Political Moneyball | The Science of Politics

Aug 21

Law Enforcement Gone Wild for 8/21

Posted on 21 August 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

We’ve got a pretty notable, and increasing, problem with the law enforcement culture in the U.S. It’s not anything new, but we should be past this right now. This series isn’t designed to go after good cops, it’s all about the bad cops, the bad in the legal system, and miscarriages of justice carried out by the system.

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Jul 08

Why Dems Will Win in 2016 (And 2020 and Probably 2024, Too)

Posted on 8 July 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

I’m making this prediction right now and I’m going to stick with it. Barring a major scandal by a Democrat, or a complete change in the way the Republican Party works, I am predicting that NO Republican candidate can defeat ANY Democratic candidate for president in 2016 and 2020, and probably not in 2024, either.

Here’s why: the Electoral College. Here is a look at where the states stand in recent presidential elections and what category they’re likely to fit into:

Certain R (147)

Alabama 9 (over 60% R in last 3 elections)
Alaska 3 (over 55% R in last 4 electiosn)
Arkansas 6 (Over 54% R in last 3 elections)
Idaho 4 (Over 60% R in last 4 elections)
Kansas 6 (Over 55% R in last 4 elections)
Kentucky 8 (over 55% R in last 4 elections)
Louisiana 8 (Over 55% R in last 3 elections)
Mississippi 6 (Over 55% R in last 4 elections)
Nebraska 5 (Over 55% R in last 4 elections, BUT Obama one divided CD vote in 2008, getting one electoral vote, could happen again)
North Dakota 3 (Over 58% R in 3 of last 4 elections)
Oklahoma 7 (Over 60% R in last 4 elections)
South Carolina 9 (Over 55% R in 3 of last 4 elections)
South Dakota 3 (Over 58% R in 3 of last 4 elections)
Tennessee 11 (Over 57% R in last 3 elections)
Texas 38 (Over 56% R in last 4 elections)
Utah 6 (Over 63% R in last 4 elections)
West Virginia 12 (Over 55% R in last 3 elections)
Wyoming 3 (Over 65% R in last 4 elections)

Likely R (41)

Arizona 11 (Under 55% R last 4 elections)
Georgia 16 (Under 53% R last two elections)
Indiana 11 (Under 55% R in last 2 elections, Obama won in 2008)
Montana 3 (55% in 2012, but only 50% R in 2008)

Toss-Up (72)

Florida 29 (Hovers around 50% mark, but D registrations significantly outnumber Rs and the gap is growing, R votes outnumber Ds in only one of the last 5 presidential elections)
Missouri 10 (Under 55% R in last 4 elections)
North Carolina 15 (Hovers around 50%, Obama lost in 2012, but won in 2008)
Ohio 18 (Hovers around 50%, Obama won twice, but so did George W. Bush)

Certain D (179)

California 55 (Over 60% D last 2 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Connecticut 7 (Over 54% D in last 4 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Delaware 3 (Over 59% D in last 2 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
DC 3 (Over 90% D in last 2 elections, hasn’t voted for an R ever)
Hawaii 4 (Over 70% D in last 2 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)
Illinois 20 (Over 55% D in last 4 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Maine 4 (Over 54% D in last 3 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Maryland 10 (Over 55% D in last 4 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Massachusetts 11 (Over 60% D in at least the last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)
New Jersey 14 (Over 55% in 3 of last 4 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
New York 29 (Over 58% D in at least last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)
Rhode Island 4 (Over 59% D in at least last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)
Vermont 3 (Over 59% D in last 3 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Washington 12 (Over 56% D in last 2 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)

Likely D (106)

Colorado 9 (Over 50% D in last 2 elections)
Iowa 6 (Under 55% Dem in last 2 elections, R only won once since 1984)
Michigan 16 (Over 54% D in last 2 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Minnesota 10 (Under 55% D in at least last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1972)
Nevada 6 (Under 55% last election, 55% in previous, voted R in 2004)
New Hampshire 4 (Under 55% D in last 3 elections, hasn’t voted R since 2000)
New Mexico 5 (53% D in 2012, 57% in 2008, voted R in 2004)
Oregon 7 (Over 54% in last two elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)
Pennsylvania 20 (Under 55% D in at least last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1988)
Virginia 13 (Hovers around 50%, Obama won twice, but so did George W. Bush)
Wisconsin 10 (Under 55% D in all but one of last 5 elections, hasn’t voted R since 1984)

First up, the basic math: If Democrats win all of the states that they won in both 2008 and 2012, they can’t lose, no matter what the Republicans do. But more importantly, if they win all the states that are certain or likely D (something that should be relatively easy to do), they can’t lose. This is regardless of any issue, any candidate or anything like that. What Republicans have to do to win is win all of their standard states, all of their leaning states, all of the toss-up states AND peel off Michigan or at least two other likely D states.

