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Here we are, eight years into the Rick Porcello experience, and I’m still not sure what to think
Start with his 2016 stats, they’re all over the place. A 3-0 record and a 0.93 WHIP, that’s excellent. A 4.66 ERA, that’s a problem. Porcello has allowed five homers but less hard contact. Even the ERA estimators can’t agree: FIP suggests 4.70, xFIP offers 2.81. (Do you believe in home-run forgiveness? We could go 15 rounds, lost in that rabbit hole.)
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If you’d like to see some video, have a look at what Porcello did against the Rays on Wednesday, his latest victory (7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 9 K). The stuff doesn't look overpowering, but the location is pretty.
When in doubt on any pitcher, I tend to simplify, come back to walks and strikeouts. And perhaps that’s why I can’t completely quit Porcello, not just yet. He’s struck out 24 batters in 19.1 innings this year, walked just three. A K/BB trend that strong is difficult to ignore. And we’re talking about a former first-round pick, albeit that was almost nine years ago.
But if Porcello was going to turn into a star — or even a sure-bet mixed-league fantasy pitcher — wouldn’t we have seen it by now? His career ERA is 4.39; only two of his seven previous seasons have landed under 4. He had a lagging strikeout rate in his Detroit days, but he’s pumped that up to 8.9 since joining the Red Sox. The AL East schedule is generally jagged — he’s made two Fenway Park starts and two Toronto starts on the young season (the Jays hit four homers against him, but still lost twice).
Porcello was an extreme ground-ball pitcher in his Detroit days; he’s been closer to neutral with Boston. This is an acceptable trade-off if the strikeouts are along for the ride. You also have to wonder how much being an extreme strike thrower hurts Porcello; maybe being around the plate so often winds up hurting him in the home run column. His HR/FB ratio has been on the “unlucky” side of the sheet — if you believe in such things — in four of the last five seasons.
Porcello is unowned in about 80 percent of Yahoo leagues, which feels a little light. I’m willing to at least give him preferred streamer status, a matchup play when the opponent is right. His next turn comes at Atlanta, a favorable draw against a low-scoring, powerless opponent. Let’s kick the tires for a start, then re-evaluate.
Porcello’s Wednesday win came at Chris Archer’s expense. The Tampa Bay ace is now 0-4 on the year, with a 7.32 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He’s collecting plenty of strikeouts (29 in 19.2 innings), but everything else is a mess: 27.6 percent line drives, six homers, 11 walks. His velocity is down for the season, though it’s been better in the last two outings.
Archer probably comes in as a forced hold in a lot of leagues — you can’t take him to market while his numbers are this bad, but I don’t see enough to make me believe in him as a trade target. The catwalk starts in Tampa are generally delightful, but the division is always going to take a tax on the road. And as good as his stuff is at times, we’re still talking about someone who’s never had an ERA below 3.23, or a WHIP under 1.14. This is a fantasy No. 2 or No. 3, shoehorned into ace’s clothing back in March.
I take no delight in Archer’s struggles. He’s a fun guy to watch when he’s at his best. But you come for a fantasy bottom line, and here is mine — I do not want what I haven’t got. I’ll watch this one from the sidelines. If you're looking to trade away from him, you need to wait until he presents a sellable window.
Now it might seem funny to step back from this piece and wonder why I’m promoting Porcello and dinging Archer. See the difference, the nuance. I’m merely giving Porcello a shot at being someone who occasionally can be trusted for fantasy purposes, when the matchup is right. And I’m wondering if the fantasy community gave Archer a premature graduation ticket into the class of aces, though he’s someone you probably have to start until further notice. Although they’re both pitchers, their price points and expectations are dramatically different. We’re talking apples and oranges here.
• For Jordan Zimmermann, the pitching was the easy part on Wednesday. He worked into the seventh, didn't allow a run at Kansas City. But his third victory wasn’t secure until a Francisco Rodriguez white-knuckle ride in the ninth (two homers, two walks, 29 pitches). The Tigers couldn’t exhale until Mike Moustakas struck out to end the game.
If you’re brazen enough to roster K-Rod, you know the directive: you can’t watch him live. You’re going to mess up your health. It’s not worth the stress. If you feel like hedging the save chase (or merely looking for ratio-smoothing stats), note lefty Justin Wilson already has six holds, nine strikeouts, and a tidy 0.79 WHIP.
Jarrod Dyson worked a ninth-inning walk off Rodriguez, then swiped second base. Dyson is basically the cheaper version of Billy Hamilton, a one-trick pony all the way. Dyson's average should be better than Hamilton's; perhaps the stolen-base upside is an eyelash less. If you have the categorical need, Dyson, two days off the DL, is available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• If you want a smoother ride from your fantasy pitcher, the National League is usually the place to go. Let’s check what Drew Pomeranz is doing in San Diego. He shut down the Pirates on Wednesday (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K), taking his ERA down to 2.04 and his WHIP down to 1.13. He’s piled up 25 strikeouts (against nine walks) over 17.2 innings. That curve is delightful, isn't it?
The first thing we have to do with Pomeranz’s six-season resume is delete the Colorado hell from it. If we focus on what we’ve seen the last three years, a pretty picture emerges: 2.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, almost a strikeout per inning. Some of that work came in the rotation, some as a reliever in Oakland.
Pomeranz might not be a sixth-month story given his light innings history, but let’s play for today. He’s been good in all three of his turns, and Petco Park will hide some mistakes. Although Pomeranz gets unlucky with ace matchups in his next two turns — Bumgarner, Kershaw — I expect him to do fine at San Francisco and Los Angeles. After that, it’s a recommended home start against the Rockies. You can still add Pomeranz in about 70 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• I’m surprised Chris Carter is merely 23 percent owned in Yahoo leagues, but here we are. All he does, after all, is hit home runs. The career .218 average is a deal breaker to many, perhaps most.
Nonetheless, let’s note Carter’s reasonable .261 start, with four homers in 14 games. His current walk and strikeout rates are both a little better than his career trend. If he can approach the .227-.239 pocket we saw in 2012-14, his 30-plus homers should be worth rostering. I have a few shares; I’ll live with the good and the bad. The Brewers are certainly going to play him, given their thin roster.
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