This is a long story that I’ll try to make short, because I’m trying to make a single, simple point.

Years ago shock jock and right-wing political commenter Mark Steyn, using the vehicle of the conservative magazine National Review, made disparaging remarks about climate scientist Michael Mann. These remarks were viewed by Mann and others as likely libelous. It is important to note that these remarks were both systematically and coincidentally part of larger efforts to disparage climate science, and climate scientists. I won’t discuss here why anyone would do that.

A law suit ensued, and the details of that suit are complicated and beyond the scope of this blog post, and, frankly, beyond my expertise as a non-lawyer.

More recently, the United States Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness, chaired by Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), conducted a hearing called “Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate.”

One of the witnesses called by Cruz to testify was Mark Steyn. It was not clear to me, at first, why Steyn was called as an expert witness. He is at most a political commenter, and has no verifiable expertise on climate science, or the nature of science and scientific inquiry. After reading his testimony, and seeing the hearings, however, I developed a hypothesis as to why Steyn was involved, though I’m not sure how unusual this action was, or how it could have been organized.

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Current and recommended books on climate change.
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The law suit in question is certainly an important law suit, because it speaks to how anti-science forces can be allowed, or not allowed, to attack scientists. I’m not sure what the legal ramifications of one decision or another might be. A recent similar law suit in Canada found in favor of the scientist being attacked, and that might have helped mitigate against the growing problem that young people looking into science careers must increasingly consider that they will not just be scientists, but targets of politically motivated attacks, sometimes personal.

Mark Steyn’s Racist Remarks About Two Judges

In his written Testimony, Steyn, who un ironically refers to himself as a “human rights activist” (he isn’t) takes to task Judge Natalia Combs Greene, who was on the DC Appeals court earlier in the history of the Mann law suit, using what might be considered racist code words (Note: Judge Greene is African American). He referred to the “benighted jurisdiction” in which “the case was assigned to Natalia Combs Greene, a since reprimanded landlord-and-tenant judge appointed by President Clinton…After a botched ruling in which she confused the parties, she said the case was “complicated” and shuffled it off on a colleague…”

Yes, the dog-whistles are hard to hear, but that is why we call them dog whistles. The mention of appointment of a confused, shuffling judge by a Democratic president with links to the landlord-tenant court is clear enough, though, that when Steyn then moves on to Judge Vanessa Ruiz, a hispanic judge who currently sits on the court, we can see similar echoes of intolerance and innuendo. According to Steyn’s written Congressional testimony, “Judge Ruiz is an activist judge [with] an appalling backlog of cases” and various failings. “…it may be,” he told Congress, “that the judge is just an incompetent sloth who’s spending far too much time with the Carnegie Endowment working on world peace.”

Elsewhere in the testimony, Steyn claims Judge Greene “is not competent to rule” and “Judge Vanessa Ruiz is so lethargic that … global warming will have kicked in” first. Steyn goes further to note that the issue at hand in this law suit properly belongs in what the English judge Lord Moulton referred to as the “Domain of Manners.” This is the set of social rules by which proper people, proper English people, act properly, without having to be told how to act by some judge.

It is hard to observe these comments and not come away feeling assailed by class bias, racist innuendo, and self serving biased rhetoric.

Mark Steyn’s Use Of Ted Cruz’s Congressional Committee

But, actually, I digress, because while the racist subtext is important, it is not what struck me as most odd. What struck me as odd was the apparent fact that Mark Steyn appeared before the US Congress in order to argue his side of a law suit in the Washington DC Appeals Court. I assume that to some extent members of congress have some idea of what a given witness will provide in a hearing, so a second question emerges. Did the majority in this subcommittee intentionally provide a litigant in a law suit with the opportunity to argue their case?

And Steyn does use his written and oral testimony to argue the case, in a few ways. First, he simply argues that the law suit is invalid, and in a few places, argues that people should view Dr. Mann suspiciously. In other words, he says that he, Steyn, is right, and Mann is both wrong and a bad person. Second, he argues as I note above, and in other places in the testimony, that the judges on the Appeals Court are incompetent and biased in various ways. Third, he argues that the Washington DC Appeals Court is itself a rather messed-up judicial body. He told the US Congress that he has been “ensnared in the dysfunctional court system of the District of Columbia,” which is “a sclerotic and incompetent … court system … incapable of serving the people it’s meant to serve.,” which has “feckless lethargic judges … reward serial plaintiffs for nuisance suits.” And so on.

So, here is my question. Is this normal? Do people get to argue their legal cases in front of Congress? Does Congress normally, or even occasionally, bring people in as witnesses for this purpose? Or is this simply Mark Steyn taking advantage of the odd fact that he was asked to testify as an expert in something he admitted (as part of his testimony) that he is not an expert on?

Does Mark Steyn Need Better Legal Advice?

I asked around a bit, imposing on colleagues who have some experience with congressional testimony and various legal affairs. The general consensus seems to be that while grandstanding before congress is common, arguing your legal case in this manner is not. Indeed, one lawyer told me that he would never advise a client to do what Steyn has done (or, for that matter, what he does here) while in the middle of a court case. I has also been suggested that Steyn has, perhaps, been filing his briefings in the case separately from the other defendants precisely because they do not agree with his shock-jock strategy.

Was Ted Cruz using Mark Steyn as a tool? Was Mark Steyn using the Congress of the United States of America as a tool? Either seems a possibility. My advice to both: If you are going to use a tool, try to find a sharp one.

Comments

  1. #1 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
    December 22, 2015

    The entire freak show made no sense; it accomplished nothing of value to science, to human knowledge, to law and order, to policy…. it would have had equal import if the farce had been performed in a dimly lit pub in Burro Alley, among opium eaters, between dog acts.

  2. #2 @nicole473
    Mars
    December 22, 2015

    Steyn is completely despicable, as are most members of our RWNJ Congress.
    What these people have done re Dr. Mann is beyond horrific, and it makes me fear for the future of scientific inquiry.

  3. #3 Greg Laden
    December 22, 2015

    Dog acts or dog fights?

  4. #4 Joe
    Earth
    December 22, 2015

    It’s possible he’s trying to immunize his defamatory statements against future legal attacks by making them in a “privileged” venue–i.e. A congressional hearing.

  5. #5 Rich Horton
    December 22, 2015

    I must say, and you can trust me as I am an expert in diagnosing such conditions, you are an idiot.

  6. #6 See Noevo
    December 22, 2015

    “It is hard to observe these comments and not come away feeling assailed by class bias, racist innuendo, and self serving biased rhetoric.”

    Greg, if you’ve recovered from your feeling of being assailed, could you help me understand your dog whistle translation mechanism?
    I’m trying to see (or hear) the class bias and racist innuendo in Steyns words.

  7. #7 Brainstorms
    December 22, 2015

    Yes, Mark Steyn is definitely an idiot.

  8. #8 See Noevo
    December 22, 2015

    Congress might actually have a fairly long history of allowing non-experts to testify before it.
    A quick Google found this.
    (I think Christie Brinkley really stands out.)
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/2015/05/11/20-celebrities-who-testified-before-congress

  9. #9 Rattus Norvegicus
    December 22, 2015

    Isn’t Steyn pro-se?

  10. #10 David Appell
    United States
    December 22, 2015

    Simple answer – Mark Steyn isn’t interested in legal strategy, he’s interested in selling books, and so on getting on TV/radio as much as possible.

    Rush Limbaugh also doesn’t rely on being right. He relies on being controversial. He gets more attention for the dumb things he says than he ever would for saying truthful things.

    Steyn is a Limbaugh-era hack willing to debase himself on the low road for whatever personal ($) benefits he can find.

  11. #11 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 22, 2015

    The new normal in the Trumpiverse. Blovirrhea 24/7.

  12. #12 MikeN
    December 23, 2015

    Better legal advice? The idea that he should stop talking about it in the middle of the court case makes sense, but the case has been going on for four years and shows no sign of ending. Is it appropriate for commenters to be forced into silence because someone filed a lawsuit? At what point would it be appropriate to again comment about Michael Mann?

  13. #13 MikeN
    December 23, 2015

    Mark Steyn is a human rights activist, and under the standards of litigation that Michael Mann is seeking to impose on the country, you could find yourself in court for saying that Mark Steyn is not.

  14. #14 Hyperbole Tweets
    December 23, 2015

    Greg is calling Twitter skeptics “flying monkeys” with something about Steyn’s ass:

    https://twitter.com/gregladen/status/679531273711271940

  15. #15 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    As I remember it, the New York Times and Washington Post joined Mark Steyn’s side, because if Michael Mann’s litigation were to become the standard for defamation journalism would cease to exist .
    Freedom of speech would cease to exist.

    Saying Michael Mann found cover under the same regime that would cover for serial pedophiles – which is true – would be grounds for a lawfare, and the guy with the deepest pockets would win every time.

    Penn State is so well endowed (talking about the money, not the other thing.), the truth no longer matters.

    That’s the legal standard you are advocating for Laden. I have to agree with the expert witness at #5.

    You are an idiot.

  16. #16 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    Don’t go all Cartwiright on us Greg–

    If we forget that this is a comedy of manners, or the lack of them. only the blowhardists will win.

  17. #17 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Freedom of speech would cease to exist.

    What utter rubbish.

  18. #18 StevoR
    Adelaide Hills, South Australia
    December 23, 2015

    “Elsewhere in the testimony, Steyn claims Judge Greene “is not competent to rule” and “Judge Vanessa Ruiz is so lethargic that … global warming will have kicked in” first. “

    Er, hasn’t Steyn just thereby destroyed his own “argument” that, y’know that stuff ain’t real despite,well, all the scientific evidence otherwise?

    Mark Steyn, what a douche.

  19. #19 StevoR
    December 23, 2015

    @13. MikeN : Citation. Seriously. Required. there dude.

  20. #20 StevoR
    December 23, 2015

    @5. Rich Horton : For clarity here you did mean Steyn there right?

  21. #21 Useless Eater
    December 23, 2015

    Speaking of biased, self serving rhetoric, you sir epitomize that description. What a joke you are.

  22. #22 Jinx Thinks
    California
    December 23, 2015

    If the science is correct why sue a person who disagrees with your Opinion. I was an environmental engineer for 30 + years. I relied on data not feelings. When a few scientists who rely on global warming for their paychecks I throw that OPINION out. When I did studies I usually threw out the two ends of the data, high and low. If one does that and checks satellite data, global warming is within statistical devences. I am by the by a scientist. Now I am sure I will be attacked for spelling or some such I don’t care, study study study and the truth will out.

  23. #23 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Mann is not suing steyn because he disagrees with his opinion. That is pure ignorance of the matter. Mann is suing steyn because steyn alleged that mann committed fraud when every single investigation into Mann’s work has shown that he hasnt. Steyn is aware of these investigations and their conclusions, so to know of them and still allege fraud is libelous. That’s what this is about. If you think it’s about a disagreement of opinions, then please kindly articulate what these opinions are.

  24. #24 StevoR
    December 23, 2015

    @21. Useless Eater : Who are there?

    If Steyn we agree – if not, not so much. Clarification please?

  25. #25 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    cabc…..you need to go back and read what Steyn wrote. No where did he accuse Mann of committing fraud. He called the ‘hockey stick’ fraudulent, which many others have stated previously. Steyn himself has collected extensive public comments from notable scientists regarding the very questionable manipulations of the data sets to show a specific outcome.. Ultimately, fraud and fraudulent are two different words, with different legal meanings. Mann’s lawsuit is frivolous and opened the door for Steyn’s countersuit, which Mann appears to be desperately trying to delay facing for as long as possible. Mann made a habit of suing critics and whatever side you fall onto in this whole kerfuffle, it should be blatantly obvious that Mann made a very bad decision in suing Steyn.

  26. #26 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, Austrailia
    December 23, 2015

    MikeP: “No where did he accuse Mann of committing fraud”

    Okay, I give up. Please explain to us why two judges and one appeals court have said Steyn did accuse Dr. Mann of fraud. Is the USA court system socialist communist lap-dog liberal Obama lovers?

  27. #27 flyguy
    ointment
    December 23, 2015

    Unlike out “benighted” pasty-white Canadian friends to the north, we have 10 things not up for a vote in the US: the Bill of Rights.

  28. #28 Jim O'Sullivan
    New York
    December 23, 2015

    “. . . the details of that suit are complicated and beyond the scope of this blog post, and, frankly, beyond my expertise as a non-lawyer ”
    If it’s beyond the scope of this blog post, why devote this blog post to it? Especially since it’s painfully obvious that, yes, the topic is beyond your expertise.

  29. #29 Allen
    Atlanta
    December 23, 2015

    Forgetting for a moment the substance of this debate, I’ll say that I find it more than troubling that there is not a single mention of the 1st Amendment in either the piece above or the comments below it.

  30. #30 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
    December 23, 2015

    Allen: “Forgetting for a moment the substance of this debate, I’ll say that I find it more than troubling that there is not a single mention of the 1st Amendment in either the piece above or the comments below it.”

    No one mentioned the 13th Amendment either; do you find that troubling? The 4th Amendment also was not mentioned. And the 3rd.

  31. #31 StevoR
    December 23, 2015

    @22. Jinx Thinks :

    I won’t attack your spellings. FSM knows I suck so bad at typing myslef. (Among all too many other words!)

    But evidence and citations and reasons to think you are right instead of, y’know 98% of the experts in the field -that would be required and I don’t think has been provided by you yet.

    Y’wanna remedy that please and back up what you say with actual evidence thanks?

    Flip, I’ll even make it easy for ya – just complete the following sentence for us please then go collect your Nobel prize in physics :

    I don’t agree with virtually every climate expert on the globe because of __________________ which shows ______________ is really responsible instead / or /& ______ and my convincing evidence for this is _________ . Plus the scientists who have dedicated countless years of effort to observing and measuring and understanding using a vast array of different methodologies and multiple lines of evidence and approaches overlooked this point here that ____________ is really true because ___________.

    Go on, sure can fill in those blanks! Oh wait, no I’m not. Quite the reverse really. But do try to prove me wrong if you can please.

  32. #32 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Lots of ad hominem from the claque but nothing of substance on the odoriferous way in which Steyn used his Congressional testimony for special pleading. Or the way that the opportunity for him to do so was set up, and why.

  33. #33 AnGiogoir
    Ireland
    December 23, 2015

    Regarding your dog-whistle accusation.
    Mr. Steyn was commenting on the shambolic handling of his free speech case by the judge. Your attempt to assign a racist motivation to his commentary is bizarre and even laughable.

  34. #34 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Ultimately, fraud and fraudulent are two different words, with different legal meanings.

    Rubbish.

    You are invited to provide links to legal references in support of this nonsense.

  35. #35 StevoR
    December 23, 2015

    @25. MikeP : “it should be blatantly obvious that Mann made a very bad decision in suing Steyn.”

    I think a court is just about to prove you wrong – for a certain value of “just about” given the glacial pace of “justice” here..

    Mind you, one thing is beyond all doubt and that is that Mann is about a umpteen zillion times the scientist that Steyn ever was or could claim to be. Based on, y’know who each man really is.

  36. #36 Pete Freans
    December 23, 2015

    Steyn’s involvement in challenging climate science is based on his argument that your discipline has been poisoned by politics, progressive ideologies, and money. I don’t believe he has ever claimed to be a scientist. As such, he has complied two books worth of climate scientists who disagree with your assessments on climate change. Nevertheless, your position as a scientist grants you no greater protection from critical speech than any ordinary citizen. The attempts to use the courts and government to silence critics (as many climate scientist advocate) is chilling in the classic Orwellian sense.

  37. #37 Desertphile
    Anywhere but Earth
    December 23, 2015

    Pete Freans: “Steyn’s involvement in challenging climate science is based on his argument that your discipline has been poisoned by politics, progressive ideologies, and money.”

    The same is true of believe who believe Earth is flat. It also applies to people who believe they are being fumigated by CHEMTRAILS. =SHRUG!= Steyn has not been able to produce any evidence for his paranoid alarmist conspiracy idiation.

    “As such, he has complied two books worth of climate scientists who disagree with your assessments on climate change.”

    No.

  38. #38 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    sn doesn’t see the ugliness of steyn’s comments, but since he’s said Neil Degrasse Tyson has an “Affirmative action Ph.D.” and “I think of Neil Degrasse Tyson as science’s Al Sharpton” (and has said even more disturbing things about the poor, handicapped, women, and others) it isn’t the fact that steyn’s comments lacked the dog whistle, it’s that sn is such a disgusting person he doesn’t care.

    I relied on data not feelings. When a few scientists who rely on global warming for their paychecks I throw that OPINION out.

    When you refer to scientists doing this for money are you are not relying on evidence but on your own ignorant belief of the myth that thousands of scientists around the world are getting rich from their research. That’s an opinion, not data.

    When I did studies I usually threw out the two ends of the data, high and low.

    Throwing out measurements simply because you don’t like them, or to obtain an analysis result that you like, is one of the first things we teach not to do in freshman statistics. Michigan’s DEQ did this with water quality readings in Flint – tossed out enough readings until they got readings for lead content that were low enough to be acceptable. It’s a sign of ignorance, dishonesty, and all around shitty knowledge. And here you admit it. You’re a scientist? No, you are a charlatan.

  39. #39 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    @MikeP
    Steyn wrote that Mann “has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science”. If you don’t think that statement is an allegation of fraud, would you kindly give me an example of a statement that is?

  40. #40 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Pete Freans

    your position as a scientist grants you no greater protection from critical speech than any ordinary citizen.

    As Steyn may soon discover, there is no legal distinction between a scientist and an ordinary citizen relevant here. Both are protected alike from libel.

    The attempts to use the courts and government to silence critics (as many climate scientist advocate) is chilling in the classic Orwellian sense.

    Since suing for *libel* in no way silences any substantive criticism of climate science your invocation of Orwell is self-serving rhetoric.

  41. #41 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    bbd, #32.
    consult a dictionary.
    Fraud is a noun with specific legal associations.
    Fraudulent is an adjective with both legal association as well as broader common usage. An act of fraud is a fraudulent act, but it is not legally true that a fraudulent act is an act of fraud.
    Common usage of the word fraudulent is most similar to the word, deceptive.

    It is fraudulent to continue to state that Steyn accused Mann of fraud.

    This is why most media organizations are backing Steyn. If his language was clearly libelous, they would not be doing so.

  42. #42 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    Desertphile, #37.
    The courts have not ruled on this at all yet.

  43. #43 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    @MikeP
    What would steyn have to say about Mann to fit your understanding of what constitutes an allegation of fraud?

  44. #44 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    cabc, #37
    An example of an allegation of fraud would be to say “Dr. Maxx selectively plotted data to support a trendline for the sole purpose of securing research grants.”

    The colorful comparison to Sandusky vile acts is over-the-top, but is not a direct accusation of fraud. Libel and defamation laws have a very high hurdle and it seems next to impossible that Mann’s lawsuit will meet with success.

  45. #45 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 23, 2015

    Yeah, ‘fraudulent’ can mean ‘fraud-like’. It depends on context and deeper reading.

    Awaiting MikeP’s response to #36…

  46. #46 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 23, 2015

    Never mind me @45.

    MP, So you’re saying the legal standard requires a higher level of specificity? Sounds dodgy…

  47. #47 JACK WALTERS
    Dallas
    December 23, 2015

    I see many problems with Michael Mann’s suing people to avoid disclosing his observational meta data; eliminating the well known medieval warm period to fit his hypothesis (notice I didn’t say “settled science”); and bullying his climate colleagues (read those climategate e-mails and try to tell me he wasn’t pushing those with skeptical comments to hide the decline). Since the likes of NY Times, Washington Post, NBC and typical left leaning “green” press giants filed amicus briefs in support of the 1st amendment and Steyn, I do think that this is also a First Amendment issue. I also believe that Steyn will find no shortage of Ivy League and other top scientists ready to testify on his behalf against one of the least liked scientists in the country. But how about a bit of levity surrounding this: http://linkis.com/www.youtube.com/0fTON

  48. #48 Desertphile
    Anywhere but Earth
    December 23, 2015

    JACK WALTERS: “I see many problems with Michael Mann’s suing people to avoid disclosing his observational meta data….”

    Er.. ah… as soon as Dr. Mann does that, do complain to someone, m’kay? Thanks.

  49. #49 A.clark141
    December 23, 2015

    You’re all coming here judging mark even though he is quite correct. As for dog whistling, that sounds like some kind of mental disorder to me, no such thing, perhaps you side with the lunatics over at black lives matter, but sanity says otherwise.

  50. #50 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    MikeP, you still aren’t getting it. It’s not about the Sandusky comparison. It’s about the statement that Mann “has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science”. Is this not an allegation of fraud? If I said that Roy Spencer molested and tortured satellite data to fit his views on global warming, would you honestly not interpret that as me calling Spencer a fraud?

  51. #51 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    Absolutely requires a higher level specificity.
    Particularly when involving ‘journalists and other commentators” with public personalities…..which Mann is when he started on the lecture/public speaking circuits, TV, and other gigs.

  52. #52 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Jack Walters
    Every single large scale reconstruction done to date has confirmed the conclusions of Mann’s various hockey sticks. They all show late twentieth century warmth is unprecedented in the timespans that they cover and they all show that the medieval climate anomaly was not warmer than present. The most recent and most comprehensive reconstruction ever done, the pages 2k reconstruction, shows this as well.

  53. #53 MikeP
    December 23, 2015

    cabc, #49. I think we’re talking across each other.

    The “tortured” line directly followed a “like Sandusky…” in Steyn’s comments. He was colorfully comparing the two.
    But its my understanding that the issue in question isn’t that statement, but rather the other “the man behind the fraudulent ‘hockey-stick'” statement that is the crux of the suit.

  54. #54 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    So steyn is saying Mann’s work is fraudulent but he isn’t a fraud? Since the hockey stick has been shown to not be fraudulent, a reasonable person would conclude that that statement bears a reckless disregard for the truth. And a reckless disregard for the truth is partly what this lawsuit is about.

  55. #55 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, Austrailia
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: So steyn is saying Mann’s work is fraudulent but he isn’t a fraud? Since the hockey stick has been shown to not be fraudulent, a reasonable person would conclude that that statement bears a reckless disregard for the truth. And a reckless disregard for the truth is partly what this lawsuit is about.”

    Considering no scientists except the tiny few “free market” ideologues believe (or claim to believe) “the” so-called “hockey stick” is “fraudulent,” the assertion that it is fraudulent is a political act— the exact same behavior these clowns insist they object to.

    A list of hockey sticks, compiled by Jim Milks of Seeing the Environmental Forest.

    Crowley 2000: Used both his own and Mann et al. (1999)’s hockey sticks to examine the cause of temperature changes over the past 1,000 years. Found that natural forcings could not explain twentieth century warming without the effect of greenhouse gases.

    Huang, et al. 2000: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 616 boreholes from around the globe.

    Bertrand et al. 2002: Reconstructed solar output, volcanic activity, land use changes, and greenhouse gas concentrations since AD 1000, then computed the expected temperature changes due to those forcings. Compared the computed temperature changes with two independent temperature reconstructions.

    Esper et al. 2002: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000 using tree ring chronologies.

    Cronin et al. 2003: Reconstructed temperatures between 200 BC and AD 2000 around Chesapeake Bay, USA, using sediment core records.

    Pollack and Smerdon 2004: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 695 boreholes from around the globe.

    Esper et al. 2005: Compared and averaged five independent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1000 to AD 2000.

    Moberg et al. 2005: Combined tree ring proxies with glacial ice cores, stalagmite, and lake sediment proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000.

    Oerlemans 2005: Reconstructed global temperatures from AD 1500 to AD 2000 using 169 glacial ice proxies from around the globe. Rutherford, et al. 2005: Compared two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions and tested the results of each reconstruction for sensitivity to type of statistics used, proxy characteristics, seasonal variation, and geographic location. Concluded that the reconstructions were robust to various sources of error.

    D’Arrigo et al. 2006: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 700 and AD 2000 from multiple tree ring proxies using a new statistical technique called Regional Curve Standardization. Concluded that their new technique was superior to the older technique used by previous reconstructions.

    Osborn and Briffa 2006: Used 14 regional temperature reconstructions between AD 800 and AD 2000 to compare spatial extent of changes in Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Found that twentieth century warming was more widespread than any other temperature change of the past 1,200 years.

    Hegerl et al. 2007: Combined borehole temperatures and tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 1,450 years. Introduced a new calibration technique between proxy temperatures and instrumental temperatures.

    Juckes et al. 2007: Combined multiple older reconstructions into a meta-analysis. Also used existing proxies to calculate a new Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction.

    Wahl and Ammann 2007: Used the tree ring proxies, glacial proxies, and borehole proxies used by Mann et al. (1998, 1999) to recalculate Northern Hemisphere temperatures since AD 800. Refuted the McIntyre and McKitrick criticisms and showed that those criticisms were based on flawed statistical techniques.

    Wilson, et al. 2007: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1750 to AD 2000 using tree ring proxies that did not show a divergence problem after AD 1960.

    Mann et al. 2008: Reconstructed global temperatures between AD 200 and AD 2000 using 1,209 independent proxies ranging from tree rings to boreholes to sediment cores to stalagmite cores to Greenland and Antarctic ice cores.

    Kaufman, et al. 2009: Used tree rings, lake sediment cores, and glacial ice cores to reconstruct Arctic temperatures between 1 BC and 2000 AD.

    von Storch et al. 2009: Tested three different temperature reconstruction techniques to show that the Composite plus Scaling method was better than the other two methods.

    Frank et al. 2010: A brief history of proxy temperature reconstructions, as well as analysis of the main questions remaining in temperature reconstructions.

    Kellerhals et al. 2010: Used ammonium concentration in a glacial ice core to reconstruct tropical South American temperatures over the past 1,600 years.

    Ljungqvist 2010: Reconstructed extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000 using historical records, sediment cores, tree rings, and stalagmites.

    Thibodeau et al. 2010: Reconstructed temperatures at the bottom of the Gulf of St. Lawrence since AD 1000 via sediment cores.

    Tingley and Huybers 2010a, 2010b: Used a Bayesian approach to reconstruct North American temperatures.

    Büntgen et al. 2011: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Central European temperatures between 500 BC and AD 2000.

    Kemp et al. 2011: Reconstructed sea levels off North Carolina, USA from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores. They also showed that sea levels changed with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

    Kinnard et al. 2011: Used multiple proxies to reconstruct late summer Arctic sea ice between AD 561 and AD 1995, using instrumental data to extend their record to AD 2000.

    Martin-Chivelet et al. 2011: Reconstructed temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula from 2000 BC to AD 2000 using stalagmites. Spielhagen et al. 2011: Reconstructed marine temperatures in the Fram Strait from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores.

    Esper et al. 2012: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Scandinavian temperatures 100 BC to AD 2000. May have solved the post-AD 1960 tree ring divergence problem.

    Ljungqvist et al. 2012: Used a network of 120 tree ring proxies, ice core proxies, pollen records, sediment cores, and historical documents to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000, with emphasis on proxies recording the Medieval Warm Period.

    Melvin et al. 2012: Reanalyzed tree ring data for the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden.

    Abram et al. 2013: Reconstructed snow melt records and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula since AD 1000 using ice core records.

    Marcott, et al. 2013: Reconstructed global temperatures over the past 11,000 years using sediment cores. Data ended at AD 1940.

    PAGES 2k Consortium 2013: Used multiple proxies (tree rings, sediment cores, ice cores, stalagmites, pollen, etc) to reconstruct regional and global temperatures since AD 1.

    Rhodes et al. 2013: Used proxy and instrumental records to reconstruct global temperatures from AD 1753 to AD 2011.

    Y Zhang et al. 2014: “Millennial minimum temperature variations in the Qilian Mountains, China: evidence from tree rings,” Climate of the Past, 10, 1763–1778, 2014.

    Shi et al. 2015: “A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium,” Climate Change, August 2015, Volume 131, Issue 4, pp 663-676. [PDF]

  56. #56 Dave L
    December 23, 2015

    I tweeted you that climate science was today political and not scientific. You responded by blocking me adding me to a list of “deniers,” illustrating just what I said.

  57. #57 Desertphile
    Vote for Donald Trump! We need a wall between Canada and the USA!
    December 23, 2015

    Dave L: “I tweeted you that climate science was today political and not scientific.”

    Climate science today is political and not scientific only to non-scientists, and only in the USA. You and your cult are to blame. If you object to science being politicized, STOP DOING IT.

  58. #58 Lennard
    December 23, 2015

    It is not only Steyn that has a low opinion of Judge Combs Greene –

    http://www.therobingroom.com/dc/Judge.aspx?ID=3789

  59. #59 dean
    December 23, 2015

    “perhaps you side with the lunatics over at black lives matter”

    Or, more likely, you are one of the people all too willing to misrepresent the point of that campaign.

  60. #60 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    What aspect of climate science, specifically, isn’t scientific?

  61. #61 Desertphile
    In a hand basket, going some where
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: “What aspect of climate science, specifically, isn’t scientific?”

    The parts that conflict with the interests of the fabulously wealthy, and their employees in Congress.

  62. #62 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    I tweeted you that climate science was today political and not scientific.

    That very clearly identifies you as a denier. Apparently not only do you fail at your understanding of science you have a weak grasp of English.

  63. #63 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    25

    Mike P, Steyn stands out as a stand- up comic & cabaret singer who scarcely knows the difference between crap and crapulent , witness this performance

    That has not stopped him from advancing the cause of civil liberty in Canada by vigorously contesting PC attacks on free speech: justice cares not who seeks it.

  64. #64 Pouncer
    December 23, 2015

    Cabc: “What aspect of climate science, specifically, isn’t scientific?”

    The part where the people paid to study that science claim the privilege to re-order the political priorities of every other scientist of every other discipline on the planet and for the next century.

    It is as if those who studied the settled science of human “eugenics” in the early 20th century, who showed how failed mongrel races were breeding faster than the pure stock of western cultures, had been allowed to decide who –by race — would serve in what branches of the military, or work in what physics labs, and who else — again by race or even physical evidence cultural practices such as pierced ears or penile circumcision — would and should be assigned to work themselves to death in labor camps.

    I note Steyn seems to have a very 1930’s view of human demographics, migrations, and economic impacts that is quite in line with the best eugenics scientists’ views of that long gone era.

    Nobody, to my knowledge, came along and proved the science of eugenics “wrong”. What we decided, after the horrors of the so-called “final solution”, what that scientists should NOT be privileged to make political decisions of this sort.

    If the climate scientists truly believed that carbon dioxide emissions endangered all life on this planet, they might reasonably conclude that carpet bombing coal-fired electrical generating plants in China and India would be necessary and beneficial ways to reduce such emissions. And they would be correct, insofar as their narrow view of the world ONLY in terms of CO2 and climate science goes. But allowing one factor in a complex and chaotic calculation to “predict” the entire outcome is both politically unwise, and generally unscientific.

  65. #65 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    Pouncer: The part where the people paid to study that science claim the privilege to re-order the political priorities of every other scientist of every other discipline on the planet and for the next century. “

    Oh, how DARE they?! Damn them! There is an excellent collection of science papers that explains their evil behavior, here:

    http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415667623/

  66. #66 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    The part where the people paid to study that science claim the privilege to re-order the political priorities of every other scientist of every other discipline on the planet and for the next century.

    Gosh, it is a very good thing the only place that happens is deep in the feverish minds of anti-science conspiracy theorists.

  67. #67 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    dean: “Gosh, it is a very good thing the only place that happens is deep in the feverish minds of anti-science conspiracy theorists.”

    …. and those individuals who just pretend to be. There is a bloody hell of a lot of money being passed around to people who claim they believe in world-wide multi-generation conspiracies—- selling books and lectures. Amazon. com web site is crammed full of books about Earth being flat, and some of them have over 300 “five star” reviews.

  68. #68 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 23, 2015

    MP,

    Questionable. You could no doubt come up with a list of sentences saying essentially the same thing, with varying degrees of specificity, color, distraction or whatnot; and all of them, some of them, or none of them would be actionable depending on context.

    I think, and this is just from my personal (not legal) perspective, that what is going on here is the vanishingly small Overton window on what is unacceptable for right wing wind bags to spew. No doubt some of it is unconscious and some is purposefully driven by propaganda. In any event, the issue seems to be, did Steyn jump the gun and cross the line before the public, at all levels, has been sufficiently stupefied to let it pass.

  69. #69 aelfheld
    Texas
    December 23, 2015

    There are more errors of fact and logic in this ‘piece’ than can be addressed in such a limited forum.

    But to point out a few of the more egregious bits of nonsense . . .

    If Mann’s lawsuit is so important why is he so reluctant to go to trial? He’s had every opportunity – Steyn having severed his case from those named in Mann’s initial (and fraudulent) filing – yet has made no effort to proceed to trial.

    The attempt to attribute racism to Steyn’s comments about the evidently incompetent Natalia Combs Greene and Vanessa Ruiz would be pathetic if it weren’t so risible. The only thing anyone reading this feels ‘assailed by’ is idiocy married to a hyper-sensitivity that would make a Yale undergraduate blush.

    It should be noted that Steyn has had no need or cause to amend his filings, whereas Michael Mann has had to do just that.

    Science depends on the integrity of both the underlying information and the integrity of the researcher. Mann’s data is scant & irreproducible; his claiming of a Nobel Peace Prize, even after being told to desist by the Nobel Committee, demonstrates a lack probity that taints his work and his acquaintances.

  70. #70 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    aelfheld: “If Mann’s lawsuit is so important why is he so reluctant to go to trial?”

    No.

  71. #71 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    aelfheld:

    “Mann’s data is scant & irreproducible”

    A clear sign that someone doesn’t know WTF they’re talking about are the two words “Mann’s data”.

    Mann’s various reconstructions are based on other people’s data, so it’s not “Mann’s data”. And that data is as available to you as it is to Mann …

  72. #72 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    “The part where the people paid to study that science claim the privilege to re-order the political priorities of every other scientist of every other discipline on the planet and for the next century.”

    How about a little me on the specifics and a little less on the hyperbolic nonsense? And a diatribe about eugenics? Seriously?

    I’ll make it easy for you
    Are temperature measurements unscientific?
    Are forcing calculations unscientific?
    Are climate measuring instruments unscientific?
    Are attribution studies unscientific?
    Are paleoclimate reconstructions unscientific?
    Is the understanding of greenhouse gasses and their interactions with longwave radiation unscientific?

    That’s what I was getting at when I asked the question.

  73. #73 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #41 Mike P

    consult a dictionary.

    I did. I then asked you to link to legal definitions that supported your incorrect assertions. You did not do this, but simply repeated yourself, confirming that you are both wrong and acting in bad faith.

    Thank you.

  74. #74 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    The only person who has attempted to delay this trial is steyn. Mann has been quite eager to proceed. I don’t know what you’re talking about.

  75. #75 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: “The only person who has attempted to delay this trial is steyn. Mann has been quite eager to proceed. I don’t know what you’re talking about.”

    If it were up to Dr. Mann, the case would be over by now, a year ago. It is the latest judge who has agreed to delay the verdict at the behest of the guilty (er, I mean “defendants” NR and CEI).

  76. #76 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    How can you claim Mann’s work is irreproducible when every large scale reconstruction done to date has produced the same result?

  77. #77 Desertphile
    Anywhere but Earth
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: How can you claim Mann’s work is irreproducible when every large scale reconstruction done to date has produced the same result?”

    They’re in on it, too!

  78. #78 Pete Freans
    December 23, 2015

    @BBD You are quite correct on the law of defamation. Of course your entire argument is premised on Steyn’s commentary being not “substantive”, which is not the legal standard to defending libel (my suggestion is you review the defenses to libel; you are overestimating the strength of Mann’s claim). But I will play the game of what is substantive criticism and what is not. Maybe you can give me an example of what is substantive criticism? My guess is that there isn’t any.

  79. #79 Brainstorms
    December 23, 2015

    When Truth and Reality threaten to impact people’s lifestyles and pocketbooks…

    …Truth and Reality will be attacked. Relentlessly.

    By fools.

  80. #80 Pete Freans
    December 23, 2015

    @Desertphile 1. “Clinate Change: The Facts” 2. “A Disgrace to the Profession”.

    So, yes.

  81. #81 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    Pete Freans: “@Desertphile 1. “Clinate Change: The Facts” 2. “A Disgrace to the Profession”. So, yes.”

    What?

  82. #82 Art
    December 23, 2015

    “If you have the facts on your side, pound the facts. If you have the law on your side, pound the law. If you have neither on your side, pound the table.”

    Cruz and Steyn don’t have the facts on their side. The reason they go after the judges and claim they are not competent to rule is that the law isn’t on their side. Which leaves ‘pounding the table’.

    If you want to pound the table for maximum effect you need a professional table pounder and a really resonate table to pound on. Both are found in the US congress.

    This was the methodology of Eugene McCathy and the Red Scare. McCarthy didn’t really have the legal authority to get people fired or black listed. By the shear power of baseless assertion on national TV in a well orchestrated show, really world-class table pounding, he was able to destroy lives and warp the national consciousness. A result far beyond what his position as senator would otherwise allow.

    By discounting the judicial process and getting it into Congress they are effectively doing what any good commander does, chose the time and place of the battle. I doubt the climate issue is the main event for Cruz, likely this is rehearsal for what Cruz sees as more important issues, like advancing the career of Cruz. It may be a hint of things to come.

    Cruz seems to picture himself as McCarthy with much larger built in audience and more rhetorical skill. He can bring the evangelical, Tea Party, and Trumps followings together and form a coalition.

    He looks to be positioned to do it by using McCarthy’s heartless and underhanded tactics of vilification and alienation together with the passion and assurance that God is on your side from his father’s holy rolling.

    I picture it a chimera with Trump, Gríma Wormtongue, and John Hagee combined. It is all about learning to lie more effectively.

  83. #83 Narad
    December 23, 2015

    The law suit in question is certainly an important law suit, because it speaks to how anti-science forces can be allowed, or not allowed, to attack scientists.

    The only important thing about this is whether anti-SLAPP losses can be immediately appealed. The rest is a garden-variety defamation suit.

    @James Mayeau:

    As I remember it, the New York Times and Washington Post joined Mark Steyn’s side, because if Michael Mann’s litigation were to become the standard for defamation journalism would cease to exist .

    You remember quite incorrectly. The five amicus briefs (plus Steyn’s) were about the anti-SLAPP appeal, to which Steyn is not a party.

  84. #84 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #70 Pete Freans

    Of course your entire argument is premised on Steyn’s commentary being not “substantive”, which is not the legal standard to defending libel

    No, this is incorrect. The argument here is that there is a clear distinction between what is libelous (untrue) and what is substantive (correct, evidentially supported etc).

    The contention here is that Steyn crossed the line from substantive into libelous. The argument about free speech is irrelevant because substantive argument is protected by the First Amendment, whereas libel is not.

  85. #85 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    I see Steyn’s fans have made this a rather active forum. To address the only point of interest any of them have raised, various media organizations did file an amici curiae brief advocating that Mann’s suit be dismissed.

    In my opinion the organizations muddled the separate issues of scientific debate and personal defamation, added some misplaced concern for First Amendment rights and topped it off with a large helping of pure self-interest in wishing to keep the bar raised high on publishers’ responsibility for libelous statements.

    As for Mann’s lawsuit against Steyn and other parties, it is an action against defamatory statements directed against Mann. It is not an attempt to shut down scientific debate, in which neither high-school dropout Mark Steyn or co-defendant Rand Simberg carry any weight at all. Accusing a scientific researcher of committing fraud is every bit as professionally damaging as accusing a journalist of plagiarism or fabricating stories, a judge of taking bribes or a prosecutor or attorney of suborning perjury. Such acts, if proven, can end careers or even lead to prison sentences.

    For those unfamiliar with how seriously news organizations have traditionally dealt with cases of plagiarism or fabrication, here is a U.S.-centric list of recent instances: http://catalog.freedomforum.org/FFLib/JournalistScandals.htm

  86. #86 Brian Schmidt
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Steyn’s fans are ignoring his actual statements, as can be seen by their failure to actually quote him. Below is what he actually said (quoted in the first sentence) with the rest being what the judge had to say about it. Armchair lawyers seem to doubt this, but it sounds pretty reasonable to me.

    “The statement “he has molested and tortured data” could easily be interpreted to mean that the plaintiff distorted, manipulated, or misrepresented his data. Certainly the statement is capable of a defamatory meaning, which means the questions of whether it was false and made with “actual malice” are questions of fact for the jury. A reasonable reader, both within and outside the scientific community, would understand that a scientist who molests or tortures his data is acting far outside the bounds of any acceptable scientific method. In context, it would not be unreasonable for a reader to interpret the comment, and the republication in National Review, as an allegation that Dr. Mann had committed scientific fraud, which Penn State University then covered up, just as some had accused the University of covering up the Sandusky scandal. For many of the reasons discussed in Judge Combs Greene’s July 19 orders, to state as a fact that a scientist dishonestly molests or tortures data to serve a political agenda would have a strong likelihood of damaging his reputation within his profession, which is the very essence of defamation.”

    —–
    The Sandusky analogy is additionally relevant to whether Steyn acted with malice, the extent of reputational harm Steyn was attempting to inflict, and whether punitive damages are appropriate.

  87. #87 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    @ Brian Schmidt: without getting into the specifics of Mann v. Steyn et al. (i.e., keep it general) if Mann wins his suit can Steyn’s multiple online comments and posts made *after* the original allegedly defamatory statements be used to assess malice, harm and damages?

    Saying that Steyn has doubled down on his personal attacks on Mann since the lawsuit was filed doesn’t come close to describing his actions.

  88. #88 RickA
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Greg:

    1. Of course Cruz was using Steyn – that is what hearing are for.

    2. Of course Steyn can offer his opinion about the court case (whether it is advisable or not).

    3. The court case is a joke – we are waiting for an appeal which will probably say – yes you can appeal a denial of a slap dismissal – but which says nothing about the merits of the case.

    4. I suggest we wait and see if the entire case is dismissed or not – and wait until we get to summary judgment to see whether Mann’s claims have merit or not.

    I predict that Steyn will prevail, for two reasons.

    1. His piece was pure opinion, and opinion can be libel.
    2. Truth is a defense and Mann did torture and molest the data.

  89. #89 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    “opinion cannot be libel”

  90. #90 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Stating that Mann’s hockey stick is fraudulent and that mann molests and tortures data for political reasons is a statement of fact, something that could be verified as being true or not, not an opinion. Since mann hasn’t been found guilty of fraud, and since his work has not been found to be fraudulent, and since steyn knows this, I don’t know what leg steyn hopes to stand on.

  91. #91 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: “Stating that Mann’s hockey stick is fraudulent and that mann molests and tortures data for political reasons is a statement of fact, something that could be verified as being true or not, not an opinion. Since mann hasn’t been found guilty of fraud, and since his work has not been found to be fraudulent, and since steyn knows this, I don’t know what leg steyn hopes to stand on.”

    Has Steyn ordered his brainwashed minions to fork over money to pay legal fees and the pending financial judgement against him? I would think Steyn stands to gain tens of thousands of dollars in profit after the judge rules against him.

  92. #92 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    @ RickA

    I normally avoid wasting my time replying to comments like yours, but this will be quick.

    1. A man who is his own lawyer has a fool for a client.
    2. Don’t give up your day job.

  93. #93 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    cabc #81:

    How would you verify whether mann molests and tortures data?

    This is clearly an opinion.

    Even if the court were to find this is a statement of fact (which I doubt will be the case) – it is true.

    Read climate audit for Mann’s data handling.

    Look up how he handled the R2 statistic.

    Look up how he censored data.

    Look up how he de-centered data.

    Look up how he arrived at 2 (or was it 3?) for his number of components in his principal components analysis (PCA).

    Look at how he used data upside down.

    Any reasonable person can look at the data manipulation Mann did and arrive at the conclusion that he was creating propaganda to advance his activism – which means he tortured and molested data.

    This means the statement of fact (which is really an opinion) is not false – and therefore no libel.

  94. #94 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
    December 23, 2015

    RickA: “How would you verify whether mann molests and tortures data? This is clearly an opinion.”

    Memory loss medication:

    http://www.alz.org/alzheimers_disease_standard_prescriptions.asp

    Good luck.

  95. #95 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    magma #82:

    Maybe Steyn is a fool then (although he does have his own lawyer). So what?

    I have not given up my day job.

    Thank you for your concern.

  96. #96 Rob Honeycutt
    skepticalscience.com
    December 23, 2015

    I find it interesting when Steyn and his minions claim this case could be a significant blow to free speech. If Steyn prevails I’m rather concerned that free speech will be irreparable harmed!

    There are clear limits to free speech, and for good reason. You can’t yell “fire” in a crowded theater because of the harm it could do to others. Steyn is essentially arguing that he has the right to yell “fire” anywhere he damn well likes.

    Key to this case is the idea of “reckless disregard for the truth.” It is abundantly clear that Steyn has chosen to ignore mountains of information showing that Mann’s research is, in fact, correct. Dr. Mann is a good researcher, well respected by his peers, and has produced a significant body of important work related to climate change.

    What would it mean for free speech if it enables people to completely disregard reality? Speech becomes meaningless if it’s not somehow based in the real world on some level. The first amendment becomes meaningless if speech becomes a weapon to destroy those you don’t like without regard for facts.

  97. #97 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    Rob #85:

    Saying someones graph is fraudulent is not the same thing as yelling “fire” in a crowded theater.

    Maybe you should take your issues with free speech up with flat earthers or truthers or 911 conspiracy buffs. Most people would say they all deny reality – yet they can still speak their opinion.

    I hear some people think floride in water is bad – maybe you would ban their speech?

    I hear some people think vaccines cause autism – maybe you would ban their speech?

    One persons reality is quite often just an opinion to another person.

    For example, I live in the greatest country on the face of the planet.

    Other people from other countries might disagree.

  98. #98 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    Magma #78:

    No.

    Mann would have to amend his complaint or file a new lawsuit to complain of more statements made post-filing.

  99. #99 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    ‘Yes but free speech’ is a popular card in the victim-player’s hand.

  100. #100 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    BBD: “Yes but free speech’ is a popular card in the victim-player’s hand.”

    It is indeed a ploy; a fraudulent argument meant to shut down legitimate complaints.

  101. #101 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Saying someones graph is fraudulent is not the same thing as yelling “fire” in a crowded theater.

    But it may well prove to be libelous.

  102. #102 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    BBD #89:

    Or not – we will have to wait to see.

  103. #103 Greg Laden
    December 23, 2015

    “Saying someones graph is fraudulent is not the same thing as yelling “fire” in a crowded theater.”

    Making the claim that a person committed fraud, when you are wrong (and Steyn is wrong) is not exactly the same thing as yelling “fire” (when there is no fire) in a crowded movie theater. But both are inappropriate.

  104. #104 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    RickA
    And I encourage you to read deep climate, tamino, real climate for a thorough demolishing of McIntyre. To answer your question, I base whether or not Mann molests and tortures data on what formal investigations into his work have found, as opposed to the opinions of a mining executive. What do you imagine a court would look at? Formal investigations or the musings of an amateur blogger?

  105. #105 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    I was trying to stay out of this one, because Steyn’s position — i.e., the correct, sane position, has been well-represented by other posters. But, when I see the old “you can’t yell fire in a crowded theater'” cliche, I just couldn’t hold back.

    Rob Honeycutt, your use of that phrase is so misguided it beggars belief. Since when can’t you yell “fire” in a crowded theater. In fact, I would argue if there was a fire in the theater, not only can you yell fire, but you have a moral obligation to do so.

    And, I would suggest, that moral obligation applies if you honestly and reasonably believe there is a fire, but it turns out no fire existed (the old “better safe then sorry”).

    What you can’t do is FALSELY yell fire in a crowded theater, if you know there is no fire.

    So, extending the analogy to this case: Steyn honestly and reasonably believe Mann manipulated the data (remember, it was Rand Simburg who said Mann “tortured and molested data;” Steyn said he would not have used the Sandusky metaphor), and Steyn further believes that an institution that did a sham investigation of a star faculty member accused of systemic rape of young boys is likely to do a sham investigation of another star faculty member accused of academic dishonesty.

    You can agree with Steyn, as do many notable climate scientists, including those who believe in man-made climate change. You can disagree with Steyn, as I many scientists do.

    But, what you cannot do, in a free society, is take away Steyn’s right to make that statement via criminal or civil penalties

    So, please, stop with the lame “can’t yell fire in a crowded theater” malarky, as it makes you look completely ignorant of the legal issues at hand.

  106. #106 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Greg: Is it wrong to yell fire in a crowded theater if you honestly believe there is a fire, but it later turns out there is none?

    Again, we get back to Mann’s (almost) impossible burden: to show Steyn KNOWINGLY made false statements about Mann (and, because Mann is a public figure, such statements must have had a malicious intent).

    Why do you think Steyn published the book and appeared at the hearing with other notable scientists? To make the obvious point that Steyn,as a layperson, can rely on the opinions of scientists who disagree with Mann and question Mann’s scientific methods.

    Those scientists upon whom Steyn relies might be wrong, they might be right. But Steyn is certainly free to think — and say — whose side he is on…

  107. #107 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    RickA

    As for millennial climate reconstructions – come on. MBH 98 / 99 were ground-breaking and inevitably imperfect but by no means ‘wrong’. Millennial climate change is suggestive of at least moderately high sensitivity to radiative perturbation, and quite strongly suggestive that human activity has had a significant effect on GAT since ~1850.

  108. #108 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    “Steyn honestly and reasonably believe Mann manipulated the data”

    But investigations into his work found that to be incorrect. Steyn is aware of this but said what he said anyway. That’s where reckless disregard for the truth comes into play.

  109. #109 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
    December 23, 2015

    cabc: {“Steyn honestly and reasonably believe Mann manipulated the data”}

    But investigations into his work found that to be incorrect. Steyn is aware of this but said what he said anyway. That’s where reckless disregard for the truth comes into play.

    That is also where malice was demonstrated.

  110. #110 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Dan

    You can agree with Steyn, as do many notable climate scientists, including those who believe in man-made climate change.

    You go too far. See #97. And quote-mining as Steyn has done with his books does not constitute evidence of the strength you imply.

  111. #111 RickA
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Greg #92:

    You said “But both are inappropriate.”

    Maybe so.

    You are entitled to your opinion.

    Steyn is entitled to his.

    Remember – Steyn didn’t say Mann was a fraud – he (paraphrasing) said Mann’s hockey stick graph was fraudulent. Even if you don’t agree that is very different – it is not the same thing.

    cabc #93 – you said “What do you imagine a court would look at? ”

    The court will look at what Steyn said. If the case goes to the jury – 12 (or 9 – it depends on the jurisdiction) random people will decide whether it is opinion or a statement of fact, if a statement of fact, false and if false, said with malice.

    If you think the non-investigations of Mann will have any bearing on this case you are sadly mistaken.

  112. #112 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Jack Walters: You are absolutely right, and Steyn already has found Ivy League and other top scientists who will testify on his behalf. Two of them appeared at the hearing: Dr. Judith Curry, and the other gentleman who is a professor at Princeton.(I believe his name is Dr. Happer, but I could be wrong).

    If you buy Steyn’s book, the list of those scientists who believe Mann is a joke and (dare I say) a fraud is a long list indeed. Notably, a good portion of that list actually disagrees with Steyn and Curry, et. al, re: climate change. That is, they believe climate change exists, and that humans are playing a big role.

    However, they still think Mann’s research is suspect and (what is that word, again?) fraudulent…

  113. #113 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Pete Freans (#34): Steyn’s involvement in challenging climate science is based on his argument that your discipline has been poisoned by politics, progressive ideologies, and money. I don’t believe he has ever claimed to be a scientist. As such, he has complied two books worth of climate scientists who disagree with your assessments on climate change. Nevertheless, your position as a scientist grants you no greater protection from critical speech than any ordinary citizen. The attempts to use the courts and government to silence critics (as many climate scientist advocate) is chilling in the classic Orwellian sense.

    Do they disagree? Do they really? I think a detailed examination of the quotes would cast doubt on that assessment. Anyone can collect a bunch of quotes critical of someone and claim those quotes prove the person criticized is wrong. The test in this case would be how many of those quoted by Steyn will testify under oath that Dr. Mann is a fraud OR that any of his work is fraudulent. If Steyn really had a case, why would he need to write even one book about it?

    Second point: A few climate scientists have said that global warming denialists should be made to stop denying established facts in order to delay action on a serious problem. This is not the same as trying to silence critics.

  114. #114 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Art (#73): This was the methodology of Eugene McCathy and the Red Scare.

    Please; this was Joseph McCarthy, not Eugene.

  115. #115 RickA
    December 23, 2015

    BBD #97:

    It doesn’t matter whether MBH 98 / 99 was right or wrong.

    All that matters is which statements of Steyn are opinion and which are statements of fact.

    For the statements of fact – are they false.

    If they are false – were the statements made with reckless disregard.

    And finally – were the statements made with malice.

    Personally, I like Steyn’s chances before a jury.

  116. #116 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    cabc — there are also scientists who believe Mann ignored data (i.e., midieval warm period, little ice age, etc) that provided evidence contrary to his thesis, and therefore “manipulated” his findings.

    Steyn has just of much of right to believe those scientists as the ones who side with Mann. It doesn’t make his statements libelous…

  117. #117 Desertphile
    Anywhere but Earth
    December 23, 2015

    Dan: “cabc — there are also scientists who believe Mann ignored data (i.e., midieval warm period, little ice age, etc) that provided evidence contrary to his thesis, and therefore “manipulated” his findings”

    Yes, there are scientists who believe Earth is the center of the universe. So? There is no evidence Mann et all “ignored data.”

    As for MCA and LIA, MB&H “ignored” the data because it didn’t exist at the time. That fact has been explained to you more than 30 times: even a fake lawyer would have remembered.

  118. #118 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Dan
    Which scientists are these? Are they experts in the relevant field? And is that saying much? There are biologists who don’t accept evolution after all.

  119. #119 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    By the way, the irony of the climate-change champions never ceases to amaze me. Greg, you calling Steyn a racist based on “dog-whistles” is far closer to committing libel then anything Steyn has done. Steyn was challenging the methods of a prominent scientist.

    You, on the other hand, make an ad hominem attack against Steyn based on “dog-whistles” that no one else hears (by the way, just as only dogs hear real dog -whistles, only racists hear “racist dog whistles. So, who is the real racist).

    Don’t worry, though, Steyn isn’t a sissy (is that a gay dog-whistle?) that has to rely on litigation to silence those who disagree with him. He is perfectly capable of winning arguments on the merits, unlike those who do resort to litigation.

  120. #120 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    RickA

    I’m not sure that ignorance of the facts would constitute a defence against libel if the public statements made are libelous.

    Perhaps someone with a more detailed knowledge of US law could clarify this point.

  121. #121 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    cabc_ Dr. William Happer, Princeton, Dr. John Christy, University of Alabama, Dr. Judith Curry, Georgia Tech…..

    Those are just but a few…

  122. #122 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    RickA

    Remember – Steyn didn’t say Mann was a fraud – he (paraphrasing) said Mann’s hockey stick graph was fraudulent. Even if you don’t agree that is very different – it is not the same thing.

    Actually, I think it is, since it is difficult to see how an individual can engage in an allegedly fraudulent act without themselves being guilt of fraud.

  123. #123 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    BBD — I am knowledgeable about the libel/defamation law, and ignorance is a defense when dealing with public persons (which Mann is). Mann has to show that Steyn 1) made statements 2) that he knew were false, 3) for malicious purposes…

    Ignorance, if proven, defeats the second element.

  124. #124 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #111 Dan

    At #107 cabc asked:

    Which scientists are these? Are they experts in the relevant field?

    To which you responded:

    cabc_ Dr. William Happer, Princeton, Dr. John Christy, University of Alabama, Dr. Judith Curry, Georgia Tech…..

    Those are just but a few…

    There is no expertise in millennial climate reconstructions there.

  125. #125 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Dan (#94): Rob Honeycutt, your use of that phrase is so misguided it beggars belief. Since when can’t you yell “fire” in a crowded theater. In fact, I would argue if there was a fire in the theater, not only can you yell fire, but you have a moral obligation to do so.

    Dan, I would agree with you — except for that fact that Rob made a shorthand statement of a well-known argument which implicitly assumes there is no fire when the hypothetical person yells “Fire!”

  126. #126 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #114 Dan

    ignorance is a defense when dealing with public persons (which Mann is). Mann has to show that Steyn 1) made statements 2) that he knew were false, 3) for malicious purposes…

    Ignorance, if proven, defeats the second element.

    Thanks for that. Is there a definitive legal source for this which can be linked for the thread?

  127. #127 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Dan (#96): Why do you think Steyn published the book and appeared at the hearing with other notable scientists? To make the obvious point that Steyn,as a layperson, can rely on the opinions of scientists who disagree with Mann and question Mann’s scientific methods.

    “other notable scientists”? Steyn is not a scientist, so this wording is incorrect. Also — and this is my opinion — there was only one notable scientist invited to the Cruz hearing. That would be Dr. Titley.

    Those scientists upon whom Steyn relies might be wrong, they might be right. But Steyn is certainly free to think — and say — whose side he is on…

    Yes, but he did more than that. He stepped across a clear line.

  128. #128 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Christopher, what line did he step over? The whole point of the subject blog post is that the same institution that investigated and cleared Jerry Sandusky of any wrongdoing also investigated and cleared Michael Mann of wrongdoing. That is a perfectly valid point to bring up, whether you agree or not.

    By the way, I do find it funny (and ironic) that the propietor of this blog is so gung-ho for Mann to sue Steyn, when he himself has posted controversial, and possibly false, statements about others. see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/16/greg-laden-liar/

    If the court adopts Mann’s position, might Mr. Laden find himself on the wrong end of a lawsuit? (Note there is a good chance that the potential plaintiff in the link above will not be considered a public person, thus making his burden much more attainable).

  129. #129 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    BBD — see http://injury.findlaw.com/torts-and-personal-injuries/defamation-law-the-basics.html

    It is stated somewhat differently (4 elements instead of 3) but the gist is the same. Please note the element “falsity” and the holding the opinions are not capable of being false because the speaker believes them to be true (which is another way of saying the speaker has to make a statement he knows is false)

  130. #130 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    RickA (#100): Remember — Steyn didn’t say Mann was a fraud — he (paraphrasing) said Mann’s hockey stick graph was fraudulent. Even if you don’t agree that is very different — it is not the same thing.

    So if I were to say in public that Mark Steyn makes misleading and fraudulent statements about a subject in which he admits he has no training or expertise, he would have no legal grounds to dispute me?

    How would you feel if I made those statements about you to your employer? I guess you’d just shrug it off?

    Now do you see why your claim of a distinction is balderdash?

  131. #131 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Christopher — my point in responding to Rob’s use of the “fire” analogy was that analogy is so dated it is hardly ever used. More importantly, it is not even a good analogy because, as you say, it presumes there is no fire. However, the question is not whether a fire existed, but whether the speaker believed a fire existed when he made the statement.

  132. #132 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Christopher, you absolutely have the right to say Steyn makes misleading and fraudulent claims, and Steyn would have no recourse.

    No, if you said that about me to my employer, a different situation exists because I am not a public person. Mann (as the court already has held), is a public person. Steyn, as a radio host, and well-known columnist, would certainly qualify as a public person.

    If you honestly believe Steyn makes misleading and fraudulent statements, you could tattoo same across your forehead and be completely protected from legal recourse.

  133. #133 RickA
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    BBD #112:

    Try this:

    BBD, you are a fraud. What does this imply?

    Alternative:

    BBD, this one graph you did is fraudulent. What does this imply?

    See the difference?

    One implies that everything a person does is a lie and the other only implies that one thing the person did is a lie.

    Sorry – but that is not the same thing.

  134. #134 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Dan #111

    If that’s the case then the answer to my question is a “no”.

  135. #135 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    RickA #87

    Brian is a lawyer who may be able to give a credible answer to my question. You aren’t, and can’t.

  136. #136 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Wait, did penn state clear Sandusky of wrongdoing? It was a while ago but what I remember is that Sandusky’s boss, Paterno, knew what he was doing but kept quiet. I don’t recall the actual institution covering anything up

  137. #137 RickA
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Magma #131:

    I am also a lawyer.

  138. #138 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #124 Dan

    Thank you for the link. It seem to me that it does not provide any immunity for Steyn:

    Someone made a statement;
    1. that statement was published;
    2. the statement caused you injury;
    3. the statement was false; and
    4. the statement did not fall into a privileged category.

    (1 -3) are established, and (4) does not seem to apply to Steyn:

    Unprivileged — Lastly, in order for a statement to be defamatory, it must be unprivileged. Lawmakers have decided that you cannot sue for defamation in certain instances when a statement is considered privileged. For example, when a witness testifies at trial and makes a statement that is both false and injurious, the witness will be immune to a lawsuit for defamation because the act of testifying at trial is privileged.

  139. #139 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    cabc — so in your opinion university professors, including one at Princeton, as well as Georgia Tech and Alabama, are not distinguished scientists?

    Thanks for proving the point that you, along with most of the climate change crowd, automatically discount, and dare I say, ignore, people or information that doesn’t comport to your world view.

    it is almost like you are manipulating the information you consider…

  140. #140 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    RickA

    BBD, you are a fraud. What does this imply?

    Alternative:

    BBD, this one graph you did is fraudulent. What does this imply?

    See the difference?

    In informal usage, yes, although marginally. In legal terms no, as to commit a fraudulent act is to be guilt of fraud.

  141. #141 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    BBD — did you read the paragraph describing the “falsity” element? It states that opinions cannot, by definition, be false because the speaker believes them to be true. Thus, if Steyn believes his opinions regarding Mann are true, #3 does indeed provide protection

  142. #142 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    ‘guilty of fraud’. That’s twice now, so apologies for the typos.

  143. #143 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Rick A , somehow I knew you were an attorney because you actually know what you are talking about re: the legal standard of libel cases.

    I have tried, in other threads, to point out to the climate change group that Mann v. Steyn is not a science issue, it is a first amendment. I have also said I won’t comment on the science, because I am not a scientist. I am, however, a lawyer with more then passing familiarity with libel law, and feel more then qualified to discuss same.

    They won’t listen; instead, they just argue what they think the law should be, not what it is….

  144. #144 Brian Schmidt
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Dan has read his own link incorrectly, including counting the number of elements to the claim. His main error is turning the requirement of falsity into requiring knowledge of falsity. For claims against a public figure, malice is sufficient and can be shown by reckless disregard of the truth, not requiring actual knowledge of falsity.

    And btw, I’m not a defamation lawyer, so take my comments with a grain of salt.

    I generally agree with the comment upthread that new defamation by Steyn would require an amended complaint (or a new complaint). OTOH, I’m guessing new defamation could be introduced in exhibit form as evidence justifying punitive damages without an amended complaint. Again, just a guess.

  145. #145 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Desertphile: What if Steyn doesn’t believe the investigations that supposedly cleared Mann? That was his whole point — again — that an institution that cleared someone of systemic rape might not be the most objective institution to investigate someone.

    Steyn is allowed to believe that the investigations were shams, and say so. Just because you believe these investigations does not mean they are gospel-truth

  146. #146 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    RickA #134:

    Well, that may be. I won’t speculate further except to state that on the basis of the sum of your comments I wouldn’t trust your judgment or your veracity with respect to any topics discussed here.

  147. #147 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    “in your opinion university professors, including one at Princeton, as well as Georgia Tech and Alabama, are not distinguished scientists?”

    That’s not what I said. I asked if they were experts in the relevant field. They arent. If I wanted to know about ocean dynamics, remote sensing, or spectroscopy, I might ask curry, Christy, or happer, respectively. But the area of expertise in question is paleoclimate reconstructions. Understand?

  148. #148 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    # 139 Dan

    Falsity — Defamation law will only consider statements defamatory if they are, in fact, false. A true statement, no matter how harmful, is not considered defamation. In addition, because of their nature, statements of opinion are not considered false because they are subjective to the speaker.

    This is interesting. It would appear to be almost impossible to bring a successful action for libel in the US unless there is some other factor under consideration. Based on precedent, what is it?

  149. #149 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Dan: “I am knowledgeable …”
    There’s where Dan’s statement goes off the rails into fantasy.
    And Dan, nobody with a sense of integrity would link to anything at Watt’s site and thinks what is there is anything close to reality. But then, nobody here who has integrity did that.

    “I am also a lawyer”
    Clearly, however, ignorant of science and facts.

  150. #150 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Brian — you are absolutely wrong. I picked that link, of many, because it specifically says statements of opinion, of which Steyn’s post was, are not subject to libel law because it is subjective to the speaker.

    I could provide countless more links, if you like, including links that state reckless disregard is not enough for a public person.

    And I am a lawyer, so no need for grains of salt here..

  151. #151 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #144 Brian Schmidt

    His main error is turning the requirement of falsity into requiring knowledge of falsity. For claims against a public figure, malice is sufficient and can be shown by reckless disregard of the truth, not requiring actual knowledge of falsity.

    Thanks for the clarification.

  152. #152 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    BBD — Brian is wrong. From the same website, see below. Please read the section about public figures, discussing the landmark NYT v. Sullivan case. It clearly states that the Defendant, per NYT v. Sullivan, must know the statement is false when made.

    http://injury.findlaw.com/torts-and-personal-injuries/fault-required-for-defamation.html

  153. #153 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    I will agree that reckless disregard is sufficient for malice, but that is not applicable in Mann v. Steyn, because Steyn’s comments were Opinion comments. Thus, they are not verifiable….

  154. #154 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    Dan: “I will agree that reckless disregard is sufficient for malice, but that is not applicable in Mann v. Steyn, because Steyn’s comments were Opinion comments.”

    I see you are still pretending to be a moron. Why? What does it get for you? What’s the pay-off?

  155. #155 Magma
    December 23, 2015

    @ Brian #144, thanks.

    @ Dan (multiple), William Happer is an emeritus professor of physics with no expertise in climate science. While testifying before Ted Cruz’s Senate subcommittee earlier this month he embarrassed himself by confusing the satellite-borne microwave-derived atmospheric temperature estimates with infrared emission measurements. And that was actually a subject that touched on his area of expertise… or once did.

    Happer’s opinion is no more valid than Nobel laureate Ivar Giaever’s or Freeman Dyson’s uninformed off-the-cuff impressions of a field they haven’t even bothered to study.

  156. #156 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Dean: I will agree I am ignorant when it comes to science. I have no idea about that other blog, other then the owner is contemplating suing Greg under the same standard as Mann sues Steyn. I.e., Greg makes an opinion statement about the a piece written by the owner, the owner thinks Greg took him out of context or somehow misrepresented him.

    In no way is Greg liable for his opinion, just like Steyn is not liabile

  157. #157 Brainstorms
    December 23, 2015

    Again, from the judge in this case (courtesy of #77):

    “The statement “he has molested and tortured data” could easily be interpreted to mean that the plaintiff distorted, manipulated, or misrepresented his data. Certainly the statement is capable of a defamatory meaning, which means the questions of whether it was false and made with “actual malice” are questions of fact for the jury. A reasonable reader, both within and outside the scientific community, would understand that a scientist who molests or tortures his data is acting far outside the bounds of any acceptable scientific method. In context, it would not be unreasonable for a reader to interpret the comment, and the republication in National Review, as an allegation that Dr. Mann had committed scientific fraud, which Penn State University then covered up, just as some had accused the University of covering up the Sandusky scandal. For many of the reasons discussed in Judge Combs Greene’s July 19 orders, to state as a fact that a scientist dishonestly molests or tortures data to serve a political agenda would have a strong likelihood of damaging his reputation within his profession, which is the very essence of defamation.

    Now, denialist fools, you may once again plead your arguments as to why a U.S. judge doesn’t know the law he rules on.

  158. #158 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    BBD 148 : In the United States, it is nearly impossible for a public figure to bring a libel suit (in this area, U.S. law differs greatly from U.K. law). One needs to look no further then politics. Think of how many politicians are routinely called criminals.

    If libel were as easy as Mann makes it to be, Hillary Clinton would sue every person who labels her a criminal over the email scandal.

    For a private person, it is much easier, because the malice requirement does not exist.

  159. #159 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Brainstorms, you misread that order. The only think the order does is get Mann pasta motion to dismiss, by saying the statements COULD be defamatory if Mann proves every element. Thus, the case is not subject to an FRCP 12(b) dismissal, and the parties can conduct discovery.

    Once discovery is complete, and Steyn testifies he reasonably believes Mann tortures data (please note that the fact that Mann manipulated his credentials by wrongly claiming he won a nobel prize, could, in and of itself, justify Steyn’s belief) the case should be ripe for a FRCP 56 motion for summary judgment.

    The judge simply said that, if Mann proves his case, he likely sustained damage. That does not mean, as the order states, Steyn’s comments were defamatory; only, they COULD be defamatory if made malicously…

    Now, all you mann-boys, get back to your mann-lovin….

  160. #160 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    Yes his friends and co conspirators rushed to defend Mann’s fraudulent use of tree rings, splices, and bullying of anyone not on board with the global warming religion.

    The key friend being the President of Penn State, where Mann works. The same president who didn’t see anything wrong with Jerry Sandusky trolling pee wee football to pick up shower buddies.

    Trees are not thermometers. Tree rings don’t record the weather. Trees maintain their own internal temperature tuned to the process of photosynthesis.

  161. #161 Desertphile
    Vote for Donald Trump! We need a wall between Canada and the USA!
    December 23, 2015

    James Mayeau: Trees are not thermometers. Tree rings don’t record the weather. Trees maintain their own internal temperature tuned to the process of photosynthesis.”

    A fine example. Well-done.

  162. #162 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 23, 2015

    Great contribution, Desertphile. Absolutely brilliant.

    Brainstorms, again, read the order closely. Saying IT WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE for a reader to interpret the comments a certain way is far different then saying Mann has met his standard. Courts rarely grant 12b6 motions, because you are effectively denying someone their day in court.

    Much easier to let discovery proceed, then dismiss pursuant to summary judgment.

  163. #163 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, Austrailia
    December 23, 2015

    Dan: “Great contribution, Desertphile. Absolutely brilliant. “

    It’s all you have earned. If you paranoid conspiracy alarmists want respect, you will need to earn it.

  164. #164 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    “I have no idea about that other blog,”

    I don’t believe you, based on
    – your other comments about issues here
    – you would have to go out of your way to find a known denialist/false information site and look around

    You knew very well what a crap-pile that place is.

  165. #165 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    James Mayeau:

    “…Trees maintain their own internal temperature tuned to the process of photosynthesis.”

    Words escape me …

  166. #166 Brainstorms
    December 23, 2015

    Dan the Denier: Mann & Steyn’s jury will NOT be made up of 12 defamation lawyers and judges.

    Sorry for you and your denialist agenda.

    It will be 12 citizen jurors, who will see a malicious blow-hard attempting to damage the career and reputation of a scientist because the malicious blow-hard doesn’t like what the scientist has to say.

    And they won’t like the fact that the malicious blow-hard is trying to suppress Mann’s free speech rights to inform the world & its politicians about Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Just like you’re laboring very hard here to get it suppressed.

    Because you don’t want to face the consequences.

    They will find you. Anyway. Your “opinions” notwithstanding.

  167. #167 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Apparently an entire field of science was dismissed based on #160. Outstanding.

  168. #168 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Dan (#122): Christopher, what line did he step over? The whole point of the subject blog post is that the same institution that investigated and cleared Jerry Sandusky of any wrongdoing also investigated and cleared Michael Mann of wrongdoing. That is a perfectly valid point to bring up, whether you agree or not.

    I don’t see why Penn State’s supposed clearing of Jerry Sandusky is relevant. Dr. Mann was not at Penn state when he did the work on MBH98/99, so it’s not like Penn State would have much reason to cover up his alleged misconduct. Yes, he is now one of their own, but the work in question was not done under their auspices. It would be simpler to dismiss him for the hypothetical falsification.

    More to the point, no other investigation in the now 17 years since MBH98 was published has found any significant error in Dr. Mann’s work. Steyn may claim not to have known this when he called Dr. Mann’s work fraudulent, but such a claim would be dubious to say the least. A non-scientist judging the work of any scientist without looking at what other scientists have said about that work? It would be like me accusing the doctors who diagnosed the late Terri Schiavo as brain-dead of malpractice.

    In Sandusky’s case, there were multiple reports of his misconduct dating from 1994. Janitor Jim Calhoun reported seeing one in 2000; assistant coach Mike McQueary reported seeing another in 2002, and met with athletic department officials ten days later. Those officials did take action against Sandusky. You can argue that it wasn’t enough, and I would agree. But it was action.

    Where are the equivalent findings about Dr. Mann’s work?

  169. #169 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    106

    By an odd coincidence the oldest papers the volume cites are by psychlogists who, fearing a more plausible exisitential threat, denounced cold warriors as acolytes of “nuclearism’ manifesting symptoms of “denial” .

    Then the Soviet Union went infarct, and they shut up for a decade before offering their services to the cause of scaring the world into the Next Big Thing after disarmament- PC ball in Greg’s Science as Culture court, the usual suspects still serving

    Plus ca change …

  170. #170 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #152 #157 Dan

    Thanks for the link. Interesting again. I can see why this one is dragging on a bit.

  171. #171 Locus
    Earth
    December 23, 2015

    Unfortunately Laden chose to ignore that criticism of Judge Ruiz’s backlog did not originate with Steyn but instead with the Commission on Judicial Disabilities and Tenure.

    “The Commission would be remiss if it did not address the serious issue of Judge Ruiz’s backlog of opinions… Of crucial importance to the proper functioning of the Court of Appeals is the timely resolution of disputes. The public’s confidence in the Court is eroded when litigants must wait multiple years for decisions to be rendered. The Commission believes that this problem is not only about the pace of opinion production, but also about a less than fully adequate appreciation on the part of Judge Ruiz as to how her backlog adversely affects the litigants, the Court, and her colleagues”.

    Commission member Noel Francisco also said,

    “It should go without saying that an appellate judge’s primary duty – if not her sole duty – is to decide cases. On this score, as my colleagues have described, Judge Ruiz’s backlog is ‘the highest by far of any of the appellate judges on the DC Court of Appeals” and, as a result, litigants often ‘must wait multiple years for decisions to be rendered’ by her… As the old adage goes, ‘justice delayed is justice denied’.

    http://legaltimes.typepad.com/files/commission-on-judicial-disabilities-and-tenure-report-vanessa-ruiz.pdf

    So clearly it’s not just Steyn who’s criticizing Judge Ruiz. Are they all racists too?

  172. #172 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Russell Seitz

    Your commitment to avenging perceived past wrongs would do credit to the finest Sicilian bandit 😉

  173. #173 RickA
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Brainstorms #156:

    Dan is correct.

    On a motion to dismiss for failure to state a claim (12(b)(6)), the court HAS to assume all the paragraphs in the complaint are true. Then the court says – assuming all these allegations are true – do they state a claim?

    The court is engaging in that exercise and saying – if everything Mann says in his complaint is taken as true – does that make out a defamation case?

    The court finds that yes – if they (all Mann’s allegations) are taken as true – they can make out a defamation case.

    Nothing more than that.

    However, after the motion to dismiss is denied and the case continues to summary judgment or to trial – Mann has to PROVE his allegations (Mann has the burden of proof).

    The Judges denial of the motion to dismiss cannot be used to say – I have met my burden of proof – that is not how civil cases work.

    It is really important for all the non-lawyers on this thread to understand the following:

    There has been no finding that Steyns writings are not opinion yet.

    There has been no finding that Steyn’s writings are false or made with reckless disregard.

    There is no finding yet that Steyn acted with malice.

    These are all items that Mann will have to PROVE at trial, by a preponderance of the evidence (slightly more than 50%).

    Hope that helps understands the Judge’s denial on the motion to dismiss.

  174. #174 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Dan (#127): Christopher, you absolutely have the right to say Steyn makes misleading and fraudulent claims, and Steyn would have no recourse.

    Now you’re broadening the argument (aka “moving the goal posts.”) Since I would effectively be accusing Steyn of fraud, he might well have recourse. As you’ve said, he would have to prove I made the accusation out of reckless disregard or malice, in order to prevail. Conversely, I would have to prove his claims really were fraudulent.

    In any case, I was not commenting on the legal merits of Dr. Mann’s case. I was pointing out the equivalence of calling someone a fraud and claiming he had performed work that was fraudulent. There is no practical difference, and claims that a difference exists have long since grown tiresome.

    Note the second paragraph of the ruling quoted here:

    http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2014/03/18/mann-motion-to-dismiss-steyns-counter-suit/

  175. #175 Rob Honeycutt
    skepticalscience.gom
    December 23, 2015

    @RickA

    You said “But both are inappropriate.”
    Maybe so.
    You are entitled to your opinion.
    Steyn is entitled to his.

    Steyn is not entitled to his own facts, which was my point that you avoided addressing. Steyn is deliberately ignoring clear and obvious facts related to Mann’s work. His original research has been shown consistent with a couple dozen subsequent millennial reconstructions. There is not one temperature reconstruction that shows anything different than Mann’s original hockey stick.

    The point is, you can’t yell fire in a crowded theater because you are NOT allowed to say anything that you like when it harms others. “Harm” would clearly extend to harm to a professional researcher’s reputation.

  176. #176 John Mashey
    December 23, 2015

    Will Happer’s research area was atomic physics, he’s now emeritus at Princeton, but that is irrelevant to this.
    He is and has been for a decade the Chairman of the George C. Marshall Insitute, one of the two key thinktanks that orchestrated the attack on Mann and the hockey stick (the other is CEI,, “coincidentally” one of the other defendants in the Mann case, who to all appearances wants to delay and avoid facing discovery).

    GMI’s CEO is WIlliam O’Keefe, who was an ExxonMobil lobbyist, and a 25-year veteran executive at the American Petroleum Institute. GMI has long gotten funding from ExxonMobil, Richard Mellon Scaife (Gulf Oil), for example.
    http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/crescendo%20climategate%20cacophony%20v1%200.pdf p.93

    See also CEI & GMI role in promotting McIntyre & McKitrick:
    http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/STRANGE.SCHOLARSHIP.V1.02.pdf

    To assess Happer’s worldview:
    http://dailyprincetonian.com/news/2009/01/professor-denies-global-warming-theory/
    “Physics professor William Happer GS ’64 has some tough words for scientists who believe that carbon dioxide is causing global warming.

    “This is George Orwell. This is the ‘Germans are the master race. The Jews are the scum of the earth.’ It’s that kind of propaganda,” Happer, the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, said in an interview. “Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Every time you exhale, you exhale air that has 4 percent carbon dioxide. To say that that’s a pollutant just boggles my mind. What used to be science has turned into a cult.””

    But, people should feel free to claim he is credible on this. That helps me assess their own credibility, i.,e., I can add them to list of people whose comments I need never read.

  177. #177 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt

    Steyn is not entitled to his own facts

    It’s not clear from the discussion of the law above that this is enforcible in the US.

  178. #178 Rob Honeycutt
    December 23, 2015

    @Dan (multiple)

    The way I read your posts, though I haven’t read every post so far, you seem to making a case that libel is impossible to prove in a court of law.

    Clearly there are libel laws and surely there are libel cases that have been won. So, what is the standard which a case has to rise to be won?

  179. #179 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    BBD

    It’s hard enough for some historians to record the past without others trying to erase or rewrite it

  180. #180 Rob Honeycutt
    December 23, 2015

    BBD… But I think that’s exactly what the Judge stated in this case. Fraud is not a matter of opinion. It is a statement of fact.

  181. #181 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    JM:
    ” I can add them to list of people whose comments I need never read.”

    Cave homenibus cumque liber solo

  182. #182 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt

    Clearly there are libel laws and surely there are libel cases that have been won. So, what is the standard which a case has to rise to be won?

    I asked Dan about this at #148 and he responded at #152 and #157.

    There would seem to be a discretionary element that needs further exploration (following the judge’s remarks), but also an indication that it is difficult (as Dan says) to bring a successful libel action if you are a public figure in the US.

  183. #183 Victor Venema (@VariabilityBlog)
    December 23, 2015

    You cannot call this a dog whistle.

  184. #184 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Russell Seitz

    It’s hard enough for some historians to record the past without others trying to erase or rewrite it.

    As you know, extrapolation from the personal to the whole is the pathetic fallacy.

  185. #185 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 23, 2015

    “It’s hard enough for some historians to record the past without others trying to erase or rewrite it.”

    It’s hard enough to deal with the present without partisans attempting to overwrite it with the past. The GOP, party of Lincoln (!), but…

  186. #186 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    Media and rights organizations defend National Review, et al. against Michael Mann (The Washington Post)

    Of note, the defendants position is being supported by a wide range of media organizations and free speech proponents. The Reporters Committee for the Freedom of the Press, for example, filed an amicus brief in conjunction with the ACLU, the Washington Post, and two dozen other media organizations arguing that all of the speech at issue merits First Amendment protection. Another amicus brief was filed by the Electronic Frontier Foundation and a group of online publishers, and another — supporting the defendants solely on the procedural question — was filed by the District of Columbia. Copies of these briefs and other amici supporting the defendants may be found here.

    Not everyone is lining up behind the defendants, however. NYT columnist Paul Krugman cheered Mann’s decision to file suit this week, though it appears his opinion on the matter is based on the uncritical acceptance of Mann’s characterization of events.

    Where are all the eco medias (and there is a keister load of them) filing briefs on behalf of Michael Mann?
    Whenever I enter a heated argument on the demerits of global warming there’s always that one fella who jumps in with a list of sciency sounding societies in favor of the AGW boogieman.

    Where are those science societies amicus briefs in favor of Mann?
    Do they all know something you don’t?

    BTW Greg. Nice blog. I like the way you have it set up. Too many bloggers use the nested comment system. This is more democratic.

  187. #187 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    #167 cabc

    December 23, 2015
    Apparently an entire field of science was dismissed based on #160. Outstanding.

    You give too much credit.

    First, it wasn’t science, this dissecting of tree rings to divine climate. Second, it wasn’t me.
    (Tree) Leaves resist temperature extremes regardless of the weather.

  188. #188 Rob Honeycutt
    skepticalscience.com
    December 23, 2015

    BBD @181…

    I’m not sure I trust Dan’s opinion on these points. There are certainly a number of celebrity libel cases that have been won, thus it’s clearly not virtually impossible.

  189. #189 cabc
    December 23, 2015

    Article is about leaves

  190. #190 Russell Seitz
    December 23, 2015

    No BBD, pathos lies in chosing the mirror of ideology over the window of history .

  191. #191 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    #187 Rob Honeycutt

    To be fair, Dan linked to legal sources which appear to support his argument.

    To be clear, I’m not implying a (false) equivalence between the law and physical climatology.

  192. #192 BBD
    December 23, 2015

    Russell Seitz

    Pathos is not the pathetic fallacy. And false equivalence paves the primrose path to something hot.

  193. #193 James Mayeaud
    December 23, 2015

    December 23, 2015
    Article is about leaves

    And the tail wags the dog.

    How does the tree know when it’s time to drop leaves? Why bother tossing out the old, when it could just wait for new leaves to push off the old and take their place? Why do trees that live in cold places have skinny leaves?

  194. #194 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    December 23, 2015
    Article is about leaves

    And the tail wags the dog.

    How does the tree know when it’s time to drop leaves? Why bother tossing out the old, when it could just wait for new leaves to push off the old and take their place? Why do trees that live in cold places have skinny leaves?

  195. #195 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    James Mayeau:

    “First, it wasn’t science, this dissecting of tree rings to divine climate.”

    The article casts doubt on the use of oxygen isotope ratios to correlate tree rings with temperature.

    However, this is not by any means the only way that tree rings are used in climate reconstructions.

    Nor does the paper explain the observered changes in ratios.

  196. #196 Christopher Winter
    December 23, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt (#187): I’m not sure I trust Dan’s opinion on these points. There are certainly a number of celebrity libel cases that have been won, thus it’s clearly not virtually impossible.

    Certainly. One example is Calder v. Jones — the libel suit won by Shirley Jones against the National Enquirer.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calder_v._Jones

  197. #197 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    James Mayeau:

    In particular, MBH 98 didn’t depend on oxygen isotope ratios but rather changes in growth rate, an issue not addressed by the paper you reference.

  198. #198 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    dhogaza: “In particular, MBH 98 didn’t depend on oxygen isotope ratios but rather changes in growth rate, an issue not addressed by the paper you reference.”

    Indeed. Removing the tree ring data, the other proxies still show a hockey stick.

  199. #199 John Mashey
    December 23, 2015

    #160, #186

    I notice WUWT Surprise: Leaves Maintain Temperature, new findings may put dendroclimatology as metric of past temperature into question

    That may be just coincidence, but maybe not.

    What is clear that Mr Mayeau:
    a) Knows nothing about MBH98/99, which used tree ring widths or densities, not tree isotopes.

    b) Does not own copies of Ray Bradley’s Paleolcimatology 2nd Ed (1999): pp.434-438 (of pp.397-438 seciton)
    3rd Ed (2015) pp.493-497. (of pp.453-498 on tree rings)

    c) May not realize that Ray Bradley and Malcolm Hughes were coauthors with Mann. Both know a bit about tree rings, and still did when I saw them last week at AGU.

    The first (1999)says:
    “Isotopic dendrocroclimatology has much potential, but significant efforts are still needed to complement ring-width and densitrometric studies.”

    The second says:
    “Isotopic dendroclimatology is sill in its early stages, …IT may fulfill its greatest promise in tropic dendroclimatology, and in multiproxy studies that combine several isotopes and in combination with traditional ring (width and density) dendrochronology.”

  200. #200 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    Piling on …

    “First, it wasn’t science, this dissecting of tree rings to divine climate.”

    1. One technique, whose efficacy may be in doubt, is not an entire field of science.

    2. The fact that follow-on science brings into question earlier work does not mean that the earlier work is not science. Even if that earlier work defined an entire field of science, which, of course, in this case it does not.

    James doesn’t understand science. He does (thanks, JM) understand how to cut-‘n-paste from WUWT quite well, though.

  201. #201 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    Desertphile:

    “Removing the tree ring data, the other proxies still show a hockey stick.”

    True. But what I meant was that the tree ring proxy analysis wasn’t based on the oxy iso ratios at all, so Mayeua’s paper reference is not relevant. JM said it more completely, above.

  202. #202 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 23, 2015

    dhogaza: “True. But what I meant was that the tree ring proxy analysis wasn’t based on the oxy iso ratios at all, so Mayeua’s paper reference is not relevant. JM said it more completely, above.”

    I saw that. :-) I am expressing wonder and awe at Mayeau’s citing _Nature_ to some how defend his belief that tree leaves are used as temperature proxies for over the past 800 years…. when leaves tend to fall off trees every year. I was staggered at the brilliance of his wit and insight.

  203. #203 James Mayeau
    December 23, 2015

    Oh look. Dhogaza found his voice. In fact he’s so full of blather now he’s even trying to project words into my mouth.

    That’s a Christmas miracle is what that is.

    I don’t need you speaking for me Dhogaza. The process is pretty specific. Using heat sensors on treetops.
    Not just single isotopes of this or that.

    You can repeat the experiment yourself if you like. Seeing is believing.

  204. #204 dean
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    I was staggered at the brilliance of his wit and insight.

    Yup. It was truly a level of intellectual activity not often seen in the world of science.

  205. #205 dhogaza
    December 23, 2015

    I have no idea what Mayeau believes regarding leaves, trees as temp proxies, etc after his last totally off-the-wall remark.

    It is obvious he has absolutely no clue as to what he’s talking about.

  206. #206 SteveP
    Lame R. Smh Center For Attorneys With Science Envy
    December 23, 2015

    It is truly heart worming to see so many paid and unpaid denialist sect workers here valiantly defending their legal arguments in the science arena. Why, with merely a few phrases from an irrelevant citation, they can fend off STEM experts for daze on end. Our legal system is truly a marvel, isn’t it?

  207. #207 Brainstorms
    December 23, 2015

    James, you’ve been outed, and responded by doubling down…

    Caught again. Want to try your “double for nothing” once more? You’re very entertaining… ’til your schtick gets tiresome.

  208. #208 Locus
    Earth
    December 23, 2015

    #196

    I’m sorry but Calder v. Jones was not a successful libel suit. The Supreme Court merely ruled that Jones could sue the Enquirer in California even though the reporter was based in Florida.

    Jones and the Enquirer eventually settled out of court.

    Yes, there have been *some* successful defamation cases brought by public figures. But to quote the Digital Media Law Project …

    “It should be noted that the actual malice standard focuses on the defendant’s actual state of mind at the time of publication. Unlike the negligence standard discussed later in this section, the actual malice standard is not measured by what a reasonable person would have published or investigated prior to publication. Instead, the plaintiff must produce clear and convincing evidence that the defendant actually knew the information was false or entertained serious doubts as to the truth of his publication. In making this determination, a court will look for evidence of the defendant’s state of mind at the time of publication and will likely examine the steps he took in researching, editing, and fact checking his work. It is generally not sufficient, however, for a plaintiff to merely show that the defendant didn’t like her, failed to contact her for comment, knew she had denied the information, relied on a single biased source, or failed to correct the statement after publication.

    Not surprisingly, this is a very difficult standard for a plaintiff to establish. Indeed, in only a handful of cases over the last decades have plaintiffs been successful in establishing the requisite actual malice to prove defamation.”

    http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/proving-fault-actual-malice-and-negligence

  209. #209 Brian Schmidt
    United States
    December 23, 2015

    Yes, public figures can win libel suits in the US, you can find examples if you dig around. It’s also correct that it’s difficult, so they usually don’t bother with them. So this shows how far Steyn and NR have gone beyond the pale if they lose. If they win, well as we’ve said, that just shows it’s very difficult for a public figure to win a libel suit.

    Regarding wild claims that Hillary is a criminal must constitute defamation under this standard, and therefore the standard is wrong, that’s all unlikely. It would probably be viewed as hyperbole. OTOH if someone said Hillary is a convicted felon with a criminal record in New York State that anyone could look up, then that’s defamatory, although not worth her bothering with.

  210. #210 Locus
    Earth
    December 23, 2015

    I notice that many of Mann’s lawsuit supporters seem to be hanging on the idea that Mann has been vindicated by multiple investigations. In that case people should be worried by a statement made by one of the judges during oral arguments in front of the D.C. Court of Appeals.

    She noted that with regards to Mann’s assertions of multiple exonerations the defendants “… take them apart in their reply brief quite thoroughly. At least from their perspective.” and asks how the plaintiff gets to “knowing falsity”.

    [audio src="http://www.climateaudit.info/proceedings/legal/mann%20v%20steyn/Mann%20OA%20Audio%201.mp3" /]

    [audio src="http://www.climateaudit.info/proceedings/legal/mann%20v%20steyn/Mann%20OA%20Audio%202.mp3" /]

    Alarm bells should be ringing…

  211. #211 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    People like to cut and paste Milks’ list of ‘hockey sticks’. Unfortunately people don’t seem to be actually *reading* any of those papers.

    Here’s one hockey stick from the list. Only it’s not a hockey stick, but a commentary on climate reconstructions.

    http://coast.gkss.de/staff/zorita/Frank_etal_WIRESCllmChange_2010.pdf

    Quoting,

    “Icons of past temperature variability, as featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over nearly two decades, have changed from a schematic sketch in 1990, to a seemingly well-solved story in 2001, to more explicit recognition of significant uncertainties in 2007.”

    And,

    “The 1990 sketch was replaced 11 years later by a quantitative reconstruction for the entire NH by Mann et al. 16 Annual precision and y-axis in degrees Celsius contrasted strongly with the 1990 figure and suggested a marked increase of knowledge. The little varying, yet slowly declining temperatures over about 900 years of natural variability, reversed by the strong upward trend over the past century, served as a symbol for human impact on temperature change. The existence of an MWP and LIA were hinted at, but only as part of an almost negligible pre-anthropogenic temperature change. Even though this reconstruction was presented with calibration uncertainties, their common omission in subsequent discussion, may have led to an overly optimistic assessment of the degree to which past temperatures were understood.

    And,

    “In the most recent IPCC report, further consideration of existing and the development of new reconstructions, methodological disputes, and analysis called for a retreat from the 2001 position that reconstructed temperatures were well understood.”

    And for those divergence fans,

    “The climatic signal in proxy records is now routinely calibrated—and often verified—via comparisons with instrumental records allowing assessment of proxy trustworthiness in the recent period.”

    Take that Mr. Hide-the-Decline!

    This particular publication could be used by the *defense* at the Mann libel trial. Mann’s hockey stick was presented as a “seemingly well-solved story” from which the IPCC had to “retreat”.

  212. #212 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    Another hockey stick from Milks’ list is this paper.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2008/09/02/0805721105.full.pdf

    Authored by Michael Mann himself.

    How can this be considered an independent confirmation of Mann’s previous work?

  213. #213 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 24, 2015

    “At least from their perspective.”

    In other words, are they even capable of knowing their asses from holes in the ground? One would not necessarily expect blog commenters to have an answer for that. Hopefully Mann’s legal team has an idea or two.

    Likewise from the comments here, one wonders whether there is, in all the world, sufficient meta-literacy about science to even formulate a ruling that isn’t confused by and saturated with denialist tropes and professional propaganda. Presumably the legal system has the tools for dealing with that.

  214. #214 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    One more time:
    This lawsuit is against:
    Steyn
    National Review
    Rand Simberg
    Competitive Enterprise Institute

    Of these, 3 have done everything to avoid trial and discovery.

    As it happens, there is a long, already-public record of at least one of these (CEI) running a multi-year campaign to damage and harass Mann, Bradley, Hughes.

    There are FOIAs that by happenstance showed that CEI’s Myron Ebell got Joe Barton’s intimidating demands … before some of the MBH folks.
    There are fascinating records of GMI/CEI sessions that GMI kindly placed online, archived long ago. There are analyses of missing connections to be asked about. There are lists of relevant names, some of whom really won’t like getting dragged into this as witnesses.

    Now, the question is: do Mann’s lawyers know any of this?
    A: the relevant report is cited half a dozen times in Mann’s book, so it is highly likely his lawyers know about it.
    http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/STRANGE.SCHOLARSHIP.V1.02.pdf pp.25-32.

  215. #215 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    Similarly this paper from Milks’ list was co-authored by Mann.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/108/27/11017.full.pdf

    Again how can this be construed as an independent confirmation of Mann’s previous work?

  216. #216 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    This paper from Milks’ list is co-authored by Richard Muller.

    http://www.scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-101.pdf

    The same Richard Muller who says that Mann’s conduct was so out of line that Muller won’t read his papers any more.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BQpciw8suk

    And this ends up on a list supposedly vindicating Mann?

    Besides this paper only talks about climate reconstructions extending back to the 1750’s.

  217. #217 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    This paper from Milks’ list says that it’s been warmer at times during the interglacial periods. But *if* the IPCC *predictions* for 2100 come to pass, the temperature will be the warmest.

    http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf

    So I guess we’ll just have to wait until 2100 to see if this hockey stick “confirmation” works out. See you then! It’s on my calendar.

  218. #218 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #110

    And here’s an abstract from yet another paper on Milks’ list.

    http://hol.sagepub.com/content/23/3/364

    “We describe the analysis of existing and new maximum-latewood-density (MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) data from the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden and the construction of 1500 year chronologies. Some previous work found that MXD and TRW chronologies from Torneträsk were inconsistent over the most recent 200 years, even though they both reflect predominantly summer temperature influences on tree growth. We show that this was partly a result of systematic bias in MXD data measurements and partly a result of inhomogeneous sample selection from living trees (modern sample bias). We use refinements of the simple Regional Curve Standardisation (RCS) method of chronology construction to identify and mitigate these biases. The new MXD and TRW chronologies now present a largely consistent picture of long-timescale changes in past summer temperature in this region over their full length, indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. ce 900–1100) and the latter half of the 20th century. Future work involving the updating of MXD chronologies using differently sourced measurements may require similar analysis and appropriate adjustment to that described here to make the data suitable for the production of un-biased RCS chronologies. The use of ‘growth-rate’ based multiple RCS curves is recommended to identify and mitigate the problem of ‘modern sample bias’. ”

    I’d like to draw attention to the phrase,

    “… indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. ce 900–1100) and the latter half of the 20th century.”

    So this confirms Michael Mann’s hockey stick how?

  219. #219 Brian Schmidt
    United States
    December 24, 2015

    Locus – regarding Muller, your Youtube video is from 2011. Muller then went on to do his own review of the instrumental record (the blade portion of the hockey stick) and found similar results to Mann and everyone else, a massive rise in temperature. You can get basics here and links to more info:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth

    And yes, Mann is allowed to continue doing research on the subject. That research, usually with co-authors and with additional peer review, provides additional confirmation if the results lead to the same conclusion.

  220. #220 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #213

    The judge added that caveat because the defendant’s perspective *is what matters* in determining actual malice.

    Please go back and read Dan’s and RickA’s commentary on defamation of a public figure. They lay it all out for you.

  221. #221 Lee Grove
    Seoul/San Diego
    December 24, 2015

    As a science teacher, I can almost understand the virulent attack on the science that EXPLAINS global warming: the vast majority of Americans are idiots, and having been humiliated in every science class they’ve ever taken, they are out for revenge. Mark Steyn is the idiot among idiots, though maybe not: he might just be using the endless supply of American idiots to make a buck; I suspect that is actually the case. There really is no other explanation for the large numbers of morons that still can’t comprehend global warming is simply a matter governed by physics, and thermodynamics more specifically. The Cock brothers can only have so many whores out there whoring; the rest must just be vengeful morons who couldn’t spell thermodynamics if it would strike Michael Mann dead upon so doing.

  222. #222 Locus
    Earth
    December 24, 2015

    #219

    I’m sorry but Muller’s sharp criticism of Mann’s work continued after the announcement of the results of the BEST project.

    Here’s Muller in 2012,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Moum_SZ5NNY

    And again Muller in 2013,

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/opinion/a-pause-not-an-end-to-warming.html?_r=0

    And yes Mann can continue his research as much as someone is willing to pay for it. But it should not be considered as *independent* confirmation of his earlier work. Let’s put it this way. If Willie Soon writes four more papers would you accept that as confirmation of his first paper?

  223. #223 James Mayeau
    December 24, 2015

    What was Mann measuring with his hockeystick?

    It wasn’t temperature. Trees regulate their own temperature to compensate for variations in the weather.

    Near as I can figure he was measuring what he could plausibly get away with guided by greed, and an understanding of what the political forces of the day were shopping for.
    Huge amounts of public money.

  224. #224 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    Did people not notice that Locus shifted the goalposts onto a strawmam, trhat also showed he hadn’t read Mann et al(2008)?
    “How can this be considered an independent confirmation of Mann’s previous work?”

    Nobody had said “independent”, but in any cases, the paper (which I downloaded in 2010 and still have), was a new study, with an expanded set of authors, a vastly expanded set of proxies, and several different sets of improved mathematical methods, as there had been progress there in ten years. They also did them without tree rings.

    Still /the new results were generally within MBH99’s error bars.
    So are other credible reconstructions that cover compatible geographies, even with different methods,.

    The earlier studies (MBH98, Jones et al(1998) and MBH99 stirred great interest and many improvements over those early works.
    (see this, which shows Jones next to MBH99.

    For the nth time, I wish John Tukey were still around/, because I have a pretty good idea what he would say about all this from a statistics viewpoint.

    Mann et al. 2008: Reconstructed global temperatures between AD 200 and AD 2000 using 1,209 independent proxies ranging from tree rings to boreholes to sediment cores to stalagmite cores to Greenland and Antarctic ice cores.

    That’s a paper I just happen to have,:

    “Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council
    report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature
    Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit still not reaching recent levels.”

    The “not independent” meme originated with McIntyre and CEI/GMI, and is one of those things that makes a nice sound-bite for people who don’t know the field. “Independent” is hardly binary.

    Science is filled with series of studies that involve some of the same people doing studies that later confirm or disconfirm their earlier results.

    Of course, see PAGES2K.

  225. #225 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Locus

    John Mashey is correct. The ‘Mannean’ Hockey Stick has evolved, but never broken. Attempts to portray the ground-breaking work in MBH98/99 as dishonest and misleading do not derive from the science, but from misrepresentations of it.

    It’s also worth bearing in mind that were there evidence that the MCA was global, synchronous and as warm as or warmer than the present, it would suggest that the climate system is relatively sensitive to radiative perturbation. So we would be at the higher end of the risk spectrum from CO2 emissions.

  226. #226 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    James Mayeu

    What was Mann measuring with his hockeystick?

    It wasn’t temperature. Trees regulate their own temperature to compensate for variations in the weather.

    Near as I can figure he was measuring what he could plausibly get away with guided by greed, and an understanding of what the political forces of the day were shopping for.
    Huge amounts of public money.

    Then you must explain why so many subsequent studies have essentially validated MBH99. Or does your conspiracy theory encompass every researcher working on millennial temperature reconstructions?

    BTW any point you believe you are making with your assertions about dendro proxies is invalidated by the use of other proxies, eg. isotopic archives, sediment cores, speleotherms etc.

    Please have a think about that before repeating that claim yet again.

  227. #227 zebra
    December 24, 2015

    Well, this has been fun.

    @James Mayeu 223

    “trees regulate their own internal temperature”

    I regulate the temperature of my house, and you can find a record of that in my electricity and fuel expenditures. Do you think trees respond to temperature by some magical process that has no effect on their energy budget?

    You know, I still have this criticism for the science-oriented group that you argue with Denialists about these large data sets when most of it is refuted with just simple physics. But carry on the good fight– I think the recent actual climate is pretty much leaving only the dead-enders still active.

  228. #228 SteveP
    December 24, 2015

    Dear Drowning Tiger,

    Wonderful revelation about tree leaf homeostasis! We applaud your attempt to use science to try to prove a point. Good start! However, the possession of one fact is not going to be sufficient for you to win an argument with scientists. You will, of course, to continue claim victory in order to preserve some level of dignity, and your testosterone level, but those who are knowledgeable in the art are taking great amusement in your foolish floundering.

    You have discovered the not particularly surprising semi-precious gem of knowledge that plants try to maintain an optimum temperature of their leaves through things like transpiration and turgor, a phenomenon any competent gardener/botanist/biochemist could easily deduce from observing things like the rattle snake plant next to me now, or a squash plant on a hot summer day, or from the knowledge that living things have internal biochemical mechanisms to regulate their physiological processes. However, extrapolating from that one fact to your complete condemnation of the science of dendrochronology is about on the par of a martial art student learning how to stand at attention and thinking that they are now ready to fight a master.

    Knowing that tree leaves regulate their temperature to optimize photosynthesis in no way invalidates dendrochronology. Why don’t you read that two or three times before you proceed. Tree growth is sensitive to temperature. That is well established. The relationship between tree-ring growth and temperature has been established through measurements or tree rings and temperatures over centuries. One does not need to know the temperature of the tree leaves, to know that tree growth, and hence tree ring thickness, is related to temperature. And please note that in modern times, with massive man made perturbations of the environment like increasing carbon dioxide, acid rain, industrial pollution, and stratospheric ozone depletion, the tree ring correlation is changing. But we don’t need tree rings now because we have thermometers. Got it?

  229. #229 Rob Honeycutt
    December 24, 2015

    @Locus

    Where is the millennial temperature reconstruction that shows these other constructions are wrong?

    Every time someone attempts a reconstruction they get a hockey stick. And do you honestly think “contrarians” haven’t tried their own reconstruction? Clearly they have but they’ve not published it. You know why? They didn’t get the answer that supports their position. Maybe that’s an indication for you as to which side is approaching this issue honestly and which side is approaching it from a political ideology.

  230. #230 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 24, 2015

    Locus @ 220

    My comment was about the plaintiff’s response to the question of what the defendant perceives. That is all. I don’t know what you thought you were reading.

    As for your other comments, I’ll simply point out that climate science works the same way as other sciences. In fact you could argue that it is largely other sciences applied the study of climate. That is to say, your entry into the subject is not to assume that as a process it functions like the op-ed pages of your favorite rag.

    So conspiracy theories, sophistry, and other products of fevered imagination do not move the conversation forward here any more than they do for creationists, anti-vaxers, lunar landing denialists, etc. etc.

  231. #231 Pete Freans
    December 24, 2015

    @ Christopher Winter. Steyn’s two books, “Climate Chnage: The Facts” and “A Disgrace to the Profession” are not collections of brief statements by climatologists disagreeing with Mann and man made global warming. They are detailed essays, with scholarly citations, doing the above. Also, the court of public opinion (more importantly the court of peer review) is what we are talking about here. Whether they testify under oath or not is irrelevant. They have voluntarily submitted to Steyn to publish their work which contradicts Mann & man made global warming. Kindly read those books before suggesting that Mann’s work is universally accepted.

  232. #232 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    James Mayeu

    “What was Mann measuring with his hockeystick?

    It wasn’t temperature. Trees regulate their own temperature to compensate for variations in the weather.”

    Another astonishing display of miscomprehension of the paper in Nature which he so proudly cites in his astonishing display of ignorance as to what the tree ring proxy analysis used by MBH 98 actually was.

    It is as though he is intentionally maintaining his ignorance …

  233. #233 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    Pete Freans:

    “They have voluntarily submitted to Steyn to publish their work which contradicts Mann & man made global warming.”

    PT Barnum had kind words of appreciation for the likes of you: “there’s a sucker born every minute”.

    If you believe the physics underlying climate science is wrong, you can test our physical understanding of the radiative properties of CO2 by taking the CO2 laser challenge:

    1. buy yourself a reasonably powerful CO2 laser
    2. point it at your forehead
    3. while muttering “Steyn has disproved our understanding of climate science”, turn it on

    You won’t be around to clean up the mess that results …

  234. #234 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    #231 Pete Freans

    Scientific studies are critiqued in the scientific literature, not self-published tosh peddled by some pig-ignorant right-wing demagogue.

    When we turn to the published literature, we find various millennial temperature reconstructions that essentially confirm – and refine – the original MBH99 results.

    This begs a serious question: why are you waving the aforementioned vanity publishing project around instead of a stack of papers showing exactly how MBH has been fundamentally invalidated?

  235. #235 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    BBD: This begs a serious question: why are you waving the aforementioned vanity publishing project around instead of a stack of papers showing exactly how MBH has been fundamentally invalidated?”

    The denialists’ answer:

    var audio = new Audio(‘CRICKETS_CHIRPING.WAV’);
    audio.play();

  236. #236 Clay
    USA
    December 24, 2015

    After reading the article and comments section I’ve observed that the prevailing opinion is “free speech be d***ed we need to save the planet.”

  237. #237 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    Clay: “After reading the article and comments section I’ve observed that the prevailing opinion is “free speech be d***ed we need to save the planet.””

    Your complaints about your low reading comprehension skills should be addressed elsewhere, where a mental health care professional can help you. This is a science blog.

    Also, what the bloody anal fuck is “d***ed?”

  238. #238 Clay
    December 24, 2015

    The hurdle for libel is extremely high for public figures. Mann has to prove Steyn doesn’t believe what he said and that his intent was purely to harm Mann. The speech is obviously political so it seems like the case should have been thrown out.

  239. #239 Narad
    December 24, 2015

    There are clear limits to free speech, and for good reason. You can’t yell “fire” in a crowded theater because of the harm it could do to others.

    This is one that should have been retired a long time ago.

  240. #240 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    The speech is obviously political …

    And its political intent is to stifle Mann’s Freedom of Speech by damaging his academic reputation, doing so with obvious malice and a reckless disregard for the truth, so …

    It is libel “so it seems like the case should have been brought to trial already.

    There. Fixed that for ya.

  241. #241 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    After reading the article and comments section I’ve observed that the prevailing opinion is “The libeling of scientists be damned. Oh, and we need to save the planet.”

  242. #242 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Dear Clay & Narad

    Please try to distinguish between what constitutes a case in US law (which enshrines the right to free speech) and what constitutes a robust scientific argument (which is focused best fit of hypothesis to evidence).

    They are not the same. The absurdity of trying to establish a (false) equivalence between them should be obvious, but apparently is not.

  243. #243 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    Clay:

    “After reading the article and comments section I’ve observed that the prevailing opinion is “free speech be d***ed we need to save the planet.””

    The 1st Amendment gives Steyn the right to say whatever he damned well pleases.

    Laws against defamatory speech give him the opportunity to pay for the consequences of his exercising his 1st Amendment right to free speech when he crosses the line drawn by those laws.

  244. #244 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Sorry, that should be:

    ” (which is focused on the best fit of hypothesis to evidence).”

    Parsimoniously, of course.

  245. #245 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    “There are clear limits to free speech, and for good reason. You can’t yell “fire” in a crowded theater because of the harm it could do to others.”

    Not true, really You can yell “fire” in a crowded theater when there is no fire, but if harm comes to people or property as a result, you are liable for having done so …

  246. #246 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    dhogaza

    Laws against defamatory speech give him the opportunity to pay for the consequences of his exercising his 1st Amendment right to free speech when he crosses the line drawn by those laws.

    While one may hope so, I was obliged to concede last night that US law places a higher value on freedom of speech than on freedom from libel.

  247. #247 James Mayeau
    December 24, 2015

    Wonderful revelation about tree leaf homeostasis! We applaud your attempt to use science to try to prove a point. Good start! However, the possession of one fact is not going to be sufficient for you to win an argument with scientists.

    Actually Helliker & Richter is enough when the topic is millennial temperature reconstructions. You bunch of one trick ponies. Sit. SIT! SIT.
    Mann, you can’t even get that one right.

    Everyone of those pile on’s. Everyone of the double downs on tree rings. Every half baked defense, and circling of the wagons around Michael Mann, just cements the moral bankruptcy of climatology.

    Otoh anybody can spot review Helliker and Richter with an IR scope and a tree.

  248. #248 Fragmeister
    December 24, 2015

    “@ Christopher Winter. Steyn’s two books, “Climate Chnage: The Facts” and “A Disgrace to the Profession” are not collections of brief statements by climatologists disagreeing with Mann and man made global warming. They are detailed essays, with scholarly citations, doing the above. Also, the court of public opinion (more importantly the court of peer review) is what we are talking about here. Whether they testify under oath or not is irrelevant. They have voluntarily submitted to Steyn to publish their work which contradicts Mann & man made global warming. Kindly read those books before suggesting that Mann’s work is universally accepted.”

    Oh, boy. Where to start? Darwin, Einsten, two more scientists for whom we could find a pile of dissenting voices. Doesn’t make the dissenters right, does it? More problematically, scientific issues are not solved by who shouts loudest, who has an opinion or who publishes a book. They are solved by evidence and some need to be reminded that MBH98 has been supported by a stack of later studies saying essentially the same thing.

    My opinion of Steyn’s comment that has led to this case. There is a matter of fact to be sorted – did Mann distort or abuse the data. If he did, so did his co authors whose reputations will be stained as a result. A series of investigations have concluded that Steyn is wrong and that Mann did not commit scientific fraud. I suspect a judge will not disagree with the scientific community.

  249. #249 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 24, 2015

    Clay 236
    An incorrect though unsurprisingly waspish caricature.

    Clay 237
    Defamatory speech can’t be politically motivated? Nonsense.

