Dead Ted Bounce?

This article is pretty amazing. Basically, even though Ted Cruz is the only viable candidate in a position to deny Trump the nomination and basically the entire GOP elite is behind his effort to take as many delegates from Trump as possible, still basically no Senators will endorse him or in some cases even talk to him. Here's a run-down of numerous Republican senators who either politely or acidly said they're telling Cruz to go jump in a lake because they hate him so much.

Trump Camp: Don't Worry, We Got This Delegate Thing

Trump adviser on delegate math assures Trump-supporting members of Congress that he'll have the nomination wrapped up after California in June.

Trump, Cruz & Kasich Not Ever Very Popular in GOP

We're hearing a lot about Donald Trump's dismal favorability numbers, also about Hillary Clinton's and then finally a steady backdraft of commentary about how the Democrats aren't much more united than the Republicans. This is not accurate. Clinton's favorability ratings are not at all where you would want them to be right now if you're a Democrat. But a look at the polls shows how differently each party sees all its candidates.

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Rove Defects to #EventuallyTrump

Politico has an article today suggesting that Karl Rove - despite being or having been a hardcore anti-Trumpite - is warming to a Trump candidacy. That's not precisely what it says, when you read down into the piece. Or at least there's a good deal of hedging involved. What it seems to amount to is that the big SuperPac which Rove founded and remains the moving force of - Crossroads USA - is now telling donors that if Trump is nominee he can actually win so there's still plenty we can do with your money.

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Sad!

Back at the 2011 White House Correspondents Association dinner, President Obama beat Donald Trump like a protester. This year, when he's at the center of the political world, Trump is saying he won't attend.

On Some Issues, Moral Appeals Don't Seem To Work

It’s a good thing to see Deutsche Bank, PayPal, Bruce Springsteen and these other bigshots and big institutions boycotting North Carolina because of the state law overturning Charlotte’s law on which bathrooms transsexuals can use. And it's a good thing to see the state backtracking. But you wonder with Alec MacGillis why none of the high rollers thought of boycotting the seventeen states that have denied Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act to millions of their low-income citizens. Millions. And that includes North Carolina. I am afraid it goes back to something I wrote about twenty-five years ago: why social rights issues that cut across class and sometimes partisan lines (such as abortion and gay rights, e.g. Cheney family) can summon enormous influence on their behalf, while those that predominately affect the poor and low-income people cannot. Moral appeals are clearly not enough in these instances.

A Trap Of His Own Making

The deep enmity toward Ted Cruz within the Senate is coming back to bite him in new and maybe unexpected ways.

As Lauren Fox talked to GOP senators for this piece, one of the dynamics that emerged was that even if senators might be inclined to soften their loathing of Cruz as a way of heading off a disastrous Trump nomination, many of them had already endorsed other candidates earlier in the race who have since dropped out. The prospect of endorsing a second time and having that person lose, too, runs the risk of making individual senators look fairly ridiculous.

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Not as Crazy as It Sounds

A member of the Republican National Committee, who will sit on the convention rules committee, made a bit of a stir today when he said that 1237 wasn't the magic number for Trump. It was probably more like 1100 delegates. He wasn't saying that 1100 guaranteed Trump the nomination but that if he has more than 1100 he'll be in a strong position to convince the remainder to come over and back him. A lot of people reacted like Randy Evans, the RNC committeeman, is crazy. But I'm not so sure. I won't say that Evans has any special insight into the matter, at least not more than any other high ranking Republican. But I think he's got a better handle on things than a lot of people who are chattering about this at the moment.

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I'm Voting for Bernie, but on One Condition

“He’s not going to get the nomination, is he?” my wife asks anxiously as she gazes out of the kitchen window at the Bernie for President sign on our front lawn. No, I assure her, and he certainly won’t win Maryland on April 26. I’m voting for Bernie, and my wife may, too, but we’re doing so on the condition that we don’t think he will get the nomination. If he were poised to win, I don’t know whether I’d vote for him, because I fear he would be enormously vulnerable in a general election, even against Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, and I’m also not sure whether he is really ready for the job of president.

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A Very, Very Blue State

Let me follow up on my post below about voting in New York State. I was just emailing with a reader about how blue New York is, how dominant Democrats are and thus how much the national parties care about voting rates in the state (i.e., not much).

We all know that New York is now a key part of the Democratic electoral bloc. But I remember back in 2012 and 2008 too having a realization of just how blue it is. Probably even bluer than you think.

Here's an example.

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Excellent News for John McCain!

McCain "at a loss" after Ryan bows out and wrestles with reality of a Trump or Cruz nomination.

Please Send Us the Latest Reports

As you can see from our feature story today, Trumpites aren't just after protesters now. There are widespread and credible reports of threats - sometimes escalating to the level of death threats - against anti-Trump Republicans and particularly potential or already chosen convention delegates. Not every threat is equally serious or equally well documented. But we want to hear about and share with readers all the legitimate reports that are out there, especially because many are going to pop up in local and regional news sources. So when you see examples in the news or perhaps when you've heard of stories that we might be able to confirm ourselves, please drop us a line via email. As always the link is immediately below the TPM logo at the upper right.

New York, We Suck

We've seen a lot of attention and schadenfreude directed at the fact that two of Trump's kids won't even be able to vote for him in the Republican primary. And it's not like they missed a deadline a week ago. It was months ago. But here's the thing. Our voting system here in New York sucks.

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Slouching Toward Cleveland

So, yes, anti-Trump Republicans, and especially would be delegates are getting death threats from angry Trumpites.

Convention? What Convention?

As I've mentioned or hinted a few times, I think the mix of the Garland stalemate and Donald Trump or Ted Cruz at the top of the critic will lead to big Republican losses in the Senate. Big is relative - but enough to push the chamber into the Democrats' hands in 2017. We're now seeing the first signs of vulnerable GOP senators saying they're going to be too busy to make it to Cleveland for the convention in July.

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