a clearer picture of the realities of British life.

The United States’ embargo always created difficulties for the Cuban economy but the Helms-Burton Act made things worse, especially since the European countries have also been harassing the Castro regime. Paradoxically, Havana is seeking to put an end to its isolation through rapprochement with the Vatican and the local Catholic church.

Sovereign countries have conceded power to a handful of private rating agencies which assess the solvency of all the players on the markets. A poor rating can be costly, a favourable one negotiated. This system does not need to have the final say: plenty of economists are suggesting ways of restoring autonomy to countries and exercising control over the workings of finance. But their proposals have come up against a wall of silence.

In July 1996, a US Federal court ruled in Motorola v NBA (National Basketball Association) that the NBA should have exclusive rights to broadcast the results of matches as they came in. The ruling, which was the subject of an appeal, highlights the current threats to freedom of information. The conference on intellectual property held in Geneva in December took a step in the wrong direction, towards the privatisation of all data available on-line through the new technologies, and in particular the Internet.