Queensland Labor’s lessons for state politics

Why is Labor’s era in Queensland coming to an end? The short answer is that Queensland is a naturally conservative state. I argue that different states may have a natural propensity to support Labor or the Coalition, levels of unionization, manufacturing employment, educational levels and ethnic diversity are significant here. However this does not imply […]

Labor wasn’t saved by the goldfields after all

This was a very good result for the Coalition. Obviously Labor had weakness but the Coalition had to be in a position to take advantage of them and to survive the scrutiny of an election campaign. Whereas in NSW and Queensland the opposition wilted under the pressure of an election campaign the Coalition flourished. The […]

Tony Abbott as National Party leader

Discussing the National Party tomorrow morning on ABC Ballarat, some thoughts (which build on my predictions before the last election): For decades political observers have chronicled the decline of the National Party, and predicted the party’s final demise, in particular some have argued that the dismantling of agricultural market regulation would be fatal to the […]

Election (and after) predictions

Just go on the record. Some may call this a history-making campign, but I expect that this will be a campaign that will inspire low levels of interest and enthusiasm compared to 2007, Julia Gillard notwithstanding (see my recent article here and my earlier one here) Tony Abbott has done exceptionally well so far, he […]

Liberals, conservatives, deficits and the EITC

Interesting to see that in the United States liberals seem to be more divided about fiscal policy than conservatives, but would conservatives push for if they engaged with the fiscal policy challenges?

Marriage equality, wealth redistribution and party elites

Are Australian MPs more or less radical than their voters? Some comparisons from the Australian Election and Australian Candidate Studies for 2007 (I have combined ‘agree’ and ‘strongly agree’): Candidates Voters Candidates Voters Support income and wealth redistribution Support income and wealth redistribution Support legalisation of same-sex marriage Support legalisation of same-sex marriage Liberal-National 15.6% […]

Immigration, race and popular environmentalism

The curious fact about the recent population controversy is the absence of any historical context. Since the early 1970s immigration has been a theme of conservative campaigns in Australia, before then it was Labor that wrapped itself in the banner of White Australia.  The conservative critique of immigration came direct from Britain where the Conservatives […]

The South Australian Liberal revivial

The strong performance by the Liberals in the South Australian election campaign has surprised many and driven Labor to resort to a highly negative campaign as shown. One clear pattern in recent Australian politics has been the recasting of the national Liberals as a strongly conservative party. Malcolm Turnbull’s downfall was evidence of this.

Medicare and Barack Obama

Erza Klein argues that polls show support for health care reform rising (and this at a time when the current bill has attracted substantial opposition from the left). As I have argued before perhaps Australia may provide a guide, the single-payer systems of Medibank and Medicare implemented by Labor governments in 1975 and 1984 (a […]