Voters in
Connecticut,
Delaware,
Maryland,
Pennsylvania and
Rhode Island will cast their ballots on Tuesday. These five primaries are expected to provide big batches of delegates to both the
Democratic front-runner,
Hillary Clinton, and the
Republican,
Donald Trump. (Since delegates are assigned proportionally across the board in
Democratic primaries, I’m going to concentrate on the Republican side here.) So just how big is
Trump going to win on Tuesday, and where might he lose delegates? (
Remember, Trump’s path to the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the
GOP nomination is on a knife’s edge, so every delegate matters.)
Connecticut
Delegates at stake: 28 (15 by congressional district, 13 statewide)
Nate Silver’s “deterministic” Trump projection: 23 delegates (this is, as Nate wrote, “the single most likely” number of delegates Trump will win in the state, in Nate’s view.)
Allocation: 15 delegates awarded winner-take-all by congressional district; 13 delegates awarded proportionally statewide with a 50 percent winner-take-all threshold and a 20 percent qualifying threshold.
The limited polling that’s been conducted in Connecticut has found Trump hovering right around the 50 percent mark, and the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecasts have him falling just shy of 50 percent. If he wins a majority statewide, though, he’ll get that bundle of 13 delegates. If Trump misses the 50 percent mark, he’ll probably win only six to eight of the statewide delegates, depending on whether
Ted Cruz and
John Kasich cross 20 percent.
The other big question is whether
Kasich can sneak a win in Connecticut’s 4th
Congressional District, which borders
New York (Trump will probably win the other four districts). The 4th was home to former Rep.
Chris Shays, a moderate, who has endorsed Kasich, and with nearly 60 percent of non-Hispanic whites 25 years or older there holding at least a bachelor’s degree, it’s the type of district in which Trump struggled in the New York primary. If Trump loses the 4th, he’ll lose its three delegates — but he may not lose it. He was beating Kasich 41 percent to 38 percent among college-educated
Republicans statewide in the latest
Quinnipiac University poll of Connecticut.
Still, given the obstacles between Trump and a clean sweep of Connecticut’s delegates, it’s still not clear where the state fits in Trump’s fight to collect 1,237 — whether Connecticut will get him closer to that goal or set him further off track.
Delaware
Delegates at stake: 16
Nate’s deterministic Trump projection: 16 delegates
Allocation: winner-take-all
About 50,
000 Republicans voted in the last competitive presidential primary in Delaware back in 2008. If turnout in 2016 is anything like that, Delaware would provide the winner with more delegates per vote than most caucuses and primaries so far. Although there has been little polling in the state, the one poll there has been found Trump with a 55 percent to 18 percent lead over Kasich. Trump is also polling very well along the eastern shore of Maryland, which borders Delaware.
Trump’s strength here shouldn’t be too surprising given that Delaware has nominated outsiders for major political office before. Remember how tea party star
Christine O’Donnell defeated moderate Rep.
Mike Castle in the
2010 Republican
Senate primary? It was perhaps the most blatant example of primary voters throwing away a Senate seat
I’ve ever seen. (
Chris Coons, a
Democrat, beat
O’Donnell in the special election that year.) In other words, Trump is likely to win Delaware and show once again that the GOP primary rules are mostly helping him, not hurting him.
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- published: 26 Apr 2016
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