Aconex's M&A strategy has positives and negatives: Deutsche Bank

Aconex's mergers and acquisitions strategy is cited as both a driver of earnings but also as a potential risk, in new research by Deutsche Bank analysts.

Aconex's mergers and acquisitions strategy is cited as both a driver of earnings but also as a potential risk, in new research by Deutsche Bank analysts.  

The broker initiated coverage on the construction industry software provider with a "buy" rating and a price target of $7.85.

Deutsche analysts said Aconex's growth strategy involved continued penetration of the global construction collaboration sector, particularly in industry segments and regions such as Asia, the Americas and Europe the Middle East and Africa.

They added that the company could leverage existing customer relationships via the 'network effect' and continue product development through "innovative research and development." Opportunistic M&A was cited as a key plank of growth, however, the analysts also cautioned on risks around overpaying for assets and integrating purchases. 

"The company's growth strategy involves opportunistic assessment of acquisitions which presents pricing and integration risk," the research said. 

Last month, Aconex kicked off a capital raising and partial sell down to acquire Germany-based construction collaboration software company Conject Holdings.

Deutsche forecast that Aconex's cash balance would grow to $174 million in financial year 2020, assuming no dividends were paid and no further M&A.

"We see ACX as well-placed to further leverage its leading position within a large, underpenetrated market benefiting from positive industry and technology trends. We are also attracted to the globally scalable, highly cash-generative SaaS model," the analysts said.  

The company's shares have rallied strongly since their ASX debut in late 2014.

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Air New Zealand's sale of Virgin stake may spur special dividend

Air New Zealand could pay a fully-imputed special dividend of up to $NZ500 million, or $NZ45c a share, if it is able to exit its 25.9 per cent stake in Virgin Australia.

Air New Zealand could pay a fully-imputed special dividend of up to $NZ500 million, or $NZ45c a share, if it is able to exit its 25.9 per cent stake in Virgin Australia, according to Macquarie Equities.

"If Air New Zealand were to exit the Virgin stake as flagged to the market (listed value $315 million) we think this could be a catalyst for a capital return," the broker said.

However, Macquarie has lowered its recommendation on Air New Zealand to "neutral" with a $NZ3 share price target as a result of emerging concerns over yields, or average ticket prices.

Air New Zealand put its Virgin holding on the block in March. The company's chief Christopher Luxon resigned from the Virgin board to coincide with the move. 

The Kiwi carrier's March operating statistics released on Thursday showed a weakening in yields and load factor, or the percentage of seats filled. As a result, Macquarie has slashed its FY17 profit before tax forecast, excluding any contribution from the Virgin stake, by 9.2 per cent.

"While the market has been forecasting FY16 as peak earnings, the potential downside to FY17-18 may come as a surprise … with the yield and foreign exchange impact offsetting tailwinds from fuel, operating leverage and fleet simplification," the broker said.

Forward capacity data suggests Air NZ will boost its capacity by 8.5 per cent in the first half of FY17, with continued expansion to Houston and Buenos Aires and in Asia, the domestic market and the trans-Tasman market.

Macquarie said on a FY17 price/earnings basis, Qantas Airways was now trading at a lower multiple than Air New Zealand after the Australian carrier's shares fell this week when it pointed to softer domestic market conditions.

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Scottish Pacific firms up ASX board ahead of float

Debtor and trade finance company Scottish Pacific has lined up two new non-executive directors for its run at the bourse.

Debtor and trade finance company Scottish Pacific has lined up two new non-executive directors for its run at the bourse. 

Street Talk can reveal that Gateway Lifestyle chairman Andrew Love and Vitaco non-executive director Katrina Onishi are on hand to join Scottish Pacific's board when it pulls the trigger on a float. 

While mid-market private equity firm Next Capital is set to pare its stake as part of the initial public offering, founding partner Patrick Elliott is slated to be chairman of the listed entity.

He will be joined on the board by Scottish Pacific chief executive Peter Langham and existing non-executive director and former Westpac Banking Corp executive, Peter Clare.  

Scottish Pacific has Reunion Capital Partners in its corner for IPO advice, while Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are joint lead managers. 

Elsewhere, another ASX aspirant has opted to price its shares conservatively ahead of hitting the boards.

As revealed by Street Talk on Thursday, ASX aspirant Fastacash set an initial public offering price of $1.60 a share. 

