No-pain-no-gain: High-road-low-road

NoPainNoGainThis post began as a comment on Paul’s last comment on my “Mainstream Radical Centrists: Where are they?“ column. Paul boiled down his response to this:

If you want to have a serious debate about reforms, go to countries that are hurting and that see the need for it. Like the UK. Though even there, I think that the City of London is far too powerful to let a mere 8-year lull in growth upset the banking apple-cart.

I kind of agree with what he’s said – that is I can see the sense in it – yet I think it’s one dimensional. I also think it’s part of the problem I was trying to address.

First, what’s true. Where rent-seeking is the main driver of some problem and where community suffering leads it to greater intolerance of this rent seeking and where there’s sufficient leadership in the governing class (which includes the media), then the suffering might turn up worthwhile reform, or at least, remove roadblocks to it. Occasionally nations rise to extraordinarily worthwhile departures from the norm when faced with sufficient difficulties.

But

But, but, but … Continue reading

Posted in Cultural Critique, Economics and public policy, Education, Inequality, Innovation, Philosophy, Political theory | 4 Comments

Mainstream Radical Centrists: Where are they?

Radical Centrist

Australia’s ‘economic miracle’ off the back of what might be called the ‘reform period’ which can be dated fairly neatly from late 1983 and the floating of the dollar to mid 2001 (which, IIRC was the date the ANTS tax reform package was introduced). It came about because people in the opinionosphere – initially led by academics with the torch being taken up by bureaucratic entrepreneurs like Alf Rattigan from the late 60s, broadening to most senior bureaucrats by the early 1980s. This growing movement forged a consensus about what was wrong with our economic policies and, by implication, what to do about it. As it grew into orthodoxy, ‘reform’ took on a sadly reductionist turn – with the big ideological slogan being deregulation – letting the market work.

Not only is the idea that you can reduce reform to a slogan, or even use the slogan to get your bearings is a misfortune. To get the slogan wrong looks like carelessness. All social activity of any sophistication involves a rich ecology of the public and the private. The disastrousness of this turn was concealed for some time by the fact that there was quite a lot of detritus hanging round after around a century of ad hoc protectionism and in such circumstances deregulation works with the stroke of a pen – at least for a while.

The thing is, the public sector has immense resources. It’s tragic that it’s not a hotbed of ideas. Politicians are busy people and can’t figure this stuff out for themselves. Of course line departments still need to deliver services, but I would argue that those aspiring to high office in the public service should have achieved and demonstrated some degree of sustained thoughfulness – as they might do for instance with ’sabbaticals’ during which they did, or participated with others in, worthwhile research and/or ‘think tank’ work. And that’s quite apart from the many hundreds of funded research and ‘think tank’ positions in government in research agencies within various portfolios. Pretty much every major department has a research agency – some of them are considerable. And there are government funded ‘think tanks’ like the PC.

Sadly these possibilities are barely realised. The enthusiasm and broad-mindedness with which many public servants begin their careers stands barely a chance amid the pervasive careerism of the public service, the fetters of groupthink.

Yet we’ve actually granted some of these agencies high degrees of independence – one would have thought precisely to enable such independence of mind. The Reserve Bank probably has more independence than any other government agency and it has a substantial research department. I’m no expert on its output and I know there’s lots of good work done there. But I doubt it would be a career enhancing move to offer a fairly thoroughgoing critique of the structure of banking from the Reserve’s research department or anywhere else in the bank.

But elsewhere such independence has been used inject far more edge into the public debate. In an unsympathetic review on Oct 28th 2010 entitled “King plays God” the Economist reported:

In a speech on October 25th … in New York, Mervyn King [then Governor of the bank of England] savaged big banks and criticised the new Basel 3 rules as too soft. Then he said what he really thought, arguing that “of all the many ways of organising banking, the worst is the one we have today.” Possible remedies included not just breaking up banks, but also “eliminating fractional reserve banking”— the centuries-old practice of banks taking in deposits and lending most of them out in riskier and longer-term loans. Having ignored finance for a decade the Bank of England now seems to want to reinvent it. Continue reading

Posted in Cultural Critique, Economics and public policy, Innovation | 8 Comments

What I’m reading: Things about the Parthenon YOU WON’T BELIEVE!!

What is the meaning of the relief sculpture above?

I recall when I was last on the Athenian Acropolis just over a year ago marvelling at the Parthenon, not just its emphatic and sublime beauty but also its strangeness. It’s so big and so magnificent. What the hell did this city with fewer citizens than Albury-Woodonga think it was doing? It’s easy to understand the economics of cathedrals of Europe as expressions of the power of feudal lords (of the spiritual, rather than the temporal realm) and the power of such systems to alienate ‘the people’ from their own material interests. But Athens was a democracy. The Ecclesia had to regularly authorise the massive funds necessary to keep going. Tons and tons of silver hoarded from Athens’ post Persian invasion empire were expended year after year. Sometimes Perekles had to do some persuading, but on each occasion he suceeded in securing ghe funds.