    There is enough of a question about the merits that the matter can go to trial.

  250. #250 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    James Mayeau

    Actually Helliker & Richter is enough when the topic is millennial temperature reconstructions.

    Please see #226:

    Then you must explain why so many subsequent studies have essentially validated MBH99. Or does your conspiracy theory encompass every researcher working on millennial temperature reconstructions?

    BTW any point you believe you are making with your assertions about dendro proxies is invalidated by the use of other proxies, eg. isotopic archives, sediment cores, speleotherms etc.

    Please have a think about that before repeating that claim yet again.

  251. #251 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    James Mayeau

    “Otoh anybody can spot review Helliker and Richter with an IR scope and a tree.”

    talk about missing the point … someone can’t see the forest for the trees.

    idiot talks on blogs proclaiming the take-down of a field of science by citing a paper that claims no such thing. science marches forward, unaware of the existence of the idiot. progress and the advancement of knowledge continues, despite the idiot’s efforts to lower our collective IQ down to his double-digit level.

  252. #252 Clay
    USA
    December 24, 2015

    I was making an educated statement about US defamation lawsuits. You do not have to like it but the burden of evidence is on the plaintiff to prove the defendant didn’t mean what he said. If the plaintiff is a public figure the bar is set incredibly high.

    See:
    Hustler Magazine and Larry C. Flynt, Petitioners v. Jerry Falwell

    We are free to be angry about Steyn’s blog post but I highly doubt Mann will win.

  253. #253 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    Clay:

    “Hustler Magazine and Larry C. Flynt, Petitioners v. Jerry Falwell”

    from wikipedia:

    “Thus, Hustler magazine’s parody of Jerry Falwell was deemed to be within the law, because the Court found that reasonable people would not have interpreted the parody to contain factual claims, leading to a reversal of the jury verdict in favor of Falwell, who had previously been awarded $150,000 in damages by a lower court.”

    My understanding is that Steyn isn’t claiming that his writings are parody, and that he’s only poking fun at Mann.

    Any judge who were to read this thread, for instance, would be disabused of the notion that reasonable people wouldn’t take Steyn’s claims as being factual. For some definitions of “reasonable”, at least.

  254. #254 Clay
    USA
    December 24, 2015

    dhogaza the amici brief filed on behalf of Steyn by the American Civil Liberties Union, the Reporters Committee for Press Freedom, the American Society of News Editors, the Association of American Publishers, the Association of Alternative Newsmedia (The Village Voice et al), NBC Universal, Bloomberg News, the publishers of USA Today, Time, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Los Angeles Times, The Detroit Free Press, The Seattle Times, The Arizona Republic and The Bergen County Record.

    It can be found by googling: Amicus Curiae Mark Steyn

    The lawsuit is important because it will set a precedent for future libel law. Free Speech means protecting unpopular sometimes ugly speech from prosecution. I understand your anger with Steyn but Mann’s solution is overreaching.

  255. #255 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    … but the burden of evidence is on the plaintiff to prove the defendant didn’t mean what he said.

    The law/court doesn’t care if the defendant meant what he said; it’s concerned with the fact that the defendant published his libelous statement as a fact rather than as an opinion, did so with malice, and the result could reasonably be taken as harmful to the plaintiff.

    As happens to be the case with Steyn and Mann…

  256. #256 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    Free Speech includes the responsibility of protecting unpopular sometimes ugly targets of such speech from persecution.

  257. #257 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    C’mon, Clay, let’s get it right.

    “Free Speech” in the United States does not allow citizens to practice libel under the cover of whinging about their free speech rights to do so.

  258. #258 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    #255 Brainstorms

    The law/court doesn’t care if the defendant *meant* what he said; it’s concerned with the fact that the defendant published his libelous statement as a fact rather than as an opinion, did so with malice, and the result could reasonably be taken as harmful to the plaintiff.

    Actually, I’m not sure that this is correct. From the link Dan posted upthread:

    Under the rules set forth in Sullivan, a public official cannot recover from a person who publishes a communication about a public official’s conduct or fitness unless the defendant knew that the statement was false or acted in reckless disregard of the statement’s truth or falsity. This standard is referred to as “actual malice,” although malice in this sense does not mean ill-will. Instead, the actual malice standard refers to the defendant’s knowledge of the truth or falsity of the statement.

  259. #259 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Since it is abundantly clear that Steyn is not on top of his brief when it comes to climate science in general and Mann’s work in particular, it would be difficult to demonstrate that MS didn’t know he was spouting bollocks.

  260. #260 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Sorry:

    Since it is abundantly clear that Steyn is not on top of his brief when it comes to climate science in general and Mann’s work in particular, it would be difficult to demonstrate that MS knew he was spouting bollocks.

  261. #261 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    #258 BBD

    Does this apply given that Mann is not a “public official”? I read that as someone holding a political (governing) office, not an academic. Does Dan’s link make that distinction, or lump them together?

  262. #262 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    For some insight: into the beliefs and knowledge of climate science:

    1) I strongly recommend A four-party view of US environmental concern
    See Figure 1, one of whose take-aways is that:
    a) Self-identified Tea Party adherents were by far the least well informed on straightforward science questions … and the most confident they are well-informed.

    b) Of course, a Tea Party guy who thinks WUWT is science, is invincible in his beliefs. This is unsurprising, given the well-documented Koch+Big Tobacco fostering of the Tea Party.

    2) From my experience, I have never once seen a serious Dunning-Kruger afflictee recover, perhaps because they have Sauron-sized Morton’s Demons to repel facts they don’t like. (see Pseudoskeptics are not skeptics.

    3) There’s lots of Dunning-Kruger in this thread, on both science and law.

  263. #263 Rob Honeycutt
    December 24, 2015

    Clay @ 237…

    Steyn doesn’t believe what he said and that his intent was purely to harm Mann.

    Incorrect. Mann merely show a reckless disregard for facts, which essentially describes Steyn’s raison d’tete.

  264. #264 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    I think Steyn did intend to harm Mann: Steyn wanted to damage Mann’s reputation.

    Why? Because if Mann maintained a highly-regarded reputation, his published results would carry weight — not only in the climate science community, but also with politicians charged with enacting policy — policy that would include taking steps to mitigate the effects of AGW that climate science has been bringing to light.

    Steyn seeks to damage Mann’s reputation so as to make his results come into question, through association with claims of fraud. With those results in question, the whole of climate science can (fallaciously) be called into question.

    This allows politicians to be more easily manipulated, especially if the public is similarly gulled into thinking there’s something nefarious about scientists, especially those working on climate issues.

    That reduces the risk that Steyn and his ilk and their supporters would have to part with money or change their precious lifestyles.

    Little wonder Steyn has shown such forceful malice in attacking Mann… His tactic may, unfortunately, work. He’s now trying to incorrectly frame this as a First Amendment issue, when he’s just using that as a protection to inflict this harm on Mann and his revelations about AGW.

  265. #265 Joe
    Earth
    December 25, 2015

    In the United States, the law of defamation is inextricably bound to the First Amendment.

  266. #266 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    #261 Brainstorms

    Does this apply given that Mann is not a “public official”? I read that as someone holding a political (governing) office, not an academic. Does Dan’s link make that distinction, or lump them together?

    It appears that having a public presence (media exposure etc) is enough to engage the actual malice clause.

  267. #267 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Sorry, link and:

    Later cases expanded the rule to apply to public figures. A public figure is someone who has gained a significant degree of fame or notoriety in general or in the context of a particular issue or controversy. Even though these figures have no official role in government affairs, they often hold considerable influence over decisions made by the government or by the public. Examples of public figures are numerous and could include, for instance, celebrities, prominent athletes, or advocates who involve themselves in a public debate.

  268. #268 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    One more time: MBH98/99 have 3 authors, not one, and Jones et al(1998) got very similar results, also reported in IPCC TAR, and actually, that had even less warmth circa 1000AD.
    Again, see MedievalDeception 2015: Inhofe Drags Senate Back To Dark Ages, which shows Jones et al at left, MBH99 at right, or see IPCC Tar Fig 2.20.

  269. #269 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    Stevo, you ask or an explanation regarding Steyn’s being a human rights activist and Greg Laden is subject to lawsuit under the standards of Mann law.

    Let’s take the second part first. If Steyn is a human rights activist, then it is defamation to declare that he is not. Basically you are accusing him of lying, just as Mann is suing for declaring Mann’s work fraudulent.

    Now is Steyn a human rights activist. See Russell Seitz’s post above about standing up for free speech in Canada. That is a human right, and Steyn was instrumental in having the whole anti-human rights Human Rights Commissions thrown out.
    Steyn also appeared in Denmark at the tenth anniversary of the publication of the Mohammed cartoons in Europe. THE PEOPLE HE SHARED THE STAGE WITH AT THE FIVE YEAR ANNIVERSARY WERE ALL KILLED by Islamic jihadists.

  270. #270 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    Brainstorms, by that logic every public statement made by a politician in a political campaign about his opponent is grounds for a lawsuit.

  271. #271 dean
    United States
    December 24, 2015

    Steyn is a human rights activist,

    Who started this asinine meme of him as a human rights activist?

  272. #272 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    dean: “Who started this asinine meme of him as a human rights activist?”

    On the Phil Donahue show, David Duke called himself a “human rights activist.” Maybe the same phenomena are involved with Steyn’s minions….

  273. #273 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    Why are people arguing about whether or not Mann is a (limited-purpose) public figure? See Oct 2012 complaint.

    The phrase “public figure” does not appear, but
    the phrase “actual malice” appears 10 times.

    Now, why would that be?
    Hint: Mann’s lawyers are not dumb.

  274. #274 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    Who started this asinine meme of him as a human rights activist?

    That was MikeN: #13 MikeN.

  275. #275 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    @ John Mashey

    Hint: Mann’s lawyers are not dumb.

    And TFFT because the law is problematic, isn’t it?

  276. #276 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    The law is certainly messy, especially given differences in jurisdictions.

    More Dunning-Kruger.
    Spread across numerous blogs are all sorts of discussions arguing that Mann was a public figure and therefore suit would fail, not having bothered to read the complaint and get the hint that Mann’s lawyers expected to prove actual malice from the beginning, not claiming non-(public figure).

  277. #277 Christopher Winter
    December 24, 2015

    Locus (#208): I’m sorry but Calder v. Jones was not a successful libel suit. The Supreme Court merely ruled that Jones could sue the Enquirer in California even though the reporter was based in Florida.

    You’re right, of course. I should have been more specific. As the <New York Times reported, the actual libel suit was settled for an undisclosed sum, and the Enquirer provided a five-paragraph retraction which Jones and Ingels were free to publish anywhere they wished. The Enquirer also published it.

    You may not regard that as a successful suit. I think it comes close enough.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/27/us/national-enquirer-agrees-to-settle-with-shirley-jones-in-libel-suit.html

  278. #278 Brainstorms
    December 24, 2015

    Brainstorms, by that logic every public statement made by a politician in a political campaign about his opponent is grounds for a lawsuit.

    Given the current trend in incivility among candidates, perhaps it should be!

  279. #279 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    “Given the current trend in incivility among candidates, perhaps it should be!”

    I think women who urinate are disgusting.

  280. #280 Christopher Winter
    December 24, 2015

    Locus (220): The judge added that caveat because the defendant’s perspective *is what matters* in determining actual malice.

    And if the defendant in this case (Steyn) has a long public record of denigrating Dr. Mann and his work, what are we to conclude from that?

  281. #281 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    “And if the defendant in this case (Steyn) has a long public record of denigrating Dr. Mann and his work, what are we to conclude from that?”

    She’s made outta wood!

  282. #282 BBD
    December 24, 2015

    @ John

    How can actual malice be demonstrated even by widening the scope of the evidence?

    Nutters are sincere and wrong.

  283. #283 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    ‘Tim, Phil, Keith:
    I suggest a way out of this mess. Because of the complexity of the arguments involved, to an uninformed observer it all might be viewed as just scientific nit-picking by “for” and “against” global warming proponents. However, if
    an “independent group” such as you guys at the Climatic
    Research Unit could make a statement as to whether the McIntyre and McKitrick effort is truly an “audit”, and whether they did it right, I think that would go a long way to defusing the issue.’

  284. #284 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    MikeN: “…it all might be viewed as just scientific nit-picking by “for” and “against” global warming proponents….”

    Er… ah… I think you mean “global warming opponents.” Only a very few homicidal sociopaths in the world are global warming proponents.

    “an “independent group” such as you guys at the Climatic
    Research Unit could make a statement as to whether the McIntyre and McKitrick effort is truly an “audit”, and whether they did it right, I think that would go a long way to defusing the issue.”

    Ah… um… that has been done already, a few hundred times. McIntyre (mineral extraction industry lobbyist) and McKitrick (economist) had the odd belief that adding invalid PCs is A Good Thing because when they did so, the hockey stick became flatter…. therefore they insisted MB&H should have added more PCs. McIntyre and McKitrick also ran 10,000 pseudo-random simulations, saw half-a dozen hockey sticks, ignored the rest, and then reported that MBH98 and MBH99 are random walks….

    So, why in the world would anyone need to YET ONCE AGAIN “… make a statement as to whether the McIntyre and McKitrick effort is truly an “audit”, and whether they did it right….” when no scientist, anywhere, thinks they did it right? See, for background, the phrase “Dead Horse; Flogging”

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regarding-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/

  285. #285 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    John Mashey, it is Mann’s defenders here who are using the not a public figure defense, hence the attack on that argument. No one is accusing the lawyers of doing so(I hope).

  286. #286 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 24, 2015

    MikeN: John Mashey, it is Mann’s defenders here who are using the not a public figure defense….”

    Uh, no. The pro-science defenders here have noted, a few billion times, that the issue of being a public figure is not relevant, nor is the issue mentioned in the litigation.

  287. #287 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    >>Who started this asinine meme of him as a human rights activist?

    >That was MikeN: #13 MikeN.

    BBD, perhaps you should read the main post.

  288. #288 Christopher Winter
    December 24, 2015

    James Mayeau (#247): Everyone of those pile on’s. Everyone of the double downs on tree rings. Every half baked defense, and circling of the wagons around Michael Mann, just cements the moral bankruptcy of climatology.

    So now climate science is not just scientifically bankrupt, it is morally bankrupt too? In the face of continuing changes that not only climate scientists but other scientists the world over, as well as farmers and forestry managers, mountain climbers, and military leaders recognize and report — changes like the thinning of the Greenland ice sheets, the steadily falling extent and volume of the north polar icecap, the retreats of mountain glaciers, the expansion of growing and wildfire seasons, the acceleration of sea-level rise — we are to treat their warnings of oncoming problems as some nefarious plot?

    If you answer yes, I and many others here will expect you to provide evidence.

  289. #289 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 24, 2015

    Christopher Winter “So now climate science is not just scientifically bankrupt, it is morally bankrupt too? In the face of continuing changes that not only climate scientists but other scientists the world over, as well as farmers and forestry managers, mountain climbers, and military leaders recognize and report — changes like the thinning of the Greenland ice sheets, the steadily falling extent and volume of the north polar icecap, the retreats of mountain glaciers, the expansion of growing and wildfire seasons, the acceleration of sea-level rise — we are to treat their warnings of oncoming problems as some nefarious plot?”

    Also the many species (animals and plants) moving northward; the many species migrating south later than usual, north sooner than usual; 10,000+ electronic temperature recording devices pouring data into the Weather Underground database…. all part of the “let’s be immoral!” conspiracy.

  290. #290 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    MikeN:

    “‘Tim, Phil, Keith:
    I suggest a way out of this mess. Because of the complexity of the arguments involved, to an uninformed observer it all might be viewed as just scientific nit-picking by “for” and “against” global warming proponents. However, if
    an “independent group” such as you guys at the Climatic
    Research Unit could make a statement as to whether the McIntyre and McKitrick effort is truly an “audit”, and whether they did it right, I think that would go a long way to defusing the issue.’”

    And? There’s something wrong with sticking up for science?

  291. #291 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 24, 2015

    dhogaza: “And? There’s something wrong with sticking up for science?”

    Oh, yes, very much so— on the Internet. In one of my recent YouTube videos I happened to mention the fact that Earth is not a flat, round disk: over 300 people got irate, enraged, and called me all sort of amusing names. CoolHardLogic, on YouTube, made a few videos that showed why and how we know Earth is not the center of the universe, and that upset over 1,000 YouTube users.

    Spooky times we live in….

  292. #292 dhogaza
    December 24, 2015

    Desertphile:

    He’s dragging up an excerpt from the e-mails stolen from HadCRU so long ago. Because, you know, once the e-mails were stolen, physics changed and CO2 was no longer a GHG.

  293. #293 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 24, 2015

    dhogaza: He’s dragging up an excerpt from the e-mails stolen from HadCRU so long ago. Because, you know, once the e-mails were stolen, physics changed and CO2 was no longer a GHG.

    Al, well, yes. That explains the CRU mention…. I wondered why it was brought up, since the topic is Mark Steyn. Eventually we will start reading about how Dr. Mann masterminded the Benghazi attack. When President Sanders legalizes marijuana cultivation and possession, Dr. Mann’s “_Nature_ Trick” will be blamed.

  294. #294 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    Forget Benghazi. Dr Mann almost killed off the entire human race for his own selfish reasons.

  295. #295 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 24, 2015

    Forget Benghazi. Dr Mann almost killed off the entire human race for his own selfish reasons.

    “Moonraker” sucked as a movie as well as a novel.

  296. #296 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    I wonder if Mark Steyn will call the former Met Office head to his defense?

    b. Is the PCA approach robust? Are the results statistically significant? It
    seems to me that in the case of MBH the answer in each is no. It is not clear how
    robust and significant the more recent approaches are.

  297. #297 dean
    December 24, 2015

    ™Dr Mann almost killed off the entire human race for his own selfish reasons.”

    How do people like you type when your knuckles are dragging on the ground?

  298. #298 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 24, 2015

    “Dr Mann almost killed off the entire human race for his own selfish reasons.”

    How do people like you type when your knuckles are dragging on the ground?

    Damn it, he’s on to us! Someone must have talked! Round up everyone who has certs for Operating Thetan Four and above, for sec checks!

  299. #299 SteveP
    Lame R. Smh Center for Obfuscation
    December 24, 2015

    Dear Noncomprehending Individual With The Drowning Tiger Avatar:
    Trees that depend heavily on temperature in the growing season will have narrow rings during cold periods and wider rings for warm periods. Trees that depend heavily on moisture during the growing season will have wider rings during rainy periods and narrower rings during dry periods. This has been known by scientists since the time of Da Vinci and before. And the temperature of the leaf obviously doesn’t have a fuck of a lot to do with the width of tree rings if the temperature of the leaf is fairly constant during the day during growing season. According to your reasoning, all tree rings should be the same width, and that is not the case.

    If you or an intelligent jury were to think about it, they would realize that a tree has other parts besides leaves, and as long as those other tree parts are successfully supplying important raw materials to those constant temperature leaves, and as long as they are successfully taking finished products back from them, the tree will tend to grow. The leaves are like engines with thermostats that run at a fairly constant temperature. The width of the tree ring has fuck all to do with the constant temperature of the leaf during growing season, just like the distance your car runs before it runs out of gas has nothing to do with the engine temperature if that thermostat is running properly.

    An article about leaf temperature does not invalidate dendroclimatology. Your mind appears to be rigidly made up, and you appear to be in face-saving-mode and therefore cannot publicly admit that you might be dead wrong.

  300. #300 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 25, 2015

    SteveP: “Dear Noncomprehending Individual With The Drowning Tiger Avatar:”

    I love pwnage poetry with my coffee in the morning!

  301. #301 MikeN
    December 24, 2015

    I see M and Manuela, but no Dr Mann in THAT…

  302. #302 John Mashey
    December 24, 2015

    BBD @281
    “How can actual malice be demonstrated even by widening the scope of the evidence?”

    The two reports I did in 2010 offered much evidence of a well-organized conspiracy to make Mann the focus of neverending attack, and I actually think there is already plenty of evidence of that, especially at CEI, but there’s some other history with NR as well …
    but, there are interesting questions to be asked to fill in holes, i.e., not contradictiions but questions of how information got from A to B, who attended certain meetings where discussions are on record, but not who said them, how the Wall Street Journal was enlisted, and how it got the image it falsely claimed was exactly as shown in IPCC FAR, etc, etc, etc. There are at least 2 CEI folks (Ebell and Horner) long involved in harassing Mann. There are of course interesting questions about certain politicians and their staffers.

    Anyway, the issue with discovery is that judges typically do not allow giant fishing expeditions, but having specific reasonable questions helps. … and in this case, might well drag a lot of people in as witnesses.

  303. #303 James Mayeau
    December 25, 2015

    @ # 297 It’s a tiger diving into a pool after some meat. Tigers like to swim.

    Anyhow, your description makes tree rings a pretty good rain gauge or maybe a hygrometer, but not a thermometer.

    Using tree rings to backcast the temperature is like using rectal thermometers on polar bears as a proxy of pack ice thickness.

  304. #304 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 25, 2015

    James Mayeau: Anyhow, your description makes tree rings a pretty good rain gauge or maybe a hygrometer, but not a thermometer.”

    What you mean is, you have no idea how dendroclimatology works and you have no interest in learning…. and that makes you an expert in the subject, much more so than the people who studied the subject.

  305. #305 dean
    United States
    December 25, 2015

    Using tree rings to backcast the temperature is like using rectal thermometers on polar bears as a proxy of pack ice thickness.

    Use a stupid comparison like that is like making a massive attempt to hide your lack of understanding of science.

    Oh, wait.

  306. #306 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
    December 25, 2015

    Dean: Use a stupid comparison like that is like making a massive attempt to hide your lack of understanding of science.

    Oh, wait.

    My toes were cold this morning, therefore the pizza I eat six times a day isn’t what is making me fat.

  307. #307 Rob Honeycutt
    December 25, 2015

    James @301…

    Using tree rings to backcast the temperature is like using rectal thermometers on polar bears as a proxy of pack ice thickness.

    Care to explain exactly how these are the same?

  308. #308 Narad
    December 25, 2015

    Dear Clay & Narad

    Please try to distinguish between what constitutes a case in US law (which enshrines the right to free speech) and what constitutes a robust scientific argument (which is focused best fit of hypothesis to evidence).

    They are not the same. The absurdity of trying to establish a (false) equivalence between them should be obvious, but apparently is not.

    The only thing I’ve been talking about is the legal side. How on earth you turned that into some nonsense about trying to “establish a (false) equivalence” is beyond me.

  309. #309 Pete Freans
    December 25, 2015

    @desertphile and bbd: have you read Steyn’s two compilations of contrarian climatologists?

    (Sound of crickets)

  310. #310 Desertphile
    Deport Mark Steyn!
    December 25, 2015

    Pete Freans: “@desertphile and bbd: have you read Steyn’s two compilations of contrarian climatologists?”

    I don’t consume pornography.

  311. #311 John Mashey
    December 25, 2015

    People may recall Greg Laden’s Mark Steyn’s Newest Attack On Michael Mann And The Hockey Stick.
    That one got 600 comments, with many of the same people and arguments.

    Of the 3 examples, the 2 climate scientists were quoted out of context. Sadly, although I commented many times, I forgot to add information about the third, Jonathan Jones, a physicists far removed from climate science, He often commented at Bishop HIll. Sooner or later, I will publish my detailed study of the Salby affair (held until I was sure his grad student had finished her PhD).
    Jones commented at Bishop Hill, and seems to have taken Montford’s “Hide the Decline” as Truth. He also was involved in the long discussion about “The Hockeystick Illusion” that led to the “dog astrology journal” post of mine, which he seemed to ignore.

    Since Jones is an Oxford physicist,the following might or not be relevant:
    http://arthur.shumwaysmith.com/life/content/the_arrogance_of_physicists

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_A._Jones
    http://users.ox.ac.uk/~jajones; http://nmr.physics.ox.ac.uk/
    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/2/23/the-beddington-challenge.html?currentPage=2 ; http://www.webcitation.org/6QzcwmYAx
    ‘People have asked why mainstream scientists are keeping silent on these issues. As a scientist who has largely kept silent, at least in public, I have more sympathy for silence than most people here. It’s not for the obvious reason, that speaking out leads to immediate attacks, not just from Gavin and friends, but also from some of the more excitable commentators here. Far more importantly most scientists are reluctant to speak out on topics which are not their field. We tend to trust our colleagues, perhaps unreasonably so, and are also well aware that most scientific questions are considerably more complex than outsiders think, and that it is entirely possible that we have missed some subtle but critical point.
    However, “hide the decline” is an entirely different matter. This is not a complicated technical matter on which reasonable people can disagree: it is a straightforward and blatant breach of the fundamental principles of honesty and self-criticism that lie at the heart of all true science. The significance of the divergence problem is immediately obvious, and seeking to hide it is quite simply wrong. The recent public statements by supposed leaders of UK science, declaring that hiding the decline is standard scientific practice are on a par with declarations that black is white and up is down. I don’t know who they think they are speaking for, but they certainly aren’t speaking for me.
    I have watched Judy Curry with considerable interest since she first went public on her doubts about some aspects of climate science, an area where she is far more qualified than I am to have an opinion. Her latest post has clearly kicked up a remarkable furore, but she was right to make it. The decision to hide the decline, and the dogged refusal to admit that this was an error, has endangered the credibility of the whole of climate science. If the rot is not stopped then the credibility of the whole of science will eventually come into question.
    Judy’s decision to try to call a halt to this mess before it’s too late is brave and good. So please cut her some slack; she has more than enough problems to deal with at the moment.
    If you’re wondering who I am, then you can find me at the Physics Department at Oxford University.’
    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/9/2/journal-editor-resigns.html#comments;
    http://www.webcitation.org/6QzdAi5pv
    ‘This is truly bizarre, and just shows how profoundly warped the climate science community has become. I make no judgement here on the correctness of the paper, but editors just don’t resign because of things like this. …
    Sure, my two controversies above never hit the popular press, but the arsenic stuff was discussed all over the place, far more than Spencer and Braswell.
    What sort of weird warped world to climate scientists inhabit? How have they allowed themselves to move so far from comon sense? What is wrong with these guys?’
    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/8/tamsin-edwards-versus-jonathan-jones.html#comment19911732 ; http://www.webcitation.org/6QzdJ6cs1
    ‘I did sign off on the copy after a couple of minor modifications which I requested. As I am saying on twitter I am definitely a sceptic of the “policy usefulness” of climate models, so I was happy for them to use the phrase in that context, rather than my usual “climate agnostic” self-description.’
    My bio (which they haven’t yet used) makes very clear that I am a scientist with wide ranging expertise, but no special expertise in climate science. A central part of my claim is that professional climate scientists are over confident about the quality of their work, but this is largely because all scientists are over confident about the quality of their own work. Outsiders, without the emotional commitment that working in a field inevitably brings, can take a much more objective view of things.’

  312. #312 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 25, 2015

    PF,

    Just out of curiosity, what climatologists?

  313. #313 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 25, 2015

    #306
    “Using tree rings to backcast the temperature is like using rectal thermometers on polar bears as a proxy of pack ice thickness.

    Care to explain exactly how these are the same?”

    Drowning Tiger isn’t saying that the two are the same, but that they are similar. Based on his inability to reply to BBD’s twice asked question (#226 & 250), I don’t imagine he’ll reply to yours. My suspicion is that he was so pleased with the image of a phallus-like object being inserted into a polar bear rectum, that the rest didn’t matter.

  314. #314 James Mayeau
    December 25, 2015

    No. But a global warming phony trying to take a polar bear’s temperature, that would be hilarious.

    Coming in from the bear’s blind side would be the safe approach.

    I’m thinking of your welfare.

  315. #315 SteveP
    Nova Florida
    December 25, 2015

    #301 Dear Drowning Tiger Avatar Person

    You would do well to look up to the words of wisdom of Chauncey Gardener or someone of his stature in the matter of basic botany. In the mean time, I’ve chosen J. Zimmerman for his wise thoughts on tree rings, but anyone with a good knowledge of the art will do.

    ” If spring starts early, the growing season is likely to be longer than usual, causing a tree to have a wider ring.
    ……. A late spring is likely to shorten the growing season, causing a tree to have a narrower tree ring.
    Abundant rainfall increases growth, producing a wider ring.
    Drought decreases growth, producing a narrower ring.
    ****Species of tree do differ in their response to weather changes. One might respond strongly to changes in overall rainfall, another might be more sensitive to the amount of rain during the late summer, and another to a temperature change that alters the length of the growing season.”

    The above knowledge and some linear algebra should be all you need to crack this code, ace.

    By the way, your polar bear comparison is missing an analogous temporal component to give it some added punch and humor, so it really falls flat. It is neither far enough away from dendro-climatology to be insanely humorous, nor close enough or insightful enough to be instructive. It is just kind of meh. People are waiting for your punch line, but it never comes. You really gotta work on that.

  316. #316 John Mashey
    December 26, 2015

    SteveP
    Good advice, albeit likely ignored, given the power of Dunning-Kruger.

    Of course, even better would be the study of Ray Bradley’s Paleoclimatology – Reconstructing the Climates of the Quaternary (2015), pp.453-497.

  317. #317 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 26, 2015

    #314
    Thanks. You’ve proved my point.

  318. #318 BBD
    December 26, 2015

    #307 Narad

    The only thing I’ve been talking about is the legal side. How on earth you turned that into some nonsense about trying to “establish a (false) equivalence” is beyond me.

    Looking back, it is beyond me, too. Entirely my mistake; please accept my apologies. Mr Clay, however, not so much.

  319. #319 BBD
    December 26, 2015

    # 308 Pete Freans

    @desertphile and bbd: have you read Steyn’s two compilations of contrarian climatologists?

    (Sound of crickets)

    See #234:

    Scientific studies are critiqued in the scientific literature, not self-published tosh peddled by some pig-ignorant right-wing demagogue.

    When we turn to the published literature, we find various millennial temperature reconstructions that essentially confirm – and refine – the original MBH99 results.

    This begs a serious question: why are you waving the aforementioned vanity publishing project around instead of a stack of papers showing exactly how MBH has been fundamentally invalidated?

    Why have you reappeared on this thread without the necessary evidence to support your argument?

    Where is it?

    At this point, you either provide scientific evidence or lose the argument. Don’t you even understand that yet?

  320. #320 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 26, 2015

    BBD: “Scientific studies are critiqued in the scientific literature, not self-published tosh peddled by some pig-ignorant right-wing demagogue.”

    … except in the USA, and only when it comes to climate change, guns killing people, and pregnancy.

    Regarding “desertphile and bbd: have you read Steyn’s two compilations of contrarian climatologists?” I read the free sample via Kindle. (I will only give Steyn money if a Second Amendment Freedom Device is pointed at my head.) I wrote better when I was eight years old; the text is a fine example of Creationism “science—” state the opposite of what a scientist has stated, attribute one’s statement to that scientist, then repeat 300 times.

  321. #321 Rob Honeycutt
    December 26, 2015

    James @ 314…

    No. But a global warming phony trying to take a polar bear’s temperature, that would be hilarious.

    Ah, so you have no actual substantive comment to make. Not that I’m surprised, but good to know.

  322. #322 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Mashey #224

    “Nobody had said ‘independent’.

    “The “not independent” meme originated with McIntyre and CEI/GMI, and is one of those things that makes a nice sound-bite for people who don’t know the field. “Independent” is hardly binary.”

    a) Yes, independence is binary, when we’re talking about the same exact person. We’re not talking about whether other people in the same field can be independent, we’re talking about a person somehow managing to be be considered “independent” of themselves.

    Look at it this way. If a doctor just gives the same opinion twice, is that considered a “second opinion”?

    b) Independence is a critical in examining scientific claims. But don’t take my word for it. Since you mentioned the National Academy of Sciences report on Mann’s hockey stick, let’s take a look at the definition of peer-review developed by the NAS for U.S. scientific agencies. Note how much independence is stressed.

    http://www.nap.edu/read/5939/chapter/4

    “A peer review is a documented, critical review performed by peers [defined in the USNRC report as “a person having technical expertise in the subject matter to be reviewed (or a subset of the subject matter to be reviewed) to a degree at least equivalent to that needed for the original work”] who are independent of the work being reviewed. The peer’s independence from the work being reviewed means that the peer, a) was not involved as a participant, supervisor, technical reviewer, or advisor in the work being reviewed, and b) to the extent practical, has sufficient freedom from funding considerations to assure the work is impartially reviewed.

    A peer review is an in-depth critique of assumptions, calculations, extrapolations, alternate interpretations, methodology, and acceptance criteria employed, and of conclusions drawn in the original work. Peer reviews confirm the adequacy of the work. In contrast to peer review, the term “technical review” . . . refers to a review to verify compliance to predetermined requirements; industry standards; or common scientific, engineering, and industry practice. (USNRC, 1988, p. 2)

    In this definition, the term peer review has the following characteristics:

    expert (including national/international perspectives on the issue),
    independent,
    external, and
    technical.

    Most importantly, peer reviews must be carded (sic) out by independent reviewers who are experts in the technical issues relevant to the projects under review. Such reviewers must be highly qualified and independent in order to evaluate credibly the scientific and engineering merit of…”

  323. #323 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Mashey #224

    I want to thank you for bringing up Mann’s 2008 paper, especially Mann et al’s admission that “suggestions” from the NRC report of 2006 needed to be addressed. Want to take a guess as to who was used a prominent source for some of the NRC report suggestions?

    To quote that report,

    “McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) demonstrated that under some conditions the
    leading principal component can exhibit a spurious trendlike appearance, which could
    then lead to a spurious trend in the proxy-based reconstruction. To see how this can
    happen,…”

    and,

    “This exercise demonstrates that the baseline with respect to which anomalies are
    calculated can influence principal components in unanticipated ways. Huybers (2005),
    commenting on McIntyre and McKitrick (2005a), points out that normalization also
    affects results, a point that is reinforced by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005b) in their
    response to Huybers.”

    and,

    “A second area of criticism focuses on statistical validation and robustness. McIntyre
    and McKitrick (2003, 2005a,b) question the choice and application of statistical methods, notably principal component analysis; the metric used in the validation step of the
    reconstruction exercise; and the selection of proxies, especially the bristlecone pine
    data used in some of the original temperature reconstruction studies. These and other
    criticisms, explored briefly in the remainder of this chapter, raised concerns that led to
    new research and ongoing efforts to improve how surface temperature reconstructions
    are performed.”

    and,

    “Regarding metrics used in the validation step in the reconstruction exercise, two
    issues have been raised (McIntyre and McKitrick 2003, 2005a,b). One is that the
    choice of “significance level” for the reduction of error (RE) validation statistic is not
    appropriate. The other is that different statistics, specifically the coefficient of effi-
    ciency (CE) and the squared correlation (r 2 ), should have been used (the various
    validation statistics are discussed in Chapter 9). Some of these criticisms are more
    relevant than others, but taken together, they are an important aspect of a more
    general finding of this committee, which is that uncertainties of the published recon-
    structions have been underestimated.”

    So what are we to make of this?

    1. Repeated screams from the alarmist crowd that McIntyre and McKitrick have been “demolished” or “debunked” or whatever is so much propaganda designed to confuse idiots. M&M made valid criticisms of Mann’s work and Mr. Potato-Head was forced to address his flaws by the NRC report.

    2. As skeptics have been saying for years, the peer-review system, in at least the field of paleoclimatology, is broken. It took two outsiders to do the job other climate scientists were *supposed* to do. The Climategate emails show that some climate scientists had reservations about Mann’s work but they didn’t speak up.

    http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676/surface-temperature-reconstructions-for-the-last-2000-years

    Global warming believer but Mann critic Richard Muller gives his take,

  324. #324 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    BBD #225

    This paper, so thoughtfully mentioned by DesertPhile, shows how the IPCC has had to change it’s depiction of temperature reconstructions.

    http://coast.gkss.de/staff/zorita/Frank_etal_WIRESCllmChange_2010.pdf

    This site shows how the hockey stick has been replaced by something much more reminiscent of the Lamb reconstruction from the 1990 IPCC report.

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/17/climatology-sees-one-of-the-greatest-scientific-reversals-of-all-time-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-hockey-stick-charts

    I have to strongly disagree with your second paragraph. Scientific theories need to be falsifiable. If there was no MWP we’re told it proves AGW because the climate was stable until the industrial age. If there was an MWP it also proves AGW because it shows that the climate system is unstable and prone to a catastrophe brought on by industrialization. Heads I win, tails you lose and the theory is proven right *no matter what the data eventually shows*. That’s not science. It’s junk science.

  325. #325 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Applesauce #230

    “My comment was about the plaintiff’s response to the question of what the defendant perceives. I don’t know what you thought you were reading.”

    I don’t know what I’m reading right now. What in the world is that sentence supposed to mean?

  326. #326 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Mashey #272

    1. Actual malice only applies when the plaintiff is a public figure.

    2. From the Court’s ruling of July 2013.

    “Plaintiff does not seriously challenge the assertion that he is a public figure and the Court finds that given his work and notoriety the characterization as a public figure (albeit arguably limited) is appropriate. As a public figure, Plaintiff may only succeed in a suit for libel if he can prove “actual malice” because, as a public figure, he has opened himself to criticism and differing opinions. At this stage, the evidence is slight as to whether there was actual malice.”

    http://www.williamslopatto.com/uploads/2/5/8/4/25843913/7192013cei_motion_to_dismiss_denied.pdf

  327. #327 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Mashey #275

    Nonsense. Proving actual malice is only necessary if the plaintiff is a public figure. If Mann’s lawyers thought they had to prove actual malice if Mann was not determined to be a public figure, then they are totally incompetent.

  328. #328 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Winter #276:

    Why is Calder v. Jones “close enough”? It was settled out of court and Jones didn’t have to prove actual malice. Steyn has absolutely no intention of settling. The fact that it’s not easy to find a plaintiff who succeeded in proving actual malice should serve as an indication that Mann faces a very hard row to hoe.

  329. #329 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Winter #278:

    Mark Steyn does not have long public record of denigrating Dr. Mann. If I recall correctly Steyn only mentioned Mann three times from 2000-2010. Steyn’s recent comments are a direct result of Mr. Potato-Head suing Steyn and running up his legal bills into seven figures.

  330. #330 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 26, 2015

    @ 325

    Actually it was three sentences:
    “My comment was about the plaintiff’s response to the question of what the defendant perceives. That is all. I don’t know what you thought you were reading.”

    I’m not surprised that you are unable maintain the the thread of the conversation in your head. Therefore a detailed recounting and explanation of it would not only be tedious but in your case pointless. However in the future I’ll be very careful to keep it simple for you.

  331. #331 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    DesertPhile #288:

    Complete and total nonsense. Utter rubbish. If being a public figure is “not relevant” then someone needs to tell that to the D.C. Superior Court. From the ruling of July 2013,

    “Plaintiff does not seriously challenge the assertion that he is a public figure and the Court finds that given his work and notoriety the characterization as a public figure (albeit arguably limited) is appropriate. As a public figure, Plaintiff may only succeed in a suit for libel if he can prove “actual malice” because, as a public figure, he has opened himself to criticism and differing opinions. At this stage, the evidence is slight as to whether there was actual malice.”

    http://www.williamslopatto.com/uploads/2/5/8/4/25843913/7192013cei_motion_to_dismiss_denied.pdf

  332. #332 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 26, 2015

    Locus: “Complete and total nonsense. Utter rubbish. If being a public figure is “not relevant” then someone needs to tell that to the D.C. Superior Court. From the ruling of July 2013,”

    I mean not relevant in the context given; the complaint against the defendants does not dispute public figure status— which is why the complaint did not seek protection under the personal privacy violation clauses regarding libel. The defendants wailed and moaned and bitched that their libel was de facto protected because Dr. Mann is a public figure; that defense was already dismissed before the cult filed their appeals— the issue was already stipulated by all parties involved. The cult keeps insisting the judges continue to rule on an issue they already ruled on, and did not even need to rule on in the first place: the issue was not under contention— it was utterly irrelevant to both the abusers and the plaintiff.

    In other words, the cult refuses to take “Yes” for an answer; the cult continues to seek dismissal of the tort against them by asking the judges, over and over and over again, to decide in their favor about “public figure” status. Dr. Mann already did that for them.

  333. #333 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    Applesauce #330

    Well OK then. Just make sure you keep it simple enough in the future so that *you* can actually make sense of what you write.

  334. #334 BBD
    December 26, 2015

    # 324 Locus

    Your link to Frank et al. (2010) is broken.This study does not undermine the argument that past (millennial) climate variability caused by natural variability in forcings did not result in an analogue of modern global warming forced by CO2.

    I have to strongly disagree with your second paragraph.

    I don’t think you really understand this topic. First, there was not and has never been any evidence of a global and synchronous MCA as warm as or warmer than the present. Modern global average temperatures really do appear to be exceptional in a millennial context.

    Second, arguing for a hot MCA is to argue for high climate sensitivity to radiative perturbation – which would include increased forcing from CO2. I don’t think you want to do that.

  335. #335 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 26, 2015

    BBD: I don’t think you really understand this topic. First, there was not and has never been any evidence of a global and synchronous MCA as warm as or warmer than the present. Modern global average temperatures really do appear to be exceptional in a millennial context.”

    There is an entire denialist web site created specifically to sell the notion that the MCA was global, and warmer than now— complete with many dozens of vanity-published “papers” that are formatted to appear as if they are science papers that had been published in science journals.

    That effort seems to be driven by the need to convince the denialosphere that the same mechanisms are involved now as during the MCA period. It’s a waste effort: even if the MCA was global and as warm or warmer than now, it would say nothing at all about human-caused warming.

    Second, arguing for a hot MCA is to argue for high climate sensitivity to radiative perturbation – which would include increased forcing from CO2. I don’t think you want to do that.”

    “Oh, dear, I didn’t think of that…..”

  336. #336 dean
    United States
    December 26, 2015

    Just make sure you keep it simple enough in the future so that *you* can actually make sense of what you write.

    How is your inability (or unwillingness) to understand the fault of another person?

  337. #337 BBD
    December 26, 2015

    Since the IPCC doesn’t *do* science, only summarise it, then the evolution of the presentation of millennial climate in each Report is both necessary and desirable. This is the current figure. It contains no good news for contrarians, I’m afraid.

  338. #338 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 26, 2015

    dean @ 335
    “How is your inability (or unwillingness) to understand the fault of another person?”

    Perhaps it’s related to the tendency to argue from personal incredulity, a lack of perspective taking, and the need to adopt certain tribal postures. On the other hand, I suppose it could be the result of a simple trauma, like getting hit on the head with a coconut, which might arguably make it an accessibility issue…

  339. #339 Christopher Winter
    December 26, 2015

    Locus (#328): Why is Calder v. Jones “close enough”? It was settled out of court and Jones didn’t have to prove actual malice. Steyn has absolutely no intention of settling. The fact that it’s not easy to find a plaintiff who succeeded in proving actual malice should serve as an indication that Mann faces a very hard row to hoe.

    I’m referring there to the actual lawsuit against the National Enquirer, which you earlier took care to distinguish from Calder v. Jones.

    It’s a reasonable conclusion that the Enquirer chose to settle because they estimated they would not prevail in court. That’s why I decided it was close enough to a legal victory by a celebrity in a libel suit. I have not studied the case in detail. Have you?

    I expect it might not be easy to find a successful prosecution finding actual malice. I doubt it’s impossible. I did not search; I merely mentioned the celebrity case I happened to remember. If I do search and fail to find any such success, would you think that proves Dr. Mann’s case has no chance? That would be an unwarranted conclusion.

  340. #340 Christopher Winter
    December 26, 2015

    Locus (#329): Mark Steyn does not have long public record of denigrating Dr. Mann. If I recall correctly Steyn only mentioned Mann three times from 2000-2010. Steyn’s recent comments are a direct result of Mr. Potato-Head suing Steyn and running up his legal bills into seven figures.

    Excerpts from Mark Steyn (National Review Online, 25 July 2009):


    * “If you mean the argument on “global warming,” my general line is this: For the last century, we’ve had ever-so-slight warming trends and ever-so-slight cooling trends every 30 years or so, and I don’t think either are anything worth collapsing the global economy over.”


    * “Actually, no. In public,”climate experts” rejected the notion. But in private – in fact – they well knew that “global warming has slowed or stopped”. They just weren’t prepared to say so to the gullible rubes at Media Matters, Think Progress and The Washington Post. A few months after my column appeared, Climategate broke, and among the leaked emails was this one from Dr Mann’s bestest buddy, Phil Jones, head of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit. July 5th 2005:

    The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms
    if I said the world
    had cooled from 1998. Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.

    Oh, okay then. So the only chaps lying were Jones and his fellow members of the climate alarmism industry. In private, they agreed with me.”


    * “This is the tragedy of “climate science”. Imagine if it hadn’t fallen into the hands of a cabal of insecure, neurotic, ideological enforcers like Michael E Mann.”


    * Speaking of Steve McIntyre, he has resumed his series on the multiple misrepresentations of Dr Mann’s so-called “exonerations” by official bodies. Along the way, he noticed this Tweet by one of the few scientists still willing to be associated with Mann, Gavin Schmidt, explaining why Doctor Fraudpants had no choice but to sue:

    Saying that ppl are frauds is per se defamatory. Goes beyond disagreement/error/dislike

  341. #341 Christopher Winter
    December 26, 2015

    Locus (#329): Mark Steyn does not have long public record of denigrating Dr. Mann. If I recall correctly Steyn only mentioned Mann three times from 2000-2010. Steyn’s recent comments are a direct result of Mr. Potato-Head suing Steyn and running up his legal bills into seven figures.

    Excerpts from Mark Steyn (National Review Online, 25 July 2009):


    * “If you mean the argument on “global warming,” my general line is this: For the last century, we’ve had ever-so-slight warming trends and ever-so-slight cooling trends every 30 years or so, and I don’t think either are anything worth collapsing the global economy over.”


    * “Actually, no. In public,”climate experts” rejected the notion. But in private – in fact – they well knew that “global warming has slowed or stopped”. They just weren’t prepared to say so to the gullible rubes at Media Matters, Think Progress and The Washington Post. A few months after my column appeared, Climategate broke, and among the leaked emails was this one from Dr Mann’s bestest buddy, Phil Jones, head of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit. July 5th 2005:

    The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.

    Oh, okay then. So the only chaps lying were Jones and his fellow members of the climate alarmism industry. In private, they agreed with me.”


    * “This is the tragedy of “climate science”. Imagine if it hadn’t fallen into the hands of a cabal of insecure, neurotic, ideological enforcers like Michael E Mann.”


    * Speaking of Steve McIntyre, he has resumed his series on the multiple misrepresentations of Dr Mann’s so-called “exonerations” by official bodies. Along the way, he noticed this Tweet by one of the few scientists still willing to be associated with Mann, Gavin Schmidt, explaining why Doctor Fraudpants had no choice but to sue:

    Saying that ppl are frauds is per se defamatory. Goes beyond disagreement/error/dislike

    Steyn uses this quote from Gavin Schmidt to allege that Dr. Mann should be sued since he too has called people frauds. I didn’t bother to verify that. Steyn forgets the possibility that Dr. Mann might be right about that.

    You are correct that Steyn has ramped up his stream of allegations against Dr. Mann since the lawsuit was filed. How is that not a pattern? He has also lambasted a judge in the case and at least one of the opposing lawyers — after which his own lawyers withdrew.

  342. #342 Desertphile
    December 26, 2015

    Excerpts from Mark Steyn (National Review Online, 25 July 2009):

    “If you mean the argument on ‘global warming,’ my general line is this: For the last century, we’ve had ever-so-slight warming trends and ever-so-slight cooling trends every 30 years or so, and I don’t think either are anything worth collapsing the global economy over.”

    Oh, well, okay then. Hey, everyone: cancel the plans to collapse the global economy!

    Oy vey! (As my Irish mother used to say.) I wonder if Steyn ever wonders why sane people only laugh at him.

  343. #343 dean
    United States
    December 26, 2015

    Hey, everyone: cancel the plans to collapse the global economy!

    (Reads that. Scuffs foot in dirt while thrusting hands into jeans’ pockets. Looks up with a longing expression…)

    “Can we keep on extolling the benefit of scientific knowledge and shoving it out to the public, explaining what it says about climate change and the danger of not addressing it, thereby pissing off all the no-nothings on the far right of the United States’ political spectrum?”

  344. #344 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 26, 2015

    Desertphile, if I read you post about public figures correctly, you completely misrepresent the reality of the situation. The court has determined Mann is public figure. But your post seems to suggest that the Court has already ruled that Court has ruled in Mann’s favor, despite being a public figure. The court has done no such thing.

    I know, I know, you will point to the prior ruling in which the Court ruled a jury “could” conclude Steyn libeled Mann, and that, if Mann’ proves his allegations, it is very likely he will succeed. As has been explained over, and over, that is a far cry from the court ruling Mann has a case (if the court did do something, the case would be over before a trial, before discovery was completed, etc). As has also been explained, many times, when courts entertain motions before discovery is completed, they have to view the evidence in a light most favorable to the non-moving party. Thus, defendants seek dismissal; the court has to view the case in from the vantage point that Mann will prove Steyn made false statements, which he knew were false, for the solely malicious reasons. The jury (you know, those people who actually determine the merits of the case) will make their decision based on the evidence…

    BBD, in another column on this blog, I posted a law review article by a law professor at UCal Berkley who is a free speech expert. He summed this case up best, when he said (paraphrasing): you can say anything you want about a public figure if you are dumb enough to believe it….

    Thus, if Steyn honestly and reasonably believes Mann is full of bunk, he is good to go. Also, don’t pay attention to the “investigations that exonerated Mann.” Assuming that is true, people are free to disregard the finding of investigations if they believe bias, incompetence, etc., existed. A perfect example is the OJ murder trial in the 90’s. After that trial, millions of people called OJ a murderer despite being found not-guilty. Imagine the libel settlements he would have had, if Mann’s (and his fellow Mann-boy lovers on this website) had their way

  345. #345 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 26, 2015

    Dan: “Desertphile, if I read you post about public figures correctly, you completely misrepresent the reality of the situation….”

    Your history has clearly demonstrated you have a reading comprehension disability. Many people have mentioned this to you. Perhaps it is time you consulted a professional about the problem.

  346. #346 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 26, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt Posts #178 and #188: I have never said it is impossible to bring a libel/defamation suit in the United States. What I have said is that is very difficult and nearly impossible to bring a libel/defamation suit if you are a public person. The standard is much easier for private individuals. Mann, as we know, is a public person in the eyes of the court.

    You advise other posters not to “take Dan’s word” about this issue. I have never asked anyone to take my word; I would love everyone here to take the word of experts in this field.

    I am not a first amendment lawyer (I handled a few minor defamation cases in the corporate context years ago, when I was clerking in law school). If you want to say I am just some schmo corporate litigator whose practice focuses on transportation litigation, fine. I have never held myself out as anything else.

    What I do suggest people do is take the word of constitutional scholars. As I linked to in the other column, Dan Farber is a constitutional scholar (perhaps the country’s foremost), and a professor and one of the country’s top law schools. He also happens to support Mann’s findings on climate change. Yet, he realizes Mann has a very difficult, if not impossible case. As I have quoted before “you can say almost anything you want about a public figure if you are dumb enough to believe it…” Don’t take my word for it. Take Professor Garber’s (among many others)
    http://legal-planet.org/2013/09/16/lies-damned-lies-and-climate-denial/

  347. #347 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 26, 2015

    Also, another poster (maybe Rob Honeycutt) states that he “is sure” there have been celebrities who have filed a successful libel case. If so, name them. And, by successful, I don’t mean a settlement or retraction, because parties often do that to avoid the cost of litigation.

    What I mean is a case in which a jury found someone libel for defaming a public person. Also, state standard the plaintiff was held to (i.e., actual malice), and when the case was resolved (i.e., before or after NY Times v. Sullivan, Falwell v. Flynt).

    Look, this isn’t an emotional issue with me. If, according to our laws, Steyn defamed Mann, I would be the first to say so. I might say I disagree with the law, but I would acknowledge what the law is according to the legal scholars (way more then 97%, btw) and experts in 1st amendment law.

    It is ok that Mann has an impossible case, guys, really. It doesn’t mean his science is wrong (or right, for that matter). It just means he needs a little thicker skin when a jazz vocalist/theater reviewer/substitute radio host is a big meanie to him and calls him names…

  348. #348 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 26, 2015

    One more point: if you read Professor Garber’s article, he specifically disproves the statements of various non-lawyers on this site that have said, repeatedly, that (paraphrasing)”the court has already ruled that Mann has a case. Twice!).

    No, as the good professor states (and which I have stated numerous times), the court has ruled Mann is entitled to conduct discovery regarding Steyn’s state of mind (i.e, is he being honest when he says he truly believes Mann’s hockey stick is based on manipulated data and is fraudulent). That. Is. All. The. Court’s. Prior. Ruling. Stands. For.

    Professor Garber then rightly notes that, because Mann has no direct evidence regarding Steyn’s state of mind, his job is difficult indeed.

    BBD, regardless of where you stand on climate change, when it comes to Mann v. Steyn, listen to the legal experts who state, over and over, Mann’s case is nearly impossible.

  349. #349 SteveP
    Dark Side of Terra
    December 26, 2015

    Mark Steyn is a large bore conservative cheer leader , and he and his overloud voice make a great spewer for the basic conservative memes of “resist change” and “endorse inequality”. Ted Cruz undoubtedly loves Steyn’s authoritarian pronouncements, delivered with a trained voice and a conviction born of ideology and ignorance. ( Ted’s voice, by
    comparison, sounds like he stuck pencil erasers up his nose to weaponize it in grammar school, and he never bothered to fish them out again.) Conservatives are resistant to any change in the economic, physical, and political power structure that rests on the bedrock of fossil fuel extraction , and they are endorsers of the hierarchy of inequality upon which the whole system of extraction has evolved . They desire stability and certainty, and here we are telling them that things that they depend upon, such as dry land, potable water, and agricultural infrastructure, are all in the beginning stages of being eroded away by Nature and her merry band of long wave photon pranksters. Cons like to bask in their god given racial and moral “superiority”, which they use as the justification for their elevated position in life’s hierarchy , and here we are telling them that , no, you aren’t superior, and, in fact you are pretty God damned pin-headedly stupid.

    I certainly hope that Dr. Mann gets some satisfaction from Steyn , the National Review, and CEI . Just getting them to ratchet back their level of misleading hysterical bombast a notch would be a great accomplishment, at least until climate change itself sweeps the stage out from under them.

  350. #350 Brainstorms
    December 26, 2015

    SteveP, WELL PUT.

    Nature will sweep them all up and put them in their place.

    Unfortunately, the rest of us with our heads screwed on straight and our hearts in the right place will become “bycatch”.

  351. #351 Narad
    December 26, 2015

    Looking back, it is beyond me, too. Entirely my mistake; please accept my apologies.

    Done, thanks.

  352. #352 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    BBD #334

    I never claimed that that the Zorita paper had anything to say about natural forcings. I thought what I said was pretty clear,

    “This paper, so thoughtfully mentioned by DesertPhile, shows how the IPCC has had to change it’s depiction of temperature reconstructions.”

    I’m sorry but this new story that the reappearance of the MWP supports global warming is so much hogwash.

    For years the global warming crowd argued that it was the flatness of the HS shaft that provided the best evidence for their position. Don’t take my word for it. Here’s a letter undersigned by the entire hockey team.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003EO270003/pdf

    But when the MWP started to rise once again in the climate reconstructions, the warmists changed their story. Why now the MWP was evidence of an unstable climate and therefore just more proof of global warming! Heads I win, tails you lose.

    When a theory is supposedly supported no matter what the data or evidence show, then that theory is not science.

    It’s junk science.

    The MWP doesn’t have to be as warm or warmer than the current temperature for it to be significant. Many of the major skeptics like Lindzen and Curry say that of course we’re affecting the climate. The real question is by *how much*. So how much of recent warming is caused by man-made CO2 and how much by the natural rebound from the Little Ice Age?

  353. #353 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    BBD #336

    And where is the uncertainty statement / error bars? I was taught in my laboratory classes to never accept data without a statement or depiction of the uncertainty in the measurement.

  354. #354 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #335, #337 Dean and Applesauce

    Lots of insults; nothing even close to an argument. And of course you two geniuses still haven’t tried to explain what the following sentence was *supposed* to mean.

    “My comment was about the plaintiff’s response to the question of what the defendant perceives”

  355. #355 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #338 Winter:

    If the case looked so grim for the Enquirer then why would *Jones* settle?

    I’ve already made my statement in #208. So I really don’t care what you can or cannot find.

    “Yes, there have been *some* successful defamation cases brought by public figures.”

  356. #356 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #339 Winter:

    I have no idea of what these series of quotes are supposed to mean. All except the first paragraph are from 2014. Only the first paragraph is from before the lawsuit but it doesn’t say anything about Mr. Potato-Head and his hockey stick.

    So what’s your point?

  357. #357 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #340 DesertPhile:

    I’m sorry but this new story that the reappearance of the MWP supports global warming is so much hogwash.

    For years the global warming crowd argued that it was the flatness of the HS shaft that provided the best evidence for their position. Don’t take my word for it. Here’s a letter undersigned by the entire hockey team.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003EO270003/pdf

    But when the MWP started to rise once again in the climate reconstructions, the warmists changed their story. Why now the MWP was evidence of an unstable climate and therefore just more proof of global warming! Heads I win, tails you lose.

    When a theory is supposedly supported no matter what the data or evidence show, then that theory is not science.

    It’s junk science.

  358. #358 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #333 DesertPhile:

    This is the most bizarre story I’ve ever heard.

    Please provide some scrap, some shred of evidence that anything you’ve just said has any passing resemblence to reality.

  359. #359 elspi
    December 26, 2015

    Let me help you all out here:
    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=libel+per+se

    So yes, Mann will be winning this.

  360. #360 Locus
    Earth
    December 26, 2015

    #359 elspi:

    I wouldn’t share your confidence.

    St Amant went on television and accused Deputy Sheriff Thompson of criminal conduct. A charge later shown to be false. St Amant had based his accusation on the uncorroborated testimony of a single witness.

    Thompson eventually lost his libel case in the Supreme Court.

    From the majority opinion,

    “These cases are clear that reckless conduct is not measured by whether a reasonably prudent man would have published, or would have investigated before publishing. There must be sufficient evidence to permit the conclusion that the defendant in fact entertained serious doubts as to the truth of his publication.”

  361. #361 dhogaza
    December 26, 2015

    Locust:

    “For years the global warming crowd argued that it was the flatness of the HS shaft”

    MBH 98 showed a MWP, less pronounced than Lamb, but still there.

    Now, the scientific question for you is …

    Why do you believe that Lamb’s reconstruction of central england temps (a fraction of the earth’s surface) was a global reconstruction? He himself made it clear it was not …

    On second thought, don’t bother answering. It’s clear that you have no understanding of the underlying science. Blech.

  362. #362 Jim Spriggs
    December 27, 2015

    Dan #344 says:
    A perfect example is the OJ murder trial in the 90’s. After that trial, millions of people called OJ a murderer despite being found not-guilty. Imagine the libel settlements he would have had, if Mann’s (and his fellow Mann-boy lovers on this website) had their way

    I think the Simpson murder trial is far from a perfect example. Imagine the discovery process. It would be totally killer (pun intended). I think O.J. would file ONE case, that would be that, and then he would go back to Par 3 to look for who really did it.

  363. #363 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 27, 2015

    #352

    “The MWP doesn’t have to be as warm or warmer than the current temperature for it to be significant. Many of the major skeptics like Lindzen and Curry say that of course we’re affecting the climate. The real question is by *how much*. So how much of recent warming is caused by man-made CO2 and how much by the natural rebound from the Little Ice Age?”

    First, a few words about my scientific qualifications: I have never completed a course in chemistry, never taken a course in physics, and my mathematical understanding is at the level of a 12 year old. Despite that, I’m familiar with conclusions Curry drew from the “stadium wave” paper regarding the persistency of “the pause”, which since have been shown to be utter nonsense. I’m also familiar with instances of Curry’s testimony, in which she contradicted her own research and distorted facts. I’m also aware that she at times has thrown her support behind any gibberish that argued in favor of a wait and see response to climate change.

    I’m somewhat familiar with Lindzen’s “iris theory” and the response it has elicited. I’ve read the reviews of the rejected Lindzen/Choi paper “On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications.” A short quote from the first review: “The paper is based on three basic untested and fundamentally flawed assumptions about global climate sensitivity…”

    I thank you for providing us with your best examples of “major skeptics.”

    The rest of your statement has more in common with ideologically informed magic than with science. Sorry, but the amount of “ recent warming … caused by man-made CO2” has been looked into and is well established. The phrase “natural rebound from the Little Ice Age” has the evidential precision of an incantation.

  364. #364 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #357 says:
    But when the MWP started to rise once again in the climate reconstructions, the warmists changed their story. Why now the MWP was evidence of an unstable climate and therefore just more proof of global warming! Heads I win, tails you lose.

    I’m beginning to get the impression you just like to bitch about everything that’s not straight-line linear. Nothing makes you happy about climate science. Maybe you should just stick to the solid, sound, and perfectly predictable safety of the maths.

  365. #365 Jim Spriggs
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #218 says:
    I’d like to draw attention to the phrase,
    “… indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. ce 900–1100) and the latter half of the 20th century.”
    So this confirms Michael Mann’s hockey stick how?

    It becomes yet another hockey stick because an adjustment was made to eliminate an earlier bias. This article may help you out:
    Yamal and Polar Urals: a research update
    — group @ 3 June 2013
    Guest commentary from Tim Osborn, Tom Melvin and Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, UEA

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/06/yamal-and-polar-urals-a-research-update/

    To me, you’re doing way too much nit-picking and over-thinking. Numerous studies have replicated the hockey stick using different methods and proxies. Maybe you can pick out a couple of studies/articles out of Milks’ list to nit-pick, but you’re pissing in an ever-warming wind. Whatever, it’s your life.

  366. #366 John Mashey
    December 27, 2015

    361 dhogoza
    A minor quibble:
    In modern parlance, Lamb’s curve would not rise to the level of being called a reconstruction.
    The first part was uncalibrated estimate, a sketch.
    The second part was Manley’s CET record, OK, but not global either.
    As usual, see MedievalDeception 2015: Inhofe Drags Senate Back To Dark Ages

    But why bother arguing with someone who rejects Consrvation of Energy, ie believes in fantasy that there was a “natural rebound” from LIA?
    (Origins of false memes can be hard to track, but i think this one most likely came from Lindzen’s section of The Greening if Planet Earth(1992), ie Western Fuels Association. This is implied by the “climate has always varied by itself” meme.

  367. #367 SteveP
    Fogbound Cove
    December 27, 2015

    Dear Particular Position, Point, or Place, aka Locus, aka Locust:

    You have such enthusiasm for your position! I imagine that if fingers had saliva glands, your keyboard would be covered in spittle by now! Outstanding! Post after post after post! I applaud your persistence! Good show!

    Now for the bad news. Working up all that steam over a lawsuit involving one popularized depiction of global warming is not going to stop the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere from continuing to increase. Attacking all those wrong people on the internets is not going to prevent carbon dioxide molecules from re-directing infrared radiation to the Earth’s surface and warming it every single nano-second of the day (and night!). Whether or not Dr. Mann succeeds in convincing a jury to side with him in his suit against Steyn and his “co-conspirators” is not going to have much effect on our overall terrestrial situation one way or the other, is it now. The army of powerful and vocal obfuscators who are shoveling shit against the tsunami of reality are really doomed but we all can’t help but watch. This story matters to the litigants, and apparently it matters to you, based on the testosterone that you have invested in this fight. But really, this is just a trivial but highly entertaining side show to the main event. And remember, even chess contestants suffer a loss of testosterone when they lose a match.

    BTW, was this the 5-minute argument or the quarter hour argument?

  368. #368 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Dan @ 345, 346…

    There are a wide range of interesting elements to the Mann v Steyn et al case. I actually have no specific opinion over whether Mann can prevail or not. The more interesting aspects don’t relate to that at all.

    1) Mann is only a minor public figure at best, and the aspects for which he’s made public are primarily related to the very same sort of attacks on his research that Steyn is promoting. The hockey stick graph is hardly controversial work. MBH98/99 (from which the hockey stick comes) was interesting mostly in that it was first large attempt to doing a millennial temperature reconstruction. But since then there have been about two dozen others that are far more comprehensive, and still show that MBH98/99 were correct in their conclusions.

    2) It seems to me that Steyn is very clearly attacking Mann on political grounds, which is bizarre, but I think accurate. He does not want to acknowledge climate change is real, based on his political ideology. Thus, I think he feels justified to say virtually anything he likes based on free speech, and do so in the most ugly, nasty manner possible, since that’s what gets you in the media. Thus, the two side are arguing their positions from completely different standpoints. Steyn is arguing his right to say anything he likes politically, and Mann is arguing his right to not be libeled as a researcher.

    3) All of the above is all just the dog and pony show. The more interesting elements are going to come from the discovery phase related to CEI, and less so from NR. (I think there is a battle going on between the defendants which is not unlike the battle going on between the GOP establishment and anti-establishment elements like Trump and Cruz.) I believe CEI and NR likely do NOT want this case to proceed, but Steyn does. So, Steyn is dragging them into the case unwillingly.

    Ultimately, Steyn doesn’t matter.

  369. #369 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    # 352 Locus

    I never claimed that that the Zorita paper had anything to say about natural forcings.

    I suggest you try reading it, then. Or perhaps once again, you simply don’t appreciate the implications of your own arguments.

    While you are in scholar mode, re-read MBH99 too. Note that the warmest period in the reconstruction prior to ~1900CE was 1000 – ~1200CE. That would be the MCA.

    As I have now said twice already subsequent work has refined the MBH99 result but not overturned it. Since MBH99 was a groundbreaking piece of research, it is unreasonable to expect it to be the last word on the subject of millennial climate reconstructions. This being the case, you would expect the IPCC summaries of research to reflect – accurately – the improvements in millennial climate reconstructions in the years since MBH99. Your arguments are specious.

    From the link you posted (emphasis added):

    Healthy debate with regard to the details of past climate change exists within the peer-reviewed scientific climate literature […] and it remains a challenge to reduce uncertainties and properly synthesise global means. Nevertheless, the conclusion that late-20th century hemispheric-scale warmth is anomalous in a long-term (at least millennial) context, and that anthropogenic factors likely play an important role in explaining the anomalous recent warmth is a robust consensus view.

    Which is exactly what I have been saying all along. If you are going to reference a source, it’s a good idea to read it first and check that it doesn’t directly contradict your position. A note demolishing the methodology and conclusions of two studies by the now-infamous Willie Soon is not an ideal choice.

    When a theory is supposedly supported no matter what the data or evidence show, then that theory is not science.

    It’s junk science.

    This was a strawman last time you said it.

    The MWP doesn’t have to be as warm or warmer than the current temperature for it to be significant.

    But I thought you wanted a hot MCA? As hot as the present or even hotter so you could wave away modern warming by claiming a false equivalence between the MCA and modern warming. Which of course would be a logical fallacy.

    Now you’ve dimly perceived the sensitivity implications of a hot MCA, you are backing away sharply in the direction of the established scientific view, which is actually quite amusing.

    So how much of recent warming is caused by man-made CO2 and how much by the natural rebound from the Little Ice Age?

    There is no ‘rebound’ from the LIA, which was over by ~1850 anyway. Climate isn’t a bouncing ball. Climate changes in response to net forcing change, and as a consequence, *all* modern warming is anthropogenic. There has been no other natural forcing increase sufficient to drive modern warming, (much of which has been offset by anthropogenic aerosols). It is very clear indeed now that you have no grasp of the basics of physical climatology, so why are you posturing around in comments here as if you knew more than the experts?

    And where is the uncertainty statement / error bars?

    In the original papers in which the reconstructions were presented. I have already pointed out that the IPCC doesn’t conduct original research; it only summarises it.

  370. #370 Michael Wells
    December 27, 2015

    I wish I could entirely agree that “Steyn doesn’t matter,” but unfortunately a relatively small number of people like him have managed to stall vital action on climate for decades, and they may have irretrievably screwed us already. If they haven’t, they will soon.

    It’s clear that Mann is ethically in the right here – in the sense that he’s an honorable person impugned by a toxic liar and ignoramus. I’m less certain about his legal chances, or about the tactical wisdom of pursuing this suit – as we can see in this thread, it provides plenty of ammunition for deniers squealing about “warmists” trying to squelch “the debate.” But that’s easy for me to say from the comfort of my relative anonymity.

    The ongoing obsession with Mann on the part of the deniers is extraordinary. It points up the political nature of their crusade – they’re trying to defeat individual leaders, or people they view as such, via PR tactics, thinking this will help bring the whole edifice down. But they could send a terminator back in time to prevent Mann’s birth and it wouldn’t change the science of climate change one bit – the data are what they are. The recent history of the science would be slightly different, but we’d be in the same place we are.

    In that sense, Mann doesn’t matter.

  371. #371 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Michael @ 367…

    I think, ultimately, Steyn doesn’t matter relative to this specific court case.

    It will also be interesting how this plays out relative to the “reckless disregard for the truth” which Steyn is clearly guilty of.

  372. #372 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 27, 2015

    MW @ 367

    I’m less certain about his legal chances, or about the tactical wisdom of pursuing this suit – as we can see in this thread, it provides plenty of ammunition for deniers squealing about “warmists” trying to squelch “the debate.”

    Yes, however keep in mind that a portion of the toxic environment for climate scientists in general is bullying –up to and including death threats (so far). Rolling over only encourages them.

    Some of what you’re now hearing from denialists is increased noise aimed at maintaining their position. Some is the confused squealings of stuck pigs. If Mann and, more importantly, his lawyers think they’ve found a legitimate opening through which they can push back, I say more power to ’em.

  373. #373 dean
    United States
    December 27, 2015

    The ongoing obsession with Mann on the part of the deniers is extraordinary. It points up the political nature of their crusade – they’re trying to defeat individual leaders, or people they view as such, via PR tactics, thinking this will help bring the whole edifice down.

    Exactly. They seem to be realizing that the “research” done by the people on their side is substance-free, convincing to nobody except their own. The smear campaigns – like the ones Steyn is running – aren’t based on any real science, but on the old Reagan philosophy that “if you repeat a lie often enough a large number of people will believe it”.
    It seems to have worked on several of the folks who post here.

  374. #374 Michael Wells
    December 27, 2015

    Rob @ #368 – Ah, that probably would have been clearer if I’d read more carefully. Perhaps you’re right, though the legal details are too arcane for me to come to any definite conclusions about any of those aspects. If something like “reckless disregard for truth or falsity” is the standard, it seems to me Steyn ought to lose, but that’s just an educated guess. I know the bar is high for a public figure to prevail in a libel suit, which is as it should be, even if it gives the occasional regrettable result.

    ObApp @ #369: Good point. If Mann wins and the plaintiffs have to fork out, it might make denier propagandists a little less eager to engage in the most underhanded of tactics. Or maybe that’s wishful thinking.

  375. #375 Michael Wells
    December 27, 2015

    *”the defendants have to fork out,” I meant, of course.

  376. #376 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    If Mann wins and the plaintiffs have to fork out, it might make denier propagandists a little less eager to engage in the most underhanded of tactics. Or maybe that’s wishful thinking.

    Yah, I doubt it. Even if Mann is successful, it’s a substantial outlay of cash to pursue such an action, and I don’t offhand have a guess whether the actual damages would offset his costs, assuming he could even recover them (Steyn strikes me as the most vulnerable of the defendants).

  377. #377 Desertphile
    December 27, 2015

    Narad: {…} I don’t offhand have a guess whether the actual damages would offset his costs, assuming he could even recover them (Steyn strikes me as the most vulnerable of the defendants).

    I am not sure, but I think Dr. Mann only asked for legal expenses to be paid by the defendants.

    “Actual damages” are legal expenses, and include non-monetary awards— such as the defendants being required to apologize as well as being ordered where and when to apologize.

    The judge is allowed to award “assumed damages” (which apply to libel) if Dr. Mann asked the judge to do so. The judge will base the monetary award on past cases that are similar, and what was awarded in those cases. Since defamation has already been judged as per se instead of per quod, the judge might grant assumed damages even if Dr. Mann does not ask for them.

    Punitive damages must also be requested by Dr. Mann, with the goal of correcting the defendants’ abusive behavior in the future.

    After a judge awards damages, and sets a time frame when they must be paid, it is extremely difficult to force defendants to pay. It can take many decades of constant effort on the part of the plaintiff. Defendants need merely ignore all demands for payment. The USA legal system has ways and means to force payment, but defendants can delay, ignore, and evade until long after Dr. Mann is dead.

  378. #378 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 27, 2015

    Is it possible that the HS (and climate science) could win even if Mann loses? Could the court find that the HS is valid science, while finding that Mann’s suit doesn’t meet the particular proof requirements? And what would the implications be? Considering the publicity that the case has received, wouldn’t such a result make future HS based slanders and libels against Mann less likely? Wouldn’t it offer other climate scientists some degree of protection?

    In any case, the biggest victim of of climate denialism will be life on Earth as we know it. And there seem to be no laws that can hold the denialists accountable for that.

  379. #379 Desertphile
    December 27, 2015

    cosmicomics: {…} Could the court find that the HS is valid science…”

    Gosh, I sure hope not! USA courts, and specifically tort litigation cases, should not be allowed to state what is and is not “valid science.” Courts are allowed to state that religion is not science (Creationism), but the last thing humanity needs is to have courts state what science is.

    The world’s scientists have already judged “the” Hockey Stick and found it valid.

  380. #380 John Mashey
    December 27, 2015

    Rob #365
    Yes, discovery. WAY more important than Steyn’s antics.

  381. #381 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #361 dhogaza:

    1) “MBH 98 showed a MWP, less pronounced than Lamb, but still there.”

    I’m sorry but MBH98 only went back as far as 1400. It didn’t cover the time period in question. You’re thinking of MBH99 which extended the reconstruction back to 1000.

    Here’s the link,

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL900070/epdf

    Forgive me but I really can’t see anything like an MWP in figure 3 of MBH99.

    2) “Why do you believe that Lamb’s reconstruction of central england temps (a fraction of the earth’s surface) was a global reconstruction?”

    I never claimed that the Lamb reconstruction was global. The Zorita paper I linked didn’t claim the Lamb reconstruction was global. The notrickzone analysis I linked didn’t claim that the Lamb reconstruction was global.

    All that was said was that the Lamb reconstruction *was the first* reconstruction presented in an IPCC report. And notrickzone said that the latest IPCC reconstructions look much more like the admittedly limited Lamb chart than the graph presented in MBH99.

  382. #382 elspi
    December 27, 2015

    libel per se
    n. broadcast or written publication of a false statement about another which accuses him/her of a crime, immoral acts, inability to perform his/her profession, having a loathsome disease (like syphilis), or dishonesty in business. Such claims are considered so obviously harmful that malice need not be proved to obtain a judgment for “general damages,” and not just specific losses.

    So there is no need to prove malice. All he has Mann has to do is show that the accusation is false.

  383. #383 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #362 cosmicomics:

    You’re employing the False Dilemma fallacy.

    Even *if* Curry’s Stadium Wave or Lindzen’s Iris theory fail, it doesn’t mean that anyone else’s explanation for the pause *must* be correct.

    Case in point one of the leading AGW theories for the pause was that the “missing heat” all went into the oceans.

    http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

    Except that theory took a major hit last year.

    “The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.”

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/06oct_abyss/

    So are you now going to heap disdain on all the major AGW proponents of the “missing heat” theory?

  384. #384 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #361 Mashey:

    Fair enough. Take out my use of the word “natural” in “natural rebound” and the question still remains. How much of recent warming is man-made and how much is natural?

    We can all concede that the warming into the MWP and the cooling out of the MWP were natural can we not?

  385. #385 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 27, 2015

    #376
    A valid objection. But wouldn’t discovery necessarily entail a look at the science, and wouldn’t that look normally be determined by the evaluation of other scientists?

  386. #386 Desertphile
    December 27, 2015

    cosmicomics: A valid objection. But wouldn’t discovery necessarily entail a look at the science, and wouldn’t that look normally be determined by the evaluation of other scientists?”

    Funny thing about discovery: USA lawyers overwhelmingly agree that plaintiffs must never be subjected to any kind of discovery. CEI, NR, and Steyn are pretending that discovery will show Steyn’s assertion is true; it is therefore a positive defense, which defense lawyers hate.

    A fine example of defendants attacking science is the Dover Area Board of Education case, which attempted to demonstrate to a judge that Creationism is science, and evolutionary theory is religion. The lawyers for the defendants were Fundamentalist Christians who are in business to violate the First Amendment to the United States Constitution: they allowed the attack against science and scientists, when no secular lawyers would have allowed such a thing.

    Discovery applied to Dr. Mann makes no legal sense at all. There is no evidence he can produce that shows Steyn’s statement is true.

    The only thing discovery in this case is designed to show is who actually wrote the false statement in question, and who allowed the falsehood to be published. In other words, discovery is designed to identify the defendants without ambiguity.

  387. #387 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #364 SteveP

    And the dark reality that the Mann lawsuit might not be such a cakewalk begins to penetrate the warmist hive-mind.

    Before the warmists were salivating that a large judgment in Mann’s favor would scare the “deniers” into silence and prevent those dastardly villains from confusing the public.

    But now that the warmists have finally started to get a handle on just how difficult it will be for Mann to prove actual malice, suddenly the case is no big deal.

  388. #388 Christopher Winter
    December 27, 2015

    Dan (#346): Also, another poster (maybe Rob Honeycutt) states that he “is sure” there have been celebrities who have filed a successful libel case. If so, name them. And, by successful, I don’t mean a settlement or retraction, because parties often do that to avoid the cost of litigation.

    What I mean is a case in which a jury found someone libel for defaming a public person. Also, state standard the plaintiff was held to (i.e., actual malice), and when the case was resolved (i.e., before or after NY Times v. Sullivan, Falwell v. Flynt).

    That was me. I did some searching and found some examples that meet your criteria. I’ll discuss them in two comments.

    The first examples are from here:
    http://www.insidecounsel.com/2014/11/18/6-most-successful-celebrity-libel-and-slander-case
    6 most successful celebrity libel and slander cases
    Amanda Ciccatelli, 18 November 2014

    It’s a very sketchy article (and misleading in that of the 6 lawsuits listed, one was thrown out for being unable to show malice.) However, check out the last one, Jesse Ventura v. Chris Kyle (2012) in which Ventura was awarded $1.8 million.

  389. #389 Christopher Winter
    December 27, 2015

    Dan (#346): Also, another poster (maybe Rob Honeycutt) states that he “is sure” there have been celebrities who have filed a successful libel case. If so, name them. And, by successful, I don’t mean a settlement or retraction, because parties often do that to avoid the cost of litigation.

    What I mean is a case in which a jury found someone libel for defaming a public person. Also, state standard the plaintiff was held to (i.e., actual malice), and when the case was resolved (i.e., before or after NY Times v. Sullivan, Falwell v. Flynt).

    The other victory is a little older:
    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/jury-awards-13-million-texas-defamation-suit-anonymous/story?id=16194071

    Texas couple accused of sexual assault, defamed online by anonymous posters. Acquitted January 2009, sued and won $13.8 million. Arguably they were public figures, for much the same reason that Michael Mann is a public figure.

  390. #390 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    #300 and #375 John Mashey

    Rob #365
    Yes, discovery. WAY more important than Steyn’s antics.

    Thanks for clarifying this for me John. It’s a subtlety (?) readily overlooked when reading up on the difficulties of demonstrating actual malice. The penny has now dropped :-)

  391. #391 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Locus @377…

    And notrickzone said that the latest IPCC reconstructions look much more like the admittedly limited Lamb chart than the graph presented in MBH99.

    That would be a completely insane conclusion regardless of where you find it stated.

    First off, The HH Lamb schematic was NOT a reconstruction by any stretch of the imagination! It didn’t even have a scale on the Y-axis!

    Second, if you look closely through the various millennial reconstructions presented in subsequent IPCC reports, MBH98/99 is INCLUDED in the groups of reconstructions. You can’t even pick it out amongst the group. And the most recently presented group of reconstructions is fully consistent with MBH98/99.

    Here’s where people get all twisted in their shorts, Locus. Most people don’t realize that MBH98 only went back 600 years. And MBH99 just added a couple of hundred years onto that. At that time they were looking for proxies that we back BEFORE the MWP in order to “contain” it (meaning, to see how far back it went before temps were cooler).

    The MBH hockey stick looks straight merely because it is a shorter hockey stick handle than subsequent reconstructions.

  392. #392 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Locus…

    Here are a dozen millennial reconstructions done between 1998 and 2006, that include MBH99.

    http://www.realclimate.org/images/ipcc_6_1_large.jpg

  393. #393 Christopher Winter
    December 27, 2015

    Locus (#356): I have no idea of what these series of quotes are supposed to mean. All except the first paragraph are from 2014. Only the first paragraph is from before the lawsuit but it doesn’t say anything about Mr. Potato-Head and his hockey stick.

    So what’s your point?

    Sorry about posting that twice. Please refer to #341; it’s formatted better.

    Perhaps you missed “Dr. Mann’s bestest buddy Phil Jones” and “a cabal of insecure, neurotic, ideological enforcers like Michael E Mann” and “Along the way, he noticed this Tweet by one of the few scientists still willing to be associated with Mann, Gavin Schmidt, explaining why Doctor Fraudpants had no choice but to sue.”

    It’s clear that Steyn is defaming Dr. Mann here. Do you deny that “Doctor Fraudpants” is an outright accusation of fraud?

    Note that this post was made in July 2009, before the lawsuit was actually filed. I don’t agree that the spate of similar posts from Steyn filed after that filing have no bearing on the case. They pertain to his state of mind.

    You can find this June 2004 assessment of Mark Steyn’s writing in the Boston Phoenix: “Steyn’s way — Write, twist, smear, and sneer. Repeat!
    Meet Mark Steyn, the most toxic right-wing pundit you’ve never heard of.”
    http://bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/dont_quote_me/multi-page/documents/03917099.asp

    Goes to character. Establishes a pattern of disinterest in conducting research to determine whether or not his pronouncements have any basis in reality. The money quote, IMO (from page 4):

    “Judgments about idiocy aside, Steyn’s got a point. But if American papers are duller than they need to be, they at least try to get the facts straight. They often fail, but there are corrections and ombudsmen and letters to the editor to provide at least some accountability. Steyn, on the other hand, is an acerbic stylist who would enliven any op-ed page. Yet, in his hands, facts are malleable things, to be twisted and reinterpreted and omitted in order to advance his particular point of view. His malpractice is hardly unique; but his sins are more egregious, and his gifts are more obvious, than is the case with lesser but more scrupulous talents.”

  394. #394 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 27, 2015

    #380
    “Even *if* Curry’s Stadium Wave or Lindzen’s Iris theory fail, it doesn’t mean that anyone else’s explanation for the pause *must* be correct.”

    First, I’m sure you’re aware that a number of papers, using different arguments, have rejected “the pause.”

    Second, even though scientists may not have known where the missing energy was, they knew it was in the climate system. It seems to me that if you want to explain a pause, you have to account for what would cause the cessation of additional energy, or account for a negative forcing that would counteract GHG emissions.

    Third, I suspect that you’re again citing a source without having looked sufficiently into it. From your source:

    “Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably.”

    Note the depth. The Balmaseda et al. paper, Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content, doesn’t focus on the abyss:

    “In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend.”

    In other words, the two papers really aren’t referring to the same thing. So contrary to your hasty assumption, the paper you cite doesn’t reject previous findings, and in no way vindicates the results and views of the Lindzens and and the Currys.

  395. #395 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    Did Locus completely blank my comment at #366?

    What an odd thing to do.

  396. #396 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    I am not sure, but I think Dr. Mann only asked for legal expenses to be paid by the defendants.

    “Actual damages” are legal expenses, and include non-monetary awards— such as the defendants being required to apologize as well as being ordered where and when to apologize.

    No. Actual damages exclude attorney fees. I’d have to look at D.C. law to see whether they’re allowable in the case of exemplary/punitive damages in defamation, but I just returned yesterday from holiday travel, and I’m not sure when I’ll be able to get to it.

    If I were to blindly bet, my wager would be on Mann’s not being able to recover legal expenses even if he prevails. “Lawfare” is a risky gambit.

  397. #397 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    Also:

    Funny thing about discovery: USA lawyers overwhelmingly agree that plaintiffs must never be subjected to any kind of discovery.

    I really have no idea where you picked up this notion. A bit of help, please?

  398. #398 Desertphile
    December 27, 2015

    “I really have no idea where you picked up this notion. A bit of help, please?”

    The Journal of the American Bar Association, constantly, over and over and over again. See, for one example, Edna Selan Epstein’s article dated June 2012 on the subject. Also articles by Maxwell Kennerly regarding plaintiff discovery in his year 2013 series. The problems are two: #1, discovery of plaintiffs in tort litigation almost never yields any useful information, but #2 costs many thousands of dollars.

    You didn’t mention it, but do you think deposing Dr. Mann will do anything at all but waste time and money?

  399. #399 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #383 says:
    Before the warmists were salivating that a large judgment in Mann’s favor would scare the “deniers” into silence and prevent those dastardly villains from confusing the public.

    Once again we hear a denier falsely claiming speech infringement. No, Locus, it’s all about (say it with me) defamation. Deniers and their masters have always been free to give their opinions. It’s just that when they cast their psychologically projected aspersions on individual scientists it becomes a problem. In this particular case, though, they’ve attacked a scientist who just happens to hit back.

    Let’s pull our heads out the sand and realize that this Mann suit decision (assuming it’s ever handed down) is a crap shoot. Whether Mann wins or loses, the best thing that can happen is that it gets a respectable amount of publicity which may further expose Steyn et al. for the frauds they are. Heads we win, tails you lose.

    Oh yeah, and as #364 SteveP correctly said, “this is just a trivial but highly entertaining side show to the main event.”

  400. #400 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 27, 2015

    #392
    “Discovery applied to Dr. Mann makes no legal sense at all. There is no evidence he can produce that shows Steyn’s statement is true.”

    No. But his interest would be to provide evidence that it’s false.

  401. #401 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Dan #344 says:
    A perfect example is the OJ murder trial in the 90’s. After that trial, millions of people called OJ a murderer despite being found not-guilty. Imagine the libel settlements he would have had, if Mann’s (and his fellow Mann-boy lovers on this website) had their way

    I think the Simpson murder trial is far from a perfect example. Just for a moment, imagine the discovery process. Assuming any lawyer would be dumb enough to represent him, I think O.J. would file one case. If he’s lucky it will go nowhere, and then he could go back to Par 3 to look for who really did it.

  402. #402 John Mashey
    December 27, 2015

    #392
    “The only thing discovery in this case is designed to show is who actually wrote the false statement in question, and who allowed the falsehood to be published. In other words, discovery is designed to identify the defendants without ambiguity.”

    Actually, I don’t think these are in much doubt.
    I think there is plenty of evidence for “actual malice” for at least several of the defendants, especially the one I’ve studied extensively, CEI … but as I’ve pointed out, there is potential in this case to expose a lot of connections.

  403. #403 Brainstorms
    December 27, 2015

    It would work to aid the defendants’ desire to delay the entire proceedings…

  404. #404 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    BBD #336:

    1) I would dare anyone other than BBD to point to figure 3 of MBH99 and say that the plot between 1000AD – 1200AD is “anomalous”. It’s the start of a gentle downward slope on the graph until 1800AD. MBH99 effectively erased the MWP

    2) Yes, I’ve read the Zorita paper. Several times. And it’s become clear that you still have no idea of what that paper is about.

    The paper is what is commonly referred to as “damage control”. It’s written by folks who believe in AGW but who have become worried that revelations of Mann’s sloppy, slipshod science threatens to undermine the credibility of everyone else in the field.

    The paper acknowledges that the AGW community jumped on the MBH98/MBH99 bandwagon too quickly and too enthusiastically without a good and proper vetting.

    “Icons of past temperature variability, as featured
    in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over nearly
    two decades, have changed from a schematic sketch in 1990, to a seemingly
    well-solved story in 2001, to more explicit recognition of significant uncertainties in 2007.”

    The paper says that the IPCC started “stepping back” from the MBH reconstruction shown in the 2001 report,

    “IPCC 2007: ‘Stepping Back’
    In the most recent IPCC report, further consideration
    of existing and the development of new reconstruc-
    tions, methodological disputes, and analysis called
    for a retreat from the 2001 position that recon-
    structed temperatures were well understood.”

    And the paper notes that playing “hide-the-decline” is not a good idea,

    “The climatic signal in proxy records is now
    routinely calibrated—and often verified—via comparisons
    with instrumental records allowing assessment
    of proxy trustworthiness in the recent period.”

    The paper says that the AGW community has learned from the bad example of Mann’s dodgy methods.

    So how does this “directly contradict” Steyn’s (and my) position that Mann is a lousy scientist?

    3) Why was my example of Willie Soon such a bad choice? I specifically chose Soon **because** he’s held in such contempt by the AGW community.

    4) “This was a strawman last time you said it”. Why? I was thinking of providing another example but after #3 I’m afraid that you might misinterpret the argument again.

    5) “Climate isn’t a bouncing ball”. So the ice ages were not a series of oscillations of climate?

    6) “…, *all* modern warming is anthropogenic”. This statement is entirely unsupported by evidence. With the rapid industrialization of parts of the Third World, most notably China, estimated man-made emissions of CO2 since 2000 have accelerated.

    http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html#three

    And yet global temperatures have essentially flat-lined.

    http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

    So how in the world can you state with such certainty that *all* modern warming is anthropogenic?

    7)”…so why are you posturing around in comments here as if you knew more than the experts?” Are you claiming expert status?

    8)”In the original papers in which the reconstructions were presented.” You just finished accusing me of not reading the Zorita paper. So how come I remember the following sentence, but you apparently don’t?

    “Even though this reconstruction
    was presented with calibration uncertainties, their
    common omission in subsequent discussion, may have
    led to an overly optimistic assessment of the degree to
    which past temperatures were understood.”

  405. #405 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    The Journal of the American Bar Association, constantly, over and over and over again. See, for one example, Edna Selan Epstein’s article dated June 2012 on the subject.

    The closest hit I’m getting here is “So You Want to Depose Opposing Counsel?” Again, more specificity, please. Ditto on the Kennedy.

  406. #406 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    #401 Locus

    1) I would dare anyone other than BBD to point to figure 3 of MBH99 and say that the plot between 1000AD – 1200AD is “anomalous”. It’s the start of a gentle downward slope on the graph until 1800AD. MBH99 effectively erased the MWP

    See #387 Rob Honeycutt and #366.

    2) Yes, I’ve read the Zorita paper. Several times. And it’s become clear that you still have no idea of what that paper is about.

    It speaks for itself (emphasis added):

    Frank et al. (2010):

    The geological principle of uniformitarianism, often summarized as ‘the present is the key to the past’, was invoked by early natural scientists to comprehend long time-scale processes that occurred so slowly or in the far distant past, that only traces remaining could be used to infer what occurred. Significant natural variability and the long response time of the oceanic and terrestrial systems to climate change, make it exceedingly difficult to understand and therefore predict climate based upon short present observational data. Current anthropogenic activities
    have led to unprecedented trajectories and states in the earth’s coupled climate system, but characterization of the natural climate variability will at least allow a better understanding of the basic operating rules and patterns of climate change. In the context of trying to understand the consequences of new anthropogenic regimes, this uniformitarianism paradigm must be flipped and the past used to grasp hints for what the future may hold.

  407. #407 dean
    United States
    December 27, 2015

    Before the warmists were salivating that a large judgment in Mann’s favor would scare the “deniers” into silence and prevent those dastardly villains from confusing the public.

    Even though that statement is a massive lie from the denier/liar side, it is what would be screamed continually if Mann wins, as it is too good a PR chance (from their point of view) to give up. If you think locus’ posts now are stunning only for their lack of accuracy, imagine what they would be like if Mann prevails: the dishonesty would flow unabated.

    But if steyn wins “freedom of speech” will no longer be touted as having been the point of the suit: rather, it will be spun as a referendum on the validity of the science. The dishonest cry from locus (and other, similarly unknowledgable folk) will be that Mann lost because the science has been found lacking.

    Either way the denialists win: it will matter not to their followers that whatever the verdict the message sent will be false.

  408. #408 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    5) “Climate isn’t a bouncing ball”. So the ice ages were not a series of oscillations of climate?

    Oscillations in response to net forcing change are not bouncing balls. The balls are orbiting.

  409. #409 Brainstorms
    December 27, 2015

    Either way the denialists win

    Until they lose — when Nature, who is unswayed by their self-serving propaganda and false messages, rolls over them with storms, property loss, destroyed crops, displaced populace, droughts, etc. taking their homes, their food, their money, and in some cases, their loved ones with Her.

    Fools. You fool no one but those who would suffer with you. We’d leave you all to rot but for the fact that you’ll “take us down with you”.

  410. #410 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #401 says:

    3) Why was my example of Willie Soon such a bad choice? I specifically chose Soon **because** he’s held in such contempt by the AGW community.

    Why isn’t Willie Soon held in contempt in your community? Is it because you people will take any “expert” you can get regardless of any lack of veracity or propriety? If Michael Mann suddenly gets the “Willies,” the hockey stick will still be here, because it’s been replicated numerous times and from all angles for the past 15 years. On the other hand, Soon has been thoroughly discredited and all you have to show for it is more mountains of egregious, shoddy shillery.

    Your entire post indicates to me you simply don’t know when to stop digging.

    5) “Climate isn’t a bouncing ball”. So the ice ages were not a series of oscillations of climate?

    Reference your “rebound” comment.
    Stop. Digging.

  411. #411 BBD
    December 27, 2015

    Locus

    So how in the world can you state with such certainty that *all* modern warming is anthropogenic?

    Like this.

    How would you show that modern warming is not anthropogenic?

  412. #412 Desertphile
    December 27, 2015

    BBD: How would you show that modern warming is not anthropogenic?”

    Gosh, that should be easy for the paranoid conspiracy alarmists to do: just point to what is actually warming the planet anomalously. They insist it isn’t human-produced greenhouse gases—- so fine! WHAT IS IT, THEN?

  413. #413 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #380 cosmicomics:

    1) So there is no ‘pause’? So why is Kevin Trenberth and other prominent warmists trying to explain it? AGW is supposedly a “settled science” but the AGW can’t even agree on what temperatures are doing today? I’m filled with confidence.

    2) I don’t get your point here. First you say that with regards to the missing heat that scientists “knew it was in the climate system”. But then you mention negative forcing so there wouldn’t be any missing heat. So what are you saying?

    3) It’s not my “hasty assumption”. It’s NASA’s.

    “The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years. ”

    and,

    “In the 21st century, greenhouse gases have continued to accumulate in the atmosphere, just as they did in the 20th century, but global average surface air temperatures have stopped rising in tandem with the gases. The temperature of the top half of the world’s oceans — above the 1.24-mile mark — is still climbing, but not fast enough to account for the stalled air temperatures.”

    4) “…and in no way vindicates the results and views of the Lindzens and and the Currys.”

    And who said it would? I just finished complaining about the False Dilemma fallacy and here it is again. If theory ‘A’ fails that does not mean that theory ‘B’ must be correct. Fill in ‘A’ and ‘B’ any way you wish.

    I

  414. #414 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #341 Winter:

    It’s not the formatting or the double-posting.

    Your first paragraph is from 2009, i.e. pre-lawsuit, but it does not mention Mann or the hockey stick.

    All the subsequent quotes from Steyn are from 2014, after the lawsuit was filed.

  415. #415 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #407 Spriggs:

    Let me try this again.

    To begin. I am not endorsing any of Willie Soon’s work. I haven’t studied it and therefore cannot comment.

    The question was whether a subsequent paper by Mann should be accepted as an independent confirmation of Mann’s previous work.

    So all I did is hypothesize what would happen if things were reversed. You have heard of that argument haven’t you?

    My question was would the warmist community accept any following papers by Soon to be an independent confirmation of his previous work. My guess is an emphatic NO! And yet warmists demand that subsequent papers by Mann be considered independent confirmations.

    Hence my accusation of hypocrisy.

    Thats it.

  416. #416 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #407 Dean:

    Really? Mr Potato-Head himself, when announcing his lawsuit on Facebook, characterized his lawsuit as part of a “battle” for public opinion.

    “There is a larger context for this latest development, namely the onslaught of dishonest and libelous attacks that climate scientists have endured for years by dishonest front groups seeking to discredit the case for concern over climate change.”

    and,

    “Now would be a great time to help out w/ the larger battle by assisting climate scientists in their efforts to fight back against the attacks.”

    And hey I’m glad that you can predict my future ‘dishonesty’ if Steyn wins. I didn’t know you were psychic. Can you tell me the next Powerball numbers?

  417. #417 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #408 BBD:

    Those are *models* that are constantly being revised. You should review Richard Feynman’s advice on how hard it is to actually know something.

    These models are subject to constant revision. Case in point,

    “The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM TSI satellite composite was updated using corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The corrections lower the ACRIM3 scale by ~5000 ppm, in close agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (solar constant ~1361 W/m^2). Relative variations and trends are not changed. Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites, e.g. the decadal trending during solar cycles 21-22, are tested against a set of solar proxy models, including analysis of Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989-1992). Our findings confirm: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981-1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22-23. Our findings do not support: (1) The downward corrections to originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) A step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) the validity of ERBE’s downward trend during the ACRIM Gap or (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037%/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21-22. Thus, solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models. ”

    http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7194

    So maybe the chart you showed won’t change. And then again maybe it will.

  418. #418 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #403 BBD:

    Uh, you realize you just shot yourself in the foot. With an elephant gun.

    In post #408 you state categorically that *all* recent warming is anthropogenic. No doubt about it and you’ve provided a graph that sums it all up.

    And yet here you provide a quote full of warnings about natural variability.

    “Significant natural variability and the long response time of the oceanic and terrestrial systems to climate change, make it exceedingly difficult to understand and therefore predict climate…”

    If it’s “exceedingly difficult to understand and therefore predict climate” then tell me again how you can be so sure of that chart that ascribes *all* recent warming to anthropogenic sources?

  419. #419 SteveP
    Third Stone From The Sun
    December 27, 2015

    #384 Locus
    “And the dark reality that the Mann lawsuit might not be such a cakewalk begins to penetrate the warmist hive-mind.”

    ***”Warmist hive mind”. God that is rich! “Warmist hive mind”! Is that anything like a “ditto head”? Mark Steyn is a team mate of Rush Limbaugh, the king of ditto-head-olatry. Talk about your hive mind! The die hard ditto-head belief that fossil fuel carbon has nothing to do with climate certainly sounds like it is more congruent with “hive mind” than a bunch of scientists measuring and predicting phenomenon related to carbon dioxide. Are you completely unfamiliar with the concept of projection?

    “Before [comma needed here] the warmists were salivating that a large judgment in Mann’s favor would scare the “deniers” into silence and prevent those dastardly villains from confusing the public.” Perhaps you have a hard time empathizing with someone who has worked hard and honestly and who is being abused by a loud mouthed lout. Steyn is a bully who abuses free speech and it looks like Steyn has now used his free speech rights to earn himself a painful lesson in libel law. Hurrah.

    “But now that the warmists have finally started to get a handle on just how difficult it will be for Mann to prove actual malice, suddenly the case is no big deal.” National Review should have known better than to let Mark Steyn snarl and froth at the mouth like a rabid wolverine, but they apparently have lost any semblance of the restraint and elegance once displayed by their bright but awful Mr. Buckley. I guess you want us to think that this is a really big, really important case and I’m sorry, but I just can’t rise to that bait. I suppose that you feel that Dr. Mann is really some kind of really important cult leader in the fight against global warming, or that this case is really important, but really, they are not. The really important people to global warming science were Fourier, Tyndall, and Arrhenius. You can certainly exercise your free speech rights to attack those brilliant men if you like, and they won’t fight back, but if you do so you will merely remove any doubts about your status as a pedantic pea brained science bashing imbecile. Cheers.

  420. #420 SteveP
    Planet of Stupid Monkeys
    December 27, 2015

    #414 Locus

    I see now that you are citing the famed Climastrologer Nicola Scafetta! Wow! You are really scraping the bottom of the barrel this time! How about throwing in one of his cosmic ray papers while you are at it!

    Is it starting to dawn on you now that there is no good evidence for your position? Well, keep digging. If you find the philosopher’s stone down there, let us all know!

  421. #421 Locus
    Earth
    December 27, 2015

    #416 SteveP:

    “… someone who has worked hard and honestly …”

    Honest?

    Mann got caught **falsifying a quote** in his court filings. He took the quote from the Muir Russell report,

    “On the specific allegations made against the behaviour of CRU scientists, we find that their rigour and honesty as scientists are not in doubt.”

    and changed it to read the following in his court filings to obscure the fact that the report was only charged with examining the CRU scientists,

    “The report examined whether manipulation or suppression of data occurred and concluded that “the scientists’ rigor and honesty are not in doubt. [my bold][38 – Muir Russell Report]”

    Mann is suing over suggestions that he’s not a trustworthy character and to prove what an honest guy he is, he falsifies a quote.

    Can you imagine if one of the defendants had done such a thing? We’d have to scrape the warmists on this blog off the ceiling. But Mann does it and nobody here notices or cares.

    Unreal.

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/02/21/mann-and-the-muir-russell-inquiry-1/

  422. #422 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Locus @401…

    1) I would dare anyone other than BBD to point to figure 3 of MBH99 and say that the plot between 1000AD – 1200AD is “anomalous”. It’s the start of a gentle downward slope on the graph until 1800AD. MBH99 effectively erased the MWP

    Ah… See my full comment at 366.

    A thousand years back is about the peak of the MWP, thus Mann didn’t “erase” anything. He mere put it in context.

    HH Lamb’s graph was a schematic based on anecdotal evidence and was limited to northern England. MBH took things a huge step forward by pulling together a large number of northern hemisphere proxies to create a multiproxy millennial reconstruction.

    What you find is that, the MWP was present in many different proxies but it’s generally heterogeneous. Meaning, it didn’t occur at the same time in all locations. Warming and cooling in different regions at different times tend to cancel each other out. You can see this easily if you compare Greenland temps with Antarctic temps. You get a lot of oscillations between north and south. That’s just heat that’s already IN the climate system moving around to different places.

    What we have today is very very different. We have much more homogenous warming, especially since the 1960’s.

  423. #423 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Mann got caught **falsifying a quote** in his court filings.

    No he did not.

  424. #424 Rob Honeycutt
    December 27, 2015

    Last I looked McIntyre was not the Judge in the Mann v Steyn case. Therefore you are making a fraudulent statement yourself.

  425. #425 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    You should review Richard Feynman’s advice on how hard it is to actually know something.

    His popularizing of the term “cargo cult” is also notable in this context but, it seems, in a sense opposed to the one intended.

  426. #426 Narad
    December 27, 2015

    ^ Well, I just blew my hewing to legal aspects. The invocation of Feynman was just too much.

    I intend not to repeat this error.

  427. #427 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #412:

    All you people have with Mann are thousand-cut nitpicks on the periphery (you know, like what you’re doing now), apparently because you seem to find it impossible to accept what he represents. The bottom line is there is no intelligent acknowledgement of fraud with Mann as there is with Soon. Your hypothetical “if things were reversed” is therefore invalid.
    Stop digging.

    Locus’ original analogy:
    And yes Mann can continue his research as much as someone is willing to pay for it. But it should not be considered as *independent* confirmation of his earlier work. Let’s put it this way. If Willie Soon writes four more papers would you accept that as confirmation of his first paper?

  428. #428 Jim Spriggs
    Long Beach adjacent
    December 27, 2015

    Locus #314 says:

    Really? Mr Potato-Head himself, when announcing his lawsuit on Facebook, characterized his lawsuit as part of a “battle” for public opinion.

    Great, thanks for bringing that up. The thing “our side” always seem to have are the facts. With PR that’s considered a plus.

    I think the era of scientists meekly stepping out of the way of attacks on their credibility is coming to a close. Nothing like this assault on science has ever happened in the modern age. Yeah, Steyn and his minions have a tiger by the tail with Mann, and there’s a lot of us to back him up. The deniers who make it seem like they’re more numerous than they really are had better get used to taking a lot of punches.

  429. #429 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    #415 Locus

    In post #408 you state categorically that *all* recent warming is anthropogenic. No doubt about it and you’ve provided a graph that sums it all up.

    And yet here you provide a quote full of warnings about natural variability.

    I showed that there is no evidence for any increase in natural forcing sufficient to drive modern warming. I then asked you (#408) to *show* that modern warming is *not* anthropogenic.

    You have not done this.

    Before you start spluttering, referencing Scafetta on solar forcing uncertainty doesn’t carry much weight as Scafetta has never published anything about climate that wasn’t riddled with errors.

    Two key points on NS’s claims: first, if TSI were increasing, then the stratosphere should be warming. It is in fact cooling (as a consequence of the increasing atmospheric concentration of CO2). Second, solar variability during the Schwabe cycle is only thought to alter GAT by about 0.2C peak to trough and the cyclic variation cancels out on the multidecadal scale anyway, so the ‘significance’ of any climatic effect would be moot.

    I read through the WUWT article you are getting this stuff from and suggest that you review the comments by Leif Svalgaard for expert perspective on NS’s results.

    If it’s “exceedingly difficult to understand and therefore predict climate” then tell me again how you can be so sure of that chart that ascribes *all* recent warming to anthropogenic sources?

    Because OHC is increasing. The only way the climate system could be heated from within would be a net loss of energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, which would result in an overall decrease in OHC in the upper ocean layer. This is not observed but the opposite is: OHC is increasing. This shows that energy is accumulating in the climate system and the reasons for this are well understood to be exclusively anthropogenic.

  430. #430 SteveP
    Terminator
    December 28, 2015

    #418 Hocus Pocus Locus

    So once again you have shown the ability to gin up outrage over things that are not outrageous, in this case, a general exoneration of climate scientists by people in a better position to judge them than you. And you think that this exoneration somehow does not apply to Dr. Mann’s work and correspondence with scientists at the CRU?

    You certainly seem to have studied at the same drama queen school as Mark Steyn. Or perhaps you both have simply have spent too much time dipping into the same petrochemical contaminated well and are now both completely addled. If you weren’t both such egregious cat callers, you would be eliciting pity from those of us with the capacity to empathize.

    Here is an actual video of Mark Steyn cat calling. It is indeed worthy of sympathy. Caution- Severe meh involved. Oh and Sting and the Police should sue for the stolen base line.

  431. #431 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Desertphile #399 asked “You didn’t mention it, but do you think deposing Dr. Mann will do anything at all but waste time and money?”

    Yes – deposing Dr. Mann will be very helpful to all the defendants.

    As other commenter’s have noted, this case is all about the discovery.

    Both sides will have questions for the other – and that is normal.

    Assuming Steyn hasn’t prevailed on the issue that his writings are an opinion – Steyn will be trying to show that Dr. Mann’s graph is fraudulent.

    Why? Because if he affirmatively proves his statement is true then he wins.

    There are many many topics related to the graph, which Steyn will want to ask Dr. Mann.

    I cannot wait to read the transcript.

    I predict that Dr. Mann will very much regret suing Steyn after the deposition transcript is published (if it is).

    The entire unfortunate lawsuit will have been worth it if Steyn gets a chance to depose Dr. Mann.

    I am actually quite concerned that the entire lawsuit will be dismissed before we ever get to see Dr. Mann deposed – which would be a real shame.

    Still – keep the popcorn coming – hopefully the intermission created by this appeal will be over soon.

  432. #432 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    RickA lives in a fantasy land …

  433. #433 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    RickA lives under a moss covered bridge and jumps out at passersby…

  434. #434 dean
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    I still have not seen ricka, locus, or any of the other liars/science deniers, provide an intelligent explanation for the reason they continue to arbitrarily dismiss the various studies that support Mann’s work, the hockey stick, and the accumulated science in general.
    Could they do it if they wanted to, or are they doing it simply because they don’t understand it?

  435. #435 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt #386: Thank you for the reasoned response that discusses various aspects of the case, and avoids the personal attacks some other posters seem unable to resist.

    To address your points, in order:

    (1) I am unaware of any law that distinguishes between a “minor” public figure and a “major or non-minor” public figure, as it applies to the malice and actual knowledge requirements. Being a public person is kind of like being pregnant — you either you are or you aren’t…

    (2) I agree that Steyn’s statements against Mann have a political basis, which actually strengthens Steyn’s case, as our system affords political speech the highest levels of protections (as opposed to say, artistic work which can be banned on obscenity grounds). Climate change is a political issue, as various parties have different ideas on how to respond, how much money to spend, economic consequences, etc.

    (3) While Mann v. steyn might not “matter” to some, it certainly matters to Steyn, who is being forced to spend a ton of money and time on legal fees and procedures.

    And that last point is what makes Mann’s antics so deplorable. He files these lawsuits knowing most people don’t carry libel insurance, thus forcing them to incur the legal fees and costs on their own. When this becomes no longer feasible, the party agrees to a settlement, which Mann spins as a victory (whether or not the settlement contains a retraction or admission of responsibility).

    As Steyn rightly notes, the process of being sued is almost as bad as being found responsible. And don’t give me this garbage about Steyn getting his money back if he wins. I have had fees and costs awarded to my client numerous times; they barely ever collect. Also, courts rarely award the full amount of fees and costs.

  436. #436 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    It’s not about science. It’s about Mann, conspiracy theories, and the art of smearing.

    “If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him.”
    ~ Cardinal Richelieu

  437. #437 John MAshey
    December 28, 2015

    Dean:
    See Pseudoskpetics are not sekeptics and read about Morton’s Demon, which
    “stands at the gateway of a person’s senses and lets in facts that agree with that person’s beliefs while deflecting those that do not. This demon is used to explain the phenomenon of confirmation bias.”

    Some such Demons are Sauron-sized,, able to repel basic laws of physics like conservation of energy.

    These are especially useful to those angry people (males, mostly)who need people to hate, of whom they can learn by reading Steyn or Marc Morano. There is always a good supply of angry people to then send hate mail, make death treats, leave eviscerated rat on doorstep.,etc.

  438. #438 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    My #434 was in response to dean re: RickA et al.

  439. #439 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Chris Winters: Regarding your posts about celebrities never winning libel cases, I would agree they can, but it is rare and much more difficult. Even the article linking to the Ventura case (which is up on appeal, I believe), says as much. As for the Texas couple, I could not see how they were public figures (unless being accused of a crime makes you a public figure per se, which it might in some of the 51 jurisdictions in this country).

    I agree, it can happen. But, based on the facts we know so far, Mann is highly unlikely to succeed. As experts in this area have stated (and I have linked to), short of Steyn saying, under oath, I know Mann’s hockey stick is legit, and I said it anyway because I just don’t like him, Mann has an uphill battle.

    Of course, Steyn might say that. That is what discovery is for. If I was in the betting business, however, I would bet against it…

  440. #440 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “And that last point is what makes Mann’s antics so deplorable. He files these lawsuits knowing most people don’t carry libel insurance, thus forcing them to incur the legal fees and costs on their own.”

