Report: Expansion would increase Big 12's chances of a College Football Playoff bid by 10-15 percent

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd reported Wednesday that a study commissioned by the Big 12 indicates the league would increase its chances by 10-15 percent to make the College Football Playoff in a given season if the 10-team league expanded to 12 or more teams.

These projections come from data compiled by Navigate Research, a Chicago-based research firm. According to Fox Sports college football expert Stewart Mandel, the Navigate research was based on 10 seasons of data and 40,000 simulations.

This comes on the heels of a report Monday that conference Commissioner Bob Bowlsby told reporters at Big 12 meetings in Phoenix that Navigate's research indicated adding two teams and a conference championship game would increase those CFP odds by 4-5 percent, though CBS Sports learned Wednesday that percentage only included the addition of a conference championship game.

What this all means for schools like independent BYU, as well as American Athletic Conference members like Cincinnati, Connecticut, Central Florida, Houston and Memphis — teams considered among the leaders if the Big 12 decides to expand — is unclear.

According to Dodd, the analysis used by Navigate to generate the 10-15 percent increase include expanding the Big 12 to 12 teams, playing an eight-game conference schedule (teams currently play a nine-game, round-robin schedule) and staging a conference championship game.

“The good news is the last time we added members we didn't have the same urgency,” Bowlsby told Dodd. “I just think we need to act expediently.”

Following Wednesday's presentation, Dodd reported that the data indicated the Big 12 has a 62 percent chance of playing in the CFP in any given year if the league stands pat.

Mandel reported that Navigate, which presented its findings to coaches and ADs Wednesday, simulated many scenarios, including from 10 to 16 teams in the Big 12, eight- and nine-game league schedules and championship game and no championship game scenarios.

No decision on expansion is expected soon. The league's spring meetings will be held in Dallas from May 31-June 3 and will include school presidents, who would make the final decision on any possible expansion.

ESPN college football reporter Brett McMurphy joined BYUtv's Sports Nation on Wednesday to discuss the potential implications this could have for the Cougar athletic program. He told BYU SN that things are different this time than previous instances of Big 12 expansion talk, simply because there are now simulations that show how the league could benefit from expansion.

Still, McMurphy stressed patience for the Big 12, which missed out on the College Football Playoff during its inaugural year in 2014 but sent Oklahoma to the CFP in 2015. He suggested the league wait two more years before making any decisions on expansion to see if the Big 12 can return to the CFP the next two seasons without expansion.

"Bottom line, the team you're going to add … they've got nowhere else to go," McMurphy told BYU SN. "They're not going to get an invite from any other league from today until four years from now, so there's no rush to get these guys."

Fox Sports commentator Tim Brando cited reasons why BYU would be a top option if the Big 12 does indeed expand, including the school's broad college football brand and global alumni base that would work in BYU's favor in comparison to other expansion options.

"Expansion does NOT mean the BIG12 is falling apart, but Title game concept has been and continues to be a MUST! BYU is their best play +1!" Brando tweeted.

Could Big 12 expansion now, or even in a couple years, become less of an urgency for teams like BYU, Boise State and the AAC teams if the power conferences across the board decide to expand their borders even further?

Dodd reported that one of the models presented includes a scenario for a possible 16-team Big 12.

McMurphy said he believed that expanding to 16 teams for the Power 5 conferences is going to happen, brought about when TV grant-of-rights contracts end for these top-flight conferences in eight to nine years.

"At that point, everything gets shuffled around," Murphy told BYU SN. "I think that will be the final major move for realignment, even if the Big 12 does decide to go to 12 in the next year or two."

Email: bjudd@deseretdigital.com; Twitter: @brandonljudd