On the EU referendum front there is good news and bad news again – more good than bad by a whisker. Thus, Jeremy Corbyn is finally bestirring himself to say that the “warts and all” EU remains a crucial pillar of the international order for good socialists.
Advance publicity suggested Jez’s speech was going to be more of a penny-whistle toot than a trumpet call, but Andy Sparrow’s live blog of the event made it sound stronger.
There is a Labour school of thought that Jeremy being tepid on Europe (he used to be rabidly anti) will do the remain campaign more good than ardent pro-Europeans care to admit. Why? Because most British voters probably feel similarly ambivalent, even those who will end up echoing Sadiq Khan’s unheroic refrain “Why take the risk?” and voting to stay.
We’ll come back to that.
Thursday’s bad news is more fun. The Electoral Commission has decided that the Vote Leave campaign, stuffed with what now passes for Tory grandees (including four cabinet ministers, not six as routinely reported), should be the official leave organisation and thus get hold of the £7m worth of taxpayer wonga to fight their corner against the catatonic Britain Stronger in Europe crowd.
This decision has predictably enraged the rival Grassroots Out (GO) campaign, not just less reputable because it contains Ukip’s Nigel Farage and insurance tycoon Arron Banks, but because it campaigns on the dark side of the Brexit controversy, which is immigration. Needless to say, the combative Banksy has taken it badly enough to threaten high court action (which he can afford) to delay the 23 June vote. Can you imagine it? He wants to prolong our collective agony and further split the Brexiteers.
Excellent, excellent. It has been a conspicuous feature of the Brexit campaign that they fight like ferrets in a sack and have no common line on why Britain should leave, let alone what it will do next to become the brilliant Alex Salmond-style success they promise it will be once precious “sovereignty” has been regained. Even the Vote Leave crowd, whose leaders know how to eat with knives and forks, are pretty sparky in the “pick a fight in an empty room” department.
In fairness Nigel Farage has been more conciliatory than usual about working together. Perhaps he is finally learning the basics of effective political action: cooperation with broadly likeminded people rather than Ukip’s traditional witch-hunts and expulsions. Banks is several chapters behind.
It all serves to remind us that the Brexit camp has deep structural problems that may yet deprive it of the victory it now thinks is within its grasp – as does the anxious international community. True, the remain camp’s chief campaigner, David Cameron, has had a terrible few weeks over budget benefits, offshore taxes, steel closures, trade figures and IDS’s resignation (Brexit’s Priti Patel never was a cabinet minister, so that makes four).
But the idea that “Votersturn away from EU as trust in Cameron slides” (paywall) – Thursday’s splash headline in the Times – is just wishful thinking. Public memory being as fickle as it is, Cameron’s mensis horribilis will probably fade. It’s not as if voters didn’t know he was born with a drawer full of silver spoons, Sam Cam with two drawers. He’s not dead yet.
As a pro-European agnostic (Brussels and Berlin have made a hash of so much) I’m still wary of the outcome. A YouGov poll for the Times on Thursday puts both camps on 39% with 17% undecided or unaware that there is dry land beyond Dover. Trust in Cameron is down 8% to 21%, below Corbyn on 28%, which shows how much respect we should accord to most polls most days.
The awkward fact for progressives is that immigration is the key driver of anti-EU sentiment as Labour MPs dolefully report from all over the country. They tell me they are struggling to interest most of their voters in anything else, let alone in voting remain. Ten weeks to go.
No surprise about migrant numbers when the papers run lurid and negative coverage most days. This week the Mail carried EU-bashing coverage on the same page as a National Crime Agency (NCA) report on the scale of lucrative people-smuggling by lorry and boat across the Channel. That won’t stop if we vote Brexit, will it? It’s part of a worldwide movement of people. Donald Trump’s fantasy wall against Mexico won’t stop it either.
In a closely fought battle, Labour’s support, and that of the SNP and Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems and Greens, all matter, especially if they have activists keen enough to turn out and knock on doors for votes. So it’s another shard of good news that the major public sector union Unison has joined Unite and the GMB in backing the remain case as best to protect the rights of workers and parents in a globalised economy in which capital has acquired too much power. Brussels resists its more outrageous demands.
In that context, is it surprising that tax-shy media oligarchs are against the EU? Union counterweight is part of the mix. It’s more surprising that Corbyn was later than many left comrades of his generation to switch from being very anti-EU (“capitalist ramp” was the phrase then) to be strongly pro, uncritically so during both phases in some cases. Yes, Denis McShane, I do mean you.
Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn, the two key senior pro-Europeans in Labour’s upper ranks, aren’t in that position. The shadow foreign secretary long since parted company with Dad on Europe (Tony started out pro and moved against) whereas Johnson has always been level-headed about Europe. His problem is he lacks passion or the capacity to convey it. A bit lazy too, whisper Labour critics of his leadership of the party’s remain campaign.
Getting Corbyn to make Thursday’s speech was quite an achievement, insiders explain. His heart’s not really in it, even if his head is persuaded that duty calls him to back continued UK membership. Nor is that of Seumas Milne, my old Guardian colleague turned Labour spin doctor, whose job it is to brief political reporters (as I no longer am).
Milne is a veteran anti-EU leftie too, and it’s hard to sound fired up with the press if you’re not fired up inside, some MPs suggest. We all know that feeling. But tepid agnosticism may catch the public mood over Europe better than excessive zeal on either side. The risk is that all the zeal is currently on the Brexit side, with a better website, more passion.
Remain’s figurehead, Stuart Rose, is about as inspiring as the M&S clothing range over which he used to preside. M&S’s latest solution to its own long-running problem is the fashion star Alexa Chung. The nearest offer remain can provide as star quality is not Rose, or Corbyn, Nick Clegg or Alan Johnson, not even Nicola Sturgeon. It’s Cameron, who’s currently looking shop-soiled.
If Kate Moss can bounce back from personal problems, there may be hope for Dave. If not, tepid may have to do.
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