Keith Olbermann interviews Barack Obama - Iraq, Afghanistan

• Report rights infringement
• published: 18 Sep 2008
• views: 6815

We have largely been able to defeat the activities of al-Qaeda in Iraq and the insurgent groups that supported it. It is important to note, however, that there is a still significant residual level of violence because it is almost impossible to stop suicide bombings, car bombings, and the occasional use of improvised explosive devices [IEDs]. There are still al-Qaeda support areas in the north around Mosul and in Diyala Province. This is not a force that is defeated as much as suppressed and sharply reduced. The second threat that most people saw at least at the beginning of the surge was the faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia. The result of the fighting in Basra, the operations in Baghdad and in Sadr City, and Sadr's choice, really, to concentrate on political options, has meant that the Mahdi militia is far weaker than it has been. But it hasnt turned its weapons over. The cadres are still there. Even though Sadr has claimed and probably has actively sought to create a political movement, the fact is that over the last two weeks, very large numbers of the Mahdi militia's leaders and members have taken a blood oath to continue the fighting and to continue to be part of an armed resistance. We have seen real progress, but the fact is that more and more the Iraqi government and Iraqi politics are taking over. It isnt a matter of who the president is, it's to what extent does Iraq's political dynamics allow it to actually work with the United States in ways where we can make an orderly transition to effective Iraqi Security Forces, and we can hand over the aid process in ways that we are confident that the Iraq government is actually moving the money into the provinces and to the people in ways that do not create new ethnic and sectarian tensions. Whether that can produce total U.S. withdrawals by the end of 2011 or not is obviously, at this point, almost completely speculative. But U.S troop levels are only part of this issue. Security has to depend on real political accommodation. Iraq must have sustained economic development with jobs and economic security. There has to be enough progress in terms of local elections and local government so people can see government services, and something approaching the rule of law in their neighborhood, one in which they are confident they are not going to be persecuted because of their ethnic or religious background. To what extent has any U.S. presidential candidate addressed these complications? The answer is none. Has there been a credible statement from any adviser to a campaign that any adult can take seriously? The answer has to be none as well. Probably if plans go ahead, there will be a significantly larger presence added to Afghanistan. The fact is that we are winning the war that is unpopular in Iraq, and we are losing the war that is popular in Afghanistan. We simply can't wait for the next president to try to respond to what's happening in Afghanistan. We are almost going to have to have a winter campaign simply because the Taliban has built up its capabilities, particulary in eastern Afghanistan, in the course of this year. We need three or four more brigades inside of Afghanistan. It is going to take three or four years to build up anything approaching a convincing Afghanistan army and police force, much less a government presence. These are not matters of debate. There is no one working these issues who sees the threats and military requirements in any other terms. One of the problems we have as Americans is that we are somehow terribly disappointed that we can't change whole cultures and peoples to become copies of us in a few years. Wars take a long time. Political change takes a long time. We may not like history, but history takes time and if we are going to have any success in Iraq or Afghnaistan, this phrase "long war" that has been used by Secretary of Defense [Robert] Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs [Michael] Mullen is one that we are going to have to start taking very seriously and presidents and Congress have to take very seriously. You cannot be a superpower and act like a third grader who threatens to leave a baseball game and take his baseball home if the other people won't play his way. http://www.cfr.org/publication/17111/us_winning_unpopular_war_in_iraq_but_losing_popular_war_in_afghanistan.html