ANALYSIS
Labor surge suggests cliff-hanger election
Labor and the Coalition are fifty-fifty in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, as Malcolm Turnbull's once-soaring approval rating continues to decline. Mark Kenny explains.
PT2M34S 620 349- Turnbull marked down in areas where expectations were highest
- Fairfax-Ipsos poll points to knife-edge election between PM and Shorten
- Why voters are deserting Malcolm Turnbull
Malcolm Turnbull has taken a cautious approach to the prime ministership, and he's being punished for it.
Bill Shorten is taking a riskier line, announcing controversial policies, and it's working for him.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull: When he seized the prime ministership seven months ago, Turnbull was bigger than his party. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
The net result is that the Turnbull government has entirely lost its advantage in the election-deciding two-party share of the vote, the first time in the Fairfax Ipsos poll.
Or, as the pollster, Jess Elgood, put it: "Malcolm Turnbull can lose this election."
Today's poll shows that the people's great disenchantment with Turnbull is continuing to grow.
The government's share of the vote, Turnbull's personal standing, continue slipping month by month.
When he seized the prime ministership seven months ago, Turnbull was bigger than his party.
His personal appeal was far greater than voter support for the Coalition government.
The electorate looked to him expecting sweeping reforms, and willed him on.
But he sidestepped one reform after another. He deferred major new action on climate change and same-sex marriage, afraid of antagonising his party's conservatives.
He vetoed major economic reforms, afraid of upsetting the public. In trying to hold his popularity, he has lost much of it.
The net result has been a steady, sustained fall-off in polled support.
The Coalition share of the two-party vote fell from a commanding lead of 56 per cent in November to parity with Labor today.
Turnbull's approval rating in the same time has shrunk dramatically, from 69 per cent to 51, a striking fall of 18 points. He's not much bigger than his party now.
The Fairfax Ipsos poll periodically asks voters to assess 11 attributes of the party leaders, and today's results are instructive.
The three biggest movements in public opinion all point to disappointment at Turnbull's inaction.
Is Turnbull a strong leader? Six months ago, 75 per cent of respondents said so. Today, 55 per cent say so. A slump of 20 per cent in six months is a dramatic change in the assessment of a leader.
Does he have a clear vision for Australia's future? Again, a sharp fall, down by 19 per cent.
The biggest letdown is in answer to this question: Is he a leader who has the ability to get things done? The number of those who say so has fallen by 25 per cent in six months.
The results show that the big realignment of public support is all about Turnbull. Bill Shorten's poll figures show only minimal change.
This isn't a sweet appreciation for the Opposition Leader but a bitter disappointment with the Prime Minister.
Yet Shorten has not been a mere bystander. He has applied pressure to Turnbull with big ideas.
First was Labor's proposal to reform negative gearing. It provoked Turnbull into running his first anti-Labor scare campaign.
The campaign textbook says this is a good idea. But for Turnbull it was not. It seemed to confirm to the public that he was just another politician.
Where were Turnbull's big ideas?
Now Shorten has pitched a royal commission into the banks. It's a populist stunt, but it has 65 per cent public support, according to today's poll.
The contrast between a bold opposition and a timorous government is working in Labor's favour.
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