    Classic blame-the-victim argumentation. By Dan’s logic, no one should ever sue anyone for any reason because … the poor defendent will incur legal fees.

  441. #441 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan @435…

    You could apply Warhol to this idea and easily state that we are all public figures, albeit for 15 minutes.

    There certainly is no standard which you can determine if someone is or is not a public figure. And, no, it’s NOT like being pregnant. There absolutely are different levels of being a public figure. Barack Obama is not a public figure at the same level as Michael Mann is a public figure. Most people on the planet know who Obama is. Most people on the planet do NOT know who Michael Mann is.

  442. #442 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    By the way SteveP, you might think Steyn’s musical productions are cringe worthy, but his recent release hit number 1 on the Amazon jazz charts, beating out Michael Buble, among others. You might not like, but others sure due…

    Ironically, if Mann’s interpretation of the 1st Amendment is correct, Steyn could sue you for your statements. After all, it is a fact that his record reached no 1 in its category. Therefore, you should know it is not cringeworthy.

    Thank God for people like Steyn, who stick up for the rights of all people (even those who do not like him) to engage in free discourse on all matters, from politics to science to music…

  443. #443 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt: in the real world, yes, there are distinctions, but for legal purposes when adjudicating libel/defamation cases, there is no distinction. If there is, link to your authority.

    As for Mann, while not as well known as Obama, the Court has already declared him a public person. Unlike the existence of malice, the issue of Plaintiff’s status as a public person is a legal issue for the judge to decide, not a factual issue for the jury, because it goes to the duty owed by Defendant to Plaintiff, which, again, the judge determines. The jury determines if Defendant breached said duty.

  444. #444 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog: It is only “blame the victim” mentality if you view Mann as a victim. I don’t, and the law most likely won’t either. Also, Mann has a history of doing this to others who disagree with him.

    Believe me, I am all for people suing if legitimately wronged. I make my living defending individuals and businesses who have been sued. What I find deplorable is abusing the system, via frivolous litigation, in an attempt to silence legitimate speech (whether I agree with said speech or not).

    I would hope we would all find that deplorable…

  445. #445 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan…

    Climate change is a political issue, as various parties have different ideas on how to respond, how much money to spend, economic consequences, etc.

    And here lay the rub.

    Steyn is attempting to use empirically based scientific research as a political soccer ball.

    Mann’s work is overwhelmingly accepted in the scientific community as being good research, even as being seminal early research on millennial temperature reconstruction. It was not perfect, nor is any science perfect. Science is an iterative process where each piece of published research is a stepping stone to newer better research. Mann’s work is clearly NOT fraudulent by any realistic scientific measure. And Mann has right to defend attacks against his credibility as a scientist.

    Steyn is welcome to all his opinions about how we respond to the science. He does not have the right to deliberately try to destroy a scientist’s reputation in the pursuit of his political opinions. That is a clear case of libel, whether he is deliberately doing it or is doing it by ignoring the abundant evidence contrary to his statements.

    The long and short is, Mann’s work is clearly NOT fraudulent by any stretch of the imagination. Steyn made claims of fraud that are provably right or wrong. Those claims are clearly wrong.

  446. #446 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Thank God for people like Steyn…

    I just threw up in my mouth.

    Few people on this planet have done more damage to rational discourse.

  447. #447 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “Ironically, if Mann’s interpretation of the 1st Amendment is correct, Steyn could sue you for your statements.”

    Gosh, and here I thought the case was being judged under libel law …

  448. #448 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “dhog: It is only “blame the victim” mentality if you view Mann as a victim.”

    If being falsely accused of being guilty of scientific fraud doesn’t make one a victim, it is hard to see what would make one a victim in your mind. Oh, yeah, the person who is sued for making false accusations is the victim in your mind …

    “I don’t, and the law most likely won’t either.”

    As you well know, a pubic figure can lose a libel case despite being victimized …

  449. #449 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Dhog: #447: Ummm, libel law is part of 1st amendment law (along with obscenity, prior restraint, etc)

  450. #450 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan…

    He files these lawsuits knowing most people don’t carry libel insurance, thus forcing them to incur the legal fees and costs on their own.

    Hm… Interesting. Being that libel seems to be Steyn’s stock and trade, if he wasn’t carrying libel insurance that’s his own fault.

    I have to say, this all strikes me as a crybaby defense of Steyn and others.

    Which brings up the question, exactly how many times has Mann done this? As far as I’m aware, only twice. Once with Tim Ball and once with Mann. In both cases these people viciously and unjustifiably attacked Mann’s scientific work.

    Do you not believe that Michael Mann has a right to defend his scientific reputation? Is he just supposed to idly stand by while people attempt to destroy his scientific career?

  451. #451 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Correction: “…once with Tim Ball and once with Steyn.”

  452. #452 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt: It depends on how you define “fraud.” If, as Steyn believes (based on the East Anglia emails, etc), that Mann ignored/downplayed data that went against his thesis, that could be said to be fraudulent.

    Also, if Mann claimed to be a Nobel Prize winner, when in fact he never won the prize, that could be considered a fraudulent statement.

    You can agree with Steyn; you can disagree. But Steyn has the right to make such statements without fear of civil recourse

  453. #453 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob, and how is Mann’s career destroyed? if he is not a fraud, the facts will speak for themselves. Again, it all comes down (as I have linked to the legal authority) that if Steyn reasonably believes Mann ignored certain data, his speech is protected.

    Also, the fact that he was “exonerated” does not mean that Steyn can assert the investigation (at least of them, by PSU) was conducted by an institution that very recently ignored evidence of wrongdoing against other prominent faculty members.

    Again, agree, disagree, whatever. It is protected speech and, barring something unforeseeable in discovery, Steyn will win this one going away…

  454. #454 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    And, to answer your last question, yes, I absolutely believe Mann has the right to protect his scientific work and reputation in the Court of public opinion, not via lawsuits.

    Ironically, Mann’s lawsuits make his science less credible, because his lawsuit, if successful, will silence his opponents. If his science was as accurate as he claims, he would not need to silence his critics.

    And it is a fair criticism to say a scientist ignored data that went against his position, and was fraudulent in so doing…

  455. #455 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt’s #445 hits the nail on the head, Dan.

    And Dan, listen to yourself:

    Ironically, Mann’s lawsuits make his science less credible, because his lawsuit, if successful, will silence his opponents. If his science was as accurate as he claims, he would not need to silence his critics.

    If Mann’s critics had responded in the scientific literature with a valid demonstration of error in Mann’s work then they would have made their point. But they did not because they could not. Instead, they chose to smear his reputation and it is for that that Mann is seeking legal redress.

    If the likes of Steyn were to engage with a proper scientific argument it would be impossible to ‘silence’ them.

  456. #456 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “Ironically, Mann’s lawsuits make his science less credible, because his lawsuit, if successful, will silence his opponents. If his science was as accurate as he claims, he would not need to silence his critics.”

    What idiocy. No, his critics will not be silenced. When you make obviously stupid and incorrect statements such as this, why would anyone pay any attention to anything you might say?

    “Dhog: #447: Ummm, libel law is part of 1st amendment law (along with obscenity, prior restraint, etc)”

    Ummm, libel laws in the US predate the Constitution. The First Amendment to some degree contradicts libel law (increasingly so in the last few decades) but to read the case as being “Mann’s interpretation of the First Amendment” is more than mildly inaccurate. The Court could, for instance, rule that there was no libel (as defined by libel law) in the first place without ever invoking 1st Amendment restrictions on the application of libel law based on Mann’s status as a public figure etc etc.

  457. #457 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    “his critics will not be silenced” in the sense BBD states above, i.e. if Steyn gets slapped for his accusing Mann of scientific fraud, it will have absolutely zero effect on scientific criticism of his work.

  458. #458 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    RH @ 446

    “I just threw up in my mouth.”
    No doubt that was Dan’s intent.

    “Few people on this planet have done more damage to rational discourse.”
    Well, I’d refer you to the role of talk radio in Rwandan massacres. We’re not there yet, but maybe eventually with the help of Dan’s myopic, legalistic viewpoint and the persistent “defining deviancy down” of wingnut mouthpieces.

    He has definitely shown his bias with regard to the science despite his statements to the contrary. You understand the operating distinctions between science and policy. Dan’s view from under his bridge is that all speech is political game for sophists and lawyers.

  459. #459 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan… If there were legitimate claims for fraud in the CRU email hack, that would have been a major issue and Mann would have been reprimanded in some manner.

    Mann’s Nobel Prize claims are also not fraudulent because he merely claims to have shared the prize with all the other scientists who contributed to the 2007 IPCC report.

    Mann’s professional reputation is clearly under attack from people like Steyn. There is clearly NO fraud on Mann’s part. Any claims of fraud are libelous.

    Your claim that libel is protected speech is wrong.

  460. #460 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan @454…

    And, to answer your last question, yes, I absolutely believe Mann has the right to protect his scientific work and reputation in the Court of public opinion, not via lawsuits.

    You’re essentially arguing there should be no such thing a libel law, and that’s just absurd. This is the sound of the wheels coming off your particular rhetorical cart.

  461. #461 RickA
    December 28, 2015

    OA #436:

    You are correct – this is not about the science.

    Many posters here seem to think the trial will turn on the consensus view of the science – which it will not.

    This trial will turn on the reasonableness of the defendant’s views (Steyn’s view is pertinent here) of Dr. Mann’s hockey stick graph.

    The science doesn’t matter and the posters views here don’t matter.

    What matters is whether the jury finds that Steyn’s statement is an opinion or not, and if it finds Steyn’s statement a factual assertion or not, and whether the jury finds (if it is a statement) to be false or not, and if it is found to be false – was Steyn’s reasonable to hold his view or not.

    At least that is my take on it.

    I am not a libel attorney, but a patent attorney, so I could be wrong.

    But I don’t think this case is about the science – so I agree with OA.

  462. #462 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan…

    You might also take note of the fact that this is not just Michael Mann arbitrarily deciding to sue Steyn for libel. Mike has a very good libel lawyer who is telling him he has a good shot at winning this. The rulings thus far in this case have also suggested the case has clear merit and can proceed.

    All of your claims suggest that this is a open and shut case for Steyn, and clearly that’s in no way an accurate assessment of the situation.

  463. #463 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    RickA…

    The judge in this case has already clearly stated that “fraud” is not an opinion. It is a statement of fact that can be proven true or false.

  464. #464 dean
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Dan at 155:

    I will agree I am ignorant when it comes to science.

    Dan at 454:

    Ironically, Mann’s lawsuits make his science less credible, because his lawsuit, if successful, will silence his opponents. If his science was as accurate as he claims, he would not need to silence his critics.

    In a mere 300 posts dan learned enough about science to be able to determine that a lawsuit is enough to make science less credible.
    Or, dan is simply doing what he does best – lying about things he doesn’t understand but opposes because he’s been told he should.

  465. #465 RickA
    December 28, 2015

    Rob #459:

    You are assuming libel, when that is Mann’s burden to prove.

    Mann has not yet proven there was a libel.

    This will be a very steep uphill path for Dr. Mann.

  466. #466 Brainstorms
    December 28, 2015

    If Mann were to have hired Dan the Lawyer to represent him…

    Dan the Denier would be singing the praises of Mann and describing him as a woeful victim and impugning Steyn’s character with all sorts of deplorable descriptions.

    Typical lawyer morals.

  467. #467 RickA
    December 28, 2015

    Rob #463:

    You are not reading the Judge correctly and therefore you are wrong.

    The Judge is saying that if you assume the paragraphs in the complaint are taken as true that Steyn’s statements could be considered statements of fact.

    The Judge is not finding that they in fact are statements of fact.

    Dr. Mann still has to PROVE that these are statements of fact and not opinion – that is his burden of proof.

    But don’t take my word for it – just wait and see.

  468. #468 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Dean #464: You really don’t understand my posts, or what this case is all about. I never claimed to learn anything about science. What I do know, and what is common knowledge among legal scholars, academics, practicing attorneys, etc., is that courts do not decide science.

    Mann v. Steyn has very little to do with climate change, or whether Mann’s hockey stick is legit. The case is about freedom of speech, and whether the Defendant is entitled to offer his opinion about scientific research he disagrees with, a scientist whom he believes ignored and manipulated data, and his opinions regarding the investigation.

    Further, how do you know I am a “denier (whatever that means)?” I have long said I don’t know who is right in the climate change debate, but the fact that one side seeks to silence critics does not bode well in its favor.

    Lastly, I have posted various articles from LEGAL academics regarding Mann v. Steyn, all of whom state Mann has a difficult, borderline impossible case. I have yet to see one person post a link from a LEGAL scholar which states, under current 1st Amendment jurisprudence, Mann has a strong case, or, for that matter, that this case is about science.

  469. #469 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Brainstorms, #466: How do you know anything about my morals? Also, it speaks volumes about your character and intelligence to judge an entire group of people. Some lawyers (most, at least the ones I know and work with) have morals. Some don’t, just like some doctors lack morals, some businessmen, and (dare I say, some scientists).

    If I represented Mann, what I would tell him is that he has a very difficult libel case against Steyn because ( the article from the Cal Berkely professor succinctly states) he is a public person, and people can say almost anything about public persons if they are dumb enough to believe it.

    I would then tell him that, if a lawsuit is filed, we would have to adduce, during discovery, some evidence that Steyn knew his comments were not true, yet made the statement anyway solely for malicious purposes. Next, I would tell Mann that the chances of adducing said evidence during discovery is slim, and that filing a lawsuit is probably not in his best interests because he could expose himself to judgment of attorneys fees and costs if the case is ultimately not successful.

    Lastly, I would explore other ways of obtaining his goals that does not involve litigation. I would encourage him to present his case in the court of public opinion. Write an Op Ed responding to Steyns’ comments proving how silly they are. Perhaps challenge Steyn to a debate, etc.

    Mann is certainly entitled to competent legal representation. If he has been fully advised of the difficulty of his case, then the decision to proceed is on him….

  470. #470 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt, #454: I am not sure how you can conclude I am arguing there should essentially be no libel laws. I have not stated what I think the law should be, merely what it is based on research and (most importantly), the opinions of legal scholars in this field. Whether I think there should be libel law, or my thoughts regarding the current burden for public persons, is not germane in any way to this issue..

    But, since you asked, I believe that free speech is the crown jewel of our personal rights, and that without it, all other rights will essentially cease to exist. I therefore fully support broad rights regarding speech..

    I also believe that the best defense to libel cases is in the court of public opinion. If Steyn’s statements are as outrageous as some here claim, Steyn will be proven a buffoon not to be taken seriously.

    I would much rather have these issues played out in the court of public opinion as opposed to the court of law, because if these situations are resolved legally, it will often come down to money, and legitimate speech will be stifled — which, in turn, would be a tragedy…

  471. #471 Dan
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt #459: Mann’s claims re: the Nobel Prize were fraudulent. He never clarified that he “shared” the nobel prize. Even if he did, that would still be a lie, as the Nobel committee made clear when it stated, unequivocally, that Mann is not a Nobel Prize recipient and should hold himself out to be…

    His original complaint stated Steyn defamed a nobel prize recipient. Not a “shared-nobel” prize recipient. If Mann’s statements were true, why did he amend his complaint to take said language out?

  472. #472 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, #455: Steyn did respond with a valid scientific argument, in which he relied on the opinions of other scientists (Dr. Curry, Dr. Happer, et. al.), each of whom disagrees with Mann’s hockey stick and state that Mann ignored certain data.

    Calling someone a fraud, if you reasonably believe they are a faud, is legit. Steyn is certainly free to take the side of Drs. Curry, Happer, et.al as opposed to. Dr. Mann…

    Btw, BBD, did you read the article by the legal scholar I linked to? If you did, you would realize all these Mann-boys are simply wrong when they fail to admit Mann has a difficult (albeit not impossible; almost impossible, but not quite) case.

  473. #473 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Dan #471:

    I think Rob (or perhaps someone else) said on other Steyn threads that they don’t blame Mann for this statement – they blame the lawyer.

    So I believe Rob would say that Mann never said he was a nobel prize receipient – his lawyer said that, made a mistake and then fixed it when he amended the complaint.

    Ridiculous, I know – but most of the people posting on this blog know nothing about legal process.

  474. #474 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    #472 Dan

    BBD, #455: Steyn did respond with a valid scientific argument, in which he relied on the opinions of other scientists (Dr. Curry, Dr. Happer, et. al.), each of whom disagrees with Mann’s hockey stick and state that Mann ignored certain data.

    No, the contrarian nonsense espoused by Steyn does not even approach a scientific argument. And you are ignoring my central point that had Steyn confined himself to a scientific argument and publications none of this would have happened.

  475. #475 SteveP
    Mirkwood
    December 28, 2015

    #442 Dan

    “By the way SteveP, you might think Steyn’s musical productions are cringe worthy, but his recent release hit number 1 on the Amazon jazz charts, beating out Michael Buble, among others. You might not like, but others sure due [sic]…” I have not said that his music is cringe worthy earlier, I think that those are your words, but the thought of listening to the samples of his CD again is repulsive to me. I like just about every type of music and yet here is something completely free of any redeeming musical features, a collection of un-inspirational, uncreative, covers to which he adds nothing. My aesthetics professor would have labeled it counterfeit art. There is a well known practice of conservative groups bulk buying books to drive up sales numbers, and I wonder if this CD got the bulk boost too. I sincerely doubt that any real jazz lovers would tolerate let alone purchase his detritus. It would be a typical Karl Rovian conservative strategy… pad his resume so he can get on more talk shows and spew more right wing crap.

    “Ironically, if Mann’s interpretation of the 1st Amendment is correct, Steyn could sue you for your statements. After all, it is a fact that his record reached no 1 in its category. Therefore, you should know it is not cringeworthy.” I know of no law, scientific or otherwise, that states that reaching the top of a chart is mutually exclusive with the property of being cringeworthy.

    “Thank God for people like Steyn, who stick up for the rights of all people (even those who do not like him) to engage in free discourse on all matters, from politics to science to music…” Which God would that be? The God of petrochemicals? Or Rush? At any rate, Mark Steyn is, in my opinion, remarkably devoid of musical talent, remarkably devoid of knowledge of science, and remarkably unfit to be writing anything about Michael Mann.. But there he is, another raucous rising star in the pantheon of outrage peddlers, boosted by right wing ideologues.

    Viciously bashing a scientist as Mark Steyn has done is a line of civility that he has stepped over with the help of anti-science, anti-intellectual, fossil fueled promoters. His hysterical attacks have no place in modern society. If he had legitimate evidence of fraud, he could have simply presented it. It would have been extremely powerful if it existed. But it did not exist, and he did not present anything tangible. He hurled the charge without evidence, without qualification, and then, to add insult to injury, he linked his victim with a universally loathed pervert. What Mark Steyn did is not free speech, in my opinion. In my opinion, it is libel serving no purpose other than to bring in bucks into his coffers as a salable form of right wing verbal violence pornography.

  476. #476 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    OA, is Prosser Garber (see article linked in post #345) a wingnut with myopic legal views? Not one person has responded to the opinions set forth by Professor Garber, a noted scholar on all aspects of 1st Amendment law, including libel law.

    The problem is most of the posters WANT Steyn to be liable, and therefore let their emotions get in the way of the objective legal standard (which is kind of ironic, as Steyn, essentially, accuses Mann of ignoring objective evidence that disputes his desired result).

    Again, Professor Garber supports Mann’s scientific positions, but realizes his case against Steyn is weak, at best.

    Not. One. Single. Poster. Has. Linked. An. Article. Disputing. Professor. Garber. Until someone can find a 1st amendment scholar disputing Garber, you all are engaged in wishful thinking.

    Personally, I don’t really care if Steyn is liable for libel (see what I did there?). I happen to enjoy Steyn’s writing, agree with some of his views and disagree with others. But, if according to the law he committed libel against Mann, I would say so.

    Instead, I rely on legal authority and scholars, not emotion

  477. #477 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    I’m going to keep asking this until I get a satisfactory answer:

    If MBH99 was so wrong as to merit the description of ‘fraudulent’ then why has 15 years of additional research only refined and not invalidated it?

  478. #478 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    Until someone can find a 1st amendment scholar disputing Garber, you all are engaged in wishful thinking.

    Not me, Dan. Feel free to review the thread. I have learned somewhat and disputed nothing about US libel law.

  479. #479 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Steve, #475. At least you admit that is your opinion, which you are certainly entitled to. And I respect the fact that you think the libel laws should be changed. It doesn’t change the fact, however, that, per the laws as the currently exist, Mann has a difficult case.

  480. #480 Dan
    December 28, 2015

    BBD #477: You make a legitimate point about MBH99, but you ignore the fact that Mann v. Steyn is NOT ABOUT SCIENCE. The court will not decide if Mann’s science is correct (other then to the extent it will determine if Steyn made false statements). But, even if Steyn made false statements, Mann has to prove he knew the statements were false, and the statements were made maliciously.

    I get it. You agree with Mann. You don’t think Mann is a fraud. Steyn does, and therein lies the legit disagreement. Steyn just published a book fully of scientists who take Mann to task. I read the book. There are lots of scientists who think Mann is a fraud.

    Isn’t Steyn free to agree with them, just as you are free to agree with Mann?

  481. #481 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rick, #473: You are probably right, and that is indeed ridiculous. At one point, Mann posted to his twitter feed a certificate he received from the IPCC about the Nobel Prize, as if that was the prize itself. He clearly held himself out to be a Nobel Prize winner (a perfect example is the Pulitzer Prize, which is sometimes awarded to entire news divisions or newspapers. In those cases, journalists who contributed to the paper/division/section winning the Pulitzer absolutely cannot and do not hold themselves out to be Pulitzer Prize winners).

    You are absolutely right that most people here have no idea how the legal process works. I can’t fault them for that, but it is frustrating that every lawyer on this thread, and every legal article cited that has addressed Mann v. Steyn, states Mann has a tough case.

    Why can’t they admit that? Are they that emotionally invested in Mann?

  482. #482 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Dhog, I have no idea what you are talking about in post 456. Obviously, 1st amendment law is far broader then just libel law, but libel law is a subset of 1st amendment jurisprudence. In other words, all libel cases are 1st amendment cases, but not all 1st amendment cases are libel cases.

    There is no dispute, even among Mann’s lawyers, that this case hinges on the 1st Amendment. Have you read the parties briefs? I have….

  483. #483 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    #480 Dan

    There are lots of scientists who think Mann is a fraud.

    Then where is the scientific literature demonstrating fundamental flaws in MBH99?

  484. #484 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Dan #481 – you ask “Are they that emotionally invested in Mann?”

    The answer is yes.

    Mann is their champion, to create propaganda so they can argue that the warming we have experienced is unprecedented (over various periods of time).

    If the warming is not unprecedented than their whole case falls apart.

    Because then we would have no way of knowing if the warming we are experiencing is natural or not.

    Mann got rid of the MWP (the flat part of the hockey stick).

    So they are emotionally invested in Mann – no doubt.

  485. #485 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, what does that have to do re: Mann v. Steyn, and the issue of whether Steyn libeled Mann? Steyn can certainly rely on scientists who disagree with Mann, and this just shows he truly believes Mann is a fraud. You seem to think that this MBH99 literature is dispositive of the legal issues..

    Btw, here is a good (albeit succinct) article discussing the difficulties Peyton Manning would face should he sue over recent HGH allegations…

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/could-peyton-manning-actually-win-a-lawsuit-against-al-jazeera/ar-BBnZbaB?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=DELLDHP

  486. #486 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Wikipedia, at least, gives us a more nuanced discussion of libel law and its relationship to the first amendment than Dan does.

    And given that Mann has a very competent expert in the field as his lawyer, I’d say it’s a fair guess that the black-and-white, cut-and-dried, “I’m right because I’m a lawyer” arguments Dan makes are, shall we say … overly simplistic.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_defamation_law

  487. #487 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rick, #484: I think you are right re: emotional investment. It is the only possible explanation for their responses to those who disagree with them. Both you and I have been called various names and been subject to numerous ad hominen attacks for having the temerity to think Mann has a difficult case under current libel laws in this county.

    Who knows? Maybe Mann will take this to the Supreme Court and they will overrule NYT v. Sullivan, Falwell v. Hustler, ect? Like I have said repeatedly (and I am sure you have as well), if Mann had a good case, I would say so and hope Steyn’s lawyers were advising him to issue a retraction and an apology….

  488. #488 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    RickA:

    “Because then we would have no way of knowing if the warming we are experiencing is natural or not.”

    Stick to your day job.

    Oh, and climate science is based on physics, not psychics …

  489. #489 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, what does that have to do re: Mann v. Steyn, and the issue of whether Steyn libeled Mann?

    I was challenging *your* assertion that:

    There are lots of scientists who think Mann is a fraud.

    You didn’t respond to the question. Once again:

    If MBH99 was so wrong as to merit the description of ‘fraudulent’ then why has 15 years of additional research only refined and not invalidated it?

    Where is the scientific literature demonstrating fundamental flaws in MBH99?

  490. #490 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “Both you and I have been called various names and been subject to numerous ad hominen attacks for having the temerity to think Mann has a difficult case under current libel laws in this county.”

    I doubt if anyone here would argue that Mann has a difficult case.

  491. #491 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog: Obviously, this area of law if far more complex then could be explained in this venue. And I have never said I was right because I am a lawyer. What I have said is that I have researched this issue, and the pertinent case law, as well as the opinions of various legal scholars in this area, suggest Mann has a difficult case.

    I have clearly said, when linking to Professor Garber, to NOT take my word, take his. Instead, you rely on Wikipedia (which, ironically, discusses the challenges facing public persons, as promulgated in NYT v. Sullivan)

  492. #492 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    that Mann does NOT have a difficult case.

  493. #493 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog: re-read the posts. Numerous posters have used terms like “slam-dunk,” and “text-book” case of libel…

  494. #494 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “Instead, you rely on Wikipedia (which, ironically, discusses the challenges facing public persons, as promulgated in NYT v. Sullivan)”

    I only used Wikipedia to underscore the fact that you’ve been arguing along very simplistic lines that aren’t particularly accurate.

  495. #495 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD: I am not a scientist. Your question would be better directed to Dr. Curry, Dr. Happer, and the 100+ scientists whom Steyn quotes in his recent book. I don’t even know what MBH99 is.

    I am here to discuss the law, not science…

  496. #496 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Fair enough, dhog. And to be clear, I have never said Mann can’t win. I have practiced law long enough (although only 10 years) to know that anything can happen in litigation. He certainly can win, it is just that it is a very difficult case and, if he is successful, I think it would likely be the result of an erroneous jury instruction that would be ripe for reversal on appeal (that is based on how things stand know; discovery can change everything)

  497. #497 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    Locus (#414): It’s not the formatting or the double-posting.

    Your first paragraph is from 2009, i.e. pre-lawsuit, but it does not mention Mann or the hockey stick.

    There are four excerpts from that same 25 July 2009 post by Steyn. The others mention Dr. Mann. I repeated these mentions in #392. You need to read more carefully.

    All the subsequent quotes from Steyn are from 2014, after the lawsuit was filed.

  498. #498 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    Dan,

    But, if according to the law he committed libel against Mann, I would say so.

    You mean if you thought he committed libel you would say so?Maybe, but now why do I doubt even that? Oh wait, could it be this:

    611
    Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 16, 2015
    Obstreporous, I actually agree with you when you state mother nature doesn’t care what people do. That is the smartest thing you have ever said. Mother nature is far too complex to concern itself with what man does, including how mankind produces and uses energy.

    There were wild climate extremes will before man existed, let alone started using fossil fuels. There was an ice age, little ice age; they used to hold winter fairs on the frozen thames; alligators used be found at the north pole, etc.

    The point is, some things are out of our control. One of them happens to be the climate. Now that you have admitted that, hopefully you can realize not only the futility, but the dire economic consequences that will follow by enacting such insane legislation as “cap and tax,” and other legislation to somehow limit carbon emissions.

    This is why the public no longer trusts the climate cartel. You all act as if extreme weather just appeared in the second half of the twentieth century, and conveniently ignore the warming and subsequent cooling that has existed for as long — and longer — then man has.
    http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/22/mark-steyns-newest-attack-on-michael-mann-and-the-hockey-stick/

    Now Dan, I know you’re not a dumb guy, so I know you had to go far out of your way to come up with something that ridiculous; and that’s taking into account that it’s basically just preprocessed meme hash.

  499. #499 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Desertphile #402: It is comments like these that really make me question some of Mann’s backers. when you say that discovery of plaintiff’s in tort litigation rarely leads to anything useful, you lose credibility with anyone who has basic understanding of how our legal system works.

    If I didn’t depose a plaintiff (or defendant if I represented the Plaintiff), I would be on the hook for malpractice. You never, ever, know what you might find during discovery. In medical malpractice cases, for example, I found evidence that a defendant doctor intentionally altered his medical records because there happened to be an original out there that we got through a different source….oops, as a former governor might say….

    Who knows what deposing Mann will yield? Maybe he has emails from years back admitting he is going to ignore all anti-warming evidence? It is unlikely, but crazier things have happened in discovery

  500. #500 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    “Dan at 155:

    I will agree I am ignorant when it comes to science.”

    So Dan admits to being ignorant about science but that doesn’t stop him from claiming that climate science is wrong about our CO2 emissions affecting climate, as quoted by OA above? Figures.

  501. #501 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    # 495 Dan

    BBD: I am not a scientist. Your question would be better directed to Dr. Curry, Dr. Happer, and the 100+ scientists whom Steyn quotes in his recent book.

    If there is such concern in academic circles, there should be a body of published work demonstrating fundamental flaws in MBH99. Since none exists, then it is reasonable to infer that there are no fundamental problems and claims that ‘lots of scientists think that Mann is a fraud’ are baseless and almost certainly incorrect.

    I don’t even know what MBH99 is.

    Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999). The source of the 1000yr temperature reconstruction usually referred to as the ‘hockey stick’.

    I am here to discuss the law, not science…

    Then you cannot reasonably assert that:

    There are lots of scientists who think Mann is a fraud.

    …unless you address the mystery of the Missing Literature.

  502. #502 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    OA, what I am stating in that post is that, as a non-scientist, I don’t know what to make of climate change. First, it is not an area that really fascinates me. Second, there are examples of extreme weather patterns well-before the industrial revolution and man-made emissions. What to make of these?

    When I refer to the climate cartel, what I mean is those people (scientists, politicians, etc), who go to extreme lengths to attack, abuse, destroy careers (look at the French weatherman who lost his job) to anyone who dares to challenge the notion that man is responsible for climate change.

    Now we have evidence of a pause. What to make of that? I haven’t the faintest idea, but when one side resorts to name calling, litigation, and otherwise abusive tactics, said side loses credibility in my opinion.

  503. #503 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, I was referring to the scientists quoted in Steyn’s most recent book, “A Disgrace to the Profession,” which I have actually read. Whether they or Mann and his backers have the better scientific evidence, I have no clue. But, there are scientists out there (even those who believe man-made global warming exists) that disagree with Mann and his methods, including some who claim he intentionally distorts his findings.

    This is relevant from a legal standpoint, because it lends credence to Steyn’s position that he actually believes Mann to be fraudulent…

  504. #504 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “OA, what I am stating in that post is that, as a non-scientist, I don’t know what to make of climate change.”

    No, you went far beyond that to outright rejection of the notion that human activity can impact climate:

    “some things are out of our control. One of them happens to be the climate. ”

    Science tells us that this is a false statement. To make it is to reject science.

  505. #505 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “I haven’t the faintest idea, but when one side resorts to name calling, litigation, and otherwise abusive tactics, said side loses credibility in my opinion.”

    Your speaking of this side, right?

    http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/blogimages/monckton_garnaut.jpg

  506. #506 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog, #500: When did I ever say climate emissions are wrong? I simply said there are scientists on both sides of this issue, and, as a lay person, it is fair to have questions about pre-industrial revolution climate patterns such as the MWP. Maybe, as some say, there is a difference (if I understand correctly) because the MWP was localized, instead of global. I don’t know?

    All I am saying is that it is REASONABLE to have question about climate science, and not agreeing with everything Mann says does not make one a “denier” or “wingnut.’

  507. #507 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “This is relevant from a legal standpoint, because it lends credence to Steyn’s position that he actually believes Mann to be fraudulent…”

    Only if the book is accurate, and the book is far from being accurate.

  508. #508 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Can you name one person who has ever lost his job for taking the side of man made climate change? I can, because it recently happened to a French meteorologist. Can you name one journalist or editor who was ever criticized for thinking there is too much climate coverage? Cause it happened to the editor of Reuters simply because climate coverage decreased (fortunately, he did not lose his job, and was proven right that climate stories decreased across the news injury). Can you point to lawsuits filed by those who question climate science to silence critics?

    That is what I mean by abusing the process, not comments on blogs

  509. #509 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog, #507: How is the book inaccurate? Are the scientists accurate, or does Steyn intentionally misrepresent their positions? Have you read the book?

  510. #510 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog, if the climate is not out of our control, then how to explain the ice-age? How did hurricanes occur before carbon emissions existed?

    Does it have to be an either-or? Isn’t possible man’s activities affect the climate, but can’t people disagree as to how much?

  511. #511 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, is it possible that the reason that there are few, if any, published papers challenging MBH is because scientists are afraid to criticize the “consensus” for fear that it will have on their professional, or even personal, lives. Look at what has happened to Dr. Curry? She was accused, literally, of sleeping with Steyn, has been mocked, etc.

    Isn’t that a fair inquiry?

  512. #512 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    RickA (#431): Assuming Steyn hasn’t prevailed on the issue that his writings are an opinion – Steyn will be trying to show that Dr. Mann’s graph is fraudulent.

    Why? Because if he affirmatively proves his statement is true then he wins.

    So you claim Steyn is trying to prove his statements are mere opinion, hence protected speech — and at the same time trying to prove they are factual and true?

    That would be a losing strategy.

  513. #513 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “dhog, if the climate is not out of our control, then how to explain the ice-age? How did hurricanes occur before carbon emissions existed?”

    Since people died before guns were invented, doesn’t this prove that guns don’t kill people?

    ” Isn’t possible man’s activities affect the climate, but can’t people disagree as to how much?”

    You said that man’s activities don’t affect the climate. Which is it?

  514. #514 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “BBD, is it possible that the reason that there are few, if any, published papers challenging MBH is because scientists are afraid to criticize the “consensus” for fear that it will have on their professional, or even personal, lives.”

    Ah, conspiracy raises its ugly head …

    As to what happened to Curry, she has been attacked for her activities outside of science, not inside science. She still publishes (though not often), has an apparently successful consultancy, and is still department chair at her university …

  515. #515 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    dhog, I said I am not sure if man’s activities affect climate. I do know climate varied extremely before man existed, as (I think) we would all agree. My point is that people should be able to disagree with man made climate change, or its extent, without being subject to the recriminations of job loss (French meteorologist), lawsuits, etc.

    Btw, what, exactly, did Dr. Curry do “outside” of science?

  516. #516 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    Dan (#511): Look at what has happened to Dr. Curry? She was accused, literally, of sleeping with Steyn…

    Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.

  517. #517 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Chris Winters: No, proving Steyn’s comments are right, and opinions, at the same time isn’t a losing strategy; they are multiple strategies to the same goal. Truth is a defense to libel. Thus, if Steyn can prove (it is an affirmative defense, so the burden is on Steyn) that Mann did manipulate data he wins.

    If Steyn can show is comments were his opinion, he also wins. See how that works?

  518. #518 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Christopher Winters (#511) Huh? What facts did I assume? Do you want me to provide a link?

  519. #519 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan…

    Rob Honeycutt #459: Mann’s claims re: the Nobel Prize were fraudulent.

    This is an abundantly idiotic statement.

    1) The IPCC (along with Al Gore) was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their work raising awareness of climate change.
    2) The IPCC is an organization consisting of scientists who do assessment reports on climate change.
    3) Mike Mann was a lead author in working group 1 related to the scientific basis for man-made climate change.

    To say that Mann is “fraudulent” for claiming that he shared the Nobel Prize with the other contributors is beyond insane. “Fraud” has very clear meaning both in law and in common usage and this case doesn’t even come within a mile of that.

  520. #520 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Christopher Winter #512:

    Yep – it is called pleading in the alternative and is quite common.

    If Steyn’s statements are found to be opinion than nothing else matters – because opinion cannot be libel.

    On the other hand, if the Court (or Jury – depending on the litigation stage) finds that the statements are not opinion, we move on to the next issue – which is are they correct.

    Truth is a complete defense to an allegation of libel.

    In other words – if I call you short and you sue me for libel, but I establish (by affirmative defense) that you are in fact short, than I win.

    You cannot libel someone with the truth.

    Whether you think it is a winning strategy or not is not relevant.

    Anybody handling the case would argue both items, sequentially. But we may never get to 2, because Steyn could win on 1 on summary judgment. We will have to wait to see.

  521. #521 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    #511 Dan

    BBD, is it possible that the reason that there are few, if any, published papers challenging MBH is because scientists are afraid to criticize the “consensus” for fear that it will have on their professional, or even personal, lives.

    As dhogaza observes, this is a conspiracy theory and as nonsensical as they generally are. If a scientist has a valid and serious criticism of other work they aren’t going to hurt their career by publishing it. Note ‘valid and serious’.

  522. #522 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan…

    …and legitimate speech will be stifled…

    “Legitimate” speech will NOT have been stifled. Clearly wrong and libelous speech will have been.

    It’s interesting how early on in this conversation you state that, “I have also said I won’t comment on the science, because I am not a scientist.” And yet you go straight at doing exactly this in your diatribe that OA points out @498.

    You clearly have virtually no understanding of the underlying science of climate change, and yet you’re here castigating a respected scientist in defense of someone else who knows absolutely nothing about climate science (Steyn), with confidence enough to call that respected scientist a fraud.

  523. #523 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Again, RickA… “Fraud” is a statement of fact, not an opinion.

  524. #524 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    Dan (#439): As for the Texas couple, I could not see how they were public figures (unless being accused of a crime makes you a public figure per se, which it might in some of the 51 jurisdictions in this country).

    Aaron Larson writes at ExpertLaw: The concept of the “public figure” is broader than celebrities and politicians. A person can become an “involuntary public figure” as the result of publicity, even though that person did not want or invite the public attention. For example, people accused of high profile crimes may be unable to pursue actions for defamation even after their innocence is established, on the basis that the notoriety associated with the case and the accusations against them turned them into involuntary public figures.

    http://www.expertlaw.com/library/personal_injury/defamation.html#3

  525. #525 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    Dan

    Following on from Rob Honeycutt at #522, this is a fair comment.

    When confronted with something awkward, like the mystery of the Missing Literature, you retreat behind the incorrect claim that:

    I am here to discuss the law, not science…

    You cannot maintain this facade in the light of your own words:

    The point is, some things are out of our control. One of them happens to be the climate. Now that you have admitted that, hopefully you can realize not only the futility, but the dire economic consequences that will follow by enacting such insane legislation as “cap and tax,” and other legislation to somehow limit carbon emissions.

    As dhogaza and RH point out, this is a dismissal of the scientific position and I will add that it is an excursion into public policy as well.

    You are going to have to be more consistent than that or things will get awkward.

  526. #526 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    @Dan (#518):

    Yes, I would like you to provide a link to someone who said that Dr. Judith Curry slept with Mark Steyn.

    Note: Saying that someone is “in bed with” another person is usually a colloquialism indicating they share a point of view. It seldom denotes a sexual relationship.

  527. #527 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    Should be:

    Following on from Rob Honeycutt at #522, which is a fair comment.

  528. #528 Christopher Winter
    December 28, 2015

    RickA (#520): If Steyn’s statements are found to be opinion than nothing else matters – because opinion cannot be libel.

    On the other hand, if the Court (or Jury – depending on the litigation stage) finds that the statements are not opinion, we move on to the next issue – which is are they correct.

    OK — I read that as saying he would pursue both at the same time. It’s a wrong interpretation.

    Still, my position remains. I hold that accusations of fraud cannot be protected opinions, and that in this case Steyn has no chance of proving Dr. Mann committed fraud.

  529. #529 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 29, 2015

    Christopher Winter: Still, my position remains. I hold that accusations of fraud cannot be protected opinions, and that in this case Steyn has no chance of proving Dr. Mann committed fraud.”

    The only defense left to the defendants is to show Dr. Mann committed some form of academic fraud. Heh. I wish them luck with that. Oh, wait… no, I don’t.

    As for this message thread, I wish I had the time to read all of the comments. Darn it.

  530. #530 Brainstorms
    December 28, 2015

    I will go on record as saying that BBD #525 is a fair comment.

  531. #531 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Christopher #528:

    I respect your right to your own opinion.

    Mine is different.

    Here is a link to a case which used the word “scam” and was found to be opinion.

    http://www.sequenceinc.com/fraudfiles/2012/10/defamation-and-statements-of-opinion/

    Now – I will admit right up front that this is from a different jurisdiction and does not deal with the use of the word “fraud” (which Steyn did not use anyway – he called the stick graph fraudulent – but no matter).

    Still – you might find it interesting.

  532. #532 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 28, 2015

    #413

    That’s right. There is no pause.
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002/pdf
    https://thingsbreak.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/fosterabraham2015.pdf
    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/its-the-trend-stupid-3/
    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/
    http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16784

    The only way denialists such as yourself have created the illusion of one is by cherry picking your start point so it coincided with a super El Niño, and by then using an insufficient amount of follow-up data. The last 5 years have been the warmest 5 year period on record. 2014 was the warmest year on record and is now being superseded by 2015. According to the Met, 2016 may be another record breaking year.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/17/2016-set-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-globally

    A knowledgable commenter here informed me that as a result of the recent warming, not only is there a clear warming trend from 1998, but that the trend is now statistically significant.

    Trenberth and others were trying to explain where the heat that had not resulted in surface warming had gone. They were fully aware that additional energy had been added to the climate system, and that it would eventually express itself as surface warming. They weren’t referring to a warming pause in the climate system.

    “Although the energy imbalance from 1993 to 2003 could be accounted for, it was not possible to explain the energy imbalance from 2004–2008. This led to the concept of “missing energy” [Trenberth and Fasullo, 2010].”
    Balmaseda et al. 2013

    Focusing on surface warming while ignoring other components of the system is another example of cherry picking.

    My second point (#390) was clear, and could only be misunderstood by a denialist with an severe case of confirmation bias. If you don’t understand the structure – this or that – then you should consider a remedial reading course.

    “Second, even though scientists may not have known where the missing energy was, they knew it was in the climate system. It seems to me that if you want to explain a pause, you have to account for what would cause the cessation of additional energy, or account for a negative forcing that would counteract GHG emissions.”

    In other words, you can’t postulate a “pause” without explaining what’s causing it. Either you have to show that the anthropogenic forcings that previously affected the system no longer do, or you have to point to factors that totally negate that additional energy. So how do you account for your (non-existent) pause?

    Something similar could be said about the extent to which recent temperature increases are anthropogenic or not. If you claim that positive natural forcings have played a significant role, you have to specify what they are. What are they?

    Your “evidence” against my third point is yet another example of your cherry picking. I quoted the following from Balmaseda:

    “In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend.”

    Here’s a quote from the press release you cite – that you chose to leave out:

    “Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up. Some recent studies reporting deep-ocean warming were, in fact, referring to the warming in the upper half of the ocean but below the topmost layer, which ends about 0.4 mile (700 meters) down.”

    As I mentioned, and as you failed to acknowledge, the NASA press release does not rebut the previously demonstrated ocean warming. It refers to a lack of warming below 1,995 meters.

    Finally, your talk of a “false dilemma fallacy” is nonsense.

  533. #533 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan @511…

    BBD, is it possible that the reason that there are few, if any, published papers challenging MBH is because scientists are afraid to criticize the “consensus” for fear that it will have on their professional, or even personal, lives.

    Nope!

    This is how scientists make names for themselves! There have been over 2 dozen millennial reconstructions produced since the original MBH98/99 hockey stick graph came out. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has confirmed the conclusions of MBH.

  534. #534 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    RickA…

    …he called the stick graph fraudulent – but no matter…

    How is it any different if you call Mann a fraud or you call his research a fraud? Same damn thing.

    Same mincing of words happens with the Nobel issue. The IPCC was awarded the Nobel, Mann was a key contributor, but Mann was not a recipient (as if the Nobel committee had awarded the prize to Al Gore and his favorite couch). The IPCC is a collection of individuals, not an inanimate object.

  535. #535 Brainstorms
    December 28, 2015

    Only those on the losing end of an argument mince equivalencies in that way…

    It’s a sign of desperation.

  536. #536 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD #525, that was a different thread, first of all. And, if you look at that thread, in its totality, I said over and over (1) I am not a scientist and not well-versed in any area of science, much less climate science, and (2) the case of mann v steyn brings up legal, not scientific issues.

    Now, I offered my opinion as to the conduct of one side of the climate cartel, expressing my opinion that there are legitimate questions regarding human impact on climate change.

    but, if you read all of that thread, you will see, long before that post, I qualified any statements regarding science as described.

    If you want to talk science, fine. It is just another indication that you, along with most posters, are ignorant about the law. At least I can admit which areas are outside of my expertise.

    RickA and I link to cite after cite after cite of case law, legal dictionaries and scholarly opinion refuting all of the juvenile legal positions taken on this thread by the Mann-boy lovers…

  537. #537 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt — you ignore the fact that the Nobel organization specifically told Mann he cannot rightfully claim he is a Nobel prize winner. also, like my example about Pulitzer’s being awarded to entire news divisions or papers, any individual affiliated with that division or paper cannot claim they won the prize.

    Same with Nobel prizes. It is common logic based on common sense. I am surprised Mann has not faced any significant ramifications. Usually, falsifying credentials is a serious issue in the professional world.

  538. #538 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    For those asking, he is a compilation of the sexist attacks Dr. Curry has suffered at the hands of the climate cartel. Yes, it is from Mark Steyn’s web page, but he links to all quotes. This is more efficient then linking each quote individually (I checked them all out before posting)

    http://www.steynonline.com/7123/the-ugly-misogyny-of-big-climate

  539. #539 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    #534 Dan

    BBD #525, that was a different thread, first of all.

    We can both sit and read this again, as adults in conversation, and ponder the implications for your integrity.

    Now, I offered my opinion as to the conduct of one side of the climate cartel, expressing my opinion that there are legitimate questions regarding human impact on climate change.

    This directly contradicts your previous claim:

    I am here to discuss the law, not science…

    .

    You need to sort this out.

  540. #540 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    For everyone saying that scientists aren’t afraid of challenging the climate cartel, look at Lennart Bentgesson (sp?) case….

    http://www.steynonline.com/6347/the-descent-of-mann

  541. #541 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, #537: Actually, I already did. Perhaps you missed the part where I said that quote WAS. IN. A. DIFFERENT. THREAD. As in, not “here.” In other words, I am here, in this thread, discussing law not science.

    And, even assuming you could read my mind about how I used the term “here” (which, oddly, is what Mann will have to do to win), I clearly qualified that answer with multiple posts in that thread, wherein I acknowledge I am no expert in scientist.

    That quote THERE (i.e., not HERE) was in response to Steyn’s recent testimony before the Senate,

  542. #542 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan… That you use a term like “climate cartel” reveals that you are completely incapable of any rational evaluation of anything related to this issue. That you repeatedly cite Steyn’s blog as a source doubly proves this point.

  543. #543 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    BBD, you are a perfect example of why scientists make horrible attorneys, and really should stay away from interpreting legal issues. You assume, that when I said I was “here,” it could only mean one thing: i.e., I am here on this site. However, “here” can mean multiple things. This thread is directly related to Mann v. Steyn, the legal case (look at the title).

    The other thread was broader, in dealing with Steyn statements about Mann is his book. I.e., two similar, but different topics.

    Also, here could be used in a temporal sense (which it wasn’t, but not that you could know how I meant it).

    See, this is what you guys do with Steyn. He says the word “fraud,” and you automatically assume he is calling mann a fraud, and automatically assume that means intentional, criminal conduct, as opposed to manipulating data

  544. #544 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 28, 2015

    Rob: I cite the sources within Steyn’s cite for convenience. I could have linked to each one individually, but that would have been time consuming. Also, if you read my posts, “climate cartel” does not refer to scientists who believe in man made climate change; rather, it refers to a narrow but powerful subset who seek to silence those with differing opinions.

    But, assuming that was true, why can other people use “denier” and be objective, but I can’t use climate cartel?

  545. #545 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan @353…

    What is the point of awarding an organization of people an award if no one who contributed to the efforts that won the award can state their contribution to winning that award?

  546. #546 RickA
    United States
    December 28, 2015

    Rob #532 asked “How is it any different if you call Mann a fraud or you call his research a fraud? Same damn thing.”

    It is very important.

    Words matter a great deal – especially in a defamation case.

    The court and jury will be analysing what was actually written – not what you think they wrote.

    Here is the actual quote:

    “Michael Mann was the man behind the fraudulent climate-change “hockey-stick” graph, the very ringmaster of the tree-ring circus. ”

    Nobody wrote that Mann was a fraud.

    This is a strawman.

    The actual quote makes it a whole lot easier to see why Steyn’s piece is an opinion.

    And even if it is found to be a statement of fact (which I doubt will be the case), then it will much easier to show that the graph was fraudulent than that Mann is a fraud – so also helpful to use the actual quote.

    Again – we will see.

  547. #547 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    Dan @542…

    Now you’re venturing into conspiracy theory.

  548. #548 BBD
    December 28, 2015

    Dan

    BBD, #537: Actually, I already did. Perhaps you missed the part where I said that quote WAS. IN. A. DIFFERENT. THREAD. As in, not “here.” In other words, I am here, in this thread, discussing law not science.

    A different thread on the same blog. Not a galaxy far away. When you distance yourself from your own statements you need plausible deniability, which you don’t have here.

    You are in a pickle. Stop pretending to be neutral and have the courage of your convictions. Own your views or you will be marked down as dishonest.

  549. #549 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    RickA @544…

    Ah, so according to Steyn the hockey stick graph just appeared as a fraudulent figure without human assistance. Sort of like a virgin birth I guess. How seasonally appropriate.

  550. #550 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Dan:

    “He says the word “fraud,” and you automatically assume he is calling mann a fraud, and automatically assume that means intentional, criminal conduct, as opposed to manipulating data”

    Manipulating data in order to intentionally produce results a scientist knows to be false is scientific misconduct, and can, under certain (though rare) circumstances rise to the level of criminal conduct when US grant funds are involved.

    ” automatically assume that means intentional…” yes, of course the claim is being made that Mann *intentionally* manipulated data in order to produce his fraudlent hocky stick. If it were simply an unintentional error, Steyn, RickA and you wouldn’t be using the word “fraudulent”.

  551. #552 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    RickA:

    “Nobody wrote that Mann was a fraud.”

    Being a fraud is not a crime. Committing fraud can be a crime. Accusing someone of committing fraud is a far more serious charge than accusing someone of being a fraud, which AFAIK has no legal meaning.

  552. #553 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 28, 2015

    Dan,

    “climate cartel”…it refers to a narrow but powerful subset who seek to silence those with differing opinions.

    Oh, brother…

    But, assuming that was true, why can other people use “denier” and be objective, but I can’t use climate cartel?

    Well, because it has a specific, verifiable meaning and symptomology, though it can be abused. The basic ScienceBlogs take on it:
    http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about/

    In your case, you’re either a denier or naive to an extent that strains belief.

  553. #554 wheelism
    December 28, 2015

    Dan-the-attorney’s STUNNING IGNORANCE regarding human influence on the climate could be salved with just a bit of sincere research on the interwebs, but of course his interest in this case is PURELY LEGAL. Dan molests intellectual integrity like Steyn molests climate scientists. (RickA, as the record shows, is simply incompetent.)

  554. #555 Brainstorms
    December 28, 2015

    Dan the Denier is a science denier, and his interest in this case is PURELY SELF-SERVING.

    RickA is a denier who claims to be an EE but shows a stunning lack of technical knowledge, and his interest in this case is PURELY SELF-SERVING.

  555. #556 Rob Honeycutt
    December 28, 2015

    This whole exchange begs the question… Since there have been 2 dozen subsequent hockey stick graphs, does this mean there have 2 dozen fraudulent graphs produced, or does it mean Mann fraudulently came up with the correct result?

  556. #557 Desertphile
    December 29, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt: “This whole exchange begs the question… Since there have been 2 dozen subsequent hockey stick graphs, does this mean there have 2 dozen fraudulent graphs produced, or does it mean Mann fraudulently came up with the correct result?”

    That is merely evidence of how vast the conspiracy is. More than 33 hockey sticks, all showing the same thing, is proof that Dr. Mann is World Dictator.

  557. #558 Brainstorms
    December 28, 2015

    Option 3: Dan the Denier and RickA are f r a u d u l e n t l y claiming that Mann produced a fraudulent graph.

  558. #559 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt:

    “Since there have been 2 dozen subsequent hockey stick graphs, does this mean there have 2 dozen fraudulent graphs produced, or does it mean Mann fraudulently came up with the correct result?”

    No, it simply shows that the Climate Cabal’s dominance over climate science, and in particular the dominance of their Supreme Leader Michael Mann, is so complete that working scientists fall all over themselves to publish papers showing their fealty to their Leader. Because if you dare question Mann, you will be banished, like Judith Curry, to a career of being a mere tenured professor and department chair at a reasonably high-ranking university, with a successful consultancy and decent track record of published papers.

  559. #560 dhogaza
    December 28, 2015

    Sorry, meant “cartel” not “cabal” above.

  560. #561 dean
    December 28, 2015

    It’s interesting to compare the approaches to science denial practiced by rickA, dan, and the other folks here who dismiss climate science, and the approach favored by sn who is a rabid denier of evolution.

    There is an intersection in the approaches as both groups simply deny that the accumulated data and analysis are valid, but they get to that point through two different approaches.

    The climate deniers here argue that the results have to be the result of collusion because of the high levels of agreement from study to study, and they explain that it is due to “scientists not wanting to lose access to money”.

    sn recently argued against evolution by saying there is no observational or experimental evidence, or an explanation of how a “fruit fly could change into, say, a fruit bat”.

    Given the contortions people in both groups are willing to put themselves through on the way to making their “arguments” it is no wonder the climate folks here are willing to repeat the same lines of crap and ignore the evidence. The repeating and ignoring are the easy parts of their game.

  561. #562 Michael Wells
    December 29, 2015

    A question: has Steyn (or CEI or NR) explicitly made the argument in any of their filings that the “fraudulent” talk was merely rhetorical hyperbole? I.e., just an opinion, not a literal claim of fact? It seems to me that their only other choice is to own up to a specific accusation and try to demonstrate that it’s true, or at least that there’s enough evidence backing it that it’s a reasonable supposition. I don’t see how they can do both, though some of Steyn’s defenders on this thread like to slide back and forth between the two. What tack does the defense seem to be taking? Or is it too early in the process for that question? (Yes, I’m lazily asking someone here to summarize for me, rather than wading through documents in legalese.)

    Both those options look problematic to me. If it’s mere hyperbolic opinion, why has Steyn doubled down on the “fraud” stuff with his little book and other public statements? On the other hand, claiming he has strong evidence to back fraud accusations isn’t going to fly in court, in front of a judge and with plenty of time for the overwhelming weight of scientific expertise on the other side.

    But the law moves in mysterious ways, so who knows what my speculations above are missing?

  562. #563 Rob Honeycutt
    December 29, 2015

    Steyn truly is his own worst enemy relative to this case.

  563. #564 RickA
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    Michael #560:

    Here are the affirmative defenses from Steyns Answer and Counterclaims – check out the Sixth defense:

    FIRST AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    114. The Complaint fails to state a claim upon which relief
    may be granted against Defendant Steyn.
    SECOND AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    115. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn are
    true.
    THIRD AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    116. Defendant Steyn did not make the statements at issue
    with “actual malice”. That is, he did not make the
    statements with the knowledge they were false or with
    reckless disregard for their truth or falsity.
    FOURTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    117. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn are
    absolutely protected freedom of speech and of the press
    under the First Amendment to the US Constitution.
    FIFTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    118. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn
    constitute legitimate public debate on a controversial,
    highly charged issue of intense public interest.
    SIXTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    119. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn
    constitute non-actionable opinion and are absolutely
    protected.
    SEVENTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    120. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn are not defamatory, and would not be understood as defamatory by a reasonable reader in light of their immediate and broader social context and setting surrounding the challenged
    statements.
    EIGHTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    121. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn were made in the unique electronic format of the Internet, not print media. By its very nature, the Internet is immediate
    and global with a wider-ranging and less mediated public
    discourse than that of print newspapers, and therefore in
    order to function is entitled to the very broadest
    definition of free expression.
    NINTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    122. This action is barred by the DC Anti-SLAPP Law, DC Code $ 16-5501, et seq.
    TENTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    123. The allegations of Count Six for emotional distress do
    not constitute conduct so shocking and outrageous as to
    exceed all reasonable bounds of decency.
    ELEVENTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    124. Plaintiff’s claim for intentional infliction of
    emotional distress based on Defendant’s constitutionally
    protected speech violates Defendant Steyn’s First Amendment rights and cannot be maintained..
    TWELFTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    125. Plaintiff has suffered no damages.
    THIRTEENTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    126. Plaintiff has said the same or worse as the statements
    at issue about many fellow scientists, statisticians and
    other prominent figures, none of whom has sued him.
    Plaintiff is seeking to impose restraints on freedom of
    speech on political opponents and others who disagree with him that he himself does not abide by.
    FOURTEENTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    127. Defendant Steyn has said substantially the same things or worse about the fraudulence of Plaintiff’s hockey stick for many years in far more prominent publications in
    Australia and other jurisdictions without attracting legal
    action by Dr Mann. It cannot be the intent of the First
    Amendment that it should leave citizens of the United States
    with fewer rights to free speech than those of countries
    that remained within the British Empire.

  564. #565 RickA
    December 29, 2015

    Michael:

    It is to early, by the way.

    First a motion to dismiss for failure to state a claim was made and denied (1st affirmative defense).

    Then ninth defense was used and that motion was denied and appealed.

    That is where we are in the case.

    No discovery has been had (other than Mann’s discovery to Steyn – which he answered). The remaining discovery was stayed pending the appeal.

    The case – despite being over 4 years old – has just started and if the case is not dismissed on appeal, discovery will recommence.

    After some more discovery, it would be likely that summary judgment motions would be heard. If those are not granted, then a trial could start.

    Very early days, unfortunately.

  565. #566 Bernard J.
    December 29, 2015

    Desertphile at #110.

    It’s worth adding Aono’s cherry blossom festival data to the list:

    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/09/09/temperatures-and-projections/comment-page-2/#comment-99680

  566. #567 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    RickA:

    “SIXTH AFFIRMATIVE DEFENSE
    119. The statements at issue made by Defendant Steyn
    constitute non-actionable opinion and are absolutely
    protected.”

    Yes, of course his lawyers will claim this. Just like criminals caught in the act routinely plead “not guilty” …

  567. #568 Christopher Winter
    December 29, 2015

    I’m especially fond of the fourteenth affirmative defense. Paraphrased: “Oh, yeah? Well I’ve been calling your hockey stick fraudulent for years, and in publications far more prominent than the National Review, and you never sued me until now! So there!”

    I’m sure the staff of the National Review are delighted by this…

  568. #569 RickA
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    Christopher #568:

    I thought the last one was funny. A little shot at America.

    Steyn is a funny guy.

  569. #570 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    RickA:

    “I thought the last one was funny. A little shot at America.”

    LIbel cases are far easier to win outside the US, so it’s only funny in the “look at me, I’m ignorant” sense of funny.

  570. #571 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    OA, you keep saying I am naïve or a denier, when I have said, repeatedly, on this thread and on others that I am by no means an expert in scientific matters, have studied any scientific subject since the Clinton Administration. As I do in any med mal case I handle (or products liability, etc)., I leave the science to the scientists. I might have opinions that I offer, but I never hold myself out to be an expert.

    The funny thing is, people are quick to criticize Steyn because he is “not a scientist,” but all you Mann-Boy Lovers have no qualms about claiming you know more about the law then lawyers….

  571. #572 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    RickA — this might have been stated earlier (I didn’t read all the threads), but Affirmative Defenses are often pled simply to preserve the record because they are waived if not pled. For example, I filed an Answer yesterday, and put as an affirmative defense that Plaintiff’s claim is barred by the statute of limitations. Now, in all probability, it wasn’t based on when the records state the incident occur. Does this make me a liar for pleading it?

    Of course not. Sometimes, the records are wrong (I have had that happen plenty of times), and I would rather plead an affirmative defense, learn it doesn’t apply and waive it, then no plead it, turns out it could have applied, and be screwed…

    But, again, I don’t really expect non-lawyers to understand our system, as a lot of our procedural rules are counter-intuitive when observed from an elementary manner

  572. #573 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    BBD, when have I ever claimed to be neutral? I obviously have opinions about the merits of Mann’s case, and the overall conduct of climate scientists towards those who disagree.

    What I don’t have is an emotional attachment to Steyn, or his case, or his position. My primary interest, and yes, I will heartily acknowledge this is self-serving to not only me but to our entire society, is protecting free speech.

    I firmly believe, as does every major media outlet and the ACLU, that if Mann’s case is successful it will be the biggest set-back to free speech in this country in the past 50 years, if not longer.

    I value freedom, especially freedom of thought, ideas and opinions. I shudder at the thought of people using our legal system to silence those who disagree with them. Many of you might disagree with the threat Mann’s case poses, but ponder this: if this case is no big deal to free speech, why is the ACLU, not to mention various medial outlets, involved?

  573. #574 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    Another funny point, which again shows the irony (dare I say, stupidity) of the Mann-Boy Love Association that constitutes most of the members of this blog. Greg Laden accuses Steyn of racism. Again, by Mann’s standards, Laden has subjected himself to a libel suit. After all, calling someone racist can have wide-ranging consequences on careers, reputation, ect.

    But, again, Steyn is not a sissy who runs to the Court for protection. He actually links to Laden’s absurd comments, posts a brief rebuttal, and then sits back and laughs as Laden is exposed for the buffoon that he is…

    Greg, you really did make an arse of yourself with the racist accusations towards Steyn. Steyn absolutely won that in the Court of public opinion. See how easy that is?

  574. #575 dean
    December 29, 2015

    is protecting free speech

    Of course this is not about free speech, no matter how much you ignore that fact.

  575. #576 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    RickA, I have concluded this really comes down to one thing, as demonstrated perfectly by the commentators here: arrogance. They are so arrogant, that they have to call those with different opinions “deniers” or “ignorant.”

    They can’t grasp the concept that reasonable people can look at data, facts, etc, and come to different conclusions. Some people can conclude that (from what I hear) solar activity is causing warming; others say gasses.

    For example, I enjoy the study of history, particularly civil war history. There are many long-standing debates, such as Longstreet at Gettysburg (did he put full effort into fulfilling his duties, especially on the 2nd day, or did he half-ass it because he disagreed with lee’s plan, preferring instead to implement an offensive strategy with defensive tactics). Or, Lee himself. Some view him as a traitor who should have hanged. Others note that he played a huge role in preventing the Confederacy from engaging in guerilla warfare, which would have likely resulted in the “vietnamization” of the U.S.A., and greatly impeded the ability of this country to develop into the world’s superpower a few generations later.

    I am no scientist, but isn’t there enough wiggle room for good people to disagree. In my brief reading, I thought I heard something about oceanic temperatures being warmer, which could explain the severe winters. Others might say the severe winters show warming has slowed or is no longer existent.

    Rick addressed this earlier, but I am shocked the inability of scientists to engage in civil debate and resort to name calling, then sue when someone calls them a name…

  576. #577 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    Dean, if this is not about free speech, please answer, just once, why the ACLU, NYT, NBC, ABC, etc., have all filed amicus briefs? At the same time, no scientific organizations, that I am aware of, have availed themselves to doing the same?

    Why would media organizations and the ACLU trouble themselves with a scientific matter. It is absolutely about free speech. the pleadings make that clear.

  577. #578 Brainstorms
    December 29, 2015

    What I don’t have is an emotional attachment to Steyn, or his case, or his position.

    (dare I say, stupidity) of the Mann-Boy Love Association

    Dan the Denier, you are such an obvious liar.

  578. #579 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 29, 2015

    How, Brainstorms? What have I said that is a lie? Just one fact that I have lied about. I did say I have an emotional attachment to free speech, but that is much larger then Steyn. If steyn’s speech wasn’t protected, under our current state of law, I would be the first to acknowledge it…

  579. #580 RickA
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    Dan #579:

    Some of the posters here like to call names.

    I am used to it and just ignore it.

    The name calling usually starts when you are winning the argument – so it is really a compliment.\

    I certainly don’t think you have lied.

  580. #581 dean
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    This is about an accusation of fraud – an accusation, without substance, that a scientist committed fraud in his research. It is an accusation that is not supported by the work of other scientists: the supposedly fraudulent item in question has been supported numerous times, while the arguments against it have been shown to be vacuous.

    It’s clear, despite your protests, that you willingly dismiss the science behind climate change, and that that is the driving force behind your “free speech” crusade.

  581. #582 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 29, 2015

    OA, you keep saying I am naïve or a denier, when I have said, repeatedly, on this thread and on others that I am by no means an expert in scientific matters, have studied any scientific subject since the Clinton Administration. As I do in any med mal case I handle (or products liability, etc)., I leave the science to the scientists. I might have opinions that I offer, but I never hold myself out to be an expert.

    Yeah, I get that. Do you get why some of your comments here might be considered trolling? Do you think that might account, at least in part, for the reception you’re getting here?

    The funny thing is, people are quick to criticize Steyn because he is “not a scientist,”

    No.

    …but all you Mann-Boy Lovers…

    Tsk, Tsk…

    have no qualms about claiming you know more about the law then lawyers….

    I don’t, and as I’ve said before I’m not especially interested in what amounts to handicapping the horse race.

    If it helps, there’s more to this conversation than the law. You’ve essentially wandered into a foreign country here, unaware of the issues that shape and inform what is being discussed.

  582. #583 RickA
    December 29, 2015

    Dan #576:

    Yep.

    Greg is a scientist.

    I have no idea if the other posters here are scientists (although they certainly could be).

    Greg is very polite, although does like to use the term “denier”.

    I have tried to get the posters here to realize this is name calling, but have not had very much success yet.

    I enjoy posting here about 2nd amendment issues and global warming issues, but often engage when Greg gets into legal issues.

    I have often wondered at the age of several of the posters (like brainstorms). But of course have no idea of the age of any of the posters.

    Still – fun site.

  583. #584 dean
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    I have tried to get the posters here to realize this is name calling, but have not had very much success yet.

    “Denier” is a perfectly good word to use when describing someone who denies the science behind and impact of climate change.

  584. #585 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 29, 2015

    dean: ““Denier” is a perfectly good word to use when describing someone who denies the science behind and impact of climate change.”

    If deniers dislike the word “denier,” perhaps they will let everyone know what other word they prefer. I have asked dozens of deniers that question, and I have yet to receive any answer.

  585. #586 Rob Honeycutt
    December 29, 2015

    Dan…

    How about you give us some examples of what would constitute libel.

  586. #587 Brainstorms
    December 29, 2015

    RickA #583:

    There is nothing impolite about the term “denier”. It is purely descriptive.

    You do not have some inalienable right to contradict Reality and then take umbrage at being labeled a “denier” for doing so.

    Reject Reality as being revealed by Science at your own risk. Don’t expect anyone here to support you in doing so.

    As famously pointed out by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Every man has a right to his own opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.”

  587. #588 RickA
    United States
    December 29, 2015

    Rob #585:

    Here is an example from the cite I linked to several times before:

    “John stole $100 from the corner store last week.”

    If John did not steal 100 from the corner store last week, this is defamatory.

    To give an example of what would not be defamatory – “John smells bad.” This is an opinion and cannot be defamatory.

  588. #589 Chris O'Neill
    December 29, 2015

    RickA:

    Greg is very polite, although does like to use the term “denier”.

    Perhaps that’s because you keep making the same unjustified claim over and over again, even though it is pointed out to you that you have no justification for making such claims. That type of behaviour qualifies you as being a denier.

  589. #590 RickA
    December 29, 2015

    Rob:

    Here is the site:

    http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/what-defamatory-statement

    If you click on the State Law: Defamation link on this page, you can go to the DC page for more information on defamation in the district of columbia (where the Mann case is being heard).

  590. #591 Chris O'Neill
    December 29, 2015

    More than 33 hockey sticks, all showing the same thing, is proof that Dr. Mann is World Dictator.

    The denialists go quiet at this point.

  591. #592 Rob Honeycutt
    December 29, 2015

    RickA…

    Why is…

    “John stole $100 from the corner store last week.”

    any different from…

    “Mann produced fraudulent science.”

    ?

  592. #593 Chris O'Neill
    December 29, 2015

    The only way denialists such as yourself have created the illusion of one is by cherry picking your start point so it coincided with a super El Niño, and by then using an insufficient amount of follow-up data.

    And also, while it lasted, cherry picking your end point with a very strong and unusual pair of La Nina years, 2011/2012.

    Those days are over now, not that it changes anything denialists say.

  593. #594 Rob Honeycutt
    December 29, 2015

    RickA…

    You’ve just exactly explained why Mann is suing and why his lawyer is telling him he has a good case.

    Steyn said Mann’s work was fraudulent. That is not the same as saying Mann is a crappy scientist or some other opinion-based statement. Steyn called his work fraudulent, and that is a statement of fact that can be proven true or false. The overwhelming body of scientific research is very clear that Mann’s work is NOT fraudulent.

  594. #595 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    “Mann-Boy Love Association”

    homophobic slur meant to mark yourself as superior noted …

    And RickA and Dan whine about name-calling by others …

    RickA:

    “I have often wondered at the age of several of the posters”.

    Yeah, Dan has exposed himself of having the maturity of a junior high school bully.

  595. #596 Brainstorms
    December 29, 2015

    Note how long Dan tried to push the innocent, insouciant, “I’m-only-interested-in-the-legal-aspects” act — before unmasking himself as being hostile to science and what it’s telling mankind — and, potentially, its governmental policy-makers.

  596. #597 Brainstorms
    December 29, 2015

    ::gasp!:: You mean… The deniers DENIED you an answer???

  597. #598 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms: “::gasp!:: You mean… The deniers DENIED you an answer???”

    I deny having received an answer.

    This morning a denier called me “a globist,” meaning (I assume) my sinister political ideology has caused me to insist Earth is a globe, not a disk. Deniers love to make up imaginary words: it is called “language loading.”

    “Denier” and “Denialist” are perfectly good, correct words to describe people who deny observed reality. If deniers who reject the evidence for human-caused climate change object to the words, they may step forward and explain why.

  598. #599 Bernard J.
    December 29, 2015

    I am no scientist, but isn’t there enough wiggle room for good people to disagree. In my brief reading, I thought I heard something about oceanic temperatures being warmer, which could explain the severe winters. Others might say the severe winters show warming has slowed or is no longer existent.

    If your understanding of the science is as poor as you have claimed it to be, here and previously, you should not be speculating on matters where an understanding of the science is crucial to the outcome, whether that outcome is a legal one or a policy one. Essentially you are relying on a ‘broken watch is right twice a day’ strategy.

    And really, you “thought you heard”?! I’d like my legal councel to be more on top of her or his backgrounding than vague memories and speculative extrapolation from uncertain recollections.

    Further, postulating on what undefined “others might say” is a fatuous logical fallacy*`. As you are someone with a legal background I am sure that you are all over a working knowledge of the large variety of fallacious logic, as you would toil assiduously to avoid any such in all councel that you provide, so you should be able to identify which fallacy it is that escaped your necessary professional high standards.

    [* Unless of course one desires to lead an audience away from objective fact. Then is becomes a rhetorical tool – but still a fallacious one…

    ` It actually qualifies as at least three different logical fallacies. Bonus points if you can list three.]

  599. #600 Rob Honeycutt
    December 29, 2015

    Personally, I try to use the term “denier” in a very specific context, related to people who clearly reject the well established scientific aspects of climate change.

    Both Dan and Rick have each made comments here in this thread that show they have a very limited knowledge of the body of research and choose to reject the body of scientific research.

  600. #601 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt: “Personally, I try to use the term “denier” in a very specific context, related to people who clearly reject the well established scientific aspects of climate change.

    Both Dan and Rick have each made comments here in this thread that show they have a very limited knowledge of the body of research and choose to reject the body of scientific research.”

    There are two species in general: deniers and disavowers. Denialism is a mental health care issue, even though it is normal for humans to believe falsehoods and at the same time know they are false while they believe they are true. Disavowers publicly deny observed reality when they know their denial is false. “Hey I’m A Lawyer Really I am Dan” and “RickA” both show denialist behavior. Senator Inhof is a fine example of disavowal.

  601. #602 Brainstorms
    December 29, 2015

    Unless of course one desires to lead an audience away from objective fact. Then is becomes a rhetorical tool – but still a fallacious one…

    Bernard, what do you call it when it’s the case where one desires to lead oneself away from objective fact?

    This is what some deniers are doing. And they show up on blogs like this looking for confirmation that, “It’s okay to fool myself, right? Right?”

  602. #603 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms: Bernard, what do you call it when it’s the case where one desires to lead oneself away from objective fact?”

    Religion.

  603. #604 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    “RickA, I have concluded this really comes down to one thing, as demonstrated perfectly by the commentators here: arrogance. They are so arrogant, that they have to call those with different opinions “deniers” or “ignorant.”

    They can’t grasp the concept that reasonable people can look at data, facts, etc, and come to different conclusions. Some people can conclude that (from what I hear) solar activity is causing warming;”

    If you were testifying in a court of law, any competent lawyer would rip you to bits. Because if you examine the data, solar activity can’t be causing the observed warming of recent decades.

    Your first mistake, from a debate point of view, was to admit that the data exists.

    Because now I get to ask you how declining solar activity causes increased temps now, while in the past declining solar activity caused decreased temps …

    http://skepticalscience.com//pics/TvsTSI.png

  604. #605 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    “They can’t grasp the concept that reasonable people can look at data, facts, etc, and come to different conclusions.”

    And, this is not an absolute truth. There are many situations in which reasonable people, looking at data, can NOT come to different conclusions. The physics underlying climate science happens to be one, and in its most basic form, can be tested if you choose …

    by taking the CO2 laser challenge.

  605. #606 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    “They can’t grasp the concept that reasonable people can look at data, facts, etc, and come to different conclusions.”

    Your comment is idiocy because graspping the concept that reasonable people can look at data, facts etc and reach different conclusions IN SOME CASES does not imply that reasonable people can do so IN ALL CASES.

    I would say that you and RickA suffer from an inablity to grasp the concept that data, facts, etc can, in many cases but not all, lead to only one reasonable conclusion. This is a weaker assertion than yours, but is superior in that it is true.

  606. #607 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    Given “Mann-Boy Love Association” …

    If I were to choose to lower myself to your level, I could riff on Steyn’s name and a whole variety of sexual innuendo commonly associated with male homosexual behavior, but I will not do so.

    Fortunately I’ve been fortunate enough in life to know some very good lawyers both professionally and personally, so I won’t claim that you reflect poorly on the profession as a whole. You simply reflect poorly on yourself.

    A first-class asshat, intentionally ignorant of science, and hardy-har-har choosing to try to denigrate those who understand science by implying that those that do are pediphiles.

    Right up there with the sandusky comparisions with Mann.

  607. #608 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    RickA, of course, will complain that I’m being impolite, and that Dan oh-so-poliitely said “Mann-Boy Love Association”. That Dan is inbounds, while those who point out that RickA denies science (despite that latter being a statement of fact, rather than a slur).

    Obviously, asshats like these want to see an asshat like Steyn prevail.

  608. #609 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    “those who point out that RickA denies science” are out-of-bounds, of course …

  609. #610 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Dan:

    “Some people can conclude that (from what I hear) solar activity is causing warming”

    And none of us here are fooled by your … “from what I hear” … disclaimer. As a lawyer, apparently you’ve been trained to believe that lying is fine as long as you’re not under oath and answering a question that is material to the case at hand.

  610. #611 Michael Wells
    December 29, 2015

    Thanks for the clarifications on the status of the legal arguments, Dan and RickA – I figured there were counter-intuitive arcana involved there.

    Sadly, I can’t say much for the rest of your contributions. Others with more knowledge of the science, and the history of the players, than myself or you are taking them apart handily, so I’ll leave them to it.

    But I will reiterate that it seems to me the defendants and their lawyers are going to have to pick one of those arguments to actually argue at trial, if it comes to that. “This was just a hyperbolic statement of opinion, not a literal accusation of fraud” strikes me as marginally the most likely to succeed, but it doesn’t look like Steyn, at least, is interested in saying any such thing. If he plans to argue that he has enough evidence to back up accusations of fraud, he’s going to have a tough time of it.

  611. #612 dhogaza
    December 29, 2015

    Michael Wells:

    “Thanks for the clarifications on the status of the legal arguments”

    Note that Mann’s lawyers might be able to contribute even more clarifications, if they were to bother showing up.

    Also note that RickA’s and Dan’s arguments would seem to hinge on a notion that Mann is either going forward with incompetent legal representation, or has competent legal representation and is ignoring their advice. The evidence thus far, though, is that only one side has had their legal counsel choose to end their representation of their client, and it’s not Mann …

  612. #613 Bernard J.
    December 29, 2015

    Bernard, what do you call it when it’s the case where one desires to lead oneself away from objective fact?

    I’d call that willful self-delusion.

  613. #614 Marco
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, you mention the case of Philippe Verdier, but I wonder whether you even remotely considered how extremely appropriate it is that he was taken off the air as a weather forecaster. That’s right: extremely appropriate. What the state-owned France 2 had here was one of its front figures making large claims about a field of science *in which he has no discernable knowledge*, and becoming politically active by complaining to and *about* the president and politicians in general as deliberately fooling the people.

    By his complaints about a scientific field that is not his own, he significantly reduced his credibility. People seeing him present the weather on tv would wonder whether to believe him, since he apparently is so confidently wrong about a somewhat related science. Add his willful political posturing, and his credibility as an objective front figure for the weather was completely destroyed. Keeping him on as a weather forecaster would hurt France 2 more than keeping him on.

    Hilariously, he then was hired by Russia Today to cover COP21…if people think Fox is bad, they should try following RT for a while.

  614. #615 Marco
    December 30, 2015

    Dan also reminds us of Lennart Bengtsson. Bengtsson is, and I have no problem repeating this right to his face, an idiot. He made the *political* decision to join the GWPF, a known political thinktank with a clear ideological bias…and then gets all upset when one(!) scientist tells him he does not want to work with him anymore and others ask him why he joins such a political organization.

    Of course, people in Sweden knew Bengtsson had gone down the road of politicization for some time already, and considered his supposed surprise at the reaction as hypocritical at best.

  615. #616 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    #573 Dan

    BBD, when have I ever claimed to be neutral?

    When you lied about only being here on this blog (no more childish evasions about threads, please) to discuss the law.

    I obviously have opinions about the merits of Mann’s case, and the overall conduct of climate scientists towards those who disagree.

    As has been pointed out, the problem here is that your opinions are incorrect and derive from science denial and political prior commitment to the status quo wrt public policy.

    I value freedom, especially freedom of thought, ideas and opinions. I shudder at the thought of people using our legal system to silence those who disagree with them.

    The rest of us shudder at the thought that US libel law is so problematic that it is powerless to prosecute an obvious libel forming part of an organised political smear campaign aimed at delegitimising a prominent climate scientist.

    You can only confuse this with using the legal system to silence dissent if you are a science denier and political ideologue yourself, which we have already established is the case with you.

    This being the case, you are in no position at all to accuse others here of arrogance.

  616. #617 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #576
    “In my brief reading, I thought I heard…”

    In my brief reading I’ve learned that the medieval warming was caused by the sudden proliferation of fire breathing dragons, whose strange interspecies sexual predilections led to their being hunted by “valiant” knights, who didn’t give a damn about biodiversity. Their precipitous decline then led to the little ice age. Modern warming can, perhaps, be explained by the energy expended by Santa Claus and his reindeer. Their perspiration adds moisture to the air. Makes sense to me.

  617. #618 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 30, 2015

    #576 “In my brief reading, I thought I heard….”

    “… that Earth is a flat disk.” Hey, I read that also.

    cosmicomics: In my brief reading I’ve learned that the medieval warming was caused by the sudden proliferation of fire breathing dragons, whose strange interspecies sexual predilections led to their being hunted by “valiant” knights, who didn’t give a damn about biodiversity. Their precipitous decline then led to the little ice age. Modern warming can, perhaps, be explained by the energy expended by Santa Claus and his reindeer. Their perspiration adds moisture to the air. Makes sense to me.

    Unicorns, of course, get all the hot maidens.

  618. #619 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    In defense of Steyn, a strong case can be made that he’s an idiot. The link that Dan provided in #537 clearly shows that Steyn wouldn’t recognize a HS if he saw one. Steyn’s post is illustrated with the tattooed arm of a woman. According to Steyn:

    “~Michael E Mann Tweeted the photograph at top right from a female admirer, who has had his hockey stick tattooed on her arm.”

    However, the tattoo didn’t show Mann’s HS, but the Keeling curve.

    Despite his inability to recognize the original HS, Steyn evidently feels he’s qualified to evaluate those that followed:

    I [David Appell] wonder if Steyn has examined any of the other evidence for the hockey stick, some derived with independent mathematical techniques. Like Marcott et al Science 2013, PAGES 2k, or Tingley and Huybers.
    I expect he hasn’t. If not, why not?

    Yes, why not, Steyn? Ha! You’ve got no answer to that, have you?
    In fact, there’s an entire section on other, supposedly “independent” hockey sticks, starting at page 171, and I devote pages 185-190 to Marcott et al.”

    And he still doesn’t know what a HS looks like!

  619. #620 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #511
    “Look at what has happened to Dr. Curry? She was accused, literally, of sleeping with Steyn…”

    Not quite:

    “Instead of apologizing for misleading Appell, that blogger posted this comment on Appell’s site:
    Curry, however, is a supposed scientist who has (perhaps) literally gotten into bed with slime like Steyn.
    (Quote from Dan’s link to Steyn, #537)
    Dan has confirmation bias problems with understanding what he reads.

    “For those asking, he [sic] is a compilation of the sexist attacks Dr. Curry has suffered at the hands of the climate cartel. Yes, it is from Mark Steyn’s web page, but he links to all quotes. This is more efficient then linking each quote individually (I checked them all out before posting)”

    Steyn links to a denialist blogger who has no understanding of context and who only sees what s/he wants to see.

  620. #621 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #535
    “BBD #525, that was a different thread, first of all. And, if you look at that thread, in its totality, I said over and over (1) I am not a scientist and not well-versed in any area of science, much less climate science, and (2) the case of mann v steyn brings up legal, not scientific issues.”
    If you look at my comments in totality, you’ll find that I’m against rape, and beside, the rape occurred in Texas and right now I’m in Oklahoma.
    Any pretensions Dan has to legal objectivity are negated by his own disingenuousness and his eagerness to suck up whatever shit flows from Steyn’s ass, including the term “Mannboys/Mann-Boy Lovers #571).” Perhaps Dan would like to elaborate on what that term means? And it’s comforting to know that Steyn isn’t a sissy (#574). Like dhogaza, I appreciate your wisdom and maturity.
    “What I don’t have is an emotional attachment to Steyn, or his case, or his position.” #573
    Bullshit.
    “My primary interest, and yes, I will heartily acknowledge this is self-serving to not only me but to our entire society, is protecting free speech.”
    But not when science denying scientists are criticized or mocked.

  621. #622 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #539
    “For everyone saying that scientists aren’t afraid of challenging the climate cartel, look at Lennart Bentgesson (sp?) case….”
    http://uppsalainitiativet.blogspot.dk/2014/05/lennart-bengtsson-and-his-media-gambit.html
    (Uppsalainitiativet has a number of posts in Swedish, among others,
    http://uppsalainitiativet.blogspot.dk/2014/05/om-lennart-bengtssons-beklammande-fard.html, which also has been noticed by Stoat and Eli Rabbett)

    “Thing is, Lennart Bengtsson, or whoever wrote his letter of resignation, is blaming it on scientists behaving well instead of accepting it’s he who behaved badly – or had very poor judgement. He reckons he was pressured to leave and complained the pressure was affecting his health, poor chap. He should try walking a mile in the shoes of Phil Jones or Michael Mann or James Hansen or Ben Santer. That’d toughen him up.”
    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/05/mccarthyism-my-foot-stoat-has-story.html

    Scientists who deny scientific evidence can’t complain if they’re mocked.

  622. #623 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #574
    “Another funny point, which again shows the irony (dare I say, stupidity) of the Mann-Boy Love Association that constitutes most of the members of this blog. Greg Laden accuses Steyn of racism. Again, by Mann’s standards, Laden has subjected himself to a libel suit. After all, calling someone racist can have wide-ranging consequences on careers, reputation, ect.”

    I again refer to Dan’s link to Steyn’s webpage #537. There one can immediately see that Steyn both writes and endorses Islamophobic books, one of which was written by the Dutch politician Geert Wilders:

    “Wilders has campaigned to stop what he views as the “Islamisation of the Netherlands”. He has compared the Quran to Mein Kampf and has campaigned to have the book banned in the Netherlands.[6][7][8] He advocates ending immigration from Muslim countries,[6][9] and supports banning the construction of new mosques.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Wilders

  623. #624 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #502
    “Now we have evidence of a pause.”

    No we don’t. Disinformation from denialists and Republican politicians.
    (See the first part of #531)

  624. #625 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Cosmic comics, I cited to the sources within Steyn’s website, instead of each link individually for time purposes. Yes, I read Steyn’s work, and the opinions of his detractors. As for his “islamophobic” books, again have you read them? Steyn doesn’t criticize muslims per se, only those muslims who engage “Honor Crimes” such as fathers killing daughters who refuse arranged marriages, female genital mutilation, killing victims of rape, etc.

    Writing that such activities, committed as whole over certain sects of islam, is wrong, then that says more about you then about Steyn, and would certainly explain the misogyny people like Dr. Curry have had to endure at the hands of the Mann-boy lovers

  625. #626 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Cosmic, #620. The term “Mann-boy lovers” is a joke, calm down. It is meant to refer to Dr. Mann, and his “boys,” i.e., colleagues, and those who support Mann, et. al to the point of absurdity. Lighten up, Francis…

    And, I don’t have nose stuck up Steyn’s….I think he is a talented writer, with a lot of interesting views on current political issues. Some I agree with; some I disagree with. I happen to agree with him, for example, that western society is committing societal suicide via declining birth rates. I also agree that the actions of certain sects of hard-core muslims, such as honor killings is wrong. I happen to disagree with him on immigration, for example, as I believe that we are a nation made up of immigrants, and a path to citizenship is the right solution (i.e., some equivalent of an modern-day Ellis Island on the southern border).

    I happen to have married an immigrant from the Philippines, and see the value that immigrants from all over the world can bring economically, socially, etc…

  626. #627 RickA
    United States
    December 30, 2015

    Rob #593:

    While I respect your opinion that what Steyn said is a statement of fact – it is still just an opinion.

    You don’t get to decide this question – that is left for the Judge (if decided on summary judgment) or the jury (if decided at trial).

    My opinion is not the same as yours – and that is ok.

  627. #628 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    Dan:

    “The term “Mann-boy lovers” is a joke”

    It’s an offensive joke worthy of a locker room full of 13 year-old boys. It speaks to your lack of maturity, and your general all-around asshattedness.

    “I happen to have married an immigrant from the Philippines”

    How much did you pay for her, and was it via the internet or an old-fashioned mail-order bride service?

  628. #629 SteveP
    Watcher Point
    December 30, 2015

    Reading the Mann complaint one is struck by the venomous nature of, and disregard for any sort of civility in the writings of Steyn, Simberg, National Review, CEI, and Lowry. I take this as a sign of the times, showing how Science and Scientists are treated with utter contempt since the time of Reagan. William F. Buckley Jr., the National Review founder, was often depicted in caricature as a charming but fork tongued snake, but he was no Luddite in terms of technology or science, which is, I believe what this whole battle boils down to – a battle between people using the Constitution of the United States of America to wipe their asses with ( all the while singing its praises) , and scientists trying to do the job of contributing to the preservation of mankind.

    I believe that ol’ Bill Buckley was distressed, at the end of his life, by the monster he had created , and indeed he should have been.

    May Nature and Nature’s God bless Michael Mann and give him fortitude as he sallies forth into the crap shoot mine field which is our modern system of jurisprudence. I think that he has a great case and I hope that he wins. Amen.

  629. #630 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, #613, and this is where we disagree. And you make my point, perfectly, by referring to anyone (even one, like me, who makes no claims to be an expert and is perfectly willing to accept the opposite position if it turns out to be correct. As I have said, over and over, when scientists try to silence via litigation their opponents, they lose credibility).

    And keep referring to a single post from weeks ago, without reading any of my other posts in that blog, in which I repeatedly state I am not well-versed in climate science, and any opinions I have not set in stone, to say the least (in other words, unlike most posters here, I am smart enough to know what I don’t know, and can admit it).

    Lastly ,Desertphile, I disclosed my public identity in that other thread, proving I am indeed a lawyer. Just because you disagree with my legal analysis (which isn’t even my analysis, it is based Professor Garber, and other 1st Amendment scholars, opinions) doesn’t change that fact….

  630. #631 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, #613, it is a fair comment to say that you all “shudder” at the thought of U.S. libel law, and think it should be changed. However ,the fact remains the law is what it is. After 600 posts, I do not recall seeing one post from a 1st Amendment legal scholar saying Mann has anything other then an very difficult case. And the reason is simple: Mann has a difficult case because he can’t prove malice, and Steyn’s piece was opinion, which enjoys absolute protection.

    I defer to the scientists regarding scientific issues. I can at least point to some scientists, like Dr. Curry, to back up my position. But you and your ilk think spout of legal non-sense with no authority to back it up…

  631. #632 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Dhog, #627, it is funny that you accuse me of lack of maturity for using literary twist on Dr. Mann’s name, yet you accuse my wife of being a mail order bride? Frankly, I don’t care what you think of her, as she has lived in this country for a decade before I met her and became a citizen before I met her.

    Should I sue you for libel, now? Never mind…I am not a sissy like Dr. Mann

  632. #633 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Dhog, #609, your post about Steyn’s prior representation is inaccurate. Steyn parted ways with his prior counsel because Steyn took Mann at his word when Mann said he wants a trial, and wanted to forgo the Anti-Slapp appeal the other defendants filed. He therefore found new counsel (personally, I think Steyn erred in not pursuing the anti-slap appeal).

    Also, you statement that Mann’s lawyer pursing litigation show Mann has a decent case is misguided. As a lawyer, I can tell you that parties often file lawsuits for reasons other then an ultimate court victory. Sometimes it is to stall for time, sometimes some other remedy, like a retraction, is sought. Sometimes a party seeks to enter a war of financial attrition.

    It is not right that these suits happen, but they do. And, because the law is a self-regulating profession, it is very difficult to hold an attorney accountable for filing a frivolous lawsuit pursuant to FCRP 11.

    As stated, Mann’s objective, in my opinion, is to file suit hoping the Defendants will ultimately get tired out financially or emotionally with the litigation process. I find it hard to believe he has any real desire to proceed to trial, because he has that opportunity with Steyn. Steyn offered to bifurcate his case from the other defendants, proceed with discovery and move on.

  633. #634 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Bernard J, #598 — since when did I claim to be litigating science matters. To clarify, for BBD’s sake as well, what I probably should have said is I am here to discuss legal issues only from the a knowledgeable standpoint. I never claimed, and do not claim, knowledge regarding science.

    However, I have, and claim, legal knowledge and can tell you, as all lawyers will, that Mann v. Steyn is not an issue of science, it is an issue of law. In other words, Steyn’s scientific opinions can be totally wrong (and maybe they are, I have no idea) yet he will still succeed legally as long has he honestly and reasonably believed them at the time of his blog post. See Professor Garber’s article, linked to above.

    And, in cases in which I litigate that are tangentially related to science (i.e., med mal) it is not me setting forth my client’s position. We hire experts for that. IN fact, the court would strike any statements I make in closing that were not first proffered by an expert

  634. #635 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt, #580: I would be happy to provide examples of what constitutes libel. First, we need to clarify: is the Plaintiff a public person or not? If the plaintiff is not classified as a public person, the malice standard does not apply, thus greatly enhancing the Plaintiff’s case. In fact, if Mann were not a public figure, I would not longer believe he had a weak case; I would say he had a decent case, at worse, and perhaps a strong or very good case.

    With public figures, the closes example I can think of what be Dan Rather’s report regarding President Bush and his national guard service, although even this probably fails to meet the requirement. Remember, in a legal context, “malice” doesn’t mean ill-will or mean-spirited; rather, Malice means “with knowledge of falsity” or “without reasonable grounds to believe the truthfulness” of a statement.

    Applying that to Rather’s case, you could argue that, because CBS hired experts, none of whom would verify the legitimacy of the documents, his reliance constituted “malice” because he knew, or at least should have known, the statements were false. But, here is the kicker: Rather can still say, and did say, that he believed Bush shirked his duty, regardless of the documents. How could Bush ever prove that is not true?

    To sum up, pretty much the only way, in my mind, a public figure could win a libel case is if an email, tape recording, etc., exists when the Defendant admits he knew the statement was false, but made it anyway. It is very difficult to prove what someone thinks is true…

  635. #636 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt, #593: In that post, you actually state why Mann has a tough case. You say the “overwhelming” majority of scientists conclude Mann’s work is not fraudulent. You didn’t say “all” scientists, or every single scientist.

    Even if a small number of scientists believe Mann is a fraud, Steyn, as a lay person, is free to side with the minority. Science, after all, isn’t decided by majority rule….

  636. #637 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan the Deceiver and RickA both believe that “reasonable grounds to believe the truthfulness of a statement” is achieved by nothing more than “because I want it to be true”.

    Put that before a jury.

  637. #638 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, /sigh/ that is not at all what either of us mean be reasonable grounds. First, it depends on the context. A layperson relying on an expert, even if that expert is in the minority, will almost always be reasonable. It depends on the information available to the Defendant.

    For example, Rick gave used the “John stole $100 from the store last week.” If the Defendant knew that John was out of town, or in the hospital, or at work at the time the theft occurred, malice exists. A trickier situation applies if it is common knowledge, but not universal, that John wasn’t there for example, what if it was in the news that John was in a car-accident and hospitalized? How do you prove the Defendant read the news? (This example assumes, of course, that John is a public person and that standard applies)

  638. #639 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, severally:

    Cosmic, #620. The term “Mann-boy lovers” is a joke, calm down. It is meant to refer to Dr. Mann, and his “boys,” i.e., colleagues, and those who support Mann, et. al to the point of absurdity. Lighten up, Francis…

    The phrase is offensive, homophobic and used by you to irritate. Please stop.

    BBD, #613, and this is where we disagree. And you make my point, perfectly, by referring to anyone (even one, like me, who makes no claims to be an expert and is perfectly willing to accept the opposite position if it turns out to be correct.

    This level of intellectual dishonesty is contemptible. If you want to be taken seriously, then have the moral courage to own your views and stop hiding behind childish rhetoric. Even if there will be consequences (see below).

    But you and your ilk think spout of legal non-sense with no authority to back it up…

    I have repeatedly reminded you that *I* don’t dispute that it will be difficult to prove actual malice in this case. I would appreciate it if you stopped putting words in my mouth.

    I never claimed, and do not claim, knowledge regarding science.

    The same lie, over and over again. You claim that the science is WRONG which implicitly requires that you understand it. If you don’t understand it then you should immediately cease your politically motivated science denial and join other non-experts in accepting the expert scientific consensus.

  639. #640 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Remember, in a legal context, “malice” doesn’t mean ill-will or mean-spirited; rather, Malice means “with knowledge of falsity” or “without reasonable grounds to believe the truthfulness” of a statement.

    Agreed (re US libel law and actual malice). I suspect that some commenters here are more focused on the second definition, that of reckless disregard for the truth. That may not be as easy for Steyn to defend as you imagine, since the evidence that he is wrong about Mann is difficult to refute.

    Consider your own growing problems here. Once you are compelled to admit that you are denying the scientific evidence you are exposed as exhibiting a reckless disregard for the truth.

  640. #641 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 30, 2015

    Just a general comment: “Teaching the controversy” instead of the science is a known propaganda FUD ploy.

    And for Dan, not all opinions are equal. This is not a point of law, but it is something competent council ought to be able to access, for instance, in expert testimony. What I’m hearing from you is that you have no judgement on the matter and no interest in even acquiring sufficient meta-literacy to even begin to form a reliable opinion of your own, preferring instead to let Steyn tell you what’s what because [insert platitude here]. But, you assure us, you can and will change your opinion, presumably when Steyn tells you it’s OK to do so– which it’s safe to say, will be never.

  641. #642 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    Dan:

    “Dhog, #627, it is funny that you accuse me of lack of maturity for using literary twist on Dr. Mann’s name, yet you accuse my wife of being a mail order bride?”

    Apparently she’s not, but when did you stop beating her?

    There’s no reason to act mature around you. That’s the point. Act like a 13 year-old bully, and I’ll respond accordingly.

    Blindly ignorant of science. Thinks that homophobic slurs are funny. Writes a stream of insulting posts while professing nothing other than a detatched analytical interest in the case. Contradictory posts point to either a weak mind or a pathological need to lie.

    I think that pretty much sums up Dan.

  642. #643 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    BBD:

    “I suspect that some commenters here are more focused on the second definition, that of reckless disregard for the truth. That may not be as easy for Steyn to defend as you imagine, since the evidence that he is wrong about Mann is difficult to refute.”

    Correct.

  643. #644 dean
    United States
    December 30, 2015

    for example, that western society is committing societal suicide via declining birth rates.

    Is anyone surprised that dan is an asshole about things other than climate change?

  644. #645 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 30, 2015

    dean: “Is anyone surprised that dan is an asshole about things other than climate change?”

    Gosh, I sure am! Why, it is unprecedented— a denier of reality also being an asshole. Usually when someone insists she or he is vastly better educated than all of the world’s experts in a subject, the arrogance ends there and the denier is a fine, polite, liberal human being in all other venues in life.

  645. #646 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, I am not on trial for libel. Plus, I have no problems here. Lastly, it is safe to say, should Mann actually Mann up and go to trial, the jury won’t be packed with his Mann-boy lovers who will willingly disregard the law to find Steyn liable.

    That said, I don’t see any troubles for myself here, as I took RickA’s advice to heart. Once the name-calling starts, that means you are losing the argument. I have repeatedly asked questions no one has even tried to answer, such as: post one, just one, article from a recognized 1st amendment scholar stating Mann has anything but a difficult case. Or, in response to silly claims that this case is about science, I have asked commentators to state if that is true, why have the ACLU, NY Times, NBC, etc., all filed amicus briefs? You don’t really think they would file an amicus brief in a case about science, do you?

  646. #647 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    Dan: Lastly, it is safe to say, should Mann actually Mann up and go to trial, the jury won’t be packed with his Mann-boy lovers who will willingly disregard the law to find Steyn liable.”

    Er… ah… you do realize Dr. Mann has been trying very hard to have the law suit concluded as soon as possible, right? You also realize it is the defendants working to delay the conclusion as long as they can, right? You also realize it is the judge who has said the defendants’ request to delay is financially and legally expedient, right? After all, these facts have been explained to you more than 100 times.

  647. #648 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, ::sigh:: ‘For example, Rick gave [us] the “John stole $100 from the store last week.” If the Defendant knew that John was out of town,

    OBJECTION! How did the defendant “know” that John was out of town?

    Did the defendant do anything to ascertain whether or not John was or was not in town?

    Sustained.

    Counsel will refrain from making strawman arguments that presume that the defendant’s political campaign to impugn the plaintiff are based on claims of misconduct that are accepted as “common knowledge” — especially when no such common knowledge exists, expert claims that the plaintiff’s conduct was in fact not misconduct do exist, and it remains the responsibility of the defendant to prove that such conduct was in fact the fraud that the defendant has publicly claimed it to be.

    “Did the defendant make any reasonable attempt to determine whether or not John was in fact out of town or in the hospital?”

    No.

    “Did the defendant consult with experts or authorities who were keeping track of John’s whereabouts to inquire if he was in fact out of town or otherwise unable to have perpetrated the crime he was accused of?”

    No.

    “Is the defendant actually in contempt of the experts and authorities who were keeping track of John’s whereabouts, and thereby, due to defendant’s political agenda, willingly and negligently refuse to consult the knowledgeable authorities to determine John’s whereabouts before making his defamatory claim?”

    Well, um, let me talk about my interest in the First Amendment on this case in order to confuse and mislead this line of inquiry… You will co-operate, please, won’t you??

  648. #649 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Dean, how is that an “asshat” comment. Do you disagree with the fact that society’s survival birth rate is 2.1 births per female? do you disagree with the fact that virtually every single western European country’s birth rate is far lower then that (in some cases, hovering around the 1.0 mark?), or that the United States birth rate is right at 2.1 (thanks in large part to the religious areas of the country, like Utah, where the average family far exceeds the coasts?).

    That is not being racist or an asshat. It is simply stating a fact that societies that don’t bread will eventually fail to exist.

  649. #650 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    … the jury won’t be packed with his [dispassionate supporters] who will willingly disregard the law to find Steyn liable.

    And you are squirming with discomfiture over the fact that they can do exactly that.

    Your “recognized 1st amendment scholars” notwithstanding.

    You know damn well that this case is not about science and that it is not about the First Amendment. But you’re more than happy to keep stirring up that FUD.

  650. #651 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, sigh — can you point to any law that says the Defendant has an affirmative obligation to actually seek the truth? Your first objection actually proves Steyn’s point: How does the Defendant know John was out of town.

    Also, there is a big difference between making a statement without looking into its veracity, and willfully ignoring contradictory evidence.

    Lastly, you ignore the idea of “overwhelming” evidence vs. absolute evidence. There prominent scientists (prominent defined as those who are professors at well-respected universities) who disagree with Mann and his methods.

    Please explain why it is libelous for Steyn to side with the position of the minority (even if it is a substantial minority) vs. the majority.

    Are you claiming that not one, single scientist disagrees with Mann. Are you claiming that not one single scientist takes issue with Mann’s methods, and states he manipulated the data?

    If so, how do you respond to the scientists Steyn quotes in his book? Oh, that is right, you never read it…

    Finally, yes, Steyn can claim at the same time his statement was opinion, while also claiming he believed it to be true…

  651. #652 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I do know damn well that this case is about the First Amendment and not science. We finally agree. And, if the jury does ignore the law, then it would be ripe for appeal.

    I strongly suspect Steyn will have a strong summary judgment motion after discovery (which is why Mann refuses to Answer the discovery propounded by Steyn).

    How will Mann meet the notice requirement if Steyn says he has studied the opinions of mann vs. those he cites in his book, and sides with those who think Mann’s work is fraudulent….

  652. #653 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorburrus/2014/08/14/hopefully-dr-michael-e-mann-doesnt-sue-me-for-this-column/

    Yet another legal scholar who recognizes Mann’s case is “silly…”

  653. #654 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan

    BBD, I am not on trial for libel.

    This is irrelevant and evasive.

    Plus, I have no problems here.

    This is not true.

    Lastly, it is safe to say, should Mann actually Mann up and go to trial, the jury won’t be packed with his Mann-boy lovers who will willingly disregard the law to find Steyn liable.

    This repeats an offensive phrase that you are using provocatively, which reduces your status to that of mere troll.

    At this point, nobody is required to take you seriously. Is that what you mean when you assert that you have no problems here?

  654. #655 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Also, there is a big difference between making a statement without looking into its veracity, and willfully ignoring contradictory evidence.

    But Steyn did the latter, and that may yet be his undoing. As a legal expert, you are obliged to concede this point.

  655. #656 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Concede what point? Steyn may well have looked into, and I presume he did. But I don’t know that. But, even if he did, there are experts out there who support Steyn’s position. Brainstoms said in #646 there are experts who claim Mann’s work was not fraudulent.

    Well, there are also experts who claim it is fraudulent. http://www.globalresearch.ca/more-than-1000-international-scientists-dissent-over-man-made-global-warming-claims/5403284

    This is why courts don’t try science. The court will not determine whether mann or the dissenters are correct. It will simply determine if Steyn reasonably believed his comment to be true. The fact that professional scientists have claimed Mann is a fraud is fatal to Mann’s case….

  656. #657 Julian Frost
    South Africa
    December 30, 2015

    Dan:

    [T]here is a big difference between making a statement without looking into its veracity, and willfully ignoring contradictory evidence.

    Then why is the legal definition of Malice used for both? And actually, I would argue that you’re wrong. Making a potentially damaging claim without bothering to check if it is true or not is not “very different” from making that same claim and ignoring contradictory evidence.

  657. #658 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, Rick takes me seriously. And, to the extent I am not taken seriously, it is because no one come up with a legit response to the legal authorities I have linked. Instead, I get responses such (paraphrasing) “no matter what your experts say”

    As or the “Mann-boy lovers,” lighten up. I have been called various names. Even worse, so has my wife (being called a mail-order bride, which in itself is racist to Asian, particularly south-east Asian, women).

    Really, BBD, you seem like a decent guy. Just admit that, under U.S. libel law, Mann has a difficulty, borderline impossible case as it stands right now. What is so hard with that?

  658. #659 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Or, try Mr. Rind, CV attached: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/drind.html

    Mr. Rind is on record as being highly critical of the hockey stick, saying he has informed Mann of the issues, and has been ignored.

    I will link to Rind’s statement. Again, why can’t Steyn agree with those scientists who disagree with Mann and think his work is fraudulent? they might be in the minority, but science is not a majority-rules subject

  659. #660 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Julian, you misinterpret “reasonable belief.” If people are liable simply because they do not check the veracity of a statement, then people can essentially be sued for being stupid. In the legal sense, “unreasonable” means they had access to data, and ignored it….

    Your point is fair from an ethical standpoint, but it is legally invalid. If you can find any case law out there that supports your position, please post.

  660. #661 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    The aforementioned Mr. Rind’s full opinion regarding Mann and his hockey stick. The link gives the quote, and then provides the entire email for context…

    This is Fun! I can do this all day, being that I am off work and all…

  661. #662 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Concede what point? Steyn may well have looked into, and I presume he did. But I don’t know that. But, even if he did, there are experts out there who support Steyn’s position.

    You keep making this claim and I am reasonably certain it is false.

    Experts that support Steyn’s claim that MBH99 is fraudulent? Experts as in palaeoclimatologists with special expertise in millennial climate reconstructions?

    Who are these experts? I mean *real* experts, not a bunch of right-wing ideologues with irrelevant scientific backgrounds. I want real experts. And I want them now.

    List them, please.

  662. #663 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 30, 2015

    BBD: Experts that support Steyn’s claim that MBH99 is fraudulent? Experts as in palaeoclimatologists with special expertise in millennial climate reconstructions?”

    Heh! I would love to see an actual expert in the related venues step forward and show MBH98 or MBH99 is in any way fraudulent. I would even pay good money to see evidence that it/they are fraudulent.

  663. #664 dean
    United States
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, that canard about “societal suicide” is an old racist fake call for concern, masking the “muslim plan to destroy the west by out-breeding Europeans”.
    The fact that you repeat it quite telling.

  664. #665 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Calm down, BBD. I just posted a link with over 1,000 scientists who disagree with climate change. I also posted a link to Mr. Rind’s comments challenging, specifically, the hockey stick. You claim he is a right-wing ideologue? Prove it…

    Is that enough, for now? Or do you want more experts?

    Is it that hard to admit, really, that there are climate scientists who disagree with Mann, MBH, etc?

  665. #666 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Really, BBD, you seem like a decent guy. Just admit that, under U.S. libel law, Mann has a difficulty, borderline impossible case as it stands right now. What is so hard with that?

    I have said exactly that, I think seven times on this thread, but you can count for yourself. The most recent example is at #639.

    Stop making false statements about what I have said here.

  666. #667 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Dean, that statement has nothing to do with muslims. It is a simple statement about demographics. In fact, the county who might be in the worst position, demographically speaking, is Japan, which isn’t exactly known to be a prime destination for muslim immigrants.

    Really, calm down with the racist dog whistle BS. Sometimes a statement is really just a statement without racist undertones

  667. #668 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Desertphile: You can’t lump all defendants as one. Steyn wants the case to proceed. he has responded to Mann’s written discovery. Mann has not responded to Steyn’s. Steyn filed a motion to bifurcate his case from the other defendants, so at the very least discovery in mann v. steyn could proceed. Mann opposed same.

    This has been explained to you many times. If Mann wanted to proceed to trial as quickly as possible, the first thing he would do is respond to Steyn’s written discovery.

  668. #669 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    I just posted a link with over 1,000 scientists who disagree with climate change.

    Irrelevant. What you were asked for is this:

    Experts that support Steyn’s claim that MBH99 is fraudulent? Experts as in palaeoclimatologists with special expertise in millennial climate reconstructions?

    Who are these experts? I mean *real* experts, not a bunch of right-wing ideologues with irrelevant scientific backgrounds. I want real experts.

    Did Rind call Mann’s work fraudulent? If not, then he is not what you need to produce in order to defend your repeated claim that:

    there are experts out there who support Steyn’s position.

    Please list real experts who have stated that Mann’s work is fraudulent.

    Now.

  669. #670 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, I see post 639, and stand corrected. I am glad you recognize the weakness in Mann’s case. As for science, I have not denied anything. I have posted to links to scientists with a dissenting view, and I have stated my belief, shared by many, that when one side tries to silence the others by filing libel lawsuits which (as you concede) will be difficult to succeed, they lose credibility with me.

    I have said, over and over, I am not in a position to judge the actual science, as it is not my area. Also, Desertphile, I have never claimed to have more education then anyone here. there could be Ph.D’s here in various fields for all I know. I just state I am a lawyer because…wait for it… I actually am and publicly identified myself on this site before

  670. #671 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD: Did Rind actually use the word Fraud — no. What he does say is that there are significant deficiencies in MBH that bring in to question its validity. Rind next states he has brought these up to Mann, who has refused to address them, or even respond.

    In other words, Mann is aware (via Rind telling him) of information that challenges his position. Instead of responding to same, he ignores it. In other words, he is manipulating the data by ignoring contrary data, at least according to Rind

  671. #672 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    There are at least six other occasions on this thread where I made the same statement.

    Now, where’s the list of palaeoclimatologists with expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who described Mann’s work as fraudulent?

  672. #673 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Where is the link to Rind’s statement? I can’t see it.

  673. #674 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    BBD: Did Rind actually use the word Fraud — no.

    Then Rind does not endorse Steyn’s view and is not relevant to your defence of your claim that multiple experts *do* endorse Steyn’s view. FFS, I thought you said you were a lawyer.

  674. #675 Dan
    Las
    December 30, 2015

    http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/11/fraudulent-hockey-stick/

    BBD, I must have copied. I will re-link. also, here is a quote from Dr. Curry, who cites other scientists. notably, Curry concedes that she does not think Mann committed academic fraud. But, based on the scientists she cites, she does think Mann cherry-picked data.