This will be almost impossible in the next two election cycles for several reasons:

1. Demographic trends in almost every state of importance favor Democrats. The fastest-growing population groups all vote overwhelmingly Democratic and those numbers are growing even more Democratic over time, particularly with African Americans, Hispanics, college-educated, and people who work in cities. Republicans have also pursued, with vigor, policies that target Hispanics and women, likely making both turnout and vote totals for the Democrat rise amongst those groups.

2. The Democrats have fewer weak states that the have to defend. They can lose one or two “likely” states with no problem if they pick up one or more toss-up states or peel of a “likely R” state. And some of those likely R states are primed for a pick off because of the same demographic trends mentioned in #1. It’s likely that in 2016 or 2020, at least one of those states votes D at least once.

3. The spending patterns favor the Dems heavily. We saw this in recent elections, where McCain and Romney gave up in states they needed to win because they couldn’t spend enough money and had to focus the resources on holding states that they were supposed to win easily. Dems don’t have to spend much to defend California or New York, but Republicans will have to spend more to keep Texas and North Carolina and a few others. With outside money, the Republicans will certainly spend more overall, but it remains to be seen that they’ll spend it wisely or effectively. They certainly haven’t done so in presidential elections in a long time, maybe since the 1980s.

4. The Dems simply have many more paths to victory. Republicans can’t lose any of the toss-up states. Without Florida and Ohio and North Carolina they have NO viable path to the White House. Dems can lose all of those and still win in a landslide.

5. Literally nothing else matters. The Electoral College is very specific and unless the rules are changed, which Republicans have tried and failed in recent years, they have no path to victory, regardless of who they nominate or how much they spend. People that think that elections are about swing voters aren’t paying attention to the data. The data clearly shows that elections are about turnout and our system encourages much higher turnout in presidential election years. Higher turnout means more Democrats in almost every state and pretty much means that barring something major, no Republican can beat any Democrat in 2016 and probably several elections after that, no matter what the media tells you.

None of this is to suggest that Democrats shouldn’t run good campaigns and fight for all those votes. Obviously Congress matters, as we’ve seen unprecedented obstruction from Republicans and gerrymandering pushes Congress in the Republican direction. Also state and local offices matter a lot in our federalist system. Nothing can help those lower offices more than a great presidential campaign, so it’s all important, it’s just not likely that Republicans will occupy the White House any time soon, unless we royally fuck things up.

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Jun 06

Law Enforcement Gone Wild

Posted on 6 June 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

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Jun 06

Good News

Posted on 6 June 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

We always hear about the bad news and the big losses, but there are a lot of positive things happening, too, and it’s good to focus on them from time to time.

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Jun 06

Gun News

Posted on 6 June 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

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Jun 06

The Politics of Hate – The Rest

Posted on 6 June 2014 by Kenneth Quinnell

2008 was a rough election. Not just in that it was so long and so close, but that it was loaded with hate and hate-filled attacks on people based on their race, patriotism, gender or other things. Few, if any, of these attacks had any legitimacy or were based upon anything remotely like evidence. Conservatives recognize that this happened, but they say it was done equally by both sides. Complete nonsense, this was an overwhelmingly one-sided affair. Since the election, things have gotten significantly worse, as the Republican party has devolved into the party of hate. These posts will catalog the hate-filled rhetoric of the Republican Party and its conservative allies on a daily basis.

Attacks on People With Disabilities

Calling for American Failure

False Attacks on People’s Patriotism or Americanism

Falsely Calling Liberals Socialist or Communist

Attacks on People With Disabilities

Attacks on Poor People and Working Families

Calling for American Failure

Comparison of Liberals or Democrats to Bad Guys

Defense of Bad Guys

Disruption of Legitimate Events

False Attacks on People’s Patriotism or Americanism

Falsely Calling Liberals Socialist or Communist

Fearmongering

Homophobia

Racism

Religious Hatred

Sexism

Violence or Threats of Violence

Attacks on People With Disabilities

Attacks on Poor People and Working Families

Comparison of Liberals or Democrats to Bad Guys

Disruption of Legitimate Events

False Attacks on People’s Patriotism or Americanism

Falsely Calling Liberals Socialist or Communist

Fearmongering

Homophobia

Racism

Religious Hatred

Sexism

Violence or Threats of Violence

Attacks on People With Disabilities

Attacks on Poor People or the Working Class

Comparison of Liberals or Democrats to Bad Guys

Defense of Bad Guys

Disruption of Legitimate Events

False Attacks on People’s Patriotism or Americanism

Fearmongering

Homophobia

Racism

Religious Hatred

Sexism

Violence or Threats of Violence

Attacks on People With Disabilities

Attacks on Poor People and Working Families

Comparison of Liberals or Democrats to Bad Guys

Defense of Bad Guys

Disruption of Legitimate Events

Falsely Calling Liberals Socialist or Communist

Fearmongering

Homophobia

Racism

Religious Hatred

Sexism

Violence or Threats of Violence

Important Reading

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