NEVER SEEN BEFORE Changes in SUNS's SOLAR CYCLE - Extremely Cold Winters for Decades
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NEVER SEEN BEFORE
Changes in
SUNS's
SOLAR CYCLE - Extremely
Cold Winters for Decades
"The current prediction for
Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the
Summer of
2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in
February 2012) due to the strong peak in late
2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months.
We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of
1906...."
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards a second peak over the last three months. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway,
Wilson, and Reichmann
Solar Physics; 151, 177 (
1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.
A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum.
Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the
Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.
Of these "geomagnetic precursor" techniques three stand out. The earliest is from Ohl and Ohl [Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings,
Vol. II. 258 (
1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic aa index at its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the geomagnetic aa index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the prediction isn't available until the sunspot cycle has started.
An alternative method is due to a process suggested by
Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic aa index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. This remaining signal has, in the past, given good estimates of the sunspot numbers several "
Solar activity" "charged particles" "sun flare" "aurora borealis" "sun spots" "solar cycle" peak "solar maximum" "cold winters" "ice age" "great frost" "end of the world" "earths atmosphere" variations "fastest rate" "ultraviolet radiation" "jet stream" "global climate" "regional climate" "global warming" "human activity" "abc news" "cbs news" "nbc news" "bbc news" "wall street digital" "rt news" "breaking news" "world news" "global news" "latest news" "scientific news" "
24 hour news" "apocalypse news" years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs near sunspot minimum and is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time of sunspot minimum.
A third method is due to
Richard Thompson. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.