    This is important, because if you read the original CEI post that Steyn says he agreed with, Mann was never accused of academic fraud, he was accused of cherry-picking data.

    Mann wants to limit the definition of fraud to academic fraud, when in fact fraud or fraudulent has different meanings depending on context.

  675. #676 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015
  676. #677 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD: Yes, Rind does endorse my position, because the original quote by Rand Simburg states Mann “tortured and manipulated data..” Rind is saying Mann manipulated data…

    If your position is that a scientist needs to use the word “fraud,” and no other phrases that clearly refer to the same conduct, you are in a tough bind

  677. #678 Dave
    December 30, 2015

    Funny how Mann doesn’t like his work being called fraudulent but he has no problem calling other people frauds.

  678. #679 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    Dave: Funny how Mann doesn’t like his work being called fraudulent but he has no problem calling other people frauds.”

    Funny how people defamed and libeled get upset at being defamed and libeled. Funny how you cannot show where and when Dr. Mann called anyone a fraud.

  679. #680 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    FFS, I am a lawyer. Maybe that is why I can recognize that “tortured and molested data” = mann ignores the issues brought up by Rind, directly to Mann = Fraud (in the dishonest sense of the word)

  680. #681 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Please remember, BBD, I have never said that Mann’s case is guaranteed to fail, only that it is extremely difficult. New evidence could be brought to light during discovery.

    However, in my opinion, such evidence is likely to be produced because it would require Steyn to essentially admit he knew mann was right and didn’t manipulate/ignore data all along. Short of that acknowledgement by Steyn, Mann will most likely lose, and could end up owing Steyn a sizeable amount in attorneys fees.

  681. #682 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan

    You can’t provide a single scientist with relevant domain expertise who endorses Steyn’s statement that Mann’s work is fraudulent.

    So you can never henceforth make that claim without lying.

    Please remember this, or I will have to remind you.

  682. #683 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    What he does say is that there are significant deficiencies in MBH that bring in to question its validity.

    Stating an opinion that another researcher’s paper does not produce valid results is part of the scientific process. It is not an accusation of fraud.

    Your position is hanging by threads. That keep breaking under scrutiny…

  683. #684 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Rind:

    … that there is practically no reliable tropical data for most of the time period, and without knowing the tropical sensitivity, we have no way of knowing how cold (or warm) the globe actually got. (And similarly, without knowing the tropical sensitivity for the LGM, we don’t know what it’s global cooling was, and without knowing it for 2xCO2, we don’t know what the future sensitivity would be.) It cannot be reconstructed with any confidence from the extratropical response, even if we were to know that well, because the extratropical response is partly driven by in situ feedbacks, so can occur with a variety of tropical responses…

    If there is ‘practically no reliable tropical data’ then how can Mann have have cherry-picked data?

    If it’s not there, it cannot be used or not used.

    Rind is another irrelevance, quoted out of context, by people who don’t understand the topic under discussion.

  684. #685 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html

    In this article, a prominent U.S. scientist, Dr. Zorita, claims Mann should be barred from further IPCC work due to his misleading conduct, and that of others, in the CRU scandal.

    Again, Dr. Zorita might be wrong, but a lay person such as Steyn can read this article, agree with it, and post a blog post with similar statements regarding Mann

  685. #686 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, you are right. But claiming Mann is ignoring data that contradicts his graph, can be considered fraud because Mann would be cherry-picking data…

  686. #687 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    RInd:

    How well we know the numbers for the first part
    of this century is also somewhat uncertain, so I can’t say Mike is wrong –
    but the point is, I don’t know that he’s right, nor do I think anybody else knows either.
    So what should we do about it? Basically I think we should indicate that
    there are conflicting views concerning the actual global climate change during this
    time period – quote the references (including the one’s Mike provides), note that there
    are uncertainties concerning the magnitude of the extratropical response, and
    that there is a paucity of tropical data – and leave it at that. Unsatisfying, perhaps,
    since people will want to know whether 1200 AD was warmer than today, but if the data
    doesn’t exist, the question can’t yet be answered.

    No data, no cherry-picking and no fraud.

    Rind does not endorse Steyn. End of discussion of Rind.

    Never make this claim again, Dan.

  687. #688 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Again, BBD 681, you rely on a vary narrow definition of a phrase. “Cherry-pick” data means can certainly mean failing to acknowledge a lack of data where it exists, especially when this absence of data could undermine your position.

    Really, that is the biggest stretch since “depends on what the definition of is, is”

  688. #689 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Zorita is a minor figure. Claiming that he is prominent is risibly self-serving.

    Even Zorita doesn’t accuse Mann of fraud. He is an irrelevance.

    I want only one of two things from you now, Dan:

    1/ A list of scientists with relevant domain expertise who have endorsed the view that Mann’s work is fraudulent

    2/ You to cease and desist from making the demonstrably false claim that such a body of experts exists.

    Do you understand this?

  689. #690 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Again, BBD 681, you rely on a vary narrow definition of a phrase.

    No, I don’t. You cannot cherry-pick data that doesn’t exist. Stop the childish crap now please.

  690. #691 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    But claiming Mann is ignoring data that contradicts his graph, can be considered fraud because Mann would be cherry-picking data…

    Well, then, now who has to prove “he knew about this data at the time”? Looks like the worm has turned…

  691. #692 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, I will absolutely make the claim. He says he doesn’t know if Mann is right or wrong, and states why. Mann is saying not only is he right, but so right that anyone who dares disagree with him is a “denier” on level with those who deny the earth is round.

    Again, ignoring the absence of data, when such data is NECESSARY to prove your position is cherry-picking.

    You really don’t intend to argue that ignoring information, without which Mann’s foundation is fatally flawed, is not cherry picking data (i.e., information).

    Come on, BBD, you are better then that…

  692. #693 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Not Steyn, that is for sure. He simply needs to say he relied on Rind, et. al. But, the fact that Rind has made Mann aware of this information, and that Mann failed to respond and keeps on claiming is stick is the gospel is certainly enough to justify Steyn’s comment that Mann manipulated and tortured data…

  693. #694 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, I will absolutely make the claim. He says he doesn’t know if Mann is right or wrong,

    Then it is logically impossible for Rind to accuse Mann of fraud. WTF do they teach you in law school these days?

    You cannot make the claim that there is a body of experts that endorses Steyn’s view of Mann’s work.

    It is demonstrably false.

    What does a lawyer call the knowing repetition of demonstrable falsehood, Dan?

  694. #695 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Jesus BBD, you really are dense. Dr. Zorita, per that article, says Mann should be precluded from IPCC because of what happened at CRU, in which Mann, Jones, et. al. cherry picked data.

    Dude, this idea that Steyn reliance is unjustified unless a scientist says, verbatim, Dr. Mann is a fraud is silly. Accusing him of cherry-picking data, which the scientists I have linked to clearly do, as does Dr. Curry in her link, is sufficient.

    And btw, what standing to you have to ask me to cease and desist referencing comments others make. If they want me to cease and desist, that can ask me themselves (you do know what standing is, right?)

  695. #696 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    He says he doesn’t know if Mann is right or wrong, and states why.

    Is NOT a claim of fraud.

    If anything, it’s pointing out that more research needs to be conducted.

    “Ignoring the absence of data” is not cherry-picking.

    Mann is correct to point out that there are many out there who are politically motivated to ignore scientific results and use any underhanded means and argumentation to try to suppress his publishing these results to those who will enact policy on the basis of its conclusions.

    “You really don’t intend to argue that” this isn’t so…

    Come on, Dan, you are better then that… (Or, “you should be.”)

  696. #697 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Again, ignoring the absence of data, when such data is NECESSARY to prove your position is cherry-picking.

    Remember when I asked you to account for the mystery of the Missing Literature?

    What if there have been studies since that *did* use improved tropical proxies and which *validated* MBH99?

    Yes, this is a trap.

    You were stuffed 300 comments ago.

  697. #698 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Jesus BBD, you really are dense. Dr. Zorita, per that article, says Mann should be precluded from IPCC because of what happened at CRU, in which Mann, Jones, et. al. cherry picked data.

    I think you are becoming confused in your desperation, Dan.

    Check the authors of MBH99. Can you find a Jones in there?

    You are cluelessly defending the indefensible, and so confirming that you are not just here to talk about the law.

    Since this is turning into a bit of a rout for you, I suggest that you stop now.

  698. #699 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/08/29/mannomatic-smoothing-technical-details/

    Here is another, by Stephen McIntrye.

    And, maybe there have been studies that have. There are more out there then just Rind. Again, all of these scientists might be wrong, and Mann’s work truly is gospel.

    The point is there is a legitimate debate, and Steyn is free to opine as to whose side he is on, and to comment (even in a vulgar way, if desired) about the debate.

  699. #700 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, you really are dense. Do you think that Dr. Zorita has no political ax of his own to grind?

    Do you really think that Steyn is the only right-wing political nut-job out there who’s on an ill-advised campaign to stifle all speech about what AGW is doing to the planet?

    Dude, really?

  700. #701 Dan
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, #695, what does that have to do with the cost of sunshine? Jeez, and I am getting routed. I simply pointed out that Dr. Zorita stated that Mann and his CRU colleagues (Jones, et. al.) engaged in cherry-picking data and should be off the IPCC.

    I am not even saying Dr. Zorita is right, just that he made the damn comment, which you wont even concede.

    Again, someone is getting routed, and it sure isn’t me.

    I will help you out…go to google and type “Scientists who think Dr. Mann is a fraud.” You will be plenty satisfied…

  701. #702 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, #693. Exactly! He says more research is needed. At the same time, Mann and his supporters call anyone who has the temerity to suggest the science isn’t settled a “denier.”

    Rind says more science is needed, Mann knows this because Rind has advised him of same, and Mann continues to spout his “denier” lines.

    Saying something is settled, when more research is needed, is dishonest (assuming you know that to be the case), and, therefore, fraudulent.

    Guys, this isn’t hard, really

  702. #703 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Ya know, for someone who has been exclaiming his lack of science knowledge, Dan is real quick to spew out the links to (pseudo)scientific literature to (try to) back up his scientific but-I’m-not-trained-in-science arguments…

    I will help you out…go to google and type …

    Shows that Dan is actively practicing Confirmation Bias.

    Dan-o, how many actual, legitimate, peer-reviewed science papers have you ‘Googled’ and read on this subject?

  703. #704 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I have no idea if Dr. Zorita has a political ax to grind. He is referred to in major media publications as respected scientist. Btw, you will certainly admit Dr. Mann has own political ax to grind right?

    First, you guys say there are no scientists who challenge Mann. Now, you question the credentials or impartiality of them. You don’t have to agree with them. YOu can think they are biased, just like some think Mann is biased.

    this is all fine and dandy. It is called free speech, which is protected in our great republic. Btw, saying Dr. Zorita has a political ax to grind is the same as calling him a fraud, because you are questioning his impartiality.

    Better watch out, Zorita might sue (then again, I doubt he is a sissy like Mann..)

  704. #705 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, #700, you are demonstrating our point. Who said it was settled? Saying that more research is needed is not a claim of fraud. It is part of the scientific process. It is not a mark of disgrace to “not have all the data” or to “not have all the answers”. It is a matter of pointing the way to truth.

    Those, such as Steyn, et al, who respond to what’s being turned up in the Global Consciousness by this research, and respond with, “Stop the research! It’s fraundulent!” and other such self-serving, deceptive, and illicit non-sense are, yes, deniers — as well as being anti-science.

    Dan, this isn’t hard, really.

  705. #706 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I am simply trying to show that there are scientists who have stated, in public, that Mann’s work is suspect (I would say fraudulent, but BBD’s panties will get wound up in a wad). I have said, over and over, I have no idea who is right.

    What legal authority do you have that says, unless Steyn relied on peer-reviewed literature, his comments were without reasonable knowledge and therefore malicious? If anything, lay people are less likely to rely on peer-reviewed issues

  706. #707 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Btw, you will certainly admit Dr. Mann has own political ax to grind right?

    AB-so-LUTE-ly. And you yourself had better thank your god that he’s got it, got it right, and is willing to suffer for your sake (not exclusively) to help mitigate the tragedy that will visit you if this issue is not studied, acknowledged, and dealt with responsibly.

    STOP STANDING IN THE WAY.

  707. #708 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan

    I will help you out…go to google and type “Scientists who think Dr. Mann is a fraud.” You will be plenty satisfied…

    I am not. What I want, and what you are serially failing to provide is a list of scientists with relevant domain expertise who said that Mann’s work is fraudulent.

    Stop wriggling and post the required list or concede the *fact* that your claim is false.

  708. #709 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, you misinterpret what those who oppose Mann say. I have no idea what Steyn says, although I would suspect he says exactly what Rind says: more research is needed to link human activity to warming before we enact significant legislation like cap and trade, etc. I know for a fact that is what Dr. Curry says, as she said it in her senate testimony.

    It becomes fraudulent when someone knows more research is needed, yet states the science is settled and the government should enact various legislation and regulations to the detriment of the economy.

  709. #710 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    It is called free speech, which is protected in our great republic.

    Then why are you unwilling to defend Mann’s right to speak out on what he’s learned about AGW, and side with Steyn, et al, to defame him so that he’ll lose his credibility, ability to speak, and venues in which to do so? (Answer: Because we’re politically against the results of Mann’s free speech on the subject.)

    Smacks of hypocrisy, Dan.

    Btw, saying Dr. Zorita has a political ax to grind is the same as calling him a fraud,

    OMG, you say that with a straight face???

    because you are questioning his impartiality.

    Being impartial is the same as being a fraud?

    ::snap, snap, snap:: go the strings of Dan’s arguments.

  710. #711 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD:
    Dr. Mcintrye (sp?)
    Dr. Rind
    Dr. Zorita
    Dr. Curry
    Dr. Happer

    Want more? I can get plenty more. The funny thing is if you actually read Steyn’s book, he quotes over 100 who call Mann a fraud (meaning dishonest).

    But you wont read his book, will you. You will simply say it is full of bunk and biased without even knowing what is in it

    And I am the biased one?

  711. #712 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    You misinterpret what those who oppose Mann say.

    You’d best hope the jury similarly misunderstands Steyn.

    I have no idea what Steyn says …

    You’re dissembling once again…

    I know for a fact that is what Dr. Curry says

    Why do you treat her as an authority? Is it because she says what YOU want to hear about the subject?

    What percentage of climate scientists (or scientists in general) support that view, versus support the prevailing view?

    “It becomes fraudulent when someone knows more research is needed, yet states the science is settled and the government should enact various legislation and regulations to the detriment of the economy.”

    Now we’re getting to the core of your argumentation… The Actual Issue at Hand.

  712. #713 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I absolutely agree with Dr. Mann’s right to speak out? What makes you think I don’t? I have long advocated a debate between Mann and Curry or Happer or whoever. In fact, I would defend to the death Dr. Mann’s right to speak, even if I disagree with it.

    and, if the situation was reversed and Steyn was suing Mann for something Mann wrote on his blog (and Mann does exactly what he is suing Steyn for; i.e., questions the impartiality of those he disagrees with).

    Please, seriously, explain how I don’t want Mann to speak simply because I think his case against Steyn is weak.

    You don’t mean to suggest that Mann will be prevented from speaking his mind unless Steyn is held liable, do you?

  713. #714 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan

    Rind says more science is needed, Mann knows this because Rind has advised him of same, and Mann continues to spout his “denier” lines.

    Saying something is settled, when more research is needed, is dishonest (assuming you know that to be the case), and, therefore, fraudulent.

    Guys, this isn’t hard, really

    See the error bars? Where is this claim that Mann said MBH99 was ‘settled’ science coming from?

    Look at the error bars and *think*.

    And then there’s all the subsequent work that has failed to demonstrate fundamental flaws in MBH99…

    More evidence.

    So, where’s the list?

  714. #715 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I don’t treat Curry as an authority. I just happen to know what she said because I saw that portion of her testimony on the news.

    I have long said I don’t know if Curry is right, or Mann or whoever. What I do know is that Steyn is free to agree with Curry, over Mann if he choses, and such reliance nullifies Mann’s position that Steyn was “malicious” (in the legal sense) in making his comments

  715. #716 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dr. Mcintrye (sp?)
    Dr. Rind
    Dr. Zorita
    Dr. Curry
    Dr. Happer

    No relevant domain expertise there, except for Rind, and he didn’t say what you claim he said. I have already asked you not to associate his name with your false claim and here you are, doing it again a few comments later.

    What do lawyers call serial repetition of falsehood, Dan?

  716. #717 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    And I am the biased one?

    You certainly are… “It becomes fraudulent when someone knows more research is needed, yet states the science is settled and the government should enact various legislation and regulations to the detriment of the economy.”

    And you are saying everything you can say to try to avoid admitting this is your issue, as you try to defeat “the government enacting various legislation and regulations” because you believe it would be “the detriment of the economy.”

    YOUR economy. YOUR lifestyle.

  717. #718 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, it is common knowledge that if the government limits the access of corporations to fossil fuels, especially via a carbon tax, the cost of business will go up. Companies will have to take money that could be used for R&D, hiring, expansion, to pay the new tax….

    That will slow the economy (which most people would agree is harming the economy). The question is: is such slowing worth it?

  718. #719 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, Dr, Curry doesn’t have relevant domain experience? Also, Rind said more research is needed. Is he a denier?

  719. #720 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Steve Mcintyre isn’t a PhD, let alone a climate scientist with relevant domain expertise. So you can erase the ‘Dr’ honorific for a start.

    He’s got no relevant scientific background at all. According to Wiki:

    BSc (mathematics)
    MA (philosophy, politics, and economics)

  720. #721 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    BBD, Dr, Curry doesn’t have relevant domain experience?

    No, not even close. Check for yourself.

  721. #722 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    Brainstorms, I am still waiting for you to explain how I don’t support Mann’s right to free speech simply because I don’t think he has a liable case? I really hope you don’t mean Mann is that think-skinned that he can only speak his mind when he is afforded the protection of our legal system against those who dare to challenge him? I would feel sorry for such a Mann-child…

  722. #723 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, #711, WE ARE NOT THAT STUPID. We know damn well that a very effective tactic to stifle someone’s speech, when that person is a scientific researcher and an acknowledged authority on a subject that some in society see as politically threatening, is to DISCREDIT THEM as a vehicle to try to DENY THEM their right to speak.

    We know damn well that your issue is that you do NOT want Mann, et al, to influence “the government to enact various legislation and regulations” to (ironic, ain’t it) SAVE the economy, because you WRONGLY believe it would be “to the detriment of the economy.”

  723. #724 Dan
    Las Vegas
    December 30, 2015

    As a respected climate academic, I think her opinion merits consideration, especially from a lay person perspective…

  724. #725 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    I don’t treat Curry as an authority.

    You DO when you keep citing her — almost exclusively. Without ANY balance by any other scientists that oppose her view (and that ratio is what? 32:1?)

    That’s biased.

    I just happen to know what she said because I saw that portion of her testimony on the news.

    Get real.

    I have long said I don’t know if Curry is right, or Mann or whoever.

    Yet you speak as though you believe Curry is right. And defend it. Actions speak louder…

  725. #726 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #508
    “Can you name one person who has ever lost his job for taking the side of man made climate change?”

    If persons who are responsible for providing the public with credible information provide misinformation instead, should that not have consequences?

    Another example that you could have mentioned, but didn’t, is government censorship to prevent employees from referring to climate change, and threats of reprisals if they do.

    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/13042015/climate-censorship-gains-steam-Florida-Wisconsin
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/09/3631465/not-just-florida-censoring-climate-change-talk/

    How come protecting the rights of those who abuse their positions concerns you, while the rights of those who attempt to responsibly do their jobs doesn’t? You claim you don’t have an opinion about climate science, yet you consistently parrot the opinions and attitudes of denialists. Your comments are not just about law, which you can speak about with some authority, but also about climate change, and there you are totally ignorant and totally tendentious. Your statements on climate impugn your legal credibility.

  726. #727 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    As a respected climate academic,

    Respected by which climate scientists? How many papers on climate science has she had published in peer-reviewed literature? (If she’s “respected” by that field, they would impartially review her papers.)

    But no, she has no relevant domain experience. (She may have political domain experience that’s relevant to you — and others seeking similar Confirmation Bias support. We’ll grant you that.)

    I think her opinion merits consideration, especially from a lay person perspective…

    It has been considered. And found to be not valid with respect to climate science and its revealed results.

    The “layperson” would be better served by paying attention to legitimate climate scientists. (And by avoiding the right-wing ditto-head media that attacks such scientists for purely political reasons.)

  727. #728 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    Dan

    As a respected climate academic, I think her opinion merits consideration, especially from a lay person perspective…

    First, I would question that JC is a respected academic at this point. Second, she is not a palaeoclimatologist with domain expertise in millennial temperature reconstructions. Third, it has been amply demonstrated that JC doesn’t understand MBH99. Her performance on a certain thread at Keith Kloor’s old blog springs to mind.

    JC doesn’t meet the necessary criteria of expertise.

  728. #729 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    One more thing, Dan. Blog posts such as those you link aren’t relevant in the scientific debate, which is carried out in the peer-reviewed literature. There are plenty of studies that essentially confirm MBH99 and we have to explain this in the context of claims that it is fraudulent. Now I’m struggling to do that, as any reasonable person would.

  729. #730 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 30, 2015

    #722

    I believe it’s fair to say that Curry’s opinions are considered, and that among climate scientists she therefore no longer is regarded a respected climate academic. This, by the way, is not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing. It’s about honesty and respecting evidence.

  730. #731 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Dan, “it is common knowledge that if the government limits the access of corporations to fossil fuels, especially via a carbon tax, the cost of business will go up.”

    In the short term, yes, it will. Then it will get cheap again. Ironically, it will end up cheaper than it is now with BAU fossil fuel use. (Your implicit assumption that fossil fuel availability/price will not change is woefully wrong.)

    Companies will have to take money that could be used for R&D, hiring, expansion, to pay the new tax…

    …unless they cut their fossil fuel use. You’re making unbalanced assumptions.

    That will slow the economy (which most people would agree is harming the economy). The question is: is such slowing worth it?</i.

    Okay. Now, Dan, continue: Dan, what will it cost the economy to NOT slow/stop the use of fossil fuels? What does bad weather cost the economy today? What will flooding such as being experienced by Missouri and Texas cost? What will winter weather such as experienced last year by Boston cost?

    What will rising sea levels that flood Miami, Houston, New Orleans, cost? What was the cost to the economy when Katrina hit Nawlins? What was the cost of NYC flooding after Sandy? What will it cost the economy when these sorts of things strike our coastal cities with regularity and even greater force?

    What will the cost to our economy be when crops fail widely due to increased droughts? When they fail due to increased flooding of farm fields?

    Shall I go on, Dan? Why don't we just start with you making us an estimate of what all these AGW-induced new costs will have on "the economy" as they hit us year after year.

    Oh, and you wanted to make a point about "extinctions"? Shall we also talk about species extinctions caused by rising temperatures and loss of eco-systems that will kill off entire species? Want to also estimate those costs & their impacts on the economy, Dan?

    Don't take too long, 'K? Thanks.

  731. #732 dean
    United States
    December 30, 2015

    Final comment dan, since you have shown yourself as willing to lie about the “demographic issue” as you are about the main topic of the post.
    Birthrates are low, but not dangerously low. The racist/bigoted part, which you embrace, is the “cultural suicide” line. If you claim that isn’t used by the more disgusting racist/bigot groups, or that you didn’t know it, after all your other dissembling there is no reason to believe you on this.

  732. #733 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    dean: Birthrates are low, but not dangerously low. The racist / bigoted part, which you embrace, is the “cultural suicide” line. If you claim that isn’t used by the more disgusting racist / bigot groups, or that you didn’t know it, after all your other dissembling there is no reason to believe you on this.

    Birth rates for humans are not at all low: they are far too high. I wonder if I’m A Lawyer Really I am Dan means “birth rate among pale people like me.” It does not matter if humanity goes extinct, or parts of it; what matters is how and why, and the suffering inflicted during the extinction.

  733. #734 obstreperous Applesauce
    December 30, 2015

    More research is always needed. It’s researchers’ raison d’être.

    And for starters, as in law there are specialties. And subspecialties. And impact analysis. And rankings of publications. Robustness. And consensus (since science is a more cooperative enterprise than people realize) . And there are measures of uncertainty (because in the real world nothing is ever certain–ever)…

    You also have nihilists, propagandists, and bs artists working overtime to spread confusion. You have to account for those too.

  734. #735 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    My reading is just fine.

    I’ll say it again. Only the first quote you provide is from 2009. It does not mention Mann or his hockey stick.

    All the subsequent quotes you provide are from 2014, i.e. after the lawsuit was filed.

  735. #736 Locus
    Eart
    December 30, 2015

    Sorry. Previous comment of mine does not have a reference.

    #497 Winter

  736. #737 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    #523 Honeycutt:

    When I put “definition of fraud” into Google, the second definition is given as,

    ” A person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities.”

    I’ve heard fraud used as an opinion on quite a few occasions. For example, a local sportswriter referred to the quarterback of an NFL team as a “locker room fraud”.

  737. #738 BBD
    December 30, 2015

    #732 Desertphile

    It does not matter if humanity goes extinct, or parts of it; what matters is how and why, and the suffering inflicted during the extinction.

    Yes.

  738. #739 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    #413 cosmicomics:

    What complete and utter nonsense.

    It is Trenberth and other global warming proponents who admitted to the pause. They are trying *explain* the pause. Why would they try to explain something that doesn’t exist? Why would they write papers *explaining* that the pause was the result of the ‘missing energy’ went into the ocean? This is why warmists look so goofy. Half are saying the pause has been explained, the other half are claiming it never happened.

    “In other words, you can’t postulate a “pause” without explaining what’s causing it”

    Huh? You can’t describe something unless you can explain it? What rubbish. People observe phenomena all the time before someone finally explains what’s causing it.

    My “evidence” is to quote the NASA press release directly – that you chose to leave out.

    “The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.”

    “Many processes on land, air and sea have been invoked to explain what is happening to the “missing” heat. One of the most prominent ideas is that the bottom half of the ocean is taking up the slack, but supporting evidence is slim.”

    My False Dilemma comments are right on the mark.

  739. #740 Desertphile
    December 30, 2015

    Dream or nightmare, we have to live our experience as it is, and we have to live it awake. We live in a world which is penetrated through and through by science and which is both whole and real. We cannot turn it into a game simply by taking sides. —JACOB BRONOWSKI

  740. #741 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    other global warming proponents

    NO ONE HERE is a proponent of global warming.

    Point in fact, we (who are not covert political operatives for short-term self-service at the cost of long-term destruction — guys, we need to coin a term for such people…) are very MUCH anti-global warming and are doing what we can to quantify it, qualify it, publicize it, and influence governments to enact various legislation and regulations to mitigate it.

    If you see or hear of any of these global warming proponents, you’d best capture them and put them in a cage and report them to the FBI. Your life, livelihood, and economy are depending on it.

    BTW, there was no “pause”. Why do you keep referring to imaginary things like this? Are you off your meds? Been drinking lately?

    Oh, and BTW, although the Earth’s deep ocean may not have warmed measurably since 2005 (and more measurements are desperately needed to confirm/quantify this), the upper reaches of the ocean have — and stand by, because it’s expected to belch a lot of it into the atmosphere and cause economy-damaging stormy weather in 2016.

    Your comments are falsely on the mark, yes, and that is a dilemma.

  741. #742 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    Brainstorms: “If you see or hear of any of these global warming proponents, you’d best capture them and put them in a cage and report them to the FBI. Your life, livelihood, and economy are depending on it.”

    In year 1997 I met my first, last, and only proponent of global warming. It spooked the shit outta me. He was the new master and commander (captain) of a PanaMax container ship that had never been subjected to admeasure, and the vessel’s owners expected the process to take two days less than it did (by the Canal Zone Authority), and come up to a figure 60 square meters less than it did.

    Master and Commander took his rage and anger out on the shore pilot and his assistant (me), screaming bloody murder that he had been cheated— the vessel would forever carry the “grossly inflated” measurement in its documents, unless the owners wanted to contest the admeasure (at great expense).

    The “problem” was that the PanaMax had more stowage on deck than other PanaMax vessels: water-tight steel boxes to hold life vests, buckets, flare guns, strobe lights, and other crew-related gear; Panama admeasured those boxes and called it “cargo space.” It was fucking hilarious, but only for people who don’t own vessels.

    The pilot was an Indian who lived on a barge called Koosmucky. He told Master and Commander that if he didn’t like the admeasure, “You can dig your own fucking canal, mate.” The captain was literally hopping up and down on the bridge, with a purple face; the entire transit was spent with him wailing about how he was going to bypass the canal once the Arctic had melted— an event he greatly looked forward to. He explained (correctly) that he would save millions of dollars “going over” (the planet) instead of through the canal.

    I made the mistake of sitting on the pilot’s berth (where shore pilots nap, on the bridge) without permission first, and the captain went ape shit crazy with rage; the shit even filed a complaint when we got to Colón (even though the shore pilot was in command at the time), and I had to pay a $15 “disrespect fine.”

    Gods, how I hated that job.

    Oh… er… ah… yeah, so, this asshole was the only person I ever met who said he couldn’t wait for Earth to warm more: it would cost his employers less. :-)

  742. #743 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    Scientific criticisms of MBH98 / MBH99

  743. #744 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Locus, it does your ilk no good to post a video of a talking head.

    Show us the body of science that supports your global conspiracy alarmist stance on this subject.

    If you prefer, we can read it in upcoming peer-reviewed science journals. (Greg’s blog may not be large enough to hold it, we understand. But you can try.)

    Please let us know your preference.

  744. #745 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    #738 Brainstorms:

    You know what I meant by the word ‘proponent’, Namely someone who supports the idea that almost all of temperature rise of the last one hundred and fifty years has been the direct result of human activity.

    If there’s been no ‘pause’ then why did this article appear in Nature?

    “Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.”

    http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

    Or how about this?

    “A consensus about what has put global warming on pause may be years away, …”

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6199/860.summary

  745. #746 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Namely someone who supports the idea that almost all of temperature rise of the last one hundred and fifty years has been the direct result of human activity.

    Ah, those people I have heard of. They call them scientists in the English language. But I know not of any “proponents”. These scientists I refer to are working diligently against the “temperature rise of the last one hundred and fifty years that has been the direct result of human activity.”

    You would do well to support them.

    Nature, et al, are free to publish as they please, and use terms as their editorial staff choose to.

    Tell us, if Nature published an article that said that the Earth is about to spiral into the Sun in 2019, does that make it so?

    Why do you believe this? It seems kind of childish logic, don’t you think?

  746. #747 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    Why didn’t you actually watch the video?

    Berkeley professor summarizes the extensive National Research Council report into Mann’s hockey stick.

    Full text available here.

    http://www.nap.edu/read/11676/chapter/1

    I already posted this in comment #323.

  747. #748 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Oh, and ane more niggling detail that you’re going to have to take care of in order to carry the day with your position on these issues:

    You’re going to have to negotiate with Nature to roll back the several years of global temperature rise, the history of increased storms, the creep towards the poles of ecosystems, the rising sea levels, the lost polar ice, the change in breeding seasons, etc. that are now part of global history for several years.

    That’s a tall order, I understand… I do sympathize with the rather difficult challenge you face in winning this “debate” of yours..

    (Where’s my popcorn popper…)

  748. #749 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    Oh hey! Yes, we MUST NOT FORGET!

    You’re gonna hafta remove ALL THAT CO2 from our atmosphere while you’re at it…

    Tell ya what: We’ll cut ya a deal. You just remove the CO2 and we’ll call it a win for you. Let’s choose, say, 280 ppm.

    Good luck, Lotus! The World is cheering for you.

  749. #750 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    If you accept #746 as a compromise criteria for your “side”, please comply with the 280 ppm of atmospheric CO2 within 12-24 months.

    Otherwise, your “win” will be subject to forfeiture.

  750. #751 Locus
    Earth
    December 30, 2015

    #743 Brainstorms:

    Um, so now we’re NOT supposed to pay attention to peer-reviewed scientific journals? Because that would be ‘childish’. Tilt, tilt, tilt …

    And before all the warmist heads explode, yes I understand that Tollefson’s article is not peer-reviewed. But he interviews a number of scientists about their work and provides links to their peer-reviewed papers at the end.

  751. #752 Rob Honeycutt
    December 30, 2015

    Locus…

    I find it interesting that you would quote the North Report since they clearly state that MBH98/99 is fully consistent with every subsequent millennial temperature reconstruction.

  752. #753 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    Rob Honeycutt: Locus… I find it interesting that you would quote the North Report since they clearly state that MBH98/99 is fully consistent with every subsequent millennial temperature reconstruction.

    But then, so is the missing ice.

  753. #754 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    Dan:

    “It becomes fraudulent when someone knows more research is needed, yet states the science is settled and the government should enact various legislation and regulations to the detriment of the economy.”

    Dan might be startled to learn just how little we know of, say, electromagnetism …

    There’s plenty of ongoing research, here is just one example:

    http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/new-understanding-of-electromagnetism-could-enable-antennas-on-a-chip

    “new understanding” indicates “past understanding” has been incomplete … I mean … fraudulent, apparently.

    By Dan’s standards, any regulation related to electromagnetism … which would include regulations regarding the proper wiring of his home … is fraudulent. Because our understanding of electromagnetism is … not settled science!

    Methinks Dan understands even less about science than he does about good manners, and that’s saying a lot.

  754. #755 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    I Am A Lawyer Really I Am Dan: “It becomes fraudulent when someone knows more research is needed, yet states the science is settled and the government should enact various legislation and regulations to the detriment of the economy.”

    Okay, I give up, Dan: who the bloody anal fuck said solving the crisis should include “regulations to the detriment of the economy?”

  755. #756 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    Of course Dan, upon further thought, might conclude that the frontiers of research into electromagnetism don’t impact the “settled science” that underlies basic things like electrical codes … and that safely wiring his house is a responsible thing to do.

    He might conclude that once science is “settled enough” in a particular area, such as straightforward applications of electricity, then the fact that, say, “our complete understanding of electromagnetism is not settled science” is irrelevant.

    Just like the fact that despite our understanding of climate science being incomplete, our scientific understanding is “settled enough” that a call for action is warranted.

    Any call to delay action based on the fact that our scientific knowledge is incomplete is simply stupid. We don’t know all of the causes of lung cancer, but despite this, few would argue that calls to quit smoking are “fraudulent” because of this.

    Though apparently Dan would.

  756. #757 dean
    United States
    December 30, 2015

    You could almost wonder if these clowns believe that when “scientific consensus” on a topic is referenced it means that no more study or investigation is warranted (or, in the minds of the conspiracists, allowed by the international clan controlling scientists).

    But then you look at the contortions and intentional misrepresentations they go through to condemn their imaginary enemy, and you realize it is deeper than simply misunderstanding a term.

  757. #758 Brainstorms
    December 30, 2015

    I think Dan would be likely to argue that calls to quit smoking are “fraudulent” if he held stock in tobacco companies.

    Yes it is deeper than simply misunderstanding a term.

    After all, Dan’s primary interest in all of this is to preserve his economic status and not have to adjust his lifestyle. Any obfuscation, false posturing, FUD, and distraction by steering arguments down rat holes (and he’s good at that; he’s a lawyer, recall) are geared towards that end.

    I think you’re largely wasting your time arguing the science, because Dan likely does not understand it and is not really arguing against the science (per se). What he’s actually arguing against and is dishonest about is any government taking action to mitigate the causes and effects of AGW.

    Address that issue — because that’s it for him. It just took 700+ entries (on this thread alone) to get him to barf up his actual issue. Arguing the science won’t convince him, because it doesn’t address his real concerns.

    These are the same concerns for RickA, by the way. Hence, the same run-around. They can (and have) gone along with this ‘game’ for days. It won’t end…

    …until we start pointing out to them these facts: It will be more expensive to deny/ignore AGW and its effects that it will be address them. It will hurt the economy more to deny/ignore AGW and its effects that it will be to impact the economy with laws & regulations to address them.

    How about pointing out what impacts we can expect and what their relative costs are to addressing them?

    Once Dan & RickA “get” that what they’re (actually) arguing for (doing nothing) is the most expensive option for everyone, they may start down the path of recanting…

  758. #759 Chris O'Neill
    December 30, 2015

    As or the “Mann-boy lovers,” lighten up

    “lighten up”, a favourite phrase of hypocrites who can dish it out but can’t take it.

  759. #760 Chris O'Neill
    December 30, 2015

    locus:

    “Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.”

    As we all know, the always statistically insignificant global warming “hiatus” is now over. The only genuine arguments about what it was are academic. We now have to deal with the reality of global warming.

  760. #761 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    As I have said, over and over, when scientists try to silence via litigation their opponents, they lose credibility

    Once again Dan you are demonstrating that you are practicing logical fallacy, and not law.

    Steyne is not Mann’s scientific opponent, he is a political hack who, for political/commercial reasons, is trying to discredition Mann by casting aspertions on him, in order to delay or prevent a policy to reduce carbon emissions.

    Further, Mann’s work has been independently verified time and time again. Any real scientific “opposition” to Mann’s work has had straight-forward access to the scientific literature, and has in its turn been shown to be incorrect in its assertions that there is no “hockey stick”.

    There is a freely-accessible forum in which Steyne can scientifically oppose Mann if this is what he really wants to do: that Steyne has no presence in the scientific literature is indicative of the fact that this is not about science as much as it is about harming Mann’s valid science by harming his reputation.

    Let me repeat that – Mann’s case is not about any putative scientific silencing of Steyne. Rather, it’s about the slurs on Mann’s reputation and you have clearly demonstrated that you know this with your many comments on libel law. And it’s absolutely appropriate and correct to use libel law to counter libel… and Steyne absolutely remains free to counter Mann scientificially by doing science, if that’s really what he wants to do.

    Your employment of confabulating rhetorical artifice demonstrates that some lawyerly practice recognises and exploits the understanding that people may be influenced by language and illogic rather than by reason and fact. Repeating over and over – as you yourself state that you do – that artifice, might fool some of those same vulnerable people but it’s highly unlikely to pull the wool over the eyes of a competent judge, and it’s highly likely that Mann’s own lawyers would recognise similar tactics in court and point them out to any jury hearing the case.

  761. #762 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    I defer to the scientists regarding scientific issues. I can at least point to some scientists, like Dr. Curry, to back up my position.

    Again, you are applying faulty thinking to your practice.

    Serious analysis of Judith Curry’s work would show you that Curry’s (very limited) work in the field of human-caused climate change is largely discredited, or if it’s her informal “work” that is promulgated via her blog, it is hazy, suggestive waffle that never devles into any real testing of science.

    That such material “back[s] up [your] position” says a lot about your position, and very little (-> nothing) about any challenge to the huge corpus of work that supports the science of human-caused global warming.

  762. #763 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    [Hmmm, my quote tags evaporated…]

    I defer to the scientists regarding scientific issues. I can at least point to some scientists, like Dr. Curry, to back up my position.

    Again, you are applying faulty thinking to your practice.
    Serious analysis of Judith Curry’s work would show you that Curry’s (very limited) work in the field of human-caused climate change is largely discredited, or if it’s her informal “work” that is promulgated via her blog, it is hazy, suggestive waffle that never devles into any real testing of science.
    That such material “back[s] up [your] position” says a lot about your position, and very little (-> nothing) about any challenge to the huge corpus of work that supports the science of human-caused global warming.

  763. #764 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    Bernard J, #598 — since when did I claim to be litigating science matters.

    Again, a logical fallacy – this time a straw man.

    I didn’t say that you were “litigating scientific matters” (my emphasis).

    Words make a difference. But I am sure that you know this.

  764. #765 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    Dean, how is that an “asshat” comment. Do you disagree with the fact that society’s survival birth rate is 2.1 births per female? do you disagree with the fact that virtually every single western European country’s birth rate is far lower then that (in some cases, hovering around the 1.0 mark?), or that the United States birth rate is right at 2.1 (thanks in large part to the religious areas of the country, like Utah, where the average family far exceeds the coasts?).

    That is not being racist or an asshat. It is simply stating a fact that societies that don’t bread will eventually fail to exist.

    FFS, you really are scientifically clueless. When populations are large it is desirable for replacement rates to become negative. This prevents said populations from over-exploiting their niches. And when populations are once again sufficiently low there is greater incentive for individuals to reproduce at greater rates, so the previous negative replacement rates will again become positive. It’s almost a Law of Nature.

    And this applies as much to humans as it does to other species. That conservative scientific illiterates think that exinction is a generation away when family sizes (appropriately) decline simply shows that they have no understanding of the nature of demographic fluctuations within their niches.

  765. #766 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    Dan says:

    Now we have evidence of a pause. What to make of that? I haven’t the faintest idea, but when one side resorts to name calling, litigation, and otherwise abusive tactics, said side loses credibility in my opinion.

    Dan says:

    I am not a sissy like Dr. Mann.

    Dan says:

    Better watch out, Zorita might sue (then again, I doubt he is a sissy like Mann..)

    What to make of that, indeed…?

  766. #767 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    Bernard J.

    “I am not a sissy like Dr. Mann.”

    What to make of that? It’s another though more subtle homophobic comment that, along with his past allusions to people supporting science being equivalent to members of NAMBLA.

    Makes one wonder.

    Clearly a homophobe. Perhaps a bit insecure in his own sexuality, and almost certainly not very scary physically.

  767. #768 dhogaza
    December 30, 2015

    One also wonders if Dan, in his medical malpractice practice, informs his clients that hiring him to file a suit makes them sissies.

    Gee, Dan, do your clients know you think they’re sissies?

    What does that make you?

  768. #769 Bernard J.
    December 30, 2015

    If there’s been no ‘pause’ then why did this article appear in Nature?

    The simple answer is that many people succumbed to the deliberately repeated (ad infinitum, as per propaganda strategy) meme by trying to explain to what it was people were referring.

    The simple fact is that there was never any pause. All that the dissemblers were referring to was the natural year-to-year fluctuation of heat distribution around the planet that masks the underlying signal. This year-to-year fluctuation is always present, regardless of any underlying trend in global temperature change, and it is such that it takes 12-20 years to separate the signal from the noise.

    Anyone who claims that there was a pause is quite simply and very starkly displaying their lack of understanding that inherent noise in the climate system is such that in any year there is always a miminum preceeding period where there is no statistically-identifiable warming (or cooling).

    And yes, even this year, the hottest in recorded history, and following immediately after the previous record hottest year in contemporary history, there is a period of almost two decades where the signal is not identifiable above the noise at the (somewhat arbitrary) 95% confidence level. This does not mean that it is not warming, it simply means that with the criterion that we use to detect signal from noise, the short term signal is such that it is subsumed by noise, and that a slightly longer interval of time is needed to detect the ongoing increasing trend (the warming) from the constant (but largely static in size) noise.

    If one is unable to understand this, one is either willfully self-deluding or intellectually handicapped.

  769. #770 Locus
    Earth
    December 31, 2015

    #765 Bernard J:

    So you’re saying that when Kevin Trenberth writes peer-reviewed papers seeking to explain the pause it must be because he “is either willfully self-deluding or intellectually handicapped”?

    How many other prominent warmists have you identified as “willfully self-deluding” or “intellectually handicapped”? Maybe even Mr. Potato-Head himself?

  770. #771 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    Locus

    This is getting painful.

    Please remember that a slowdown in the rate of surface (tropospheric) warming shouldn’t really be called a pause or hiatus. So there’s an issue with imprecise (incorrect) terminology, and scientists have contributed to this.

    Perhaps more fundamentally, there is confusion about what is actually being discussed.

    The slowdown in the rate of surface (tropospheric) warming does not indicate that energy has stopped accumulating in the climate system as a whole. Instead, more energy is going into the global ocean which can easily be seen by looking at the increase of ocean heat content in the 0 – 2000m layer. (Please note that this is NOT the abyssal deep, so fussing about a lack of warming in the deep ocean is an irrelevance). When you consider the climate system as a whole (as you should) you see that ‘global warming’ has not ‘paused’ at all.

    The simplest way to think about this is:

    The troposphere ≠ the climate system

    The troposphere (lower atmosphere) is in fact only a very small part of the climate system, which is mostly ocean.

    Variability in the wind-driven ocean circulation modulates the rate of surface (tropospheric) warming and this is what we have seen over the last decade.

    On the centennial scale – appropriate when considering the growing effects of AGW – this kind of decadal natural variability is an irrelevance.

    * * *

    See England et al. (2014)

  771. #772 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 31, 2015

    Locus 766

    Really? That’s what you took away from that?

    For pity’s sake, just look at the NOAA trend line:
    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/images/no%20slow%20down%20in%20global%20warming.jpg

    Seriously why do you tie yourself in knots in order to say such weird things? Do you think it sounds smart, was your mother scared by a climatologist when you were a fetus, or what?

  772. #773 Bernard J.
    December 31, 2015

    So you’re saying that when Kevin Trenberth writes peer-reviewed papers seeking to explain the pause it must be because he “is either willfully self-deluding or intellectually handicapped”?

    No, I’m not saying that – you’re clumsily attempting to introduce a straw man.

    Trenberth knows full-well that warming has not stopped. Any work of his or of others in this vein was simply trying to get an insight into what physical processes were operating such that heat was shunted between planetary sinks in a manner that it showed less in the surface temperature record. This is different to saying that there is a “pause”… although I do take umbrage with him and others who used the term sufficiently loosely that mendacious people such as yourself could confabulate two different phenomena in an attempt to legitimise the notion that the planet had stopped accumulating heat. I understand why he did so – it was an attempt to engage with and defuse a propaganda meme – but in doing so he and others inadvertently gave credence to a notion that had no physical validity.

    I have a quick and simple quiz for you and indeed for any others here who subscribe to the “pause/” meme. Has it warmed since 1995? If so, when did that warming occur? If it did so in bursts, when did the warming stop, and when did it resume? On what basis do you base your conclusions?

  773. #774 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.

  774. #775 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 31, 2015

    Dave: The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.”

    Let me guess….. you accept *ONLY* the three sentences of the 1,100-page report where the IPCC mentioned a slow-down in surface warming (a “hiatus”). You reject the entire report except that tiny part, right? Of course I am correct; I even know why you reject the rest.

    Note that the IPCC had no idea what “the pause” was; no scientists did either. It was the USA media who kept insisting there was a “pause,” and they asked the IPCC about “the pause” when AR5 was released. Since there was no “pause,” the IPCC had no idea what the media were talking about. The IPCC told the media, in part, “trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends.”

    You will not find any geophysicists who thought human-caused climate change “paused.” The laws of physics don’t work that way.

  775. #776 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    Just as you, Dave, are apparently not capable of reading the recent comments. Please see # 767.

  776. #777 Bernard J.
    December 31, 2015

    So you think that there was a “hiatus” Dave?

    When did the planet stop heating? When did it start again? How do you know?

  777. #778 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 31, 2015

    Bernard J.: So you think that there was a “hiatus” Dave?

    When did the planet stop heating? When did it start again? How do you know?

    Hee! Good luck with getting an answer. I would love to know what possible mechanism(s) would apply to having human-caused climate change just magically stop happening.

  778. #779 Obstreperous Applesauce
    December 31, 2015

    Hiatus denier… Is that
    Denier of the hiatus or
    AGW denier focused on the hiatus?

  779. #780 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    December 31, 2015

    #738

    ““In other words, you can’t postulate a “pause” without explaining what’s causing it”
    Huh? You can’t describe something unless you can explain it? What rubbish. People observe phenomena all the time before someone finally explains what’s causing it.”
    You’re correct here. I overstated my case. But:

    When scientists (and other academics) observe something they don’t understand, they try to understand it. There was an unexpected, but not unprecedented slowdown in surface temperatures. At the same time there was still a measurable energy imbalance that was adding energy to the climate system. The energy that previously was contributing to surface warming had to be going somewhere else in the climate system. This is what scientists like Trenberth were looking into. The statistical analyses by Tamino, Cahill, Foster and Abraham, and others (see #531) – which you are unable to deal with – demonstrate that there’s been no change in the warming trend, which now shows signs of acceleration. Surface warming appears to be like a staircase: it goes up, it comes to a landing, levels off, and then goes up again.

    If you and the other climate septics want to show that there was in fact a pause, then it’s your responsibility to prove that the imbalance that causes the warming trend ceased. Either that or that the laws of physics relating to CO2 no longer obtain.

    The only way you can explain your pause is with magic. The only way you can plausibly claim a pause in surface warming is by cherry picking your start point and using insufficient data.

    The NASA press release you keep on referring to is inaccurate.

    “One of the most prominent ideas is that the bottom half of the ocean is taking up the slack, but supporting evidence is slim.”

    This is incorrect. If you believe that it is correct, then find one serious paper that claims that “the bottom half of the ocean is taking up the slack.” The Balmaseda paper, which Trenberth co-authored, does not make that claim. Your argument is a straw man, and even the press release recognizes that:

    “Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up. Some recent studies reporting deep-ocean warming were, in fact, referring to the warming in the upper half of the ocean but below the topmost layer, which ends about 0.4 mile (700 meters) down.”
    (See my comment #531)

    Again, you have a serious reading comprehension problem. Also note: according to co-author Felix Landerer, “during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated.” Your source does not support you.

    Here’s more:

    “The global average sea-surface temperature, which set a record last year, is likely to equal or surpass that record in 2015.”
    https://www.wmo.int/media/content/wmo-2015-likely-be-warmest-record-2011-2015- warmest-five-year-period

    The oceans are large and deep. It takes a great deal of energy to warm them up, and they warm up slowly.

    “According to preliminary figures as of the end of September 2015, 2011-15 was the world’s warmest five-year period on record, at about 0.57°C (1.01°F) above the average for the standard 1961-90 reference period. It was the warmest five-year period on record for Asia, Europe, South America and Oceania, and for North America. WMO compiled the five-year analysis because it provides a longer-term climate signal than the annual report.”

    If there was a pause, how can you explain that the last five years have been the warmest on record, and that the previous decade was the warmest? How can you explain that, even starting with the denialists’ cherry picked start point, the surface warming trend is now statistically significant? That would not be the case if warming had stopped.

  780. #781 Bernard J.
    December 31, 2015

    Desertphile.

    One lives in hope…

    It’s actually amusing to observe the deniers here say that there’s no hockey stick but there is a pause, when in fact it’s the other way around…

    Because, inherent in their claim of a “pause” is the very acknowledgement of the fact that temperature of the planet was* rising above the noise of the ‘handle’ of the hockey stick – their arguments are internally inconsistent!

    [* and still is…]

  781. #782 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Desertphile #772

    “Dave: Funny how Mann doesn’t like his work being called fraudulent but he has no problem calling other people frauds.”

    Funny how people defamed and libeled get upset at being defamed and libeled. Funny how you cannot show where and when Dr. Mann called anyone a fraud.”
    ————–

    ” Phil, I would immediately delete anything you receive from this fraud”

    “Hi Andy, The McIntyre and McKitrick paper is pure scientific fraud.”

    It’s amazing you did not know this. You should really try and get outside of your echo chamber before you embarrass yourself further.

  782. #783 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    BBD #774

    “Just as you, Dave, are apparently not capable of reading the recent comments. Please see # 767.”

    You should send your comments to the IPCC to show them that they are wrong. I hear they are open to suggestions. Maybe they will give you Nobel Laureate status like Michael Mann. Don’t forget to let them know that you have internet access and that your name is “BBD”. I wouldn’t want them to spell it wrong on the certificate. Honest, they won’t think you’re a kook or anything. Before you even start the argument the IPCC recognition of the hiatus is in reference to the surface temperatures and not the troposphere. Obviously the trop temps are much worse.

  783. #784 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Bernard J #775

    “So you think that there was a “hiatus” Dave?”
    —————
    Even a person with low intelligence should be able to determine in my comment that the hiatus is the opinion of the IPCC and not mine. I’m just repeating their words.

    “When did the planet stop heating? When did it start again? How do you know?”

    Wait…what? Why are you asking me? Why don’t you actually read the IPCC report like I did. The hiatus is explained in detail there. Obviously since they admit that their models can’t replicate the hiatus they can only speculate themselves on some of your concerns. I could copy and paste if you want but don’t you think you should actually read the report yourself?

  784. #785 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Desertphile #777

    “Let me guess….. you accept *ONLY* the three sentences of the 1,100-page report where the IPCC mentioned a slow-down in surface warming (a “hiatus”). ”

    Since your comment is so demonstrably false and easy to disprove we have determined

    1) You have not read the IPCC report, and
    2) You will make up anything to advance an argument, so

    therefore we know you’re not interested in an honest debate. Why don’t you read the report before you embarrass yourself further with your delusional nonsense?

  785. #786 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    Dave: “1) You have not read the IPCC report, and 2) You will make up anything to advance an argument, so “

    Dr. Sigmund Freud called your behavior “projection.” You should ask your health care provider about it.

  786. #787 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Bernard J #780

    “It’s actually amusing to observe the deniers here say that there’s no hockey stick but there is a pause, when in fact it’s the other way around…”
    ———–

    Glad to think you think the IPCC are “deniers”.

  787. #788 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    # 782 Dave

    You should send your comments to the IPCC to show them that they are wrong. I hear they are open to suggestions. Maybe they will give you Nobel Laureate status like Michael Mann. Don’t forget to let them know that you have internet access and that your name is “BBD”. I wouldn’t want them to spell it wrong on the certificate. Honest, they won’t think you’re a kook or anything.

    Okay, you weren’t able to understand what I wrote at #767. Just indicate where you got stuck and I will try again.

    Before you even start the argument the IPCC recognition of the hiatus is in reference to the surface temperatures and not the troposphere. Obviously the trop temps are much worse.

    How do you think surface temperatures are set, Dave? Why not explain that to us, without reference to lower tropospheric temperature. It would be interesting.

  788. #789 ohandy1
    United States
    December 31, 2015

    Wow, I just became a Mark Steyn fan.

    You know you’re not a journalist when you start looking for “dog whistles” and crying “racism” to defend your political position.

    Global Warming is a political issue far more than a science issue. Why NOT bring in a political commentator?

  789. #790 Greg Laden
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1: Because it isn’t.

  790. #791 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1: “Global Warming is a political issue far more than a science issue.”

    “…. to me.”

    There. I helped you.

  791. #792 dean
    United States
    December 31, 2015

    Wow, I just learned ohandy1 is an idiot? How did I find out? His entire post at 787.

  792. #793 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    Dean, I know better than to try to dissuade the dogma faithful when it comes to gw. But whether you agree with Steyn or not his comments on the state of the courts was spot on and more than a little amusing. The whole “racism” thing blew any credibility for the OP.

    And if gw wasn’t political why are all the fights over it done in the political arena? Scientists disagree, politicians use their opposing positions to fight for political positions.

    I guess you’re just a PC denier.

  793. #794 SteveP
    New Long Cave
    December 31, 2015

    Some denialists seem to take the phrase “global warming” to mean “universal warming”, which means that they feel justified in falsifying all of climatology because universal warming, everywhere continuously, steadily in all parts of the atmosphere and on sea and on land isn’t happening, therefore, to them, there is no “global warming”. Maybe if we had used greater semantic precision and called it something like, I don’t know, “Overall Terrestrial Surface Warming Trend”, or OTSWT, we would have fewer idiots throwing monkey poo at us today. At any rate, it is starting to look like we have already seriously broken the climate that we evolved in and have replaced it with something new and exciting, and much more challenging. But since we are all descended from cave dwellers, I think we as a species will be able to handle the new Exxon Koch Klimate just fine. And the ascendancy of psychopathic Neanderthal traits in GOP presidential candidates and corporate leaders actually may bode well for our future as a society. Grubs and berries anyone?

  794. #795 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    ====>791

    See? very political.

  795. #796 dean
    United States
    December 31, 2015

    “And if gw wasn’t political why are all the fights over it done in the political arena?”

    Because the people who don’t understand, or simply deny, the science (like you seem to do) keep putting it there.

    I’m not surprised that denial of racism in you folks goes with denial of science – those things seem to go along with your philosophy.

  796. #797 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1

    Describing a scientific study as fraudulent instead of publishing a reply in a reviewed journal is a political act.

  797. #798 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    In fact the public expression of contrarian views by anyone lacking domain expertise is a political act.

  798. #799 SteveP
    Vitriol Tank Eleven
    December 31, 2015

    #790 #792 Dear pea brained science free Kochroach troll:
    Hi there! It is going to be interesting to see what mechanism you denialist trolls use to hide your shame when the inevitability of climate disruption impacts y’all. At what point will your whole Flat Earth Denialist Religion and the belief in a Supernatural Climate Savior come crashing down?

    I would love to be proven wrong, and be able to spend the rest of my days in a more normal climate regime. But thanks to the assholes at Exxon, Koch, Peabody Coal, and the RNC, that isn’t going to happen. The Affluenza Party has wrecked the climate pickup truck, and yes, that is political and yes, you stupid bastards are going to suffer for it like the rest of us now. So enjoy the rest of the century. It’s going to be huuuuge! Have a nice century!

  799. #800 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1, tell us: Are you so dense that you cannot tell the difference between the scientific issues surrounding qualifying and quantifying AGW, and the resulting political issues surrounding enacting policies and regulations to deal with it and its effects?

    Seriously? Otherwise, you’re attempting to make climate science political. And failing, BTW…

  800. #801 SteveP
    Water world
    December 31, 2015
  801. #802 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    dean, the science might be more believable if it wasn’t so tied to nonsense like chicken little cries of racism.

    You have to infer racism which can only happen if you’re predisposed to see the world that way. it’s like sexual innuendo having no meaning to someone who doesn’t put life in a sexual context. If you don’t think in terms of racism it’s just not there.

    When scientists have political power used against them, in academia or public service, there is just cause to question the nature of the “science”. Warming I can believe, man made warming isn’t so clear.

    The predictions of climate change haven’t been very accurate, only their veracity and severity of calamity keep them in public discourse.

    And isn’t it funny how anyone who disagrees with YOUR understanding of science is a “science denier”. Even your verbiage “you folks” lends itself to a prejudice regarding what I and “folks like me” believe.

    I am unconvinced of man made global warming. I’m completely unconcerned about it. I am extremely grateful that gas is back under $2/gal.

  802. #803 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy

    I am unconvinced of man made global warming. I’m completely unconcerned about it. I am extremely grateful that gas is back under $2/gal.

    Science denial as a political statement.

  803. #804 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    And isn’t it funny how anyone who disagrees with YOUR understanding of science is a “science denier”

    That’s the understanding of science. You either do or you don’t.

  804. #805 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    I am unconvinced of man made global warming. I’m completely unconcerned about it.

    That will last.. until the first AGW-caused disaster hits you, personally. Given the type of “you folks” (your term), that will most likely be “financial” (as that’s what “you folks” hold SO DEAR).

  805. #806 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    When scientists have political power used against them, in academia or public service, there is just cause to question the nature of the “science”.

    Let’s correct that for you:

    When scientists have political power used against them, in academia or public service, there is just cause to question the nature of those using the political power against them.

  806. #807 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    Hey Brainstorm, it was dean who wrote:
    “I’m not surprised that denial of racism in you folks goes with denial of science “.

    In case you missed it, i put the term in quotes because it wasn’t my term.

    As for your second comment, it still means what I said, it’s the dissenters who get politically attacked.

  807. #808 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1, “Scientists” are the dissenters who don’t believe the ideology and made-up “truthiness” of the anti-science crowd.

    Per your comment, you’re saying “it’s the scientists who get politically attacked”.

    Yes.

  808. #809 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    How do you identify a radical environmental kook? Say you don’t care about their issue and watch the Ad Hom attacks roll in.

    The OP is a work of manure. Sorry Greg, it just was.

    Calling someone a science denier is just stupid anyway. Science isn’t a doctrine that can be denied, its an activity of study. If I don’t ascribe to the same conclusions as someone else doesn’t make me a denier of the activity of study, only the conclusions derived from it.

    But perhaps that’s too much thought. It’s easier to label someone a denier as though that makes the accused look stupid instead of the accuser.

    Too funny. I’ve never seen so many kooks in one place.

  809. #810 dean
    United States
    December 31, 2015

    the science might be more believable if it wasn’t so tied to nonsense like chicken little cries of racism.

    The science is not tied to racism, it stands for itself, if you take the effort to understand it. It is clear it isn’t.

    The fact that steyn is a racist comes from his other views. I’m not sure what to make of your repeatedly missing the point: a defensive move on your part or simply blatant dishonesty.

    Calling someone a science denier is just stupid anyway

    When you (you and other folks who do it) make statements like “I’m am unconvinced of man made global warming” you are denying the validity of the science that supports it.

    Apparently your lack of knowledge extends to an understanding of English.

  810. #811 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    Not, ohandy1, it’s far from being too much thought. You had it right when you said, “If I don’t ascribe to the same conclusions as someone else doesn’t make me a denier of the activity of study, only the conclusions derived from it.”

    We summarize all the verbiage in one O! handy term:

    Denier. As you yourself have helpfully defined.

  811. #812 Rob Honeycutt
    December 31, 2015

    Dave @781…

    Those were comments made in private emails. Steyn published his comments in the National Review.

  812. #813 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    Yes, let’s tweak that so that its original intent becomes clear, then Dave can pick at it again:

    “Funny how people defamed and libeled by being labeled a fraud get upset at being defamed and libeled. Funny how you cannot show where and when Dr. Mann publicly called anyone a fraud.”

    Have at it, Dave…

  813. #814 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    too funny.

    Ya’ll act as if science is a sentient being with whom there can be no dispute.

    Wait, that would make Science a god and you (non-denier types) the religious faithful. Who would have figured that?

    Get a grip, science is an activity; not a deity. This activity can and does produce erroneous conclusions. To be unconvinced of a conclusion isn’t to deny the existence of the activity of science itself, only the veracity of the results of a particular study.

    But why let reality invade this wonderful discourse.

  814. #815 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1, you act is if science is a domain of politics which can be forced to follow any ideology.

    Get a grip. Science is the vehicle with which Mankind determines the nature of Reality. The collective activity of conducting science can and does at times produce erroneous conclusions which are (usually) quickly identified and corrected as repetitious research leads to consensus of what is and is not erroneous. No “result” is considered to be factual without such scrutiny — even if the details are not worked out 100%.

    To be unconvinced of a conclusion that has been intensively studied, researched, analyzed, reviewed, and arrived at by consensus by thousands of experts whose careers have focused on the topic and its issues, especially in order to defend and adhere to a political ideology is not just the epitome of arrogance, it’s self-destructively stupid.

    But why let that reality invade the wondrous bliss of ideological ignorance and smug self-righteousness…

  815. #816 BBD
    December 31, 2015

    ohandy1

    Ya’ll act as if science is a sentient being with whom there can be no dispute.

    No, we don’t. But if you want to dispute science, you need to have the relevant expertise to do so.

    Neither Steyn nor his sources make the grade, so their actions are by default, political, not scientific.

  816. #817 Rob Honeycutt
    December 31, 2015

    Ohandy1… The great thing about science is, it’s true whether you believe it or not.

  817. #818 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    BBD #776

    “Okay, you weren’t able to understand what I wrote at #767”

    Yeah, it’s really hard to understand your argument that there is no hiatus relies upon the redefining the traditional metrics to track temperature to now defining it as “the climate system”. That’s pretty deep stuff. That’s the first time I ever heard that. Really.
    Unfortunately for you that is not how the IPCC defines it. Your semantical games aside, and as per my previous post, not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WO23iEOR38o/UuQtcntVxEI/AAAAAAAAFtQ/hgupxUPsy-M/s1600/www.cgd.ucar.edu+cas+Trenberth+website-archive+trenberth.papers-moved+Energy_Imbalance_OHC_v6_ss.pdf.png

    All which leads us back to what I originally said

    “The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.”

  818. #819 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 31, 2015

    Dave: “Yeah, it’s really hard to understand your argument that there is no hiatus ….”

    No evidence of a “hiatus.” No geophysicists think it happened; no data show it happened; it only happened among the USA media.

    “Regardless, Mann has no problem defaming people in a public forum as well”

    Have you any evidence for that claim?

  819. #820 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Rob Honeytcutt #809

    “Those were comments made in private emails. Steyn published his comments in the National Review.”

    So what? I don’t understand your point. If your point is that you can not be sued for defamation because it was a private conversation that is ridiculous and not worthy of a response so I assume that’s not your point. If your point is that Mann did not believe that his comments were ever going to be made public that in no way changes what I said

    “Funny how Mann doesn’t like his work being called fraudulent but he has no problem calling other people frauds.”

    Regardless, Mann has no problem defaming people in a public forum as well

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/warning_to_michael_mann_apologise_for_your_lie_or_risk_facing_from_me_what_/

    Incidentally, why don’t you spend your time and energies trying to convince people like Neal King or Robert Way about the “quality” of MBH98 instead of the anonymous posters here? Never mind, rhetorical question. The answer is obvious.

  820. #821 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Brainstorms #810

    Fabricating quotes now. Classy. Btw, have you stopped beating your wife?

  821. #822 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Desertphile #813

    “Dave: “1) You have not read the IPCC report, and 2) You will make up anything to advance an argument, so “

    Dr. Sigmund Freud called your behavior “projection.” You should ask your health care provider about it.”
    ———————

    Devastating rejoinder! Nice that you don’t even try to refute it but just jump right into snark. Thanks for highlighting your fabrications. I was worried it might get lost in 800+ comments. I bow to your superior scientific knowledge.

  822. #823 Dave
    December 31, 2015

    Desertphile #821

    “Have you any evidence for that claim?”

    No, none at all.

  823. #824 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 31, 2015

    Dave: No, none at all.

    Then why did you make the claim? Just an asshole, are you?

  824. #825 Brainstorms
    December 31, 2015

    Dave, #820. I’m not married, but I sure had a good time beating YOUR wife. (She loves it, BTW…)

  825. #826 Desertphile
    December 31, 2015

    “I’m not married, but I sure had a good time beating YOUR wife. (She loves it, BTW…)”

    Well, the spanking part anyhow.

  826. #827 Chris O'Neill
    December 31, 2015

    Andrew Bolt warns Mann to apologise or else.

    At least Bolt has a small future in comedy.

  827. #828 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    December 31, 2015

    Chris O’Neill: Andrew Bolt warns Mann to apologize or else.

    At least Bolt has a small future in comedy.”

    It was freaky to see “Dave” cite a web page that states Dr. Mann did the exact opposite of what “Dave” said Dr. Mann did. Gosh, denialists these days don’t even seem to bother trying any more….

  828. #829 Bernard J.
    December 31, 2015

    I asked:

    So you think that there was a “hiatus” Dave?”

    and Dave responded with:

    Even a person with low intelligence should be able to determine in my comment that the hiatus is the opinion of the IPCC and not mine. I’m just repeating their words.

    Even a person of low intelligent would be able to discern, Dave, that I was asking you what you thought. I’m not sure how to make this any clearer, short of repeating it here and pointing out that this is what I was doing. If it doesn’t take now then I’m not sure that you’re intellectually quaified to be operating a computer keyboard.

    And if you’re simply repeating your interpretation of that particular part* of the AR5, you must at least be giving it some credence and thus subscribing to your notion of what it means.

    So I ask again: do you believe that global warming stopped at any point in the last, say, 20 years?

    [* The mention of a hiatus in AR5 is not a straightforward statement that the warming due to human carbon emissions stopped or “paused”, as you seem to imagine. Have you actually read the report with care? Check this from Box 9.2, for example:

    Internal Climate Variability
    Hiatus periods of 10 to 15 years can arise as a manifestation of internal decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long-term externally forced trend. Internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years for long-term climate change (Box 2.2, Section 2.4.3). Furthermore, the timing of internal decadal climate variability is not expected to be matched by the CMIP5 historical simulations, owing to the predictability horizon of at most 10 to 20 years (Section 11.2.2; CMIP5 historical simulations are typically started around nominally 1850 from a control run). However, climate models exhibit individual decades of GMST trend hiatus even during a prolonged phase of energy uptake of the climate system (e.g., Figure 9.8; Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Knight et al., 2009), in which case the energy budget would be balanced by increasing subsurface–ocean heat uptake (Meehl et al., 2011, 2013a; Guemas et al., 2013).

    Owing to sampling limitations, it is uncertain whether an increase in the rate of subsurface–ocean heat uptake occurred during the past 15 years (Section 3.2.4). However, it is very likely2 that the climate system, including the ocean below 700 m depth, has continued to accumulate energy over the period 1998–2010 (Section 3.2.4, Box 3.1). Consistent with this energy accumulation, global mean sea level has continued to rise during 1998–2012, at a rate only slightly and insignificantly lower than during 1993–2012 (Section 3.7). The consistency between observed heat-content and sea level changes yields high confidence in the assessment of continued ocean energy accumulation, which is in turn consistent with the positive radiative imbalance of the climate system (Section 8.5.1; Section 13.3, Box 13.1). By contrast, there is limited evidence that the hiatus in GMST trend has been accompanied by a slower rate of increase in ocean heat content over the depth range 0 to 700 m, when comparing the period 2003–2010 against 1971–2010. There is low agreement on this slowdown, since three of five analyses show a slowdown in the rate of increase while the other two show the increase continuing unabated (Section 3.2.3, Figure 3.2)

    This is committee-speak for the phenomenon that I, BBD, and others have already pointed out to you: short-term noise in the system is such that a period of ~1-2 decades is required to detect with confidence the signal masked by said noise. Their employment of “hiatus” is an unfortunate response to the meme propagated by those trying to establish the a suspicion in the lay public that the phenomenon of human-caused warming is not certain, and this absorption of the idea of a “pause” or “hiatus” by some in the technical community demonstrates the success of deniers’ efforts to delay reduction of emissions. If one digs into the nuts and bolts of the science reviewed, though, one will see that no one with professional competence thinks that the planet stopped accumulating heat.

    And if you give credence to the mention of a hiatus in AR5 you will of course be similarly accepting of their array of hockey sticks displayed in Figure 5.7. And whilst you contemplate those hockey sticks, you might like to think on where the 2015 mean global temperature sits on the graphs..]

  829. #830 Bernard J.
    December 31, 2015

    …the science might be more believable if it wasn’t so tied to nonsense like chicken little cries of racism

    Logical fallacy – poisoning the well.

    You lose.

  830. #831 ohandy1
    December 31, 2015

    You folks are still wringing your hands over this?

    ooh Brainstorm, the OP was about a political event. It was testimony before Congress if I recall. A major objection to what was said was an allegation of racism by Mr. Laden. Substantiated by “dog whistle” key words that only…. (dogs?)… can understand. Not sure how that works.

  831. #832 Chris O'Neill
    December 31, 2015

    when Kevin Trenberth writes peer-reviewed papers seeking to explain the pause it must be because..

    Yet another dishonest strawman. Scientists like Trenberth are entitled to investigate and study statistically INsignificant phenomena such as the so called “pause” that ended in 2013. Scientific curiosity does not mean someone is “willfully self-deluding” or “intellectually handicapped”, denialist misrepresentation notwithstanding.

  832. #833 Eli Rabett
    http://rabett.blogspot.com
    December 31, 2015

    Silly bunnies, the Pause is so 2012. Today we has the SURGE!

  833. #834 Rob Honeycutt
    December 31, 2015

    Dave… What is the damage incurred making such a comment to two people, as opposed to making such a comment to two million people?

  834. #835 Rob Honeycutt
    December 31, 2015

    Dave… Mann’s tweet about Andrew Bolt was accurate. Thus, not libel.

    As for Neil and Rob, they don’t need convincing. They know Mann’s 98/99 work was early research and yet still produced results consistent with all subsequent reconstructions.

  835. #836 Desertphile
    January 1, 2016

    Rob Honeycutt: Dave… Mann’s tweet about Andrew Bolt was accurate. Thus, not libel.”

    Dr. Mann immediately corrected his mistake; “Dave” stated the exact opposite, citing the web page that showed “Dave” was wrong. Funny!

  836. #837 SteveP
    Darkside of the planet
    January 1, 2016

    Happy New Year All! This promises to be an exciting year for science fans and science bashers alike! If the climate suddenly returns to mid 20th century averages I will be happy to have one less concern in life, and will humbly eat crow and join in the search for the cause of it. Science bashers will be able to go “See, I told you so!” and continue in their anti-intellectual tribe’s tribal pursuits.

    If the climate continues its present course, though, and continues to closely follow the predictions of atmospheric physics, with the troposphere warming, the sea level rising, glaciers melting, more frequent massive storms, more weird polar temperature swings, more jet stream perturbations, less polar ice, and more severe flooding, we will definitely have excitement, though it will be of the unfortunate kind. Loss of food, water, shelter, and/or societal instability due to climate change cannot in anyway be considered fortunate.

    Science bashers will have the excitement of having to work harder and harder to save face and try to not look like a flock of highly embarrassed, naked Limbaugh lambs being led away from the sheep shearer. But maybe sheep are too stupid to feel embarrassment, I don’t know.

    I look forward to 2016. No matter what, it is going to be , in the parlance of the rabble rousing Mr. T. Rump, “’uuge”!

    So Happy New Year!

  837. #838 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    #818 Dave

    Yeah, it’s really hard to understand your argument that there is no hiatus relies upon the redefining the traditional metrics to track temperature to now defining it as “the climate system”. That’s pretty deep stuff. That’s the first time I ever heard that. Really.

    These are the basics of physical climatology so I am happy to be able to introduce them to you on this first day of the New Year 😉

    However, there is no ‘redefinition’ of the traditional metrics here, nor of what is meant by ‘the climate system’. I encourage you to check using the astonishingly powerful tools available to any internet user.

    Unfortunately for you that is not how the IPCC defines it [the climate system].

    That would be surprising. You didn’t provide a reference. Please do so and we can explore this further.

    even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.

    First, I don’t think you’ve understood Trenberth correctly. Second, my guess is that you didn’t read my comment carefully, or you would have noticed that I stated (correctly) that OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. Here is the reference figure for you.

    All which leads us back to what I originally said

    No, it really doesn’t. It leads back to me having to ask you to read what I wrote at #767 again, carefully, then indicate where you cease to be able to follow the argument so I can try to explain it more clearly.

  838. #839 Dave
    January 1, 2016

    Bernard J #829

    Bernard J #765- ” The simple fact is that there was never any pause.”

    Dave # 773- “The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.”

    Bernard J #829 – Copies small section of Box 9.2 that says there is a hiatus. Tries to rationalize the hiatus by putting in a caveat (* The mention of a hiatus in AR5 is not a straightforward statement that the warming due to human carbon emissions stopped or “paused”, as you seem to imagine. Have you actually read the report with care?)

    “Forgets” to mention numerous other parts including Box 9.2 conclusion

    “In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 1998–2012 as compared to the trend
    during 1951–2012, is attributable in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in
    external forcing (expert judgment, medium confidence). The forcing trend reduction is primarily due to a negative forcing trend from
    both volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing
    trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol
    forcing trend.
    Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus. There is medium confidence that the
    GMST trend difference between models and observations during 1998–2012 is to a substantial degree caused by internal variability,
    with possible contributions from forcing error and some CMIP5 models overestimating the response to increasing GHG and other
    anthropogenic forcing. The CMIP5 model trend in ERF shows no apparent bias against the AR5 best estimate over 1998–2012. However,
    confidence in this assessment of CMIP5 ERF trend is low, primarily because of the uncertainties in model aerosol forcing and processes,
    which through spatial heterogeneity might well cause an undetected global mean ERF trend error even in the absence of a trend in the
    global mean aerosol loading. ”

    …then doesn’t mention that because of the hiatus IPCC lowered their expectations of future warming

    “Over the last two decades the observed rate of increase in GMST
    has been at the lower end of rates simulated by CMIP5 models
    (Figure 11.25a). This hiatus in GMST rise is discussed in detail
    in Box 9.2 (Chapter 9), where it is concluded that the hiatus is
    attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of
    increase in ERF and a cooling contribution from internal variability
    (expert judgment, medium confidence). The decline in the rate of
    increase in ERF is attributed primarily to natural (solar and volcanic)
    forcing but there is low confidence in quantifying the role
    of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in
    the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in
    the aerosol forcing trend. Concerning the higher rate of warming
    in CMIP5 simulations it is concluded that there is a substantial
    contribution from internal variability but that errors in ERF and
    in model responses may also contribute. There is low confidence
    in this assessment because of uncertainties in aerosol forcing in
    particular.
    The observed hiatus has important implications for near-term projections
    of GMST. A basic issue concerns the sensitivity of projections
    to the choice of reference period. Figure 11.25b and c shows
    the 5 to 95% ranges for CMIP5 projections using a 1986–2005
    reference period (light grey), and the same projections using a
    2006–2012 reference period (dark grey). The latter projections
    are cooler, and the effect of using a more recent reference period
    appears similar to the effect of initialization (discussed in Section
    11.3.2.1.1 and shown in Figure 11.25c for RCP4.5). Using this more
    recent reference period, the 5 to 95% range for the mean GMST
    in 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 is 0.36°C to 0.79°C (using
    all RCP scenarios, weighted to ensure equal weights per model
    and using an estimate of the observed GMST anomaly for (2006–
    2012)–(1986–2005) of 0.16°C). This range may be compared with
    the range of 0.48°C to 1.15°C obtained from the CMIP5 models
    using the original 1986–2005 reference period. ”

    …and then after lowering future projections ***specifically because of the hiatus*** the IPCC admits that they still haven’t lowered them enough to account for the spread between observations and models

    “The discrepancy between simulated and observed GMST trends during 1998–2012 could be explained in part by a tendency for some
    CMIP5 models to simulate stronger warming in response to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration than is consistent
    with observations (Section 10.3.1.1.3, Figure 10.4). Averaged over the ensembles of models assessed in Section 10.3.1.1.3, the bestestimate
    GHG and other anthropogenic (OA) scaling factors are less than one (though not significantly so, Figure 10.4), indicating
    that the model-mean GHG and OA responses should be scaled down to best match observations. This finding provides evidence that
    some CMIP5 models show a larger response to GHGs and other anthropogenic factors (dominated by the effects of aerosols) than
    the real world (medium confidence). As a consequence, it is argued in Chapter 11 that near-term model projections of GMST increase
    should be scaled down by about 10% (Section 11.3.6.3). This downward scaling is, however, not sufficient to explain the model-mean
    overestimate of GMST trend over the hiatus period.”

    Thanks for your help Bernard J. with the ” simple fact is that there was never any pause.” Have you people ever heard of the Streisand effect? Being it’s now 2016 I wonder if you know who said this famous quote in 2015?

    “Have you actually read the report with care?”

  839. #840 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    …then doesn’t mention that because of the hiatus IPCC lowered their expectations of future warming

    Near-term warming. Not all future warming. And such an adjustment may have been premature and unnecessary.

    The use of the term ‘hiatus’ to describe a slowdown in the rate of surface warming is incorrect. It is unfortunate that ‘seepage’ from contrarian discourse has contaminated even the IPCC process, but such is life.

  840. #841 Dave
    January 1, 2016

    Rob Honeycutt #834

    “Dave… What is the damage incurred making such a comment to two people, as opposed to making such a comment to two million people?”

    Great point!!!( your fictitious numbers aside). Mann can claim the moral high ground because he defames people in small numbers. Just like the Sand Bernadino killers can claim moral high ground because the killed fewer people than the Paris killers. Thanx for finally admitting that Mann caused damage.

  841. #842 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    Dave

    Since you are such an avid reader of the scientific literature, you will be familiar with Schmidt et al. (2014) which shows that running the CMIP5 models with revised forcings based on real-world forcing change brings them into close agreement with observed temperature.

    The models cannot and do not predict the predominant ENSO state nor do they predict volcanism (how could they?). When real world volcanism and ENSO states are accounted for, the model – observation temperature discrepancy largely disappears.

    As AR5 concludes, the recent discrepancy between the models and observed temperature can be ascribed to a combination of natural variability and incorrect model forcings specified for the AR5 runs.

  842. #843 Dave
    January 1, 2016

    BBD #837

    The IPCC definition is in my post above. What do you think “total depth” means in the Trenberth graph? If you look at your own link closely you will see that the rate slows down as well. Do I have to pull out the IPCC again?

    “ocean heating rate (OHR) should correspond, as oceans have a much
    larger effective heat capacity than land and atmosphere, and therefore
    serve as the main reservoir for heat added to the Earth–atmosphere
    system (Box 3.1). Wong et al. (2006) showed that interannual variations
    in these two data sources are in good agreement for 1992–2003.
    In the ensuing 5 years, however, Trenberth and Fasullo (2010) note
    that the two diverge with ocean in situ measurements (Levitus et al.,
    2009), indicating a decline in OHR, in contrast to expectations from the
    observed net TOA radiation. The divergence after 2004 is referred to as
    ‘‘missing energy’’ by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b), who further argue
    that the main sink of the missing energy likely occurs at ocean depths
    below 275 m. ”

    I’m short on time and travelling today. More tomorrow.

  843. #844 Bernard J.
    January 1, 2016

    It’s not sinking in Dave, is it? In spite of multiple people explaining it to you, you aren’t cottoning on to the fact that the “pause” is an artifact of statistics, cherry-picked small intervals, and an invalid concentration on one component of the global energy sink – even though some in the bureaucracy of the IPCC had also been sucked into the meme that you still clutch dearly to your bosom. You should have gotten a clue from the contents of the rest of the AR5 box that you felt needed to be pasted, when it referred to “GMST”…

    I note that you have avoided answering my questions though. So, when did the pause start, and when did it stop?

    For brownie points, can you point to the “pause” on the most recent graph that I can dig up at a moment’s notice?

    Where is the “pause”?

  844. #845 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    The divergence after 2004 is referred to as
    ‘‘missing energy’’ by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b), who further argue that the main sink of the missing energy likely occurs at ocean depths below 275 m.

    Would you mind posting a link to the full paper from which you abstracted the figure you linked at # 818? I’d like to go over what it says about OHC at different ocean depths.

    If you look at your own link closely you will see that the rate slows down as well.

    No, it doesn’t. The measurements clearly show that the rate of OHC increase in the 0 – 2000m layer is accelerating. How you could interpret the data any other way is a mystery to me.

  845. #846 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    I must admit I can’t really see it either Bernard: GISTEMP annual means, 1979 – present.

  846. #847 Rob Honeycutt
    January 1, 2016

    Dave… It’s a false comparison to discuss murder by terrorists and reveals the desperation of your position to do so.

    Damages is the point of a libel case. The intent to publicly cause damage to another person’s reputation. Private correspondences to a small group of people cannot be considered libel. If Mann had published such comments as a NYT’s OpEd, then there would have clear cause to file a libel suit against him. But he did not.

  847. #848 Rob Honeycutt
    January 1, 2016

    Dave… In any libel case the first thing that is required is for the person who believes themselves to be libeled to ask for a retraction. Bolt did that and Mann retracted the use of the term “lie” used in his tweet and deleted that specific tweet.

    In the Steyn case, Mann did the same thing. He asked the NR and Steyn to retract claims of “fraud.” They refused. Now they’re in court.

  848. #849 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    January 1, 2016

    Rob Honeycutt: “Dave… In any libel case the first thing that is required is for the person who believes themselves to be libeled to ask for a retraction. Bolt did that and Mann retracted the use of the term “lie” used in his tweet and deleted that specific tweet.

    In the Steyn case, Mann did the same thing. He asked the NR and Steyn to retract claims of “fraud.” They refused. Now they’re in court.”

    Indeed, Dr. Mann correctly changed the word “lie” to “falsehoods.” Bolt is paid to write and publish falsehoods, not lies. “Dave” wrote, in part, “… Mann has no problem defaming people in a public forum as well” yet the URL “Dave” posted shows the exact opposite. How very Creationism of “Dave.”

    At the top of the page, Bolt appears to have started his silly complaint with “Open and shut case. Michael Mann is a liar.” Bolt then failed to explain what lie, if any, Dr. Mann has told.

    So… the final score: “Dave” cited a source that showed “Dave” is wrong, and “Dave’s” source engaged in the very same behavior “Dave” falsely said Dr. Mann engaged in.

  849. #850 Bernard J.
    January 1, 2016

               Lost.

    One black-and-white global warming pause, answers to the name ‘Hiatus’. Last observed in the imaginations of climate change deniers. Information sought on it’s location – where first seen, where last seen, what it did in between…

    Please note: some people appear to suffer confusion in discerning Hiatus from a vaguely similar but fundamentally very different beast – the offspring of a mating of ‘Inherent-Short-Term-Noise’ with ‘Egregious-Start-Point-Cherry-Pickings’ – which is of no value whatsoever. To save responders any potential embarrassment, it would be useful to recognise the difference before replying.

    Also, Hiatus has demonstrated a strong aversion to hockey sticks, and so it should not be approached with any in hand.

  850. #851 Bernard J.
    January 1, 2016

    BBD at 846, I toyed with the idea of going with WfT, but I thought that a static version might prevent the numpties from trying on a diddle! 😉

  851. #852 Chris O'Neill
    January 1, 2016

    Using this more
    recent reference period, the 5 to 95% range for the mean GMST
    in 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 is 0.36°C to 0.79°C

    So the average global warming expected in 2012 over a 30 year period that included the “pause” was about 0.57°C.

    Obviously this means our worries are over.

  852. #853 johnl
    January 1, 2016

    From and Foster and Rahmstorf 2011(http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022/meta;jsessionid=81597A3EC85FADE55996729FF37845D3.c4.iopscience.cld.iop.org):

    ” The resultant adjusted data show clearly, both visually and when subjected to statistical analysis, that the rate of global warming due to other factors (most likely these are exclusively anthropogenic) has been remarkably steady during the 32 years from 1979 through 2010. There is no indication of any slowdown or acceleration of global warming, beyond the variability induced by these known natural factors.”

    Where’s the pause?

  853. #854 BBD
    January 1, 2016

    Dave

    Re: changing metrics, ocean heat content at different depths and your attempted misrepresentation of Trenberth in your previous comments, please see Trenberth & Fasullo (2013):

    An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976–1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.

    […]

    One approach to estimating ocean heat content (OHC) changes is by combining the available observations (surface, ocean, and from space) with an ocean model to produce a dynamically consistent ocean analysis. The new ORAS-4 ocean reanalysis from ECMWF has revealed very distinctive climate signatures that are realistic in magnitude and duration in terms of changes in OHC [Balmaseda et al., 2013] (Trenberthet al., submitted manuscript, 2013). Figure 10 shows the five ensemble members of the ORAS-4 ocean reanalysis OHC for 0–700 m and full-depth ocean and reveals the increased heating below 700 m depth of 0.21 W m −2 globally after 2000. The orange bars show the times of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions when sharp drops occurred in OHC that quantitatively match estimates of TOA radiative changes (such as in Pinatubo) [Trenberth and Dai, 2007], as demonstrated in a new analysis by Trenberth et al. (submitted manuscript, 2013). ORAS-4 also reveals a major cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean in association with the 1997–1998 El Nino event. Following this, the ocean warmed at a startling rate of over 1.2 W m −2 from the 2000s for the global ocean (or 0.84 W m −2 for the global area), and the overall heating is estimated to be 0.91 W m −2 globally when melting sea ice and other components are included as well [Balmaseda et al., 2013] (Trenberth et al., submitted manuscript, 2013). More than 30% of the heat was deposited into the ocean below 700 m in an unprecedented fashion in the post 2000 record from ORAS-4 and was identified mainly with changes in the tropical and subtropical winds in the Pacific.

  854. #855 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 1, 2016

    Before a new IPCC report is released, the denialists do what they can to discredit it. Then, when additional research or research that couldn’t be included in the reports shows that the IPCC has underestimated something, e.g. the melting of ice sheets and the subsequent increase in the rate of sea level rise, or given undue significance to something, e.g. the “hiatus,” then the denialists become dogmatic defenders of selected IPCC conclusions. It’s as though each report marks the end of scientific research, and then, out of nothing, the IPCC wizards conjure up a new one.

  855. #856 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 1, 2016

    #833
    Re. the “surge”:

    Perhaps we’ll now see denialists complaining about climate models because the models underestimate the recent increase in the rate of
    warming.
    http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/#more-6775

  856. #857 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 1, 2016

    #838

    In their recent paper, Stephan Lewandowsky, James S. Risbey, & Naomi Oreskes write:

    “…any trend will exhibit periods of statistical insignificance when the sample size (i.e., number of years considered) is small.”

    Furthermore:

    “Many articles assumed that the “hiatus” commenced around 1998, at which time temperature anomalies were considerably above the long-term trend. There is, however, considerable heterogeneity in published onset times, with the range spanning a decade (1993–2003). Similarly, there is considerable heterogeneity in the presumed duration of the “hiatus” across the same corpus of articles, with a range 10–20 (median 13 years, m = 13.5, s = 2.86)…

    The heterogeneity in onset and duration raises the possibility that the use of the term “hiatus” departs from normal scientific practice, which strives to define phenomena on the basis of clear and generally accepted criteria.”

    So, on the one hand, there isn’t enough data to reliably determine a “hiatus,” on the other, there is no agreement as to what the “hiatus” covers.

    Below is the abstract of a paper by Niamh Cahill, Stefan Rahmstorf and Andrew C Parnell, that likewise finds no meaningful evidence for a “hiatus”:

    Abstract
    “We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent ‘hiatus’, ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ∼1970. We conclude that the term ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ cannot be statistically justified.”

    Where’s the proof that these papers, and others that disprove the existence or validity of a “hiatus,” are wrong?

  857. #858 Christopher Winter
    January 1, 2016

    Locus (#734): My reading is just fine.

    I’ll say it again. Only the first quote you provide is from 2009. It does not mention Mann or his hockey stick.

    Horsepuckey! Refer to my #392, which repeats those quotes from Steyn’s July 2009 post. For your convenience, I’ll repeat them again here:

    Perhaps you missed “Dr. Mann’s bestest buddy Phil Jones” and “a cabal of insecure, neurotic, ideological enforcers like Michael E Mann” and “Along the way, he noticed this Tweet by one of the few scientists still willing to be associated with Mann, Gavin Schmidt, explaining why Doctor Fraudpants had no choice but to sue.”

    Once again: these are all from 2009.

    The import is clear: Steyn contends that Dr. Mann is trying to suppress honest dissent over his (Mann’s) incompetent (“fraudiulent”) science by filing a lawsuit. And not only Dr. Mann, but Phil Jones and Gavin Schmidt — members of the “cabal”, according to Steyn.

    Furthermore, RE your contention that similar statements made by Steyn after the lawsuit was filed are irrelevant: This too is horsepuckey. These statements establish a pattern of Steyn seeking to discredit Dr. Mann and other climate scientists, most recently twenty who signed a letter sent to President Obama, Attorney General Lynch, and OSTP Director Holdren on 1 September which calls for the use of the RICO statutes against organizations that distort the public’s understanding of climate science.

    This is from Steyn’s 18 September 2015 column:

    “That’s why I wrote the book, that’s why I’m sticking with this Mann vs Steyn case all the way to the Supreme Court, if necessary. The 20 additional disgraces to the profession above have, alas, made it clear that they’re not going to change their ways. And so climatology’s embrace of Lysenkoism — science subordinate to ideology — grows ever more shameless.”

    Steyn’s columns and books are a continuing political attack on the findings of climate science — part of a larger campaign that seeks to defend ways of doing business that are no longer defensible.

  858. #859 Locus
    Earth
    January 1, 2016

    #858 Winter:

    “Once again: these are all from 2009.

    The import is clear: Steyn contends that Dr. Mann is trying to suppress honest dissent over his (Mann’s) incompetent (“fraudiulent”) science by filing a lawsuit.”

    Now let me ask you one simple question. How could Steyn, in 2009, have been discussing a lawsuit that ***wasn’t filed until 2012 *** ????

    How is that possible?

    Because, for the last time, only the first quote of yours is from 2009 and it didn’t even mention Mann or his hockey stick! The rest are from 2014, after Mann sued and caused Steyn to rack up significant legal bills.

  859. #860 Locus
    Earth
    January 1, 2016

    #778 cosmicomics:

    1) “At the same time there was still a measurable energy imbalance that was adding energy to the climate system.”

    No there wasn’t a *measurable* energy imbalance. There was an imbalance implied by the climate models. That’s why the warmists are trying to find this energy in the oceans. If they can.

    2) “The statistical analyses by Tamino, Cahill, Foster and Abraham, and others (see #531) – which you are unable to deal with – demonstrate that there’s been no change in the warming trend.”

    Make up your mind. If there’s “no change in the warming trend” then why is Trenberth looking for the “missing heat” in the ocean?

    3) “Either that or that the laws of physics relating to CO2 no longer obtain.”

    Completely wrong. You don’t even understand global warming theory. Much of the additional heating is predicted to come not directly from the CO2 greenhouse effect but from far less quantified “feedback effects”. Warmist Andy Dessler explains,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9Sh1B-rV60

    4) The NASA press release was accurate. While the deep ocean was not modeled as storing a major percentage of the “missing heat” it nonetheless was expected to contribute to the energy budget.

    “With these revolutionary developments in ocean observation, many researchers have been asking some obvious, but very important, questions. Does the total sea level change equal the sum of heating and mass changes within estimated instrumental error? If not, which measurement systems might be biased or incomplete? Is neglect of a deep steric contribution preventing the budget from closing?

    In situ data deeper than the current 2000 m Argo sampling limit are the best way to address some of these questions.”

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/01/diagnosing-causes-of-sea-level-rise/#ITEM-17982-0

    So when the Llovel study showed no heating in the deep ocean it subtracted from the energy budget and that’s hurting Trenberth’s hypothesis,

    “Accounting for additional possible systematic uncertainties, the deep ocean (below 2,000 m) contributes -0.13+/- 0.72mmyr-1 to global sea-level rise and -0.08 +/- 0.43Wm2 to Earth’s energy balance.”

    And that’s why Trenberth is attacking the Llovel study,

    “The study was called “deeply flawed” by Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He faulted the authors’ choice of data and sampling methodology.”

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mystery-of-ocean-heat-deepens-as-climate-changes/

    5) “If there was a pause, how can you explain that the last five years have been the warmest on record, and that the previous decade was the warmest?”

    Easy. Because even if you flatten out a curve it’s still at its highest point. That’s why the warmists use this “warmest on record” nomenclature because it hides the fact that the temperature rise has leveled off. Let deGrasse Tyson explain it to you,

    http://youtu.be/Klgp_qDiRhQ?t=276

    And again I have to ask. If there was no pause, because the last five years have been the “warmest on record” there shouldn’t be any “missing heat”. What then is Trenberth looking for in the oceans?

  860. #861 Chris O'Neill
    January 1, 2016

    locus:

    If there was no pause, What then is Trenberth looking for in the oceans?

    And I’ll tell you again. Scientists like Trenberth are entitled to investigate and study statistically insignificant phenomena such as the so called “pause” that ended in 2013. Scientific curiosity does not mean someone is “willfully self-deluding” or “intellectually handicapped”, denialist misrepresentation notwithstanding.

  861. #862 Desertphile
    January 1, 2016

    locus: If there was no pause, What then is Trenberth looking for in the oceans?

    Dr. Trenberth lamented the “travesty” that about 16% of the anomalous increase in energy being added Earth’s climate system was known to be “in there somewhere” but had not been unobserved due to lack of instrumentation: he predicted, correctly, that it would be found in ocean levels below 700 meters. Less than four months later, about 8% of that “missing” ~16% was observed right where he predicted it would be. DEEPARGO is expected to observer most of the remaining “missing” energy, in the form of heat. The tiny remainder is likely to have gone in to melting more ice than originally estimated.

    At no time, “Locus,” did Dr. Trenberth think human-caused warming had “paused.”

    Funny how deniers are told these facts many hundreds of times yet they still lie about it. It’s almost as if deniers are all, without exception, learning impaired.

    Chris O’Neill“And I’ll tell you again. Scientists like Trenberth are entitled to investigate and study statistically insignificant phenomena such as the so called “pause” that ended in 2013. Scientific curiosity does not mean someone is “willfully self-deluding” or “intellectually handicapped”, denialist misrepresentation notwithstanding.”

    I deny the “pause” happened; there has been a slowing in the rate of increasing global average temperature, which has happened often over the past two centuries. I see no evidence of “pausing.”

  862. #863 Locus
    Earth
    January 1, 2016

    #861 O’Neill:

    1) You’ll notice the quotation marks in my original post. The phrases “willfully self-deluding” and “intellectually handicapped” are Bernard J’s choice of words not mine.

    2) I’m sure that Trenberth will be pleased to hear that his focus of study for the last few years is “insignificant”.

  863. #864 Desertphile
    January 1, 2016

    Locus: I’m sure that Trenberth will be pleased to hear that his focus of study for the last few years is “insignificant”.”

    Er, that’s STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT (in general, “greater than two standard deviations”) warming; the anomalous warming, Slow Person, has been and is highly significant: it has caused and is causing hundreds of billions of dollars of lost wealth world-wide, deaths, suffering, and hardship. Sheeeish. Amazing how you paranoid conspiracy alarmists have talked yourselves in to believing it’s not the major crisis all of the world’s experts say it has been and is. How do you evil shits manage to sleep at night, given your sinister behavior?

  864. #865 SteveP
    Livingroom
    January 1, 2016

    The Heartworm Institute’s friend the Locus certainly has a gift for obfuscation, doesn’t he? CosmicComics states that there is an energy imbalance, and the Locus of Obfuscation state’s that there is not, that this is merely an implication from climate models. Nevermind that NASA has clearly measured an energy imbalance and shown that the “Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum.”

    Heartwormists are like autonomous robots set in motion by the fossil fuel industry that laid their eggs,many many years ago, and now, long after even Exxon has conceded that there is a global warming problem and that carbon dioxide is the main source of imbalance, these loyal robots soldier on, unable to be recalled, wasting time and proving only that they are a serious global warming pest that needs to be addressed.

    Does anyone know a good vermifuge for denialist Heartworms?

  865. #866 Chris O'Neill
    January 1, 2016

    locus:

    Bernard J’s choice of words not mine

    You used them too, quotation notwithstanding.

    “insignificant”

    Statistically insignificant.

    Try to get the terminology right.

    There was never any statistically significant slowdown in the rate of global warming during the so called “pause”. You might try to make up claims about Trenberth’s motivations for his work but that doesn’t entitle you to make up your own facts about the global temperature record.

  866. #867 Bernard J.
    January 1, 2016

    To all the obfuscating deniers aplenty here…

    When did the pause start, and when did it stop?

    For brownie points, can you point to the “pause” on the most recent graph that I can dig up at a moment’s notice, or on BBD’s WfT graph?

    Where is the “pause”?

  867. #868 Desertphile
    January 2, 2016

    Bernard J.: To all the obfuscating deniers aplenty here…

    When did the pause start, and when did it stop?

    For brownie points, can you point to the “pause” on the most recent graph that I can dig up at a moment’s notice, or on BBD’s WfT graph?

    Where is the “pause”?

    Gosh, don’t all you denialists rush to answer…..

  868. #869 Rob Honeycutt
    January 1, 2016

    Locus…

    1) Adding CO2 to the atmosphere creates a radiative imbalance. That’s basic physics. The change in radiative forcing can be seen looking down and looking up. It’s there. It’s measured.

    2) The “hiatus” that was discussed was only in relation to the atmosphere, which accounts for about 3% of the heat in the climate system. If you want to know if there’s an actual change in global warming you have to look at the oceans.

    3) Yes, the direct forcing of CO2 is only about 1/3 of the change. Feedbacks make up the rest. But those feedbacks are known to be there. It’s not a question of if. The bigger question is, is there anything we’re missing that would produce a HIGHER rate of warming than we currently expect?

    4) Here you’re quibbling about how science is done. Yes, scientists often disagree on the nuances. Nothing about this discussion changes anything at all about the large settled questions you’re stuck on.

    5) And here you have even more quibbling over nuances that don’t matter for the big picture you can seem to grasp.

  869. #870 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 2, 2016

    #860
    “No there wasn’t a *measurable* energy imbalance.”

    Measurements clearly show that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is increasing. CO2 is a heat trapping gas. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere adds more heat.

    The Keeling Curve: latest measurement 401.76ppm.
    https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

    Unlike water vapor, CO2 is a non-condensing gas.

    “Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.”
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~sgw/ATMS321/2010_Lacis_etal.pdf

    Patrick Michaels
    “It’s hardly news that human beings have had a hand in the planetary warming that began more than 30 years ago. For nearly a century, scientists have known that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide would eventually result in warming that was most pronounced in winter, especially on winter’s coldest days, and a cooling of the stratosphere. All of these have been observed…”
    http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/live-climate-change
    http://www.desmogblog.com/patrick-michaels

    Roy Spencer
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/05/time-for-the-slayers-to-put-up-or-shut-up/

    Royer et al: CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate

    CO2…has the potential to regulate climate over a vast range of timescales, from years to millions of years. For example, the 30% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 100 years has been accompanied by significant global warming (Mann et al., 1999, 2003). Most studies incorporating all known climate forcings implicate CO2 as the primary driver for this most recent rise in global temperatures (Mann et al., 1998; Crowley, 2000; Mitchell et al., 2001). At the longer timescale of glacial-interglacial cycles…a tight correlation between CO2 and polar temperatures has long been established (Barnola et al., 1987; Petit et al., 1999). Although debated for many years, it is clear that CO2
    acted as either a climate driver or an important amplifier (Shackleton, 2000)…Taken together, CO2 appears to be an important driver of climate at all timescales.
    http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/14/3/pdf/i1052-5173-14-3-4.pdf

    Solomon et al: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
    This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf+html

    Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications
    “Abstract.
    Improving observations of ocean temperature confirm that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. This energy imbalance provides fundamental verification of the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change.
    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110415_EnergyImbalancePaper.pdf

    You deny well-established physics.

  870. #871 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 2, 2016

    #780
    “Make up your mind. If there’s “no change in the warming trend” then why is Trenberth looking for the “missing heat” in the ocean?”

    The warming trend has essentially remained the same, but for a time less heat was reflected in surface warming, and more in ocean warming. In 2014 and 2015 surface temperatures set new records. Again, your cherry picking and your inability to understand what you read is apparent. You’ve ignored this from an article you link to:

    “Durack and his colleagues at LLNL found that the Southern Hemisphere’s oceans have warmed at a higher rate over the past 35 years than previously thought. If that is true, the repercussions would be huge. It would mean that scientists have missed accounting for a portion of the heat resulting from human emissions. Scientists have calculated that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations would warm the planet by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. Durack’s results would place the planet’s sensitivity to CO2 toward the higher end of this range…
    The Durack paper suggests that the upper oceans have been warming much more rapidly over the past 35 years than previously thought.”
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mystery-of-ocean-heat-deepens-as-climate-changes/

    Instead you focus solely on the one paper that you believe fits your confirmation bias,

    “A second study, also published in Nature Climate Change, found that the deepest parts of the ocean, beyond 6,500 feet, have not warmed by very much in the past decade,” (my emphasis)

    without understanding that the other papers are not referring to depths “beyond 6,500 feet.” You don’t seem to be capable of understanding that the term “deep ocean” is imprecise and is being used to refer to different depths. You have so little knowledge of ocean warming that you don’t understand that the lower half of the oceans isn’t expected to show much warming. You cite a post in RealClimate that also describes a paper that looks into depths below 2000 meters. It links to a clear summary by scientist John Abraham in The Guardian, from which the following is taken:

    “The authors report that the deeper we go into the ocean, the less heating has occurred (this is expected and well known). Interestingly, they find that every water layer, even the deepest waters, have contributed some to sea level rise. They also report that the sea level rise contribution from the layers 300-2,000 meters is much more than previously reported.
    Dr Johnson summarised their results,
    We find a small but measurable contribution from deep-sea warming to the global sea level budget (and hence global energy budget) from 1996–2006. The ocean warming is estimated directly from highly accurate, full-depth, oceanographic temperature data. The magnitude of the deep warming contribution to sea level below 2,000 m is about 13% of the total contribution of the mass trend below 2,000 m for that same time period.
    I asked how this paper agrees or disagrees with a recent paper that reportedly showed the deepest ocean waters are not heating. He replied that the two studies actually agree with each other. They both show that the deepest ocean waters are likely contributing only a small fraction to the overall ocean energy/water rise. On the other hand, the uncertainty is largely because the deepest waters just don’t have a history of sufficient measurements to close the uncertainty range.”
    You ignore evidence whenever you find it inconvenient. You don’t understand what you read. You deny basic physics. And you think you know more than climate scientists. You’re a textbook example of Dunning-Kruger.

  871. #872 cosmicomics
    Danmark
    January 2, 2016

    #780
    Your YouTube link contains this quote from Lindzen:

    “The claim that the earth has been warming, and that there is a greenhouse effect, and that man’s activities have contributed to warming are, in fact, trivially true statements. They are not argued…”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9Sh1B-rV60&feature=player_embedded (45:35)

    Here’s another statement by Lindzen, that helps clarify yet another thing you don’t understand:

    “There has been a large increase of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases due to emissions resulting from human activity over the past 150 years […] Global average surface temperature has very probably warmed by about 0.7°C in the same period […] Increasing carbon dioxide alone, and in the absence of climate feedbacks, should cause about 1°C warming for each doubling.”
    http://www.carbonbrief.org/a-disservice-to-the-scientific-method-climate-scientists-take-on-richard-lindzen

    CO2 is a forcing. Water vapor is a feedback.

  872. #873 BBD
    January 2, 2016

    Locus

    No there wasn’t a *measurable* energy imbalance. There was an imbalance implied by the climate models. That’s why the warmists are trying to find this energy in the oceans. If they can.

    OHC 0 – 2000m layer

    Measurable energy imbalance. See also Levitus et al. 2012:

    [1] We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates are based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, and bathythermograph data corrected for instrumental biases. We have also used Argo data corrected by the Argo DAC if available and used uncorrected Argo data if no corrections were available at the time we downloaded the Argo data. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 1022 J (±2S.E.) corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C. This warming corresponds to a rate of 0.27 W m−2 per unit area of earth’s surface. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C. The World Ocean accounts for approximately 93% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The 700–2000 m ocean layer accounted for approximately one-third of the warming of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. The thermosteric component of sea level trend was 0.54 ± .05 mm yr−1 for the 0–2000 m layer and 0.41 ± .04 mm yr−1 for the 0–700 m layer of the World Ocean for 1955–2010.

    Models are not the primary source of information about climate change. That is a contrarian myth established to create a strawman argument about modelling uncertainty etc.

  873. #874 Dave
    January 2, 2016

    I’m baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack! And I am so devastated!! All you braniacs that have made a fool out of me with your vast scientific knowledge. Boy do I ever have egg on my face. Am I ever in a pickle!

    I won’t be back home until Monday when I can comment more on all of your undeniable facts. But you know me. I hang out with other deniers like the IPCC. Me, the IPCC and the Koch brothers. We’re a team. Until then, BBD, maybe you can explain to me and educate the class on how I misrepresente Trenberth.

  874. #875 dean
    United States
    January 2, 2016

    Dave, whenever you get back – try to post something substantial and (here’s a change for you) true, rather than your typical lies.

  875. #876 Christopher Winter
    January 2, 2016

    Locus (#859): Because, for the last time, only the first quote of yours is from 2009 and it didn’t even mention Mann or his hockey stick!

    Damn! You’re right. You’re exactly right.

    I hate it when that happens. (Me making a dumb mistake, I mean…)

  876. #877 BBD
    January 3, 2016

    #874 Dave

    Until then, BBD, maybe you can explain to me and educate the class on how I misrepresente Trenberth.

    Sure. See your comment at #818:

    Your semantical games aside, and as per my previous post, not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.

    That is a direct misrepresentation of Trenberth, who says the opposite, eg. Trenberth & Fasullo (2013):

    Following this, the ocean warmed at a startling rate of over 1.2 W m −2 from the 2000s for the global ocean (or 0.84 W m −2 for the global area), and the overall heating is estimated to be 0.91 W m −2 globally when melting sea ice and other components are included as well [Balmaseda et al., 2013] (Trenberth et al., submitted manuscript, 2013). More than 30% of the heat was deposited into the ocean below 700 m in an unprecedented fashion in the post 2000 record from ORAS-4 and was identified mainly with changes in the tropical and subtropical winds in the Pacific.

    Note the ‘startling rate’ of ocean warming in the first sentence.

    Now, either this is going over your head and you are confused, or you are being deliberately dishonest. I’ve already asked you to indicate if you aren’t able to follow the discussion and you have so far declined to do so. This has worrying implications for your integrity, so I urge you to speak up if you are confused.

    Before you respond, I suggest a careful re-reading of #854 as the quoted text also addresses your incorrect claims at #818 about the formal definition of the climate system and metrics for measuring an energetic imbalance within it which I first addressed at #837.

  877. #878 Dave
    January 3, 2016

    BBD #877

    Oh dear…..Oh my!! What am I going to do?I have been caught red handed misrepresenting Trenberth. I hope he doesn’t sue me. Maybe I should do the honorable thing like that Great Moral Crusader Dr. Michael Mann and retract my claim. Maybe i was being “deliberately dishonest” or maybe this is just going over my head and I’m “confused”. Do you think Trenberth will go easy on me if I just say I’m confused? I don’t know what to do. Maybe I should just quietly slip out of here since nobody knows who I am. Or maybe…wait….what?…could it be that maybe it is you that is confused? Is that even possible since you are now a Nobel Laureate just like Mann? How could that be since you have everything so well documented? You have direct quotes and links to the exact comment numbers and Trenberth bolded and Levitus and Schmidt 2014 and on and on …

    Tell you what I’m going to do. Even though you called my although bad names I;m going to give you a clue or two and 1 more day to think about before you embarrass yourself further. You’ve already seen (figure 5 from Trenberth 2014).

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WO23iEOR38o/UuQtcntVxEI/AAAAAAAAFtQ/hgupxUPsy-M/s1600/www.cgd.ucar.edu+cas+Trenberth+website-archive+trenberth.papers-moved+Energy_Imbalance_OHC_v6_ss.pdf.png

    Perhaps you would prefer figure 7

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oiFbC25JbBk/UuzJsAA9waI/AAAAAAAAAws/3ZPj3xL2-Zg/s1600/Trenberth_2014_energy_imbalance_fig7.png

    Is it starting to sink in yet? Or perhaps I’m just fabricating (Oh noes…the F word) graphs here. Maybe I’m just playing a game of poker and then I will slip out of here. Maybe I am an asshole just like that desert guy said because I didn’t supply a link to back up my claim.

    It’s not that difficult. You have all the words and images right in front of your face just like those rocket scientists that keep asking when the hiatus started and when it ended.

    I’ll be home tomorrow and should have time to ask for an apology for your defamation and hopefully go over some of the other nonsense as well.

    Cheers.

  878. #879 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    January 3, 2016

    Dave: Oh dear…..Oh my!! What am I going to do?I have been caught red handed misrepresenting Trenberth.

    Don’t apologize: just improve.

  879. #880 Chris O'Neill
    January 3, 2016

    These global warming denialists are obsessed with ancient history like the so-called “pause” that ended in 2013 or a very early version of the hockeystick from many, many moons ago. There must be a name for this condition.