Which always brings me back to the strangeness – which we should expect to be barely fathomable - of the Ancient Athenians. What was their relationship to their Gods? Hard to say. Plato writes about the Gods in a way that’s proto-Christian and easily absorbed into mono-theism. (It’s a long time since I read him, but I think he even refers to ‘God’ quite often though that might be the work of the translator). Anyway, this temple is dedicated to Athena. Who the hell is Athena to the Athenians? Do they take her story and the story of her founding Athens with the planting of a spear from an olive branch seriously? As metaphor? And her enemy Poseidon in matters Athenian? And all the others? Our own experience is so far removed from the Athenians, and the myth of Athens and its remaining artefacts are so entrancing to our imagination that it’s almost impossible not to read our world back on them – there they were just trying to give birth to our modern world – Thomas Jefferson, Coca-Cola, holiday packages, a secure retirement income package – that kind of thing.

So coming across Joan Connelly’s very substantial book for academics and interested lay readers alike - The Parthenon Enigma - was a great thing. That sculpture you see above is a key part of the Parthenon Frieze, sitting immediately over the Eastern Entrance. (At the other end from the grand entrance to the Acropolis – the Propylaea group of buildings. The traditional interpretation is that the girl on the right is receiving the peplos - a cloth honouring Athena in a contemporary festival of thanks for Athena. There are problems with this interpretation – most particularly that other Greek temple friezes depict age-old mythic, not contemporary events. Anyway Joan Connelly has an alternative proposal. The sculpture celebrates Athens’ founding human sacrifice. Yes, you read correctly – human sacrifice.

While she was researching the role of women in the Ancient Greek world, she came across some newly discovered lines of Euripides lost play Erechtheus. Erechteheus is Athens’ first king and, having consulted the oracle at Delphi, is told that he can save Athens from defeat in battle at the hands of its enemies by sacrificing his daughter. Erechtheus’s wife and his daughter think it’s a great idea. Indeed the Erechtheus’s other two daughters think it’s such a great idea that they swear to kill themseles once their sister is sacrificed. (They seem to be in the sculpture as the left two figures, each older than the sacrificial daughter and each carrying on their head cushions that contain their funeral shroud.) The new Euripides fragment, deciphered in 1967 from the wrappings of an ancient Egyptian mummy contains a powerful speech by Erechtheus’s wife Praxithea. (That’s one of the things about the ethos of Athens – they’re really big on sacrifice for the common good – they think of that as the very foundation of democracy – the only way in which it can hope to fend off oligarchy. Just read the magnificent Athenian Oath to see what I mean.)

Anyway, that is the kind of interpretation that captures the strangeness of Ancient Athens. And, particularly in the midst of lots of reviews saying that Connolly’s interpretation seems quite compelling (though there’s been no lay down misère within the academy which is not a surprise), it seems more compelling to my very inexpert brain than the alternative.

Anyway it’s a thick book, much preoccupied with its thesis – and I’ll probably skim much of the second half – as it reinterprets the entire frieze around the Pathenon according to this new key. But at $10 at your local book grocer, I’m loving its embrace of the strangeness of Ancient Athens.

And I like someone whose energies radiate out from their central preoccupations. Continue reading

Posted in Art and Architecture, Cultural Critique, History, Philosophy, Political theory, Religion | 6 Comments

The death of newspapers: does it matter?

cartoon20090330With Fairfax culling 120 journalists (in the wake of previous mass redundancies), Murdoch/News apparently contemplating more cuts, and newspapers in general losing money hand over fist, some pundits are suggesting that Fairfax at least is likely to stop publishing the Monday to Friday print versions of both The Age and Sydney Morning Herald by the end of this year.

The print versions of Murdoch’s tabloids will probably last a while longer, because they are more tightly focused on the populist, consumer end of the market, while The Age and SMH have attempted vainly to be all things to all readers, thereby alienating grumpy older readers like me with rivers of celebrity gossip and clickbait.

But when the last general print newspaper stops publication, will we care?  Will it make any real difference?

Continue reading

Posted in Journalism, Media, Politics - national | 8 Comments

More travesties of the proverbial: Law of the jungle edition

rudyard kipling the law of the jungle for the strength of the wolf is the pack - Google Search: Keen readers of this blog will know that occasionally, just occasionally I identify a saying or concept which has somehow come to signify something close to the opposite of what its progenitor had intended. Examples include the theory of the second best, the central point of which is that if one finds oneself in a second best situation, the best you can do is aim for a second best optimum and further, by implication, if you aim for a ‘first best’ outcome (using ‘first best’ principles) you’ll end up doing worse than second best.

Likewise the original schema of the arguments now associated with Coase was not to lead to a situation where one imagined transactions costs to be zero and re-allocated property rights, but rather to point to the historically contingent way in which transactions costs had been minimised by particular allocations of property. (I think this is the case, but readers with a deeper knowledge of Coase may be able to correct me. I do know the Theory of the Second Best stuff however – though it beats me why it’s not called the Theorem of the Second Best.