The pricing will give the company a market cap of $108 million, and reflects four times revenue. The sponsor broker is Wilson HTM. It comes after Wilson analyst Joe Michael released pre-marketing research to fund managers, recommending clients value the business at 4.5-times to 5.5-times revenue.

Investor bids for the IPO are due on Tuesday. 

Finally, Citi is understood to have hired Bank of America-Merrill Lynch senior analyst David Kaynes to cover the telco, media and technology sectors. 

He replaces Justin Diddams who parted ways with the bank in December. 

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The Carlyle Group's hat in the ring for StatePlus

Private equity giant The Carlyle Group is working on a binding bid for $1 billion Sydney-based financial planning business StatePlus.

Private equity giant The Carlyle Group is working on a binding bid for $1 billion Sydney-based financial planning business StatePlus. 

Street Talk can reveal that Carlyle is deep into the second round of StatePlus' trade sale process, with an eye to presenting a firm bid in time for the May 10 decision date. 

Sources said Carlyle's interest was "decent" although it's understood the private equity player has some concerns about the target company's aspirational growth targets. Carlyle has plenty of experience kicking tyres on such deals and sources said it would have no qualms about pulling out of the sale late in the process should it feel like it could not match its rivals.  

Carlyle is understood to be working on an offer without any strategic or financial co-investors. 

The global buyout firm joins fellow private equity tyrekicker Pacific Equity Partners in the running. Questions have also been raised about PEP's willingness to continue in the process in recent days, however sources close to the firm said it had not given up on its bid. 

The private equity players are up against trade buyer IOOF Ltd, advised by Citi and Nomura, and New South Wales superannuation fund manager First State Super. 

It comes ahead of a frantic 2½ weeks for StatePlus' advisers and management team, with the trade offers up against an initial public offering proposal being put together by Macquarie Capital and Morgan Stanley. 

As Street Talk revealed on Monday, the brokers released a pathfinder prospectus to a club of potential cornerstone investors this week, in an effort to help them put a value on the IPO side of the dual-track sale. 

Street Talk understands StatePlus' management, headed by Michael Monaghan, would like to remain in charge of the company and would welcome an ASX-listing. Sources close to the situation said management was confident the deal would head towards the IPO track. 

Finally, as reported by Street Talk on Thursday, Arnhem Investment Management portfolio manager and analysts Martin Duncan has called time on his career in financial markets, telling contacts he was "hanging up the excel spreadsheet". 

In a note to sell-side contacts, Duncan said he had enjoyed his 31-year career in stockbroking and funds management but it was time to move on to other projects, including writing a book about life in the financial markets. 

Duncan said he was likely to finish up on June 17. He is a partner at Arnhem and previously worked at JPMorgan, Colonial First State and Macquarie Group, among other firms. 

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Alinta Energy timetable looms as election campaign's first scalp

The federal election looms like a guillotine for dealmakers around the country and is set to delay the bidding for utilities owner Alinta Energy, among other deals.

The federal election looms like a guillotine for dealmakers around the country and is set to delay the bidding for utilities owner Alinta Energy, among other deals. 

Should Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull call an early election before May 11 as appears most likely, bankers and big money fund managers expect any large deals to cease in their tracks until after the early July poll date.  

Worst hit will be those deals requiring Foreign Investment Review Board approval, with the Treasurer already reluctant to rule on big deals ahead of the election. 

And the bigger the deal, the worse the potential delay. 

Alinta Energy, which has attracted a field of mostly Chinese bidders and expected to be worth about $4 billion, is most likely to be delayed. 

Sources close to the process said the June 3 tentative bid date was already likely to be pushed back in an effort to accommodate the political situation and give bidders extra time for their offers. 

Alinta is being pitched as an integrated Western Australian-based energy business, which is more than a disparate collection of energy assets. Its gas business is run on an integrated basis in WA, managing supply between the retailing activities and gas-fired power generation 

The pitch also centres around WA's structure as a capacity-type wholesale electricity market, which means there is some visibility on revenue through the capacity payment program. It's different to the market structure in the eastern states. 

As for valuation, bidders are said to be working on bids around the $4 billion mark. It's understood owner TPG would like to see the number hit $5 billion, which would be about 13-times earnings. 

Ofcourse Alinta is not the only big deal likely to require FIRB approval in the coming three months. There is also New South Wales distribution company Ausgrid, which is the subject of bids from State Grid Corporation of China and Hong Kong investor Cheung Kong Infrastructure in July. 

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