  880. #881 BBD
    January 3, 2016

    Dave

    Dave

    Okay, either you don’t understand Trenberth (2014) or you are deliberately misrepresenting it.

    It boils down to this:

    After the effects of Mt. Pinatubo died away in about 1994, several estimates (Trenberth et al. 2009; Hansen et al. 2011; Lyman et al. 2010; Balmaseda et al. 2013b) support the view that the energy imbalance was order 1.0 W m−2 from 2000 through 2004. From 2005 to 2010, the quiet sun reduced the energy imbalance by 0.1–0.15 W m−2 (Fig. 2) and there was a noticeable slowing of the increase in OHC above 700-m depth, but not as much as for the full-depth OHC, that has led to reduced estimates of the overall energy imbalance to 0.3–0.8 W m−2 in the latter part of the decade.

    The latter part of the decade might reasonably be described as a blip. You are trying to imply that there is something significant going on since 2000 and that Trenberth would agree with you. It is clear that he would not, and that therefore you are misrepresenting him exactly as I showed earlier.

    Now, let’s look at the OHC data very closely again:

    OHC 0 – 700m layer shows an increase from the early 1980s to a peak in 2004, increase at a reduced rate until 2012, then a sharp rise that continues to the present.

    OHC 0 – 2000m layer shows shows an increase from the early 1980s to 2004, increase at a reduced rate until 2012, then a sharp rise that continues to the present.

    Whichever data set you look at, the claim that OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ is at best misleading and directly misrepresents what you claim ‘even Trenberth himself admits’ (again, see T&F13, specifically quoted above).

  881. #882 Bernard J.
    January 3, 2016

    I’ll be home tomorrow and should have time to ask for an apology for your defamation and hopefully go over some of the other nonsense as well.

    IANAL but I’m sure that an anonymous and unidentifiable ‘Dave’ on the internet cannot be defamed, even if the alleged defamatory comment(s) in question were indeed defamatory.

    Remind us all again – what’s your profession…?

  882. #883 BBD
    January 3, 2016

    Dave

    Is it starting to sink in yet? Or perhaps I’m just fabricating (Oh noes…the F word) graphs here.

    You clipped off the entire top panel of fig. 5 from T14 in order to create a misleading impression. That comes pretty close.

    Here is the full figure which – unsurprisingly, presents a clearer picture.

    I’ll be home tomorrow and should have time to ask for an apology for your defamation and hopefully go over some of the other nonsense as well.

    You are heading for a fall, Dave.

  883. #884 dhogaza
    January 3, 2016

    BBD:

    “You clipped off the entire top panel of fig. 5 from T14 in order to create a misleading impression. That comes pretty close.”

    I’ll be charitable and suggest that he doesn’t understand what the two graphs he linked to mean. I.E. a constant rate of warming doesn’t mean OHC is declining or stable …

  884. #885 Wow
    January 3, 2016

    “Dhog, #627, it is funny that you accuse me of lack of maturity for using literary twist on Dr. Mann’s name, yet you accuse my wife of being a mail order bride?”

    Apparently she’s not, but when did you stop beating her?

    Of course, the “mail order bride” was a joke, lighten up.

  885. #886 BBD
    January 3, 2016

    #884 dhogaza

    Yes, if I wanted to make a point about OHC I would show the panel illustrating the OHC reanalysis product, not the lower panel, which does not.

    Perhaps Dave neglected to read the caption. Here it is, Dave, if you are there:

    Fig. 5. From ORAS4, for the period after 1980 when the uncertainties are somewhat less, shown are (top) the OHC (1022 J) for the upper 700 m and full ocean for all five ensemble members as 12-month running means, the base period (zero) is 1958–65, and (bottom) the corresponding rates of change (for the globe, not global ocean; W m−2). The latter are computed as centered values and with a 12-month running mean. Also shown in the bottom panel in light orange are the 18-month regions following the main volcanic eruptions.

    Or perhaps Dave just recycled the clipped figure from some contrarian blog and never bothered to read T14 to check that he wasn’t being misled. I will ask him when he pops back in.

  886. #887 dhogaza
    January 3, 2016

    BBD:

    “Or perhaps Dave just recycled the clipped figure from some contrarian blog and never bothered to read T14 to check that he wasn’t being misled. I will ask him when he pops back in.”

    That’s my guess, combined with an inability to comprehend. I mean, “Rate” was right there on one of the graphs he linked, so either he’s not comprehending due to being lied to, not comprehending because he’s not able to understand, or lying himself. He can clear up which of the possibilities apply.

  887. #888 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    Part 1

    Dave: “The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.”

    BBD: Dave,you should read my comment.

    Dave: IPCC says there’s a hiatus

    BJ: “The simple fact is that there was never any pause.”

    BBD: You can’t look at the surface. You have to look at the whole climate system
    . “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ”

    BJ: It takes 12-20 years to statistically determine if there is a pause determine if there is a pause because I have a graph at Skeptical Science.

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ” Check out Levitus 2012.

    Dave: Your redefining what the IPCC says.

    BBD: “That would be surprising. You didn’t provide a reference. ”

    BBD: (After shown reference) “The use of the term ‘hiatus’ to describe a slowdown in the rate of surface warming is incorrect. It is unfortunate that ‘seepage’ from contrarian discourse has contaminated even the IPCC process”

    Dave: Besides “not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.”

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ” Look at Levitus 2012

    Dave: Better look at Levitus again

    BBD: “The measurements clearly show that the rate of OHC increase in the 0 – 2000m layer is accelerating. How you could interpret the data any other way is a mystery to me.

    Levitus 2012: Confirms in the conclusion the rate slows down about 2003 when Argo was deployed. The slow down is more pronounced in the upper ocean but the deeper ocean rate has declined as well

    “One feature of our results is that the previous multidecadal
    increase in OHC700 that we have reported [Levitus
    et al., 2009] (updated estimates available online at http://
    http://www.nodc.noaa.gov) leveled off during the past several
    years. This leveling is not as pronounced in our OHC2000
    estimates indicating that heat is being stored in the 700–
    2000 m layer as we have shown here.”

    Also states that the ” We have estimated an increase of 24 1022 J representing
    a volume mean warming of 0.09C of the 0–2000 m
    layer of the World Ocean.” from 1955 to 2011

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ” Look at Levitus 2012

    Dave: “not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.”

    IPCC: ” data sources are in good agreement for 1992–2003.
    In the ensuing 5 years, however, Trenberth and Fasullo (2010) note
    that the two diverge with ocean in situ measurements (Levitus et al.,
    2009), indicating a decline in OHR, in contrast to expectations from the
    observed net TOA radiation. The divergence after 2004 is referred to as
    ‘‘missing energy’’ by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b), who further argue
    that the main sink of the missing energy likely occurs at ocean depths
    below 275 m.”

    BBD: You misrepresent Trenberth (links to 2013 abstract and highlights several areas that don’t say anything about the rate of OHC except that it is “startling” using computer generated numbers (reanalysis) because of the divergence from “in situ measurements”.

    BJ : “The simple fact is that there was never any pause.” You need 1-2 decades for relevance because I have a graph at Skeptical Science.

    Francis Zwiers: We have a hiatus

    http://www.stat.washington.edu/peter/statclim/fyfeetal.pdf

    Hans Von Storch: the same

    http://www.academia.edu/4210419/Can_climate_models_explain_the_recent_stagnation_in_global_warming

    IPPCC insiders Von Storch and Zwiers: Literally wrote the book on climate statistics

    http://www.amazon.ca/Statistical-Analysis-Climate-Research-Storch/dp/0521012309

    Dave: BBD, check out figure 5 Trenberth 2014. Reanalysis data shows the rate oh OHC has declined. Just like Levitus and the IPCC. Even if you want to redefine the definition of the hiatus from the traditional methods something is still not working

    BBD: You tricked me by only showing the bottom half of figure 5 (thinks that Trenberth is so delusional he will post contradicting graphs

    Trenberth 2014:” The lower panel of Fig. 5 shows the ORAS4 rates of
    change computed for the full globe for both 0–700 m and
    the full-depth of the ocean. Here the rates are computed
    from a 12-month running mean of the centered differences”

    IPCC: ““Over the last two decades the observed rate of increase in GMST
    has been at the lower end of rates simulated by CMIP5 models
    (Figure 11.25a). This hiatus in GMST rise …

    BJ: When did the pause start?

    dave: Why don’t you read the IPCC?

    BJ: When did the pause start? “The simple fact is that there was never any pause.”

    IPCC: “The observed hiatus has important implications for near-term projections (2035)
    of GMST…”

    BBD: “Near-term warming. Not all future warming. And such an adjustment may have been premature and unnecessary” The IPCC is incorrect and suffers from “seepage” because of contrarians

    Rabbit: The pause ended in 2012

    Continued

  888. #889 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    part2

    BJ: There never was a pause. When did it start? When did it end?

    Rob Honeycutt: Mann only defamed a couple of people so his damage inflicted wasn’t as bad as Steyne. Besides, you can’t libel someone from a private conversation.

    Dave: ” not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.”

    BBD: (only 3 comments after he copied my exact statement starts to realize his mistake so resorts to fabricating a quote to something completely different from what I said

    ” the claim that OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ is at best misleading and directly misrepresents what you claim ‘even Trenberth himself admits’

    Dave “Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century”

    BBD: You claimed that OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ …

    Dave: “Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century”

    Trenberth 2014: States point blank the same thing as Levitus that the rate of increase has declined in both the upper and lower ocean (even cites Levitus in the paper) and warmers don’t to realize that every single estimate of energy imbalance is coming in lower than it did 20 years ago despite 1/3 of all human CO2 emissions. This is confirmed by the IPCC and one of the many multple lines of evidence for the hiatus that the IPCC uses (despite the order of magnitude in the uncertainties)

    “From 2005 to 2010, the quiet sun reduced the energy imbalance by 0.1–0.15 W m−2 (Fig. 2) and there was a noticeable slowing of the increase in OHC above 700-m depth, but not as much as for the full-depth OHC, that has led to reduced estimates of the overall energy imbalance to 0.3–0.8 W m−2 in the latter part of the decade.”

    BBD” In the same comment as the fabricated quote (#881) starts to realize his claim

    “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly” is garbage and starts the walkback. Acknowledges the decline in the rate OHC in the Argo era up to 2012 and recomputes his figures. Then uses current El Nino to advance argument and doesn’t realize that this is irrelevant since Trenberth’s “data” ends in 2010 and IPCC claimed there was a hiatus before this point which is the point I said

    Dave “not only the IPCC but even Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century.”

    By defintion we’re talking 2010 for Trenberth and 2012 for the IPCC that uses OHC as part of there overall assessment that there is a hiatus.

  889. #890 Chris O'Neill
    January 4, 2016

    2010 for Trenberth and 2012 for the IPCC

    An incredible obsession with ancient history. What a waste of a life.

  890. #891 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    part3

    BJ: There never was a hiatus. When did it start? “[* The mention of a hiatus in AR5 is not a straightforward statement that the warming due to human carbon emissions stopped or “paused”, as you seem to imagine. …If one digs into the nuts and bolts of the science reviewed, though, one will see that no one with professional competence thinks that the planet stopped accumulating heat.” (doesn’t even seem to understand the argument)

    IPCC:

    Due to the long time scales in the deep ocean, full equilibrium is reached only after hundreds to thousands of years (Hansen et al., 1985; Gregory et al., 2004; Stouffer, 2004; Meehl et al., 2007b

    Desertphile: The IPCC only has 3 lines about the hiatus

    Trenberth 2014: “From 2005 to 2010, the quiet sun reduced the energy imbalance by 0.1–0.15 W m−2 (Fig. 2) and there was a noticeable slowing of the increase in OHC above 700-m depth, but not as much as for the full-depth OHC, that has led to reduced estimates of the overall energy imbalance to 0.3–0.8 W m−2 in the latter part of the decade.”

    Dave: “Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century”

    BBD: you claimed that ” OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ is at best misleading and directly misrepresents what you claim ‘even Trenberth himself admits’…fabricates quote to completely change the meaning

    Trenberth 2014 Figure 11

    https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/figure-7.png

    “FIG. 11. The 12-month running-mean tendency from ORAS4 full-depth ocean OHC tendencies
    are given in purple for all five ensemble members along with updated estimates from
    the WOA (Levitus et al. 2012) and Argo as analyzed by Roemmich and Gilson (2009, 2011) and
    von Schuckmann and Le Traon (2011).”

    (Trenberth’s reanalysis data peaks in 2001 and goes down until it ends in 2009″

    Dave: “Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century”

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ”

    IPCC:

    “Below 700 m data coverage is too sparse to produce annual global ocean heat content estimates prior to about 2005”

    BJ: “Have you actually read the report with care?”

    IPCC: “. Wong et al. (2006) showed that interannual variations
    in these two data sources are in good agreement for 1992–2003.
    In the ensuing 5 years, however, Trenberth and Fasullo (2010) note
    that the two diverge with ocean in situ measurements (Levitus et al.,
    2009), indicating a decline in OHR, in contrast to expectations from the
    observed net TOA radiation. The divergence after 2004 is referred to as
    ‘‘missing energy’’ by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b), who further argue
    that the main sink of the missing energy likely occurs at ocean depths
    below 275 m.”

  891. #892 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    part4

    Trenberth 2014: reanalysis data confirms we still have missing energy (amazing that anyone would think it was magically found between Trenberth 2012b and Trenberth 2013)

    IPCC: “Following Chapter 3, ocean reanalyses are not used for model evaluation as many of their properties depend on the model used to build the reanalysis. ”

    BJ: “Have you actually read the report with care?” I think dave is getting info from blogs. He’s a denier.

    BBD: you claimed that ” OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ is at best misleading and directly misrepresents what you claim ‘even Trenberth himself admits’…fabricates quote to completely change the meaning

    James Hansen:

    ” sea level rise slowed slightly in the past few years. The reason seems to be that ocean heat storage decreased in the past five years reducing thermal expansion. Reduced heat storage may be related in part to solar minimum radiation.”

    http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ”

    IPCC: “Studies based on reanalyses are used cautiously in AR5 and known inadequacies are pointed out and referenced”

    IPCC: “Satellite records of top of the atmosphere radiation fluxes have been substantially extended since AR4, and it is unlikely that significant trends exist in global and tropical radiation budgets
    since 2000. Interannual variability in the Earth’s energy imbalance related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is consistent with ocean heat content records within observational uncertainty. ” (indeed they actually report a lower number than 20 years ago although there is so much uncertainty the nunmbers are essentially meaningless)

    Trenberth 2014:: Figure 7

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oiFbC25JbBk/UuzJsAA9waI/AAAAAAAAAws/3ZPj3xL2-Zg/s1600/Trenberth_2014_energy_imbalance_fig7.png

    What do you know? The rate declines just like the other figures.

    IPCC: “Global mean lower stratospheric temperatures have decreased since the mid-20th century punctuated by short-lived warming events associated with explosive volcanic activity (Figure 2.24a). However, since the mid-1990s little net change has occurred”

    (another one of the many lines of evidence the IPCC uses to confirm the hiatus and whl they lowered future projection)

    BJ: When did the Hiatus start? There never was a pause. I have a graph I made at SS. Who cares what the IPCC says.

    IPCC: “Below 700 m data coverage is too sparse to produce annual global ocean heat content estimates prior to about 2005″

    40 NASA scientists including James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt 2014:

    ” However, the ensemble continues
    to warm at a steady rate without the slowdown observed during the last decade. The warming discrepancy
    is larger than unforced differences among the individual ensemble members, pointing to possible
    errors related to forcing or some aspect of the model that we have yet to identify. The E2-R NINT ensemble
    matches the observed upward trend of heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean. (We are investigating
    whether this agreement remains after correcting an error in the subgrid mixing parameterization.)”

    http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2014/2014_Miller_etal_1.pdf

  892. #893 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    part 5

    BJ: there never was a pause . Have you read the IPCC report with care?

    Gavin Scmidt 2015: “Sensitivity to factors underlying the hiatus.”

    http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ma03110j.html

    BBD: fabricates quote to change what I said

    Nature: Scripps finds ocean temps decelerated in 2nd half of 20th century

    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1461.html

    IPCC: “Model predictions show an increase in tropospheric water
    vapour content in association with increasing atmospheric
    temperature This is of considerable importance since it is
    responsible for one of the main feedback mechanisms that
    amplifies the enhanced greenhouse effect”

    IPCC: :AR4 reported that stratospheric H2O vapour showed significant long-term variability and an upward trend over the last half of the 20th century, but no net increase since 1996. This updated assessment finds large interannual variations that have been observed by independent measurement techniques, but no significant net changes since 1996. ”
    (more confirmation of a hiatus)

    IPCC: “In summary, most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 1979–2012. Roughly one-half to two-thirds of this difference from the observed trend is due to an overestimate of the SST trend, which is propagated upward because models attempt to maintain static stability.”

    “Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found in observational data sets (e.g., McKitrick et al., 2010; Santer et al., 2013) ”

    IPCC: “Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations (114 out of 117) do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus (surface)

    IPCC” The primary response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to be a global mean warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere.”

    BJ Have you ever read the report with care?

    BBD fabricates quote

    BJ I think dave has been given wrong info from blogs

    IPCC: ” The primary response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to be a global mean warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere.”

    IPCC: “The primary response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to be a global mean warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere.:

    IPCC: “”Below 700 m data coverage is too sparse to produce annual global ocean heat content estimates prior to about 2005”

    BJ When did the pause start?

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly”

    Trenberth 2014: “”From 2005 to 2010, the quiet sun reduced the energy imbalance by 0.1–0.15 W m−2 (Fig. 2) and there was a noticeable slowing of the increase in OHC above 700-m depth, but not as much as for the full-depth OHC, that has led to reduced estimates of the overall energy imbalance to 0.3–0.8 W m−2 in the latter part of the decade.” (shows several different graphs to confirm)

    Dave “”Trenberth himself admits that the rate of OHC has declined in the 21st century”

    BBD: “Whichever data set you look at, the claim that OHC has ‘declined in the C21st’ is at best misleading and directly misrepresents what you claim ‘even Trenberth himself admits’

    (fabricates quote to change meaning-comment 881)

    Dave: “The hiatus deniers are quite amusing. Apparently they are not capable of reading the IPCC report.”

    BJ: Have you ever read the report with care

    BBD: You misrepresented Trenberth. Then has to fabricate quote to make a point.

  893. #894 Dave
    January 4, 2016

    Happy New Year everybody! Enjoy the interglacial. I’ll leave you to your delusions.

  894. #895 BBD
    January 4, 2016

    Dave

    The classic tactic of the unmasked bluffer is to bury the thread in a vast outpouring of diversionary nonsense.

    I’m puzzled by what you did here. Did *you* clip the top panel off T14 fig. 5? If it was you, can you please explain *why* you did it (read the fig. 5 caption again – I posted it at #886).

    If you *didn’t* clip the top panel, then please say where you got this misleadingly edited figure from. That would get you off the hook for deliberate misrepresentation and I’m curious to know where you are obtaining what is apparently misinformation.

    And Dave, repeatedly claiming – falsely on every single occasion – that I fabricated quotes to change your original meaning is shamelessly dishonest.

    But of course I understand your desperate need to divert attention from the fact that you have been shown up for a bluffer and a clown.

    Fortunately, facts are immune to contrarian lies and bullshit, and OHC 0 – 2000m layer is still shooting up and the misnomered ‘pause’ is over.

  895. #896 BBD
    January 4, 2016

    BBD: “OHC in the 0 – 2000m layer is increasing – rapidly. ” Check out Levitus 2012.

    NODC OHC is a continuation of L12.

    Re-read #881.

    Or just look at the data: OHC 0 – 2000m layer.

    This clearly shows an increase from the early 1980s to 2004, increase at a slightly reduced rate until 2012, then a sharp rise that continues to the present.

  896. #897 BBD
    January 4, 2016

    And while focusing on Hansen agreeing with Trenberth that the quiet SC24 may have temporarily reduced the rate of increase of OHC and so of SLR, you missed the key figure.

  897. #898 Rob Honeycutt
    January 5, 2016

    Dave…

    IF there were a pause, you’d have to actually put forth a cause for it. The climate system doesn’t just warm or cool for no reason. It has to have an inherent forcing.

    IF you’re claiming there is a pause due to internal variability, that’s plausible and would be fully consistent with forcing from rising man-made CO2 concentrations. After all, the atmosphere only holds 3% of the heat in the climate system, so it’s rational to believe that heat is temporarily being moved into the oceans or melting ice.

    What you CAN’T have is surface temperature changing for no reason. That’s not science.

  898. #899 Desertphile
    January 12, 2016

    Rob Honeycutt: Dave… IF there were a pause, you’d have to actually put forth a cause for it. The climate system doesn’t just warm or cool for no reason. It has to have an inherent forcing.”

    Anything that would make human-caused warming suddenly stop would be catastrophic. Nuclear weapon holocaust for example; meteor strike for another example; extensive and anomalous volcanism for another. If human-caused warming has stopped, much of life on Earth would be royally screwed.

  899. #900 ohandy1
    January 6, 2016

    Cause for the pause: The Sun.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.41008

    But don’t worry, according to the Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences AGW will return.

  900. #901 RickA
    United States
    January 6, 2016

    Rob #898:

    I don’t agree with you.

    Sometimes it is enough to simply make an observation and report it.

    Then the theorists can come up with hypothesis to explain the observation and others can double check the observation.

    There have been dozens of papers trying to explain the pause, because that is how science works.

    Make an observation and then try to figure out how to fit that observation in with our body of knowledge about how the world works.

    If the observation is not explained by existing theory, some people can try to propose a new theory or hypothesis to explain the observation.

    ohandy1 cites a paper saying the pause is caused by the sun. And that is ok and how science works.

    Other people will have other explanations for the pause.

    Some people may find the pause is caused by two or more factors.

    Some people will try to show that there is no pause.

    Some other people will come along and summarize all the earlier hypothesis and try to integrate them all.

    That is how science works.

    Climate science could stand to obtain more measurements.

    I would love to see 60 years of measurements from the bottom of the ocean to the top of the atmosphere, over the entire earth of all relevant climate variables.

    That would be useful.

    But all of the discussion about science has very little to do with the Mann vs. Steyn legal battle.

    The case will not be about the science.

    It will be about opinion or the reasonableness of a statement of fact or whether a statement of fact is false.

  901. #902 dean
    United States
    January 6, 2016

    RickA, there was no fucking pause. Trying to explain it is like trying to explain why unicorns have three tails.

  902. #903 Desertphile
    January 7, 2016

    dean: RickA, there was no fucking pause. Trying to explain it is like trying to explain why unicorns have three tails.

    So…. why bother? Denialists are brainwashed: there’s a shit load of professional literature that shows why it is a waste of time.

  903. #904 Brainstorms
    January 6, 2016

    OMG, I though they only had two !

    RickA’s argumentation: Wait until you’ve been speared through the gut to try to count tails. Then you’ll know, and hey, you won’t have risked wasting money protecting yourself and could instead go spend it on drunken revelry. After all, if you’re not injured now, you’ll never be injured (because you can spend endless days arguing about its uncertainties until it no longer exists), so don’t purchase insurance!

  904. #905 Chris O'Neill
    January 6, 2016

    Global warming denialist algorithm:

    1. Global temperature has increased because of heat coming out of the ocean. Therefore it’s not our fault.

    2. Global warming has “paused” because surface temperature rise has slowed down. Therefore it’s not a problem.

    3. Go to 1. Brainwash, rinse and repeat.

  905. #906 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 8, 2016

    Btw, here is Mann, admitting (albeit probably unconsciously) that MBH 98 was fraudulent… this link explains it far better then I ever could, but it seems perfectly logical to me. After MBH 98 was published, Mann states in his book there were issues with re-verification, yet went on to publish MBH 99 as if the prior problems didn’t exist.

    https://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/09/11/michael-mann-committed-fraud/

    It is certainly reasonable, my friends, to call that fraudulent (i.e., dishonest)

    Re: Steyn, a well-known academic entitled a blog post “Mann’s Hockey Stick A Fraud”

    As time passes, the worse it gets for Mann because it is clear more and more climate experts (even those who promote AGW) think Mann is fraud, not to mention a jerk

  906. #907 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 8, 2016

    RickA, I admire your diligence, but you cannot reason with this people. I have spent months trying to get people such as BBD, Rob Honeycutt, Desertphile, etc., to simply acknowledge some people, including some climate scientists, think Dr. Mann is a fraud.

    Notice, I never asked them to accept that Dr. Mann is a fraud, just that some people think so. They won’t even admit that, despite loads and loads of articles (including some by climate scientists at well-respected universities such as Georgia Tech) say as much.

    You are absolutely right. This case comes down to reasonableness of opinion, which is why the can’t admit the obvious. For God’s same, BBD “demanded” that I produce evidence that a climate scientist called Mann a fraud. I responded by linking to an article by a Georgia Tech Professor titled “Mann’s Fraudulent Hockey Stick. Ironically, in the article, the professor states Mann’s conduct doesn’t rise to academic fraud, but was indeed dishonest (which is what fraudulent means. Fraud doesn’t have to mean academic fraud, or professional fraud, although it certainly can. calling someone a fraud simply means they are dishonest)

  907. #908 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 8, 2016

    Umm, Desertphile, #771, enacting “cap and trade” or “cap and tax” is “bloody the anal fuck” (to use your phrase) detrimental to the economy. It will impose additional regulatory costs on businesses, which will force companies to take funds that could be used for R&D, infrastructure repair and/or investment, employee training, hiring, or just plain old lowering the cost of the product, which in turn benefits consumers, which in turn benefits the economy because people will have more money to spend or save or pay down debt, etc.

    You really don’t think excessive regulation is good for the economy, do you? Btw, you seem to have a strange fixation with gay people and the private lives…

  908. #909 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 8, 2016

    A few simple questions:
    1) Did MBH 98 state “the long term trend in NH is relative robust to the inclusion of dendroclimatic indicators in the network, suggesting that potential tree growth trend biases are not influential in the multi-proxy climate reconstructions?

    2) At pg. 51 of his book published after MBH 98, does Mann state that reverification tests “revealed that not all of the records were playing an equal role in our reconstructions – in particular, on set of tree ring records spanning the boreal tree line of North America

    3) If Mann did make these statements, did he have an obligation to mention same in MBH 99?

    4) Was it proper for MBH99, when reconstructing the hockey stick back another 400 years or so, to refer to MBH 98 verification without mentioning that “not all records played an equal role,” after first suggesting they did

    5) If all the above is true, isn’t fair for some scientists, commentators, etc, to conclude that Mann was dishonest, i.e., fraudulent?

  909. #910 Chris O'Neill
    January 8, 2016

    DanH:

    MBH 98

    MBH 98

    MBH 99

    MBH 99

    What a truly monumental obsession with making a claim about some ancient climate science history, superseded many years ago.

    What a sad waste of a life.

  910. #911 Bernard J.
    January 8, 2016

    I have spent months trying to get people such as BBD, Rob Honeycutt, Desertphile, etc., to simply acknowledge some people, including some climate scientists, think Dr. Mann is a fraud.

    Notice, I never asked them to accept that Dr. Mann is a fraud, just that some people think so.

    I think that Dan has just made Mann’s case for him.

    Dan acknowledges that people have the impression that mann is a fraud. Steyn has demonstrably promoted that mem when he can also be demonstrated to have been told that Mann is not a “fraud”. By Dan’s own words people have been given an impression of Mann’s alleged fraudulence, so Steyne’s potential contribution to this should (and will be) tested in court.

    If a link can be made between Steyne’s slandering of Mann and some people’s apprehension of Mann as a fraud (as confirmed by Dan), I’d say that it would be game over for Steyne.

  911. #912 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    Bernard J: Actually, you just acknowledged your fundamental misunderstanding of the legal issues involved. The jury (or judge via dispositive motion) will decide if Steyn’s honestly believed Mann is a fraud. Thus, if Steyn can prove Mann’s hockey stick is fraudulent, Mann’s lawsuit fails per se because it always reasonable to believe the truth.

    However, even if Steyn can’t prove Mann’s hockey stick was fraudulent, Steyn can still win if he shows he reasonably believed it. That is why his recently published book, disgrace to the profession, is so important (and, candidly, a brilliant legal play). By publishing a collection of works by hundreds of scientists who think Mann’s work is dishonest, including scientists who agree with Mann re: AGW, Steyn has the relatively easy case to make of “if all these scientists think Mann is dishonest, it is reasonable for me to think so.”

    Also, your post misses puts the cart before the horse. Do you honestly think all these scientists who claim Mann is dishonest did so based on what a theater critic and political commentator says? Or, is it more likely, that the theater critic/political commentator relies on the scientists?

    Again, look at Prof. Garber’s article linked above: You can say anything you want about a public figure if you are dumb enough to believe it…

  912. #913 Chris O'Neill
    January 11, 2016

    By publishing a collection of works by hundreds of scientists who

    are acting like clowns by commenting outside their areas of expertise where they are nothing more than arrogant laymen.

    “if all these scientists think Mann is dishonest, it is reasonable for me to think so.”

    Not if those scientists are commenting outside their area of expertise (and thus are nothing more than laymen as far as Mann’s work is concerned).

  913. #914 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    I agree, Chris, Mann is a sad waste of life filing a defamation lawsuit over his hockey stick from nearly 20 years ago which has long since been discredited, at the very least because Mann cherry picked evidence, by his own admission.

    I can promise you there are many places Steyn would rather be then defending Mann’s baseless lawsuit…

  914. #915 dean
    January 11, 2016

    ago which has long since been discredited

    You keep repeating that lie after it has been shown to be such repeatedly. That really demonstrates a complete lack of integrity on your part.

  915. #916 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    Dan

    I told you some time upthread that Curry has no relevant domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions. Nor does a single one of the scientists you falsely claim accuse Mann of fraud.

    So, you have no list of scientist with relevant expertise claiming that Mann’s work is fraudulent, yet here you are, still strutting about as if you had made a point.

    If you don’t understand any of this well enough to grasp that Steyn cannot plausibly claim that scientists with the necessary relevant expertise have denounced Mann’s work as fraudulent, then you are indeed a clown.

  916. #917 RickA
    United States
    January 11, 2016

    BBD:

    Steyn’s reasonableness will not be measured against the scientists with what you consider to be the necessary relevant expertise.

    I am not even sure the book or the quotes will come into evidence (unless the quotes are from before the date of the claimed defamation – the opinion piece Steyn wrote – I am not sure they are relevant).

    To my way of thinking – something like the North report would be enough by itself. That report said Mann’s principal components technique was “not recommended”. Many climate audit posts could also be cited.

    It doesn’t matter if you or other climate scientists think Mann has been vindicated. The only question is was Steyn honest in his belief that Mann’s hockey stick graph was fraudulent (deceitful).

    No one can read Steyn’s mind – but it sure seems reasonable that he did believe this graph was deceitful.

    There are many many issues which Steyn will be able to explore in his deposition of Dr. Mann which will give ammo to his claim of reasonableness – that is why I cannot wait for the deposition of Dr. Mann.

    I am sure many of the other opinion are waiting with bated breath for Dr. Mann’s deposition of Mr. Steyn – hoping Dr. Mann will discover that Steyn has never believed that the hockey stick graph was fraudulent.

    Lets pop some popcorn because surely the DC court of appeals will be done in 2016 (or 2017 or 2018) . . .

  917. #918 Brainstorms
    January 11, 2016

    Only a liar or a moron would equate “not recommended” with “fraudulent”. “Not recommended” is an obvious statement of opinion; “Fraudulent” is a provable statement of fact.

    Your repeated attempts to conflate the two only inspire belief in your claims to be a lawyer. A dishonest one (if such could be taken to not be a redundant figure of speech).

    It doesn’t matter if you or other lawyers think Mann is guilty. The only question is, “Did Steyn use a statement of fact that is not a fact and was issued with malice — a reckless disregard for the truthfulness of his statement of ‘fraud’.”

    No one needs to read Steyn’s mind. Not that Steyn doesn’t go out of his way to make that absurdly easy (for a jury)…

  918. #919 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    BBD: You aren’t the arbiter of whether or not Dr. Curry has sufficient qualifications. I promise you she would be admitted as a climate expert in any court in this country.

  919. #920 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    Dean, it is a matter of opinion whether or not Mann’s work has been discredited. Enough scientists think so to fill a book up of quotes.

    BBD: I am strutting anything, just stating the facts. Btw, no one responded to my questions in #908. Why? Because it is a fact Mann made those statements. And, therefore, it is reasonable for some (if not most) people to think Mann was dishonest by not only revealing not all data was relied on heavily when constructing the hockey stick, but then deceptively using the same information (which, by his own admission, some info was given more weight) to extend the hockey stick back hundreds of more years.

    Look, you may think it is fine to initially say the results were obtained by wide-spread data, each given equal weight, then to later admit that favorable data was given more weight. You may think it was okay for Mann to extend the hockey stick with results based on cherry-picked data.

    But people can disagree….

    And, btw, I given you evidence of Mann’s deception in his own words

  920. #921 Dan
    January 11, 2016

    Brainstorms: Yes, the jury will need to read Steyn’s mind because “Malice” in the legal sense necessarily requires same. Mann has to show Steyn knew his statements were false. Given Mann’s acknowledgement of giving more weight to some data, it is certainly a reasonable belief. Mann’s only hope is to show Steyn did not actually possess that belief

    Good luck with that…

  921. #922 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    #917

    BBD: You aren’t the arbiter of whether or not Dr. Curry has sufficient qualifications. I promise you she would be admitted as a climate expert in any court in this country.

    You can be the arbiter. Go and find me a single piece of evidence showing that JC has any domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions.

    Then post the link here.

    Fail to do so, and you automatically concede the point.

    * * *

    BBD: I am strutting anything, just stating the facts.

    The *facts* are exactly as I have already stated them, several times:

    There are *no* climate scientists with the relevant expertise to *know what they are talking about* who have said that Mann’s work is fraudulent.

    Those. Are. The. Facts.

    You are lying or too stupid to understand that you are not stating the facts at all.

  922. #923 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    #915 RickA

    You never, ever mention reckless disregard for the truth.

    Why is that?

  923. #924 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    #908 Dan

    If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

  924. #925 RickA
    United States
    January 11, 2016

    Because “reckless disregard for the truth” goes to the issue of actual malice, which is a different legal issue than whether or not the statement (if it is found to be a statement of fact and not an opinion) is false or not.

    At least that is how this patent attorney (not a defamation lawyer) analyzes it.

  925. #926 RickA
    January 11, 2016

    Oops – #923 was in response to BBD’s question in #921.

  926. #927 RickA
    January 11, 2016

    Let us review defamation again – it may be we all need a refresher.

    Mann has to prove that Steyn’s statement is a statement of fact and not an opinion.

    Mann has to prove that Steyn’s statement is false.

    Mann has to prove that the statement was made with actual malice.

    In the DC Federal District court – the Defendant (Steyn here) has the opinion and fair comment privledge:

    http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/opinion-and-fair-comment-privileges

    AND the substantial truth defense:

    http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/substantial-truth

    You should read both of these webpages, which detail some of the nuances of DC defamation law.

    All Steyn has to show is that the “gist” or “sting” of his statement is correct to show substantial truth.

    If he can show that Mann “spun” his graph for use as propoganda, that could make it fraudulent.

    If he can show that Mann used motivated selection of data to pick the best case hockey stick, that could make it fraudulent.

    And so on.

    This case is just a lot harder for Mann than most of the posters here think.

    This is not a case where the jury is going to decide if a certain percentage of climate scientists (real ones as described here with all the “proper” qualifications) agree with Mann’s result that Steyn’s statement is false. That is just not how it works.

    Especially as Dan points out – because Mann is a public figure.

  927. #928 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    All Steyn has to show is that the “gist” or “sting” of his statement is correct to show substantial truth.

    That would be difficult as there is plenty of evidence to show that MBH98 / 99 were not fraudulent. That the reconstructions presented were in fact reasonably accurate.

    If he can show that Mann “spun” his graph for use as propoganda, that could make it fraudulent.

    I very much doubt that anyone could demonstrate that *Mann* ‘spun’ the essentially correct results of these two studies in any way that could be described as fraudulent.

    My understanding remains that Mann could win if he demonstrates that Steyn acted with reckless disregard for the truth. Is this correct, or not?

  928. #929 RickA
    January 11, 2016

    Here are Steyn’s opportunities to win:

    Steyn wins if Mann cannot prove his statement is a statement of fact (if it goes to the jury).

    Steyn wins if he convinces the Judge that his statement is an opinion (on summary judgment).

    Steyn wins if Mann cannot convince the jury Steyn’s statement is false.

    Steyn wins if he can show the Judge the statement is substantially true (on summary judgment).

    Steyn wins at trial if Mann cannot prove actual malice.

    Then there are other issues – for example which hockey stick graph was Steyn referring to as fraudulent? All of them or only one – and if only one – which one.

    The WMO cover, which had no caption, MBH 1998, MBH 1999 or the one on the IPCC report cover?

    Do you see how complicated this will get and how many ways Steyn can win?

    Just one patent attorney’s opinion.

    I wish the appeal would get over and discover would recommence (assuming the case is not thrown out on appeal because of the SLAPP law).

  929. #930 RickA
    January 11, 2016

    BBD #926:

    I don’t think that is correct. That goes to the issue of actual malice. Steyn could win on the first two issues and actual malice will not matter.

    For example, the Judge could find Steyn’s statement was opinion on summary judgment and Steyn would win at that point – without any finding of whether his statement was made with actual malice or not.

    Or the Judge could find Steyn’s statement was substantial truth on summary judgment (if found not to be opinion) and Steyn would win – without any finding of whether his statement was made with actual malice or not.

    So Mann has to show all three elements of his burden of proof: the statement is a statement of fact (and not opinion), the statement is false and made with actual malice.

    The reckless disregard for the truth comes into place on the actual malice portion of Mann’s burden of proof.

  930. #931 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    BBD: Saying I need to unequivocally answer a question is rich coming from you, who refuses to answer the simple questions I posed in #908.

    But, to answer your question, giving more weight to certain data is dishonest. You keep missing the point. The issue is not whether MBH 98 was, in reality, fraudulent. The is issue is if Steyn actually thought it was fraudulent.

    Mann admitting he gave more weight to certain data certainly gives credence to Steyn’s statements that he believes the hockey stick graph is a fraud.

    Steyn is under no obligation to prove the hockey stick actually is fraudulent (although that is but one of many ways he can win).

    Dude, give it up. Mann filed a shitty, baseless lawsuit. You have yet to provide one article from any legal expert saying Mann has a good case. And the fact that his lawyers took means nothing, as Mann is paying them hundreds of dollar an hour.

    This case is about Free Speech….

  931. #932 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 11, 2016

    BBD: Have you read Steyn’s latest book, “A Disgrace to the Profession.” If not, you are in no position to comment on whether there are no climate scientists who claim Mann’s work is fraudulent.

    If you have, repudiate all 120 of the scientists quoted in the book.

    See, this is the game you play. You ask for climate scientists who claim Mann is a fraud. I list plenty. then you say, no, not climate scientist, but climate scientists in with experience in millennial climate reconstruction.

    Also, how do you know Dr. Curry has enough experience or not? Have you reviewed every single paper she was written? Lecture she has given? She sure seemed to be well-versed in climate trends when testifying before congress.

    Again, any scientist I provide you will find some nit-picking way to disagree with (like when you said calling Mann dishonest is not the same as calling him fraudulent).

    Dude, you sound like a 5 year old whining when you don’t get your way…..

  932. #933 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    Dan

    Try again:

    If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

  933. #934 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    #928 RickA

    So Mann has to show all three elements of his burden of proof: the statement is a statement of fact (and not opinion), the statement is false and made with actual malice.

    The reckless disregard for the truth comes into place on the actual malice portion of Mann’s burden of proof.

    Ah, I see. Thanks for clarifying that.

  934. #935 dean
    January 11, 2016

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

    Good luck with that BBD. dan has apparently become an expert and knows in his heart the hockey stick is wrong. Next he’ll say the “confirmations” are evidence of collusion among the scientists.

  935. #936 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    Come on Dan, I’m getting bored waiting…

    Go and find me a single piece of evidence showing that JC has any domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions.

    Then post the link here.

    Fail to do so, and you automatically concede the point.

  936. #937 BBD
    January 11, 2016

    #933 dean

    I think Dan needs to get his ducks in a row pretty sharpish, or he is going to be made to look like a liar and a fool.

  937. #938 Chris O'Neill
    January 11, 2016

    Have you read Steyn’s latest book

    I read some of the quotes from the climate science nobodies. e.g. Madhav Khandekar: ‘The Heartland Institute describes him as “an environmental consultant on extreme weather events and a scientist with the Natural Resources Stewardship Project.” According to internal budget and strategy documents from the Heartland Institute, Khandekar has recieved $1,000 per month to write a chapter for a report that attacks climate science by the Nongovernmental Internatinal Panel on Climate Change.’

    With clowns like Madhav Khandekar on board, how can Steyn go wrong!

  938. #939 Chris O'Neill
    January 11, 2016

    Dude, you sound like a 5 year old whining when you don’t get your way…..

    The irony.

  939. #940 Chris O'Neill
    January 11, 2016

    you will find some nit-picking way to disagree

    But then, nitpicking is what the obsession with the original ancient hockey stick is all about.

  940. #941 Bernard J.
    January 11, 2016

    Dan, your continued inept demonstration of what constitutes appropriate science and appropriate scientific expertise, and your persistent enthusiasm for twisting facts to suit your own agenda, makes it patently clear what sort of lawyer you are. If I ever required legal council, whether as a plaintiff or a defendant, you would be the last person I would engage.

    BBD: You aren’t the arbiter of whether or not Dr. Curry has sufficient qualifications. I promise you she would be admitted as a climate expert in any court in this country.

    And I promise you that in an objective world she would be an entirely inappropriate person to engage as an expert witness on the subject of human-caused climate change and related disciplines of climatology, as this is not where her experience is based – as others have already told you. Indeed, even when Curry does publish in her domains of focus, she is only the first author in around 10% of those publications, which puts her more in the league of an assistant investigator/research assistant than an influential lead investigator, and certainly not a lead choice for any objectively serious consideration for expert advice.

    Presenting Curry as an expert witness in matters of human-caused climate change would in my own humble opinon (based on decades of experience working as a scientist…) be like getting the guy who does your electron micrograph specimens to speak on the surgical difficulties of an excision of an astrocytoma. Of course for some lawyers this is not an obstacle – all they need to do is to employ a bit of logical fallacy to pull the wool over the jury’s eyes and throw a bit of mud at the opposing councel so that their protests at any inappropriateness are blunted…

    Also, how do you know Dr. Curry has enough experience or not? Have you reviewed every single paper she was written?

    In fact I have. And see the link above.

    Curry’s work is mostly very far from the physics of human-caused climate change, and her closest papers are either still tangential to ‘greenhouse’ gas physics or are more like opinion pieces than actual expert research. And they are small in number. And very small in number when first-authorship is considered – a number whose subset doesn’t exclude zero, if real scientific relevance is a prime consideration…

    Mann is a sad waste of life filing a defamation lawsuit over his hockey stick from nearly 20 years ago which has long since been discredited, at the very least because Mann cherry picked evidence, by his own admission.

    Dan, how about you put your full name to claims such as this? That way we can see how much you are prepared to stand by your defamatory comments, and as a bonus from your perspective it would potentially open us to accusations of defaming you

  941. #942 Bernard J.
    January 11, 2016

    [Tag hash…]

    Dan, your continued inept demonstration of what constitutes appropriate science and appropriate scientific expertise, and your persistent enthusiasm for twisting facts to suit your own agenda, makes it patently clear what sort of lawyer you are. If I ever required legal council, whether as a plaintiff or a defendant, you would be the last person I would engage.

    BBD: You aren’t the arbiter of whether or not Dr. Curry has sufficient qualifications. I promise you she would be admitted as a climate expert in any court in this country.

    And I promise you that in an objective world she would be an entirely inappropriate person to engage as an expert witness on the subject of human-caused climate change and related disciplines of climatology, as this is not where her experience is based – as others have already told you. Indeed, even when Curry does publish in her domains of focus, she is only the first author in around 10% of those publications, which puts her more in the league of an assistant investigator/research assistant than an influential lead investigator, and certainly not a lead choice for any objectively serious consideration for expert advice.

    Presenting Curry as an expert witness in matters of human-caused climate change would in my own humble opinon (based on decades of experience working as a scientist…) be like getting the guy who does your electron micrograph specimens to speak on the surgical difficulties of an excision of an astrocytoma. Of course for some lawyers this is not an obstacle – all they need to do is to employ a bit of logical fallacy to pull the wool over the jury’s eyes and throw a bit of mud at the opposing councel so that their protests at any inappropriateness are blunted…

    Also, how do you know Dr. Curry has enough experience or not? Have you reviewed every single paper she was written?

    In fact I have. And see the link above.

    Curry’s work is mostly very far from the physics of human-caused climate change, and her closest papers are either still tangential to ‘greenhouse’ gas physics or are more like opinion pieces than actual expert research. And they are small in number. And very small in number when first-authorship is considered – a number whose subset doesn’t exclude zero, if real scientific relevance is a prime consideration…

    Mann is a sad waste of life filing a defamation lawsuit over his hockey stick from nearly 20 years ago which has long since been discredited, at the very least because Mann cherry picked evidence, by his own admission.

    Dan, how about you put your full name to claims such as this? That way we can see how much you are prepared to stand by your defamatory comments, and as a bonus from your perspective it would potentially open us to accusations of defaming you

  942. #943 Chris O'Neill
    January 11, 2016

    waste of life filing a defamation lawsuit over his hockey stick from nearly 20 years ago

    You really have serious comprehension issues don’t you Dan? The defamation lawsuit is is over an act of alleged defamation that occurred much more recently than 20 years ago. Another hint: the life being wasted is a lot closer to your home than Mann’s.

  943. #944 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 11, 2016

    Re: # 941

    To Dan’s credit, he has identified himself in the previous thread on Steyn. Assuming it’s the same Dan:

    Look, if it will shut you girls up, I will be happy to identify myself. My Nevada Bar No. is 9591; you can go to http://www.nvbar.org and go from there.

    The party line has been, and still is in some quarters, that anybody can refute the science with “common sense.” More recently the party line has been more pstmodernist: “I’m not a scientist [but any opinion I happen to pull out of my opinion hole is as good as anyone else’s.]” This, coming from those who should have the meta-skills to evaluate expertise, is disingenuous and is simply a ploy to devalue what is ‘reasonable’.

  944. #945 Marco
    January 12, 2016

    “If you have, repudiate all 120 of the scientists quoted in the book.”

    Could you please identify which specific scientists clearly called the hockeystick *fraudulent*? And then which of the others may have said something that could reasonably be considered as suggesting nefarious data handling?

    Finally, identify in these two groups those who have domain expertise.

    You’ll find that the group of “120” is suddenly a lot smaller *and* does not contain many, or even any, with domain expertise.

  945. #946 Chris O'Neill
    January 12, 2016

    If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    I guess because getting people to believe the truth is defrauding them.

  946. #947 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    #944 Marco

    I’ve been asking Dan for a list of climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who have stated that Mann’s work is fraudulent for quite some time now.

    It is clear that he cannot provide a single name.

    Furthermore, although his original claim was that there were many ‘climate scientists’ who believed Mann’s work to be fraudulent he cannot provide a single example of such – never mind the lack of relevant domain expertise.

    Dan must by now be coming to the realisation that he has been making a false claim.

  947. #948 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    Thank you, O.A. for recalling I have publicly identified myself. For those with lingering doubts, .link to my firm website, post the picture on it (there are two Dan’s, but my last name is on the bar website), and post it here. I will then post another pic of myself for all of you to compare.

    As for BBD and others, I have posted plenty of scientists who question Mann’s methods, and call his work deceitful. Every single post meets the same response, such as so and so said “dishonest,” not fraudulent,” or so and so sub-specialty differs a little, so they aren’t reliable. The goal posts keep moving.

    How about this: read Dr. John Christy’s written testimony to the Senate on 03/31/11, in which he cites the Biffa curve. He then quotes Dr. Mann as stating that he (Mann) was disappointed that this would have negative effects on “the nice tidy story” (Mann’s words) of climate change.

    Dr. Christy then quotes from emails sent by Dr. Mann, wherin Mann says he wants to avoid “doubt” on their findings which would provide “fodder” to “skeptics.”

    Most importantly, Dr. Christy then cites an email, which refers to a “trick” to “hide the decline,” and noted that info regarding the Briffa curve as taken out of the next IPCC report.

    Note that Dr. Christy was a member, at the time, of the IPCC. Clearly, even under BBD’s stringent standards, he qualifies as an expert. Dr. Christy provides specific evidence, under oath while testifying in front of congress, that Dr. Mann and others specifically tried to downplay and exclude evidence that might go against the hockey stick.

    He then, rightly, says this is dishonest that casts doubt on the hockey sticks findings, regardless of whether further testing verified the hockey sticks findings. In other words, even if the hockey stick was later proven to be true, it does not justify or negate the dishonest (i.e. fraudulent) behavior of trying to “hide the decline.” It would no different then saying “we fixed a game, but we would have won anyway, so it doesn’t matter.” Actually, it does, and people would rightly call the game fixer a cheat, a fraud, dishonest, etc.

    I don’t know if the hockey stick has been verified, subsequently or not. I do know, based on members of the same panel, that Dr. Mann tried to “hide the decline.”

    Remember, I am not saying Mann is a fraud; only that such belief is reasonable. In light of Dr. Christy’s statements, continuing to decline same just shows your true colors as shrill advocate/whore…..

    Is it that hard to admit that some (I never said a majority) climate scientists think Mann is dishonest?

    Btw, BBD, I am not sure where you are from, but over here, we call that “check mate.”

  948. #949 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    Bernard J.: That is fine if you wouldn’t refer….unless you can pay $250 to $350 an hour…you couldn’t afford me. My records speaks for itself. In every single case I have taken to trial or binding arbitration, save one, the jury returned verdict for less then what my client offered before litigation (to say nothing of right before trial). In that one case, we had offered 40k pre-lit, jury came back at 45k. Plaintiff never demanded less then $250k. By any measure, that is still a great result…

  949. #950 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    Dean, #993: You keep missing my point. Whatever my reservations may be about the hockey stick doesn’t matter. We are discussing Mann’s lawsuit against Steyn. The issue isn’t what I think about the hockey stick, or even if the hockey stick is true or not.

    The issue is whether 1) did Steyn think Mann’s work was fraudulent, and 2) was said belief reasonable. Science doesn’t come down to majority rule. If a few scientists think Mann is dishonest based on the CRU emails, Steyn can agree with same.

    To paraphrase the 1st Amendment scholar, Prof Garber at Berkely, Steyn can think (and write) what he wants, event if it is wrong (about a public figure).

    Honestly, climate science doesn’t interest me. Free speech does. I really don’t care about the hockey stick. I care a lot about someone’s right to opine on it…

    I would even defend Mann’s right to call Steyn a “skeptic” or “#kockfunded” or whatever other stupid hash tag he has. I am a free speech purist….

  950. #951 dean
    January 12, 2016

    For someone that says you don’t know whether the hockey stick is or is not correct, you choose to repeatedly assert that it has been shown to be wrong, and ignore the citations that show that belief to be incorrect.
    Why should we believe you when you say you are neutral?

  951. #952 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    Try again, Dan. I’m not interested in obfuscatory and irrelevant bullshit.

    Just answer the relevant questions please:

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

    What’s the problem?

    2/ List climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who called Mann’s work fraudulent or admit that not a single scientist with relevant expertise has ever done this.

    What’s the problem? Get on with it will you.

  952. #953 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    Note that Dr. Christy was a member, at the time, of the IPCC. Clearly, even under BBD’s stringent standards, he qualifies as an expert.

    Not in millennial climate reconstructions. Christy has never published in this field. He has no relevant expertise whatsoever.

    Why are you struggling with this simple fact?

  953. #954 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    Remember, I am not saying Mann is a fraud; only that such belief is reasonable.

    Since MBH99 hasn’t been overturned by subsequent studies, it is *not* reasonable at all. Since nobody qualified to do so has accused Mann of fraud it is *not* reasonable at all.

    In light of Dr. Christy’s statements, continuing to decline same just shows your true colors as shrill advocate/whore…..

    Given the facts I think Christy’s statement says some very interesting things about him.

    For a lawyer, you aren’t very quick on the uptake, are you?

  954. #955 SteveP
    Planet Surface
    January 12, 2016

    BBD asked Dan for examples of ” climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who have stated that Mann’s work is fraudulent”. Dan then trotted out Dr. John Christy, who is not an expert in millennial climate reconstructions. He works primarily with satellite data, which does not represent the temperature at the Earth’s surface as accurately as calibrated surface thermometer data, and, as we all know, there were no man made satellites a millennium ago.

    The denialists such as Dan can, if they so chose, save face by pointing to deniers such as Dr. Christy and claiming that there are some scientists on their side in this argument. However, they cannot imply that someone with expertise which is largely limited to the art ( and I believe that it is too much of an art and not enough of a science) of interpreting microwave sounding data from the upper atmosphere over the past 40 years is an expert on ground level temperatures over the past 1000 years. That dog doesn’t hunt.

  955. #956 Marco
    January 12, 2016

    https://twitter.com/thirstygecko/status/686640176739684352/photo/1

    “That looks suspiciously like – I’m trying to remember the name – some sort of winter sports equipment?”
    – John Fleck

  956. #957 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    BBD, I am plenty quick on the uptake, thanks. I bring up my profession only to show I have more then a passing familiarity with not only the legal standards involved, but the legal processes involved.

    And, getting back on point, whether or not you or SteveP or anyone else cares to admit, both Drs. Curry and Christy would be qualified as an expert on climate science in any court of law in any jurisdiction within these United States and its territories.

    As for SteveP, you really missed the point of Dr. Christy’s statement (I will post a link with his full written testimony once the technical issues I am having are resolved). But, in it, he specifically stays away from the issue the hockey stick’s merit. His testimony focused on the deceitful acts of his peers on the IPCC board.

    Do you need to be an expert to realize that, when someone says they are going to “hide the decline” they are engaging in deceitful behavior. Are you, SteveP and BBD, that insecure in yourselves that you need an expert to tell you that intentionally hiding information is inherently deceptive?

    Also, if Dr. Christy is so unqualified, why was he on the IPCC board to begin with.

    But, let me ask a simple question. Do you deny the existence of emails in which Mann says he is going to “hide the decline” paraphrasing? Do you deny Christy’s contentions that evidence of the Briffa curve was omitted from the next IPCC report, before the significance of same could be determined?

    We can argue about the minute details over the specialties of each scientist, but if Drs. Curry and Christy are competent to testify before congress on climate change, including Mann’s hockey stick, the “consensus” and AGW, they are certainly competent to testify in a court of law and laypersons, such as Steyn, are certainly free to opine that the what Drs. Curry and Christy say makes sense.

    What do you guys have against free speech? If Steyn’s claims that Mann’s work is fraudulent is so obviously wrong, why does he need the protection of the court? Can’t you see the inherent contradiction in your position; i.e., Steyn said something that is so obviously false as to be defamatory, but Mann suffered damages because people believed Steyn?

    This article, as well as the other article I commented on, specifically deal with Mann’s case against Steyn. BBD, you keep asking for sources. I have asked you for one, just one, link to a law review article or other source from a constitutional scholar that says Mann has a strong case.

    You have yet to produce one…talk about a dog that won’t hunt

  957. #958 Dan
    January 12, 2016

    Dean, #950: I am referencing those posts challenging the hockey stick simply as support of the proposition that Steyn’s belief was reasonable.

    It is no different then people who call Steyn a racists. It is a facially ridiculous argument that doesn’t warrant consideration, yet I would absolutely defend someone’s right to say it (and so would Steyn, for that matter).

    THIS. CASE. IS. ABOUT. FREE. SPEECH.

    Btw, BBD, get on with it in finding legal scholars who agree with you. Otherwise, stop posting on a thread about a lawsuit and go back to playing with your fellow mann-boy lovers and their sticks

  958. #959 Marco
    January 12, 2016

    BTW, John Christy’s misrepresentation of the e-mails is duly noted, but irrelevant. At no point does Christy claim MBH99 is fraudulent or dishonest.

  959. #960 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    Also, if Dr. Christy is so unqualified, why was he on the IPCC board to begin with.

    You appear to be unaware that the Working Group 1 report is divided into different chapters, each reflecting specialised areas of science.

    As I keep on telling you, Christy was not involved with the palaeoclimate chapter because he is not a palaeoclimatologist. You *are* slow on the uptake, whatever you may claim to the contrary.

    both Drs. Curry and Christy would be qualified as an expert on climate science in any court of law in any jurisdiction within these United States and its territories.

    This makes no difference to the fact that neither has expert knowledge of millennial climate reconstructions and so neither is qualified to make technical criticisms of Mann’s work.

    But, let me ask a simple question. Do you deny the existence of emails in which Mann says he is going to “hide the decline” paraphrasing?

    Yes. That was Phil Jones, who had nothing whatsoever to do with Mann’s palaeoclimate work. You haven’t got the first idea what you are talking about. You appear to be a bluffer as well as rather slow on the uptake.

    Now, stop dodging and answer the questions:

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

    2/ List climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who called Mann’s work fraudulent or admit that not a single scientist with relevant expertise has ever done this.

  960. #961 BBD
    January 12, 2016

    Dan

    Btw, BBD, get on with it in finding legal scholars who agree with you.

    So slow on the uptake. This discussion is about whether or not *you* understand what you are talking about and whether or not you are dishonest. Haven’t you worked that out yet?

    Good grief.

  961. #962 dean
    January 12, 2016

    and so would Steyn, for that matter

    I’m sure he would be “fine” being called for his racism.

    Do you need to be an expert to realize that, when someone says they are going to “hide the decline” they are engaging in deceitful behavior.

    If you are not an expert in an area and not in the working group then making a comment on a throw-away line when you have no clue of the context is foolish.

    You seem to be quite gifted in ignoring the questions, claiming neutrality, and then (dishonestly) saying Mann’s work was fraudulent.

  962. #963 Brainstorms
    January 12, 2016

    Desperate Denier Dan, answer the questions!

  963. #964 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    BBD: You would think the conversation is about me? What does it matter what I think? I did realize my thoughts regarding climate change matter that much that Greg posted a blog about.

    Try again: This post, and every other post I have commented on on this site deal with Mann v. Steyn and free speech.

    I have already admitted I am not an expert on climate change, or any scientific issue. I can freely admit same.

    Can you admit that you are not an expert regarding legal matters (which I will hold myself out to be, particularly in litigation-related matters).

    also, does the fact that you are so concerned with me mean you have conceded Mann has no case?

    Btw, you can say I am slow on the uptake all you want, but (and this might be difficult you to understand), but the market dictates value. when someone pays you $250 to $350 an your for anything, much less advice in your chosen field, let me know.

    I have identified myself, personally and professionally, as O.A. noted. Are you willing to identify yourself?

  964. #965 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    To make it easy, here is my professional profile: http://www.rmcmlaw.com/dibio.html

  965. #966 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    Here is my google+ profile. Feel free to compare photos…

    https://plus.google.com/105419480778202288007/posts

    Now, BBD, do you have the courage to publicly back up your comments?

    Didn’t think so…

  966. #967 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    BBD: Up thread, I mentioned Dr. Eduardo Zorita (sp?), and his well-documented criticisms of the hockey stick, including dishonesty. Dr. Zorita is a paleoclimatologist.

    Satisfied? I will re-link for you, if need be…

  967. #968 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 12, 2016

    BBD: Want more: Here is a letter from Dr. John Hepps (I may have misspelled his name; check link), that succinctly summarizes the dishonest, and fraudulent work, of Mann and his colleagues. You can agree with the good Doctor, you can disagree. That is the beauty of free speech.

    the entire point of my posts is that Steyn is well within in rights to call Dr. Mann a fraud, and same is not defamation. IN support, I link to various climate scientists, INCLUDING PAELO CLIMATOLOGISTIS (e.g., Dr. Eduardo Zorita, who says Mann and his colleagues should be removed from the IPCC because of their bullying tactics).

    http://www.undeceivingourselves.org/I-ipcc.htm

    BBD: Check mate. Give it up…there is plenty of justification for Steyn opinions re: Mann, even if they are not true, or you disagree.

  968. #969 Chris O'Neill
    January 12, 2016

    IN support, I link to various climate scientists

    A.k.a, the many-small-wrongs-make-a-right argument.

  969. #970 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 12, 2016

    Re: posting anonymously

    Since my name came up, I’ll just point out that I tend to make an issue of it when a commenter argues from personal authority.

    IMO, posting anonymously can be a good thing, but as a point of netiquette such comments should be expected to stand or fall on their merits or lack there of. And in that case, also as a point of netiquette, anonymity should be respected by other commenters… IMO.

    There are exceptions. It’s understood that Tamino, for instance, knows what he’s talking about.

    Anyway, I have no doubt that certain of the commenters here could come up with way better expert witnesses than Dan. I suspect that one or two might BE better witnesses than Dan could come up with.

  970. #971 Chris O'Neill
    January 13, 2016

    the hockey stick, including dishonesty

    Every time anyone says “the” hockey stick while referring to a particular one, they are being dishonest. The MBH 98/99 hockey stick is not “the” hockey stick. There are many hockey sticks.

    Complaining about dishonesty while dishonestly saying “the” hockey stick is ironic as well as dishonest.

  971. #972 Chris O'Neill
    January 13, 2016

    the hockey stick .. fraudulent .. “hide the decline.”

    Whatever “decline” it was that was hidden, it had nothing to do with the hockey stick result that was published in MBH 98/99.

    Dan is recklessly and dishonestly conflating the two issues. He is being defamatory.

  972. #973 Marco
    January 13, 2016

    “Up thread, I mentioned Dr. Eduardo Zorita (sp?), and his well-documented criticisms of the hockey stick, including dishonesty. Dr. Zorita is a paleoclimatologist. ”

    Actually, you documented Eduardo Zorita wanted Mann and others removed from the IPCC, not that he had well-documented criticisms of the hockeystick including dishonesty.

    Eduardo Zorita actually did have some comments on MBH98/99, but he and his co-author Hans von Storch managed to make a rookie mistake in that criticism (sadly not found out by the peer reviewers) by not properly initializing a climate model. This was implictly admitted in one of their later papers.

    Hilariously, Zorita is also co-author on the link I gave in #955: that reconstruction is very. very much a hockeystick…

  973. #974 BBD
    January 13, 2016

    Dan

    First, I have every right to online anonymity. You will respect that right or I will ask that you be moderated here.

    * * *

    BBD: Up thread, I mentioned Dr. Eduardo Zorita (sp?), and his well-documented criticisms of the hockey stick, including dishonesty. Dr. Zorita is a paleoclimatologist.

    Satisfied? I will re-link for you, if need be…

    Dishonest or stupid? Read the question (2) again. Link to the bit where EZ calles Mann’s work fraudulent.

    Let’s review question (2):

    2/ List climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who called Mann’s work fraudulent or admit that not a single scientist with relevant expertise has ever done this.

    If we take your assurances that you aren’t an idiot at face value, then your repeated failure to answer this simple question is dishonest.

    Hepps is not a palaeoclimatologist and is therefore not qualified to make technical criticisms of Mann’s work, up to and including specious crap about dishonesty.

    Either you are in fact fairly stupid or your resistance to the simple point about technical competence is dishonest.

    BBD: Check mate.

    Be serious.

    Now, back to those never-answered questions. When you are in court, what do you make of someone who will not answer simple questions?

    What does a jury make of such a person?

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

    2/ List climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who called Mann’s work fraudulent or admit that not a single scientist with relevant expertise has ever done this.

    Answers in your next comment please. If you aren’t stupid you must be aware that failure to respond clearly and unequivocally is evidence of dishonesty.

  974. #975 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    What does a jury make of such a person?

    “Must be guilty of something he’s hiding…” This will NOT go well for Steyn.

    Dan, why don’t you explain to these blog readers what “Jury Nullification” means?

    The jury will “not be experts regarding legal matters”, but they will have powers that you’d rather not admit exist in this legal system…

    Let’s take a look:

    Jury nullification occurs in a trial when a jury acquits a defendant, even though the members of the jury may believe that the defendant did the illegal act, yet they don’t believe he or she should be punished for it. This may occur when members of the jury disagree with the law the defendant has been charged with breaking, or believe that the law should not be applied in that particular case. A jury can similarly unjustly and illegally convict a defendant on the ground of disagreement with an existing law, even if no law is broken.

    Oh my! With Steyn’s very public record of very intense malicious ill-will towards Mann, and the published fact of him stating that Mann committed fraud, I do not think the jury is going to be sympathetic with Steyn…

    This trial result is in no way as cut-and-dried as you want to make it out to be, Dan…

  975. #976 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms #975

    Jep – jury nullification can happen.

    In fact, most lawyers will tell a client that there is a 33% chance of losing any jury trial – no matter how good your case is.

    You never know what 12 (or 9) random people might decide, based on the law read to them by the Judge and the evidence introduced at trial.

    I doubt Dr. Mann is counting on jury nullification to win – but it could happen.

  976. #977 Desertphile
    January 13, 2016

    RickA: I doubt Dr. Mann is counting on jury nullification to win – but it could happen.”

    Er, you mean “Steyn,” not “Dr. Mann.” Sheeeish. And you expect sane people to take you seriously?

  977. #978 RickA
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile #977:

    Brainstorms is saying Dr. Mann could win by jury nullification.

    I am agreeing.

    Do you disagree with everything I say reflexively?

  978. #979 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    January 13, 2016

    RickA: “Brainstorms is saying Dr. Mann could win by jury nullification.”

    No, Sub-genius, he did not: you did. Brainstorms explained what jury nullification is. Jury Nullification in this case means Dr. Mann would lose, Sub-genius— not win. Sheeeish.

  979. #980 dean
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    It’s very clear now that neither dan nor rickA will ever give an honest answer or answer a direct question about their assertions of fraud by mann (why they think there was, where they get their support, etc.)
    That lack of response puts the lie to their claims of being unbiased about the science.

  980. #981 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    I think RickA has previously admitted that his motivation for denying the conclusions that science indicates is because he wants to avoid the personal financial consequences that dealing with our CO2 pollution requires.

    Dan the Desperate Science Denier has revealed the same agenda, once the wool was pulled away and his phoney “nice guy who is only interested in the Free Speech issue” persona turned into his nasty-ass lawyer-without-morals true self with all its associated nasty rhetoric and won’t-answer-the-questions dishonesty.

  981. #982 RickA
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile #980:

    Look at the section Brainstorms bolded.

    Steyn is the defendant.

    Mann is the plaintiff (equivalent to the State in a criminal matter).

    Brainstorm’s example is saying the defendant (Steyn) could still be convicted (found liable) by a jury – even if Mann proved failed to prove he was libeled (i.e. no law was broken). This would be Mann winning by jury nullification.

    If Brainstorm had wanted to provide an example in which Steyn won by jury nullification he would have bolded the sentence before the one he did bold. That is an example in which the jury finds for the defendant (Steyn) even if the State proved guilt (or in our situation finding for Steyn even if Mann proves he was libeled).

    But you are not a lawyer and this is confusing, so don’t feel bad that you have no idea what you are talking about.

  982. #983 Desertphile
    January 13, 2016

    RickA: Desertphile #980:

    Look at the section Brainstorms bolded.

    Steyn is the defendant.

    Mann is the plaintiff (equivalent to the State in a criminal matter).

    Brainstorm’s example is saying the defendant (Steyn) could still be convicted (found liable) by a jury – even if Mann proved failed to prove he was libeled (i.e. no law was broken). This would be Mann winning by jury nullification.”

    Chief Justice John Jay, in year 1805, explained what jury nullification is in the USA; that explanation still stands, and still applies, in the USA today. It means the law was #1 ignored by the jury after the jury judged the defendants guilty, and #2 the jury said the defendant is not guilty; in 1993 precedent was set that ruled jury nullification cannot be over-ruled by a judge.

  983. #984 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile — It actually can work both ways, but is almost always taken as “a person who broke the law can be found innocent if the jury feels the law is no good”.

    The rarer(?) case is that a jury can find for the plaintiff even if the defendant technically did not break the law, if they think the law really should find him guilty.

    In this case, RickA did get it right: In Mann’s trial, even if Steyn could escape a libel verdict on a legal technicality (I.e., definition of “actual malice”, etc.), the jury can go right ahead and find Steyn guilty of libel anyway.

    I alluded to this earlier: See #648.

  984. #985 Desertphile
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms: Desertphile — It actually can work both ways, but is almost always taken as “a person who broke the law can be found innocent if the jury feels the law is no good”.

    The rarer(?) case is that a jury can find for the plaintiff even if the defendant technically did not break the law, if they think the law really should find him guilty.”

    Okay…. I concede that “it can.” But how often, and how does anyone know it happened? Juries are not required to give explanations for their decisions.

    I have written to the guy who wrote the book on the subject: Professor Lars Noah. I asked him if he knows of any legal case where jury nullification found a not guilty person “guilty.”

  985. #986 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms #981:

    No – I never said that.

    I have questioned the science you think is so clear and I have indicated that we (collectively) shouldn’t spend money on something if there is no benefit or a very small benefit (the plan needs to pass a cost/benefit analysis).

  986. #987 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    Most people don’t know about jury nullification and don’t know that juries can “rewrite the laws” on this case-by-case basis.

    Dan keep stating with confidence that Mann will lose, but he’s blowing smoke up everyone’s ass. The jury WILL decide, and Steyn has made it too easy for them to determine what “Justice” should be in this case.

  987. #988 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    RickA, do you purchase any type of insurance?

    Tell us why or why not.

  988. #989 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    dean #979:

    I have answered all questions put to me.

    I have never claimed to be unbiased about the science.

    I am biased – but so is everybody else.

    I explained upthread that nobody ever accused Mann of being a fraud and I explained (more than once) that it is my opinion that the hockey stick graph (if I have to pick one I pick the WMO cover with no caption) is fraudulent because, in my opinion, Dr. Mann created this graph to deceive, because of his advocacy.

    The WMO cover hockeystick graph doesn’t even indicate the temperature record is grafted onto the proxy data. Everyone knows the proxy data diverged (went down – got cooler) while the temperature data went up (got warmer). Dr. Mann listed the WMO graph on his CV.

    That is just one example. I could also list the censored directory (with versions of the graph which were not as impactful), the calculation of the R2 statistic, then not reporting it, then lying about generating it. I could mention the principal components analysis – I could mention the de-centering – I could mention strip-bark – I could go on and on – there are many many things about the hockey stick graphs which have been published which a person could reasonably rely on to find it to be an attempt to deceive or mislead (i.e. fraudulent).

    But if you feel I have not answered some question – please ask again.

  989. #990 Chris O'Neill
    January 13, 2016

    According to RickA:

    Dr. Mann created this graph to deceive

    How do you know it was deception when it was the truth?

    The WMO cover hockeystick graph doesn’t even indicate the temperature record is grafted onto the proxy data.

    So what? Anyone who wanted to know could easily find out.

    Everyone knows the proxy data diverged (went down – got cooler)

    You’re a pathological liar RickA. Only a minority of the proxy data diverged.

    I could mention the principal components analysis

    What’s wrong with principal components analysis?

    I could mention the de-centering

    You could mention that de-centering introduces a tiny and insignificant bias but you won’t because you’re only interested in repeating misleading information.

    I could mention strip-bark

    You could mention that using strip-bark proxies is a matter of professional opinion but you won’t because you’re only interested in repeating misleading information.

    Of course, all the above is purely of historical academic interest only because we all know (or should know) that “the” hockey stick (in the general sense) has been demonstrated many, many times using a variety of proxies and methods and it is telling us that the world is almost certainly warming faster and warmer than it has been for the past 1,000 years. That is what we should be thinking about.

  990. #991 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    RickA: Dr. Mann created this graph to deceive….

    Heh. Funny. And it was Dr. Mann’s thesis adviser, Dr. Barry Saltzman, who suggested that the instrumentation record be appended to the proxy MBH98 reconstruction—- so it was Dr. Saltzman who “created this graph to deceive.”

    Chris O’Neill: How do you know it was deception when it was the truth?

    The same way he knows everything: his anus told him.

  991. #992 dean
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    You could mention all those things that you’ve said you have no understanding of but you know they are wrong? Really.

  992. #993 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms #985-6:

    Yes – either side can lose and either side can win.

    I do buy insurance when the cost/benefit analysis I perform says to.

    However, I do not buy all types of insurance.

    For example, I do not buy cancer insurance (my health insurance covers me if I get sick from cancer).

    I do not buy accidental death or dismemberment insurance (my life insurance covers me no matter how I die – assuming I don’t kill myself that is).

    Spending trillions, which makes everything (food, fuel, transportation, heating) more expensive, for a very small decrease in potential warming is like buying cancer insurance – not prudent.

    I personally think more people (especially in the third world) will be hurt by this waste of money than will be helped.

    But – my insurance would be to replace coal power plants with nuclear and to fund more research on grid level power storage and cheaper non-carbon producing power generation (cheaper than coal, natural gas and oil – you know – hydrocarbon energy).

    This will cost some incremental money – but is a form of insurance I think does pass a cost/benefit analysis (since we have to replace the power plant anyway – why not replace it with nuclear – which is baseload (by which I mean not intermittent)).

    But it is hard to compare my plan to anybody elses – because no one on this site has laid out a plan to compare to mine.

  993. #994 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    dean #988:

    Sorry – your comment does not compute.

  994. #995 RickA
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile #991:

    Ok – I will bow to your superior knowledge (grin).

    Brainstorms #983 – thanks for agreeing that I got it right.

  995. #996 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    RickA: thanks for agreeing that I got it right.

    RickA, of course I will agree with you — and give you credit — when you get it right.

    We’re scientists; we’re obsessed with “getting it correct” with regards to issues that can be boiled down to facts. (This excludes politics, legal issues, fashion, entertainment, etc.)

    And this points out an important (key) issue: When something is factually correct, it matters not a wit who determines it, states it, discovers it, restates it, etc. “Reality” is the only thing that we can all, independently, objectively, discover on our own and happen to have accord on. The rest is opinion and politics.

    And woe be unto the creature who tries to palm off opinion and politics as “their own set of facts”. That will not stand.

  996. #997 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile: any legal case where jury nullification found a not guilty person “guilty.”

    God knows there are many cases where a corrupt DA has found a not guilty person “guilty” !

  997. #998 Desertphile
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms: Desertphile: any legal case where jury nullification found a not guilty person “guilty.”

    God knows there are many cases where a corrupt DA has found a not guilty person “guilty” !”

    Plea bargaining appears to exist chiefly to put not guilty people in prison.

    I concede your point, and RickA’s point, that it is vaguely conceivable a jury could return a verdict of “guilty” against Steyn at al when the jury thinks the defendants are not guilty; I deny that would be an example of “jury nullification.” I see that WikiPedia disagrees with me.

    Several minutes ago I sent email to the person who literally wrote the book on the subject; he is also an expert in tort litigation, and liability issues. Heh. If he doesn’t know of an example of a “guilty” verdict in a jury nullification context, I suspect no one will.

  998. #999 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    in my opinion, Dr. Mann … because of his advocacy.

    I should add that Reality is totally unaffected by the politics of those who discover & disclose it — no matter which “side” that person is on.

    Mann’s advocacy is completely irrelevant to the issue of quantifying and qualifying AGW and its effects.

    It only comes into play regarding the political issue of how best to mitigate its effects — if in does at all.

  999. #1000 Desertphile
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms: Mann’s advocacy is completely irrelevant to the issue of quantifying and qualifying AGW and its effects.

    Advocacy includes skills in self-defense. I suppose (but don’t know) that Dr. Mann would not be the popular and well-known science advocate he is if he had not been falsely and fraudulently defamed, libeled, slandered, harassed, and persecuted.

  1000. #1001 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    RickA #989: I do buy insurance when the cost/benefit analysis I perform says to.

    Tell us about the cost/benefit analyses that you perform to make these decisions.

    Do you rely on data gathering and analysis by third parties when you weigh these issues and decide that it’s prudent to purchase insurance?

  1001. #1002 Brainstormsw
    January 13, 2016

    … Dr. Mann would not be the popular and well-known science advocate he is if he had not been falsely and fraudulently defamed, libeled, slandered, harassed, and persecuted.

    Which Mann’s lawyers should point out at trial: The defense cannot claim innocence because “Mann is a public figure” if it was their crime that made him a public figure.

  1002. #1003 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    it is vaguely conceivable a jury could return a verdict of “guilty” against Steyn at al when the jury thinks the defendants are not guilty

    I think it’s a stronger assertion than that: it is conceivable a jury could return a verdict of “guilty” against Steyn et al because the jury thinks the defendants are guilty, irrespective of what the law says regarding technicalities of the definition of malice that might get Steyn off the hook otherwise.

    And I doubt any jury is going to sympathize with Steyn, as he’s made such an ass out of himself publicly. Anyone who knows anything about him is a liability to their lawyers. Voire dire only allows so many attempts to “load the jury box”…

  1003. #1004 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    … Dr. Mann would not be the popular and well-known science advocate he is if he had not been falsely and fraudulently defamed, libeled, slandered, harassed, and persecuted.

    Which Mann’s lawyers should point out at trial: The defense cannot claim innocence because “Mann is a public figure” if it was their crime that made him a public figure.

  1004. #1005 RickA
    United States
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms #997:

    No – just my own analysis.

    Take life insurance – if you are not married and have no kids you don’t need it.

    If you are married, but retired and your kids are grown up – you don’t need it.

    If you are young, married and have young children – you need it.

    Life insurance (in my opinion) is to provide for your family if you die early. If your wife works full time – you need less than if you are the sole breadwinner.

    And so on . . .

  1005. #1006 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    Brainstorms #1000:

    Mann was a public figure long before Steyn wrote his opinion piece.

    Dr. Mann was made into a public figure when his PhD thesis got him selected to be a lead author of the IPCC report (cannot remember which one).

    That is what made him famous – that and being audited by Climate Audit.

  1006. #1007 RickA
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile #998:

    Thank you.

  1007. #1008 skeptictmac57
    January 13, 2016

    Desertphile it may well be the case that jury nullification was responsible for the conviction in the high profile case of Steven Avery of ‘Making a Murderer’ fame.
    http://mimesislaw.com/fault-lines/why-steven-avery-juror-cant-change-the-result/5958

  1008. #1009 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    RickA #989: I do buy insurance when the cost/benefit analysis I perform says to.

    Tell us about the cost/benefit analyses that you perform to make these decisions.

    Do you rely on data gathering and analysis by third parties when you weigh these issues and decide that it’s prudent to purchase insurance?

    #1003: No – just my own analysis.

    Have you performed “your own analysis” of all the data regarding AGW and the observed effects that it’s been having on our planet’s climate such that you are competent to come to a meaningful conclusion regarding how much insurance the globe’s nations need to “purchase” to deal with the “negative consequences” should the results as determined by expert analysts come to pass

    Please enlighten us… We want to know how you can make these determinations on your own.

  1009. #1010 Chris O'Neill
    January 13, 2016

    #1003: No – just my own analysis.

    According to RickA’s “analysis”, when the IPCC says a > 0, it means a < 0.5.

    Needless to say, I wouldn’t trust RickA’s “analysis” as far as I could throw him.

  1010. #1011 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 13, 2016

    To put this in perspective, Mann is the focus of foil hat hysteria and hatred because Al Gore made effective use of the hockey stick in “An Inconvenient Truth.”

    It is largely about smearing climate science by association, because denialists have nothing.

    Scientific opinion:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature

    http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

    https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php

    Skeptical organizations:
    http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/fight-misinformation/global-warming-skeptic.html#.Vpbydmt5lP4

    Hockey Stick Myth vs Fact, RealClimate:
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/

    It’s worth noting that there is so much garbage out there that it’s become an object of scientific study in it’s own right. Note also that the SkepticalScience site is basically an encyclopedic index of debunked myths that are nevertheless endlessly repeated by the English speaking world’s biggest nut jobs playing word games…

    “If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him.”
    ― Cardinal Richelieu

  1011. #1012 Brainstorms
    January 13, 2016

    … nevertheless endlessly repeated by the English speaking world’s biggest nut jobs playing word games…

    Except that they are guided by entities that are anything but nut jobs. Those pulling the strings are very much aware, malevolent, amoral/immoral, corrupt & corrupting, and short-term/self-centered thinkers.

    They worship money and power and spit on “mere” human being and their daily concerns for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for themselves and their families.

    They have no moral qualms whatsoever about piling on the fossil fuel & CO2-generating profits as doing so condemns these “mere proletariat” to death, displacement, loss of their homes, loss of their investments, starvation, flooding, crop losses, weather disasters, etc. They’ll escape the consequences on the backs of their thousand-dollar bills.

    Sic your Cardinal Richelieu on those fat cat big-wigs. It should be easy to recruit the gallows builders…

  1012. #1013 Bernard J.
    January 13, 2016

    BBD, I am plenty quick on the uptake, thanks.

    Not on the subject of climate science you’re not.

    Or on the difference between ‘then’ and ‘than’.

    That is fine if you wouldn’t refer….unless you can pay $250 to $350 an hour…

    Your fees are irrelevant to the discussion.

    Another logical fallacy.

    My records [sic] speaks for itself.

    Your record in medical malpractice may be exemplary, although even then it doesn’t discriminate between a successful understanding of the nuances of actual medical practice and a mere successful ability to convince a court that you have such an understanding with respect to the relevances in law, whether or not you actually have any such medical practice understanding.

    In science you demonstrate a very poor understanding of the actual, real status quo – your comments and referencings here show that you are more inclined to accepting minority non-scientific hearsay and misrepresentation than you are the appropriate expertise, and this suggests that you would base any case on the sort logical fallacy that you all too readily employ on this thread.

    It might work in some courts, but as a scientist I’d rather work with the truth.

    And, getting back on point, whether or not you or SteveP or anyone else cares to admit, both Drs. Curry and Christy would be qualified as an expert on climate science in any court of law in any jurisdiction within these United States and its territories.

    I’ve addressed this previously. In Curry’s case she’s an “expert” in the same way that a chef in a roadside diner is a comparable chef in a three star Michelin restaurant. That you can’t seem to fathom that this matters in an objective analysis of the science, irrespective of whether she would be permitted in a court (or a senate committee) as an “expert” witness, indicates that your argument on the science itself is not based in objective truth and fact but in subjectively malleable impression and semantics.

    Yet again your point is a fallacious one. Quite simply, just because a court might accept Curry (or Christy) as experts on human-caused climate change science does not mean that they are experts. And the professional science community knows quite well that they’re not, no matter how much the lay denialist community believes otherwise.

    And if you treat the science in this way, why should anyone believe that you would not similarly treat your own domain of law in the same manner?

    Quite frankly though I would be delighted to see Curry and Christy called as expert witnesses in a court case. Unlike media interviews or senate testimonies a court case permits the introduction of real experts to counter the claims of such witnesses, and allows for a continuing countering of claims to the point that fallacy, error, misunderstanding and misrepresentation are uncovered. A competent plaintiff councel team would quickly show Curry and Christy to be emperors with not a stitch of clothing. To have that demonstrated in court would be a lovely thing, even if Mann were to be unsuccessful in his claim for defamation damages.

    …go back to playing with your fellow mann-boy lovers and their sticks

    You really are a grub.

    …there is plenty of justification for Steyn opinions re: Mann, even if they are not true, or you disagree.

    You are simply trotting our a list of people you agree with Steyn. Doing so does NOT prove that Steyne believes his claims about Mann to be true. Plenty of people may be happy to shill for various agents and defame Mann, even if they have some passing but scientifically-irrelevant professional experience, but this does not prove that they didn’t know that what they said was incorrect. And Steyne, by his own long public engagement in the discussion of human-caused climate change, has had a lot of demonstrable exposure to the true science: his acceptance of the denialist stance can only indicate a willful confirmation bias or a deliberate attempt to mendacious distortion of the facts.

    If this is how you would defend Steyne yourself, I most definitely wouldn’t pay you $300/hr to stuff up a case on the hope of an incompetent opposing councel, no matter how much that stratagem might have worked in the past.

    RickA.

    Spending trillions, which makes everything (food, fuel, transportation, heating) more expensive, for a very small decrease in potential warming is like buying cancer insurance – not prudent.

    As Brainstorms is alluding to at #1007 your understanding of the human and non-human ecological costs of global warming are extremely poor, to the point of absence. In such a case your opinion becomes worthless and irrelevant, except where it is used as an instrument in propaganda and other activities of logical fallacy.

  1013. #1014 Bernard J.
    January 13, 2016

    …a chef in a roadside diner is comparable to a chef in a three star Michelin restaurant…

  1014. #1015 Bernard J.
    January 13, 2016

    I have a comment in moderation, in case anyone thinks that doesn’t make sense.

  1015. #1016 Chris O'Neill
    January 13, 2016

    It’s very clear now that neither dan nor rickA will ever give an honest answer or answer a direct question

    That’s because they’re trolls.

  1016. #1017 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    RickA

    there are many many things about the hockey stick graphs which have been published which a person could reasonably rely on to find it to be an attempt to deceive or mislead (i.e. fraudulent).

    And I could tell you that every single one of your contrarian talking points is either a misunderstanding, a misrepresentation or actual bullshit.

    Then I could appeal to reason.

    I could ask you (require you) to answer the same question that Dan will not answer:

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    You need to answer this question directly, without equivocation.

    If you refuse to answer as required, I could invite anyone interested – a jury for example – to draw their own conclusions about all the rubbish spouted about the hockey stick.

    And you would be stuffed.

  1017. #1018 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    RickA

    “I explained upthread that nobody ever accused Mann of being a fraud and I explained (more than once) that it is my opinion that the hockey stick graph (if I have to pick one I pick the WMO cover with no caption) is fraudulent because, in my opinion, Dr. Mann created this graph to deceive, because of his advocacy.”

    I have previously asked you what evidence you have of Mann’s advocacy, particularly at the time of MBH98/99 and that WMO graph. You ignored that question, so I’ll just repeat it again here.

    Note that the questions don’t stop there. My next question would be why anyone who wants to deceive (as you claim Mann did) would have [A] *someone else* prepare a graph (Phil Jones made the graph) as [B] cover art for a report that is read by very few people (the WMO report and this particular graph were not ‘discovered’ until ten years later), where [C] the WMO report itself refers the reader to a discussion paper that discusses the reconstructions and which shows the data as they appear in the peer reviewed publications (without any surface temperature record added)?

    This reminds me of the “divergence problem” issue, where people claimed this was hidden – hidden in plain sight as it was discussed in the scientific literature…

  1018. #1019 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: This reminds me of the “divergence problem” issue, where people claimed this was hidden – hidden in plain sight as it was discussed in the scientific literature…

    Also the changes to GISS GLB.Ts+dSST data series: the entire project was hidden in the related science journals, on NASA’s HTTP web site, and NASA’s Gopher and Archie servers for anyone who wanted to could learn about it. The project to change GLB.Ts+dSST was so well hidden, NASA (specifically, Dr Hansen) asked literally anyone and everyone in the world to work on the project. The project was so well kept secret that I learned about it in a IAU press release more than a decade before the changes to the data were applied.

    Denialists are still insisting the GLB.Ts+dSST changes were done in secret, for sinister purposes. WORSE CONSPIRACY, EVVVVVVVVARRRRR!

  1019. #1020 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    This:

    “The WMO cover hockeystick graph doesn’t even indicate the temperature record is grafted onto the proxy data. Everyone knows the proxy data diverged (went down – got cooler) while the temperature data went up (got warmer). ”

    is also an interesting remark by RickA, since others claimed they did *not* know the proxy data diverged and that *this* was evidence of fraud (see also my last remark above). It is perhaps also relevant (and something I strongly suspect RickA did not know) that only ONE of the reconstructions from proxy data had a divergence problem. That wasn’t Mann’s reconstruction, but that of Keith Briffa (who had discussed this in the scientific literature).

  1020. #1021 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: It is perhaps also relevant (and something I strongly suspect RickA did not know) that only ONE of the reconstructions from proxy data had a divergence problem. That wasn’t Mann’s reconstruction, but that of Keith Briffa (who had discussed this in the scientific literature).

    And gosh, there’s even a famous stolen email about that decline.

  1021. #1022 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    And then finally there is this:

    “there are many many things about the hockey stick graphs which have been published which a person could reasonably rely on to find it to be an attempt to deceive or mislead (i.e. fraudulent).”

    Where I have to wonder what RickA considers “reasonably”. If he means “based on ignorance”. After all, Wahl & Ammann have shown that the final result is essentially the same, even when supposed problematic issues are taken into account. So, why would MBH make decisions that are supposedly deceptive, when the results would be essentially the same if they had made different (and supposedly better) choices?

  1022. #1023 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    RickA: “…. there are many many things about the hockey stick graphs which have been published which a person could reasonably rely on to find it to be an attempt to deceive or mislead (i.e. fraudulent).”

    I have not been able to find one, let alone “many many.”

    As for “attempt to deceive or mislead,” since the data are correct, and since the graph accurately shows what happened, and since more than 36 independent reconstructions show the same “hockey stick” pattern— did Dr Mann accidentally produce quality, accurate work in his attempt to deceive?

  1023. #1024 RickA
    January 14, 2016

    BBD #1016:

    You require me to answer:

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    First – no one has ever said that the reconstructions presented in MBH 98 and MBH 99 were fraudulent.

    This is not about the reconstructions.

    This is about Dr. Mann’s hockey stick GRAPH which was said to be fraudulent.

    But in general I would say that the new reconstructions which replaced the old Mann reconstructions all do show that the Earth has warmed – certainly since the little ice age.

    Many of the new reconstructions use the same bum data as the old – upside down varves, in essence one tree from yamal and so on, and there are many criticisms of the new reconstructions also.

    But this trial is not about the science – it is not about Mann’s reconstructions – it is about the graph. It is about Dr. Mann’s state of mind and in what decisions went into making the graph. It is about Mr. Steyn’s state of mind in making his statements.

    Marco #1019:

    Reasonably, in that context means what 12 (or 9) jurors find based on the facts and the law.

    As I have stated before:

    1. It is my opinion that Steyn’s statement is opinion.
    2. It is my opinion that Steyn’s statement is not false (jury question) and is actually true (question for the judge on summary judgment).
    3. It is my opinion that Steyn’s statement was not made with actual malice.

    Given those opinion – I think a jury could reasonably find for Steyn.

    Other people are free to have different opinions – and that is ok.

  1024. #1025 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    #1020 RickA

    First – no one has ever said that the reconstructions presented in MBH 98 and MBH 99 were fraudulent.

    This is not about the reconstructions.

    This is about Dr. Mann’s hockey stick GRAPH which was said to be fraudulent.

    What?! Er, Rick – the graph is the reconstruction.

    Many of the new reconstructions use the same bum data as the old

    That’s simply incorrect. One of the fun things about this discussion is that you get hockey sticks whatever proxies you use.

    But this trial is not about the science – it is not about Mann’s reconstructions – it is about the graph.

    And now you know that the graph is the reconstruction which has been validated by all subsequent work and so shown not to be fraudulent. It will indeed be interesting to see what a jury makes of all this.

  1025. #1026 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    Did anyone note that RickA *again* ignored my request?

    So I repeat it again:
    “I have previously asked you what evidence you have of Mann’s advocacy, particularly at the time of MBH98/99 and that WMO graph. You ignored that question, so I’ll just repeat it again here.”

    After you answer that question, be also prepared to answer the follow-up question I posed.

  1026. #1027 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: So I repeat it again: “I have previously asked you what evidence you have of Mann’s advocacy, particularly at the time of MBH98/99 and that WMO graph. You ignored that question, so I’ll just repeat it again here.”

    CRICKETS.WAV

    The denialist mentality includes conflating “is” with “ought.” Stating a fact is viewed as “advocacy.” That behavior is driven by the fear of social (and therefore economic) displacement— we even know some of the brain chemistry involved (CB1 and CB2 receptors, among others, in the bilateral amygdala) that regulates “fear recognition.” It is not only a conditioned response: it is also congenital.

    It is utterly pointless to explain reality to people like “RickA:” there are biological barriers in place that render the attempt futile.

    That’s an “is,” not an “ought.”

  1027. #1028 RickA
    United States
    January 14, 2016

    BBD #1025:

    How do you know that the graph referred to by Steyn was from MBH98 or MBH99?

  1028. #1029 RickA
    January 14, 2016

    Marco #1026:

    Dr. Mann’s science papers are advocacy. It is my opinion that he has an axe to grind. It is my opinion that he takes the data and massages it until it is “spun” to best show what he is trying to show. Namely that the warming has been “unprecedented” in the last 400 years (MBH98) or the last 1000 years (MBH99) or the last 2000 years (MBH2008).

    It is the argument that the warming is unprecedented which is advocacy. It is important to Dr. Mann that the warming be “unprecedented” because that is his proof that the culprit is human emitted CO2.

    If the warming we are experiencing is no more than the MWP (which was not caused by CO2) than his cries for action are not as persuasive.

    If the warming is no more than the Roman warm period – ditto.

    I base my opinion, in large part, by reading climate audit over the years.

    I base my opinion on climategate and the shocking emails.

    But it is an opinion.

    I am entitled to mine and you are entitled to yours.

    It is my opinion that Steyn will win (for example).

  1029. #1030 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    #1025

    Oh, come off it RIck. Don’t be childishly evasive. Mind you, I see that we’ve finally broken through your blinkers if you are resorting to nonsense like this. So I’m encouraged.

    * * *

    #1026 Marco

    Yes.

    A pattern emerges.

  1030. #1031 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Dr. Mann’s science papers are advocacy.

    STOP arguing from assertion and demonstrate by example and quotation please. As you have repeatedly been asked to do.

  1031. #1032 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD: Really, you are just showing your intellectual dishonesty. This all started when you finally agreed Steyn is only liable if Mann can show Steyn did not honestly and reasonably believe his comments, and then said Steyn was only reasonable if a scientist had said the same thing.

    I have met your burden, over and over again. You just refuse to see it.

    First, what is your fixation on the word “Fraud.” Steyn doesn’t even use that word in his post that is the basis of the lawsuit. He says Mann manipulated data, which is exactly what Dr. Zorita says. (Actually, Steyn didn’t say it, he just agreed with a prior post by co-defendant. Steyn also specifically walked back from the Sandusky comment).

    Second, just as I said, you keep moving the goal posts. First you say I need a scientist, which I provided. Then it has to be a climate scientist. Fine, did that. Next, you said it really had to be a paeleoclimatologist. Ok, showed you that. Then you say it doesn’t count, because they used different terms. I then provide a paleoclimatologist who says exactly what Steyn said.

    Why is it so hard to admit there is a scientist, in the same field, who claims Mann tried to manipulate the results? I have listed members of the IPCC, tenured professors, senate committee witnesses, etc. You don’t have to believe them. Personally, I have no reason to think Zorita lied, whereas Mann has been caught, at the very least, exaggerating his credentials and most probably knowingly lying.

    Lastly, it is ironic that this discussion happens in this post, because Greg’s labeling Steyn a racist is far more defamatory then anything Steyn said about Mann (although, Steyn being a public person, etc).

    I have given you legal and factual authority supporting my premise that Mann’s case lacks merit.

    I will patiently await you to provide same in support of Mann…

  1032. #1033 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    RickA, you now state that your evidence for advocacy is in the graphs themselves?! This is not even wrong, to paraphrase Wolfgang Pauli.

    But let’s try and ask question 2 again anyway:
    “why would anyone who wants to deceive (as you claim Mann did) would have [A] *someone else* prepare a graph (Phil Jones made the graph on the WMO cover) as [B] cover art for a report that is read by very few people (the WMO report and this particular graph were not ‘discovered’ until ten years later), where [C] the WMO report itself refers the reader to a discussion paper that discusses the reconstructions and which shows the data as they appear in the peer reviewed publications (without any surface temperature record added)?”

    I think RickA can now rightfully be classified to be among the “dismissives”, as Sou calls them. People impermeable to facts, running around in their own little universe, where physics is trumped by ideology and personal “opinions”.

  1033. #1034 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: But let’s try and ask question 2 again anyway:
    “why would anyone who wants to deceive (as you claim Mann did) would have [A] *someone else* prepare a graph (Phil Jones made the graph on the WMO cover) as [B] cover art for a report that is read by very few people (the WMO report and this particular graph were not ‘discovered’ until ten years later), where [C] the WMO report itself refers the reader to a discussion paper that discusses the reconstructions and which shows the data as they appear in the peer reviewed publications (without any surface temperature record added)?”

    There is a much better question: if Dr. Mann wanted to deceive people, why did he not do so?

  1034. #1035 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    RickA: This is the M.O. of these types. They demand information upon information, without providing any themselves (as non-lawyers, they might not know that Mann has the burden; Steyn has none, except for has affirmative defenses, which will be moot if Mann doesn’t meet his case in chief…

  1035. #1036 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    Dan, you did not provide evidence Zorita claimed Mann tried to manipulate the results of his study. You provided a link to a piece by Christopher Booker stating Zorita had asked Mann and Jones (and a few others) to be barred from the IPCC. Not a single word from Zorita himself that Mann had manipulated the results of his study.

    I wonder how well this would be received at a trial: Dan the lawyer caught in misrepresenting what his evidence states. The prosecution would love it! Asking the jury time and time again that “should you trust *anything* this lawyer has to say? Just see how he misrepresents his evidence!” Your client would probably run quickly to a new lawyer at a different firm.

  1036. #1037 RickA
    United States
    January 14, 2016

    Desertphile #1031:

    You said “Stating a fact is viewed as “advocacy.”

    Lets test that.

    Fact: The null hypothesis is that any climate change is natural.

    Fact: The burden of proof is on science, therefore, to show that human emitted CO2 is changing the climate.

    Fact: Science has shown a correlation between the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming.

    Fact: Science has not yet ruled out that some of the warming since 1950 is caused by nature (i.e. non-human). That humans have caused all warming since 1950 is an assumption.

    How are we doing so far?

    Have I advocated anything yet?

  1037. #1038 RickA
    January 14, 2016

    Desertphile #1036:

    Dr. Mann did mislead people.

    Read this post:

    http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/22/hiding-the-decline/

    Judith says:

    “There is no question that the diagrams and accompanying text in the IPCC TAR, AR4 and WMO 1999 are misleading. I was misled. Upon considering the material presented in these reports, it did not occur to me that recent paleo data was not consistent with the historical record. The one statement in AR4 (put in after McIntyre’s insistence as a reviewer) that mentions the divergence problem is weak tea.”

    So people were misled. If they were misled on purpose they were deceived. It is my opinion that Dr. Mann (a lead author of TAR and AR4) misled on purpose and therefore deceived.

    That is my opinion.

  1038. #1039 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    RickA: But, But, but, Dr. Curry is only a climate scientist, not a paleoclimatologist. Who cares if she is a tenured professor at well-respected technical university, frequently published, and has testified before congress. She don’t know nothing about Dr. Mann’s work.

    And, and, and, she said Dr. Mann’s work was “misleading,” not fraudulent, so there….

    /end sarcasm

  1039. #1040 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: You don’t need to wonder how well I will be received at trial. They are matters of public record. I will be happy to show you my results, all of which (except one) were a resounding victory for my client, and they other was just a mere victory, not resounding (in the sense that we offered 40k before trial, jury came back at 45k. P asked for 300k). In my resounding victories, the jury came back at less then what my client offered to settle for before trial, never mind what P asked for.

    Read the full link (I forget what post). Dr. Zorita said that Mann bullied those who disagreed with him, and tried to suppress data that went against the hockey stick. Heck, Steyn has a entire section in his book on Zorita’s comments.

    Nice try….

  1040. #1041 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Not-a-Fact: “Science has not yet ruled out that … humans have caused all warming since 1950; is an assumption.”

    Fact: Science has determined that humans have caused all warming since 1950.

    Try, try again, RickA. Spin, spin, spin.

    Ever notice that science & reality do not bend to your lawyerly rhetorical tactics?

  1041. #1042 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    RickA, 1038: And that is Steyn’s opinion, which is protected speech and not libelous.

    I find it so amusing that these people can’t even admit that some of Mann’s colleagues say he is dishonest. I am not even asking them to admit that Mann is dishonest (they can have their own opinions), just that some of his colleagues think so.

    Steyn just published an entire book full of such claims…it really is amusing…

  1042. #1043 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Dan the Denier and his fellow crusader RickA are mentally crippled by their training as lawyers.

    They were trained and have careers in a venue where force of argument and clever rhetoric can “win the day” and decide principles and laws…

    Now they come to a venue of science and hard reality and delude themselves into thinking that the rules that govern science are just as amenable to argument and clever rhetoric as their political and legal venues…

    And they have their heads handed to them.

    But are too clueless to realize that they are not “winning” here. Because they fundamentally cannot win here.

    You two legalistic clowns think you can redefine the laws of physics because you think you can outmaneuver the scientists here with your clever rhetoric.

    But you’re too self-focused and hard-headed to notice this won’t work. Nature makes mincemeat of fools like you.

  1043. #1044 dean
    January 14, 2016

    “only a climate scientist, not a paleoclimatologist.”

    So not being a specialist in an area and so not being trained in specific, relevant items in an area, so you don’t have the expertise, is irrelevant, and you can still comment on the stuff you haven’t studied as long as your followers have the correct worldview?

    How fundamentally dishonest of you.

  1044. #1045 RickA
    January 14, 2016

    Brainstorms #1041:

    You said “Fact: Science has determined that humans have caused all warming since 1950.”

    Cite please.

  1045. #1046 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    RickA: You said “Fact: Science has determined that humans have caused all warming since 1950.”

    Cite please.

    Yes, many hundreds of times. Why should the smart kids continue to do so?

  1046. #1047 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Dean, what Dan is implying is this:

    The fact that the scientists commenting in this blog have no relevant legal expertise in libel law is irrelevant to making a valid opinion on the proper outcome of Mann’s trial.

    Ergo, the point of view of the scientists on Mann’s case against Steyn is just as valid if not more valid than that of trained lawyers Dan & RickA.

    Thank you, Dan, for validating our views on this issue.

  1047. #1048 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    #1032 Dan

    BBD: Really, you are just showing your intellectual dishonesty. This all started when you finally agreed Steyn is only liable if Mann can show Steyn did not honestly and reasonably believe his comments, and then said Steyn was only reasonable if a scientist had said the same thing.

    No, Dan, the problem here was the one you got nailed for ~500 comments ago. It has to do with *you* and the way you peddle contrarian talking points for all you are worth while dishonestly claiming only to be discussing the law. See eg. #489 #525 #538 etc.

    We have arrived at the point where your refusal to answer questions demonstrates that you are being dishonest. You know it, I know it and everybody else here knows it.

    First, what is your fixation on the word “Fraud.”

    You use it, constantly.

    Second, just as I said, you keep moving the goal posts.

    Rubbish. The question you refuse to answer remains the same:

    2/ List climate scientists with domain expertise in millennial climate reconstructions who called Mann’s work fraudulent or admit that not a single scientist with relevant expertise has ever done this.

    Why is it so hard to admit there is a scientist, in the same field, who claims Mann tried to manipulate the results?

    Because you are fabricating this claim. Go on – prove it with quotes and links to the original source.

    I then provide a paleoclimatologist who says exactly what Steyn said.

    Go on – quotes, links – or retraction.

  1048. #1049 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Cite please.

    Ibid.

  1049. #1050 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Intellectual dishonesty, Dan:

    [#101 Dan:]

    Jack Walters: You are absolutely right, and Steyn already has found Ivy League and other top scientists who will testify on his behalf. Two of them appeared at the hearing: Dr. Judith Curry, and the other gentleman who is a professor at Princeton.(I believe his name is Dr. Happer, but I could be wrong).

    If you buy Steyn’s book, the list of those scientists who believe Mann is a joke and (dare I say) a fraud is a long list indeed. Notably, a good portion of that list actually disagrees with Steyn and Curry, et. al, re: climate change. That is, they believe climate change exists, and that humans are playing a big role.

    However, they still think Mann’s research is suspect and (what is that word, again?) fraudulent…

    Shall we go through every single one of your comments where you allege that Mann’s work is fraudulent or claim that ‘scientists’ say it is?

    The thing that is missing from your incessant peddling of this meme (which has nothing at all to do with the law, hence the stench of duplicity arising from your commentary) is a single example of a climate scientist calling Mann’s work fraudulent.

  1050. #1051 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    “Fact: The null hypothesis is that any climate change is natural.”

    Fact: a null hypothesis can be constructed in many ways, but this isn’t the way to go. In principle you are arguing that the null hypothesis should be that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere do not appreciably affect the temperature of the hydrosphere and atmosphere. However, that would be a null hypothesis that goes against basic physics. thus, one could just as easily and appropriately take as the null hypothesis that all climate change is largely due to changes in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The impact of man on this is a separate hypothesis that can be tested.

    Let me guess, you are not a scientist?

    “Fact: The burden of proof is on science, therefore, to show that human emitted CO2 is changing the climate.”

    Which science has done.

    “Fact: Science has shown a correlation between the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming.”

    Actually, it has done more than that: it has provided a *mechanistic explanation* for the correlation, supported by *multiple lines of evidence* that the correlation is causative.

    “Fact: Science has not yet ruled out that some of the warming since 1950 is caused by nature (i.e. non-human). That humans have caused all warming since 1950 is an assumption.”

    The best evidence so far is that humans *are* responsible for >100% of the warming since the 1950s. Science can in principle never rule anything out, and putting a 100% burden of proof would mean no science would ever be useful in life. You would not even dare jump up in the sky, since science *cannot rule out that gravity does not exist*.

    “How are we doing so far?”
    So far you are doing pretty poorly.

    “Have I advocated anything yet?”
    Yes, you have advocated the “oh, but we don’t know everything yet, so we don’t know nothing” approach to life.

  1051. #1052 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    “Read the full link (I forget what post). Dr. Zorita said that Mann bullied those who disagreed with him, and tried to suppress data that went against the hockey stick. ”

    You forgot what post (hint: it starts with a 6 and ends with 83), because *you did not provide such post with a link that supported your claim*! You’d be skewered at trial for such evidence.

    The quote Steyn uses to promote his book is “Michael Mann, Phil Jones and Stefan Rahmstorf should be barred …because the scientific assessments in which they may take part are not credible anymore.”

    Perhaps there’s more in Steyn’s book, but I doubt it says Mann manipulated his data (in the sense of inappropriate data handling. Why I think this?
    Simple:
    http://www.desmog.uk/2015/06/24/mark-steyn-s-newest-attack-michael-mann-and-hockey-stick

    “Zorita did get back to me about Steyn’s use of his quote. He told me that the quote is essentially accurate, and that he has put it on his personal web page several years ago. He was concerned about the perception of objectivity in the IPCC process, so perhaps these researchers should not be part of the process given the controversy at the time caused by the famous Climategate hacked emails.

    However, he was careful to note that his statement was “not related to the quality of their scientific work. Actually, my statement was a suggestion to isolate the IPCC process from the credibility crisis linked to Climategate.”

    So this is about perception, not about the quality of the science or the validity of the Hockey Stick.

    He went on to say, “I feel that those political attacks, especially those against Michael Mann in the US, have no justification.”

    Zorita told me that he felt the Hockey Stick was something of a public relations mistake.

    “The irony is that the hockey-stick is not a proof and not a disproof of anthropogenic climate change. As Stefan Rahmstorf correctly wrote, if the hockey-stick had not existed the case for [anthropogenic global warming] AGW would not be stronger or weaker. But the hockey-stick had become its symbol and the subject of political manoeuvring.”

    Interesting idea. Zorita also indicated that he is in the camp of seeing much more variability in the older surface temperature record than the original Mann Et Al research indicated, adding “this has had no relevance for the case of AGW.” ”

    So, let me briefly summarize that with the money quote for you, and another for RickA.
    Dan’s money quote: “[his statement was] not related to the quality of their scientific work.”

    For RickA: “The irony is that the hockey-stick is not a proof and not a disproof of anthropogenic climate change”.

  1052. #1053 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Dan:

    Read the full link (I forget what post). Dr. Zorita said that Mann bullied those who disagreed with him, and tried to suppress data that went against the hockey stick.

    Actually, that link is to just a claim by Booker that: “Dr Eduardo Zorita, has called for Dr Mann and Dr Jones to be barred from any further participation in the IPCC.”

    Everything else is either made up by Dan or he’s quoting something made up by someone else.

    i.e. Dan is bullshitting us.

  1053. #1054 Marco
    January 14, 2016

    “I find it so amusing that these people can’t even admit that some of Mann’s colleagues say he is dishonest.”

    Even if it were true, it is irrelevant to the case; Steyn and the others are not being accused of having called Mann dishonest.

  1054. #1055 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    RickA:

    Judith says

    Curry is deranged.

    Why do you automatically believe supposedly qualified people even when they are deranged, RickA? Automatically believing people is risky at the best of times, but when they’re deranged??

  1055. #1056 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    RickA

    So people were misled. If they were misled on purpose they were deceived. It is my opinion that Dr. Mann (a lead author of TAR and AR4) misled on purpose and therefore deceived.

    That is my opinion.

    *How* can you have been deceived if there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the hockey stick?

    Why will you not answer the following question?

    1/ If the reconstructions presented in MBH98 and MBH99 were fraudulent then why has getting on for two decades’ of further research only refined and confirmed them?

    Perhaps because it is clear, unequivocal evidence that Mann did not deceive anybody?

  1056. #1057 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016
    Many of the new reconstructions use the same bum data as the old

    That’s simply incorrect. One of the fun things about this discussion is that you get hockey sticks whatever proxies you use.

    Indeed. The above claim by RickA is one of the memes that floats around denialist blogs.

  1057. #1058 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Marco: sigh/ You just love personal attacks, don’t you. Every time someone disagrees, they are a liar. Zorita did say Mann manipulates data. In the quota above, he specifically says Mann should be of the IPCC because he is not credible.

    Want another source? http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2009-12-01-climate-fraud-kills-people/#.Vpf8FGfTn85

    Note Zorita’s claim that Mann, among others, engaged in “conspiracies” and “collusion.”

    I will await your apology, although I suspect I will be waiting a long time.

    Btw, I love how you think I care if you think I am lying, or a shitty attorney, or whatever, as if anything said here has anything to do with my professional obligations. Unless you are my boss, my client or my wife, I really don’t care what you think of me or my credibility (but, since you seem concerned, my clients love, thanks, at least to the tune of hundreds of dollars an hour)

  1058. #1059 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Actually, that last post was in reference to Chris O’Neill, although Marco has brought up the “shitty lawyer stick”. The only reason I identified myself was because I was challenged to do same….

    BBD: whether or not the hockeystick is legit has nothing to do with Mann deceiving people. If Mann, as Dr. Zorita, amongst others have said, bullied people to suppress opinions, ignored data which didn’t fit his conclusion, and didn’t candidly acknowledge that he gave some information more weight then others, that is deception.

    It is not different then cheating in a sporting event: Cheating is cheating, even if they would have won anyway

  1059. #1060 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Brainstorms: what the f#%k are you talking about, with experience in libel law. I never implied any such thing. A better analogy would be a lawyer, but not a libel lawyer. Certainly they have some basic knowledge of libel law.