Anyway, here’s a newie that I’ve just come across.

When people speak of ‘the law of the jungle’, they usually mean unions restrained and ruthless competition, with everyone out solely for his own advantage. But the phrase was coined by Rudyard Kipling, in The Second Jungle Book, and he meant something very different. His law of the jungle is a law that wolves in a pack are supposed to obey. His poem says that ‘the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack’, and it states the basic principles of social co-operation. Its provisions are a judicious mixture of individualism and collectivism, prescribing graduated and qualified rights for fathers of families, mothers with cubs, and young wolves, which constitute an elementary system of welfare services. Of course, Kipling meant his poem to give moral instruction to human children, but he probably thought it was at least roughly correct as a description of the social behaviour of wolves and other wild animals.

J. L. Mackie. 1978, “The Law of the Jungle: Moral Alternatives and Principles of Evolution”, Philosophy, Volume 53, Issue 206, October 1978, pp 455 – 464.

 

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Crowdsourcing credentials

I was at a PC function yesterday on ‘disruptive technology’ and said, in a rather crabby way, that I’d been talking about the significance of informing consumers about the quality of products for a long, long time and now, it’s only when people can actually see Uber and Airbnb in front of their eyes that they’re starting to think maybe it’s worth thinking about. As I said, this is basically Stigler stuff – from the 1950s. But little interest had been taken in it. Anyway there you go.

There’s something else I’ve been banging on about. The importance of credentialling on the merits, rather than by getting all the rent collectors’ wagons in a circle and arranging some cosy little occupational licensing agreement. I recall Anthony Goldbloom telling me that he wanted Kaggle to help the nerds in the corner who were gun data scientists get appreciated for their skill. Kaggle crowdsources and makes far more rigorous data science credentials – because it can rank data scientists by getting them to compete with one another.

Micro-economic reform, if it hadn’t degraded into deregulatory chat from the business class seats at 30,000 feet, might have made more of a thing about occupational training, licensing, credentialling and ongoing performance appraisal of high skill professions than warfies and mine workers, but alas that’s not how the game’s been played. No-one said that if we’re really going to get the best out of tele-health we’d better ensure that doctors looking after their incomes are the gatekeepers of the system.

Anyway, I was put in mind of all this when Tim van Gelder sent me this amazing article about how, just as the hoi polloi can discern with considerable accuracy who’s any good at playing footy, they can do something similar shown videos of surgeons.

Dr. Thomas Lendvay and other researchers’ … findings, published in the Journal of Surgical Research and the Journal of Endourology, show remarkable agreement between the evaluations of laypeople and those of surgical experts upon seeing videos of surgeons’ hands performing practice procedures.

What’s more, in one of the studies, it took just 10 hours to collect feedback from 1,500 laypeople versus more than three weeks from three busy surgeons. Further, 90% of laypersons’ evaluations included contextual comments to explain ratings, versus 20% of surgeons’ evaluations.

Imagine if the next wave of micro-economic reform we comprehensively redit competition policy with a particular focus on getting the best partnership between rapidly evolving AI and decision support tools and human skill. The problem is, you can’t just deregulate it all. You have to deregulate and re-regulate on the merits. Something we’re not so experienced at. Still  … no time like the present to start.

Posted in Economics and public policy, Information, Innovation | Leave a comment

Proroguing Parliament, double dissolution elections and other constitutional delights

It appears clear that the Governor-General (acting on the advice of the Prime Minister as per Westminster convention) can under Constitution section 5 prorogue the current Parliament and then appoint a new session to commence on 18 April. Presumably that is what occurred this morning by Proclamation pursuant to section 5. This is a reserve power at least in some circumstances, so the Governor-General probably could if he chose have made up his own mind about it rather than simply taking the advice of the Prime Minister. It would appear that he chose not to do so and simply took Turnbull’s advice.

In that sense one might think that Turnbull has outflanked the Senate resolution of last Friday not to reconvene without unanimous support. However, as ABC psephologist Antony Green tweeted this morning, while the Governor-General’s proclamation under section 5 can require both Houses of Parliament to reconvene on a specified date to commence a new session, as far as I can see neither section 5 nor any other constitutional power of the Governor-General would prevent the Senate from immediately resolving to adjourn until a later date in the newly appointed session of Parliament (say after 11 May when a double dissolution is impossible).

However that too might be thwarted by the government with the Governor-General’s concurrence. It may well be that the very step of the Senate immediately adjourning on 18 April would constitute a failure to pass the ABCC bill within the meaning of Constitution section 57 (the deadlock/double dissolution provision) such as to allow Turnbull to advise the Governor-General to dissolve both Houses and call a double dissolution election in any event.

There’s never been a more exciting time to be a constitutional lawyer (except 1975 – but I was only a young lad then – and …).

Posted in Law, Politics - national | 16 Comments