    Just like a climate scientist who is not a paleoclimatologist has knowledge above and beyond a lay person. But it is a moot point, because I quoted a paleoclimatologist who says Mann manipulated data and is not credibile

  1060. #1061 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD: so was Dr. Zorita lying when he claimed that Mann should be kicked off the IPCC for engaging in “conspiracies” and “colluding” to exclude data that didn’t confirm his desired results?

  1061. #1062 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Chris, great summary quote from your citation in #1055 (emphasis mine):

    The reason this [issue] has become ‘contentious’ has nothing to do the MBH and everything to do with people not wanting climate change to be a problem. Icons that arise for whatever reason attract iconoclasts. Noise in the blogosphere does not correlate to seriousness in climate science. As your comments make abundantly clear, you have very little knowledge on this issue and have done no independent investigation of the wild claims being made. Yet the more smoke there is, the more you appear to want to blame MBH for the fire. A ‘certain amount of spin’? Seeing conspiracies everywhere you look is not ‘spin’, it is paranoia. Real scientific controversies get resolved in the literature for the people who actually care about getting things right. For those that don’t, continued repetition of long debunked talking points seems to be their only tactic. I, for one, am pretty tired of that and heartily bored of pointing them out.

    “The fact of the matter is that we are far beyond the point where people need to either s*** or get off the pot. Continuing to whine about what selection rules were used in a PCA analysis 12 years ago without coming up with any constructive alternative, continuing to complain about a centering convention that makes no difference whatsoever, continuing to moan about error analyses being inadequate without doing a single stitch of work to improve them… enough, already! Science moves forward because people do actual work. Nothing happens when people just sit in a room and complain about the state the world. The people who are actually publishing in this field are doing all of the things you seem to think are being ignored, while the people whose work you are reading are doing nothing but complain about how they are being ignored. I’m very confident about which group will make the most progress in future. – gavin”

  1062. #1063 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick:

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/07/08/2261531/most-comprehensive-paleoclimate-reconstruction-confirms-hockey-stick/

    So…. if Dr. Mann meant to deceive someone, why did he not do so?

  1063. #1064 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Dan

    BBD: whether or not the hockeystick is legit has nothing to do with Mann deceiving people.

    Oh yes it does, my disingenuous friend. The contrarian claim is that the HS is misleading (and in your case, that it is fraudulent). If it is, in fact, essentially robust, then it can neither mislead nor be fraudulent.

    * * *

    so was Dr. Zorita lying when he claimed that Mann should be kicked off the IPCC for engaging in “conspiracies” and “colluding” to exclude data that didn’t confirm his desired results?

    No quote, no link, no response. Either prove that you aren’t making this stuff up or I will continue to assume that you are.

  1064. #1065 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    Did Dr Mann use the wrong methods to come up with the correct result, then use the correct result to deceive someone into believing the correct result?

    If this is true, please deconstruct to tell us what the motivation was behind the deception to mislead toward the correct conclusions.

    Was he leading people away from incorrect conclusions using deceptive means? Or being deceptive about mislead people away from misconceptions that would lead to incorrect conclusions, so that they would end up believing the correct results?

    But if you say “no”, then why did he not deceive anyone, if you are making the claim that he was deceptive?

    If he was advocating, was he advocating for deceiving the misleaders so that everyone gets the correct conclusions? Or was he advocating for getting results correct in the face of deceptive misleading tactics by critics who didn’t like the correct results?

    Or maybe the deceivers are the ones who are advocating, and they’re advocating for deceptions about the correct results, in order to mislead those who would make policies to believe fraudulent claims that incorrect conclusions are true, so that they won’t address a real problem that the deceiving advocates want to hide… Namely the incline in global temperatures that Mann brought attention to.

    That must be it.

  1065. #1066 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    Brainstorms: Did Dr Mann use the wrong methods to come up with the correct result, then use the correct result to deceive someone into believing the correct result?

    Yes, Dr. Mann did that. Sneaky, and fiendishly clever! He’s like all the James Bond super villains rolled in to one, deceiving people with the evidence. Can one one stop him?!?!?!?!11111“`one

  1066. #1067 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Just published, we have Wilson et al. (2016) Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context.

    Essentially confirms MBH99.

    Eduardo Zorita was an author.

    One just has to smile, sometimes.

  1067. #1068 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    The contrarian claim is that the HS is misleading (and in your case, that it is fraudulent). If it is, in fact, essentially robust, then it can neither mislead nor be fraudulent.

    That is, in fact, the root justification that Dan the Denier offers for why he thinks Steyn is not guilty of libeling Mann.

    Dan, is your argument valid or not valid? That is, is Steyn innocent of libel, and therefore Mann is not guilty of fraudulence? Or is Mann still misleading, and therefore Steyn is guilty of libel?

    Which is it?

  1068. #1069 Brainstorms
    January 14, 2016

    I think in chess they call that putting yourself in the position of being forked.

    Congratulations Dan the lawyer: You have forked yourself.

  1069. #1070 Dan
    Las VEgas
    January 14, 2016

    Brainstorms: Your question makes no sense. But to clarify, I firmly believe, as do all legal scholars who have commented, that Steyn did not libel Mann. Whether or not Mann’s work was fraudulent makes no difference. As has been said, and backed up with legal authority countless times, the issues is whether Steyn believed Mann’s work was dishonest, and said belief was reasonable.

    BBD: There is nothing inconsistent whatsoever in Dr. Zorita believing the hockey stick is valid, and still thinking Mann is dishonest. Please tell me you understand that simple concept.

    The issue is whether Mann manipulated data, not whether such manipulation was necessary at the end of the day (and, it is even worse if Mann manipulated data when his results would have been verified anyway).

    You aren’t very bright, are you?

  1070. #1071 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD, your “robust” comment (whatever you were trying to say) makes no sense. You can reach the right result with fraudulent methods. This is difficult.

    Plus, the fact that you think anyone who disagrees with you is disingenuous shows your lack of maturity. Your probably some 20 year old kid living with mommy and daddy getting your kicks off of trolling online.

    Good luck with that….

  1071. #1072 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD: Yes, I did give you a quote from Dr. Z. Go to the link inpost 1058, go about 20 paragraphs down. That entire paragraph is Zorita’s comments about Mann and his colleagues. Zorita is directly quoted in the article calling Mann, and his colleagues, dishonest.

    READ. THE. LINK.FULLY. AND. IN. CONTEXT.

    Jesus you’re obtuse

  1072. #1073 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Brainstorms 1065: It is hard to prove motive (which is why Steyn will win), but, I presume when Mann, per Zorita, was “colluding” and “bullying” (his words) to suppress data, it was prior to any firm consensus.

    In other words, the issue was up in the air and he took actions which, in hindsight, might not have been necessary.

    This is all conjecture, of course, but it shows why the validity of the hockey stick is a completely different issue then whether or not Mann was deceptive…

  1073. #1074 RickA
    United States
    January 14, 2016

    BBD #1066:

    You said “Essentially confirms MBH99.”

    However, this paper says:

    “1161-1170 is the 3rd warmest decade in the reconstruction followed by 1946-1955 (2nd) and 1994-2003 (1st – see Table 2). It should be noted that these three decades cannot be statistically distinguished when uncertainty estimates are taken into account.”

    So a MWP decade is statistically tied with two modern decades, when taking uncertainty estimates into account.

    That means that the current warming is not unprecedented in the last 1000 years – which contradicts MBH99.

    So I disagree with you that this paper essentially confirms MBH99.

    Whatever caused that warming in 1161-1170, it sure wasn’t human emitted CO2.

    More evidence of natural variability, which seems to be large enough to encompass our current warming.

    Which begs the question.

    How much of the warming we have experienced from 1880 to the present is caused by humans and how much by natural variability?

    I have always conceded that some portion of the warming we have experienced is human caused. However, I just don’t believe 100% is human caused, based on everything I have read. The unanswered question (to me anyway) is how much warming are we causing?

    100% or 50%?

    Since I think ECS will turn out to be 1.5C, which is 1/2 of 3C – it looks to be like 50% human caused is closer to the truth than 100%.

  1074. #1075 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Dan

    You can reach the right result with fraudulent methods. This is difficult.

    […]

    The issue is whether Mann manipulated data, not whether such manipulation was necessary at the end of the day

    This is so laughable as not to merit a response.

    The reason the hockey stick has never been overturned by subsequent work is that it is essentially correct. No deception, no fraud.

    Since Zorita has just co-authored a study that essentially confirms MBH99, it looks as though he mis-spoke, doesn’t it?

    No deception, no fraud.

    * * *

    The delusional clown you link claims Zorita said:

    “I may confirm what has been written in other places: research in some areas of climate science has been and is full of machination, conspiracies, and collusion, as any reader can interpret from the CRU files.”

    No mention of Mann and the link supposedly sourcing the quote doesn’t work. This is not what I asked for. Try that in court and see how far you get. Stop wasting my time with nonsense like this please.

  1075. #1076 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    RickA

    So a MWP decade is statistically tied with two modern decades, when taking uncertainty estimates into account.

    That would be summer temperature in the NH mid-high latitudes. Read the paper instead of quote-mining ATTP’s article. You might also re-read his response to you while you are at it.

    Now, remember this bit: Wilson 16 does not provide a global temperature reconstruction so cannot be used to claim statistical equivalence with the modern *global* annual average temperature.

    Since I think ECS will turn out to be 1.5C, which is 1/2 of 3C – it looks to be like 50% human caused is closer to the truth than 100%.

    An ECS of 1.5C is incompatible with palaeoclimate behaviour. You’ve had this explained to you before and if you choose to reject valid information, you are on your own. Your opinion is – as I have pointed out before – irrelevant, not least because it runs counter to the evidence. All you’ve got is Lewis’s stuff which doesn’t support a 1.5C ECS anyway and which is methodologically biased to produce underestimates. I can’t understand this for you; you are just going to have to take the blinkers off. Or not.

  1076. #1077 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD, 1075: What the heck are you talking about? Zorita mentions Mann in the very sentence before the one you quote?

    See, I know your silly games; see all the time from people who think they are much more clever then they are. That is why I told you to read the entire paragraph, in context. If you did, you would have realized (hopefully) that the sentence you quote directly refers to Mann and his cohorts…

    Dude, that is almost as bad as the “dishonest” doesn’t mean “fraud” even though Steyn never said fraud he needs to show a climate scientist who I approve to show fraud…

    Also, are you disputing the accuracy of the Zorita’s quote by that “clown.”

  1077. #1078 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD: Need more? Enjoy, in Zorita’s own words. Please read fully. Let see if you can figure out the misconduct alleged…

    http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/05/the_decay_of_the_hockey_stick.html

  1078. #1079 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    BBD: If you read this link, and do not admit some climate science professionals think Mann is a fraud, dishonest, etc., you will do nothing but confirm your lack of intellectual honesty…

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/more-than-1000-international-scientists-dissent-over-man-made-global-warming-claims/5403284?print=1

    In fact, there is a direct quote calling Dr. Mann a fraud…

    Enjoy…

    Let’s see how honest you are now….

  1079. #1080 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    And, no, Zorita didn’t misspeak. If you look at some of his comments, he specifically says he agrees with man-made global warming, he just disagrees with the bullying, dishonest, fraudulent tactics of Mann, in part because such deception is not necessary, and it tarnishes legitimate research…

    and when you say a comment doesn’t merit a response, it means you don’t have one…

    Isn’t past your bedtime yet?

  1080. #1081 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Dan

    What the heck are you talking about? Zorita mentions Mann in the very sentence before the one you quote?

    No, the nutter who wrote the article mentions Mann in the sentence before the Zorita quote. Are you this slapdash in court?

    All Zorita’s rhetoric boils down to this (from the Nature blog you link at #1078):

    The 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC now presents a whole range of historical reconstructions instead of favoring prematurely just one hypothesis as reliable.

    And what does that get us? A bunch of hockey sticks that refine but do not overturn MBH99 – which is what I’ve been attempting to explain to you all along. All the confected rubbish about fraud and deception changed nothing at all. No fraud, no deception.

    AR4 WG1 6.1.1 :

    The weight of current multi-proxy evidence, therefore, suggests greater 20th-century warmth, in comparison with temperature levels of the previous 400 years, than was shown in the TAR. On the evidence of the previous and four new reconstructions that reach back more than 1 kyr, it is likely that the 20th century was the warmest in at least the past 1.3 kyr. Considering the recent instrumental and longer proxy evidence together, it is very likely that average NH temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were higher than for any other 50-year period in the last 500 years. Greater uncertainty associated with proxy-based temperature estimates for individual years means that it is more difficult to gauge the significance, or precedence, of the extreme warm years observed in the recent instrumental record, such as 1998 and 2005, in the context of the last millennium.

  1081. #1082 Ed Darrell
    Dallas, Texas
    January 14, 2016

    Haven’t read the entire thread, so I’m not sure someone else didn’t make this point earlier (and probably better).

    Testifying to a committee of Congress does not immunize testimony from action. In a few cases, Congress grants immunity to people accused of criminal activities to get some important testimony, and sometimes that blows up on them, as when Oliver North later argued that the Senate slipped and offered him full immunity instead of partial immunity, and so his conviction of various felonies for selling missiles to the Ayatollah had to be vacated.

    BUT, Steyn is not accused of a crime, AND, so far as I’ve been able to tell, there was no offer of immunity for anything from the committee (no vote on it I can find).

    SO, it’s possible that the judges could hold Steyn in contempt for his attempts at derision of the them, the courts, science and scientists, and American justice in general.

    If he’s pro se, he probably hasn’t figured out that there’s very little appeal from a contempt citation.

    We can hope.

  1082. #1083 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    Dan

    BBD: If you read this link, and do not admit some climate science professionals think Mann is a fraud,

    Which ‘climate science professionals?

    The word ‘fraud’ appears eight times in your link. Not once is it uttered by a climate scientist.

    You continue to make false claims. Are you this sloppy in court?

    Now, are you going to withdraw this latest one? Let’s see how honest you are shall we?

  1083. #1084 BBD
    January 14, 2016

    and when you say a comment doesn’t merit a response, it means you don’t have one…

    Okay, Dan, if you insist.

    You can reach the right result with fraudulent methods.

    This is fucking idiotic. Happy now?

  1084. #1085 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Actually, I am because it shows this rather simple concept is above your head. You cannot state a logical rejoinder, so you simply curse. Brilliant…

    How is it inconsistent to say he still couldn’t reach the right results? He should have considered the data he ignored before reaching his conclusions, but he was so vested in his result that he didn’t . The ironic part is, had he included that data, it very well might not have mattered.

    Why is that so hard to understand. Oh yeah, you’re the person who doesn’t understand synonyms, metaphors, etc….I guess abstract thought is beyond you.

  1085. #1086 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 14, 2016

    Do you want to ask my clients if I am sloppy in court? Or how about my wife, who enjoys the generous fruits of my labor….

    The fact that you think arguing on a blog is remotely similar to litigating in a court of law just proves, again, your immaturity.

    Those scientists call IPCC work fraudulent. They are all extremely well-credentialed. And, since you brought up litigating (like you know what the heck you are talking about) experts can testify regarding cross-specialties. in other words, a spine surgeon can offer opinions about pain management treatment, a cardiologist can offer testimony regarding the necessity of a proposed spine surgery, etc., and, yes, a physicist can offer testimony regarding climate change, as can a meteorologist, geologist, etc., etc….

    Want legal cites for that also?

  1086. #1087 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    a physicist can offer testimony regarding climate change,

    Doesn’t mean that testimony is worth anything, of course.

  1087. #1088 Dan
    Las Vegtas
    January 14, 2016

    What, exactly do, do you want me to withdraw? Notice how you are moving the goal posts again. There are links above from Dr. Curry calling Mann a fraud. She is a climate scientist. Btw, I don’t see anything in Mann’s CV indicating he is the paleoclimatologist. He is a professor of atmospheric sciences, which happens to be the same professorship Curry holds at Georgia Tech (meteorology).

  1088. #1089 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Dan:

    He should have considered the data he ignored

    How do you know he ignored it?

  1089. #1090 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Dan:

    Do you want to ask my clients if I am sloppy in court?

    So if you’re not this sloppy in court, why are you so sloppy here?

  1090. #1091 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 14, 2016

    “You can reach the right result with fraudulent methods.”

    It sounds highly probable therefore, that the practice of complex science can, without nuanced understanding of the systems involved, but with a little motivated mind reading and a glib wave of the hand, be simply reduced to a comedy of errors by any old sophist.

  1091. #1092 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Looks like Zorita’s personal webpage http://coast.gkss.de/staff/zorita/ where a long time ago he is purported to have written: “editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations, even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed” has been taken down.

    Not only that, but none of the archived versions of Zorita’s personal webpage appear to contain the above quote (the first or last at least).

    Looks like the Great Global Warming Conspiracy, greatest conspiracy of all time, strikes again.

    Steyn will have to find someone other than Zorita to testify for him.

  1092. #1093 Desertphile
    January 14, 2016

    “… editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations, even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed….”

    Google shows the phrase is repeated about 758 times on the Internet, by The Usual Suspects. No where is it explained who has been bullied and blackmailed, who did the bullying and backmailing, or why.

  1093. #1094 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Dan:

    Zorita just disagrees with the bullying, dishonest, fraudulent tactics

    BTW, neither of the words dishonest and fraudulent appear in the quote from Zorita.

    Looks like Dan is bullshitting (lying to) us.

  1094. #1095 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    RickA:

    That means that the current warming is not unprecedented in the last 1000 years – which contradicts MBH99.

    No. That means that the current (1998) warming MIGHT not be unprecedented in the last 1000 years – which does not contradict MBH99. MBH99 did not deal in certainties, unlike RickA.

  1095. #1096 Chris O'Neill
    January 14, 2016

    Dan:

    It is hard to prove motive (which is why Steyn will win)

    I’m not a lawyer, but in my small understanding the thing that needs to be proven is damage. Whether Steyn intentionally wanted to cause damage or not doesn’t matter. You are liable for damages you cause whether you intended to cause them or not.

  1096. #1097 Chris O'Neill
    January 15, 2016

    Dan:

    Marco:

    Me apparently. Dan is a bit careless with the facts.

    You just love personal attacks, don’t you.

    No. I like to point out a lie when I see it. It’s your problem if you think having a lie pointed out is a personal attack.

    Face it Dan, you were bullshitting us when you said:

    Read the full link (I forget what post). Dr. Zorita said that Mann bullied those who disagreed with him, and tried to suppress data that went against the hockey stick.

    That link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html has a claim by Booker that “Already one respected US climate scientist, Dr Eduardo Zorita, has called for Dr Mann and Dr Jones to be barred from any further participation in the IPCC.” i.e. it’s a claim by Booker AND it doesn’t say anything about Zorita saying “Mann bullied those who disagreed with him, and tried to suppress data that went against the hockey stick”, your assertion that the link does say that notwithstanding.

    Face it Dan. You told an untruth.

  1097. #1098 Marco
    January 15, 2016

    “Note Zorita’s claim that Mann, among others, engaged in “conspiracies” and “collusion.” ”

    and

    “when Mann, per Zorita, was “colluding” and “bullying” (his words) to suppress data”

    Once again Dan makes up stuff. The exact quote provided in the link you give is: “I may confirm what has been written in other places: research in some areas of climate science has been and is full of machination, conspiracies, and collusion, as any reader can interpret from the CRU files.”

    Which mentions Mann exactly where? Nowhere!
    Which mentions “bullying to suppress data” exactly where? Nowhere!

    Now, Dan responds to someone pointing out Mann is not mentioned in connection with the collusion etc by saying:
    ” Zorita mentions Mann in the very sentence before the one you quote? ”

    But he doesn’t…what Ivo Vegter did was connect two separate comments. A complete transcription of what Zorita wrote (the original piece on Zorita’s page has gone) is here:
    http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/11/eduardo-zorita-on-climategate.html

    And then Dan provides us with another link, stating “Enjoy, in Zorita’s own words. Please read fully. Let see if you can figure out the misconduct alleged…”

    Where there is once again no statement that explicitly links *Mann* to any of the claims of possible wrongdoing that Zorita makes. Once again, Dan *makes stuff up*.

    Now it should be mentioned that Zorita (and his boss, von Storch) have been asked on mulitple occasions to provide evidence for their claim about collusion, machination and conspiracies. Their best response has been to say “everyone can see that in the e-mails”, and make some vague mutterings about “not providing data”.

    Rahmstorf in particular has challenged people to come with specific examples that include him, and said he was willing to explain and substantiate anything and everything he said in the e-mails. No examples were ever provided. Rahmstorf then *did* provide a wonderful example of Zorita and von Storch acting political, and not scientific: when Z and vS challenged the hockeystick (MBH98/99, and in passing also McIntyre’s criticism) and used a climate model to do so. Rahmstorf and some of his local colleagues thought they saw that climate model was not appropriately initialized. They thus asked for the data. Z and vS refused to give that data, claiming the request was just political. Some years later, after that Nature comment of the two, Z and vS admitted, tucked away in an article in a rather obscure journal, that the climate model may indeed have been improperly initialized.
    You can chose yourself whether not clearly acknowledging the mistake was worst, or the refusal to share data while later mentioning refusal to share data as evidence of bad scientific behavior.

  1098. #1099 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    Dan

    Another false claim:

    What, exactly do, do you want me to withdraw? Notice how you are moving the goal posts again. There are links above from Dr. Curry calling Mann a fraud.

    Curry did not call Mann a fraud. She explicitly stopped short of doing so.

    Are you going to withdraw this false claim about Curry?

    And what about your previous false claims? What about this one?

    BBD: If you read this link, and do not admit some climate science professionals think Mann is a fraud,

    Which ‘climate science professionals’?

    The word ‘fraud’ appears eight times in your link. Not once is it uttered by a climate scientist.

    Despite stating dozens of times that ‘climate scientists’ say that Mann is a fraud you have not been able to produce a single quote supporting this claim. Not one, despite repeated challenges to do so.

    So when are you going to withdraw your own false claim?

    What does it take to get you to admit what is obvious to all?

    What do you think it looks like when you keep on doubling down on your dishonesty in full public view?

    * * *

    <blockquoteActually, I am because it shows this rather simple concept is above your head.

    The simple concept that is above *your* head is that if the graph is essentially correct then it cannot be materially misleading. Your argument literally boils down to “2+2=4 is misleading”. That is self-evidently idiotic. You’ve only retreated into this nonsense because you belatedly realised that the hockey stick has *not* been invalidated by a large body of subsequent research. This matter of fact drives a truck through the rubbish about fraud and deception as you know perfectly well, hence your ludicrous guff about getting the right results with fraudulent methods. Which *still* doesn’t get you out of the hole you are in!

    If I were you, I’d stop pushing on that door.

    Just acknowledge and withdraw your false claims and leave it there.

  1099. #1100 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    And this is just fatuous:

    Btw, I don’t see anything in Mann’s CV indicating he is the paleoclimatologist.

    Mann has spent much of his professional career studying millennial climate and published repeatedly on the topic. Hence the domain expertise.

    Curry has *never* published on millennial climate and never studied it. Hence the absence of domain expertise.

    The desperation is showing with every comment.

  1100. #1101 RickA
    United States
    January 15, 2016

    Chris #1095 said “MIGHT not be unprecedented”.

    I will take that. This is real progress on your part Chris.

    So humans have caused some warming. Some people think we know exactly how much warming we have caused and some people think we don’t know exactly how much warming we have caused – but we all agree humans have caused some warming.

    That warming has pushed the climate to a spot it MIGHT have been 1000 years ago. The warming 1000 years ago MIGHT have been mostly caused by non-human forcing (natural causes).

    If we can all agree on that I will feel like I have accomplished something useful.

  1101. #1102 Desertphile
    January 15, 2016

    RickA: Chris #1095 said “MIGHT not be unprecedented”.

    I will take that. This is real progress on your part Chris.

    “Progress” by stating what all of the pro-science communicators have been saying for decades? How is that “progress?”

    All of the more than 36 “hockey sticks” might be wrong: no scientist and no science communicator ever said otherwise.

  1102. #1103 Marco
    January 15, 2016

    What you should say is that warming *likely* has pushed the climate *beyond* what is was for a very brief period 1000 years ago.

    And care to cite someone who says
    “we know exactly how much warming we have caused”?

    I can only find some relevant quotations if I change “exactly how much” to “the most likely range of”.

  1103. #1104 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    RickA

    What exactly is the point in you commenting at ATTPs if you ignore the responses?

    There are several things you have persistently ignored:

    – You can’t directly compare mid- high NH summer temps with modern global average temperatures

    – The *decade* of mid- high NH summer temps you are fixating on isn’t comparable to a century of modern *global* warming

    – Past climate variability indicates that the climate system is sensitive to radiative perturbation which means it will be sensitive to increased CO2 forcing

    – The causes of past climate variability are actually irrelevant to modern warming since modern warming is anthropogenic, not natural in origin.

    If you want to see the hockey stick behind the hockey stick, here it is. Note the right-hand vertical axis indicates forcing change in W/m^2.

    The climate system responds to net forcing change. Hence the blade of the hockey stick, from Mann to Wilson16. There is no evidence for any other major forcing change contributing to modern warming. Insisting that there is is *denial*, pure and simple.

  1104. #1105 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    Should be:

    – You can’t directly compare mid- high-latitude NH summer temps with modern global average annual temperatures

  1105. #1106 Bernard J.
    January 15, 2016

    Many of the new reconstructions use the same bum data as the old – upside down varves, in essence one tree from yamal and so on, and there are many criticisms of the new reconstructions also.

    This persistent claim about the so-called unreliability of proxy recontructions of the ‘hockey stick’ simply shows the insincerity of those making it. As many above have already countered, here and thousands of times in the past, there is a suite of proxies that do not use dendrochronology, and these proxies nevertheless show exactly the same result.

    Heck, I even linked to a post about Aono’s Kyoto cherry blossom festival data half way back up this thread. I have a particular fondness for this one, even though it is just a regional proxy, because the blossom burst is robustly and directly correlated to temperature (with no need for many intermediate interpolating steps), and the Kyoto record is exquisitely well documented for over a millennium.

    And guess what? It too describes a hockeystick.

    But, But, but, Dr. Curry is only a climate scientist, not a paleoclimatologist. Who cares if she is a tenured professor at well-respected technical university, frequently published, and has testified before congress. She don’t know nothing about Dr. Mann’s work.

    And, and, and, she said Dr. Mann’s work was “misleading,” not fraudulent, so there….

    She may be a climate scientist, but she does not have the expertise to mount a credible contradiction of paleoclimatology, any more than a GP can reattach a severed limb. And you’re correct in your comment, sarcasm aside: Curry effectively knows nothing, as Chris O’Neill’s link to the trouncing she received at RealClimate indicates. Indeed it seems that she was so badly wounded by that fisking that she created her blog about a month and a half later so that she would have her own soap box without the inconvenience of actual expert deconstruction of her obfuscations: her excursions into real scientific forums and discourse (including serious scientific authorship…) diminished greatly after that occasion.

    You can be as sarcastic as you please, but it doesn’t change the fact that in the arenas of human-caused climate change and paleoclimatology Curry is a minnow in a pond of climatological whales.

    If that’s how you select your “expert witnesses”, well, as so many of us have previously observed, it says more about the way that you conduct your cases than it does about the veracity of the material that you prosecute. And don’t go all look-how-big-my-willie-is again – it’s quite possible to be successful in court and clueless in fact. It’s one of the reasons why there are so many lawyer jokes, and so much contempt for some of its practitioners…

    in other words, a spine surgeon can offer opinions about pain management treatment, a cardiologist can offer testimony regarding the necessity of a proposed spine surgery, etc., and, yes, a physicist can offer testimony regarding climate change, as can a meteorologist, geologist, etc., etc….

    Great.

    And by your own logic many of us can offer thoughts and insights into the veracity and worth of expert witnessing in courts and senate committees, because we have postgraduate training in logic, epistemological philosophy, and science.

    Or perhaps people should really stick to what they know something about, and in the domain of science you have shown yourself (and admitted by your own words) to be ignorant of the field.

    I suppose at this point you will say that scientists shouldn’t offer legal opinions, but given that approximately 50% of defended court cases involve unsuccessful lawyers, there must be something awry with that profession in and of itself…

    Awkies.

    I don’t see anything in Mann’s CV indicating he is the [sic] paleoclimatologist. He is a professor of atmospheric sciences, which happens to be the same professorship Curry holds at Georgia Tech (meteorology).

    Really? Is this the extent to which you are able to ascertain actual expertise?! Looking in a CV so that you can compare job descriptions?!

    Just goes to show that a great deal of legal practise is as much about rhetoric as it is about objectivity or fact or truth.

  1106. #1107 Bernard J.
    January 15, 2016

    So humans have caused some warming.

    The net warming since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is effectively all a result of humans:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

    And point of fact, more than 100% of the warming is due to humans, but the negative forcing resulting from aerosols masks this.

  1107. #1108 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    I didn’t go through all the comments, but to address a few:

    It is still playing word games by suggesting that there is a difference between “fraud” and “dishonest.” They are synonyms. In fact, Steyn never used the word fraud.

    Dr. curry, whether of not she is a paleoclimatoligist (also, how does anyone here know what she has studied? Being published isn’t the standard for admission in court), she would be admitted as a climate expert in any jurisdiction in this country. And, while she didn’t say Mann committed academic fraud, she said he manipulated data and was deceptive (paraphrasing).

    Over course I am more thorough in court then on some silly internet blog. I am here because I find the issues interesting re: free speech (and how wussified our society has become, going from “I may disagree with what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it” to “lets sue every time our feelings are hurt” in the span of 1 or 2 generations. In court, clients are paying me. The fact that you can’t understand the difference between work activities and leisure activities suggest to me you have never been employed in the real world.

    Whoever said (Chris O’Neill?) that Mann only need to show damages is dead wrong. while he does have to prove damages, first he has to prove liability; i.e., Steyn intentionally said a false statement about him.

    Lastly, there is no legal authority that I know of which says Steyn’s comments were only reasonable if based on statements made be a scientist in a similar field. This whole conversation is moot.

    From a legal standpoint, Mann has a very weak case

  1108. #1109 Chris O'Neill
    January 15, 2016

    RickA:

    I will take that.

    So you admit you were wrong when you claimed MBH99 was contradicted. A small piece of progress.

    All you have to explain now is why it is not much cooler than it was 1,000 years ago when natural astronomical forcing was much stronger than it is now.

  1109. #1110 Chris O'Neill
    January 15, 2016

    Dan:

    while he does have to prove damages, first he has to prove liability

    That’s what damages YOU CAUSE means.

    Idiot.

  1110. #1111 Chris O'Neill
    January 15, 2016

    Dan:

    Over course I am more thorough in court then on some silly internet blog.

    OK, so you admit you make false claims on this “silly internet blog”.

    Admission accepted.

  1111. #1112 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Really, Chris? I admitted no such thing. I simply acknowledge that I don’t exert as much energy into research, postings, etc. If I do make a mistake, which I have acknowledged in the past, it is due to simple inadvertence.

    That is funny coming from you, Mr. “Mann only need prove damages guy,” as if this is some sort of strict liability claim (IIRC, Mann pled strict liability, but there is no way this case falls in that category. simple legal gamesmanship, in which plaintiff’s attorneys always over plead their case. To be fair, defendants over plead their affirmative defenses)

  1112. #1113 Brainstorms
    January 15, 2016

    Re-read Dan’s words…

    He is so deep into his fantasy of “whatever is admissible in a court of law” and “whatever winning strategies work in the legal/legislative arena” that he cannot see the hilarious insanity of his thinking that this also applies to the arena of science.

    Years of rhetoric sharpening and winning in court have caused brain damage and heightened arrogance to the point where Dan believes he can waltz into a scientific venue and use his “super’r rhet’ric” to bulldoze everyone else here and “write the laws” — the Laws of Nature.

    Dan: Get over yourself. You’re a nobody and you cannot command the wind to blow this way or that.

    Your courtroom successes of being able to dictate law and policy and procedure do not carry over to the laws of physics and the realm of science.

    That you continue to demonstrate that you believe you can do this, and that you think this is valid is hilarious!

  1113. #1114 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Chris, 1110: I really have no idea what that past means (note the irony of you calling me an idiot re: legal issues).

    Of course mann has to prove causation, that is standard in any civil lawsuit. But, that is a subcategory of damages, and nothing to do with liability.

    I will break it down for you: Mann must prove, first, that Steyn made a false comment; second, that Mann knew the comment was false when he made (which is the legal definition of malice in this context), and third, that Steyn’s knowing utterance of a false statement caused Mann some discernible damage (i.e., loss of grants, professional associations, professorships, etc). Of course Mann has to prove that the reason he lost the grant, or the association (or whatever damages he alleges) was caused by Steyn’s malicious false statement.

    Dude, is that complicated? I have posted links from libel law scholars who say the same thing.

    Idiot…

  1114. #1115 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Brainstorms: That’s cool if you think I am a nobody. My clients don’t, nor does my wife (I am even proud to include her picture in the links above).

    Glad to know job paying well over 6 figures and a smoking hot wife equals being a “nobody” in your book. Btw, if you are gonna call me a nobody, at least have the guts to post where you work, and info re: your personal life.

    I am proud to post info of mine…

    P.S. Of course my posts focus on legal aspects, as this column is about the, wait for it…..LEGAL CASE OF MANN V STEYN, ET. AL..

    geesh….

  1115. #1116 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Brainstorms: when did I ever claim my legal logic applies to the world of physics. There is a reason, in when representing cab and trucking companies, I hire medical experts to make the case to the jury re: injuries.

    As I have said, over and over and over again, legally, it makes no difference if Mann is right re: the hockey stick. It could be the greatest scientific theory since evolution, relativity or Sir Isaac Newton’s discovery gravity.

    The only relevant issue, re: Steyn’s liability, is if Steyn actually THOUGHT Mann manipulated data, not whether Mann ACTUALLY DID manipulate data (again, to quote Prof. Garber: “You can say almost anything you want about a public figure if you are dumb enough to believe it”)

    See the difference?

  1116. #1117 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    Dan

    Dr. curry, whether of not she is a paleoclimatoligist (also, how does anyone here know what she has studied?

    By checking her publication history, of course. No palaeoclimate papers in there, Dan. No relevant domain expertise on millennial climate reconstructions whatsoever.

  1117. #1118 dean
    United States
    January 15, 2016

    “Glad to know job paying well over 6 figures…”

    Even if true, how is that relevant to your repeated false statements here? Is it that you feel your income allows you to be a serial liar?

  1118. #1119 Brainstorms
    January 15, 2016

    Dan, if you’re such hot shit, then kneel down and admit your submission to the laws of physics.

    Tell us that you, like the rest of us, must respect and adhere to the laws of nature and that science is mankind’s endeavor to learn what those laws are.

    And that those laws are there to be discovered, but may not be litigated or rewritten to suit political desires. (Especially self-serving desires to evade personal financial displacement as a consequence of one’s participation in the profligate consumption of energy, when that energy use produces greenhouse gases.)

    Go ahead, hot shit lawyer Denier Dan…

  1119. #1120 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    I met a Traveler from an antique land,
    Who said, “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
    Stand in the desart. Near them, on the sand,
    Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
    And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
    Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
    Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
    The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    “My name is OZYMANDIAS, King of Kings.”
    Look on my works ye Mighty, and despair!
    No thing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that Colossal Wreck, boundless and bare,
    The lone and level sands stretch far away.

    – Shelley

  1120. #1121 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Brainstorms: Of course the laws of physics apply to me, like everyone else.

    The issue here is we are communicating on different pages. You are talking science; I am talking law. When did I ever say the laws of physics don’t apply?

    My statements in this thread have been limited to Mann’s case against Steyn, and Steyn’s potential liability. As a result, I have been focusing on if Steyn believed Mann manipulated data. If Mann cannot show that Steyn knew he did not manipulate data, but still made the accusation, Mann’s case will fail….

    Btw, when did I ever say I was hot shit? You called me a nobody. I responded by say, 1) it is lame to call someone else a nobody when you don’t have the guts to reveal info about you, 2) I don’t care if you think I am a nobody, because 3) my clients sure don’t think so, and, more importantly 4) my beautiful wife certainly doesn’t…

    I really don’t care if you think I am hot shit, a nobody, or anywhere in between….

    Sensitive much?

  1121. #1122 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Dean, 1118: See the post above. It most certainly is not relevant. It was a response to Brainstorms claiming I am a nobody, to which I responded his definition of “nobody” is peculiar, as most people would consider someone in their mid-thirties with over a dozen successful trial results, a solid income and a beautiful wife a nobody….

    But he is free to think what he wants, and take shots from the cheap seats…

  1122. #1123 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    BBD, 1117: How does Curry’s publication history show what she has studied? She can absolutely study a certain area of climate science, even if she hasn’t published in that area. Maybe she is in the process of conducting research now? Maybe she teaches a class that incorporates millennial temperature reconstructions.

    Again, this all started because you suggested that, unless Steyn can back his comments up with those of a climate science, his belief that Mann manipulated the data would not be reasonable.

    As I stated above, that is not the legal standard (i.e., steyn can reasonably believe Mann manipulated data even if no climate scientists thinks so, but point to climate scientists certainly helps). But, playing along with your little game, I gave you links to many articles by various scientists, including Dr. Curry, who state unequivocally Mann his a history of dishonesty, bullying those who disagree with him, manipulating data.

    I even referred to you to fellow IPCC colleagues who think Mann should be removed from same because of his dishonesty (i.e., manipulation of data, which said scientist thinks the CRU emails shows)

    I know you have difficulty with reading comprehension, and can’t understand that “fraud,” “dishonesty,” “manipulation” mean the same thing.

    Hopefully you will learn what a synonym is one day….

    Btw, just because you don’t agree with me doesn’t mean I am lying. Doesn’t mean you are lying, either. It just means we have a difference of opinion on what these various professional scientists said about Mann.

    I have noticed that you Mann-boys really are sensitive and take things personally…..relax, for goodness sake

  1123. #1124 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 15, 2016

    Btw, I still can’t get over Chris post in #1110, saying that “liability” in a legal sense means “showing damages you cause.” SMH…any first year law student will tell you liability absolutely does not mean that, and has nothing to do with causation or damages.

    Liability asks the simply question of whether one negligently injured another. Plaintiff must then prove the damages incurred as a result, including the fact that the defendant’s breach of duty (i.e., negligence) did proximately and legally cause the alleged injuries.

    A perfect example. I currently am representing a cab company in which its driver rear-ended another vehicle. Two days later, the driver of the adverse vehicle suffered a stroke, and alleges the rear-end accident with the taxi caused it.

    In this case, we have admitted fault (liability) because it is a rear-end accident. It is also clear plaintiff had damages after the fact in the stroke. The contested issue the cause of Plaintiff’s damages (stroke). Our position is that Plaintiff’s stroke was the result of years of smoking, obesity and high-blood pressure. Plaintiff of course disagrees..

    See the difference between liability and damages, and how causation is a subset of damages?

  1124. #1125 BBD
    January 15, 2016

    Dan

    BBD, 1117: How does Curry’s publication history show what she has studied?

    Reason from inference.

    Maybe she is in the process of conducting research now?

    This would not change the fact that she lacked domain expertise at the time she made unsubstantiated and confused remarks about Mann’s work.

    Maybe she teaches a class that incorporates millennial temperature reconstructions.

    That would not require domain expertise, which only comes from sustained professional focus on a particular field, and publication on same.

    I know you have difficulty with reading comprehension, and can’t understand that “fraud,” “dishonesty,” “manipulation” mean the same thing.

    None of these things has been demonstrated to apply to Mann’s work, which has not been overturned by any subsequent study. Again, reason from inference. The animus against Mann is not based on an evidentially-supported position. The opposite, in fact.

    Btw, just because you don’t agree with me doesn’t mean I am lying.

    Your serial refusal to admit that you are making false claims when confronted with these facts does suggest dishonesty. The charitable alternative is that you aren’t very clever. I opted for that interpretation first, of course.

  1125. #1126 dean
    United States
    January 15, 2016

    I am a nobody, to which I responded his definition of “nobody” is peculiar, as most people would consider someone in their mid-thirties with over a dozen successful trial results, a solid income and a beautiful wife a nobody….

    Children judge the worth of others from their income and family appearance. That sums up the level of appropriateness of your comments.

  1126. #1127 dean
    January 15, 2016

    (Still longing for a preview button)

    The reason you aren’t taken seriously here Dan is that despite not knowing anything about science you
    a) repeatedly claim things which have been demonstrated to be false
    b) claim that the references you cite say one thing when, in fact, they say contradict your assertions
    c) steadfastly refuse to make any effort to educate yourself

    Failing at those three items provides far more reason for assessing than your claims about your personal life

  1127. #1128 Brainstorms
    January 15, 2016

    steadfastly refuse to make any effort to educate yourself

    …because Dan knows that if he does allow himself that “education”, he will be backed into a corner and have to repudiate his agenda to discredit science as a means of derailing AGW mitigation.

    You picked the wrong vehicle, Dan-o…

  1128. #1129 Bernard J.
    January 15, 2016

    The only relevant issue, re: Steyn’s liability, is if Steyn actually THOUGHT Mann manipulated data, not whether Mann ACTUALLY DID manipulate data

    There are a number of points germane to this that you seem to want to diminish in order to prosecute your own agenda.

    First, it is demonstrable that the science of the hockey stick has been repeatedly confirmed by trained, qualified, and expert professionals to the point of wide consensus, and that the only dispute of it comes from people with insufficient qualification and/or specific agendas opposed to the reduction of carbon emissions. Anyone who is in a position to know will confirm that Mann et al did not inappropriately manupulate data or commit any other type of scientific fraud. Your dismissal of these facts when they have been repeatedly presented to you, and Steyne’s dismissal, would appear to indicate an insufficient duty-of-care in understanding the background to the subject before making high-profile public pronouncements about Mann and his integrity.

    Second, even if Steyne “THOUGHT” that Mann had unprofessionally and fraudulently manipulated data, Steyne’s own high-profile and influential public reach would surely require that he conduct due diligence before exercising his right to free speech. By your own logic anyone writing for a media outlet or writing books could write the most abhorrent shit possible, pulled from their arses and calculated to destroy people, and the only defence they would need would be to admit that they imagined it was true and made no effort to confirm the validity of such. I suspect that a real, actual defamation lawyer might have a different idea of what constitutes free speech in light of due diligence, and if she is competent in her job she might also be able to successfully present such a balance of duty-of-care to a judge and jury.

    Mann’s own lawyers obviously think so, and I am sure that their reputations are at least as defensible as yours. Perhaps you should give them the professional courtesy of contacting them and pointing out their errors in points of law, just as Curry and Steyne seem to think that they need to point out similar “errors” concerning Mann’s work… If only they had exhibited professional courtesy though and done such by first conducting due scientific diligence, and using the scientific literature* to make their comments.

    And really, what has your wife’s appearance to do with anything in this discussion?! Not only is it another logical fallacy, it is disrespectful of her and her gender. Valuing women based on their looks is mediævally passé and smacks of misogyny…

    [*And no, Curry has not written anything in the scientific literature that defensibly counters any of Mann’s work, or indeed any of the consensus material about human-caused climate change. Her AGW stuff is mostly opinion or rebutted, trivial repetition of her own misunderstandings about a discipline in which she is, at best, tangentially experienced. Disagree? Then pick Curry’s best critique of the mainstream and we’ll work from there…]

  1129. #1130 Bernard J.
    January 15, 2016

    Steyne and his supporters say this case is about free speech, and Mann and his councel say that it’s about defamation. Perhaps an analogy might help.

    In the USA citizens have a right (whatever the merits or otherwise of the anachronistic ammendment) to bear arms. It could be equated to the right to free speech. However, when one has an urge to fire one’s firearms, one has the responsibility to ensure that there’s not another person at the end of one’s projectile’s trajectory – failure to ensure this results in charges or manslaughter or murder. Similarly, when one chooses to exercise one’s right to free speech, one surely has a responsibility to ensure that one’s execution of this right does not infringe on another’s right to protection from libel or defamation.

    Steyne (and many others…) shoot off their mouths without checking that facts or reputations are not going to be consequent victims. This is not much different to shooting a gun in the air over a crowd, and protesting that one didn’t know that the bullets would land and injure or kill someone.

    I’m sure that Mann’s legal team would be happy to acknowledge Steyne’s right to speak freely. They will simply point out that he has an a priori responsibility and a duty-of-care, especially given his public influence, to speak truly when he speaks about other people’s integrity.

  1130. #1131 Marco
    January 16, 2016

    “If I do make a mistake, which I have acknowledged in the past, it is due to simple inadvertence.”

    And yet you doubled down when several of us pointed out you misrepresented your sources, and still have not acknowledged you did. In fact, you doubled down on your doubling down:
    “I even referred to you to fellow IPCC colleagues who think Mann should be removed from same because of his dishonesty (i.e., manipulation of data, which said scientist thinks the CRU emails shows)”

  1131. #1132 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    Dan:

    did proximately and legally cause the alleged injuries

    I’ll make it simple for you.

    while he does have to prove damages, first he has to prove liability

    That’s what YOU CAUSE means.

  1132. #1133 Bernard J.
    January 16, 2016

    Damages.

    Heh, I was thinking about this about half an hour ago.

    Dan, RickA and the large corpus of other deniers are Mann’s proof of harm – they happily subscribe to the nonsense of the likes of Steyne and such, and take on board the memes of “fraudlulent” and “manipulation” and “dishonest”, when the world’s best professional scientists in the discipline all stand by Mann and his team and reiterate that Mann et al have done nothing wrong, and indeed that their analyses are correct.

    The existence of the “fraud” claims in the public domain comes from people such as Steyne. Many in the public have taken it to heart (posters on this thread included…) ergo Mann has suffered harm.

    Dan and RickA are self-refuting Exhibit As.

  1133. #1134 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    “Glad to know job paying well over 6 figures…”

    Even if true, how is that relevant to your repeated false statements here?

    I believe that’s known as “proof by having a large ego”.

  1134. #1135 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    Dan:

    I really have no idea

    At least you get that right.

    Whoever said (Chris O’Neill?) that Mann only need to show damages

    No-one said Mann only needs to show damages. He needs to show Steyn caused those damages.

    You really are a master of “inadvertent” errors, aren’t you Dan?

  1135. #1136 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    Dan:

    malice in this context

    No dude. Civil suing for damages does not generally require malice. That’s more of criminal issue.

  1136. #1137 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    Dan:

    I admitted no such thing

    This is what you admitted:

    BBD pointed out:

    The word ‘fraud’ appears eight times in your link. Not once is it uttered by a climate scientist.

    You continue to make false claims. Are you this sloppy in court?

    To which you responded:

    Over course I am more thorough in court then on some silly internet blog.

    which means you are thorough enough to avoid making false claims in court but not on some silly internet blog.

    QED.

    it is due to simple inadvertence

    OK. So you carelessly make false claims on this “silly little blog”.

    Admission accepted.

  1137. #1138 RickA
    United States
    January 16, 2016

    Chris #1136 said “No dude. Civil suing for damages does not generally require malice. That’s more of criminal issue.”

    No – actual malice is a defamation issue (when the case involves an allegation of defamation of a public figure).

    Defamation is a civil cause of action.

  1138. #1139 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    RickA: No – actual malice is a defamation issue

    But I’m not the one saying malice is necessary.

  1139. #1140 skeptictmac57
    January 16, 2016

    Bernard J #1133- That is an excellent observation!
    I have seen, and I am sure that surely everyone on this thread has seen many many examples of Mann being trashed and called a fraud, dishonest, criminal etc. . It is all over the internet despite thousands of defenses of him and his work by actual climate scientists, and no finding of any willful wrong doing by any court system.
    What is at play here, is the “Everybody knows” phenomena, whereby an assertion is made so long, so loud, repeated so often, that despite there being no substance to it, that it becomes ‘so apparently true’ to those who hear it, that they become careless and cocky about repeating it in a wider public forum.
    That is defamation in my book, and those who participate in it are asking for trouble, and actively causing trouble (harm) as well.

  1140. #1141 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    Dan, RickA and the large corpus of other deniers are Mann’s proof of harm

    Indeed Bernard, they are rather ironically demonstrating that they are NOT taking Steyn’s accusations of fraud as “rhetorical hyperbole”. Bang goes the defence of rhetorical hyperbole.

  1141. #1142 RickA
    United States
    January 16, 2016

    Bernard and Chris #1141:

    Interesting damages theory.

    Of course you don’t get to damages until liability is found.

    But even if what posters think is relevant evidence for a court proceeding – doesn’t the fact that many posters here dispute the accusation that the graph is fraudulent show lack of damage?

    If the evidence cuts both ways – Mann loses because he has the burden of proof.

  1142. #1143 Chris O'Neill
    January 16, 2016

    doesn’t the fact that many posters here dispute the accusation that the graph is fraudulent show lack of damage?

    Of course not. What a ludicrous suggestion. Just because not everyone is sucked in to a reckless disregard for the truth doesn’t mean it hasn’t caused ANY reputational damage.

    Of course you don’t get to damages until

    I’m talking about damage caused by the perpetrator, not “damages” that is the amount of money awarded by the court. Sometimes legal jargon has a somewhat different meaning from some of the common meanings.

  1143. #1144 Bernard J.
    January 16, 2016

    doesn’t the fact that many posters here dispute the accusation that the graph is fraudulent show lack of damage?

    Chris O’Neill has already said exactly what I was going to say, but it’s worth repeating it and to point out that you just engaged in another of your trademark logical fallacies.

    Your question implies that you would expect a plaintiff’s reputation to be universally damaged across a population of a society, or substantially so, when in fact the plaintiff’s population need only be harmed in a small portion of a population for consequent damage to occur. Even if the reputational harm was restricted to a few dozen people, it may be sufficient to prevent a promotion or the aquisition of a new job or the capacity to engage in business, or it may break a relationship, or it may cause the plaintiff to lose credibility in a policy situation.

    That Mann’s reputation is defended by many here, and that the accusations against him of fraud are challenged, does not mean that there was no damage to his reputation in the eyes of many others. As I pointed out you yourself, and most certainly the large pool of climate science deniers with whom you apparently share much sympathy, are proof that the false accusations of people like Steyne have harmed Mann’s reputation amongst many lay people.

    Not only this, though – the harm has occurred to the point that it has been used as a political tool to stymie policy change, so the damage from the defamation of Mann has in fact harmed other people as well, and indeed the planet. In terms of Mann’s professional duties in providing actionable scientific advice as required of him, and to the extent that claims of fraud have diminished his capacity to do so, his legal councel may want to consider this outcome in addition to the immediate harm to mann’s reputation.

    And in the future people may want to investigate Steyne’s culpability (and that of so many other obfuscators, misrepresenters and propagandists…) in delaying action that might otherwise have led to greater mitigation of human-caused climate change damage. In this Steyne moves across a number of national jurisdictions, so any looseness in the US system may be irrelevant in the face of the laws of other countries…

    Purely fanciful? Two words – “tobacco” and “asbestos”.

  1144. #1145 Brainstorms
    January 16, 2016

    #1144: I want to join the class-action lawsuit for damages that will be naming Steyn, Dan the Denier, RickA, and all the other science deniers who have been using publications such as this blog “as a political tool to stymie policy change” and are “culpable in delaying action that might otherwise have led to greater mitigation of human-caused climate change damage.”

  1145. #1146 Bernard J.
    January 16, 2016

    BTW, that was “…when in fact the plaintiff’s reputation need only be harmed in a small portion of a population…”

  1146. #1147 RickA
    United States
    January 17, 2016

    Brainstorms #1145:

    Bring it!

    I would be proud to defend my free speech rights against your allegations.

  1147. #1148 BBD
    January 17, 2016

    RickA

    Physics doesn’t care about free speech. Your children might care about physics when they grow up and realise just how bad things are going to get during their own lifetimes. It will be interesting to see how they react to your lifelong denialism then.

    You have some interesting discussions to look forward to.

  1148. #1149 RickA
    United States
    January 17, 2016

    Thank you for your concern about my relationship with my children. I appreciate that.

    Physics doesn’t try to collect money based on alleged damages created by words posted on websites. So I have no issue with physics.

    I personally love physics.

    As a electrical engineer I had to take a full year of physics classes, and loved it so much I took an extra quarter of physics as an elective.

    So I actually appreciate and respect physics quite a bit.

    Physics says that the radiative effect of doubling CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm is about 1.2C. I have no issue with that.

    It is the feedback amount which models predict which I take issue with. The models are overpredicting this amount. That is why the models are warmer than the observations.

    http://climateaudit.org/2016/01/05/update-of-model-observation-comparisons/

    What exactly am I denying again?

  1149. #1150 Desertphile
    January 17, 2016

    Ricka: Physics doesn’t try to collect money based on alleged damages created by words posted on websites. So I have no issue with physics.

    Er, no one ever claimed it does.

    I personally love physics.

    And yet you reject the laws of physics. Your “love” is like that of a violent man who beats his spouse.

  1150. #1151 BBD
    January 17, 2016

    We’ve been through this, RickA.

    If you use updated forcings and take the predominant ENSO state into account, the CMIP5 ensemble comes into good agreement with observations. Endlessly repeating faulty contrarian memes doesn’t advance the conversation, especially when they have already been dealt with.

    McI is also tricking you by using HadCRUT4, which is biased cool because of coverage issues – which you also know because I’ve already pointed it out to you.

    What exactly am I denying again?

    That there is in fact no evidence at all that climate sensitivity has been significantly over-estimated. The most likely value remains about 3C per doubling, and we are in a world of trouble.

  1151. #1152 BBD
    January 17, 2016

    So I actually appreciate and respect physics quite a bit.

    Then you should be a frightened man, but you aren’t, so either you don’t understand physics as well as you claim or you are in denial.

  1152. #1153 Brainstorms
    January 17, 2016

    RickA still thinks he can argue physics into conceding to his preferred outcome. As though laws of physics were as amenable as the laws of man.

    RickA, you really must learn the difference. As BBD tries to point out to you, “think of the children”. (To use an appropriate counter-meme.)

  1153. #1154 dean
    January 17, 2016

    Wow, RickA had approximately 1/3 of the physics career undergraduate physics minors take (whether they were the classes required for majors minors or the dumbed down classes some engineering schools offer in-house he doesn’t say).

    The fact that his “education” in physics didn’t prepare him for any more than solving some simple equations of motion apparently hasn’t sunk in, and he is unaware that physics can be much more complicated.

  1154. #1155 Christopher Winter
    January 17, 2016

    RickA: Of course you don’t get to damages until liability is found.

    What is your point here? Steyn made the statements denigrating Dr. Mann’s work (and the work of other scientists.) These statements were and are visible to the public online. Steyn can hardly argue that someone else is liable for making them.

    Now, as to the question of “rhetorical excess”, I think Steyn’s persistence in expressing these views blows any such claim he might make out of the water. One column, or a few, might be considered “rhetorical excess.” A long progression of similar columns strains this defense to the breaking point.

    Which lasted longer: Joe McCarthy’s period of claiming that (speaking figuratively) there were communists behind every tree in Washington, or Mark Steyn’s period of claiming that the work of Michael Mann and other climate scientists is deliberately incorrect?

  1155. #1156 BBD
    January 17, 2016

    Perhaps of a man who doesn’t take his wife seriously, which is invariably a mistake.

  1156. #1157 RickA
    United States
    January 17, 2016

    BBD #1150:

    When will observations allow you to know if your 3C value is correct or not?

    The year we hit 560 ppm?

    No – because the climate will not have reached equilibrium.

    When then?

    Answer me this – when will the climate ever reach equilibrium?

    How will you ever measure ECS?

    And when is the earliest that it could happen?

  1157. #1158 RickA
    January 17, 2016

    dean #1153:

    I never said I had a physics degree.

    I have had some physics.

    The amount necessary for an Electrical Engineering degree at the University of Minnesota (plus an elective physics course I took for fun).

    If you want me to admit that I do not have a physics degree, then I admit this.

    I will also admit I do not have a PhD in anything.

    I have a BSEE and a JD.

    I also do not do climate science.

    I am a layperson who thinks for himself and forms opinions.

    Everybody is entitled to do this – even non climate scientists.

    Everybody is also entitled to express their opinions – which I do on several climate blogs.

    If it wasn’t for me and a couple of others, this blog would be an echo chamber – which perhaps is your goal.

    I find your attacking of other people’s credentials quite amusing.

    Even palaeobotanists are entitled to have opinions on climate change – and that is ok.

    So to are engineers, chemists, and even non technical types.

    Do you think that only climate scientists get to vote or speak out on issues facing the USA or the world?

  1158. #1159 Brainstorms
    January 17, 2016

    Hey, RickA, When will observations allow you to know if the mushroom you just picked and ate is poisonous?

    “If I die from it.”

    Brilliant reasoning, RickA!

  1159. #1160 Desertphile
    freegoldmaps.com
    January 17, 2016

    Brainstorms: Hey, RickA, When will observations allow you to know if the mushroom you just picked and ate is poisonous?

    “If I die from it.”

    Brilliant reasoning, RickA!

    But only 99.54% of mushroom experts say it’s deadly poison: the jury is still out, therefore it’s safe to eat!

  1160. #1161 RickA
    January 17, 2016

    Christopher Winter #1154:

    My point is that some posters are counting their chickens before they are hatched.

    Mann has not won this lawsuit yet.

    There has been no finding of liability.

    There has been no finding of damage and damage is not even relevant to the court case without a finding of liability.

    So I find it amusing that some posters take this negative result and move on to posit class action lawsuits for money damages against people exercising their freedom of speech to post about this case and even (gasp) global warming.

    If you have read through any reasonable portion of this thread you know that all I am saying is that Mann has the burden of proof.

    Mann has to show that Steyn’s statement is not an opinion or he loses.

    Then Mann has to show that Steyn’s statement is false, or he loses.

    Then Mann has to show that Steyn made his statement with actual malice (because Mann is a public figure), or he loses.

    It has been and continues to be my opinion that Steyn is going to win this case and therefore that Mann is going to lose.

  1161. #1162 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    RickA:

    My point is that some posters are counting their chickens before they are hatched.

    Mann has not

    lost

    this lawsuit yet.

    Fixed it for you.

    Then Mann has to show that Steyn made his statement with actual malice (because Mann is a public figure)

    Reckless disregard for the truth such as we have seen from Steyn could either be or replace malice.

    It has been and continues to be my opinion that Steyn is going to win this case

    What was your point about some posters counting their chickens before they are hatched? Are you concerned about looking like a hypocrite? Apparently not.

  1162. #1163 dean
    United States
    January 17, 2016

    RickA, nobody here says now, or ever has said, you have no right to free speech.
    The points (some of them at least) are
    a) When you speak your opinions about what science says, then have it pointed out that your opinions are clearly wrong, continuing to state those opinions shows you aren’t interested in an honest discussion
    b) If you think the blog is an echo chamber simply because the people who post reject comments that are science based, you are wrong. The comments that are rejected are, like yours, the ones that have been shown to be false
    c) You are the one who claimed your credentials were somehow important to your stands
    d) Yes, a person with any background has the right to make comments on climate science and related issues. An honest person making comments will also take note of where he/she is wrong, and adjust comments after that. You have never shown any indication for doing this
    e) This

    Do you think that only climate scientists get to vote or speak out on issues facing the USA or the world?

    is only slightly more complicated. Everyone gets to vote (or should). If you mean present their own view of what the science says in an official way, in a journal, or in front of Congress, then the people who do so should be experts in the field, not people who have no experience whatsoever (specifically: thinking a person like Steyn has anything useful to add to this, or any complicated issue, is asinine).

    The pushback you’ve been getting is not because you’ve been speaking out – if merely posting “opinions” and “explanations” that are clearly wrong were the entire issue here, and if this were the echo chamber you believe it would be without your valiant efforts, if Greg operated this blog that way, he would have been you some time ago.
    The pushback you’ve been receiving is that despite your claims of neutrality and honesty, you’ve demonstrated neither.

  1163. #1164 Brainstorms
    January 17, 2016

    When will observations allow you to know if your 3C value is correct or not?

    The year we hit 560 ppm?

    Given the large number of human beings who will end up dying as a result of allowing CO2 levels to get that high…

    RickA gives new meaning the term, “being a fatalist”.

  1164. #1165 RickA
    United States
    January 17, 2016

    Dean #1161 said:

    “c) You are the one who claimed your credentials were somehow important to your stands”

    How did I do this?.

  1165. #1166 Brainstorms
    January 17, 2016

    Desertphile: But at least RickA will save money as he’s dying! (So he’ll be happy…)

  1166. #1167 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    Brainstorms: Desertphile: But at least RickA will save money as he’s dying! (So he’ll be happy…)

    Medi9aMatters posted a video on their Youtube channel that showed a politician named Rubio insisting the changing climate is not a problem “because we will all be dead long before then.” It was…. freaky.

  1167. #1168 Michael 2
    January 17, 2016

    “because it speaks to how anti-science forces can be allowed, or not allowed, to attack scientists.”

    I believe the attack originated with Michael Mann, a financially subsidized lawsuit at that. Mark Steyn is a journalist, more or less, and is entirely within his rights and duty as such to engage in political commentary. That’s no more attack than takes place thousands of times every day in every city that has journalists.

  1168. #1169 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2: Mark Steyn is a journalist, more or less, and is entirely within his rights and duty as such to engage in political commentary

    No one here disagrees with that; Dr. Mann does not disagree with that.

    The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?

  1169. #1170 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    Desertphile “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the *** *** *** was that not clear to you?”

    It might still be a problem but is not for you to decide. Truth is an absolute defense in the United States. Whether his claims are true is a thing the courts will eventually decide, perhaps in my lifetime.

    In the meantime journalists, and everyone else, has considerable liberty to say anything you like as your opinion on well-known personalities. i dare say inspection of your commentary, or that of our gracious host, would turn up some nice juicy bits of bile cast at people you don’t like. For what it’s worth you seem to have a gift with scatological language but I have a doubt it adds to the conversation.

  1170. #1171 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2Desertphile “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?”

    It might still be a problem but is not for you to decide.

    Hey, Idiot Child! You wrote:

    Michael 2: Mark Steyn is a journalist, more or less, and is entirely within his rights and duty as such to engage in political commentary

    No one here disagrees with that; Dr. Mann does not disagree with that.

    The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?

  1171. #1172 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    Desertphile repeats himself: “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the *** *** *** was that not clear to you?”

    I might as well repeat myself:

    It might still be a problem but is not for you to decide.

    Since you didn’t comprehend the first time, I will explain. Anything I write about you that is defamatory in the minds of a typical reader is by definition libel. Whether it is actionable (stands a reasonable chance of winning a lawsuit) is not for you to say. In the United States, truth is a perfect defense even where malice exists (so far as I know; I wasted some time today looking at various national laws since Steyn is Canadian).

    Consequently, it remains for a jury to decide if Steyn is guilty of libel.

    Now let us consider your words. Asserting that Mark Steyn is guilty of libel, or has commited libel, is itself libelous.

    But, once again, whether it is actionable depends on the outcome of a trial that is not concluded. Should it happen that Mark Steyn prevails then suddenly he is not guilty of libel and everyone accusing him of libel has themselves commited libel, or so it seems to me.

    It would be better therefore to let this play out in the court of law rather than the court of public opinion.

  1172. #1173 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2: Desertphile repeats himself: “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?”

    I might as well repeat myself:

    Make a fool of yourself over and over and over again is not a virtue.

    No one here disagrees that a journalist is entirely within his rights and duty as such to engage in political commentary; Dr. Mann does not disagree with that. The problem is defamation, libel, and slander, Genius. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?

  1173. #1174 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    Desertphile repeats (3): “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander, Genius. How the *** *** *** was that not clear to you?”

    “Make a fool of yourself over and over and over again is not a virtue.”

    That’s pretty good 😉

    Virtue is not a proper topic on a science blog. Quite frankly neither is arguing about libel but here it is.

  1174. #1175 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2: Desertphile repeats (3): “The problem is defamation, libel, and slander, Genius. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?” “Make a fool of yourself over and over and over again is not a virtue.”

    That’s pretty good 😉

    Write it down, next to your computer. Refer to it often.

    No one here disagrees that a journalist is entirely within his rights and duty as such to engage in political commentary; Dr. Mann does not disagree with that. The problem is defamation, libel, and slander, Genius. How the bloody anal fuck was that not clear to you?

  1175. #1176 Michael 2
    January 17, 2016

    Dean wrote “b) If you think the blog is an echo chamber simply because the people who post reject comments that are science based, you are wrong. The comments that are rejected are, like yours, the ones that have been shown to be false”

    Circular argument. All blogs are echo chambers to varying degree and “false” is at the sole discretion of the blog owner. Most leftwing blogs seem to be more purified but I believe that relates to the purpose of a leftwing blog as a tool of social norming rather than a forum for discussion which would necessarily invite contrary points of view as otherwise it isn’t really a discussion. Just preaching to the choir.

  1176. #1177 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Journalists don’t make a career of attacking people (unless they work for trashy fiction-mongering tabloids that no one takes seriously).

    Real journalists don’t go around accusing researchers of fraud — unless they have the evidence to back it up. Journalists worry about this thing called libel.

    The attack originated with, and has been continued by, Steyn. Who is a political crusader, and is not a journalist.

  1177. #1178 Michael 2
    January 21, 2016

    Brainstorms “Real journalists don’t go around…”

    Ah so, the No True Journalist fallacy!

    But I sort of agree with you. Opinion commentators, pundits, “shock jocks”, that sort of thing is perhaps more to what you are describing as not in the job description of a True Journalist.

    Not that it makes much difference. A well known example of the genre would be Howard Stern. He still gets First Amendment rights and as a political commenter even more perhaps than a True Journalist. Common Taters do not have a duty to truth; for they are political. Political speech is the most protected of all speech. Burn the American Flag — it’s okay provided you are making a political point.

  1178. #1179 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Circular argument. All blogs are echo chambers to varying degree and “false” is at the sole discretion of the blog owner.

    Fallacy. Science is not subject to being defined by or changed by any one group’s political leanings or ability to out-argue the “other side” simply on the basis of how they want the results to turn out.

    A blog may or may not be an echo chamber, but scientific facts stand regardless of –and in some cases in spite of– whatever the prevailing leanings of any blog that may be discussing it. Scientific facts are not established “at the sole discretion of the blog owner”, as you seem to believe.

    You have fallen down the rat hole of believing that natural laws are just as malleable as the laws laid down and revised by man in legislative chambers and courtrooms. The area of Science does not work that way.

    No circular argument on the part of Dean. And your attempt to label it such is pretty lame. Sharpen your pencil and try again, Michael 2…

  1179. #1180 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    Brainstorms wrote “Sharpen your pencil and try again, Michael 2”

    Just remember that you asked for it.

    “Science is not subject to being defined by or changed by any one group’s political leanings or ability to out-argue the other side simply on the basis of how they want the results to turn out.”

    On the contrary. It isn’t science until it is known; and it isn’t known until it is published, and it isn’t published until a human person decides to publish it or decides NOT to publish it. That decision is biased.

    “scientific facts stand regardless of –and in some cases in spite of– whatever the prevailing leanings of any blog that may be discussing it”

    Trivial. Facts are what exists. Your ability to describe what exists on your blog are at issue. What you choose to write about are at issue and will most definitely reflect your leanings.

    I’m not sure what you mean by scientific fact. As scientists are still refining exactly what is a kilogram perhaps there is no “fact” to 19 decimal places as to what is a kilogram. So for practical purposes, a scientific fact is something that the majority of scientists agree upon.

    “Scientific facts are not established at the sole discretion of the blog owner, as you seem to believe.”

    Sure they are. How many facts have you personally ascertained as compared to how many you glean from a blog, this one or SkS?

    “You have fallen down the rat hole of believing that natural laws are just as malleable as the laws laid down and revised by man in legislative chambers and courtrooms.”

    That didn’t quite make sense but I gather you mean that even though scientists may argue the precise value of “G” that whatever it is cannot be changed at the whim of a politician or blogger. I have not argued that such a thing is possible.

    On the other hand, if DailyKOS asserts that G is 8.812 meters per second squared, how many of its readers do you imagine will accept that value as a scientific fact? Just make sure it has three or more decimal places and looks “prime”. Hmm, I’d better make that an odd number!

  1180. #1181 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    RickA:

    It is the feedback amount which

    the laws of physics

    predict which I take issue with.

    Fixed it for you.

    These climate science denialists endlessly remind us that most global warming is caused by water vapor, which physically cannot get up there without some warmth to begin with, and is thus a feedback but then immediately deny water vapour feedback.

    Masters of having it both ways.

  1181. #1182 Bernard J.
    January 18, 2016

    Physics says that the radiative effect of doubling CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm is about 1.2C. I have no issue with that.

    Let’s stop here for a moment.

    You are cherry picking the transient value for climate sensitivity, which is ecologically irrelevant to the whole issue.

    The change in CO2 concentration to date, from 280 to 400 ppm, has already seen a little over 1 °C warming. So, given that equilibrium climate sensitivity requires decades extra to realise, do you think that the ecologically relevantwarming to date is more consistent with your focus on the TCS of 1.2 °C, or the professionally-determined and ecologically-relevant ECS value of 3.0 °C?

    It is the feedback amount which models predict which I take issue with. The models are overpredicting this amount.

    What is your issue exactly? And what is your evidence that the physical understanding is “overpredicting”?

  1182. #1183 RickA
    United States
    January 18, 2016

    Bernard #1172:

    The 1.2C is the no feedback response to a doubling of CO2. This is ECS not TCS. The science of doom uses 1C for the no feedback response, so I was actually using a higher value than some.

    http://scienceofdoom.com/2011/09/22/measuring-climate-sensitivity-part-one/

    “If the average surface temperature of the earth increased by 1°C and the radiation to space consequently increased by 3.3 W/m², this would be approximately “zero feedback”.”

    When estimated feedbacks are added in, you get 3C – so the feedbacks add 2C to the 1C of the no feedback response.

    I do not disagree with the no feedback response – which is based on physics. It is the added feedback response portion which is a bit more voodoo which I do not find support for in the observational record.

  1183. #1184 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    RickA

    When will observations allow you to know if your 3C value is correct or not?

    The year we hit 560 ppm?

    No – because the climate will not have reached equilibrium.

    We’ve been through this. Can you not do better than cycling endlessly through your own backlog of debunked arguments?

    ECS is a formalism. A model metric. It is a tool for understanding the climate system response to a change in forcing. It allows us to understand that doubling CO2 will produce a large, rapid warming which is very likely to have severe impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, global agriculture and food security, and eventually, global sea levels.

    Answer me this – when will the climate ever reach equilibrium?

    ECS is a formalism. Nobody’s arguing that there is a point at which it could be definatively quantified. You are very obviously creating a diversionary argument. The point about ECS is that it allows us to see that there is a very serious problem in the making.

    And when is the earliest that it could happen?

    The PETM is a good example of a GHG-forced hyperthermal, so let’s say 55 million years ago.

  1184. #1185 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    I do not disagree with the no feedback response – which is based on physics. It is the added feedback response portion which is a bit more voodoo which I do not find support for in the observational record.

    Rubbish. The WV feedback response is physics to the core and the observational record in no way casts doubt on it.

    Why don’t you think about what Bernard just said?

    The change in CO2 concentration to date, from 280 to 400 ppm, has already seen a little over 1 °C warming.

    That’s positive feedbacks at work. There’s no way we could be looking at a no-feedbacks or low-feedbacks value at this point. Do think, Rick.

  1185. #1186 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    Sodding html:

    The change in CO2 concentration to date, from 280 to 400 ppm, has already seen a little over 1 °C warming.

    That’s positive feedbacks at work. There’s no way we could be looking at a no-feedbacks or low-feedbacks value at this point. Do think, Rick.

  1186. #1187 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Rubio insisting the changing climate is not a problem “because we will all be dead long before then.”

    Craven. Absolute depravity.

    Typical of a mindless, immoral right-winger…

  1187. #1188 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Sodding html indeed:

    Rubio insisting the changing climate is not a problem “because we will all be dead long before then.”

    Craven. Absolute depravity.

    Typical of a mindless, immoral right-winger…

  1188. #1189 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Next, Rubio will suggest the Republican Party throw a party…

    …dancing upon the graves of the future dead.

    And this little boy wants to be president when he grows up. If he grows up…

  1189. #1190 RickA
    United States
    January 18, 2016

    BBD #1175:

    You said “Rubbish. The WV feedback response is physics to the core and the observational record in no way casts doubt on it.”

    I disagree.

    If the feedback portion was pure physics we wouldn’t need parameterizations in the model. They use these parameterizations for clouds (for example). Why – because we don’t actually understand the physics and substitute estimates instead.

    I am not saying we will see a no-feedback response – just that I don’t see a 2C feedback response.

    Why – because the observational constrained data show an ECS of 1.66C.

    See https://niclewis.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/implications-of-recent-multimodel-attribution-studies_lewis_accepted_reformatted_climate-dynamics_2015.pdf

    1.66 C – 1 C (for the no feedback response) shows .66C of feedback response, based on observations (with the 1C no-feedback subtracted out).

    The only way to find out whether ECS will turn out to be 1.66C or 3C is to wait and see (and I am not even sure how to do that – since you indicate ECS is a mere formalism).

    Since is based on making predictions which can be tested.

    How does one test a formalism?

  1190. #1191 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    I disagree.

    If the feedback portion was pure physics we wouldn’t need parameterizations in the model. They use these parameterizations for clouds (for example). Why – because we don’t actually understand the physics and substitute estimates instead.

    Muddling up clouds with atmospheric water vapour, Rick. Clouds are only an itty little bit of total atmospheric WV.

    I am not saying we will see a no-feedback response – just that I don’t see a 2C feedback response.

    And your research is published where? Look, nobody cares what you think because it’s scientifically weightless. You are just saying stuff. What’s worse, you haven’t really got the first idea what you are talking about.

    Lewis gets his results by applying statistical methods to the data while ignoring the physics. When I asked him to explain why his results were incompatible with palaeoclimate behaviour, he was unable to respond. Consequently, no confidence in NL, which brings us back to the mainstream, where ECS is about 3C per doubling, which *is* compatible with palaeoclimate behaviour.

    You have one obviously problematic study by a known contrarian activist. It’s not even close to good enough.

  1191. #1192 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    280ppm -> 400ppm = 120ppm = 1C transient response

    How can the equilibrium response possibly be as low as 1.66C per *doubling*? I have no idea why NL is taken seriously any more.

  1192. #1193 Desertphile
    January 18, 2016

    BBD: 280ppm -> 400ppm = 120ppm = 1C transient response. How can the equilibrium response possibly be as low as 1.66C per *doubling*?

    Well gosh, someone who rejects the laws of physics cannot be expected to add and subtract numbers.

    If it was only a matter of CO2, the world’s climatologists would not agree that climate sensitivity is from 2.8c to 3.2c — they would agree it’s closer to 1.3c

  1193. #1194 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    [RickA,] You are just saying stuff. What’s worse, you haven’t really got the first idea what you are talking about.

    On the contrary, BBD, he does have a very good idea of what he’s talking about. Good enough to know how to carefully frame his blather into pointed attacks designed to systematically discredit climate science.

    RickA is not some clueless innocent, incapable of understanding this or just re-running tapes of B.S. over & over again because he’s a mental midget. He’s prosecuting an agenda. One as morally bankrupt as Rubio’s.

  1194. #1195 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    since you indicate ECS is a mere formalism

    I did not write or imply ‘mere’. Don’t misrepresent me in furtherance of you crap arguments, RickA.

    ECS is a formalism. That means it is defined in formal studies which investigate sensitivity. While it is not possible to derive an accurate value from ECS from the actual behaviour of the climate system, this is unimportant to the value of the ECS formalism as a tool for understanding the way the climate system will respond to an increase in CO2 forcing. For example, establishing that GAT will increase by about 3C per doubling is more than sufficient to inform public policy aimed at averting a very high risk of severe climate impacts.

  1195. #1196 RickA
    January 18, 2016

    BBD #1187:

    That would be ok if they had established GAT will increase by about 3C per doubling. That has not been established yet.

    Perhaps with another 30 years of data we will have a better handle on ECS.

    But lets face it – it has been 3C plus or minus 1.5C since 1991.

    And we are still not sure if it is 3C or 1.66C, or even how to measure it.

  1196. #1197 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    “The RickA Strategy for Climate Change Mitigation”:

    Step 1. Claim we either don’t know anything, or claim that we don’t know enough. Claim that models, etc. are insufficient.

    Step 2. Do nothing to mitigate, and allow greenhouse gases to accumulate in the atmosphere. Continue to claim science is insufficient as things deteriorate and that “we’ll know when we get there” is a prudent approach.

    Step 3. Enjoy the good life spending the “savings” from advocating a “do nothing until we know 100%” agenda that keeps befuddled policymakers paralyzed.

    Step 4. Allow damage to be done — failed economies, crop loss, extinct species, droughts, deaths, displacements, asset & real estate losses, flooding, etc.

    Step 5. When temperatures have actually doubled, damage is widespread and irrefutable, and it’s beyond too late to mitigate, give in and admit that science was correct all along.

    Step 6. Start a new campaign to demand that science find a way to turn back time and implement mitigation starting in the 20th Century, in order to avoid the destruction and economic losses that are now global in scope.

    Step 7. Blame science yet again for failing to violate the laws of physics ex post facto, just as RickA has been calling for violations of the laws of physics all along in arguing no need to mitigate in the first place.

    Step 8. Start denying that the world was ever any better than the ruined state he has helped it become…

  1197. #1198 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    Followup for Desertphile. Brandon accuses Cook of lying. While it is obviously a libel, it is not necessarily actionable, not for lack of trying of course.

    https://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/making-up/

    A somewhat similar lawsuit against Mother Jones:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/10/billionaire-sued-us-we-won-we-still-have-big-legal-bills-pay

    Mark Steyn will likely win but it will be expensive. The battle has become a proxy fight with people taking sides; fundraisers for both and some deep pockets at least on Michael Mann’s side.

    Journalists (and pundits) must be free to comment. That’s what they DO. http://www.rockethub.com/projects/6884-help-cover-mike-mann-s-legal-bills

    “CSLDF helped Dr. Mann raise over $100,000 to pay for his legal bills.” climatesciencedefensefund.org/about/dr-manns-foia-litigation-and-csldf-involvement/

    I expected this source to actually describe an “attack” on a scientist; any scientist! But apparently none have been made. Just a couple of FOIA requests that ought to have been immediately complied with as the law specifies. climatesciencedefensefund.org/about/attacks-on-scientists/

  1198. #1199 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    RickA

    That would be ok if they had established GAT will increase by about 3C per doubling. That has not been established yet.

    Yes, it has. It is common practice for fake sceptics to pretend that probability distribution is equal throughout the range, but it is not. The most likely values cluster around 3C per doubling.

    Perhaps with another 30 years of data we will have a better handle on ECS.

    We already know enough. Advocating delay on the grounds of uncertainty is an invalid argument.

    But lets face it – it has been 3C plus or minus 1.5C since 1991.

    Since 1979, actually. Charney Report.

    And we are still not sure if it is 3C or 1.66C, or even how to measure it.

    It is very unlikely to be 1.6C as this is incompatible with palaeoclimate behaviour. It is most likely to be around 3C as this is where there is a consilience of evidence.

    or even how to measure it.

    You keep pushing this feeble misrepresentation as if it were a point. It isn’t.

    Here is a point about measurement and constraining ECS:

    280ppm -> 400ppm = 120ppm = 1C *transient* response

    Lewis is obviously wrong, along with all the other lukewarmer peddlers of dubious methodology.

  1199. #1200 RickA
    January 18, 2016

    Brainstorms #1189:

    You live in a fantasy world.

    I have already proposed spending money to solve the “problem”.

    You just don’t like my solution.

    And thats ok.

    I propose a no regrets action, that will cost a little more than replacing coal (and natural gas) power plants with the same, by replacing with nuclear power plants – and I am ok with that incremental increase in expense.

    If you are right – my solution solves the problem. So why not try it?

    If I am right – we won’t waste trillions and kill millions of poor people, by unnecessarily making everything on the planet more expensive – and we still cut down on CO2 emissions.

    James Hansen is pro-nuclear.

    I don’t know why everybody isn’t getting on board.

    But instead of trying to solve the problem in the least expensive way – you want everybody to agree with you that the sky is falling and spend lots of unnecessary money on mitigating things which don’t need to be mitigated.

    I am sure over time, nuclear will come to be more and more central – because it can provide all the power we need, without emitting CO2. Plus it doesn’t take much space, eliminates all the health problems of coal particulate and shipping coal and mining coal.

    What is your plan?

  1200. #1201 RickA
    January 18, 2016

    BBD #1191:

    You said “280ppm -> 400ppm = 120ppm = 1C *transient* response”

    I think you are incorrect about transient response.

    Go look it up and I think you will see it is defined differently than you seem to think.

    What you are showing is (I believe) the instantaneous response (using GISS data).

    TCR (transient climate response) is defined:

    “The transient climate response, or TCR, is traditionally defined in terms of a particular calculation with a climate model: starting in equilibrium, increase CO_2 at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled (about 70 years). The amount of warming around the time of doubling is referred to as the TCR. ”

    Here is a citation to my source:

    http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog/isaac-held/2011/03/11/3-transient-vs-equilibrium-climate-responses/

    So it is the measure of GAT at doubling of CO2 – without waiting around for equilibrium.

    We will actually be able to measure TCR when we hit 560 ppm (if we hit 560 ppm). So I like TCR much better than ECS, because we cannot really measure ECS – but we can measure TCR.

  1201. #1202 RickA
    January 18, 2016

    The difference between me and you guys is that I want to actually do the experiment and measure TCR.

    You guys are guessing on what the result of the experiment will be and want public policy to be based on your guesses – without actually doing the experiment to see if your guess is right.

    That is of course, my personal opinion.

  1202. #1203 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    we won’t waste trillions and kill millions of poor people, by unnecessarily making everything on the planet more expensive

    What are you talking about? This sounds like a fantasy world to me.

  1203. #1204 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    Formally, you are correct about TCR. However *any* response measured during a period of sustained increase in forcing is, by definition, transient not equilibriated. Now, I wrote ‘transient’ *not* TCR (which would technically have been incorrect). Your nitpick fails. Please don’t do this again.

    You guys are guessing on what the result of the experiment will be and want public policy to be based on your guesses – without actually doing the experiment to see if your guess is right.

    This was a falsehood the last time you said it. Scientific estimates are not ‘guesses’. Stop the serial misrepresentation. It is actively dishonest.

  1204. #1205 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    RickA

    You don’t seem to understand that even if we stabilised CO2 at 560ppm on the day we measured TCR the warming would continue for decades until (quasi) equilibrium is reached.

    We would be absolutely committed to much more warming than indicated by the TCR. That’s what *transient* means.

    We cannot afford to sit on our collective arse and wait until we get to 560ppm and confirm that yes, based on TCR, ECS is going to be about 3C.

  1205. #1206 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    RickA: You live in a fantasy world.

    If you consider a world grounded in physics, mathematics, chemistry, etc. to be “fantasy” (and you do seem to think that way), then yes.

    From the perspective of one who lives in a world grounded in physics, mathematics, chemistry, etc., your worldview is considered “fantasy”. I’m not alone in this opinion.

    You just don’t like my solution.

    Never addressed that. What I don’t like is your attempts to discredit science.

    I don’t know why everybody isn’t getting on board.

    We wonder the same thing regarding climate science. Especially as regards you, RickA.

    But instead of trying to solve the problem in the least expensive way

    Care to demonstrate any truth to that assertion?

    – you want everybody to agree with you that the sky is falling

    I never claimed that the sky is falling…

    and spend lots of unnecessary money on mitigating things which don’t need to be mitigated.

    You’re clearly, firmly wrong about that.

    What is your plan?

    Why are you changing the subject? If you deny that science is correctly qualifying and quantifying the problem, then how can you assert that a plan is needed and ask for its details?

    Is it your wish to shoot them down as you do climate science, or you’re just seeking yet another strategy for muddying the real issues being discussed here?

    On top of that, you imply that I am educated and experienced in making such “plans” (whatever they are) — I am not.

    Back to the subject at hand: Climate Science adequately informs us that we must take steps to mitigate the effects of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, including giving up fossil fuels.

    You said: I have already proposed spending money to solve the “problem”.

    Which is an admission that there is a problem. Thank you. That took entirely too long.

    Now, why do you continue to fight against climate science (while unarmed, I might add)? Shouldn’t you instead be arguing the panoply of policies and regulations and expenditures needed to solve this “problem” you’ve acknowledged?

  1206. #1207 RickA
    United States
    January 18, 2016

    Desertphile #1198:

    You said “Well gosh, someone who rejects the laws of physics cannot be expected to add and subtract numbers.”

    But I don’t reject the laws of physics.

    The IPCC says ECS will fall within the range of 1.5C to 4.5C.

    NL’s estimate of 1.66C is within the IPCC range and therefore does not violate physics.

    BBD likes to rely on the median 3C number – but the data show we are probably going to hit below that.

  1207. #1208 RickA
    January 18, 2016

    BBD #1197 said “We cannot afford to sit on our collective arse and wait until we get to 560ppm and confirm that yes, based on TCR, ECS is going to be about 3C.”

    Well – what do you want to do about it?

  1208. #1209 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    BBD likes to rely on the median 3C number – but the data show we are probably going to hit below that.

    No, they really don’t. If you persist in this behaviour, I am going to call you a liar.

  1209. #1210 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    Well – what do you want to do about it?

    I’d like to see an abrupt, permanent end to politicised denial.

    Then, serious mitigation. Large-scale build-out of low-carbon technology including solar, wind and nuclear, geothermal and tidal. Electrification of personal transport and large-scale energy efficiency and demand-side regulation. You won’t like the last bit because it basically means not allowing people to piss away energy as if there was no tomorrow.

  1210. #1211 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    BBD wrote: “I’d like to see an abrupt, permanent end to politicised denial.”

    Whereas I’d like to see an abrupt, permanent end to politicized warmism (and a great many other politics).

    “Then, serious mitigation.”

    Scary, but going to be necessary eventually even without the warmist religion.

    “Large-scale build-out of low-carbon technology including solar, wind and nuclear, geothermal and tidal.”

    I agree with this but not for your stated reasons.

    “Electrification of personal transport and large-scale energy efficiency and demand-side regulation.”

    You start out pretty good but end up in a socialist’s wet dream. It is not clear to me that a committee ought to decide when, where and how I use electricity. It didn’t work very well for the Soviets if I remember right.

    “You won’t like the last bit because it basically means not allowing people to piss away energy as if there was no tomorrow.”

    I dislike it for almost any reason BUT while not liking it I can sort of see that it may be necessary if not enough electricity is made to give to all demanders.

    ATTP seems to be malfunctioning so I’ll chat with you here for a bit.

  1211. #1212 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    NL’s estimate of 1.66C is within the IPCC range and therefore does not violate physics.

    Look, that’s NL’s central value and it’s unphysical – it is incompatible with palaeoclimate behaviour. But it’s the central value. Look at the lower bound of NL’s 5 – 95% confidence range: it’s 0.7C. That’s less than the no-feedbacks sensitivity. It’s not physically possible!

    If you can’t yet see what a crock NL is offering up here, then I despair.

  1212. #1213 BBD
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2

    Whereas I’d like to see an abrupt, permanent end to politicized warmism

    What are you talking about? The science is clear. No political affiliation is required to understand / accept the physics.

    even without the warmist religion.

    What rubbish is this? The science is clear – there is no more ‘religion’ involved than there is politics. Can you keep this clap-trap for WUWT please?

    You start out pretty good but end up in a socialist’s wet dream.

    There’s no socialism involved at all. You libertarian ideologues need to stop fantasising about reds under the bed.

    ATTP seems to be malfunctioning so I’ll chat with you here for a bit.

    You were placed in moderation for being tiresome. As ATTP has recently told you. What is it with you lot and the truth?

  1213. #1214 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    BBD “What are you talking about? The science is clear. No political affiliation is required to understand / accept the physics.”

    You were arguing for demand-side regulation of energy consumption. Where is the physics in that?

    I have a pretty good understanding of the physics, and gather more pretty much every day. Someday the science will actually be settled, and when it is, thousands of climate scientists will be out of work.

    Physics gets millions of dollars (*) while religion gets billions and politics gets trillions. Physics is almost irrelevant.

    * Except for the LHC. It got billions of Euros. Rather a lot of politics.

    “What rubbish is this? The science is clear – there is no more religion involved than there is politics.”

    Rather a lot of both, actually. COP21 wasn’t about science, it was mostly politics. It is followed by believers. It even has a priesthood and acolytes, 25,000 of them apparently.

    Science is gradually becoming clearer. In the meantime, all these explanations as to why satellite does not agree with thermometer suggests a lack of clarity.

    “Can you keep this clap-trap for WUWT please?”

    I recommend SkS as your go-to place for claptrap free, highly Purified global warming news. I was surprised to find you here, but then, you might be surprised to see me. After all, I am beginning to doubt the existence of more than 2 dozen people active on all climate blogs combined.

    “There’s no socialism involved at all.”

    COP21 is socialism writ large.

    “You libertarian ideologues need to stop fantasising about reds under the bed.”

    They are mostly (*) harmless when under the bed.

    * T.C. returning from Vietnam reported that the VC would sneak in at night and bayonet soldiers through the hammocks and thin mattresses. He woke himself up by the sound of his own rifle going off; even in his sleep he fired his rifle through his mattress and killed a VC under his bed. For the rest of his life he warned family and friends never to sneak up on him and I took it very seriously.

    “You were placed in moderation for being tiresome. As ATTP has recently told you.”

    Odd. I’ve never NOT been in moderation at ATTP. Your own commentary tends to be somewhat predictable as well and yet here you are.

    ATTP has not recently told me anything.

    I think it is just a blacklisted IP address; he’s probably using the Akismet WordPress plugin and I’m using a shared IP address at the apartment complex and it appears that the IP address has been blacklisted. It is causing some problems for tenants with Sony PS4’s. I don’t expect him to cease using Akismet and I don’t plan on changing IP address.

    But it could be part of a Purification Ritual.

    “What is it with you lot and the truth?”

    Libertarians do not come in lots, herds, hives or any other kind of aggregate or grouping.

    As to truth: It is a thing most precious and difficult to find yet almost impossible to give to someone else.

  1214. #1215 Desertphile
    January 19, 2016

    Michael 2: Someday the science will actually be settled, and when it is, thousands of climate scientists will be out of work.

    It’s a Poe, and I fell for it. Won’t happen again.

  1215. #1216 Brainstorms
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2, RickA, Dan the Denier, and their addlepated political associates are all members in spirit (if not kind) with the Indiana General Assembly of 1897.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

    These strange creatures are all deluded into thinking that the results of science, math, physics, etc. are all “up for a vote” and can decided by the winner of a political debate — just as the aforementioned GA decided to vote to change the value of Pi — to something “more convenient”.

    It is indeed a strange mental affliction. One hopes that someday medical science will find a treatment for this psychiatric derangement.

  1216. #1217 Michael 2
    January 18, 2016

    This is a good example of what I usually do NOT see at ATTP. The implication here is that Brainstorms believes you are all stupid, non-observant louts so he takes it upon himself to explain it to you 😉

    Brainstorms commented “These strange creatures are all deluded into thinking that the results of science, math, physics, etc. are all up for a vote and can decided by the winner of a political debate”

    Welcome to Democracy. Coming soon to a nation near you!

  1217. #1218 Desertphile
    January 19, 2016

    Brainstorms: It is indeed a strange mental affliction. One hopes that someday medical science will find a treatment for this psychiatric derangement.

    Marijuana (THC and CBD) mitigate fear responses; maybe deniers could try some of that.

  1218. #1219 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    Michael 2:

    On the other hand, if DailyKOS asserts that G is 8.812 meters per second squared, how many of its readers do you imagine will accept that value as a scientific fact?

    I can see that the straw man is your favourite type of argument.

  1219. #1220 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “I can see that the straw man is your favourite type of argument.”

    I consider the non-sequitur to be my favorite but I’m capable with strawman, red herring, fallacy of the false alternatives and many others. Nobody is Willard’s equal in that arena but I am at least an apprentice.

    In my opinion, almost everyone uses these techniques while not perhaps realizing they have been long identified and named.

  1220. #1221 dean
    January 18, 2016

    Just make sure it has three or more decimal places and looks “prime”. Hmm, I’d better make that an odd number!

    What you’re saying isn’t clear, but the rest of your posts make it very easy to believe you really think 8.812 could be prime, or odd – you seem to be that stupid.

  1221. #1222 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    dean “What you’re saying isn’t clear, but the rest of your posts make it very easy to believe you really think 8.812 could be prime, or odd – you seem to be that stupid.”

    It was a science test. You failed. G is generally expressed as 9.79 to 9.83 (it depends on where you are) meters per second per second (gravitational force of accelleration).

    A pedantic scientist would have immediately corrected the numbers recognizing that G is not 8.812.

    Prime and odd are not usually properties of a decimal fraction. So you passed the math part of this test. Congratulations.

  1222. #1223 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    RickA: “You live in a fantasy world.”

    RickA lives in a world where a > 0 means a < 0.5.

    I think I know who lives in a fantasy world.

  1223. #1224 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    RickA: “The difference between me and you guys is that I want to actually do the experiment and measure TCR.”

    Like saying “the difference between me and you guys is that I’m stupid enough to try dangerous experiments”.

  1224. #1225 Chris O'Neill
    January 18, 2016

    RickA: “So it is the measure of GAT at doubling of CO2 – without waiting around for equilibrium.”

    Reminds me of not waiting around for a bomb to go off, not that the GAT at 560ppm won’t be harmless.

  1225. #1226 BBD
    January 19, 2016

    M2

    You were arguing for demand-side regulation of energy consumption. Where is the physics in that?

    The radiative properties of CO2 have far-reaching consequences which even contrarians are going to have to face eventually.

    Rather a lot of both, actually. COP21 wasn’t about science

    Yes, it was. See ‘radiative properties of CO2’ above.

    Science is gradually becoming clearer. In the meantime, all these explanations as to why satellite does not agree with thermometer suggests a lack of clarity.

    The only lack of clarity is by contrarians, about the reliability of the satellite data. It’s just another talking point you lot have grubbed up in lieu of an actual scientific counter-argument to the basics of physical climatology.

    Odd. I’ve never NOT been in moderation at ATTP. […]

    ATTP has not recently told me anything.

    Yes, he has.

    I think it is just a blacklisted IP address

    Nobody gets put into *moderation* at ATTPs on a permanent basis for no reason.

    But it could be part of a Purification Ritual.

    Spout less about ‘warmist religion’ etc. and perhaps you will emerge from moderation in due course. In the meant time, behaving like a prat and then playing the victim when the people you irritate react is tedious. You lot do it all the time though.

    Libertarians do not come in lots, herds, hives or any other kind of aggregate or grouping.

    You are as alike as peas in a pod, including the delusion of uniqueness, arguably a defining characteristic.

  1226. #1227 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    BBD wrote “The radiative properties of CO2 have far-reaching consequences which even contrarians are going to have to face eventually.”

    Likely so, and even if not, running out of fuel is inevitable and if preparations were not made in advance, it will likely be too late to fix it.

    However, your excellent point doesn’t address your comment about demand side regulation of consumption, which is properly a comment about policy and politics.

    “Yes, he has.” [ATTP told me nothing]

    Thank you for the link. I hoped for, and counted on, your desire to correct me when I am wrong. Since WordPress has stopped offering notifications of commentary on ATTP (but not reliably; just most of the time) I was not subscribed to that page to see ATTP’s answer. Dozens of my comments, some of them favorable to ATTP, have simply vanished. I attribute this to Akismet’s plugin behavior rather than mere “moderation”.

    “Nobody gets put into *moderation* at ATTPs on a permanent basis for no reason.”

    WordPress has several options. ATTP might have a reason, might not, with regard to moderation and auto-moderation. It is his blog; he can use it any way he pleases.

    “Spout less about ‘warmist religion’ etc. and perhaps you will emerge from moderation in due course.”

    If I changed my IP address and cloned myself from you then yes, that would probably suffice.

    “You are as alike as peas in a pod, including the delusion of uniqueness, arguably a defining characteristic.”

    To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Your inability to discern differences between libertarians is an expression of your powers of observation rather than anything that actually exists.

    Libertarians come in almost every flavor. At its root it is very simple; I choose for me, you choose for you. It differs subtly from narcissism, where I choose for me AND I choose for you.

    Many nuances exist. Some of my choices for me will impact you to some degree, and your choices for you will impact me to some degree. Perfect liberty therefore is not the same as anarchy; it requires willing cooperation.

    Iceland’s socialism succeeds (to the extent that it does) because people choose its benefits and accept the costs. It is not an imposed socialism. As such it is both libertarian AND socialist; the most libertarian society I have ever experience and also the most socialist nation I have lived in.

  1227. #1228 Bernard J.
    January 19, 2016

    RickA says:

    The 1.2C is the no feedback response to a doubling of CO2. This is ECS not TCS. The science of doom uses 1C for the no feedback response, so I was actually using a higher value than some.

    Several things. First, I made the point that you are referring to transient climate sensitivity, when the parameter relevant to life on earth is equilibrium climate sensitivity. That is the parameter that by far determines life and death in this issue, and ignoring it and using TCS is a red herring. A logical fallacy. A trademark denialist gambit.

    And yet you completely ignore my point. One can only presume that you are not discussion this issue with sincerity.

    The second point has to do with the numerical values that you employ, and your ignoring of my point about realised warming to date…

    Why – because the observational constrained data show an ECS of 1.66C.

    Really…?

    The only way to find out whether ECS will turn out to be 1.66C or 3C is to wait and see…

    Oh, so you want to play chicken with the only known planet in the universe to support life?

    And

    Perhaps with another 30 years of data we will have a better handle on ECS.

    But lets face it – it has been 3C plus or minus 1.5C since 1991.

    And we are still not sure if it is 3C or 1.66C, or even how to measure it.

    Except we are.

    And then:

    I think you are incorrect about transient response.

    Not really, as you’re about to discover.

    And also:

    We will actually be able to measure TCR when we hit 560 ppm (if we hit 560 ppm). So I like TCR much better than ECS, because we cannot really measure ECS – but we can measure TCR.

    Oh, we know why you “like TCR” more than ECS…

    And:

    The IPCC says ECS will fall within the range of 1.5C to 4.5C.

    NL’s estimate of 1.66C is within the IPCC range and therefore does not violate physics.

    BBD likes to rely on the median 3C number – but the data show we are probably going to hit below that.

    The IPCC is correct. See below…

    And:

    The difference between me and you guys is that I want to actually do the experiment and measure TCR.

    which is more of the Russian roulette with six bullets in the chambers.

    Stop for a moment, RickA, and interogate the numbers that I presented to you earlier.

    We’ve increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from 280 ppm at the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution, to 400 ppm today. And according to Berkeley Earth we’ve warmed the planet by 1.2 °C in that time:

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/hottest-year-on-record/

    A simple fitting of a logarithmic curve to these data shows that the transient climate sensitivity given these numbers is 2.33 °C

    It’s true.

    Even a lawyer such as yourself should be able to work that out in about two or three minutes using basic algebra. To give you a leg up I’ll let you know that the independent variable ([CO2]) coefficient is 3.36 and the constant is -18.96, for a straightforward logarithmic fit, so you can check my working.

    Let me repeat that. Given the realised warming to date, and the temperature record most supported by the Denialati, the transient climate sensitivity is 2.33 °C. Even without any feedings back at all, this is still sufficient sensitivity to have serious repercussions for the planets biodiversity given humanity’s committment to fossil fuels for the forseeable future. Most especially when the best ecological advice is that the danger limit kicks in around 1.5 °C, which even the most conservative estimations of the relative relation of TCS:ECS would indicate is already locked in…

    And a TCS of 2.33 °C is very much in line with a conservative estimate of ECS of at least 3 °C, so the news is actually worse…

    So stop with your hack lawyering distractions and your fallacy-flapping RickA. The hard, real, incontrovertible numbers prove you wrong.

    You’re arguing from an indefensible position, and it is an indictment of your lack of understanding and/or scruples that you persist in pressing your case when it is patently apparent that you are speaking from your arse.

    Of course, if you disagree, explain why – with appropriate working.

  1228. #1229 Bernard J.
    January 19, 2016

    BTW RickA, I have a little bit of a hook in my previous comment. I’m hoping that you’ll snap at it, so that we can see where it leads…

  1229. #1230 BBD
    January 19, 2016

    M2

    However, your excellent point doesn’t address your comment about demand side regulation of consumption, which is properly a comment about policy and politics.

    It is a comment on the extreme unlikelihood – from an engineering perspective – of decarbonisation progressing fast enough to mitigate serious climate impacts unless there is demand-side regulation. Energy piggery like the current *average* USA consumption of 250kWh / person / day is almost certainly not going to be sustainable given the engineering constraints on the speed at which low carbon technologies can be deployed. This constraint is directly geared to the physics of progressive warming and committed warming in terms of the thermal inertia of the ocean.

    Stop trying to be cleverer than you actually are, M2. It never works.

  1230. #1231 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    BBD writes “Energy piggery like the current *average* USA consumption of 250kWh / person / day.”

    Holy smokes. I had no idea it was so high. My household consumes 12 KWh daily (electrc only; natural gas is also used 0.06 decatherms/day 1 decatherm = 293.001111 kilowatt hours so that’s 17 KWh equivalent) or 29 KWh per day total energy consumption and I would like it to be much lower.

    Anyway, that is why I reluctantly allow that at some point, some form of allocation is going to be inevitable. A few years ago California experimented with “rolling blackouts”. Those who had their own generators were less impacted.

    The necessity for all this may stem from physical realities; but the particular methods chosen will be political first, engineering second, and physics bringing up the rear or more precisely the foundation under the engineering.

  1231. #1232 dean
    January 19, 2016

    I know that m:, i took what you wrote as you wrote it, and given your history (as I said) what you meant wasn’t clear.

    Lesson learned: never trust you to write anything with the intention of honesty.

  1232. #1233 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    dean “never trust you to write anything with the intention of honesty.”

    Now extend that concept to everything you see on the internet.

  1233. #1234 BBD
    January 19, 2016

    M2

    The necessity for all this may stem from physical realities; but the particular methods chosen will be political first, engineering second, and physics bringing up the rear or more precisely the foundation under the engineering.

    So the correct order by causation is: physics, engineering, politics. You have it exactly back to front.

  1234. #1235 Desertphile
    January 19, 2016

    The necessity for all this may stem from physical realities; but the particular methods chosen will be political first, engineering second, and physics bringing up the rear or more precisely the foundation under the engineering.”

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Poe%27s+Law

  1235. #1236 Michael 2
    January 19, 2016

    Desertphile “M2 So the correct order by causation is: physics, engineering, politics. You have it exactly back to front.”

    And that, my friends, is why I blog. I am fascinated by your unwavering belief in the primacy of physics. It causes me to review my own unwavering beliefs.

    Human relationships always come first. On a large scale what humans do with regard to how they relate to each other is called politics. King Hammurabi had little in the way of engineering, less physics, some astronomy, plenty of politics.

    Politics sets societies in motion. Astronomy existed to serve politics just as physics now serves politics.

    The International Trade Union Confederation has called for the goal to be “zero carbon, zero poverty”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

    I doubt 25,000 social justice warriors converged on Paris to discuss physics. I took some time to try to find out what they did and this is an instance where “TLDR” gets a greatly amplified meaning.

  1236. #1237 Chris O'Neill
    January 19, 2016

    m2:

    It was a science test. You failed.

    Failure to point out every last piece of disinformation (of which there are many) in one of your comments isn’t a science test failure. It’s just a failure to point out every last piece of disinformation in one of your comments.

    But obviously it’s just another one of your non-sequitur favourites.

  1237. #1238 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “Failure to point out every last piece of disinformation (of which there are many) in one of your comments isn’t a science test failure.”

    Indeed. It uncovers pedantic physicists.

    You clearly have a desire to correct me, but not as to a physical quantity. That tells me this isn’t “about physics”. This little demonstration merely confirms my suspicions.

    My incorrectness is not physics, it is ideological.

  1238. #1239 Marco
    January 20, 2016

    “I doubt 25,000 social justice warriors converged on Paris to discuss physics.”

    They would not have considered going if it were not because of physics…

  1239. #1240 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    Marco “They would not have considered going if it were not because of physics…”

    I admire your faith. How many of those 25,000 delegates went there because of physics? I have no idea and your faith is misplaced.

    They went there out of fear for some, party for others (as in having a party for some, as in, party allegiance for others). For many, it was an opportunity for social justice of one kind or another.

    “Physics” is not a reason for anything. Do you go to paris because a falling object falls with an acceleration of 9.81 meters per second for each second it is falling? What if it was only 8.8, would you still go to Paris?

    NO. You go to Paris to compel the nations of Earth to quit using fossil fuel because you are afraid of the consequence.

    We don’t have proof of that consequence. You cannot point to “physics”. Well, you can because you did, but it is faulty logic. You go because of fear (among other possible reasons). I would go also if someone paid my way!

    Why do you fear? Because you have been told to fear.

    Sure, somewhere deep in the bowels of all that is some physics. It is easy to show that CO2 captures infrared energy and will re-radiate it; that’s the principle of a carbon dioxide laser. So it is easy enough to suggest that CO2 influences climate. But that’s not enough to make you afraid.

    Is it?

  1240. #1241 BBD
    January 20, 2016

    M2

    Somehow, you have managed to confuse me with Desertphile, who is much better-looking. Use the little pictures as an aide memoire in future 😉

    And that, my friends, is why I blog. I am fascinated by your unwavering belief in the primacy of physics. It causes me to review my own unwavering beliefs.

    Of course physics comes first. Your argument would allow politics to trump gravity. Physics impels the political response, not the other way around, as libertarians seem to believe. This is the danger of such solipsism.

    If the political response is wrong or inadequate, physics will drive the consequences home with an iron fist.

  1241. #1242 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    BBD wrote “If the political response is wrong or inadequate, physics will drive the consequences home with an iron fist.”

    We are converging on agreement. Physics gets the last word. Maybe it ought to have the first and fewer ships would sink, fewer rockets explode.

  1242. #1243 dean
    United States
    January 20, 2016

    m2, I do, but I extend it in spades to folks like you who have a demonstrated history of dishonesty and (as you’ve been doing here) misrepresenting scientific, and other, facts.

  1243. #1244 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    dean wrote “folks like you who have a demonstrated history of dishonesty and misrepresenting scientific, and other, facts.”

    I sense a problem of circularity. To illustrate, I ask you to think of one, maybe three, persons who you trust to provide scientific facts. Why do you trust those persons? What obtains a scientific fact? I have laid at your feet two possible values for “G”, and it might be “g” since they aren’t the same and I don’t remember the difference. Have I conducted any sort of experiment to confirm that 9.81 is the correct value rather than 8.8? No, and very likely neither have you.

    What I have done is used 9.81 in a semi-practical scenario; throw a rock over a cliff, listen for it to hit the bottom, and calculate the height of the cliff. If I used 8.8 the calculation would still work but the cliff would then calculate to less height — but as that’s my only method, I would not detect error.

    As it happens, I have faith in the authors of various science texts that they are faithfully reporting the results of persons who have conducted actual experiments.

    An important aspect of that faith is the independence of the scientists. If they collude with each other, then instead of many scientists, you have few, or just one; that tells the others what results they are to obtain. Continental drift theory hit this problem. The big example is the sun being at the center of the solar system. Powerful forces said the Earth was at the center.

    Therefore, the extent to which any claim can be trusted depends a lot on whether his paycheck depends on him saying it.

    My own dishonesty is well characterized. I use examples like paints for a canvas. The painting is an illustration of a truth, since truth cannot be conveyed in mere words, but the illustration MIGHT be accurately conveyed. DailyKOS is indeed a good example of a tightly controlled echo chamber. I chose a false value of “G” on purpose to illustrate a class of error I have seen at DailyKOS, errors being published, either by the author of an article or, more commonly, in reader comments.

    Without adequate option for anyone to challenge error (or truth), these errors stand. Anyone that is not interested in unchallenged errors abandons DailyKOS because challenge is not permitted.

    Now in the case that the claim is actually true, it must also be defensible, but it means nothing until it is actually challenged, and then defended.

    Therefore, as in a court of law, claims must be challenged and defended, and only then can people have faith that the claim is true, and not everyone must conduct their own experiments on the value of “G”.

    Independence is vital. It makes no difference if a thousand climate scientists get a result if they were all paid by the same government agency headed by el Presidente who has made his views well known. That thousand collapses into one which is still better than none but hardly better than my own opinion (or yours).

    I use Wikipedia a lot. I even pay for it. It is about 70 to 90 percent accurate; but it is an exercise for the reader to decide which parts are accurate. Its utility is a compact resource with plenty of links and citations. It is a great “first” place to go and frequently linked on blogs because one link to Wikipedia offers dozens of links to more primary (well, less tertiary!) sources.

  1244. #1245 dean
    United States
    January 20, 2016

    I sense a problem of circularity.

    Not at all. We have, on one hand, thousands of researchers around the world who reach the same results about climate change. On the other hand we have folks like you (and RickA, and others) who, for reasons you won’t explicitly state, saying they are wrong, not by presenting any research that contradicts them, but by mere assertion, misrepresentation of results, and ignoring the bits you don’t like. In that sense you are no different than the anti-vaccination/autism folks: there isn’t a whit of evidence on your side, but you’re damned sure to continue your campaign of misrepresentation.
    Your most recent post continues with two other moves at being intentionally misleading: trying to cast your fact-free objections to science as part of the scientific method and natural questioning of results is simply a line of bullshit: you are no more presenting valid questions about climate science than creationists raise about evolution. Throwing words used by science in your comments and claiming your views deserve to be taken seriously by the scientific community is blatantly false. I’m guessing you know that but don’t care.
    You are also implying two two other things: that there is no internal discussion of issues about the science by legitimate scientists, and so folks like you are rushing in to rescue civilization from the – well, it isn’t clear what. Again, the notion that researchers in these areas aren’t constantly examining earlier work and updating things is not remotely true, but it is a common trick use by the anti-science folks (like you) to sow doubt in the public. Second, by feigning horror that there are errors in articles in the DailyKOS is an incredibly drastic ploy: when was that ever taken to be a scientific journal, or any publication by researchers? That reference would be laughable if it weren’t so typically dishonest of you.

    So no, there is no reason to question your intent, or the validity of your comments. You’ve repeatedly proven yourself to be an unreliable source of information about the topic at hand, probably intentionally. The bulk of your post at 1240 is simply a asinine bit of whining – your attempt to say “I should be taken seriously.”

    This comment

    Therefore, the extent to which any claim can be trusted depends a lot on whether his paycheck depends on him saying it.

    may be true for some people (denialists especially) but the intended implication is (conjecture here, but it is so often the case from the denialist side that it’s likely a safe one) that climate scientists’ research is as it is because they are tapping into some huge pool of money is stupid on an astronomical scale.

    As for this:
    Therefore, the extent to which any claim can be trusted depends a lot on whether his paycheck depends on him saying it.

    My own dishonesty is well characterized.

    is oddly worded: the final word should really be “demonstrated”.

  1245. #1246 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    dean wrote quite a lot but here’s a few bits that inspire further commentary. “We have, on one hand, thousands of researchers around the world who reach the same results about climate change.”

    Maybe. If it is the same merely repeated thousands of times why are taxpayers paying for it? Maybe you have misrepresented scientists and science; maybe they aren’t actually studying the exact same things! Maybe one is studying tree rings and another is studying ice cores!

    “On the other hand we have folks like you…”

    Hooray for my kind!

    “who, for reasons you won’t explicitly state, saying they are wrong”

    The reason for me not explicitly stating is because I have also not said they are wrong. I might actually get to where I believe this man or that woman is wrong, but you are getting ahead of the game. Stay on script!

    I have not been to the Yamal Peninsula. So I do not challenge Keith Briffa’s measurements of tree rings. I am pretty sure I do not challenge measurements unless my own measurements differ significantly.

    “…and ignoring the bits you don’t like. In that sense you are no different than…”

    Well, no different than you ignoring bits you don’t like.

    “you’re damned sure to continue your campaign of misrepresentation.”

    In what way are you going to differ?

    “Your most recent post continues with two other moves at being intentionally misleading: trying to cast your fact-free objections to science as part of the scientific method”

    It would help if you provided a specific example. Challenging claims is part of the Socratic Method; to a certain extent it also pertains to the Scientific Method where induction was used to make a claim. Induction is weak and must be strengthened by challenge.

    i>”and natural questioning of results is simply a line of bullshit: you are no more presenting valid questions about climate science than creationists raise about evolution.”

    Natural questioning of results is called the Socratic Method.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_method “It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas. It is a dialectical method, often involving a discussion in which the defense of one point of view is questioned; one participant may lead another to contradict themselves in some way, thus weakening the defender’s point. This method is introduced by Socrates … because it is employed to bring out definitions implicit in the interlocutors’ beliefs, or to help them further their understanding.”

    I’ve been doing it this way for years instinctively, not knowing it is an ancient method. Note that its purposes include discovering implicit definitions.

    “Throwing words used by science in your comments and claiming your views deserve to be taken seriously by the scientific community is blatantly false.”

    Well whip me with a wet noodle. I don’t remember doing any of that! I expect to be ignored by the “science community” of which you appear not to be a member.

    “and so folks like you are rushing in to rescue civilization from the – well, it isn’t clear what.”

    I am a libertarian (small-L). I watch civilization. It cannot be rescued although a particular kind of civilization can be defended and supported. Liberty is a cooperative effort; all must support liberty voluntarily or it isn’t liberty. Socialism does not require liberty; it works better without it.

    Liberty must be created; it cannot be rescued. There is no nation on Earth that can be rescued from its own folly. Well, Iceland maybe.

    “Again, the notion that researchers in these areas aren’t constantly examining earlier work and updating things is not remotely true, but it is a common trick use by the anti-science folks (like you) to sow doubt in the public.”

    It took rather a long time to accept continental drift, but yes, eventually “updating things” happened. Until then, millions of people were obliged to believe the erroneous claims of geographers and geologists of the time. Fortunately it didn’t really matter much on the price of bread either way.

    “Second, by feigning horror that there are errors in articles in the DailyKOS is an incredibly drastic ploy: when was that ever taken to be a scientific journal, or any publication by researchers?”

    Right now we are on a blog. DailyKOS is a blog. ATTP is a blog. WUWT is a blog. None are scientific journals, no one that I know has claimed otherwise, so discussing scientific journals is a red herring, a distraction.

    DailyKOS does not permit challenge, does not permit the Socratic Method to “work harden” claims made there. DailyKOS must all be taken on faith or not taken at all.

    Huffington Post used to allow and even encourage dissent and lively debate. That ceased a couple of years ago when it made a hard left turn, about the time Scientific American also made a hard left turn. The consequence of that is both sites are now frequented only by acolytes; faithful believers.

    “So no, there is no reason to question your intent, or the validity of your comments.”

    Reasons do not exist ex-nihilo, they are not cosmic or universal. You make your own reasons if they exist.

    “You’ve repeatedly proven yourself to be an unreliable source of information about the topic at hand, probably intentionally.”

    Partly true. I intentionally am not a source of information. I am a source of challenge. If you accept the challenge your claims will be strengthened by it; assuming those claims survive challenge.

    “your attempt to say I should be taken seriously.”

    There is no “should”. Do, or do not.

    “…that climate scientists’ research is as it is because they are tapping into some huge pool of money is stupid on an astronomical scale.”

    Your defense is weak. Maybe you could show scientists are NOT tapping a huge pool of money such as this pool:

    “Obama’s New Budget Puts Billions Toward Fighting Climate Change” http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/03/3618406/obama-climate-budget/

    Let’s see if I can stuff a graph in here from GAO http://www.gao.gov/key_issues/climate_change_funding_management/issue_summary

    http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/670757.jpg

  1246. #1247 RickA
    United States
    January 20, 2016

    dean #1241 says “On the other hand we have folks like you (and RickA, and others) who, for reasons you won’t explicitly state, saying they are wrong, not by presenting any research that contradicts them, but by mere assertion, misrepresentation of results, and ignoring the bits you don’t like. ”

    I don’t actually say they are wrong.

    I say they might be right or they might be wrong – we don’t know and we won’t know until we actually measure “it”.

    Whether it is the amount of warming by 2100 or the amount of sea level rise or the value of ECS or TCR or whatever.

    I have never said a particular value is flat out wrong – because how would I know.

    I say we should not say a particular value is 100% right.

    I say some values are guesses (educated perhaps by models).

    I say the error bars are huge (3C plus or minus 1.5C).

    Stuff like that.

    I say it is possible that ECS will be 3C or 4.5C or 1.5C, but that the actual observations support a number at the lower end of the range.

    I offer my opinion and have not (to my knowledge) said X is right because I say so.

    We are talking and I am offering you my opinion.

    About science.

    About the law.

    About politics.

    About what we should do in response to CO2 emissions.

    About the advisability of a good cost benefit analysis for any plan we should decide to implement.

    And so forth.

  1247. #1248 BBD
    January 20, 2016

    RickA

    I say we should not say a particular value is 100% right.

    The only people doing that are the likes of Nic Lewis and his lukewarm orchestra.

    I say some values are guesses (educated perhaps by models).

    Yet *again* you repeat a falsehood despite repeated correction. Scientific estimates aren’t guesses and you are a liar.

    I say the error bars are huge (3C plus or minus 1.5C).

    Try to understand what a PDF actually is instead of indulging in yet more self-serving misrepresentation.

    The likelihood of a value being correct tapers off as you move away from the central best estimate.

    These are not ‘huge error bars’ representing an equal likelihood of all values they encompass being correct. They aren’t an indication that there is equal uncertainty between the lower and upper bound of the range. It’s a PDF.

    FFS.

  1248. #1249 BBD
    January 20, 2016

    M2

    We are converging on agreement. Physics gets the last word. Maybe it ought to have the first and fewer ships would sink, fewer rockets explode.

    No, we are not converging on agreement because physics gets the first word: the radiative properties of CO2 are causing an increasing energy imbalance in the climate system.

    It will also get the last word unless we do something to prevent serious climate impacts.

    Your remorseless but futile attempts to frame this as a left vs right political conflict are too simplistic. It’s like this: the right generally rejects the science and everybody else doesn’t. So the right projects its own politicised intransigence and distorted worldview onto everybody else, which it lumps together as ‘the left’. Actually, ‘the sane’ would be much more accurate.

  1249. #1250 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    BBD “No, we are not converging on agreement because physics gets the first word: the radiative properties of CO2 are causing an increasing energy imbalance in the climate system.”

    Maybe. Obviously a great many physical phenomenon are happening, many “imbalances”, including but not exclusively what you appear to believe is the principle cause.

    “It will also get the last word unless we do something to prevent serious climate impacts.”

    I agree that it will do what it is going to do because it must do what it must do. Whether you or anyone else has a correct and perfect grasp of that future is less certain to me.

    “Your remorseless but futile attempts to frame this as a left vs right political conflict are too simplistic.”

    I suspect we differ on what “this” is! But that goes to the heart of what started this whole thing; Mark Steyn sees one thing, Michael Mann sees something else, and these two seeings are somewhat orthogonal.

    “It’s like this: the right generally rejects the science and everybody else doesn’t.”

    That is what the left tells itself, it is what the Washington Post writes and National Geographic echoes. I have seen little evidence of it other than your protestations that it is so. I don’t deny the phenomenon, just that I have not seen it. I am neither left nor right it would seem.

    I also consider the phrase inaccurate. Some people resist claims of any and all kinds; sweeping “scientific” claims with the same broom into the same dustbin.

    “So the right projects its own politicised intransigence and distorted worldview onto everybody else, which it lumps together as ‘the left’. Actually, ‘the sane’ would be much more accurate.”

    Your simple-minded view of “the right” is about as accurate.

    But it is not symmetrical. The left IS defined; many things surround the left in a cloud, but a nucleus exist and has been written about again and again; Plato, Marx, Engels up to Alinsky. It is hive, it is herd. Anything not-herd is also not defined because the herd does not care to know about not-herd.

    There may be another nucleus, another attractor in the vast realm of “not herd”, but it is a mistake to believe that all not-herd are clones of each other.

  1250. #1251 dean
    United States
    January 20, 2016

    “I am a libertarian ”

    That explains a lot – you seem to follow the version that values dishonesty over thought.

    “I intentionally am not a source of information. I am a source of challenge.”

    You “challenges” are pure horse hockey – that is the point.

  1251. #1252 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    dean “You challenges are pure horse hockey – that is the point.”

    And yet, here you are 😉 As Willard explains, the only way to lose is not to play!

  1252. #1253 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 20, 2016

    I haven’t had time to read all the responses, but the ones I have sure are funny and enlightening. All of the sudden, because I have the temerity to think my wife is beautiful in every sense of the word (emotionally, intellectually, and, yes, physically) I am all of the sudden misogynistic who only values women for their looks…

    It is kind of ironic, really, in that the main critique of climate sciences is jumping to significant conclusions based on minimal evidence. I promise you I am the furthest think from misogynistic. Also (and this might be news to all of you beta-male, emasculated, dweebs) but most woman (at least the ones in my life) actually appreciate being complemented on their appearance. Most women spend long hours, far more then men, keeping their appearances up. My wife goes to the gym 5 days a week at 5 a.m., and certainly appreciates when I compliment her on her efforts..

    No wonder women today gripe and moan there are no real men left…..holy cow…

  1253. #1254 Dan
    January 20, 2016

    Rick, your post#1160 is exactly right. That is exactly what I have been saying; i.e., Mann has an extremely difficult (borderline impossible) case, because he has to show that Steyn’s comments were not opinion, not true, made with malice, etc.

    The odds of Mann meeting all those requirements are long indeed.

  1254. #1255 BBD
    January 20, 2016

    M2

    “Physics” is not a reason for anything.

    It’s the reason why CO2 causes climate change.

    You go to Paris to compel the nations of Earth to quit using fossil fuel because you are afraid of the consequence.

    Some of these partying polymaths understand physics *and* ecosystems science.

    We don’t have proof of that consequence. You cannot point to “physics”. Well, you can because you did, but it is faulty logic.

    Science doesn’t deal in proof – that’s faulty reasoning. We have a very high probability and lots of palaeoclimate evidence, which is sufficient for those of us not mired in prior political commitments.

    So it is easy enough to suggest that CO2 influences climate. But that’s not enough to make you afraid.

    Is it?

    It should be.

  1255. #1256 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    BBD “It’s the reason why CO2 causes climate change.” [Re: Physics is not a reason for anything. ]

    Physics is a branch of science. Science is the art of knowing things. Knowing a thing does not cause a thing. I’ll grant that definition 2.a. allows for the actual processes (independent of the study of those processes) to be called “physics”, perhaps in the same sense one might short-hand refer to the “mechanics” of an automobile.

    I have never used the word “physics” in that sense, but plainly you do, and it might be the only way you are using that word. How interesting!

    In that sense, I am somewhat compelled to agree that 25,000 delegates were at least somewhat involved in, and motivated by, physical processes that you have been calling physics but I have not. My memory is a bit resistant to update so I’m going to hammer this in my mind for a bit and see if I can update my sense of what it means.

    From Merriam-webster:

    Full Definition of physics 1: a science that deals with matter and energy and their interactions. 2 a: the physical processes and phenomena of a particular system b : the physical properties and composition of something

    So, what is science?

    Full Definition of science. 1 : the state of knowing: knowledge as distinguished from ignorance or misunderstanding. 2 a: a department of systematized knowledge as an object of study b : something (as a sport or technique) that may be studied or learned like systematized knowledge . 3 a: knowledge or a system of knowledge covering general truths or the operation of general laws especially as obtained and tested through scientific methodb : such knowledge or such a system of knowledge concerned with the physical world and

  1256. #1257 dean
    January 20, 2016

    no m2, your incorrectness is about physics, as you continually show that you don’t understand it but believe it to be wrong. same with dan and ricka.

  1257. #1258 Bernard J.
    January 20, 2016

    I say we should not say a particular value is 100% right.

    Straw man. Logical fallacy.

    No one has ever said that.

    I say some values are guesses (educated perhaps by models).

    Perhaps from the denialist side. You are a case in point.

    Science on the other hand uses both models and evidence to arrive at values that are not “guesses”, but the results of mathematics.

    I say the error bars are huge (3C plus or minus 1.5C).

    Stuff like that.

    BBD has already mentioned something that I was going to raise… Do you understand what a PDF is?

    I say it is possible that ECS will be 3C or 4.5C or 1.5C, but that the actual observations support a number at the lower end of the range.

    References?

    You say all that, but I note that you avoided responding to my post at #1222. Just to remind you, we’ve increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from 280 ppm at the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution, to 400 ppm today. And according to Berkeley Earth we’ve warmed the planet by 1.2 °C in that time:

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/hottest-year-on-record/

    So, using those data, how would you scratch out a rough estimate of transient climate sensitivity? And what caveats would you put on that estimate?

  1258. #1259 Bernard J.
    January 20, 2016

    My kingdom for a preview…

    I say we should not say a particular value is 100% right.

    Straw man. Logical fallacy.

    No one has ever said that.

    I say some values are guesses (educated perhaps by models).

    Perhaps from the denialist side. You are a case in point.

    Science on the other hand uses both models and evidence to arrive at values that are not “guesses”, but the results of mathematics.

    I say the error bars are huge (3C plus or minus 1.5C).

    Stuff like that.

    BBD has already mentioned something that I was going to raise… Do you understand what a PDF is?

    I say it is possible that ECS will be 3C or 4.5C or 1.5C, but that the actual observations support a number at the lower end of the range.

    References?

    You say all that, but I note that you avoided responding to my post at #1222. Just to remind you, we’ve increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from 280 ppm at the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution, to 400 ppm today. And according to Berkeley Earth we’ve warmed the planet by 1.2 °C in that time:

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/hottest-year-on-record/

    So, using those data, how would you scratch out a rough estimate of transient climate sensitivity? And what caveats would you put on that estimate?

  1259. #1260 RickA
    United States
    January 20, 2016

    BBD #1245:

    You said “Try to understand what a PDF actually is instead of indulging in yet more self-serving misrepresentation.”

    It is my understanding that according to AR5 that ECS is LIKELY to be between 1.5 and 4.5C. AR5 defines likely as 66% to 100% – which covers 34% of the PDF – which is less than one standard deviation. One standard deviation cover 68% of the values within one standard deviation of the mean.

    So what 34% – about 1/2 (.5) of a standard deviation?

    So this is not the 95% range, which is within 2 standard deviations of the mean – but instead covers much less of the PDF (about 34% instead of 95%).

    So just for fun – what would the range be for 1 standard deviation around the mean?

    How about 2 standard deviations around the mean?

    Is that your understanding also?

  1260. #1261 Chris O'Neill
    January 20, 2016

    RickA: “AR5 defines likely as 66% to 100% – which covers 34% of the PDF”

    No RickA. Likely covers 66% to 100% of the PDF which is at least 66% of the PDF. The IPCC also said “climate sensitivity is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C” and they define “very unlikely” as 0-10 per cent probability.

    Stick to law, RickA, where you can bullshit your way through and stay away from anything mathematical where you have a long history of making things up.

  1261. #1262 Michael 2
    January 20, 2016

    dean wrote “no m2, your incorrectness is about physics, as you continually show that you don’t understand it but believe it to be wrong.”

    Physics is not an “it” that is either understood or not understood and can only be right or wrong. It is a vast realm of natural and theoretical knowledge with Stephen Hawking at one end and my dog at the other on this spectrum of knowledge.

  1262. #1263 Bernard J.
    January 20, 2016

    It is my understanding that according to AR5 that ECS is LIKELY to be between 1.5 and 4.5C. AR5 defines likely as 66% to 100% – which covers 34% of the PDF – which is less than one standard deviation. One standard deviation cover 68% of the values within one standard deviation of the mean.

    RickA, stop avoiding the elephant in the room. Stop guessing. Stop pretending that I didn’t ask you a question.

    I gave you some numbers above, which are easily subjected to a logarithmic fit. What is the aggregate, contemporary climate sensitivity value that results?

    For bonus points, can you comment on the caveats underpinning, and the implications of, such a value?

  1263. #1264 Bernard J.
    January 20, 2016

    Oh, and RickA, I was previously conservative in describing the realised warming to date. Apparently 1.25 °C is a more accurate estimation…

  1264. #1265 Chris O'Neill
    January 20, 2016

    m2: “You clearly have a desire to correct me”

    I clearly have a desire to point out your bullshit.

  1265. #1266 Chris O'Neill
    January 20, 2016

    Dan:

    he has to show that Steyn’s comments were not opinion, not true, made with malice,

    or made with reckless disregard for the truth.

    The odds of Mann meeting all those requirements are long indeed.

    Thanks for your worthless opinion.

  1266. #1267 Marco
    January 21, 2016

    “I admire your faith. How many of those 25,000 delegates went there because of physics? I have no idea and your faith is misplaced.”

    All of them ultimately went there because of physics. If there would have been no climate change, there would not have been a meeting on what to do about climate change.

  1267. #1268 Michael 2
    January 21, 2016

    Marco “All of them ultimately went there because of physics. If there would have been no climate change, there would not have been a meeting on what to do about climate change.”

    Trivial. As BBD explains, physics is also the operations of anything physical. Everyone that traveled using any kind of machine “went there because of physics”.

    We are having this conversation “because of physics”.

    We exist because of physics.

    Physics is in everything; so large it fills the universe but so small it occupies less than an atom.

    No thought takes place except physics is involved.

    This is really starting to sound like a religion!

  1268. #1269 BBD
    January 21, 2016

    M2

    Thank you for confirming my point that physics is the reason why CO2 causes climate change:

    Full Definition of physics 1: a science that deals with matter and energy and their interactions. 2 a: the physical processes and phenomena of a particular system

    Can we stop the semantic nitpicking now? I know contrartian love these excursions into the long grass, but I don’t.

    * * *

    Maybe. Obviously a great many physical phenomenon are happening, many “imbalances”, including but not exclusively what you appear to believe is the principle cause.

    Not ‘maybe’. The increase in forcing from CO2 is the largest single forcing change since the pre-industrial period. If you dispute this – and the consequential effect on the climate system – you toddle off and find the published evidence that something else has had a greater effect. No debunked rubbish by Scafetta please.

    The rest of the rubbish about ‘the left’ has been dealt with already; the demographic should be called ‘the sane’ and is much wider than ‘the left’ politically – unless you are a right wing ideologue, that is. As pointed out, the politicisation of the issue has come from the right, which has rejected the science ever since it woke up to the fact that, as Lord Stern put it:

    Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen.

    The ceaseless attack on science by the right bears witness to the fact that climate change is an existential threat to free market fundamentalism.

  1269. #1270 dean
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    It is a vast realm of natural and theoretical knowledge with Stephen Hawking at one end and my dog at the other on this spectrum of knowledge.

    you do spend a lot of words saying the nonsensical, but I would agree that your knowledge and understanding of science is at the same level as that of a dog.

  1270. #1271 RickA
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    Bernard #1261:

    What is your formula for TCR?

    Not TCR = (Forcing at 2x times delta T)/ delta F.

    That is the one I am familiar with.

  1271. #1272 BBD
    January 21, 2016

    RickA

    It is my understanding that according to AR5 that ECS is LIKELY to be between 1.5 and 4.5C. AR5 defines likely as 66% to 100% – which covers 34% of the PDF – which is less than one standard deviation.

    Just embarrassing. Why are you still even here?

    But since you are, can you confirm that you understand that the 0.7C lower bound on Nic Lewis’s range is unphysical as it is below the no-feedbacks sensitivity for 2 x CO2?

    You blanked this.

  1272. #1273 RickA
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    BBD #1270:

    It seems unphysical to me, since 1C is the no-feedback sensitivity.

    Unless there is a small possibility of a negative feedback (5%)?

    But the median mean of 1.66 is physical – right?

  1273. #1274 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 21, 2016

    Chris Oneil, #1256: Um “reckless disregard” is included in the definition of “malice” as it applies in the libel context. Your post is redundant; kind of like saying an act is “illegal and against the law.” Really!?! Who knew…

    I know, I know, you and BBD and the rest think Steyn’s reliance on 120 scientists (at least) was “reckless” because they were mere “climate scientists” as opposed to “paleoclimatologists,” despite the fact that some of those Steyn relied on are professor’s in the same field as Mann…

    Of course, you haven’t provided any legal authority to back up your assertion that such reliance by Steyn, if true, constitutes recklessness….but then why would you do that? It is much easier to sputter off about what you think the law says or what you want it to say…

  1274. #1275 BBD
    January 21, 2016

    #1271 RickA

    But the median mean of 1.66 is physical – right?

    Perhaps I’m not making myself clear. While 1.66C is isn’t unphysical, it’s very unlikely as it is incompatible with palaeoclimate behaviour. It’s also a result derived from the midpoint of a range which extends into the realm of the definitely unphysical. When the lower bound of the range is clearly incorrect, the central estimate is clearly incorrect too.

  1275. #1276 BBD
    January 21, 2016

    Dan

    I know, I know, you and BBD and the rest think Steyn’s reliance on 120 scientists (at least) was “reckless” because they were mere “climate scientists” as opposed to “paleoclimatologists,”

    List the actual climate scientists.

    To assist you with this definition, a climate scientist is someone with a body of published work on climate. Random physicists and geologists etc. pontificating well outside their fields of expertise do not count.

    You *keep on* making wildly inflated claims about the number of ‘climate scientists’ who said (in your own words, many, many times now) that Mann’s work was fraudulent.

    These claims are false.

    We’ve established that:

    1/ Not a single palaeoclimatologist has made this claim

    2/ Not a single climate scientist has made this claim

    3/ Some non-climate scientists may have made this claim

    4/ You are making false claims over and over again on this thread and refusing to admit it when nailed for it

    5/ You are dishonest

  1276. #1277 Brainstorms
    January 21, 2016

    6/ You are desperate

    7/ You are failing to make your arguments

  1277. #1278 RickA
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    BBD #1273 said “When the lower bound of the range is clearly incorrect, the central estimate is clearly incorrect too.”

    Perhaps.

    I look forward to the day we can measure TCR, ECS and effective climate sensitivity and see what the actual measured answer is – rather than all these different estimates.

  1278. #1279 Michael 2
    January 21, 2016

    Marco, I am wondering in what year was there NOT climate change? Shall 25,000 delegates meet somewhere every year to discuss the changes of that year? Maybe so.

  1279. #1280 Dan
    Las
    January 21, 2016

    BBD: I listed plenty of climate scientists, and paleoclimatologists . Judith Curry is a climate scientist, who says, clearly, Mann’s research is dishonest (although not rising to the level of academic fraud. Curiously, Steyn doesn’t say that either; he said Mann manipulated the data, which is exactly what Dr. Curry says).

    I gave you Dr. Zorita, who likewise said Mann should be kicked of the IPCC. Why? Not because he smells bad, but because his research was questionable, and he bullied other scientists who disagreed with him (a form of manipulating data).

    Really, I could go on, and on, and on. There are hundreds of scientists out there who claim Mann manipulated the data. You can disagree with their opinion. But to deny they even make the claim just shows your beta-male, millennial whininess. Dr, Curry posted an internet article, linked above, titled “The Fraudulent Hockey Stick,” in which she again said Mann’s findings were dishonest.

    You just refuse to admit the obvious, and kept moving the goal posts. First, name a scientist; then name a climate scientist; then, name a paleoclimatologist (which is ironic, because Mann is a professor of atmospheric science, not paleoclimatology).

    When I gave you that information, you said “but, but, but, none of those scientists used the work fraud,” ignoring the fact that they used the clear synonyms, and, more importantly, Steyn never used the word fraud in the blog post Mann is suing over.

    This all started because you and others think Steyn was reckless in his blog post because no scientist (then climate scientist, etc) said the same thing. I gave you clear evidence that plenty of scientists, including members of the IPCC, and scientists who have testified before congress on climate change, that have questioned Mann’s work.

    Since I answered your question, here is mine to you: name one constitutional scholar who has opined Steyn’s comments constitute libel, or that Mann has a strong case, or (even) that libel cases against public figures are anything but difficult cases in the United States.

    Good luck with that, despite the fact that this case is heavily commented upon within the legal community.

    I won’t hold my breath…

  1280. #1281 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 21, 2016

    Brainstorms: That is funny, coming form you (I am desperate). Honestly, I really don’t care what you think. I care about the free speech issues involved. Again, show me one respected First Amendment Scholar who states Mann’s case is anything but (as Rick and I have said) nearly impossible (of difficult, or hard, or likely to fail, since I know you and BDD don’t understand the concepts of synonyms, metaphors, analogies, etc).

    This, coming from someone who calls me a “nobody,” but doesn’t have the guts to identify himself in this debate (not that I care; it is just lame to call someone out personally when you hide behind a computer screen, then throw a hissy fit when I respond by saying I am quite pleased with my professional and personal life, and to let me know when any major companies, or anyone, for that matter, pays you hundreds of dollars an hour for your advice on anything…)

    Check mate….

  1281. #1282 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 21, 2016

    http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2015/10/19/scientists-expose-climate-shysterism-and-flim-flammery

    Read it and weep, ladies (and, yes, I know the heartland institute, but this article contains quotes from many climate scientists that specifically states, in many ways, that the climate change theory promoted by Mann, et. al, is “dishonest,” propaganda,” etc.

    M2, sit back and watch all these dweebs deny that some scientists, including climate scientists, think Mann is dishonest. I have given them article, after article, after article, and they refuse to acknowledge that simple point (note, I am not asking them to concede Mann is a fraud, just that some of his professional colleagues think so…)

  1282. #1283 Michael 2
    January 21, 2016

    I am somewhat sympathetic to Michael Mann, a graduate student who probably did not realize that he had grabbed the tail of a tiger. “There but for lack of PhD funds go I” if you take my meaning.

    Essentially all of my academic friends are competitive with their peers. It doesn’t pay well but academics don’t go into it for the money; you go for prestige and fame and also famously job security. Reputation is nearly everything in almost any academic world and so Michael Mann, a PhD candidate at the time if I remember right, was trying to establish a name for himself and it is exactly in that situation that young scientists are likely to cut corners. They’re just a grad student; who is going to notice or care?

    He succeeded, but not really by his own effort. He’s a pawn and I almost feel sympathy for pawns. Where are the power players in all this? The rook, the knight, the bishop and the queen? I think we know who they are and they are very slowly sacrificing their pawn despite throwing a bit of money his way for litigation.

    It is a gambit, you lose a valuable piece in the game IF you think it improves your overall position.

    So what does that mean? If the metaphor is valid, it means that the Consensus fears Mark Steyn more than it values Michael Mann. He’s done his duty; introduced “hockey stick” to the world — what can he do now? Be a martyr figuratively speaking, attacked by deniers. Build up some sympathy vote.

    Mark Steyn has also done a duty; a duty taken on by reporters, journalists, pundits and commentators to shine a light in the darkness, reveal what is hidden, to shame the proud and elevate the humble.

  1283. #1284 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 21, 2016

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/12/07/climategates-michael-mann-channels-his-inner-palpatine/#21807f2856c2

    He is an independent article, with original sources, showing Michael Mann tried to pressure Harvard University into disciplining scientists there whose research concluded recent climate fluctuation was the result of solar variance, not CO2 emissions.

    This revelation, in and of itself, makes Steyn’s claims reasonable. One doesn’t have to be a scientist to know that it is dishonest to pressure universities into ignoring research with a different conclusion. That is dishonest across in any academic field.

    BBD, or Chris: 1) Do you admit that Mann sent the email referenced n the article, 2) Do you admit that, if Mann did send the email, it was an effort to silence those climate scientists who disagree and/or whose research reached a different conclusion, and 3) if yes to both 1 and 2, isn’t that dishonest?

  1284. #1285 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 21, 2016

    M2: I have been down the road with these guys; they simply cannot admit that Steyn is allowed to disagree, and, yes, think a public figure is dishonest. It is no different then calling a politician a crook.

    As has been mentioned, over and over, dozens of medial and civil rights groups filed amicus briefs on Steyn’s behalf. Why? Not because the NYT or WaPo agrees with Steyn’s points, but they realize that, if Mann is successful, it will be the greatest set back to the First Amendment this country has ever seen.

    Think of all the questionable allegations lodged at politicians and other public figures all the time? Steyn is a pundit. Of course he is within his rights to assert that a climate scientist with a track record of bullying those who dissent with his findings into silence and, by his own admission, used different sets of data for MBH 98 and MBH 99, “tortures and manipulates” data.

    The problem with BBD and his ilk is either A) a complete lack of maturity, or 2) they somehow hope to get in the climate science game via grants, research, etc. If research starts showing climate change is the result of solar variance, or doesn’t exist, or its main proponents are dishonest, they risk tax-payer funded research grants.

    Of course, the could just rely on the private sector, like the (gasp) #kochfundednazis….

  1285. #1286 SteveP
    January 21, 2016

    Oh goody! This game of denialist vs scientist is still active!
    I see that a previous poster is using word games at the science rock fight. That is not going to win any points here. Oh, and the strategy of trivializing the ruling authority of physics in front of scientists….right. That’ll work…! Hmmmm. Scanning back up through the posts I see that someone is having trouble grasping the order of magnitude of energy used by the average Murkan. Either that or they don’t understand that kWhrs are convertible to joules or BTUs . Either way, the opposition is definitely not sending their A team today. Pity. Kind of takes all the sport out of it….

  1286. #1287 dean
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    they simply cannot admit that Steyn is allowed to disagree

    Dan, this is one of the most blatant lies you’ve told so far, and almost everything you’ve said about this has been wrong.
    Locate anywhere where it was said steyn isn’t allowed to disagree.

  1287. #1288 Bernard J.
    January 21, 2016

    Essentially all of my academic friends are competitive with their peers. It doesn’t pay well but academics don’t go into it for the money; you go for prestige and fame and also famously job security.

    This is a very distorted understanding of academia. Very few academics garner broad “prestige and fame”, or even local attention, and very few of the several thousand that I have met in my career have sought it. Academics usually “go for” the love of knowledge and of learning and of discovery of new understanding.

    And tenure is much different outside of the USA – in many countries a lot of academic/research positions are funded by grants, and when the project concludes the jobs evaporate. Even amongst the “tenured” academics in Australia there is not necessarily any long-term security – over the last decade most, if not all, universities have had rounds of job redundancies where academics have been “moved on”…

    I can’t comment on US academics’ motivations for entering academia, but perhaps the ones reading this thread can describe their motivations and what place tenure plays in it. If it’s anything like the rest of the world though, tenure will be one of the motivations lowest on the list.

  1288. #1289 Bernard J.
    January 21, 2016

    Bernard #1261:

    What is your formula for TCR?

    Not TCR = (Forcing at 2x times delta T)/ delta F.

    Transient climate response is defined by a number of authors and by the IPCC as “the global mean temperature change which occurs at the time of CO₂ doubling for the specific case of a 1%/yr increase of CO₂”. This is a standardised definition that relies on a number of assumptions which may or may not apply to the sensitivity realised to date.

    You’ll notice though that I used the term ‘transient climate sensitivity, which around the blogosphere at least is understood to be the simple, extrapolated sensitivity realised to date. And I expanded on this in a subsequent post to give you a bit more a hint about this, when I used the terms “aggregate” and “contemporary”.

    As for the “formula”, I told you in both the link above and in the original post that I simply applied a logarimthic fit to the realised CO₂ increase and temperature anomaly. It’s straightforward mathematics.

    Of course, there are a couple of issues that need to be considered, not the least of which is the contribution of realised forcings and feedbacks to date, and also the contribution of CO₂ equivalents, which I had hoped you would identify and use as a challenge against my value of 2.33 °C. Unsurprisingly you didn’t manage to get to even this point, but perhaps you’d like to take up that cugel now? Hint, I do have several justifications by way of riposte…

  1289. #1290 Bernard J.
    January 21, 2016

    [A preview facility would be very useful, Scienceblogs…]

    Bernard #1261:

    What is your formula for TCR?

    Not TCR = (Forcing at 2x times delta T)/ delta F.

    Transient climate response is defined by a number of authors and by the IPCC as “the global mean temperature change which occurs at the time of CO₂ doubling for the specific case of a 1%/yr increase of CO₂”. This is a standardised definition that relies on a number of assumptions which may or may not apply to the sensitivity realised to date.

    You’ll notice though that I used the term ‘transient climate sensitivity, which around the blogosphere at least is understood to be the simple, extrapolated sensitivity realised to date. And I expanded on this in a subsequent post to give you a bit more a hint about this, when I used the terms “aggregate” and “contemporary”.

    As for the “formula”, I told you in both the link above and in the original post that I simply applied a logarimthic fit to the realised CO₂ increase and temperature anomaly. It’s straightforward mathematics.

    Of course, there are a couple of issues that need to be considered, not the least of which is the contribution of realised forcings and feedbacks to date, and also the contribution of CO₂ equivalents, which I had hoped you would identify and use as a challenge against my value of 2.33 °C. Unsurprisingly you didn’t manage to get to even this point, but perhaps you’d like to take up that cugel now? Hint, I do have several justifications by way of riposte…

  1290. #1291 SteveP
    January 21, 2016

    I looked at Dr. Mann’s complaint again. He contends that the defendants accused him of academic fraud and compared him to convicted child molester Jerry Sandusky. Note to all the imbeciles whining about free-speech rights; Dr. Mann finds the defendants highly publicized statements to be false and damaging. Doesn’t he have a right to defend himself? Are you free-speechers suggesting that free speech means freedom to speak without any consequences, and that the targets of your attacks must remain silent? Have you no understanding of the concept of taking responsibility for your actions?

    Dr. Mann had little choice but to confront his attackers. To remain silent under the type of vitriolic attacks that Simberg and Steyn were launching would be to invite even further abuse.

    This lawsuit is not an attack on free speech, damn it, it is a case of stand your ground. And he is doing it in a court of law, and I hope that he has a really good lawyer. I would hate for Steyn, Simberg , CEI, and National Review to get away unscathed, but that could happen. I guess that the bright spot of hope here it that the longer the case drags on, the higher the global temperature anomaly is likely to be, and the harder it will be for the defendants to find a jury that will seriously believe that global warming is a hoax and that Mann is a fraud. A record breaking hot summer day would be the perfect time to have the jury deliberate on the case.

    I think that it will be relatively easy to show to a jury that Simberg had reckless disregard for the truth when he compared Mann’s academic behavior to that of a child molester. Simberg is not a climate scientist, he is a CEI “scholar”, and he will have a difficult time explaining how he could reasonably publish as fact his conclusion that Mann’s academic behavior was comparable to sexual perversion. Simberg and Steyn fit my definition of bullying ideologues, and I hope that they get bounced really thoroughly in a court of law.

  1291. #1292 RickA
    United States
    January 21, 2016

    SteveP #1291 asks “Doesn’t he have a right to defend himself?”

    Yes.

    Must Mann remain silent? No. But he could have defended himself in the court of public opinion and not legal court. Of course he has the right to go to court. It is just that many think he will lose. But that is his choice.

    If what Steyn wrote is found to be an opinion it cannot be false (by definition).

    If what Steyn wrote is found not to be an opinion, but is found to not be false – Steyn wins. Steyn also wins if he can show what he wrote is true (if it is found to be a statement of fact and not opinion).

    Finally, even if the court were to find Steyns writings are not opinion and false – but cannot find they were made with actual malice – Steyn wins.

    So Mann has three conditions he has to succeed on to win and Steyn can win on any one of the three and win the whole case.

    That is why my opinion is that Steyn will win.

  1292. #1293 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    “Mark Steyn has also done a duty; a duty taken on by reporters, journalists, pundits and commentators to shine a light in the darkness, reveal what is hidden, to shame the proud and elevate the humble.”

    Actually, he has not done that duty. If he had, he would have admitted that across the scientific world essentially no one considered the hockeystick fraudulent. And the few who do are ideologically inclined to dismiss any evidence that it isn’t. Steyn is just pushing his beliefs, thereby not elevating the humble, but the ideologically proud.

    Take also this nonsense from you:
    “so Michael Mann, a PhD candidate at the time if I remember right, was trying to establish a name for himself and it is exactly in that situation that young scientists are likely to cut corners. They’re just a grad student; who is going to notice or care? ”

    MBH was actually the result of Mann’s postdoctoral work (granted, Mann received his PhD in 1998, but already had defended it in 1996). He was working with Bradley, with a postdoctoral grant in his pocket, since 1996. He also had a Yale prize in his pocket in 1997. He also was already nominated to be lead author for IPCC TAR in 1997. All of that shows that ‘making a name for himself’ had already happened before MBH98/99.

  1293. #1294 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    “But he could have defended himself in the court of public opinion and not legal court.”

    How? He is not given access to the same media as Steyn and CEI. He tried to have the media involved to correct the record. They declined and doubled down.

    “Finally, even if the court were to find Steyns writings are not opinion and false – but cannot find they were made with actual malice – Steyn wins.”

    Steyn would win the case, but Mann could still use it to *also* declare a win: anyone who would call Mann’s work fraudulent would now know that the court declared Steyn’s opinion to be false.

  1294. #1295 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    #1276 RickA

    Perhaps.

    No. Not ‘perhaps’. Definitely – and your refusal to admit it speaks volumes. If the lower bound of Lewis’s range is unphysical then it is clearly incorrect. Therefore the central estimate is also clearly incorrect. End of story.

  1295. #1296 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    # 1279 Dan

    BBD: I listed plenty of climate scientists, and paleoclimatologists .

    No, you didn’t. You managed just TWO, neither of whom said that Mann’s work was fraudulent – a word that you use continuously on this thread. My point has always been that your claims are false.

    Furthermore, you ignored the fact that nobody has demonstrated significant errors in Mann’s work, let alone actual ‘dishonesty’. Just saying stuff isn’t enough where science is concerned. You need to understand that. Curry needs to understand that too. She, not Mann, is a disgrace in this context.

    It’s easy to show that there’s nothing wrong with Mann’s work because if there was, it would have been overturned by subsequent studies and this has not happened.

    We’ve been through all this over and over again and *still* you won’t admit that you are making false claims. Worse, you keep on repeating them.

    So you are exposed as a liar who makes serial false claims despite being nailed for it repeatedly. You know you’ve been filleted here, so why keep coming back for more?

  1296. #1297 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    #1283 Dan

    2) Do you admit that, if Mann did send the email, it was an effort to silence those climate scientists who disagree and/or whose research reached a different conclusion, and 3) if yes to both 1 and 2, isn’t that dishonest?

    The Forbes link you provide speaks of ‘researchers at Harvard‘ and carfully avoids mentioning a specific name: Willie Soon, which is… odd.

    First off, Willie Soon isn’t a ‘Harvard’ researcher at all – he works at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics which is *not* the same as employment by Harvard. The article is materially misleading.

    Second, not identifying Soon allows Taylor to avoid mentioning that Soon’s climate-related work has been comprehensively rebutted and is held in very low regard indeed. Yet we need to know this in order to evaluate the claim being made against Mann. At this point it’s also worth mentioning that Soon isn’t a climate scientist or even an astrophysicist – he’s an aerospace engineer not a climate scientist.

    Third, (although James Taylor was not to know at the time) it has since been revealed that Soon is entirely funded by the fossil fuel industry to produce ‘deliverables’ of the sort Mann was objecting to. What’s arguably even worse is that Soon repeatedly failed to disclose this conflict of interest. Soon is discredited, perhaps even disgraced at this point. Mann’s objections to Soon’s deeply flawed and partisan work were entirely correct.

    You should be more careful what you wave around.

  1297. #1298 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    Dan #1283, and BBD #1297

    “showing Michael Mann tried to pressure Harvard University into disciplining scientists there whose research concluded recent climate fluctuation was the result of solar variance, not CO2 emissions. ”

    The interesting thing is that the e-mail does NOT provide ANY evidence that “Michael Mann tried to pressure Harvard University into disciplining scientists there whose research concluded recent climate fluctuation was the result of solar variance, not CO2 emissions”.

    In the conveniently not-quoted -by-Taylor-part of the e-mail, Mann states “Their ability to repeatedly co-opt the Harvard news office remains a real problem. Nobody I’ve talked to at Harvard is happy about this, and there’s been talk of action on the part of various of the faculty, but nobody seems willing or able to mount enough of an effort to get anything done about this.”

    As far as I know it is indeed odd that the Harvard news department put out the press released, considering that the work quoted came from the Harvard-Smithsonian center for astrophysics, with both Soon and Baliunas working in the Smithsonian part, not the Harvard part. But it was quoted everywhere as supposedly being work from Harvard.

    That is, the “action” may well, and more likely, refers to the use/abuse of the name of Harvard.

    It may be of interest to BBD that once again Steve McIntyre was the one starting the storyline that Taylor wrote down for Forbes.

  1298. #1299 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    Thanks for the additional – and important – detail, Marco. Taylor’s article is even more misleading than I realised.

    But it is always the same. The ‘experts’ that really aren’t expert at all. The papers that fall apart under even cursory scrutiny. The lying by omission and by commission. The ubiquitous prior commitment to ‘free’ market ideology and political (and often religious) conservatism.

    The herd of useful idiots braying away on the internet…

  1299. #1300 Michael 2
    January 22, 2016

    BBD wrote “The herd of useful idiots braying away on the internet…”

    Took the words right out of my keyboard!

  1300. #1301 SteveP
    January 22, 2016

    # 1292 RickA
    “If what Steyn wrote is found to be an opinion it cannot be false (by definition).”
    What is the definition of opinion in law? Writing defamatory declarative sentences about someone without any qualifying words or phrases to indicate that the author is opining, and doing so in forums that are widely read internationally, seems to me like a great way to get sued for defamation. Hasn’t Mann given the authors the chance to call back their words? Couldn’t the authors have simply clearly indicated, in print, that the writings in question were merely deeply held opinions, and thus have deflected this whole debacle? So it looks to me like a singer of pain inducing dreck, and a gun lover, and their extremist publications are standing by their right to hurl malicious, destructive, falsehoods at a whistle blower who is offending their oil billionaire patrons. No, they could not stand down. They were under orders. So they are going to try to hide behind the rather gossamer film of a suggestion that it is well understood that they were only writing opinions. Let’s let a jury decide.

    “If what Steyn wrote is found not to be an opinion, but is found to not be false – Steyn wins. Steyn also wins if he can show what he wrote is true (if it is found to be a statement of fact and not opinion).”
    The science is on Mann’s side on this one. Let a jury decide if the nausea inducing singer and the gun slinger are more brilliant in climatology than the long list of scientists who are likely to testify in Mann’s defense.

    “Finally, even if the court were to find Steyns writings are not opinion and false – but cannot find they were made with actual malice – Steyn wins.” Right. You don’t think that comparing a person’s honest, life work in science, at the service of humanity, to the activities of a widely loathed, convicted child raper, in a publication readily available to all of one’s peers, family, friends, and everyone in government and academia can’t possibly be construed as malicious? Just playful teasing is it? Again, let a jury decide.

  1301. #1302 Michael 2
    January 22, 2016

    SteveP concludes his lengthy piece finding Steyn guilty by writing “Let’s let a jury decide.”

    Yes, let’s.

  1302. #1303 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan:

    “reckless disregard” is included in the definition of “malice” as it applies in the libel context.

    Well sorree for being so specific.

    you and BBD and the rest think Steyn’s reliance on 120 scientists

    Just point out where even just Curry (who is deranged) says MBH98/99 contains fraud. Otherwise Dan, we’ll know you have a reckless disregard for the truth, rather like Steyn.

  1303. #1304 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    they simply cannot admit that Steyn is allowed to disagree

    Blatant strawman, Dan.

    Recklessly sserting professional fraud is not “simply disagreeing”.

  1304. #1305 dean
    United States
    January 22, 2016

    see m2, even your keyboard recognizes that you are a moron using it to post substanceless and fact-free comments.

  1305. #1306 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    #1304 M2

    You should focus on the rest of #1299 as well.

  1306. #1307 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: Is being tied to the environmental lobby any different then ties to the fossil fuel industry?

    Look, you want to argue substance. My point, through this entire thread, is there are scientists, including climate scientists, who claim Mann’s work is dishonest. You can disagree, and those scientists may be wrong.

    But Steyn, as an opinion journalist is entitled to agree with those scientists and disagree with you. This goes back to Rick’s point about opinions.

    You have said there are no scientists out there that claim Mann is dishonest. I have provided many examples. You respond by saying those scientist to don’t count for whatever reason

    That is your opinion. Steyn is entitled to his, and is certainly did not commit libel be voicing his opinions.

    There is a reason so many media groups have joined Steyn’s fights. IF Steyn was such a big threat to “science,” where are all the scientific organizations on Mann’s behalf?

    That’s right, there are none….

  1307. #1308 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    Chris Oneill:

    http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/11/fraudulent-hockey-stick/

    Dr. Curry specifically says (Paraphrasing) that “accusations of data cherry-picking are justified.”

    What is your hang up with the word “fraud.” Read Steyn’s post that Mann is suing over. He says Mann “manipulated” data; i.e., cherry picked it.

    Dr. Curry does say she doesn’t think Mann’s work reaches the level of academic fraud. Neither does steyn. She does say Mann cherry-picked data, which is exactly what Steyn says.

    You can disagree with Curry and think she is deranged. Steyn is free to agree with Curry without being subject to a civil lawsuit.

    You keep moving the goal posts by insisting Curry and others must have used the word fraud, when the subject post doesn’t even use it.

    Are you ready to admit, finally, that Dr. Curry says Mann cherry picked data (or, at least, such accusations against him are fair)?

  1308. #1309 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/11/fraudulent-hockey-stick/

    There you go Chris….Dr. Curry says Mann cherry picked data, which is exactly what Steyn said (I lost a bunch of posts due to computer issues, and don’t have time to repost)

    BBD: You keep using the word fraud, not me. I specifically refer to Steyn’s post, which says Mann manipulated data. Curry says same.

    You can disagree with Curry. Steyn is free to agree with her, without being held liable for liblel.

    SteveP: Steyn didn’t compare Mann to Sandusky, and specifically said he would not have extended the metaphor that far, but he agreed with Simberg’s basic point that PSU’s investigation of Mann must be taken with a giant grain of salt given their dealings with Sandusky.

    It amazes me you guys simply cannot admit some scientists have said Mann manipulated the data, which is what Steyn said.

    It still puzzles me your fixation with the word “fraud,” as Steyn didn’t use it…

  1309. #1310 Michael 2
    January 22, 2016

    Dan says “fixation with the word fraud”

    Red herrings. Cheaper by the pound.

    But yes, the implication seems obvious even if the word wasn’t used. I do not judge either way since it speaks to intention. Hopefully this court case will pry loose correspondence that would settle this once and for all; but I feel that resistance to FOI suggests culpability although it could be something else entirely. What secret must be so carefully guarded?

  1310. #1311 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    Dan:
    “Read Steyn’s post that Mann is suing over. He says Mann “manipulated” data; i.e., cherry picked it. ”

    You mean the one where Steyn writes:
    “Michael Mann was the man behind the fraudulent climate-change “hockey-stick” graph, the very ringmaster of the tree-ring circus. ”
    ?

  1311. #1312 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    #1307 Dan

    BBD: Is being tied to the environmental lobby any different then ties to the fossil fuel industry?

    Who is tied to the environmental lobby? How? Be specific.

    You have said there are no scientists out there that claim Mann is dishonest.

    I’ve said that there’s nobody with relevant domain expertise who makes this claim. Because there isn’t.

    I’ve said that nobody’s demonstrated that Mann is dishonest, because they haven’t.

    I’ve said that Mann’s work is demonstrably sound because it has stood the test of time, because it has.

    I’ve said that you are making false claims because you have been.

    How many more times do I have to repeat all this?

    BBD: You keep using the word fraud, not me

    That’s a lie, Dan. You’ve used it over and over again on this thread. It is your false claim. Here’s just one example, from the beginning:

    [#101 Dan:] If you buy Steyn’s book, the list of those scientists who believe Mann is a joke and (dare I say) a fraud is a long list indeed. Notably, a good portion of that list actually disagrees with Steyn and Curry, et. al, re: climate change. That is, they believe climate change exists, and that humans are playing a big role.

    However, they still think Mann’s research is suspect and (what is that word, again?) fraudulent…

    Would you like a dozen more? Because if you lie about this again, that is what I will post here.

  1312. #1313 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    Michael 2: I agree that the intention of the word fraud was used both in Steyn’s posts, and in statements made by Drs. Curry, Happer, et. al, even if they specific quote used a synonym. If you look up thread, BBD and others have said that Steyn’s reliance was justified if, and only if, a scientist (which meets their subjective criteria for competence and impartiality) specifically said Mann committed “fraud.” Saying he was dishonest, or manipulated data, or cherry picked information, etc., doesn’t count, per the Mann-boys. Steyn is only off the hook if the word fraud was used.

    The other ironic part of their posts is they ignore the fact that Steyn specifically said he would not have used the Sandusky comparison. I agree that was inappropriate of Simberg, and think Mann’s has a stronger case against Simberg and CEI then Steyn and National Review (although, ultimately, I still think Simberg’s comment is protected given Mann’s status as a public person).

    But, the vitriol that the climate lobby exerts when anyone dares say anything negative about Mann (again, I am not even asking them to say Mann’s actually manipulated data, just that others have said so) brings up questions.

    If Mann and his Mann-Boys were serious about being objective, they would give up government grants. That is why this is an issue of public importance. We are trillions of dollars in debt and have a operating deficit in the billions (if not trillions as well; I can’t keep up with the national debt anymore).

    If, as Dr. Curry suggests, we are awarding grants based on studies with cherry-picked data, every tax payer has a skin the game….

  1313. #1314 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: You are doing exactly what Mann does: cherry-picking information. We all used the term “fraud” at the beginning of this thread.

    I then posted, at your request, link after link from various climate scientists (whether or not they have relative domain experience is a matter of opinion), in which the scientists said Mann manipulated data, cherry picked data, was dishonest, etc.

    You responded by saying those quotes didn’t count because they did not specifically use the word fraud (up that to that point, like M2 suggests recently, I was operating on the premise that “fraud” was an all encompassing work meaning dishonest, trickery, deceit, etc).

    I responded by saying your complaint is not only juvenile, it is moot, since Steyn never used the word fraud (at least in the post that gave rise to Mann’s suit). So, if we are going to play these silly word games and ignore clear meanings, Steyn is still good because he actually uses the same language as Curry and others when he says Mann “manipulated the data.”

  1314. #1315 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: I am glad that you have FINALLY admitted there are scientists out there that claim Mann’s work is dishonest, misleading, manipulated the data, cherry picked the data (whatever the phrase de jour is).

    Whether or not those scientists have relative domain experience, and are thus qualified to opine on Mann’s work, is a matter of opinion.

    Remember, the standard is Steyn either knew his statements were false, or recklessly disregarded the truth.

    If Mann’s position is (as you seem to suggest) that Steyn comments recklessly ignored the truth because the scientists he relied on didn’t have the “relevant domain experience” his case is sure to fail.

    There is no case law, anywhere, that says it is reckless to rely on scientists unless they have specific domain experience. Certainly for a layperson, relaying on a professor of atmospheric sciences at Georgia Tech, or a Professor of Physics at Princeton (to name just a few) is not reckless.

    It might have been NEGLIGENT of Steyn to do so, but RECKLESS is very tough burden to meet.

    If you can show me any legal authority that says it is RECKLESS to rely quote merely a climate scientist, but a climate scientist with the relevant domain experience, I would be happy to look at it.

    I won’t hold my breath

  1315. #1316 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: Look at your post #673, in which you say specifically say that, unless a scientist (in this case Rind) specifically used the word “fraud,” then he does not support Steyn’s position.

    That is what I meant by your fixation on the word “fraud;” the notion that unless an authority specifically used the work “fraud,” Steyn’s position is not supported.

    Funny how you do the same thing Mann is accused of doing: manipulating, twisting and (dare I say) torturing data to fit your ends…

  1316. #1317 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    Dan, did you read my comment?

    You might want to do that. I know it makes you look like a real fool, considering it shows Steyn used the word “fraudulent”, but come on, you make the Steyn-boys look like liars.

    But perhaps that is a feature, not a bug:
    http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/11/is-mark-steyn-a-liar/

  1317. #1318 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    Marco, very good, you can read. He describes the hockey graph as “fraudulent” in a descriptive manner, but the specific activity he alleges Mann engaged in is data manipulation.

    Look, I am fine with the word fraud, or manipulated data, or cherry picked data, or misled, etc.

    Again, this was BBD who started this non-sense that referring to an authority who says Mann “cherry-picked” data is not the same as an authority who said Mann’s work was “fraudulent.” See post #673.

    It is a silly word game. Also, if you follow the cites in the Curry article I posted above, there is a good discussion between the distinction between fraud in a scientific sense, and fraud in a legal sense. Legally, the term “fraud” is much greater then scientifically…

    Thus, one can say Mann’s work is fraudulent” without meaning “Mann’s work amounts to academic-fraud” or “research fraud,”

  1318. #1319 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: I am glad that you have FINALLY admitted there are scientists out there that claim Mann’s work is dishonest, misleading, manipulated the data, cherry picked the data (whatever the phrase de jour is).

    Whether or not those scientists have relative domain experience, and are thus qualified to opine on Mann’s work, is a matter of opinion.

    No, it is a matter of fact. No domain expertise = no domain expertise.

    Moreover, none of these claims has been *demonstrated* as I keep pointing out. They are just noise, not actual scientific demonstrations of error, cherry-picking, dishonesty or fraud. They are noise.

    If there were *any* substance to these defamatory claims (irrespective of who made them) then Mann’s work would have been invalidated by subsequent studies and this has not happened.

    You, and everybody else who smears Mann, needs to deal with this inconvenient fact.

  1319. #1320 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    As for dragging up RInd again, let’s revisit my #682:

    Rind [BBD emphasis added]:

    ” … that there is practically no reliable tropical data for most of the time period, and without knowing the tropical sensitivity, we have no way of knowing how cold (or warm) the globe actually got. (And similarly, without knowing the tropical sensitivity for the LGM, we don’t know what it’s global cooling was, and without knowing it for 2xCO2, we don’t know what the future sensitivity would be.) It cannot be reconstructed with any confidence from the extratropical response, even if we were to know that well, because the extratropical response is partly driven by in situ feedbacks, so can occur with a variety of tropical responses…”

    If there is ‘practically no reliable tropical data’ then how can Mann have have cherry-picked data?

    If it’s not there, it cannot be used or not used.

    Rind is another irrelevance, quoted out of context, by people who don’t understand the topic under discussion.

    I repeat: it is *your* claim that Rind accused Mann of ‘cherry-picking’ and it is nonsensical.

    Can we please pause to recollect that MBH98 and 99 were NORTHERN HEMISPHERE reconstructions, not GLOBAL.

    This is all such utter bullshit it beggars belief.

  1320. #1321 Marco
    January 22, 2016

    ” but the specific activity he alleges Mann engaged in is data manipulation. ”

    Go on then, Dan, cite the section of Steyn’s piece, *his words*, where he alleges Mann engaged in data manipulation.

    I know you said you were more diligent in your work, but your performance here is completely farcical. The piece in NR does not even contain the word “manipulation” or any of its derivatives, not even in the section Steyn quotes from Simberg. It is also only in that *quoted* section that the word “data” appears. That is, *at no point* does *Steyn* accuse Mann of manipulating data. What he *does* do is call Mann’s work “fraudulent”. Notably a word you repeatedly denied Steyn used – and now try to disown through other means.

  1321. #1322 RickA
    United States
    January 22, 2016

    Marco #1321:

    I am the the one who first stressed the distinction between the word “fraud” and the word “fraudulent”.

    In response to many other posters sloppily alleging that Steyn accused Mann of being a fraud – I pointed out that Steyn called Mann’s graph fraudulent and did not call Mann (the man) a fraud.

    It is my opinion (which I have expressed several times on this blog) that calling a person a fraud is legally different than calling a specific graph fraudulent.

    The whole “fraud” discussion is a straw man and irrelevant to the lawsuit.

    The lawsuit will focus on the words which were actually used – and will not be about Mann’s vindication by other later climate science.

    But all we have to do is wait and see.

    Once the appeal is over (assuming the case is not dismissed on appeal), we will have some discovery, than summary judgment (a chance for Steyn to win) and if the case is not dismissed on summary judgment – finally trial.

    At the rate the case is going – trial should be in about 2030 (grin).

  1322. #1323 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    Marco: I accidentally said “manipulate” instead of “molested.” Sorry…..

    Look, the point is the same, regardless of word tricks the Mann-boys like to engage: There are scientists who claim Mann was dishonest, molested data, cherry picked data, was fraudulent (in the collegial sense, if not technical academic sense), etc.

    I have shown that over, and over again. Funny thing is Mann is the plaintiff and has the burden of proof, yet none of his Mann-boys have cited any legal analysis by an expert (and there have been many) that contradicts what I have said; i.e., Mann’s case is extremely difficult, and borderline impossible.

    I am still waiting for one link to a constitutional scholar who posits Mann’s case is nearly as strong as people here, like BBD, Chris Oneill, etc., suggest

  1323. #1324 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    RickA: I wholeheartedly agree that there is a difference between saying someone’s work is fraudulent and calling someone a fraud, as there is a distinction between “fraud” in a legal sense and fraud in a academic sense, and that “fraud” has a collegial, everyday meaning (which is what Steyn was using.).

    I also agree that it is irrelevant to the lawsuit. I was merely responding to BBD irrelevant, yet persistent, demand that I provide “proof” that a “climate scientist” has called Mann a fraud.

    It is completely irrelevant, as I stated above, in that Mann’s case still fails even if Steyn can’t produce that evidence (although the inverse is not true; Steyn producing such evidence, as he did with his recent books, will help his case).

    The reason is simple: truth is a defense. Thus, Steyn’s automatically wins if he can show is statements were true. However, Steyn does not automatically lose if it is shown his statements are not true because of the malice requirement

  1324. #1325 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    RickA: I generally agree with your analysis, including later research into Mann’s findings. I will suggest that Mann’s emails, and those of others at CRU such as Phil Jones, etc. are relevant, especially the ones referring to “Mike’s Nature Trick” and “hide the decline.”

    Again, even if it turns out Mann’s research was later determined to be correct, the fact that him and his colleauges used “Mikes Trick” to “hide the decline” and admit doing so in the emails, is probably fatal to Mann’s case…

  1325. #1326 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    BBD: What false claims have I made, specifically? I will admit I mixed up the words “molested” and “manipulated,” but they mean the same thing in the context in which Molested was said in the subject post.

    Please, tell me what comments I made that are false? Especially since I am not making comments; I am repeating the comments of others.

    And your claim that Mann has not been proven to be dishonest is a matter of opinion. Certainly, Dr. Curry disagrees because she says, point blank, Mann was dishonest and mislead her.

    Also, the fact that CRU researchers willing spoke about using “Mike’s Nature Trick” to hide the decline, and there are emails from Mann in which he specifically says he wants to try and minimize evidence contrary to his findings is reason enough for some people to think he is dishonest, regardless of whether his findings “stood the test of time.”

    I am sorry that relatively simple concept is above you. Now go ahead, tell me where I have knowingly made false statements…

    Good luck with that

  1326. #1327 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    http://wizbangblog.com/2015/12/09/michael-manns-assault-on-honest-science/

    Is this good enough? I mean, it is authored by an environmental scientist.

    Again, I have no idea if David Robertson is right. What I do know is that BBD’s claim that Steyn’s statements were reckless because they weren’t backed up by scientists is completely wrong.

    There are scientists who support what Steyn says (actually, it is Steyn agreeing with the scientists), no matter how reluctant the Mann-boys are to admit it…

  1327. #1328 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 22, 2016

    Btw, BBD and Marco respond to your posts. It looks they disappeared. Hopefully it is due to computer issues (but to reiterate, Marco, I confused the words “molest” and “manipulate” in Steyn’s post. I will own up to that, but they mean the same thing in context)

  1328. #1329 Russell
    January 22, 2016

    Dan why don’t you take two glasses of 2003 Chandon Corton Charlemagne
    http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2015/06/mark-steyn-and-grapes-of-wrath.html
    and call us in the morning.

  1329. #1330 BBD
    January 22, 2016

    #1326 Dan

    BBD: What false claims have I made, specifically?

    Here’s one:

    [#654]Concede what point? Steyn may well have looked into, and I presume he did. But I don’t know that. But, even if he did, there are experts out there who support Steyn’s position.

    No, there are no experts out there supporting Steyn’s position. The opposite, in fact. You repeat this claim in various forms endlessly, but remains unsupported.

  1330. #1331 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan: “probably fatal to Mann’s case”

    None of the quotations out of context that you repeat have been fatal to Mann’s status in ANY investigation so far. What makes you think things will suddenly change?

  1331. #1332 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan: “There are scientists who claim ..”

    There are scientists who are crackpots too, especially when making claims outside their area of qualification.

    “Mann’s case is extremely difficult, and borderline impossible.”

    We are still waiting for one link to a constitutional scholar who posits Mann’s case is nearly as extremely difficult and borderline impossible as you suggest. Your claims are just idle wishful thinking of a climate science denialist.

  1332. #1333 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan: “if his statements are not true because of the malice requirement”

    It will be fun to see a justifiable disregard of the truth.

  1333. #1334 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan:

    tell me where I have knowingly made false statements

    OK, you recklessly repeated false statements.

  1334. #1335 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    Dan: “http://wizbangblog.com/2015/12/09/michael-manns-assault-on-honest-science/ Is this good enough?”

    What a joke. Using some crackpot and his blog to justify a claim of journalistic integrity. You just couldn’t make this up.

  1335. #1336 Chris O'Neill
    January 22, 2016

    RickA: “But all we have to do is wait and see.”

    I agree.

  1336. #1337 Marco
    January 23, 2016

    “Marco: I accidentally said “manipulate” instead of “molested.” Sorry…..”

    OMG, you just double down on your dishonesty!
    First you complained that Steyn did not use the word “fraud”, but just said “manipulate”. You then tried to explain the facts I provided away by saying that Steyn *still* just accused Mann of “manipulation”. Now you make it into “molested” (which has a different meaning from “manipulate”, even though I already told you those were NOT STEYN’S OWN WORDS!

  1337. #1338 Marco
    January 23, 2016

    and here is another false claim by Dan:
    “emails from Mann in which he specifically says he wants to try and minimize evidence contrary to his findings”.

    Earlier I pointed out Dan’s false claims about Zorita’s comments supposedly being specifically about Mann.

    In my post above I once again pointed out Dan’s false claim that *Steyn* just said Mann molested data, a claim notably made after I had already pointed out this was said by *Simberg*.

  1338. #1339 Marco
    January 23, 2016

    ” I mean, it is authored by an environmental scientist.”

    Is David Robertson an environmental scientist? Looks to me like Dan confuses the David Robertson on wizbang with the David Robertson here:
    https://davidpj.wordpress.com/about/
    Hint: Australians living in Australia ridiculing Anthony Watts named “David Robertson” are unlikely to be the same “David Robertson” commenting on an American blog amongst others about American politics and frequently referring in a positive way to WUWT.

  1339. #1340 Marco
    January 23, 2016

    “actually, it is Steyn agreeing with the scientists”

    Citing posts written much later, well after Steyn wrote his column, as you did with e.g. David Robertson and Judith Curry is not really making your case for that, Dan. In fact, they may well make the reverse case…

  1340. #1341 Dan
    Law Vegas
    January 23, 2016

    Chris, 1332: I have indeed posted an article from a constituitional scholar saying Mann’s case is difficult if not impossible. It was an article by Prosessor Garber at UC Berkeley Boalt Hall School of Laws consistently ranked in the top 10 of all law schools.

    He says, paraphrasing, that, because Mann is a public figures Steyn can say almost anything he wants, as long as he believes it to be true. He then posits it is extremely difficult for plaintiffs to prove a defendant knew something was false, or that he recklessly disregarded the truth.

    As long as Steyn honestly believes Mann’s stock is fraudulent, and that data was molesred, Mann has no case.

    Really, the only conceivable way Mann can win is if some type of communication is found during discovery, such as an email, in which Steyn admits he knows Mann’s work is legit, but is going to publish an article calling his work fraudulent anyway.

    It is very difficult to prove what someone’s honest belief is. That is why, for example, W. Bush couldn’t she Rather over the military docs, even though Rather continued to say they were legit after many experts said they were forged. As long as Rather truly believed they were authentic, he was free to say so about a public figure.

  1341. #1342 Dan
    January 23, 2016

    Sorry for typos, using my phone.

  1342. #1343 Michael 2
    January 23, 2016

    I suspect one reason for Steyn to “double down” by publishing a book on the topic is exactly to establish the truth of his beliefs, a useful part of a defense against libel.

    The debate is on whether Michael Mann is a public person. Well, he certainly is *now* but possibly only among people interested in the topic. Featuring him on “Interstellar” is a good way to boost name recognition and ensure the jury agrees he is a “public person”.

    So, he’s a public person, Steyn really believes what he says, that leaves only the perfect defense: Truth. That won’t be known until discovery is concluded and that won’t conclude until it starts :-)

  1343. #1344 SteveP
    January 23, 2016

    Can anyone not see that the people who make the most profit from petroleum, coal, and gas do not want the public to in any way entertain the concept that fossil fuels wreck our climate? It seems logical to me that fossil fuel barons would not want the public to realize that alternative energies exist , energies that do not require prostration before dark lords like Dick Cheney, or obligate human sacrifice in wars for other people’s oil.

    National Review was started by an oil millionaire’s son. CEI is basically a political arm of the fossil fuel industry. It sure looks to me like this fossil fuel fraternity encouraged two loathsome, twisted internet loudmouths named Steyn and Simberg to neutralize a noisome scientist who was threatening to gore the holy petroleum cash cow with his observations. I am glad that the scientist under attack has decided to stand his ground and fight back. I love it when bullies get whacked by their victims.

    Over the entire 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, the fossil fuel billionaires have captured more and more money and power ( is there any evidence to dispute this idea?). With the help of bad actors like Ronald “Conoco” Reagan, Dick “Halliburton” Cheney and the Texas Oil Bush family, the petro power folks have been accumulating and concentrating power to levels that are dangerous for Democracy. Stuffing the Supreme Court with idiots and ideologues sympathetic to corporatocracy is but one example of what they have been doing. But you would never guess that any of this is a problem if you based your viewpoint on, say, FOX. BTW, Did you know that FOX has had a 7% ownership by a Saudi oil prince?

    I wonder when the other defendants in this case decided to distance themselves from Steyn. Was it when they realized that his work on the Rush Limbaugh ditto head show created an effective filter to keep right wingers out of the jury pool? Or did they realize that he might be receiving under-the- table payments through pallet purchases of his excruciatingly awful “music” CD? Or perhaps they realized that he had a rabies like disorder which made normal interactions with civilized beings impossible, and positive jury response unlikely. We may never know.

  1344. #1345 Michael 2
    January 23, 2016

    I am fascinated by commentary that consists of asking questions. My answers might not be very useful but I feel bad that nobody answers the questions.

    SteveP asks “Can anyone not see…”

    Yes, but I cannot provide names. With 7 billion people on Earth some of them must not see…

    “…that the people who make the most profit from petroleum, coal, and gas do not want the public to in any way entertain the concept that fossil fuels wreck our climate?”

    That seems like a non-sequitur. You seem to assume Exxon executives care whether I think their fuels wreck the climate. And it isn’t “our” climate and it cannot be wrecked. It can change; that is all it can do.

    They sell gasoline. I buy gasoline. What else matters?

    “It seems logical to me that fossil fuel barons would not want the public to realize that alternative energies exist”

    I suggest “reasonable” rather than “logical”. Logic is a process that appears not to be operational here. You assume that Exxon would not overnight become the leading purveyor of solar panels or windmills if there was money to be made in it.

    Perhaps you could describe these energies. I’ll keep reading…

    “energies that do not require prostration before dark lords like Dick Cheney, or obligate human sacrifice in wars for other people’s oil.”

    Still waiting for the description of these energies… Who is Dick Cheney and why is anyone prostrating before him?

    “National Review was started by an oil millionaire’s son.”

    I’ll try to remember that the next time I play Trivial Pursuit!

    “CEI is basically a political arm of the fossil fuel industry.”

    More trivia. It’s probably important but I don’t yet see the connection.

    “It sure looks to me like this fossil fuel fraternity encouraged two loathsome, twisted internet loudmouths named Steyn and Simberg to neutralize a noisome scientist who was threatening to gore the holy petroleum cash cow with his observations.”

    Say what? Stephen Lewandowsky has something to say about this kind of conspiracist ideation.

    “I am glad that the scientist under attack has decided to stand his ground and fight back. I love it when bullies get whacked by their victims.”

    Perhaps while you are describing alternate energies you can describe this “whacking” you believe has taken place.

    “Over the entire 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, the fossil fuel billionaires have captured more and more money and power”

    I sense a bit of envy.

    “BTW, Did you know that FOX has had a 7% ownership by a Saudi oil prince?”

    I’ll file that next to Al Gore selling “Currents” to Al Jazeera.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/06/al-gore-70-million-current-tv-sale_n_3222504.html

    “I wonder when the other defendants in this case decided to distance themselves from Steyn.”

    It might have been last Tuesday. But really I don’t know. It isn’t that interesting.

    “Was it when they realized that his work on the Rush Limbaugh ditto head show created an effective filter to keep right wingers out of the jury pool?”

    I have no idea. Evidently neither do you.

    “Or did they realize that he might be receiving under-the- table payments through pallet purchases of his excruciatingly awful music CD?”

    Perhaps you are asking these questions on the wrong blog.

    “Or perhaps they realized that he had a rabies like disorder which made normal interactions with civilized beings impossible”

    You could always just ASK one of the persons involved.

    “We may never know.”

    But that does not stop you from guessing and finding other people guilty in advance of any sort of trial.

  1345. #1346 Chris O'Neill
    January 23, 2016

    “one reason for Steyn to “double down” by publishing a book on the topic is exactly to establish the truth of his beliefs”

    Either that or he’s a crackpot who doesn’t know when to give up.

  1346. #1347 dean
    United States
    January 23, 2016

    “one reason for Steyn to “double down” by publishing a book on the topic is exactly to establish the truth of his beliefs”

    Either that or he’s a crackpot who doesn’t know when to give up.

    Especially since publishing a book does not lend any credence to any ideas – “The Bell Curve” got published, after all. Either Steyn’s ideas are true or they are not – and they are not, and publishing them doesn’t change that.

  1347. #1348 Chris O'Neill
    January 23, 2016

    That somewhat dated statement from Professor Farber says:

    “Perhaps I’m naïve, but I assume that they actually did believe what they were saying”

    So Professor Farber does disclaim a complete understanding of the process that led Steyne to make his claim of “fraudulent”. Even if Steyne really did believe his “fraudulent” claim in some way, the good professor failed to mention all those years ago whether someone can have a reckless disregard for the truth and yet still actually believe their claim.

    A lot of time has passed since Professor Farber made his disclaimer-containing statement. I don’t suppose there is anything more up-to-date or definitive and unconditional.

  1348. #1349 Michael 2
    January 23, 2016

    Chris O’Neill writes “I don’t suppose there is anything more up-to-date or definitive and unconditional.”

    Does it matter? Who here has not already judged the matter?

  1349. #1350 Bernard J.
    January 23, 2016

    If Mann and his Mann-Boys…

    Again with the slurs. After a long run of doing so.

    And you had the temerity to complain about other people allegedly making slurs against your own favourite people.

    Hypocrite.

    …were serious about being objective, they would give up government grants. That is why this is an issue of public importance. We are trillions of dollars in debt and have a operating deficit in the billions (if not trillions as well; I can’t keep up with the national debt anymore).

    What bollocks.

    An objective cost-benefit analysis would very quickly demonstrate that there is a net beneficial return to society in understanding and acting on the science of climate change: and certainly more so than there is, say, to globally subsidising the fossil fuel industry to the tune of over a billion dollars per day.

    He says, paraphrasing, that, because Mann is a public figures [sic] Steyn can say almost anything he wants, as long as he believes it to be true.

    But Steyne, as a prominent public commentator himself, also has a duty of care to ensure that his beliefs are true before he puts them into the public sphere. If Steyne is derelict in this duty then he really has no right to be publicly communicating his beliefs as if they are fact, given that such publication risks the defamation of another.

    A right to personal belief does not trump the responsibility to others under the law when speaking that belief. I might have the belief that certain lawyers are mysogynistic narcissists with psychopathicly-stunted capacity for empathy, but I don’t have the right to go accusing particular individuals of such in public without conducting appropriate due diligence to ensure that such potential claims are true.

    He then posits it is extremely difficult for plaintiffs to prove a defendant knew something was false, or that he recklessly disregarded the truth.

    “[P]osits”, eh?

    Posit (vb) …to suggest (something, such as an idea or theory) especially in order to start a discussion

    …to lay down or assume as a fact or principle; postulate.

    Such an action is based on an assumption, which doesn’t mean that it is a demonstrated fact.

    I would suggest that it is rather easy for Mann’s team to demonstrate that Steyne knew that his defamations of Mann were false, partly because there is a wealth of evidence on the internet, going back years, that Steyne was told that he was wrong and to which he has directly or indirectly responded, and partly because it would be a simple exercise to show that any required process of due diligence would quickly reveal that the views that Steyne has expressed are false.

    Steyne’s best defence would seem to rely on him being proved too stupid to grasp the implications of either of these points, and in that case the publishers of his defamations would appear to have been negligent in their own responsibilities for due diligence. And although IANAL, but I doubt that Steyne would win this case with the defence of diminished responsibility as any per se case to establish his intellectual incompetence would lead to a classic Catch 22…

    And RickA, have you managed yet to do a logarithmic fit of the atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature anomaly data? It doesn’t take more than a couple of minutes – at most…

  1350. #1351 Michael 2
    January 23, 2016

    Bernard J writes “have you managed yet to do a logarithmic fit of the atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature anomaly data? It doesn’t take more than a couple of minutes – at most…”

    I had no idea it was this easy! I wonder why NASA needs supercomputers?

  1351. #1352 Chris O'Neill
    January 24, 2016

    m2:

    I wonder why NASA needs supercomputers?

    Of course, m2 thinks you need a supercomputer to run those spreadsheet thingies.

    By the way, I noticed Keith Pickering used his “supercomputer” to do a logarithmic fit of the atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature anomaly data. So you won’t have to crank up your “supercomputer”, m2.

  1352. #1353 Chris O'Neill
    January 24, 2016

    m2:

    Does it matter?

    It doesn’t matter to me whether it matters to you.

  1353. #1354 BBD
    January 24, 2016

    M2, apologist for the corruption of democracy by vested interest.

    Thanks for sharing.

  1354. #1355 Bernard J.
    January 24, 2016

    I had no idea it was this easy! I wonder why NASA needs supercomputers?

    Straw man.

    Sit down and read carefully, Michael 2, whilst I type slowly and use little words so that you have a chance to keep up.

    I didn’t say that a simple logarithmic fit was the be-all and end-all of extrapolation of the data. In fact, if you read my previous posts you’ll see that I explicitly cautioned against unconditional conclusions. However using a “simple” fit can give an indication of where the climate system is going, and Chris O’Neill has linked to Keith Pickering who did a similar (but slightly more complex) thing to what I’ve been trying to elicit from the hapless RickA. I was rather hoping that the Pickering graph would remain hidden for a little while yet, because my next question to RickA was going to touch on what trends over the last 50 or so years indicated, but the cat’s out of the bag now…

    As to the use of “supercomputers”, they’re employed to model weather and climate across the planet, which is a different exercise to calculating global climate sensitivity. Read a few papers on the subject – it’s not actually that difficult to do, depending on which forcing and feedback parameters one includes, and on how they’re quantified. It certainly doesn’t take a supercomputer – even a scientific calculator would sufficent for a competent numerate.

    I’ll repeat that in case you missed it the first time – the use of computers helps to model complex systems in order to accurately understand how weather and climate might emerge in the future (especially at the regional level), based on current trajectories of ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions. My point wasn’t anything so granular: I was simply asking RickA to calculate roughly what the data to date imply about sensitivity, since he was doing a lot of guessing about its (in his opinion) low value, when the trajectory to date implies that he is completely and abjectly incorrect – even with the caveats taken into consideration.

    RickA continues to skirt the elephant in the room, and can’t even work up the limpest of rebuttals even with the help of the confounders at which I hinted order to egg him on to sticking out his neck. If he or you or any of the other denialists on this thread are eventually prepared to address the actual numbers though, we might be able to work out what “facts” you are relying on and how those “facts” compare to the real world.

  1355. #1356 Michael 2
    January 24, 2016

    Bernard J. wrote “However using a simple fit can give an indication of where the climate system is going”

    Yes, until it goes somewhere else.

    “what trends over the last 50 or so years indicated”

    Trends depend on the start and end point chosen. Warmists start the trend at 1970, deniers start at 1940 or 1997.

    “depending on which forcing and feedback parameters one includes, and on how they’re quantified.”

    Well there you go. The whole thing depends on parameters. Mine or yours? 😉

    “It certainly doesn’t take a supercomputer”

    Well that’s a relief!

    “even a scientific calculator would sufficient for a competent numerate.”

    Now I see the problem. Where’s my calculator?

    “I was simply asking RickA to calculate roughly what the data to date imply about sensitivity, since he was doing a lot of guessing about its (in his opinion) low value, when the trajectory to date implies that he is completely and abjectly incorrect”

    The data implies nothing to me about “sensitivity” as too many independent variables exist.

    “you or any of the other denialists on this thread are eventually prepared to address the actual numbers though”

    Umm, what actual numbers? Anyway, what’s the point of being a denialist if I just add to the clutter my own parameters and computations?

    Of course, I might not actually be a denialist but it suits your purpose to label me so. Labeling reveals your motivation for being here.

    Furthermore, I am under no burden to provide numbers. If you want my money, you provide the numbers, and when 97 percent of all scientists everywhere agree on the parameters then maybe the science is settled.

  1356. #1357 BBD
    January 24, 2016

    M2

    Yes, until it goes somewhere else.

    That’s not going to happen while CO2 forcing continues to increase, nor for a long time afterwards. The multidecadal / centennial trend will always be upward.

    “what trends over the last 50 or so years indicated”

    Trends depend on the start and end point chosen. Warmists start the trend at 1970, deniers start at 1940 or 1997.

    But *only* contrarians cherry-pick the 1998 EN temperature spike as the start point because only contrarians are trying to paint a misleading picture of the rate of warming. Trends also depend on the length of time selected since natural variability overprints the forced trend for periods shorter than about 20 years. Only contrarians use short periods because doing so makes it possible to misrepresent the rate of warming. Global average temperatures also respond to the rate of forcing change which increased considerably over the second half of the C20th, which is why contrarians sometimes use a longer time-series. It’s all about lying with graphs.

    The data implies nothing to me about “sensitivity” as too many independent variables exist.

    And what might they be, M2?

  1357. #1358 SteveP
    January 24, 2016

    Michael Mann made an observation to the affect that that the widths of the growth rings of TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE TREES strongly suggest that the climate of Mother Earth has been rapidly warming since the industrial age. I happen to believe that all, or nearly all subsequent analyses by competent scientists have confirmed Mann’s observation. . Mark Steyn ( Music Major) , Rand Simberg (CEI Scholar, aka Oxymoron) , The National Review ( Oil Millionaire Boys Club) , and the Competitive Enterprise Institute ( Oil Billionaires Boys Club) all had a hand in viciously vilifying Michael Man for making this observation.

    Michael Mann subsequently sued the aforementioned asshats.

    As outside observers to this chain of events, we can speculate until the cows come home about what his motivations were, and about what the motivations of team Steyn, Simberg, Nat Rev, and CEI were, and about whether or not Mann will prevail in a court of law. And those are interesting exercises. But whether or not Mann prevails will not much affect the change in the atmospheric heat equilibrium that is taking place 24/7, all . because of the new and improved, steadily increasing, human adjusted levels of greenhouse gases. ( Note to conservatives: The sun always shines on half the Earth, and carbon dioxide absorbs and emits infrared at night too.)

    In the mean time, many of us who have life experiences that include reality testing of the properties of materials, including carbon dioxide, recognize that the human race has a very interesting climate change disaster sneaking up on it, and that ignorant asshats of the Steyn and Simberg mold, and their supporting minions, are stifling thoughtful analysis of a potentially civilization ending problem.

    So there you go. If you aren’t thinking about infrared photons, you probably have no idea what is going on here. Have a nice day. While it is still possible to have a nice day.

  1358. #1359 Michael 2
    January 24, 2016

    SteveP “Note to conservatives: The sun always shines on half the Earth, and carbon dioxide absorbs and emits infrared at night too.”

    I had no idea!

    I suspect you might overestimate CO2’s emission of infrared at lower altitudes.

    “If you aren’t thinking about infrared photons, you probably have no idea what is going on here.”

    Sounds a bit like a Jaden tweet.

  1359. #1360 BBD
    January 24, 2016

    The data implies nothing to me about “sensitivity” as too many independent variables exist.

    Nothing at all? That’s a strong claim, especially given the simple but informative calculation done by Keith Pickering and linked by Chris O’Neill at #1352.

    Here’s another simple but informative calculation:

    ΔT = S ln(CO2/CO2(t=1750))/ln2

    Where:
    ΔT = new equilibrium surface temperature
    T = pre-industrial temperature (~1750CE)
    S = equilibrium sensitivity best estimate
    CO2 = future atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)
    CO2 (t=1750) = pre-industrial CO2 concentration (280ppm)

    Let’s plug in current CO2 at 400ppm CO2 and the canonical value for ECS of 3C per doubling:

    ΔT = 3ln(400/280)/ln(2) = ~ 1.5C at equilibrium

    TCR is generally though to be about 60% of the ECS, so:

    1.5C x 60% = 0.9C

    Temperature increase since pre-industrial times?

    ~1C.

    Spooky, isn’t it?

  1360. #1361 Desertphile
    January 24, 2016

    BBD: “Spooky, isn’t it?”

    Even the laws of physics are in on the conspiracy!

  1361. #1362 Michael 2
    January 24, 2016

    I understand things well. But understanding is not equivalent to being correct. Here is a comment I have posted (well, we’ll see if it shows up) on the Air Vent. You can decide if I am a red denier, blue denier, green denier, white denier. I propose this as a demonstration that your thinking is binary, either I accept your belief system top to bottom, or I am a denier and opposed to you top to bottom. The possibility that various people can accept various parts (cafeteria believers) is difficult to deal with on an emotional level.

    I appreciate the formula you have offered. It may even be approximately correct, allowing for “S equilibrium sensitivity best estimate” existing in some range.

    itsnotco2 writes “Suggest that, if an electric bar radiator is raising the temperature of an object to 350K, then, if there were sixteen such radiators and we add all the flux, Stefan Boltzmann calculations would give a temperature of 700K. Ask if they think that would happen. Assuming “no” then ask why they think they can add solar radiation and back radiation”

    I am not nearly the expert you are, but I have spent plenty of time in cold places (Alaska, Iceland) where I would much rather have 16 radiators rather than just one. The assumption here is that a hot radiator is emitting in all directions and I intercept only a small portion. 16 small portions of each radiator provides me with much more heat than just one radiator.

    What my body intercepts doesn’t have a temperature; just a flow of photons. It becomes temperature once absorbed and excites the atoms of my skin which are very happy with it. 16 such flows will make me warmer than just one where the heat sources are not in contact with the destination object. Whether it is 16 times warmer is less certain because my own body is a radiator and as I warm up, I increase my radiation dramatically (fourth power of temperature, more or less).

    Since a molecule or atom has no idea from what direction a photon or phonon of energy has just arrived, downward traveling photons/phonons must be accepted the same as upward traveling photons/phonons. Heat only travels from hot to cold, photons travel from excited atoms to whatever ends up capturing them. In other words, some photons are going against the direction of heat flow, because heat is not photons; it is the net effect of those photons and phonons. Hot source emits many photons in all direction, including a few to the cold source. The cold source is also emitting some photons, but not many and on average at a longer wavelength.

    Now if your hot radiator was in contact with the heated object, such that the radiator was 350 degrees and so was the object, then adding more radiators also in contact will have no effect on the object since their mutual exchange of energy via phonons will be in equilibrium. With 16 radiators in contact, everything will be at 350 degrees but at the points of contact will exist quite a lot of activity.

  1362. #1363 BBD
    January 24, 2016

    Desertphile

    Even the laws of physics are in on the conspiracy!

    Bought and paid for. This one goes right to the top. Thank God for the courage and wealth of a select band of hard-headed businessmen. Their tireless efforts to improve democracy are all that stands between us and world socialism.

  1363. #1364 Chris O'Neill
    January 24, 2016

    m2:

    deniers start at 1940 or 1997

    Those don’t work either because of the very statistically significant warming since 1940 and the statistically significant warming since 1997 in the surface thermometer data.

    No, what denialists insist on these days is the satellite radio reception from hundreds of kilometres above the atmosphere that is used to infer a weighted average temperature mainly covering the bottom 10 kilometres of the atmosphere. One of the benefits of this from a global warming denialist’s point of view is the high level of noisiness in the resulting estimate which makes it very difficult to establish statistical significance. Uncertainty is a favourite objective of global warming denialists, hence their preference for highly uncertain (satellite) data.

  1364. #1365 dean
    United States
    January 24, 2016

    The level of assuredness denialists have in the combination of their ignorance and refusal to accept that what they say is pure crap (as demonstrated in 1362) is astounding.

  1365. #1366 dean
    United States
    January 25, 2016

    “I understand things well.:

    It’s rather clear you don’t, especially since your long-winded comments about science boil down to “it doesn’t matter that the science indicates x, and researchers agree on that, if I believe y my interpretation is just as correct.”

  1366. #1367 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    Dean wrote “[you believe] it doesn’t matter that the science indicates x, and researchers agree on that, if I believe y my interpretation is just as correct.”

    That is a pretty good summary. Science has no power to indicate X. People indicate X.

    But if I believe Y, well then by definition I elevate that over X.

    It is not clear to me that you or any other person here differs in that regard.

    Everything is ultimately belief. Can you think of an article of science you do not believe? Probably not; what will be less obvious is that you label your beliefs “science” and your disbeliefs something else.

    Do you believe in Dark Matter? If so, why; if not, why not?

    Do you believe in neutrinos? If so, why; if not, why not?

    Have you ever seen one? Felt one? Smelled one? Probably not. So you bury a huge big pile of iron plates with scintillation counters down in an abandoned iron mine and call it a neutrino detector. That’s mega-expensive.

    Do I believe they detected neutrinos? Well, yes and no. The neutrino itself is not exactly detectable. What is detected are decay particles causing tiny splashes of light in the scintillation plastic.

    So I provisionally accept many claims. That seems to be where I differ from you and BBD. You buy into a claim hook, line and sinker, no skepticism; and yet you are selective about which science bits you accept, which topics interest you.

    Not one responder commented on G not being 8.8. That is a science bit that does not interest you.

    I am interested in a wide variety of science bits. Consequently I am less expert at most of them while yet being familiar with many. But do not suppose that the strength of your belief is, by itself, enough to make me also believe.

  1367. #1368 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    So M2 completely ignores #1357 and #1359, and instead we get this:

    I suspect you might overestimate CO2’s emission of infrared at lower altitudes.

    And this:

    The possibility that various people can accept various parts (cafeteria believers) is difficult to deal with on an emotional level.

    And then we are subjected to numerous paragraphs of irrelevance cross-posted from another blog.

    What can one say? Perhaps this:

    – you can’t cherry-pick which bits of science you believe in.

    – your elevation of personal opinion over expert knowledge is absurd.

    – implying that the radiative transfer equations are wrong is risible.

    – blanking inconvenient comments and effortfully changing topic is a hallmark of denialism.

  1368. #1369 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    BBD; I am starting to appreciate your writing. You at least have a point, an agenda, occasionally mentioning something you wish done or not done.

    “you can’t cherry-pick which bits of science you believe in.”

    Sure I can. So do you. You simply designate as “science” that which you believe, and that which you do not believe is not science.

    “your elevation of personal opinion over expert knowledge is absurd.”

    I believe all people do this. All people. But that might be why I do not grok the left, who elevates someone else’s opinion over one’s own. The magic is in choosing who to dominate your opinions.

    “implying that the radiative transfer equations are wrong is risible.”

    Hooray for risible. I’ll look it up later. Once I understand them I will be more explicit. I have said nothing about radiative transfer equations and, it appears, neither have you. Equations do not concern me. Actual physical behavior is more interesting.

    “blanking inconvenient comments and effortfully changing topic is a hallmark of denialism.”

    Hooray for denialism. I don’t have power to blank inconvenient comments; changing topic seems not to be that difficult.

    This was an exercise to illustrate to the world, or such as comes here, as stated in my comment that you are a binary thinker; that you require friends and enemies and simplify not only your world but theirs to make it so.

    It is not about science to you, either. It is about friend versus foe. You have many foes which you have created (straw-foes), and not many friends.

    I can accept science well-presented; but _I_ will decide what I believe and perhaps someday you will do likewise.

  1369. #1370 SteveP
    January 25, 2016

    So oil state Senator T. Cruz brings a loud mouthed conservative audio torturer and political theater specialist named Mark Steyn to testify at a Senate hearing titled “Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate.” The Democrats only bring Rear Admiral David W. Titley, USN (Ret), nationally known expert in the field of climate. “Dr. Titley holds a Bachelor of Science in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University. From the Naval Postgraduate School, he earned a Master of Science in meteorology and physical oceanography, and a Ph.D. in meteorology.” Not exactly a slouch when it comes to climate.

    So the arrogant Senator Cruz and the arrogant bloviator made quite a spectacle of themselves, getting just about every significant aspect of science they touched wrong. Cruz showed little deference to the Dr. and his expertise and instead, Cruz bloviated like the gasbag that he is; his whiny high pitched voice reminds me of the tricks you can do with the air escaping from a rubber ballon. Anyway, no wonder Cruz is the most hated man in the US Senate. Sadly, this is what the GOP has come to. A totally owned extension of the energy industry.

    Meanwhile, a massive record breaking winter storm conspired with a slowdown in the Gulf Stream, Greenland and Antarctic melt waters, el Nino, slush clogged storm drains, and a full Wolf Moon to put another chunk of New Jersey real estate temporarily under the Atlantic Ocean and under the jurisdiction of Governor Neptune. New Jersey Governator Chris Christie does not think that human aided global warming is catastrophic however, despite the brief loss of territory to the terrorist Ocean front. Christie is cagey, though, and I suspect that he may simply be considering taking advantage of this current trend in flooded housing to rebrand his state. Maybe call it New Atlantis, rename the capital to New Venice, and change the state nickname to The Submarine State.

    Actually, Governor Neptune would be a great nickname for Christie.

  1370. #1371 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    SteveP — TL;DR. Was there a point in all that bloviating?

  1371. #1372 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    Bernard J, #1348: That is great that you think Steyn has a “duty” to know what says is true before he puts it into the public domain. Too bad for you, though, that you don’t get to make up the laws.

    And yes, you absolutely could say that you think a lawyer is misogynistic, dishonest, cheater, or whatever else you think is true IF, and here is the kicker, that lawyer you are speaking about is a public figure.

    I get it. You disagree with the public person/private person distinction, and the different duties owed to each. Again, if you don’t like, become a lawyer, take a libel case through trial, appeal to the circuit appellate court (if they take the appeal), appeal again to the Supreme Court (and again hope the grant cert), and then convince of 5 of the justices that we should do away with that distinction. Until then, unfortunately, your opinions on what someone’s duty should be doesn’t really matter.

    Your synopsis of the duties in libel cases, as it applies to private persons, is more or less accurate. However, as has been discussed on this board, via links to various legal authority, and stated by Prof. Farber in his learned opinion as a constitutional expert, Steyn’s speech is most likely protected.

    Of course, that can change depending on the evidence adduced during discovery. But, again, as the good professor states (know you don’t like the word posit), it is very difficult to prove (and Mann has the burden of proof) that someone doesn’t actually mean what he says.

    As for “reckless disregard” that is a high standard. It is not merely negligence. Think of the difference between causing an accident, and being drunk and causing an automobile accident. Two very different things.

    That is why Steyn published a book of scientists who have stated Mann is dishonest (which he titled Vol. I, and has said there will be a Vol. II). Now, you can think it is negligent to rely on a climate scientist who is a tenured prof at are respected university, but doesn’t have relevant domain experience. And maybe it is “negligent.” to do so. But it is certainly not reckless.

    If you disagree, link to some legal authority, or to a law review article or blog by a con law professor, who, like Farber does, analyzes the facts of this case and applies it to the current state of the law.

    I would be curious to see if you can find anything suggesting Mann has a strong case. This case has, after all, drawn a lot of publicity and is well-commented on.

    If Mann’s case is as strong as you say it should be easy to find a legal scholar backing you up.

    Also, if there is so much evidence out there that Steyn was sent info “proving” he is wrong, link to it. Also, link to your evidence that Steyn actually read the information, disagreed with it, and then decided to go ahead with his post.

    There is, on record, a post from Dr. Curry (you may think she is deranged, or doesn’t have relevant domain experience, but she is a climate scientist at a respected university who has testified before congress on climate change) saying Mann’s hockey stick was dishonest. Steyn is free, in our great democratic republic, to believe her and voice his opinion.

  1372. #1373 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    M2

    Sure I can. So do you. You simply designate as “science” that which you believe, and that which you do not believe is not science.

    No, that is entirely false. Robust results endure the conflict of ideas and everything else does not. Over time a consilience of evidence emerges and a scientific consensus arises. One can choose do deny the existence or validity of this consensus, but it is an act of illogic to do so. Acceptance is the only logically consistent position.

    I believe all people do this.

    You are mistaken, at least as far as your claims about me and science are concerned. Therefore a strawman mixed with a bit of mind-reading.

    Equations do not concern me. Actual physical behavior is more interesting.

    This is particularly idiotic. Science seeks to explain physical behavior by describing it, often through formalisms.

    Hooray for denialism. I don’t have power to blank inconvenient comments

    Just dishonesty upon dishonesty at this point; you disgrace yourself.

    It is not about science to you, either. It is about friend versus foe.

    It’s about getting at the truth.

    I can accept science well-presented; but _I_ will decide what I believe

    This describes but does not excuse your denialism.

  1373. #1374 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    Actually, that last post, re: Steyn, should read that he was sent information that his opinion was wrong, actually read it, and agreed with the opinion that Mann isn’t dishonest, but went ahead with his blog post anyway.

    If, as Bernard claims, there is plenty of evidence online showing Mann knew he was wrong, link to it (again, not enough that steyn should have known he was wrong, as that is protected speech about a public person)

  1374. #1375 Dan
    January 25, 2016

    Michael 2: Your statement that BBD, among other others, classifies what he believes as “science” and what he doesn’t believe is “not science” is probably the most astute comment on this thread (and, in fairness to BBD, it is not just him. It is most of the posters on this board).

  1375. #1376 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    M2

    I can accept science well-presented; but _I_ will decide what I believe

    This is not acceptable. Surely I cannot be the first person to point out that you are profoundly guilty of the logical fallacy of argument from personal incredulity which is a form of argument from ignorance?

    As such, you are simply wrong. QED.

    In consequence, the only logically consistent response you can make is to acknowledge the logical fallacy, admit the fundamental nature of your error and change your position.

    There’s no getting around logical fallacies while remaining in the conversational game. You have to admit error and alter your position.

  1376. #1377 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    BBD writes

    “Surely I cannot be the first person to point out that you are profoundly guilty of the logical fallacy of argument from personal incredulity which is a form of argument from ignorance?”

    I do not know how to answer that form of statement or question. And don’t call me “Shirley!”

    As to whether you are the first person to accuse me of that particular fallacy, yes. It was on September 9, 2015. That was the first, but still you. This appears to be the second instance.

    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity

    “As such, you are simply wrong.”

    That is bad logic on your part. Neither truth nor falsity can be inferred from bad logic, mine or yours.

    If I have not seen the far side of the moon, and from that declare there is no such thing, I am arguing from my ignorance, but that does not mean there is, or is not, a far side of the moon. Ignorance is not proof of anything.

    I find surprising your weak logic because I generally hold you, and your writing, in high esteem and I appreciate that you are taking quite a bit of time to write to me.

    “There’s no getting around logical fallacies while remaining in the conversational game.”

    Agreed. Logical fallacies exist for good reasons and can be difficult to avoid.

  1377. #1378 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    Dan

    Michael 2: Your statement that BBD, among other others, classifies what he believes as “science” and what he doesn’t believe is “not science” is probably the most astute comment on this thread

    No, it’s just stupid and incorrect. See #1373 and #1376. You are as guilty as M2 of argument from ignorance. So I can quite reasonably ignore everything else you say unless you begin by admitting your logical fallacy and changing your position to eliminate it.

  1378. #1379 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    For BBD but also others.

    I use the word “believe” to indicate acceptance. It has acquired a connotation of falsity, but I do not use it that way.

    Does any science exist (in your awareness) you do not believe? Unlikely; you believe all science.

    Is there anything in your experience that you have chosen to not believe, which can be argued to be scientific? Probably not.

    The observation therefore is that your alignment between what you consider scientific, and what you accept (believe), is perfect, expected, common, normal.

    Is it possible to be wrong? Sure, as a theoretical concept. But in practice? When was the last time you were wrong about anything scientific, and what was it about? That’s a rhetorical question; probably interesting but I’m not trying to pry.

    My daughter conducted a science experiment in school. Her results were unexpected but I did not alter her conclusion. The question was whether ice melting changes its weight. I am really quite sure it does not; it has the same mass before and after melting.

    So she put an ice cube in a zip lock bag, carefully weighed it. When it had melted, weighed it again, and by golly, it had gained a gram or two.

    I recognize the existence of a confounder; the bag of ice condensed moisture on its surface adding to its weight, but the science teacher had not taught any such principle or caution in conducting science.

    So, did she conduct science and was her conclusion correct? I say yes to both; but it was not perfect science and neither is climatology.

  1379. #1380 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    I notice that neither of the contrarians present are going anywhere near the numbers at #1359.

  1380. #1381 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    BBD: re: #1359, you are right, I am not going near that, as I am interested in the legal aspects, not the scientific aspects of this case. You can argue until you are blue in the face that Mann’s hockey stick is correct and honest. However, that makes no difference.

    Legally, the issue is whether Steyn KNEW Mann’s was not dishonest (or he was honest, to avoid the double negative) yet made the statements anyway.

    I notice that I am the only person who has linked to legal authorities, and to scholarly interpretation of said authority, including a specific analysis of the current state of the law as it applies to this case.

    And the fact that you call those who disagree with your scientific opinions “deniers” tends to support M2. Good, competent people can look at the same set of data and reach different conclusions.

    You seem young, based on your comments. As most people in their 20s, you tend to see everything in black and white. Soon you will realize there is a ton of gray in this world.

    Most people, even Steyn, don’t disagree that global warming exists. Some people just happen to think that mankind’s contribution to same is minimal, at best, and that any current climate change is the result of natural climatic variation.

    What is so wrong with a healthy debate?

    It just amazes me that, someone like Dr. Curry, is subject to abhorrent insults, personally and professionally, simply because she thinks factors other then human conduct is primarily responsible for warming.

    What is so wrong with a healthy, vigorous debate?

  1381. #1382 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    BBD: Do you disagree with anything in #1341 or #1372, discussing the legal aspects of Mann v. Steyn?

    If so, what? Please link to legal authority to support your claims.

  1382. #1383 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    Dan

    Only someone in as much trouble as you are would still try to pretend that the sole topic under discussion was still the legal one.

    You seem young, based on your comments. As most people in their 20s, you tend to see everything in black and white.

    This was unwise the first time around. Why do you repeat silliness like this until the hammer comes down? I was going to ignore you but since you insist, you can now quoting me in sufficient detail to support your claim. Fail to back up your words and it’s another demonstration of dishonesty chalked up against you. These are by now so numerous as to be redundant, but we can treat it simply as an exercise in the inevitable. Perhaps, at last, you will learn something.

  1383. #1384 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    Good, competent people can look at the same set of data and reach different conclusions.

    Why has Mann’s work not been overturned then?

    Saying stuff isn’t enough, Dan. You have to back your nonsense up or eat it.

  1384. #1385 dean
    January 25, 2016

    “But if I believe Y, well then by definition I elevate that over X.”

    m2, your comment at 1372 is one of your most asinine – and that is saying something.

    Your point there can be summed up this way: “If I don’t like some scientific result, I can ignore it and believe something else, and I’m right.”

    That’s the same line of crap the anti-vaccination folks, the anti-relativity folks, the anti-germ-theory folks (and others use). Taking that route makes you feel important while it shows you to be a common anti-science clown without using more direct lines of bullshit.
    But you’re still spouting nothing but crap.

  1385. #1386 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    dean “m2, your comment at 1372 is one of your most asinine – and that is saying something.”

    Thanks. I wish I could take credit for trying to be so but it seems when I write plainly it is least appreciated.

    “Your point there can be summed up this way: If I don’t like some scientific result, I can ignore it and believe something else, and I’m right.”

    It can, but only because you just did. I have written nothing about “like” a result. I wrote entirely about “belief”.

    Belief is what happens to an idea in a mind. It means “I accept that it is so”. I believe 2 + 2 = 4; “I accept that it is so.” I do not believe that 2 + 2 = 5; “I do not accept that it is so.”

    I believe G is adequately expressed as 9.81 meters per second per second. When used with the radius and mass of earth, it helps calculate a low earth orbit satellite period as being about 90 minutes. Actual experience with satellites shows this to be so. Since I have some experience with satellites (GPS, ham radio) “I accept that it is so.”

    Claims eventually require actual evidence. I do not see major cities underwater. I do not see polar bears falling from the sky. London has had plenty of snow after a scientist predicted no more snow (Dr. Viner).

    Plain to see what you consider science I do not.

    If you assert 50 or 500 species going extinct every single day, well show me the carcasses. Can you? Of course not, nobody can. Lists of actual extinctions exist. That’s science!

    I would love to see the instruments that measure stuff in ice cores. That’s fascinating stuff. I would almost certainly accept their actual measurements. I love electronic instruments, generally speaking, “I accept that it is so”.

    But none of that is why we blog.

    “That’s the same line of crap the anti-vaccination folks, the anti-relativity folks”

    Well good on them if they are up to my level of sophistication. I was unaware of the existence of anti-relativity folks, beyond E.E. “Doc” Smith, science fiction writer in the early 1900’s. It is interesting to read about space travel where navigation is by slide rules. He foresaw many things but not computers. Anyway, he seems to have been unfamiliar with the speed of light being a limiting factor or the existence of relativity.

    I wonder if the price of bread is affected in any way by one’s opinion on relativity? The Lorentz Transformation is negligible at any speed I will travel in my lifetime.

    “the anti-germ-theory folks”

    I was unaware that the word “theory” was still in use with regard to germs. Interesting.

    “Taking that route makes you feel important”

    And it’s cheap at twice the price!

  1386. #1387 Dan
    January 25, 2016

    Bernard: You say above that Mann can easily show Steyn did not complete “due diligence.” Again, what legal authority do you have that, regarding public persons, someone must complete “due diligence” before making a comment?

  1387. #1388 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    Dan: “I am not interested in the scientific aspects of this case”

    Well not anymore anyway (supposedly).

    “Legally, the issue is whether Steyn KNEW Mann’s was not dishonest”

    No. It’s whether he was reckless.

  1388. #1389 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    “reckless disregard” is potentially a problem for Steyn.

    Proving or asserting reckless disregard suggests that it ought to have been possible for a journalist/pundit type of person to easily obtain the “truth” and chose not to do so. Considering that a great deal of time and effort has been expended over these past 15 years or so trying to confirm or refine this truth, I have a doubt that “truth” is as low-hanging fruit as some think.

    On the other hand, for those that think the truth of it is obvious, then perhaps a reckless disregard accusation will stick. It would not stick with me, but then, I’m not the jury.

  1389. #1390 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 25, 2016

    ————-
    |  M2:
    |  “you can’t cherry-pick which bits of science 
    |  you believe in.”

    |  Sure I can. So do you. You simply designate 
    |  as “science” that which you believe, and that 
    |  which you do not believe is not science.
    ————-

    For M2, science is a disintegrated, POMO smorgasbord of “bits” and assumes that everyone else takes the same approach. This is just about the most immature, shallow and self-indulgent form of dilettantism imaginable.

  1390. #1391 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    I like your style of writing. I haven’t seen your name [Obstreperous Applesauce] much these past few months.

    Smorgasbord is a good description. Seemingly every day hundreds of science papers are published in dozens of journals occasionally with something substantial but, in my opinion, rather more often stuff like the mating habits of a particular kind of moth in Arizona. It is impossible to read all of it or even a tiny fraction.

    So, each person chooses what to notice and it really is a lot like a smorgasbord.

  1391. #1392 Marco
    January 25, 2016

    “What is so wrong with a healthy debate?”
    Dan asks.

    Well, Dan,what *is* a healthy debate? Is calling someone’s work “fraudulent”, even though you do not possess the skills to assess whether it is “healthy”?

    Is it making stuff up and then when this is pointed out, doubling down, like you did about what Steyn had written and what he was being sued over, part of a “healthy debate”?

    Is it people with no relevant expertise making claims that directly contradict the science “a healthy debate”?

    I’d call it ideology trumping reality.

  1392. #1393 Desertphile
    January 25, 2016

    “What is so wrong with a healthy debate?”

    When paranoid conspiracy alarmists make that assertion (under the pretense of “asking a question”), they want people to believe the kooks are not actually lying— they are “debating.”

    The debate ended decades ago, where debates are held: in the science journals, debated by scientists.

  1393. #1394 Ricka
    January 25, 2016

    Marco #1387

    Marco says “Is it people with no relevant expertise making claims that directly contradict the science “a healthy debate”?”

    In America – even people with no relevant expertise get to have and voice their opinion.

    That is what blogging is all about – right?

  1394. #1395 BBD
    January 25, 2016

    Oh look, M2 is ignoring awkward comments again, this time #1376.

    M2 is going to pretend that choosing (from a position of ignorance) which bits of science to deny somehow isn’t a honking great logical fallacy.

    But it is.

    So M2 needs to admit his error and accept that what he is doing is illogical to the point of folly.

    Or M2 will be revealed as entirely dishonest.

  1395. #1396 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    Marco: What did I double down on? I admitted I misread the post, particularly regarding the word “molest.” I also agree that the word fraudulent appears in there.

    No big deal, as it doesn’t change the substance of anything.

    BBD: Pardon me, for think that a blog posted in which Mark Steyn and the DC Appellate court is mentioned in the title would be focused on legal, not scientific issues. Although, I am glad that you now recognize the difference.

    And, it is mildly amusing that you think I just say things without backing them up, when I am the only one who provides any authority for my opinions regarding Mann’s case vs Steyn.

    Many here think Steyn was reckless. Ok, find some authority that states relying on a climate scientist, who might not have specific domain experience, is not only negligent but reckless. This case has generated much publicity. Go find an article, by a legal expert, who opines Mann’s case is strong?

    Good luck with that.

    And BBD, point exactly what I have said in this thread regarding Mann v. Steyn that is wrong. With authority.

    And btw, when you ask why Mann’s work wasn’t overturned, exactly who would “overturn” it? is there some type of all-powerful entity that decides the truth of scientific issues? There might be a consensus, but scientific fact is not decided by consensus.

    Steyn’s position regarding either global warming and/or Mann’s dishonesty might be based on the opinion of a minority of scientists, and it may be based on scientists whose experience is weaker then those who support Mann, but it is not reckless for Steyn to agree those such as Dr. Curry, Happer, et. al.

    If you think it is, find some legal authority.

  1396. #1397 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 25, 2016

    Marco: point out to me where I have “made stuff up.” Again, that is ironic being that I am the only one who posts to legal authority.

    And, yes, calling a public person’s work fraudulent is a healthy debate if you truly believe so. As Rick said, everyone, not only experts, are entitled to first amendment protections and to voice their opinions.

    Also, Steyn would reply that his opinion is based on those who have the skills to make such an assessment, such as those mentioned in his book. YOU might think they are not qualified, but that is your opinion.

    Again, I can’t think of one court, in any jurisdiction in this country, that would not qualify as an expert someone who has testified before congress on the very same subject they are being proffered as an expert in (not to mention the fact that they are a tenured professor of atmospheric sciences at a well-regarded university).

    Maybe the haven’t published on paleoclimatology. But being published is not a pre-requisite to being admitted as an expert under Daubert. If you are going to state that one must be published to be considered an expert, find some legal authority to back it up.

    Lastly, I find your emotional attachment to Mann rather funny. I am obviously a fan of Mark Steyn, as I think he is a talented writer, and I agree with a lot, though not all of what he says. But, even when I disagree, he is still an entertaining read.

    However, if Steyn were to sue Greg Laden of this blog entry (which, if Mann’s case is successful, Steyn would have a case. Being called a racist, simply because he rightly labeled a judge’s experience as landlord-tenant, is surely as bad as being labeled dishonest), I would be the first to say Steyn doesn’t have a case and he should withdraw it.

    I am not emotionally attached to Steyn. I am attached to the first amendment. I do respect Steyn, because he simply linked this article to his webpage, because the whole “racist” dog whistle ideas is absurd. Plus, just like only dogs hear real dog whistles, only racists hear racist dog whistles.

    Looks like Greg Laden is the true racist….

  1397. #1398 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    The comment numbers appear to have been resequenced. I suggest not to use comment numbers since they appear not tightly bound to any particular comment, but instead to quote a bit of context to more accurately find the thing being commented on. My post just before this got a number that put it up in the stack even though I posted it mere seconds ago.

  1398. #1399 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 25, 2016

    ‘Healthy debate’ and ‘legal debate’ are two different issues. Just because they overlap somewhat doesn’t mean they should be conflated–hence the perfectly appropriate terminology ‘climate septic.’

    —–

    Being able to collect bits is not the same as understanding how they go together properly or how they function systemically. (That’s for Dan, who apparently doesn’t believe that M2 is a poe.)

  1399. #1400 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    m2: “Proving or asserting reckless disregard suggests that it ought to have been possible for a journalist/pundit type of person to easily obtain the “truth””

    No. Just because it may not be easy to find out if someone is being fraudulent or not doesn’t mean that accusations of being fraudulent cannot be reckless.

  1400. #1401 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    Dan: “It just amazes me that, someone like Dr. Mann, is subject to abhorrent insults, personally and professionally, simply because he thinks factors of human conduct are primarily responsible for warming.”

    Fixed it for you.

  1401. #1402 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    Dan: “even Steyn, don’t disagree that global warming exists. Some people just happen to think that mankind’s contribution to same is minimal, at best, and that any current climate change is the result of natural climatic variation.”

    What does that have to do with Steyn claiming “the” hockeystick derivation is fraudulent? “The” hockey stick just showed what the climate change was, not what caused it.

  1402. #1403 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Chris O’Neill wrote: “The hockey stick just showed what the climate change was, not what caused it.”

    It didn’t even do that. What exactly did it show? Be scientific.

  1403. #1404 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    m2: “Where’s my calculator?”

    Scientific calculator – supercomputer, they’re all the same to m2.

  1404. #1405 Michael 2
    January 25, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “Scientific calculator – supercomputer, they’re all the same to m2.”

    Whatever a supercomputer can do a calculator can do. It will just take (a lot) longer.

    The younger generation has no sense of wonder they hold in their hand more power than a Honeywell DPS8 mainframe. 20 years ago the entire top floor of a building in Washington DC had a “DASD” farm, 2 terabytes of disk storage. I now put that much in my pocket.

    So yeah, except for scale they are the same. NAND gates, adders, stuff like that.

  1405. #1406 Chris O'Neill
    January 25, 2016

    Dan: “if you follow the cites in the Curry article I posted above, there is a good discussion between the distinction between fraud in a scientific sense, and fraud in a legal sense”

    No thanks. I don’t want to read through crap to get to something that is supposedly worth reading.

  1406. #1407 Bernard J.
    January 26, 2016

    Again, what legal authority do you have that, regarding public persons, someone must complete “due diligence” before making a comment?

    It is inherent in the third step in the procedure for defending against defamation in the case of an ordinary US citizen, and to an extent it may also be inherent in the additional step in the case of a pubic persona where malice or reckless disregard for the truth needs to be demonstrated.

    As has been noted many times above and elsewhere, there are three basic steps for demonstrating libel in the case of an ordinary US citizen. In Mann’s case:

    1) it is a simple matter to prove false the accusations of Mann being a fraud

    2) it is a simple matter to prove that the accusations of fraud have harmed Man’s reputation in the public sphere

    3) given the prominence of Mann’s work and the nature of the global warming issue more generally, it is a simple matter to prove that making public claims of Mann’s alleged fraudulent behaviour was could only occur without “adequate research into the truthfulness of the statement”.

    Many others have already noted that as a consequence of Mann’s public profile (in part created by Steyne’s persecution of Mann…), Mann’s team also needs to demonstrate an intent to do harm or to demonstrate reckless disregard for the truth. You’ve said so yourself. Now, if Steyne wants to claim that he did conduct “adequate research into the truthfulness” of his claims of fraud, then the only way that he could persist with them is with malice or with reckless disregard for the truth – that is, without duty-of-care or due diligence. If Steyne wants to claim that he ignored the best science and only used non-experts in the scientific sense, such as Curry, then he is still providing support for his failure to do “adequate research”. Further, given the number of years that he has persisted with such claims and without apology, he is effectively either reinforcing his lack of due diligence/duty-of-care, as well as again providing evidence of malice and/or reckless disregard for the truth.

  1407. #1408 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    What a fascinating fantasy world I see here.

    Bernard J. writes:

    1) it is a simple matter to prove false the accusations of Mann being a fraud

    I look forward to someday seeing that proof.

    2) it is a simple matter to prove that the accusations of fraud have harmed Man’s reputation in the public sphere

    I look forward to someday seeing evidence of this claim. For now, MM is gainfully employed and world famous.

    3) given the prominence of Mann’s work and the nature of the global warming issue more generally, it is a simple matter to prove that making public claims of Mann’s alleged fraudulent behaviour was could only occur without “adequate research into the truthfulness of the statement”.

    Agreed. Adequate research seems to require FOI response which was denied. So the courts will try to pry loose the “adequate research”.

    However, the Cliimategate emails are, to me, sufficient indication of unscientific behavior. Those emails might not be admitted as prosecution but very likely will be admitted as defense as it is reasonable to do so; speaking to motivation.

  1408. #1409 Bernard J.
    January 26, 2016

    …Steyn’s speech is most likely protected.

    As a ‘journalist’ Steyne’s comments are only given “qualified privilege” at best. Qualified privilege does not apply to malicious intent, and given that the “repetition of discredited statement” can probably be easily demonstrated in Mann’s case, it may be difficult for him to escape a conclusion of malicious intent.

    Of course it’s not up to me or anyone else on this thread to make that case – that’s why Mann has a legal team. That team might be interested to read this thread though, because Dan, RickA and others seem happy to present Steyne’s best defence options – such as they are – and thus to prepare Mann’s team for whatever approach Styne might use in his pro se defence.

  1409. #1410 BBD
    January 26, 2016

    Dan

    Still desperately pretending that this is only about Mann and not your endless peddling this thread? Why bother?

    And, it is mildly amusing that you think I just say things without backing them up

    You have *never* answered the question: if Mann’s work was fraudulent, why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

    We need to address this before we can move on to its implications.

    But you refuse to back up your claims and we both know why.

    Next, where are the quotes from my commentary that support your claim that I am in my 20s? I asked you to back up your assertions at #1383. Instead of quotes, you provide a further incorrect assertion that you back things up. Seems to me that you are a liar, Dan.

    Which brings us back to #1330 and your peddling of denier memes while dishonestly pretenting only to speak of the law. As I keep reminding you, *this* is the problem I have with your conduct on this thread.

    There really are no experts out there who support Steyn’s position. Nary a one. On the contrary, when the experts produce millennial temperature reconstructions, they essentially validate Mann’s not-fraudulent, not-dishonest work.

    But on you go, making the false and *unsupported* claim that there are ‘experts’ who back up Steyn while pretending only to be discussing the law.

    How did you imagine you would get away with this nonsense? It’s as if you think we are as stupid as you are.

  1410. #1411 Marco
    January 26, 2016

    “Marco: What did I double down on? I admitted I misread the post, particularly regarding the word “molest.” I also agree that the word fraudulent appears in there.

    No big deal, as it doesn’t change the substance of anything. ”

    Yes it does, Dan. First, it took me several comments before you admitted that Steyn had indeed called Mann’s work “fraudulent”. Then you said it didn’t matter, because Steyn had just said Mann had “manipulated” data. It took some more tries for you to admit that Steyn actually had not said “manipulated”, but I wonder how many more tries I need to get it into your head that *Steyn* did not use the word *molested* either! And you doubled down on the claim that Steyn had just said “manipulated” (OK, OK; “molested”) *after* I already had pointed out that *Steyn* had not said this – it was a quote from Simberg in which “molested” (and “tortured”) were used.

    You also keep on claiming things about what Zorita said, even though none of your sources show Zorita said these things about Mann. You literally made up that Zorita wanted Mann removed from the IPCC because his data was supposedly questionable and because he supposedly bullied others. It is theoretically possible that Zorita thinks this, but none of the sources you use provide any evidence for this line of thinking on Zorita’s part.

    You have also been repeatedly asked to show any quotes from scientists that say Mann’s work is *fraudulent*. Instead you just say that “dishonest” is enough, even though it isn’t and also because many of the provided quotes don’t even suggest *that*. Still, you prefer to ignore that and double down: “Also, Steyn would reply that his opinion is based on those who have the skills to make such an assessment, such as those mentioned in his book. YOU might think they are not qualified, but that is your opinion.”

    Most hilarious, and something you also frequently offer us as evidence (e.g. your reference to Curry’s piece), is that several of these quotes come from AFTER Steyn called Mann’s work fraudulent. And thus Steyn could not have based his opinion on those supposedly qualified people, because *he could not have known their opinion at the time he wrote down his own*!

    BTW, have you already apologized to David Robertson, the Australian ‘environmental scientist’, for mistaking him for some blogger on a right-wing American blog?

  1411. #1412 Marco
    January 26, 2016

    “Lastly, I find your emotional attachment to Mann rather funny. ”

    See, even more stuff you just make up. I have no emotional attachment to Mann. I do have an emotional attachment to facts, being a scientist and all that stuff you people don’t really like. If you call someone’s work fraudulent, you better provide the evidence it is fraudulent. Excuses like “but others said the same” (which you offer as an argument for Steyn to use) don’t cut it with me, in particular if it turns out that those others either did not say that at all, at the very, very best made an implication that could be construed as possibly suggesting they disagreed with something Mann did, or more direct allegations frequently coming from those who not only do not have the expertise to even judge what is fraudulent, but also have an ideological reason to oppose the outcome of research like that of Mann.

    I would be equally fierce going after people who say Roy Spencer’s research is fraudulent without clear evidence, even though there is no doubt within the scientific community there are multiple questionable issues with Spencer’s work, and the fact that many consider him a douchebag. I would also be hesitant in using the word “dishonest”, without clear evidence that he did certain things on purpose, knowing they are inappropriate or just wrong.

    But go ahead, be like so many other Steyn fans: dismiss the evidence, ideology trumps facts anyway.

  1412. #1413 Marco
    January 26, 2016

    “In America – even people with no relevant expertise get to have and voice their opinion.

    That is what blogging is all about – right?”

    Having and voicing an opinion is not a debate as such, and certainly is still miles away from being a *healthy* debate.

  1413. #1414 dean
    United States
    January 26, 2016

    “Whatever a supercomputer can do a calculator can do. ”

    Blatant stupidity thy name is m2.

  1414. #1415 SteveP
    January 26, 2016

    Michael2 writes…”itsnotco2 writes “Suggest that, if an electric bar radiator is raising the temperature of an object to 350K, then, if there were sixteen such radiators and we add all the flux, Stefan Boltzmann calculations would give a temperature of 700K. Ask if they think that would happen. Assuming “no” then ask why they think they can add solar radiation and back radiation”

    You are trying to say something related to the Stefan-Boltzmann Constant ( radiation varying as the fourth power of the temperature.) What exactly?

    Since big names in the energy and science communities like Exxon Mobil concede that global warming is real and that they are contributing to it, the dogged loyalty of the Mark Steyn’s and the denialists of the world to the denial of human aided climate change is an interesting phenomenon. Is this simply meme inertia,? Or are there other forces driving the persistence of passionate and irrational skepticism?

    While skepticism of an unverified hypothesis is wise, dogged persistence of denial in the face of ever mounting evidence supporting that hypothesis may not be wise. Worse, it may be evidence of emotional bias against reality.

  1415. #1416 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    SteveP “You are trying to say something related to the Stefan-Boltzmann Constant (radiation varying as the fourth power of the temperature.) What exactly?”

    No. In fact, I didn’t know it existed as a constant.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_constant

    So I have learned something today. Thank you!

    “Since big names in the energy and science communities like Exxon Mobil concede that global warming is real and that they are contributing to it”

    Few there are that say otherwise.

    “the dogged loyalty of the Mark Steyn’s and the denialists of the world to the denial of human aided climate change is an interesting phenomenon.”

    Yes. All dogged loyalties, including yours and mine, are interesting as meta-phenomena.

    “Is this simply meme inertia?”

    In part, likely.

    “Or are there other forces driving the persistence of passionate and irrational skepticism?”

    That too; but not just driving passionate and irrational skepticism; passionate and irrational scientism falls in this category.

    “Worse, it may be evidence of emotional bias against reality.”

    Indeed.

  1416. #1417 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    m2: “a supercomputer can do a calculator can do. It will just take (a lot) longer.”

    Yeah, it just didn’t take very long to do this without using a supercomputer, contrary to your suggestion of needing a supercomputer.

  1417. #1418 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “contrary to your suggestion of needing a supercomputer.”

    NASA wishes to have a supercomputer. I cannot afford the electricity for it.

    http://www.nas.nasa.gov/hecc/resources/pleiades.html

    163 racks (11,312 nodes)
    5.34 Pflop/s peak cluster
    4.09 Pflop/s LINPACK rating (#11 on July 2015 TOP500 list)
    132 Tflop/s HPCG rating (#5 on July 2015 HPCG list)
    Total CPU cores: 211,872
    Total memory: 724 TB

    And the whole thing runs Linux!

    Obviously they are libertarians.

  1418. #1419 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 26, 2016

    SteveP,

    They are heavily invested in a culture war. The object is to F things up for the other ‘side’. That is the only reality that matters to them. It has nothing to do with the science of climate change.
    What we’re talking about tIhe psychology of war in a closed system of thought.

    IOW, it’s better to die than concede an inch.

  1419. #1420 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    m2: “NASA wishes to have a supercomputer.”

    So what? It has nothing to do with what Bernard J was talking about.

  1420. #1421 BBD
    January 26, 2016

    M2

    When are you going to acknowledge your logical fallacy of argument from ignorance?

    When are you going to admit that arguments based on logical fallacies are void?

    When are you going to modify your position to remove the logical fallacy from its core?

    Why am I having to labour this point with you?

    Where is your integrity?

  1421. #1422 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    BBD “M2: When are you going to acknowledge your logical fallacy of argument from ignorance?”

    It is not on my calendar. If it is sufficiently important to you; please identify my argument that you believe suffers from this fallacy.

    “When are you going to admit that arguments based on logical fallacies are void?”

    That seems unlikely. I should not deny myself something that clearly has utility particularly to People of the Left.

    “When are you going to modify your position to remove the logical fallacy from its core?”

    I do not understand your question. I think you are proposing that my position (my view, thoughts, beliefs) on related matters are grounded on a fallacy. That seems unlikely. It is more likely that wrong world views are based on error rather than fallacy. I am probably the most logical minded person here; very unlikely to base my logic on fallacy; but it is certainly possible to be based on error or inadequate information.

    “Why am I having to labour this point with you?”

    George Orwell explains it:

    “How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?”

    Winston thought. “By making him suffer,” he said.

    “Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own?”

    “Where is your integrity?”

    In my heart and mind.

  1422. #1423 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    “It has nothing to do with what Bernard J was talking about.”

    Oh, I forget. It’s just another one of m2’s non-sequiturs, his favourite type of argument.

  1423. #1424 RickA
    United States
    January 26, 2016

    This thread is now over 1420 comments.

    We have covered a lot of ground.

    I think we can all agree on one thing.

    We will have to wait to see how Mann vs. Steyn turns out.

  1424. #1425 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 26, 2016

    Marco, 1409: I did admit I glanced over steyn’s use of the word fraudulent. I read hundreds of pages per day in case law, briefs, correspondence. I simply forget, and when I double checked I acknowledged, but also said it makes no difference at the end of the day.

    You and BBD are the same: You keep spouting off all these legal conclusions without providing authority (while simultaneously demanding authority, or citations, from others).

    What legal authority do you have that Steyn libeled Mann, or his comments were reckless if not a professional scientist didn’t use the exact same phrase?

    What legal authority do you have that “fraudulent” means something different then “dishonest.”

    What legal authority do you have that comments are reckless if based on the comments of a scientist with the exact same “domain experience.”

    And, before you ask for my legal authority, let me answer. First, Mann has the burden of proof, not steyn. Second, I already provided legal authority, including an expert analysis in which a con law scholar applies the facts of Mann v. Steyn to the current state of libel law and concludes Mann’s case is weak.

    It really is funny that you, BBD, Chris, demand all this authority regarding STeyn’s comments, but refuse to provide any authority to back up your legal analysis (i.e., Chris stating what he “thinks” the duty Steyn had before making his comments without, again, linking to any case law, legal opinions, blogs, treatises, law review articles, etc., to support his position about what STeyn’s obligation was prior to making the comments. In fact, none of you have even provided a link defining the term “reckless” in the legal sense, you all of you are quick to say “Steyn was reckless”

    At least I can admit it when I am not an expert in any area and defer to others who are, such as scientific issues.

    All I ask is that you defer to the legal experts which I have provided, or provide your own legal experts

  1425. #1426 Dan
    January 26, 2016

    Marco: As for those comments from scientists coming after Steyn’s comments (which you say is “most hilarious), again, please provide any legal authority which holds Steyn’s comments were reckless unless a competent scientist said it before Steyn.

    Stated differently, please provide any legal authority that, in libel law, one’s comments are “reckless” unless based on certain authority.,

    Perhaps Steyn drew his conclusion from the emails containing the phrases “Mike’s Nature Trick,” and “Hide the Decline.” The fact that Curry makes those comments after Steyn, assuming such is necessary, is relevant because it would show Steyn’s interpretation of the emails is accurate (again, assuming Steyn needs scientific back up in the first place, which has not been demonstrated by you or anyone else).

    That is great that you would be offended by someone calling Dr. Spencer’s work “fraudulent.” Unfortunately, “Marco being offended” is the not the definition of libel.

    I will ask again….please link to any legal references (preferably a scholarly article from a con law expert who has reviewed the facts of the case and agrees with your conclusions).

    It is undeniable I have posted to legal authority backing up my claims in Steyn v. Mann

  1426. #1427 BBD
    January 26, 2016

    M2

    please identify my argument that you believe suffers from this fallacy.

    Oh come on. I’ve *already* done that. I’ve just seen your #1377 which seems to have popped up out of sequence:

    That is bad logic on your part. Neither truth nor falsity can be inferred from bad logic, mine or yours.

    We can infer that your logic is false and so your argument is unsound and that is game over for you. Your *only* recourse is to acknowledge your error and reformulate your argument. You have to stop doing this:

    I can accept science well-presented; but _I_ will decide what I believe

    Because it’s a logical fallacy. You aren’t equipped to make that judgement, so you are obliged to accept the expert consensus or resort to argument from personal incredulity, which means you cannot be taken seriously thereafter.

    * * *

    I do not understand your question. I think you are proposing that my position (my view, thoughts, beliefs) on related matters are grounded on a fallacy. That seems unlikely.

    No, it is a matter of fact and I have shown it to be so several times now.

  1427. #1428 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    BBD writes “You aren’t equipped to make that judgement, so you are obliged to accept the expert consensus or resort to argument from personal incredulity, which means you cannot be taken seriously thereafter.”

    Thank you for finally laying out succinctly what I have been unsuccessfully (obviously) trying to express.

    Everything you believe has been either (1) told to you or (2) discovered by you.

    Being poorly equipped does not relieve me of my civic duty to be engaged in government.

    Accepting other people’s claims unquestioningly does not seem responsible. Sometimes I provisionally accept claims where no particular cost exists in doing so. Since the cost of admission to the Consensus is extremely high; it needs greater proof than my demand for proof of God Himself.

  1428. #1429 BBD
    January 26, 2016

    M2

    . I am probably the most logical minded person here; very unlikely to base my logic on fallacy; but it is certainly possible to be based on error or inadequate information.

    That’s almost funny.

  1429. #1430 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    “Be scientific”

    he said, with a grin.

    Just stick to making non-sequiturs m2. They’re your forte.

  1430. #1431 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    Dan: “I have posted to legal authority backing up my claims in Steyn v. Mann”

    It’s a matter of opinion whether it validly backs up your claim.

  1431. #1432 Chris O'Neill
    January 26, 2016

    Dan: “Chris, demand all this authority”

    I didn’t demand it. I just wanted to see what you put up which naturally enough for something coming from you has its shortcomings.

    “you are quick to say “Steyn was reckless””

    Another of your false assertions about me. I didn’t say Steyn was reckless. I simply pointed out he has to be not reckless to successfully defend. You like making a lot of false assertions don’t you Dan?

    “I can admit it when I am not an expert in any area”

    That’s possible. Didn’t stop you from arguing about MBH98/99 though, did it?

    “you defer to the legal experts which I have provided”

    You can go take a running jump mate. If I see a flaw in anyone’s claims then I will point it out thank you very much, “legal expert” notwithstanding.

  1432. #1433 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 26, 2016

    Chris: First, I lumped you in with a bunch of other posters, generically. If I recall correctly, it was you who asked for a legal analysis for a constitutional expert saying Mann’s case was weak, which I provided.

    Also, if I recall correctly, after I posted said analysis, you stated that (paraphrasing) that steyn has a duty to make sure information is truthful before he publicly comments on it.

    Ok. Where is your legal authority in support. You can point out all the flaws you want, but without providing any authority, your opinions really don’t mean all that much. None of our opinions matter, at the end of the day, as it applies to Mann’s case (which is what Greg’s post is about), which is why I back my comments up with legal authority.

    And my statements regarding MBH were not “mine,” per se, but were based on the arguments from scientists based on MBH.

    Candidly, I have no idea if MBH is accurate. I did read an interesting article today by Dr. Spencer that said that, even if 2015 was the warmest year on record, it wasn’t as warm as the IPCC models predicted. he also said that it is impossible to distinguish between man made warming and natural warming. Thus, even if 2015 was the warmest year on record, how do we know it was due to man’s activities?

    Lastly, he stated that all comments from scientists who are funded by the government must be taken with a huge grain of salt because funding depends on there being a global warming issue. If these government funded scientists concluded that global warming doesn’t exist, or exists but isn’t nearly as significant and is not a threat, or it exists but is not man-made, they would lose funding.

    If find his opinions interesting and worth discussion. But I would never comment on scientific issues, other then basing it professionals, because I make no claim to scientific expertise.

    It would be nice if all you science-types an admit you don’t possess legal expertise and, when commenting on legal issues, at least cite or link to those who do.

    For example, exactly what “shortcomings” does Dr. Farber’s analysis have? What authority supports these alleged shortcomings?

  1433. #1434 Dan
    January 26, 2016

    Chris, 1430: No, it is a fact that Farber’s article says Mann’s case against Steyn is very difficult. That is a fact. Of course, that is Farber’s opinion, but it is an opinion offered by an expert who is extremely familiar with the current state of libel law.

    Which is why I have asked, repeatedly, if you, or anyone who disagrees with Farber, to link to an article, blog, etc., authored by a legal expert, which says Mann has a good case.

    Again, you may disagree with Farber, but unfortunately, without providing any authority, it is just your opinion on how you wish things were, not what they actually are.

  1434. #1435 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 26, 2016

    Also, Chris, you statement that “steyn has to not be reckless” in order to successfully defend is not entirely accurate. It should say that “Mann has to prove Steyn was reckless.” There is a big difference between someone actually being reckless, and being able to prove same..

    Someone up thread asked, after I linked to certain comments that are, IMO, fatal to Mann’s case, why they weren’t fatal to his case during the investigations.

    That ignores the very important facts that a legal case is very different from an administrative process, and, most importantly, Mann was a “defendant” in those investigations and thus did not have a burden of proof.

    He is the plaintiff in his case against Steyn, and thus has the burden of proof. As has been stated by various legal experts, meeting the burden of proof in libel cases, when the plaintiff is a public person, is extremely difficult…

  1435. #1436 SteveP
    January 26, 2016

    Michael2
    “That too; but not just driving passionate and irrational skepticism; passionate and irrational scientism falls in this category.”
    Irrationial scientism? Well, belief that science has knowledge authority over phenomenon that don’t leave enough evidence to perceive, analyze, or even seriously contemplate might come under that category. This blog is largely related to the emotional frustration of scientists who are being loudly and I would argue unfairly and negatively critiqued by non-scientists about their science. It is also, I think, about the disastrous failure of so many of our current population to be able to recognize the importance of science.

  1436. #1437 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    SteveP “It is also, I think, about the disastrous failure of so many of our current population to be able to recognize the importance of science.”

    Concurrence.

  1437. #1438 BBD
    January 26, 2016

    M2

    Accepting other people’s claims unquestioningly does not seem responsible. Sometimes I provisionally accept claims where no particular cost exists in doing so. Since the cost of admission to the Consensus is extremely high; it needs greater proof than my demand for proof of God Himself.

    Paraphrased:

    “My politics is at variance with the science so I will flatly reject the scientific evidence and never admit to the utter illogicality of doing so no matter how often or forcefully it is brought to my attention. In short, I am in denial.”

  1438. #1439 dean
    January 26, 2016

    Accepting other people’s claims unquestioningly does not seem responsible. Sometimes I provisionally accept claims where no particular cost exists in doing so. Since the cost of admission to the Consensus is extremely high; it needs greater proof than my demand for proof of God Himself.

    Leaving aside the foolishness of the bit about god, since that is really a judgement you make but sane people dispute: How does the rest of that differ from people who deny the efficacy of vaccines, or fluoride in water, or other areas of evidence based medicine?
    How does the rest of it differ from people arguing that relativity is wrong or simply not needed?

    You are free to pick and choose which topics of science you think are correct. You are not free to assert that your uninformed beliefs should be taken as seriously as what the practitioners say.

  1439. #1440 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Dean writes “Leaving aside the foolishness of the bit about god”

    It is clear to me that you are choosing to believe something you have not personally proven to exist. So what if I do likewise.

    “since that is really a judgement you make but sane people dispute”

    Sane is to dispute claims and require proof commensurate with the demand that accompanies the claim.

    “How does the rest of that differ from people who deny the efficacy of vaccines, or fluoride in water, or other areas of evidence based medicine?”

    I have no idea. I do not speak for them and they do not speak for me. Each of these topics has “pros and cons”; flouride reduces cavities but increases mottling of teeth. Vaccine effectiveness and side effect varies with the specific vaccine you have in mind, in case you actually have any in mind.

    “How does the rest of it differ from people arguing that relativity is wrong or simply not needed?”

    That again? I have never met anyone arguing that relativity is wrong. But then, I have never met anyone interested in it, certainly not in conjunction with global warming. Is there some aspect of global warming that invokes relativity?

    “You are free to pick and choose which topics of science you think are correct.”

    That’s progress.

    “You are not free to assert that your uninformed beliefs should be taken as seriously as what the practitioners say.”

    Remind me if I ever actually do that 😉

  1440. #1441 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Dean — your remark intrigues me. Can you identify a global warmist that is not (1) atheist and (2) a Democrat? If not; what do you think it means?

  1441. #1442 dean
    January 26, 2016

    Poor phrasing by me @1438 (oh for a preview button)

    This

    You are free to pick and choose which topics of science you think are correct. You are not free to assert that your uninformed beliefs should be taken as seriously as what the practitioners say.

    should be

    You are free to pick and choose which topics of science you think are correct. You are not free to expect that your uninformed beliefs be taken as seriously as what the practitioners say.

  1442. #1443 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    dean “You are not free to expect that your uninformed beliefs be taken as seriously as what the practitioners say.”

    That is indeed better phrasing. As it happens, I am not only free, but can do no other thing but to expect whatever my mind decides to expect, whether any hope of that expectation being realized actually exists.

    I suppose I expect people that think as I think to comprehend my words more correctly; not to imply agreement but at least comprehension of my meanings.

    We are in a virtual room, discussing a topic, with no proof at hand that any of us are experts in the topic of discussion. You might actually be such an expert, but in this room, on this blog, we are equals.

    We seem to have three acolytes and two skeptics actively participating. Somewhat surprising since that seems to be about the distribution of believers and skeptics identify by various polls.

    I am perhaps as interested in your belief systems as you seem to be in my disbelief system. As these discussions proceed, I learn that your beliefs may be nuanced; that some aspects of “science” are better defended than others; that it isn’t all just “science”.

    But anyone that seems to give equal weight to anything “scientific” is an acolyte of scientism, an unquestioning defender of the faith. The greatest weight ought to be on the accuracy and correctness of primary sourced information; that is your holy book, your thermometer readings, ice core benthic oxygen measurements, things like that. Nobody touches it, nobody tampers. These esoteric measurements are fully comprehended only by properly ordained priesthood (PhD) and sustained by the Peers. That is to prevent heresy and prosecute where it takes place, as you have been attempting these past few days. Just the possibility that I *might* utter a heresy is enough to put you in battle mode.

    Laypeople, that’s me and you, then get to see the scriptures (papers, reports). But hardly anyone reads the whole thing. So you go with a simplified Catechism, the SPM, Summary for Policy Makers.

    And then comes the demand. The collection plate, the tithing, the carbon tax. Forsake your sins or your carbon. But you can buy indulgences or carbon credits.

  1443. #1444 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Scientism example. Everything either causes, or is caused by, climate change. In this example it appears researchers are trying to attribute the Little Ice Age to the demise of 5,600 natives in New Mexico in the 1600’s.

    published Jan. 25, 2016 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Native American Depopulation, Reforestation, and Fire Regimes in the Southwest U.S., 1492-1900 C.E.”

    “From a population of roughly 6,500 in the 1620s fewer than 900 remained in the 1690s – a loss of more than 85 percent of the population in a few generations.”

    “To better understand the role of the indigenous population collapse on ecological and climate changes, we need this kind of high-resolution paired archaeological and paleoecological data,” said Roos. “Until then, a human-caused start to Little Ice Age cooling will remain uncertain.

    Biased maybe?

    http://www.sciencecodex.com/spanish_missions_triggered_native_american_population_collapse_indirect_impact_on_climate-174120

  1444. #1445 RickA
    United States
    January 26, 2016

    Maybe the LIA caused the decrease in population, rather than the reverse?

  1445. #1446 Michael 2
    January 26, 2016

    Scientism:

    “Climate change may be deadly for snowshoe hares”
    Maybe, maybe not. More science not settled.
    https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/wild-things/climate-change-may-be-deadly-snowshoe-hares

    From the Why would you want to department comes:

    “Figuring out why male genitals of a species often differ sharply from even its closest relatives’ involves basic, big ideas in biology, said Brandon Moore of Sewanee: The University of the South in Tennessee, who coorganized a symposium on genital diversity. ”

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/search-missing-pieces-puzzle-male-genital-diversity

    “Switch to Clean Energy Can Be Fast and Cheap”
    But probably won’t be.
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/switch-to-clean-energy-can-be-fast-and-cheap/

    “MacDonald and Clack said the key enabler for their high renewable energy penetration scenarios is high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission. Photovoltaics and wind turbines often generate direct-current electricity, so transmitting in direct current removes a conversion step that costs money and saps power.”

    Idiots. HVDC requires TWO conversion steps; one at each end. Low voltage DC to high voltage DC, then at the other end, conversion to AC or low voltage DC.

    It is used for really long transmission lines since it does not experience skin effect or induction losses. It can also be sent over a single wire using ground return.

    But it is more susceptible to auroral interference and solar storms.

  1446. #1447 dean
    January 26, 2016

    We seem to have three acolytes and two skeptics

    I did not really expect an honest or meaningful answer from you, and you did not disappoint.

    Science: the overwhelming implication of our observations says x. x is the best we have (x could be a result in climate science, it could be the efficacy of vaccines, the germ theory of disease, etc.)
    m2: I chose not to believe x (fair enough, that is your right) because I know it is not x that is supported by the data, it is y. Why? My gut. (No intelligent work provided)

    Your actions do not make you a sceptic, they make you a blanket denier of the science, and they also show there is no reason to take your beliefs as anything about climate change (or any other science), it simply reflects your own uninformed view – it is worthless.

  1447. #1448 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    dean “I did not really expect an honest or meaningful answer from you, and you did not disappoint.”

    Thanks; and good morning to you, too!

    “Science: the overwhelming implication of our observations says x. x is the best we have (x could be a result in climate science, it could be the efficacy of vaccines, the germ theory of disease, etc.)”

    There is no “we” and there is no “our” observations. ON any particular topic you choose (1) to be interested and (2) to believe (or not) the conclusion from the observation, whether it be your observation (most reliable), someone else’s observations (adequate), or something you saw on the internet (highly variable in reliability).

    What regulates these two factors is probably your limbic system, that part of your brain that chooses friends and foes.

    “dean imagines m2 saying: I chose not to believe x because I know it is not x that is supported by the data, it is y. Why?”

    It has become your story, your straw-man; finish it any way you like :-)

    But for everyone else I will insert my own story. The observations support X, Y, Z and T (and doubtless many more).. The problem is one of induction; most scientific effort therefore must be to cast out the ones that do not belong, assuming that only one of these can be present, when in fact many or all could actually be simultaneously present, in which case induction is likely to fail.

    But People of the Left don’t think that way; there must be exactly and only one bad guy, the observations must be explained and explainable by only X. Y, Z and T aren’t even on the table.

    In my computer profession I see this quite often when technicians are faced with a situation having multiple actual causes of failure. They tend to be unable to solve the problem. They will fix one thing, it doesn’t fix the computer, they put the one thing back the way it was restoring the fault!. Then they go to the next thing, fix it; the computer does not work. Had they fixed things and left them fixed then the computer eventually works. But that takes a great deal of confidence that a problem existed and was fixed even though the computer is not yet working. Before I was sent to Alaska, the Navy trained me well in diagnostic procedures, more so than anyone else in my class (mostly because they hated me and wanted me to fail, but the result was superior training).

    So, while I am aware that X explains the observations, I do not therefore exclude Y, Z and T. I am nuanced and these are nuances. People of the Left don’t do nuances. That’s okay too; there’s not a thing you can do about it, it is how you are wired. At best you might someday realize that other people are not like you, and that it’s not necessarily bad to be different.

    The mechanism is amplification and positive feedback loop. If you like someone, you start to overlook their faults and look more closely at their positive values that correspond with yours. This accelerates your approval process. Soon you think that person is wonderful and can do no wrong. That is a stable state until the person does something so bad it gets your attention. Then the bi-stable flip-flop flops over to the other state. Suddenly you see his faults, all of them. He’s now a bad guy and can do nothing right; you ignore his virtues and in an argument do not even acknowledge anything agreeable or right.

    Do you not see this happening here? From time to time I agree with your words, or with BBD; but that is not the same as agreeing with you, prostrating myself to you and making you my superior. That is what you actually want; that is the price for your approval.

    When I declare myself a libertarian; it says nothing about my perspective on science or climate; it says a lot that I am not going to bend my knee to you. BBD hates it and you aren’t very excited by it either.

    You have seen that I know quite a lot about many things. I don’t ask you to bend your knee to me but the entire life purpose of People of the Left is to be leader or led. Being independent is unthinkable, scary, anathema.

    So scary is it that President Obama says, “You didn’t build that.”

    “Your actions do not make you a sceptic, they make you a blanket denier of the science”

    Struggling for adjectives I see 😉

    “they also show there is no reason to take your beliefs as anything about climate change”

    No reason at all. That is what I have been struggling to explain. There is no reason for you to believe anyone. It is unscientific!

  1448. #1449 RickA
    United States
    January 26, 2016

    Dean #1447:

    What if x is the ECS range of 1.5 to 4.5.

    What if y is that ECS is 1.66C.

    y is within the range of x.

    Is such a person a denier?

  1449. #1450 Bernard J.
    January 27, 2016

    Can you identify a global warmist that is not (1) atheist and (2) a Democrat? If not; what do you think it means?

    That’s trivially simple.

    It means that people who a prone to religious and/or conservative thinking have a greater propensity to irrationality, and for cognitive scotoma/biases that reaffirm their ideologies.

    Conversly it means that people who are more inclined to put rationality and empiricism in front of their own personal beliefs are less likely to have fundamentalist religious beliefs, and are more likely to hold political views that eschew an inclination to think no further than one’s own comfort, or to avoid thinking of the repercussions of one’s actions.

    That very few professional climate scientists are both religious and Republican simply shows that they’re a very rational bunch of people indeed.

    And this isn’t just my opinion. It’s actually science…

  1450. #1451 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Bernard J. “And this isn’t just my opinion. It’s actually science…”

    It is definition!

    But for the most part, I agree. You label your opponents some way and your friends a different way. Since you have defined the words, they can be anything. On close inspection you may find that the words don’t match observations of course.

    It boils down to “My friends are like me and my opponents are not like me”.

    Let us examine some of your claims.

    “It means that people who a prone to religious and/or conservative thinking have a greater propensity to irrationality, and for cognitive scotoma/biases that reaffirm their ideologies.”

    Reaffirm their ideologies? Good heavens; in what way do you differ? Everything here is exactly that and almost nothing else. BBD, dean, you; all re-affirming your ideology.

    And what ideology might that be? Socialism; the hive, the herd:

    “and are more likely to hold political views that eschew an inclination to think no further than one’s own comfort, or to avoid thinking of the repercussions of one’s actions.”

    And there it is. Not science. Groupthink. Projection. You didn’t build that! It also isn’t correct in fact, not that it matters. You are what you are; I am what I am. But the “science” cannot infer individual performance from the group; a group defined by People of the Left in the first place but are not actually a “group” that is self-identified as such. I am a person, and I work among people, but I am not a group, I am not a “we” and no science on Earth can predict ME.

    I think about other people all the time but I don’t go on national TV as I pick up my own and sometimes other people’s trash strewn around the neighborhood or perform minor acts of courtesy and charity.

    The science is that the religious right is more personally charitable than the socialist left. “Sixteen months ago, Arthur C. Brooks, a professor at Syracuse University, published ‘Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism.’ The surprise is that liberals are markedly less charitable than conservatives.” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/conservatives_more_liberal_giv.html

    I believe this is so for the simple reason that the People of the Left are required, and thus allow, others to dictate everything. Charity, kindness, compassion, service — all of these things are left to someone else to decide, do, pay for.

    As President Obama says, “You didn’t build that”. You are nothing. You might as well not exist except as a Democratic party vote. You receive charity, Other People’s Money, Other People’s Labor.

    People of the Right, however, are somewhat more individualistic. That means unpredictable. Some will be charitable, others not. Some will be kind, others not. Some will be smart and intelligent (me!), others not.

    People of the Right are happy or at least prefer it to socialism. I choose for me, you choose for you. What could be wrong with that? Plenty; it’s risky. It is how homo sapiens advanced in the first place; taking risks, but for most people it is certainly better to stick with the herd. You need only one explorer to find a new grazing meadow then a few herders to move the flock where sheep may safely graze. They don’t even need names. They didn’t build that.

    As for me, I sort of have one foot in the herd and the other not. I’m more of a sheepdog I suppose; near the herd but not in or of the herd. I provide more benefit to the herd than I obtain from it; but the herd is like insurance.

  1451. #1452 Bernard J.
    January 27, 2016

    What if x is the ECS range of 1.5 to 4.5.

    What if y is that ECS is 1.66C.

    y is within the range of x.

    Is such a person a denier?

    Yes, when that person has been directed to two simple fits to empirical data, so simple that even a high school student could do it, and ignores the fact that on the pattern of currently realised warming, equilibrium climate sensitivity is greater than 1.66 C.

    Why don’t you try to fit a logarithmic curve to the data to date? Why don’t you try to understand what it’s telling you about the minimum value for aggregate climate sensitivity given the currently-realised warming?

    Is it that you are simply insufficiently numerate? If so, then why can you not look at the results of such calculations that others have conducted for you, and at least make inferences from those? Is it that doing so will contradict the stance that you hold, and that any refusal to accept those results will show the illogic of your position?

  1452. #1453 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    “You and BBD are the same: You keep spouting off all these legal conclusions without providing authority”

    Please provide evidence that I “[spouted] off all these legal conclusions”.

    More stuff Dan just makes up!

    And then Dan argues that “The fact that Curry makes those comments after Steyn, assuming such is necessary, is relevant because it would show Steyn’s interpretation of the emails is accurate (again, assuming Steyn needs scientific back up in the first place, which has not been demonstrated by you or anyone else). ”
    which moves the goalposts, since Dan earlier if not outright said, at the very least strongly implied that Steyn could use the defense his view was based on other scientists.

    But since you mentioned legal authority, care to tell me what legal authority do you have that “fraudulent” means the same as “dishonest.”?

  1453. #1454 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    “Biased maybe?”

    Michael 2 would do well to read the actual publication. But be careful! You might actually learn something!

  1454. #1455 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “you statement that “steyn has to not be reckless” in order to successfully defend is not entirely accurate”

    Just because what I said is not sufficient doesn’t mean it’s not accurate.

    “Mann has to prove Steyn was reckless.”

    Sure Mann has to prove it to the appropriate standard for a non-criminal case.

  1455. #1456 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    “Lastly, he stated that all comments from scientists who are funded by the government must be taken with a huge grain of salt because funding depends on there being a global warming issue. If these government funded scientists concluded that global warming doesn’t exist, or exists but isn’t nearly as significant and is not a threat, or it exists but is not man-made, they would lose funding. ”

    First of all, Spencer himself is government-funded, so you should, as per his own claim, take his words with a HUGE grain of salt.
    Second, if anthropogenic influence was small, there’d *still* be funding going towards climate science, and perhaps even more, since it would mean we still have no idea whatsoever what is causing the climate to change, and where it is going. It’s like knowing there is a meteorite close to earth, but we have no idea of its size and its trajectory. In essence Spencer’s appeal to ignorance is thus an appeal to even *more* funding to climate science!
    Third, plenty of non-government funded scientist are saying the same thing. Just look at the BEST project, which was almost exclusively funded externally. All the major energy companies around the world agree with the scientists on the cause of the observed climate change (and in the process contradict Spencer’s favorite story, it should be noted).
    Fourth, several countries have economies that depend on fossil fuels, but even there the scientists by and large agree: burning those fossil fuels increases CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere, and this is the prime cause of the observed climate change, and further climate change may end up being a major problem. That is, even in countries that in principle should politically be disinclined (think e.g. Russia) to want AGW to be real and a problem, government-funded scientists end up with the same conclusions as those in other parts of the world.

  1456. #1457 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “No, it is a fact that Farber’s article says Mann’s case against Steyn is very difficult.”

    Never denied that. Why do you make false implications about what I say? One would think you’re not very good at paying attention (to put it mildly).

    “who is extremely familiar with the current state of libel law”

    Maybe. But he still has to interpret how the facts fit into the current state of libel law.

    “just your opinion”

    I’m not offering my opinion. Just pointing out shortcomings in other opinions.

    “how you wish things were”

    Where have I said anything about how I wish things were? You have a pathological compulsion to make thinks up Dan.

  1457. #1458 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    M2 asks Dean:
    “Dean — your remark intrigues me. Can you identify a global warmist that is not (1) atheist and (2) a Democrat? If not; what do you think it means?”

    It is a bit difficult to determine what M2 considers a “global warmist”, but unlike Bernard J I will not be so unkind and point out that in the American landscape denial of AGW appears to be a required declaration for Republicans. Instead, I will point out a few people, both scientists and politicians, that fit at the very least b) (not a Democrat), and possibly also a) (not an atheist):

    Scientists:
    1. James E. Hansen. Almost universally reviled by all those who deny the scientific consensus. AFAIK, Hansen is now an Independent, but used to be Republican, until the denial of AGW became such an important tenet in that party. Not sure whether he is an atheist or not.

    2. Barry Bickmore, the one-who-irked-Monckton-so-much-he-still-has-not-been-sued-despite-repeated-threats-of-doing-so. Active Republican and active Mormon.

    3. Kerry Emanuel, also a frequent target of disdain by the AGW deniers is Republican, although he just may switchto Independent (or has already done so) out of frustration with the GOP’s denial. I don’t know his religious views

    4. Katharine Hayhoe. She’s Canadian, so let us just skip the party allegiance. But as an evangelical christian she definitely does not confirm to point a)

    5. Calvin DeWitt. Evangelical christian, so there goes point a), and does not identify with a single party, so there goes point b).

    Politicians:
    1. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Republican. Religious.
    2. Lindsey Graham. Republican. Religious.
    3. George Pataki. Republican. Not sure about his religious beliefs.

    So, let’s just end with a quote from Lindsey Graham:
    “I know I’m not a scientist, but here’s the problem I’ve got with some people in my party: When you ask the scientists what’s going on, why don’t you believe them? If I went to 10 doctors and nine said, ‘Hey, you’re gonna die,’ and one says ‘You’re fine,’ why would I believe the one guy?”

  1458. #1459 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    BTW, I have been so kind to only look at the US and take some examples. Plenty of additional examples from elsewhere (Do I even dare to mention John Cook? Or better yet, John Houghton, former IPCC chair).

  1459. #1460 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    RickA

    What if x is the ECS range of 1.5 to 4.5.

    What if y is that ECS is 1.66C.

    y is within the range of x.

    Is such a person a denier?

    As Bernard J says, yes, if they repeat the same debunked claims in the face of repeated correction.

    So yes, you are a denier, RickA.

  1460. #1461 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Chris O’Neill wrote “Perhaps m2 means someone who is not a global warming denialist.”

    Close enough for government work. :-)

    When you have only two speeds or two thoughts, if it isn’t one it must be the other.

  1461. #1462 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    #1440 M2

    It is clear to me that you are choosing to believe something you have not personally proven to exist. So what if I do likewise.

    Ludicrous. Nobody, scientists included, starts from first principles every morning. Your rhetorical evasions are becoming increasingly absurd. Worse, you are trying to portray your denialism as equivalent to accepting the scientific evidence. Now that really is insane.

    Enough. Let’s stop the feculent flood. With you, it’s all about tax:

    And then comes the demand. The collection plate, the tithing, the carbon tax. Forsake your sins or your carbon. But you can buy indulgences or carbon credits.

    This is the truth, with the effluent hosed off:

    “My politics is at variance with the science. So I will reject the scientific evidence and never admit to the illogicality of doing so, no matter how forcefully it is brought to my attention. In short, I am in denial.”

    Own it.

  1462. #1463 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “my statements regarding MBH were not “mine,” per se, but were based on the arguments from scientists based on MBH”

    OK. So your comments on scientific matters are repeats of comments by crackpots commenting outside their field of expertise. Glad you cleared that up.

    “I have no idea if MBH is accurate. I did read an interesting article today by Dr. Spencer that said that, even if 2015 was the warmest year on record, it wasn’t as warm as the IPCC models predicted.”

    Your second sentence above is a great non-sequitur to the first. Well done.

    “Dr. Spencer said that, even if 2015 was the warmest year on record, it wasn’t as warm as the IPCC models predicted.”

    If he’s talking about surface temperature, then he is simply wrong. At the very least he’s done an excellent job of deceiving you. CMIP3 ensemble average for 2015 was predicted to be 0.54 degrees C above the 1980-1999 average. It actually turned out to 0.54 degrees C above the 1980-1999 average in GISTemp.

    So Spencer is either lying to you or being deceptive. It demonstrates how gullible you are that you just lap up what he says.

    “exactly what “shortcomings” does Dr. Farber’s analysis have?”

    I pointed that out above but you ignored it. I don’t have any confidence that you won’t keep ignoring it.

    “What authority supports these alleged shortcomings?”

    OK, so you only care about proof by authority. Waste of time discussing the issues with you then.

  1463. #1464 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    “It is a bit difficult to determine what M2 considers a “global warmist””

    Indeed. Perhaps m2 means someone who is not a global warming denialist.

  1464. #1465 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 27, 2016

    Chris: The reason I have ignored the shortcomings is because you haven’t provided any authority to support them. If you can provide some legal authority, whether it be case law, treatise, law review article, even a blog post by a well-known con law scholar, I will be happy to give have that discussion with you.

    Until then, they are just your meaningless opinions on what you think libel law ought to be. This is a perfect example of the hypocrisy I noted above. I glance at an article by Dr. Spencer while having breakfast yesterday and link to it. You call me gullible for daring to even consider it, when I merely said he made interesting points and made no comment as to whether he was right or wrong.

    But, when it comes to legal issues, you feel free to say whatever you want, without providing authority (which of course you are free to do, but don’t expect people to give it any consideration, just as I wouldn’t expect you to give consideration to any science-related posts I make without proving authority.

    Again, why the hostility to Dr. Spencer? He is lying or being deceptive? Again, good people can disagree.

  1465. #1466 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “The reason I have ignored”

    Then why didn’t you say so before?

    Obviously you are only invested in proof by supposed authority so there no point in discussing anything with you at all.

    “what you think libel law ought to be”

    My points had nothing to do with what I think libel law ought to be. You are simply constructing a giant strawman.

    “You call me gullible for daring to even consider it”

    Once again, you make a blatant misrepresentation of what I said. I pointed out the fact that he deceived you and that you care so little about what facts he has to back up his claim that you just carelessly repeat his claim. That’s just gullible.

    “made no comment as to whether he was right or wrong”

    I’m aware that you like to repeat claims without backup.

    “why the hostility to Dr. Spencer? He is lying or being deceptive?”

    If you don’t have the cognitive skill to see how he is being deceptive by asserting that 2015 was not as warm as the model forecasts when in actual fact it was then there is nothing I can do to help you.

    “good people can disagree”

    Spencer is not what I would call a “good person”. He’s a nasty person. People who make false or, to put it generously, deceptive claims about comparing observations and models have something profoundly wrong in their character.

  1466. #1467 Dan
    January 27, 2016

    Chris: Supposed authority? In addition to Farber, I have linked to case law and treatise saying what the law is. Those are not “supposed authority,” that is legal authority (binding, in this sense). And, yes, attorneys often do cite to academic papers in their pleadings as persuasive authority. So, what I have posted is not “supposed authority,” it is authority.

    Your statements regarding libel law have no basis in reality. For example, when you said Steyn had a duty to make sure he knew what he was saying was true before he said it publicly, you stated a standard that, frankly doesn’t exist.

    How about this: “There is no such thing as global warming, either man made or natural. In fact, there is no such thing as climate variation, as the climate stays the same year after year, decade after decade, etc. Also, there is no such thing as carbon emissions. Of course, I can’t cite one academic journal to support these propositions, but it is what I think, damn it, and therefore should be given equal consideration to other posts that link to scientific authority. ”

    That is exactly what you are doing with your legal analysis. What makes it so funny is, when it comes to science, you think people such as Spencer are “evil” because he reaches a different conclusion then you. You also say he is being intentionally deceptive; i.e., he knows his opinion is wrong but says it anyway. How, exactly, you would know this is beyond me. Isn’t it possible Spencer truly believes what he says?

    Can you read minds? I actually feel bad for people like you. I tend to give people the benefit of the doubt, and presume until shown otherwise they truly mean what they say, even if I disagree. Most people don’t presume someone is intentionally lying just because they reach a different conclusion .

  1467. #1468 Dan
    January 27, 2016

    Chris: And, yes, you are simply stating what you think libel law ought to be. If you state that you think Steyn had a duty to ascertain the truthfulness of his statements prior to making them, about a public person, without linking to any authority, it is just your opinion.

    Is that a difficult concept for you to grasp?

  1468. #1469 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 27, 2016

    Spencer has history. If you dig around a little, you will find out why the antipathy. You don’t need to be a climatologist to see where it is coming from, just the kind of understanding of how science works that you’d expect from a reasonably intelligent and educated citizen.

    For starters I’ll point to the creationist crank magnetism underlying his attitude toward AGW.

  1469. #1470 Dan
    January 27, 2016

    Marco, 1453: http://dictionary.law.com/default.aspx?selected=785

    Although Steyn doesn’t have the burden of proof.

    But, more to the point, Steyn made his statement in a political blog, not a legal journal. He was using the word fraud in its collegial, every day meaning, not in its specific legal meaning (although, as shown, even that means dishonest).

    Do you really think there is a distinction between the words “dishonest” and “fraud.” Fraud is simply a form of dishonesty, and dishonest is a form of fraud. That would be like me, in a personal injury case, arguing “plaintiff’s medical expert never said she was injured as a result of my client’s negligence; the doctor only said plaintiff was hurt.”

    Come on…you are better then that…

  1470. #1471 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 27, 2016

    Marco: Just to follow-up, here is the Merriam-Webster definition of fraud in its every day usage:

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fraud

    Again, the context makes clear Steyn wasn’t using the word “fraud” in a legal context, but in an everyday usage context.

  1471. #1472 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 27, 2016

    Btw, Marco, Chris Oneill, BBD, etc., if there was no evidence that Mann’s work was dishonest, fraudulent, etc., then why were there investigations and administrative hearings. Now, those hearings may have concluded Mann’s work was not dishonest or fraudulent, but Steyn is free to opine that he disagrees with the findings of those investigations.

    And, if you read the post in its entirety, that was the main point, specifically regarding PSU’s investigation; i.e., that an organization that would cover up systemic rape of minors to protect a faculty member would also cover up fraudulent work by another faculty member to protect him.

    You can agree or disagree with Steyn. Perhaps the vast majority does disagree with Steyn. But that does not change the fact that Steyn is free to voice his opinion.

    If Mann’s position is correct, OJ Simpson would have had a libel case against every person who publicly stated he murdered his wife after trial, and no one would be able, without subjecting themselves to a lawsuit, to voice their opinion that the jury got it wrong.

    Would you really want to live in such a society? If it comes down to free speech or protecting the feelings or reputations of public persons, free speech wins every day. Also, public persons, because they are in the public eye, are in a far better position to protect the reputation by rebutting false charges. Mann is well-known. He could have gotten air time on a variety of news shows, radio, etc, and rebutted Steyn’s conclusion in the court of public opinion.

    That way, Mann gets to protect his reputation, while the “crown jewel” of our civil liberties, freedom of though and expression, is protected.

    This isn’t hard, guys…

  1472. #1473 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    Dan

    Btw, Marco, Chris Oneill, BBD, etc., if there was no evidence that Mann’s work was dishonest, fraudulent, etc., then why were there investigations and administrative hearings.

    Because criminals stole and leaked his emails and useful idiots manufactured a fake controversy out of them.

    If you can’t see this political hit job for what it was, you are too naive for your job.

    Note that Mann was exonerated by every single investigation. This was because there was no wrongdoing and d.on’t waste my time with conspiracy theories at this point please.

    Now, you dodged a question with a question. You keep dodging this question. You have *never* answered it despite my asking many times now.

    So let’s have a straight answer at long last please:

    If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

    Once we have addressed this, we can move on to consider the implications.

    Your answer in your next response, please. I have waited quite long enough now.

  1473. #1474 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD “Note that Mann was exonerated by every single investigation.”

    Yes, for what its worth.

  1474. #1475 Dan
    January 27, 2016

    BBD: You have to define “over-turned.” Do you mean, are the any studies that disagree with MBH? I presume so. But, again, I am more interested in the legal aspects of Mann v. Steyn, and its free speech implications. I really don’t care if his work was dishonest. I care tremendously whether people have the right to voice their opinion about it without being subjected to bogus lawsuits.

    As for criminals stealing his emails, I am not justifying that at all, but that is the ultimate red-herring. Just because the emails were obtained by illegal means does not mean that at least some people interpreted them to mean Mann’s work was deceptive.

    Pointing to someone’s else’s wrongdoing (stealing emails) to justify other potential wrong doing is lame.

    Now, please answer this (and I will be happy to answer you question once you clarify what exactly you mean by “overturn”): Do you acknowledge that, based on the evidence presented so far, Steyn’s statement was protected free speech? If not, provide evidence and authority explaining why. Also, if you are going to rely on the “reckless” standard, please provide authority defining reckless in libel cases, and also provide authority supporting whatever of Steyn’s conduct you deem reckless.

    You want to argue science; I am focused on the legal issues.

  1475. #1476 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 27, 2016

    Actually, BBD, I will simplify the question. You state Mann was exonerated by every single investigation. Fine.

    Do you agree that Steyn, or anyone else, is well-within his rights to disagree with the conclusion reached by the investigations?

    Aren’t people, after all, free to say they disagreed with the OJ verdict, or the verdict involving that mother accused of killing her little girl a few years ago (can’t remember the name of the mother, but it was in Florida, and there were photos of her partying).

    The whole point is Steyn, or anyone else, is free to offer their opinions about public people, which is why Mann, in all probability, will lose this case and most likely end up owing Steyn hundreds of thousands, if not over a million dollars, in legal fees.

  1476. #1477 Dan
    January 27, 2016

    OA: I don’t doubt Spencer has a history. That is fine. And people should be free to voice opinions about him. And you are absolutely right that there are many times when non-climate scientists can spot potentially bad behavior.

    A good example is, if emails are made public showing a group of climate scientists are applying what they call “Mike’s Nature Trick” and seek to “Hide the Decline.”

    Some people will think that was dishonest and/or fraudulent, regardless of whether it really was

  1477. #1478 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Marco, thank you for your nuanced and well considered reply. I suspect you take my meaning; there’s a preponderance in alignment between one’s views on global warming and what, if anything, to do about it with party. Also aligned with party is religion. By inference, if A=C and B=C, then A=B even though no direct link exists between A and B.

    As you have seen, your reply is considerably more nuanced than some of your peers whose judgement is simple and direct.

    Your ability to quickly identify the exceptions suggests they are easily identified because they are exceptions.

    “1. James E. Hansen. Almost universally reviled by all those who deny the scientific consensus.”

    It is not clear to me that the founders of the AGW movement intended for it to become what it has become, any more than Martin Luther intended (near as I can tell) to start a religion with his name on it.

    The sloppy data keeping of the CRU at UEA suggests they really did not consider the possibility they would be at the center of a trillion dollar storm. So I do not fault Phil Jones or Michael Mann as much as some of my peers, no big conspiracy theory. However, their work has been used in ways suggesting sinister motives having little to do with climate.

    The EPA was founded by Republicans, the Civil Rights Act is a Republican product. I love the environment; but it serves no purpose if I cannot enjoy it, and for that reason I am not particularly fond of wilderness areas of excessive size.

    “2. Barry Bickmore, the one-who-irked-Monckton-so-much-he-still-has-not-been-sued-despite-repeated-threats-of-doing-so. Active Republican and active Mormon.”

    He is clearly not what would be considered a normal Republican nor do I consider it appropriate for any Christian to attack the character of other people in a public forum.

    Obviously being a “Republican” is not quite the predictor some here believe.

    “4. Katharine Hayhoe. She’s Canadian, so let us just skip the party allegiance. But as an evangelical christian she definitely does not confirm to point a)”

    Canadians are so far to the left that a right wing Canadian is still to the left of Bernie Sanders.

    It will be interesting to explore why she is the way she is; both as to evangelical religion and climate advocate. I see nearly perfect overlap; both are religions (belief systems with obligations) and she obtains fame and influence over others in both realms. What’s not to love about it?

    “1. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Republican. Religious.”

    He is not a climate scientist or social justice warrior. He *is* a climate activist: “In recent years, many commentators have seen Schwarzenegger as moving away from the right and towards the center of the political spectrum” (Wikipedia).

    He is not conspicuously religious. In fact, it appears he has become neither libertarian nor religious.

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/schwarzenegger-furious-over-indianas-religious-freedom-law

    Compare him to Charlton Heston or Clint Eastwood.

  1478. #1479 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 27, 2016

    OA: I don’t doubt Spencer has a history. That is fine. And people should be free to voice opinions about him. And you are absolutely right that there are many times when non-climate scientists can spot potentially bad behavior.

    Many? Spot? I said understand.

    A good example is, if emails are made public showing a group of climate scientists are applying what they call “Mike’s Nature Trick” and seek to “Hide the Decline.”

    No. Your example is one of word games invented by febrile, hyperventilating propagandists.

    Some people will think that was dishonest and/or fraudulent, regardless of whether it really was

    Thanks for the meaningless generality.

  1479. #1480 Desertphile
    January 27, 2016

    Obstreperous Applesauce<” Thanks for the meaningless generality.”

    The only reason denialists post here is to waste the time of pro-science defenders and communicators. When I see an email notice stating a comment has been posted, I automatically delete the message, unread, if it says “Dan” or “RickA” or “Michael 2” at the top. They don’t want to discuss the subject.

  1480. #1481 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Desertphile wrote “They don’t want to discuss the subject.”

    Good for you. I don’t really have all that much to say on Steyn vs Mann. Wait and see. Dan has writen mostly on the topic resisting various drifts.

  1481. #1482 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    Dan

    Actually, BBD, I will simplify the question. You state Mann was exonerated by every single investigation. Fine.

    This isn’t an answer to the question you have been asked over and over again:

    The question you have once *again* dodged is this:

    If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

    Now, why won’t you answer it?

    Whatever would a jury make of such evasiveness, I wonder?

  1482. #1483 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD “If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?”

    Overturned implies a binary situation: Mann vs Not-Mann.

    Since it is not binary, it cannot just be “overturned”; but neither does that mean it is 100 percent affirmed.

    Mann’s peers introduced their own hockey sticks. Similar but not identical. Obviously some *bits* were not used, or other bits used that Mann didn’t use; some process used or not used or used differently.

    But overturned? Good heavens. I’d pinch myself if “the system” overturned itself.

  1483. #1484 Desertphile
    January 27, 2016

    BBD: If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

    Now, why won’t you answer it?

    *CRICKETS*

    Also, if Dr. Mann meant to deceive people, why did he not do so?

  1484. #1485 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Desertphile “Now, why won’t you answer it?”

    Having announced that you delete notifications, perhaps your question has been answered and you missed it. I provided an answer and its probably up there in the blizzard.

  1485. #1486 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    BBD: You have to define “over-turned.”

    Shown to be fundamentally incorrect.

    Stop pissing me around, please.

  1486. #1487 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    “Do you really think there is a distinction between the words “dishonest” and “fraud.” ”

    Yes. You may want to read the definitions themselves. That the word “dishonest” features does not mean the two are equated…especially when the dictionary does not do so.

  1487. #1488 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    M2

    BBD “Note that Mann was exonerated by every single investigation.”

    Yes, for what its worth.

    That’s a conspiracy theory. You are already a laughing stock for refusing to admit to your reliance on the logical fallacy of argument from personal incredulity. Why make things worse?

  1488. #1489 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD “Why make things worse?”

    There is no “worse”. You are a binary thinker. There’s good, there’s bad. There is no better, there is no worse.

    I agreed with your claim. MM has been exonerated. Not by me of course but my opinion means nothing; I am not his employer.

    As I explained a day or two ago it isn’t about science or ideology. It’s about dominion.

    I will not bend a knee to you.

    But perhaps you’ll bend your knee to me. I have described the steps I have taken to minimize my energy use. I have reported my consumption of energy, 1/10th of the national average assuming you reported that correctly.

    How about you? What have you done to reduce your carbon footprint?

  1489. #1490 Marco
    January 27, 2016

    “Marco, thank you for your nuanced and well considered reply.”

    If only you would have done the same. But no. You decide to dismiss my examples using such silly reasoning, one wonders why you accused *me* of just wanting to argue (on another forum, in case someone wondered).

    Just see how you use the No True Scotsman fallacy for Barry Bickmore, thereby *also* ignoring that even if we were to accept that Bickmore is not a typical Republican nor a typical christian, it *still* does not make him both a Democrat and an atheist.
    Or your attempt at dismissal of Katharine Heyhoe (“Canadians are so far to the left”) and suddenly considering religion very useful for AGW, while earlier suggesting atheism was a requirement.
    Schwarzenegger, oh dear, yeah, he must be thrown out as an example, too. Closet-Democrat and atheist, is what Michael suggests. What a bad christian to be against a law that allows people to discriminate based on their religious views! Michael believes christians should be discriminating! Just like christians cannot criticize others, like Bickmore did with Monckton’s frequent threats of sueing people (one wonders what Dan and RickA think of that behavior).

    But the examples need to be dismissed or minimalized, right, Michael? It is easier to make it into a party-allegiance issue, because then you can easier dismiss those who *do* accept the reality of AGW as just the other side of the political coin. Including all those scientists.

  1490. #1491 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    Marco “Just see how you use the No True Scotsman fallacy”

    Well, there you go. Busted my assertion that all warmists are Democrats and atheists.

    But maybe we haven’t yet established the No True Warmist fallacy 😉

    Perhaps all warmists are Democrats and atheists!

    If you are not Democrat and atheist, maybe you are just climate concerned; maybe a good old fashioned environmentalist which includes quite a few Republicans.

    So take the praise I extend to you and be gracious about it.

    We’ve drifted a bit since this topic arose so very long ago (yesterday, it seems).

    So let us review the context.

    Me: it needs greater proof than my demand for proof of God Himself. context: Atheists do not usually deny God existence outright, but demand a high level of proof, commensurate with any demand that accompanies expectation of your conversion.

    Dean: Leaving aside the foolishness of the bit about god, since that is really a judgement you make but sane people dispute:

    The No True Sane Person fallacy.

    Dean=Atheist. BBD? You? How far wrong will I be?

    A “warmist” is a combination of “global warming” and “socialist”. Socialist implies the Democratic Party, at least in the United States. Global warming is pretty well established, the exact magnitude of of which is uncertain except to a subset of humanity that believes itself to be the enemy of nature; largely or almost exclusively Democrats.

    Pew research has identified strong correlation between atheism (“unaffiliated”) vs evangelical religion (strongly held beliefs) and global warming. 64% man made 13% natural human casued global warming say the unaffiliated, and evangelicals are more likely to say “insufficient data” but of those willing to commit, 28 percent human caused and 33 percent natural.

    The outlier is Hispanic Catholics with a whopping 77 percent manmade 15 percent natural acceptance of global warming. One could speculate all day why this is but Catholics have a strong guilt streak; “original sin” and all that which AGW plays into.

    http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/10/22/religion-and-views-on-climate-and-energy-issues/

    On religion and party affiliation, this chart halfway down is quite interesting.
    http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

    The top two groups (of any kind, religious or otherwise) that lean Republican are Mormons and Evangelicals (interesting that Evangelicals generally hate Mormons; maybe they sense rivalry).

    For Democrats, no religion chooses it; “unafilliated” is third on the list preferring Democrat to Republican 61 to 25.

    What that means is Democrats strongly accept AGW, atheists strongly prefer Democrats. On reasonably concludes therefore that the majority of AGW advocates are going to be Democrats and Atheists.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/8/13/1119562/-Why-Do-Atheists-Vote-Democrat

    It’s a pretty good essay. I don’t expect to find much agreeable on DailKOS but that one is reasonable.

    As to my own religion, unlike the atheist’s experience in the DailyKOS article, I do not believe God is going to “fix it”. I’m a libertarian and so is God. Clean my own room — or not, nobody is doing it for me.

  1491. #1492 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    This is nuts:

    As I explained a day or two ago it isn’t about science or ideology. It’s about dominion.

    I will not bend a knee to you.

    It’s not about personal submission; it’s about denial vs acceptance of the massed scientific evidence.

    You are in denial. I am not. You don’t have to bend the knee to anyone (least of all me) to acknowledge a matter of demonstrable fact like this.

    Of course, personalising it as you are now trying to do is a weak rhetorical gambit to avoid admitting error, which is likely why you are resorting to it in extremis.

  1492. #1493 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD writes “Of course, personalising it as you are now trying to do is a weak rhetorical gambit to avoid admitting error, which is likely why you are resorting to it in extremis.”

    So all I need do is find where you have done likewise? Awesome!

    But you are quite correct. The strength of a libertarian comes from Self; there is no herd coming to my rescue. I argue from my own knowledge and experience and I require the same of you. Others can argue for themselves. There is no appeal to your authority that applies to me. However, you are free to cite authority in your own belief system.

    So *you* can provide information that might alter my position; but merely telling me to do so accomplishes nothing — you haven’t even acknowledge what is my position that needs to be altered, or what is the destination or goal.

    Really all I want from anyone is (1) what do you believe and (2) why do you believe it. If I encounter a strong belief and good reasoning, I inspect my own belief and reasoning in the same realm.

    Some of your own personalizations (I know you can do it):

    BBD: Surely I cannot be the first person to point out that you are profoundly guilty of the logical fallacy of argument from personal incredulity which is a form of argument from ignorance?

    As such, you are simply wrong. QED.

    …admit the fundamental nature of your error and change your position.

    You have to admit error and alter your position.

    BBD writes “You aren’t equipped to make that judgement, so you are obliged to accept the expert consensus or resort to argument from personal incredulity, which means you cannot be taken seriously thereafter.”

  1493. #1494 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    Okay, so this is about taxed *and* God for M2.

    Big surprise.

  1494. #1495 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD writes: “Okay, so this is about taxed *and* God for M2. Big surprise.”

    It ought not to be that big of a surprise. It is one of the main sticking points in engaging climate stabilization actions worldwide.

  1495. #1496 BBD
    January 27, 2016

    “taxes”

    * * *

    Really all I want from anyone is (1) what do you believe and (2) why do you believe it. If I encounter a strong belief and good reasoning, I inspect my own belief and reasoning in the same realm.

    No you don’t.

  1496. #1497 Michael 2
    January 27, 2016

    BBD writes “No you don’t.”

    Correct; what sharp eyes you have! A more complete and thus more correct version follows.

    In the context of this blog thread and others similar to it, the principle piece of information i wish to have is (1) what you believe and (2) why you believe it.

    Since you have already adequately provided most or all of this some time ago, your continued participation with regard to me is at your convenience and pleasure.

  1497. #1498 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 27, 2016

    BBD: “Okay, so this is about taxed *and* God for M2.”

    And if I recall correctly, at base it’s about having an axe to grind with neurotypicals.

  1498. #1499 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    BBD “Why make things worse?”

    There is no “worse”. You are a binary thinker. There’s good, there’s bad. There is no better, there is no worse.

    A classic of hypocrisy.

  1499. #1500 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “in any jurisdiction in this country, that would not qualify as an expert someone who has testified before congress on the very same subject they are being proffered as an expert in”

    Putting someone up in court as an “expert” is one thing. Whether the judge or jury accepts them as sufficiently expert to help decide the issue at hand is another thing entirely.

  1500. #1501 Bernard J.
    January 27, 2016

    Btw, Marco, Chris Oneill, BBD, etc., if there was no evidence that Mann’s work was dishonest, fraudulent, etc., then why were there investigations and administrative hearings.

    Typical, another logical fallacy.

    Vexatious accusations are sufficient to instigate investigations, irrespective of any validity or otherwise of the accusation.

    This is why there are defence lawyers, and concepts such as “innocent until proven guilty”, and “false arrest”.

    Time and again you’ve shown in this thread that your strategy isn’t to establish the best objective facts, but to manipulate statements and people’s understandings in order to acheive the result that you desire. That might be all well and good for a lawyer who presses a case that in actuality doesn’t hold water, but in the science here we are talking about objective and empirical best understanding. Not lawyerly rhetoric.

    Mann didn’t commit anything even vaguely resembling fraudulent work. The planet is warming. Humans, through our carbon emissions, are the cause. This warming is serious for the ecology of the planet, and scientists around the world understand this and are desperately trying to engage the rest of humanity in an effective response because the failure of the capacity of the biosphere to sustain us.

    You are one more person getting in the way of that.

  1501. #1502 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “if there was no evidence that Steyn’s claim of fraud has a reckless disregard for the truth, etc., then why is he being sued for such.”

    Fixed it for you.

  1502. #1503 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “you are simply stating what you think libel law ought to be.”

    No. You are simply misrepresenting me. I am simply questioning how libel law, which I do not question, is applied to the facts.

    “If you”

    Spare me the hypotheticals.

  1503. #1504 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “you think people such as Spencer are “evil” because he reaches a different conclusion then you”

    Yet another blatant misrepresentation of the facts from you Dan.

    The models predicted 2015 would most likely be the same temperature as it actually turned out.

    Spencer is lying about that fact by claiming 2015 turned out cooler than the models predicted when it didn’t.

    Those are the facts Dan. Get a deck of cards and deal with it.

  1504. #1505 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    “Spencer has history.”

    Roy Spencer, 2008:

    I am predicting today, that the theory that mankind is mostly responsible for global warming will slowly fade away in the coming years, AS WILL THE WARMING ITSELF.

    I wonder how that prediction turned out?

    Unfortunately some people think Spencer is entitled to his own facts yet pretend it’s just his own opinions.

  1505. #1506 Chris O'Neill
    January 27, 2016

    Dan: “you said Steyn had a duty to make sure he knew what he was saying was true”

    You’re lying Dan. I did not say that.

  1506. #1507 Marco
    January 28, 2016

    “On reasonably concludes therefore that the majority of AGW advocates are going to be Democrats and Atheists. ”

    That would be quite unreasonable, actually. I’ll give you a hint why that is unreasonable: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/

    Also
    “The outlier is Hispanic Catholics with a whopping 77 percent manmade 15 percent natural acceptance of global warming. One could speculate all day why this is but Catholics have a strong guilt streak; “original sin” and all that which AGW plays into.”
    Again your speculation is quite poor. Apart from the fact the white hispanics group contradicts your speculation, a little bit further down the most likely answer is given: catholic hispanics are better aware of what the scientists are saying.

  1507. #1508 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Marco writes: “That would be quite unreasonable, actually.”

    Your mileage varies. It happens. Perhaps the audience here would participate in a survey?

    “catholic hispanics are better aware of what the scientists are saying.”

    Maybe, but they have a Pope that has told them what to think and do. How do you correct for that possibility?

  1508. #1509 Desertphile
    January 28, 2016

    “On reasonably concludes therefore that the majority of AGW advocates are going to be Democrats and Atheists [sic]”

    The vast majority of AGW advocates are Republican Party members and sociopaths.

  1509. #1510 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Desertphile writesw “The vast majority of AGW advocates are Republican Party members and sociopaths.”

    Well I might agree with the final part of your sentence but the first part is simply bizarre.

    Most of the AGW advocates aren’t Americans; they’re Commonwealth (Crown colonies): John Cook, Ken Rice, Miriam O’Brien, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Chris Tierney of the “ship of fools” fame.

    Some Americans: Ben Santer, Trenberth, Michael Mann, James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt. Are any of them Republicans? Probably not.

    Can you name an AGW advocate that is a Republican? I suppose it is possible. Well, actually, Jon Huntsman would qualify. He’s not much of an advocate however. Arnold Schwarzenegger is definitely an AGW advocate; not sure about his Republican bona-fides or the other thing you were writing about.

  1510. #1511 Marco
    January 28, 2016

    “Maybe, but they have a Pope that has told them what to think and do. How do you correct for that possibility?”

    a) The white catholics don’t have a pope?
    b) The survey was performed in August 2014, well before the pope’s encyclical was even rumored to contain anything about climate

  1511. #1512 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Marco “a) The white catholics don’t have a pope?”

    It is likely that white catholics have the same pope as Hispanic catholics.

    “b) The survey was performed in August 2014, well before the pope’s encyclical was even rumored to contain anything about climate”

    Now THAT is an interesting datum. Good catch. So what’s your reasoning that only Hispanic Catholics, and not any other kind of Catholic, subscribe to AGW?

    My take remains unchanged for now; Hispanic Catholics aren’t like (my sense of) American Catholics. There is no “Day of the Dead” festivals in Baltimore so far as I know.

    http://hispanic-culture-online.com/hispanic-religion.html

    “Religious transculturation simply means that elements of the conquerors saints and beliefs intermingled with the rituals and world views of the conquered”

    “Many homes in South America have special wall niches to place the images of saints, virgins and Jesus.”

    What I glean from this is veneration for authorities, which is very different from USA which tends to rebel against authority.

    So the order of my understanding might be backwards; the Pope might subscribe to AGW because he is a Hispanic Catholic.

    “Fully 43 percent of them say they are very concerned …
    The contrast with white Catholics borders on astonishing. Only 17 percent of the latter say they are very concerned.”

    http://marksilk.religionnews.com/2014/11/21/latino-catholics-concerned-climate-change/

    “Seventy percent of Hispanic Catholics who attend church regularly say their pastor often or sometimes discusses climate change but just 20 percent of white Catholics who also attend regularly say their pastor does.”

    “It is also one more reason that Hispanics vote Democratic”

    ” Sixty-two percent of Hispanics believe that people in poorer developing countries will be seriously harmed by climate change”

    And there it is. Poverty. It is unlikely that coffee bean farmers in Costa Rica have heard of Gavin Schmidt and choose to believe a gringo; but they can see devastation in their trees and it is easy to blame climate change (or the devil).

    There might also be a carrot dangling; 100 billion dollars of aid from the “rich countries”. All you need to do is say “yes” when Pew Research contacts an American Hispanic who has relatives in Costa Rica.

  1512. #1513 SteveP
    January 28, 2016

    People, in my experience, who vociferously refute the possibility of human enhanced global warming tend to be right wing authoritarians. They seem to get their marching orders from someone they consider to be an authority. Watching prominent right wing Catholics dispute the Pope on this is interesting because conservatives have paid a lot of lip service to God and religion, and continually claim some sort of moral high ground , and they have, till this point, put a lot of weight on the words of the Pope. But their flexibility in choosing whom they rank as the ultimate authority on climate change is interesting. Forget the fact that the Pope had college training in Chemistry and has a number of scientists working for the Vatican. Someone like Rick Santorum is more concerned about sticking with the story he shares with scientific illiterates like Ailes, FOX, Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh, Inhofe, and The National Review than he is with bucking papal authority. The whole right wing story seems to be that there is no climate effect from fossil fuel combustion, and that the whole climate change story is a hoax concocted by silly tree hugging alarmists and socialists. To me, that conservative story must come from a conservative authority higher than the Pope, and I would take that conservative authority to be the zillionaires of fossil fuel industry and all their money.

    Interesting coincidence that FOX has a large Saudi ownership.

  1513. #1514 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    SteveP concludes a long opinion piece with “Interesting coincidence that FOX has a large Saudi ownership.”

    I doubt it is any more meaningful than Al Jazeera buying Currents TV from Albert Gore Jr.

    But we’ve already revealed these bits at #1345.

    You could at least repeat yourself on a different thread.

    But then, so could I.

  1514. #1515 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    Chris: You are right, it was Bernard J that comment that Steyn had a duty to make sure he knew his statement was true before he said. This was in response to the Farber article.

    I apologize for the mix-up, although I would disagree with your comment that I am lying. This is a trend I notice with a few posters on here: if someone says something that turns to be erroneous, it is automatically presumed the person is lying (which presumes intent).

    Quite often, as in this case, it was a simple mistake. I read the comments quickly, and the were comments by you close by the Bernard J comment, and simply mixed it up.

    It is no different then when I overlooked steyn saying fraudulent in the post. I simply forgot that part of the blog, and corrected my mistake as soon as I became aware (and, rightly noted it does not change the analysis at all)

  1515. #1516 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    Chris, 1504. I have no idea why Spencer said that. Maybe he was relying on different methods. And frankly, I don’t care why he said it.

    What is disturbing, again, is your automatic presumption that he is lying. Isn’t it possible he is simply mistaken? Or, isn’t it possible he is relying on different models that reach a different conclusion.

    This is relevant because, under our first amendment law, people have to aright to opine about public figures, so long as the believe what they are saying is true.

    How do you know he is lying; i.e., that he knows the models correctly predicted 2015 temperatures, but said the didn’t anyway? Can you read his mind?

    Again, it is possible (assuming he is wrong, and I have no idea if he is), that he is mistaken.

    And it is this characteristic of you, BBD. etc.. which leads me to think you are younger because to automatically accuse someone of lying, instead of simply being mistaken, is incredibly immature.

    Most people don’t accuse others of lying just because they are wrong. They usually wait to have some evidence that the person actually knew what he was saying was false

  1516. #1517 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    Chris, here is Dr. Spencer’s logic regarding recent models. http://www.drroyspencer.com

    This is a year old, of course, and I have no idea if it he is right or wrong. It seems apparent that, either way, he truly believes what he says.

    The fact that you don’t notice the irony in your position is startling. You said Dr. Spencer is lying, i.e., dishonest. If Mann’s case is successful, and a precedent is set accordingly, you yourself could be subject to a libel lawsuit by Dr. Spencer for calling his scientific work dishonest (and, please, spare me with the notion that “lying” is different then “dishonest.”).

    This is why Mann v. Steyn is so important to free speech. If you truly think Spencer is lying, you should be free to say so. Spencer can defend himself in the court of public opinion.

  1517. #1518 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    And it is this characteristic of you, BBD. etc..

    Provide example quotes and comment numbers please. My recollection is that when you repeat false claims, I point out that you are being dishonest.

    So back it up – for once on the thread.

    Constantly misrepresenting others is tantamount to lying for rhetorical advantage.

  1518. #1519 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    What is disturbing, again, is your automatic presumption that he is lying. Isn’t it possible he is simply mistaken?

    There are only two possibilities:

    – Spencer is so shockingly incompetent as a scientist that nobody should listen to him

    – Spencer is lying

  1519. #1520 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    BBD: No, I am not dodging the question. I asked for a clarification by what you mean by “over-turned.” You say it means to have been shown to be “substantially incorrect.” By who? Any climate science. Sure, I will be happy to link to sources when I have a minute.

    If I can’t find any, I will say so.

    Now, you are dodging my question. When I said I will simplify the question, that wasn’t your question to me; that was my question to you.

    So, I will ask again: Do you think Steyn, or anyone else for that matter, is within their rights to disagree with the conclusions of the investigations (for example, like some people disagreed with verdict in the OJ murder trial)?

    Or, once an investigation is complete, is everyone in our society required to believe they are true (which is an especially dangerous notion with Mann’s investigations, because they were administrative not legal).

    Love hearing those crickets….

  1520. #1521 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    BBD: Btw, you asked why I think you are young. Simple, the behavior you demonstrate on this page. You demand everyone answer your questions, but when one is posed to you it is ignored.

    When clarification is asked, you accuse someone of “beating around the bush” or whatever.. .

    When the answer is given immediately, you whine.

    In other words, you act like the world revolves around you, which is characteristic of younger generations. At least, I hope you are young, because if not your parents did a piss poor job of raising you…

  1521. #1522 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    For what its worth, I think he’s Canadian. A sense of entitlement and government control is normal. This is his wish list from above:

    “I’d like to see an abrupt, permanent end to politicised denial. Then, serious mitigation. Large-scale build-out of low-carbon technology including solar, wind and nuclear, geothermal and tidal. Electrification of personal transport and large-scale energy efficiency and demand-side regulation.”

  1522. #1523 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    BBD: No, I am not dodging the question.

    You’re lying, Dan.

  1523. #1524 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    And here’s another one:

    I asked for a clarification by what you mean by “over-turned.” You say it means to have been shown to be “substantially incorrect.”

    Nope, at #1486 I said fundamentally incorrect which is quite different.

    You constantly misrepresent others. I’d call that lying. So would most people.

  1524. #1525 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    More lies:

    When the answer is given immediately, you whine.

    What answer? You never answer questions, Dan.

    What ‘whining’? Let’s have some quotes Dan.

    I think the reason why you *never* back up your false claims when I ask you to is because you can’t. Because they are false claims…

    This doesn’t make me young, Dan; it makes you a liar.

  1525. #1526 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    So, now that’s dealt with, let’s get back to the never-answered question:

    If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

  1526. #1527 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    BBD “So, now that’s dealt with, let’s get back to the never-answered question: If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?”

    I answered it above but I might as well copy and paste since the comment numbers jump around a bit.

    #1483 Overturned implies a binary situation: Mann vs Not-Mann.

    Since it is not binary, it cannot just be “overturned”; but neither does that mean it is 100 percent affirmed, as you have accepted by calling subsequent papers a refinement on it.

    Mann’s peers introduced their own hockey sticks. Similar but not identical. Obviously some *bits* were not used, or other bits used that Mann didn’t use; some process used or not used or used differently.

    But overturned? Good heavens. I’d pinch myself if “the system” overturned itself.

    New words:

    Assuming we all agree that MBH 98 was neither 100 percent correct and also not 100 percent wrong, how does that play into claims of deception or fraud?

    That’s a thing each person decides for himself and it is extremely variable. To use a relgion parallel; to a Born-again Christian, inerrantist with regard to the bible, no wiggle room exists. Change just one word in the bible and it loses its authority to that person. But to a new-age Unitarian the Ten Suggestions are adequate and it doesn’t have much authority anyway.

    Your personal judgement will be similiar in the sense that if you treat it as an opinion piece, well there’s nothing wrong with it and later opinions are almost the same anyway, no big deal. But if you treat it as scientific fact in every detail, and that scientific fact is used to move billions and then trillions of dollars, but it turns out not to be 100 percent pure, well that’s a deception. Now if it turns out that the deception is deliberate, then it’s fraud. That’s how I see it.

    It is even possible to be 100 percent true and still deceptive depending on presentation and purpose. I think such a thing is more common in sociology.

  1527. #1528 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    Dan,

    Having quietly watched these debates for many years, I have learned many things about certain posters. BBD (his name is Dominic) claims to be, and I have no reason to think it isn’t true, a retired, successful businessman in his mid to late 40s who lives in Great Britain. He was once a well known skeptical poster who has since turned into a prominent advocate (possibly not the best term and not trying to denigrate) and, frankly, he is well educated on the science and the literature. But he does appear lack the ability to separate the science from the legal side of this discussion much like others here. Which is likely why he won’t/can’t link to legal scholars and their opinions and prefers to argue the validity of the hockey stick which, as you rightly explain, really isn’t the issue at hand.

    US law is different. People from other countries and those not versed can really struggle with the nuances of the law and this thread is a testament to that. They really seem to have trouble and issue with the “public figure” component–which is crucial–despite Mann calling himself just that on his Facebook page.

  1528. #1529 Dan
    Las Vegas
    January 28, 2016

    BBD: He is one article, quoting a prominent scientist, saying the hockey stick was exaggerated.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/7589897/Hockey-stick-graph-was-exaggerated.html

    Again, it is not as simple as you make it. Overturned? what about Mcintyre? It is not a matter of being 100% right or 100% wrong. There are scientists, including climate scientists, statisticians, etc., who have criticism, without necessarily “overturning it,” although the criticisms cast doubts on it.

    Again, you view the world as black and white, and nothing is. Not even science is black and white.

    But, as I have said, I am not a scientist, not well-versed in scientific research (absent medical research, which even they I rely on medical experts). I really don’t care if Mann’s hockey stick is right or wrong.

    Is it that tough for you to grasp the basic concept that I am concerned about the free speech issues of Mann v. Steyn.

    You do recognize the differences

  1529. #1530 Dan
    January 28, 2016

    Dude, BBD, what is up with you accusing people of lying? Like I am supposed to remember exactly what you say in every single one of your posts or take the time to look them up. As to you whining, that is simply my opinion (just as it is your opinion that I lie, which I clearly don’t. If I was lying, why would I readily admit to my mistakes when I notice them, or they are pointed out to me? If I was lying, wouldn’t I have known it was a mistake to begin with).

    Btw, I am still waiting for my answer: Does Steyn, or anyone else, have the right to opine that they disagree with the results of Mann’s administrative hearings?

    Also, the article I just posted, above, is yet more evidence (although Steyn doesn’t need it) that his July, 2012 blog post about Mann did not entail a “reckless disregard for the truth.”

    I get it. You don’t want to discuss the legal issues because you don’t have a clue what you are talking about

  1530. #1531 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Dan wrote “BBD, what is up with you accusing people of lying? Like I am supposed to remember exactly what you say in every single one of your posts or take the time to look them up.”

    Yes, perhaps regrettably, that is exactly what you should consider if you wish to avoid “red herring” attacks on your arguments. “Mistake” becomes “Lying” and what is your proof that it is mistake rather than lying? There is none other than your word. Over time people will judge your character and so in the long run good character wins and people realize you make an occasional mistake.

    This whole thing about Michael Mann is just such a thing; find a flaw, let that flaw be the “red herring” that poisons the entire hockey stick and everything derivative (the legal concept is “fruit of the poisoned tree”).

    https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/fruit_of_the_poisonous_tree

    The lawsuits between Mann and Steyn are about character more than anything else (IMO), the actual truth of Mann’s hockey stick, and more particular his motivations for making it, will likely remain hidden. What is revealed is their “character” and from that people will choose to believe one or the other.

  1531. #1532 Dan
    January 28, 2016

    “Fundamentally incorrect” v. “substantially incorrect” Oookay. You remind of those knuckle-heads who try and act like lawyers by nitpicking every little thing, think that is how we doctors of jurisprudence act in the real world.

    We are on a blog, not an academic journal. Everyday language applies. Fundamentally incorrect and substantially incorrect have fundamentally the same substantial meaning. Aren’t you the one who tried to argue “fraud” and “dishonest” don’t mean the same things?

    Also, didn’t Steve McIntrye publish a study 10 years ago which brought the hockey stick into question?

  1532. #1533 Dan
    January 28, 2016

    “Fundamentally incorrect” v. “substantially incorrect” Oookay. You remind of those knuckle-heads who try and act like lawyers by nitpicking every little thing, think that is how we doctors of jurisprudence act in the real world.

    Mann would be provide of you: All you do is jump up and down, call anyone who dares to disagree with you a liar, refuse to recognize good people can disagree, refuse to acknowledge there is a difference between the scientific issues involving the hockey stick, and the legal issues of Mann v. Steyn; fail to recognize that courts don’t decide science, they decide law; fail to recognize that Mann’s hockey stick (as I said before) can turn out to be the greatest scientific discovery since Newton discovery gravity. IT. DOES.NOT.MATTER. IN. MANN’S.CASE. VERSUS. STEYN.

    Also, didn’t Steve McIntrye publish a study 10 years ago which brought the hockey stick into question?

  1533. #1534 Dan
    January 28, 2016

    I am proud of you, BBD, in 1519, you admit there is a possibility Spencer isn’t lying, and is just wrong (although you phrase it differently).

    This is important for your emotional development. People who disagree with you aren’t always bad people. I just glanced at Spencer’s blog, and I am not going to pretend I have a good grasp on it, but it seems to me he has a good-faith dispute on how to interpret various climate models….what a lying jerk…

    But, I am glad guys like you exist. Makes it easier for guys like me — calm, down to earth, reasonable, willing to engage in debate, willing to recognize that sometimes people disagree and that doesn’t make them a bad person — to get ahead. My wife (yes, the one that modeled and won beauty pageants in he 20’s) sure didn’t marry for my looks. She got sick of dealing with guys who have a personality similar to yours.

    Why are you so demanding and angry? Calm done…not everyone out there is lying just because they think differently then you

  1534. #1535 Dan
    January 28, 2016

    Sorry for some double posts- computer issues/ BBD, you want examples of your whining? I don’t have time to look up the quotes, but basically any comment in which you demand an answer to you silly question

    I will be happy to see what I can find, but can’t you recognize we are talking about two different topics? I am talking about Mann v. Steyn, you are talking about the validity of the hockey stick. Two very different things, and your refusal to accept that, while at the same time demanding that I answer your question, is whining.

  1535. #1536 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    Dan, are you a clown?

    What does an article in a right-wing newspaper have to do with the question I keep asking you?

    Is it it a scientific study? No.

    Is Prof. Hand a wee bit confused? Oh yes. You see, the blade of the hockey stick is the instrumental record not the palaeoclimate reconstruction.

    Also, didn’t Steve McIntrye publish a study 10 years ago which brought the hockey stick into question?

    Yes, and it has been very thoroughly debunked.

    Again, it is not as simple as you make it. Overturned?

    Yes, it is. If Mann’s work is fraudulent and deceptive then it is by definition also wrong.

    So the burning (and still unanswered question) is:

    If Mann’s work was deceptive or fraudulent, then why has it not been overturned by subsequent studies?

    ?

    Come on, Dan.

    Answer it.

  1536. #1537 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    BBD “If Mann’s work is fraudulent and deceptive then it is by definition also wrong.”

    A pedantic nit probably but wrong is not inferred by fraud or deception (IMO). On close inspection I see “Mike’s Nature Trick” as deception but not *wrong*. Whether it is also fraud depends on the intentions and motive he possessed at the time.

    But I am nuanced and I recognize the possibility that many people are not going to make this distinction; which also suggests an explanation of why many people are saying “deception” to imply wrong.

    It is a lot easier to demonstrate deception; just use MM’s own words.

    Proving wrongness is a whole different problem; somewhat orthogonal.

    Good deception often requires skillful use of truth.

    http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/12/deceiving-with-the-truth/

    “Paltering is when a communicator says truthful things and in the process knowingly leads the listener to a false conclusion. It has the same effect as lying, but it allows the communicator to say truthful things and, some of our studies suggest, feel like they’re not being as deceptive as liars,” said Todd Rogers, a behavioral scientist at HKS.

    I do this fairly often in small ways to throw Googlers off the trail. As I have visited or lived in nearly every state in the nation I can speak familiarly about them allowing Googlers to think I live there, or here; which is irrelevant to the topic but seems like a good idea where lunatics are concerned.

  1537. #1538 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    can’t you recognize we are talking about two different topics?

    I acknowledged that a very large number of comments ago, Dan. I told you that my problem with you was that you peddled contrarian talking points constantly and then claimed *falsely* only to be talking about the law when challenged. And so you do, every time, now included.

    My position with you is simple: confine yourself to the law and I will leave you alone.

  1538. #1539 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    #Patrick W

    But he does appear lack the ability to separate the science from the legal side of this discussion much like others here.

    Perhaps if you were to read Dan’s commentary as carefully as you have apparently followed mine elsewhere, you would know that *Dan* doesn’t distinguish between the legal and scientific very carefully at all. See #1536 for the latest of numerous occasions when I have had to remind him of this.

    Incidentally, if you go any further towards breaching my anonymity, I will inform Greg by email and ensure that you are banned forthwith.

  1539. #1540 Brainstorms
    January 28, 2016

    “US law is different. People from other countries and those not versed” in the principle of jury nullification will blather on like a bunch of know-it-alls, purporting to “know” the outcome of the Steyn libel trial, as though the jury is bound to follow the finer points of the written law.

    It is not so. They can (and may) find that Steyn is guilty regardless of what the text of the law reads. If the jury decides to find Steyn guilty, he is guilty, and none of the diatribe from Desperate Dan or his sidekick RickA have any bearing or likelihood of prediction on that outcome.

    This whole legal argument is a vacuous exercise in debate… And frankly, it’s lost its entertainment value now, too.

  1540. #1541 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Brainstorms writes “the principle of jury nullification … They can (and may) find that Steyn is guilty regardless of what the text of the law reads.”

    No. Jury nullification nullifies law, and where there is no law, there is also no guilt.

    Jury nullification occurs when a jury returns a verdict of “Not Guilty” despite its belief that the defendant is guilty of the violation charged. The jury in effect nullifies a law that it believes is either immoral or wrongly applied to the defendant whose fate they are charged with deciding.

    http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/zenger/nullification.html

  1541. #1542 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    M2

    A pedantic nit probably but wrong is not inferred by fraud or deception (IMO).

    No. This is science. If Mann’s work is fraudulent and deceptive then it is of necessity, incorrect. It must present false conclusions. If its results are essentially correct then it cannot be fraudulent or deceptive. It is simply correct.

  1542. #1543 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    BBD “No. This is science. If Mann’s work is fraudulent and deceptive then it is of necessity, incorrect.”

    I see your point and almost agree with it particularly where you place emphasis on “work”, the product, rather than the producer. Science is supposed to inform, a correct scientific work must necessarily inform all suitably literate readers in the same way.

    I suggest that deception is in the mind of the beholder; am I misled by what I see. That will be independent of your intention to achieve deception.

    With regard to my previous post about using truth skillfully, suppose that Michael Mann’s hockey stick had been carefully prepared and published without references to declines or any other red herring. What then? What does it mean? By itself it means almost nothing. It means the various proxies when chosen using his chosen method of choosing (PCA if I remember right) and aggregated produce the chart you have seen.

    Someone then gives it meaning and from that meaning engages action and that is where fraud and deception arise. How exactly do we go from hockey stick to polar bears falling from the sky and other scary stories?

    It is the case that a good scientific work can nevertheless be used by someone else, or even the scientist that produced it, to achieve deceptive goals. I have not made much in the way of judgment of Michael Mann; rather, I have been more critical of people who use his work for their own purposes, Albert Gore Jr being an example thereof.

    And yet his words seem to clearly indicate intention to deceive. Why would anyone seek to hide declines?

    Scientific American banned me pretty darn quick for merely pointing out to readers that his offer of data and program (a MATLAB program) would produce for them the same results he gets. Well of course it will, it is a computer program and it can do no other thing unless your computer is broken.

    So it was clear to me that Scientific American and its contributors are biased and won’t engage in reasonable conversation (and certainly not unreasonable conversation). They are pushing an agenda. Whether all of their contributors are consciously doing so is not so easy to say.

  1543. #1544 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    Lighten up Francis. I posted nothing about you that you haven’t posted yourself over the years. Including your first name. Happy to document that if you like. Don’t be such a pussy. You don’t like it I suggest you don’t post info about yourself. I don’t know any more about you so you can relax.

    You keep trying to make this about whether or not Mann’s study has been reproduced and substantiated. It. Doesn’t. Matter. If, and I’m not saying he did, Mann used bad data, but came to the correct result, it doesn’t change that he used bad data. So whether it has been followed by other studies showing the same result is moot in this case.

    I understand you don’t like the situation, but Dan has it right. Because Mann is a public figure, and he himself says he is, people can say quite a bit about him and his work, regardless if it is correct or not, if they believe it to be true.

    He, like you, needs to grow a pair.

  1544. #1545 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    Incidentally BBD, I don’t “follow” you or your posts. I read these threads–here and elsewhere–for entertainment and occasionally actual information. It’s like a long novel with many interesting characters. You are just one, albeit more prolific than most. I particularly enjoyed your evisceration of Wow/Blogger Profile at Eli’s. You are dedicated. And he is a complete idiot and not particularly helpful. But I digress…

    You may note I actually gave you credit for actually backing up your opinions with actual citations. Not many do. I don’t always agree with you but I respect that you generally know what you are talking about with regards to the science. With regards to US libel law? Not so much.

  1545. #1546 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    Patric W writes “I particularly enjoyed your evisceration of Wow/Blogger Profile at Eli’s.”

    I would like to see that, too, particularly if this is the “Wow” that hangs out at Barry Bickmore’s blog.

  1546. #1547 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    Brainstorms,

    I never said jury nullification wasn’t possible. You put those words in my mouth so to speak. Lot’s of things *could* happen. Hell, Steyn *could* admit he knew all along he was lying. But these things are unlikely. Equally (un)likely is a jury *could* find that the entire case is a sham and find for Steyn because he was forced to deal with it. In other words, they *could* actually have sympathy for Steyn based on the merit, or lack thereof, of the case.

    Lastly, if you’ve lost interest, why continue to participate?

  1547. #1548 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    Patrick W

    If, and I’m not saying he did, Mann used bad data, but came to the correct result, it doesn’t change that he used bad data.

    This is nonsense, of course. You don’t get the correct result with bad data.

    Then there’s the problem of subsequent studies using different data and different methodologies essentially validating MBH99. Let’s hear no more of this rubbish. Mann’s work was neither fraudulent nor deceptive which is why it has not been overturned by more recent research. This is a simple, robust test of the claim that Mann’s work is fraudulent and deceptive. That claim is demonstrably false. Which is why Dan will not answer the question.

    You keep trying to make this about whether or not Mann’s study has been reproduced and substantiated. It. Doesn’t. Matter.

    I’ve already pointed out that I’m not interested in the legal argument. Instead of misrepresenting the nature of the issue I have with Dan, read the thread, as I suggested at #1539. You are interrupting a conversation you do not fully understand.

    With regards to US libel law? Not so much.

    Where do I say that I do know anything about US libel law? Where do I argue it with the (non-libel) lawyers on this thread? Read the thread and stop misrepresenting me.

    Don’t be such a pussy.

    You must know by now that I’m hardly a ‘pussy’, since you have followed my commentary so very closely over the years*. Closely enough to have retained every single personal detail ever divulged by me or leaked by others.

    * Thank you for identifying yourself as a Deltoid lurker.

  1548. #1549 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    Michael 2

    I cannot imagine there is another.

    Here is one thread…

    http://rabett.blogspot.com/2015/11/resistors-are-cheaper-than-batteries.html

    There are others before that and one after where Wow (BP in this case) gets banned. And gets angry. It’s something to behold.

    Enjoy.

    As for me, back to the real world for a bit. Work to do and all that…

  1549. #1550 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Patrick W writes: “There are others before that and one after where Wow (BP in this case) gets banned”

    Wow became interesting to me in the same sense that the “dog that didn’t bark” is interesting. It is what Wow does not do that piques my curiosity; he does not write about himself. He’s a small attack dog that reacts to whatever is on the screen, but until there’s something on the screen, nothing!

    Evidence: He is wide but shallow in knowledge. Every topic expert here has commented on his errors but Wow turns it around and declares the expert wrong. If there’s any utility to Wow’s existence it is that he shows we are just words on a screen. A six year old is equal to a PhD, each can call the other “wrong” all day.

    George Orwell sums it up pretty well:

    “How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?”

    Winston thought. “By making him suffer,” he said.

    “Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own?”

    So it is about power, not community.

    That being the case, the entertaining thing to do is suggested by Orwell — always obey your own will and not his. Sometimes engage, sometimes not; unpredictably and on your own terms.

    This is also where my favorite non-argument comes into play, the non-sequitur. Since Wow reacts, toss him a non-sequitur and enjoy the show. Get a nice infinite recursion going, discuss the meaning of “meaning”.

  1550. #1551 BBD
    January 28, 2016

    M2

    And yet his words seem to clearly indicate intention to deceive. Why would anyone seek to hide declines?

    You are confusing Mann with Phil Jones. Please just stop.

  1551. #1552 Michael 2
    January 28, 2016

    BBD “You are confusing Mann with Phil Jones. Please just stop”

    So it seems. This is a pretty good place to stop.

  1552. #1553 Patrick W
    January 28, 2016

    BBD,

    Last I checked this thread is about the legal case between Mann and Steyn, not about the science. So your arguments regarding replication of the science are irrelevant. But you chose that path because it is one you can more easily argue. I have read the thread. All of it. You started to discuss the legal issues and moved goalposts to the science. I am not “misrepresenting” you. I am showing why your argument is moot with regards to the topic of the thread.

    As for “following your commentary so closely over the years” don’t flatter yourself too much. I read a lot. I remember what I read. Every “personal detail divulged by (you)” is just that. Nothing *leaked* by another. All you. Your name and your various details. And yes I read the funny farm that is Deltoid. And many others. You are prolific.

    Being a pussy? That’s exactly how you come off complaining about your anonymity and your threat to email Greg to have me removed. Thin skinned. I would agree you aren’t often that way, so why now? Not as if I can somehow “out” you. I don’t know you nor do I care. Simply adding context from years of reading.

    I am writing about the topic of the thread and how your comments pertain, or don’t, to that topic. My deepest apologies for thinking that was what was being discussed. As for butting in on your conversation, I was just providing some knowledgeable facts regarding who you were. I would hate for you to be *misrepresented* as a troubled and angry youth when that is very clearly not the case. You strike me as a stable and educated individual who has missed the plot in this particular case. My opinion. Like assholes, we all have them.

    I will now return to lurk mode which suits me better. Just a little amusement dipping my toe into the proverbial deep end.

    Good day…

  1553. #1554 Chris O'Neill
    January 28, 2016

    I have read the thread. All of it.

    Some people have a lot of time on their hands.

    I read the funny farm that is Deltoid.

    If you want to see some responses from mental cases, have a read of the responses to this article: http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2016/01/19/science-advances-one-funeral-at-a-time/

  1554. #1555 Marco
    January 29, 2016

    “Now THAT is an interesting datum. Good catch. So what’s your reasoning that only Hispanic Catholics, and not any other kind of Catholic, subscribe to AGW? ”

    I already pointed out: because they are aware of what the scientists say. An added factor may be that hispanics, by and large, are not yet defining themselves along political lines (at least not yet). That is, they are not so much following party lines.

  1555. #1556 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Marco “I already pointed out: because they [Hispanic Catholics] are aware of what the scientists say.”

    The implication is that everyone else is not aware. But your answer does not deny the possibility that others, maybe everyone, is “aware of what the scientists say” and choose not to believe them.

    Being aware of what scientists say may be a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition (if I am using those phrases correctly). In other word, merely knowing what scientists say is a fine thing, but why is a Hispanic Catholic persuaded by what “scientists say” where other Catholics are not?

    The article I linked shows that Hispanic Catholics get climate changed preached at them from the pulpit (70 percent report this), but non-Hispanic Catholics do not get it preached at them (20 percent report being preached about climate change).

    The implication therefore is that these parishoners are aware of what scientists say because (perhaps non-exclusively because) they have been preached it and not because 70 percent of Hispanic Catholics subscribe to Scientific American.

    A correct understanding of the mechanism suggests ways to reach and convince more people. Imputing magical scientific properties to Hispanic Catholics does not suggest any strategies to reach other people.

  1556. #1557 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Marco writes: “I already pointed out: because they are aware of what the scientists say”

    “In 2008 NSB reported that the world S&E article output between 1995 and 2005 grew with an average annual rate of 2.3%, reaching 710,000 articles in 2005.”
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/

    Well good on the Hispanic Catholics that know what scientists say!

    The very best I can do is know what a few scientists are saying on a few topics.

  1557. #1558 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    Patrick W

    Last I checked this thread is about the legal case between Mann and Steyn, not about the science. So your arguments regarding replication of the science are irrelevant.

    Thank you for confirming that you haven’t read the thread.

    Here’s a clue: follow my exchange with Dan:

    #477
    #478
    #483
    #489
    #525
    #539
    #548
    etc.

    As I said, you have inserted yourself into a discussion that you don’t fully understand. And now you are bluffing, which is unwise.

    I am not “misrepresenting” you. I am showing why your argument is moot with regards to the topic of the thread.

    As we have just seen, no thread with 1500+ comments on it adheres to the original topic. Stop making specious arguments. There’s enough self-serving rhetoric on this thread to sink a battleship as it is.

    Every “personal detail divulged by (you)” is just that. Nothing *leaked* by another. All you. Your name and your various details

    You shouldn’t have pushed on that door. At #1544, you said (my emphasis):

    I posted nothing about you that you haven’t posted yourself over the years. Including your first name. Happy to document that if you like.

    Where and when did I post my first name? Refresh my memory.

  1558. #1559 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    Patrick W

    You are correct. I *have* posted my first name before. Which was unwise, in hindsight. But there is no denying it. So, my apologies, and the necessary correction:

    Every “personal detail divulged by (you)” is just that. Nothing *leaked* by another. All you. Your name and your various details

    You shouldn’t have pushed on that door. At #1544, you said (my emphasis):

    I posted nothing about you that you haven’t posted yourself over the years. Including your first name. Happy to document that if you like.

    Where and when did I post my first name? Refresh my memory.

  1559. #1560 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    BBD “You are confusing Mann with Phil Jones. Please just stop”

    m2:

    So it seems. This is a pretty good place to stop.

    Took you a bloody long time (during which you wasted an awful lot of words) to learn that.

  1560. #1561 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Dan: “I just glanced at Spencer’s blog, and I am not going to pretend I have a good grasp on it,”

    to put it mildly

    “but it seems to me he has a good-faith dispute on how to interpret various climate models”.

    And how do you know this based on a “glance” at his blog for which you do not “have a good grasp on it”?

    Maybe he’s good at picking his arguments like you Dan.

  1561. #1562 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Dan: “not everyone out there is lying just because they think differently then you”

    You have a compulsion for making strawman arguments, Dan. Where does that compulsion come from?

  1562. #1563 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 29, 2016

     

    “Thank you for confirming that you haven’t read the thread.”

    Or the article apparently, which is about Congress and Steyn and is pretty open ended when it comes to the kinds of conversation that could be considered relevant–not that tangents are necessarily a bad thing. Further, Dan has baited this thread, and the previous one on Steyn, with denialist talking points. The whole “this is just about the law” crap is mostly just smoke and mirrors.

    Also, BBD hardly comes off as a “pussy” (seriously, what is this, a 1950’s high school parking lot?) even if he did over react. It sounds to me more like PW is some kind of a jack ass (which, btw, is a timeless fallback if you’re too pressed to come up with something original… jackass.)

    “If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him.”
    ― Cardinal Richelieu

  1563. #1564 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    “We are on a blog, not an academic journal. Everyday language applies.”

    Not according to you Dan. According to you the only thing that applies are citations of expert opinion.

    “didn’t Steve McIntrye publish a study 10 years ago which”

    Steve McIntrye published a paper in a rubbish journal 10 years ago with no valid scientific peer review and another paper in a reasonable journal but which has a very light level of review to help to allow it to publish a very large number of papers every year.

  1564. #1565 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Dan: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/7589897/Hockey-stick-graph-was-exaggerated.html

    Dan, didn’t anyone ever tell you anything about newspapers and believing everything?

    For a start that newspaper article can’t even get the facts right about its citations. It says “a 1998 paper by Prof Mann” and “the graph, that showed global temperature records going back 1,000 years” when it was the paper the following year that had the graph going back (nearly) 1,000 years.

    Hand was offering his personal opinion (and guess) when he claimed “Had they used an appropriate technique the size of the blade of the hockey stick would have been smaller,”

    Somehow, the appropriate techniques that have been used since 1999 didn’t manage to produce a smaller blade of the hockey stick. So poor old Professor Hand’s opinion that “an appropriate technique” would have made a “smaller” “blade of the hockey stick” was completely wrong and the good professor, if he knew enough about the subject he was commenting on, would have known that fact at the time and avoided making a claim that made him look a bit foolish.

    But thanks Dan for providing an example of how a statistician commenting outside their particular area of study can make a mistake and how it really is a good idea to not rely on such people.

    BTW, Professor Hand didn’t say Mann’s work was “fraudulent” either.

  1565. #1566 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    “The vast majority of AGW advocates are Republican Party members and sociopaths.”

    m2:

    Well I might agree with the final part of your sentence but the first part is simply bizarre.

    Maybe unintentionally, but AGW advocates nonetheless. For example, anyone advocating a relatively higher burning of fossil fuels in energy production is advocating for the AGW that such relatively higher burning of fossil fuels will produce.

  1566. #1567 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Chris O’Neill writes “AGW advocates nonetheless. For example, anyone advocating a relatively higher burning of fossil fuels in energy production is advocating for the AGW that such relatively higher burning of fossil fuels will produce.”

    Like I said, *bizarre*.

  1567. #1568 Dan
    January 29, 2016

    Actually, Chris, yes. My father is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist, so I am well-versed about not believing everything in the papers.

    Again, my point isn’t that he is necessarily right. It is that good people, even on scientific matters, can disagree. I can’t tell you how many times I have had two doctors look at a, say, a lumbar MRI and come to two totally different conclusions about the findings…

  1568. #1569 Dan
    January 29, 2016

    https://twitter.com/FriendsOScience

    I find this twitter thread interesting, even if I have no idea if what they propose is correct. What I agree with is the responses to others who, rightly, say science isn’t black and white, there is room for judgment, it is not determined by majority rule, and again, people can reach different conclusions with being “deniers.”

    Chris, you might think that journal that McIntyre published his article in was rubbish, but that is your opinion. Also, just because a journal is rubbish doesn’t make the article more or less true. As an example, the national enquirer would be considered rubbish by most. However, that doesn’t mean it got the John Edwards affair/love child standard wrong…

    it is a said day, indeed, when reasonable debate can’t occur. And, re: steyn, I am not necessarily for people calling referring to others in fraud, but in this case I do think there is sufficient justification for him to think that (whether it is true or not) based on the climate gate emails (even if illegally obtained), the opinions of Curry, Happer, McIntrye, et. al.

    The funny thing is that Mann, by his conduct, lends support to the notion that his work is suspect. People who are confident in their work don’t rely on lawsuits to shut up the opposition, to insult others who disagree, or seek to silence dissent. And, yes, plenty of scientists are on records as saying Mann engages in that type of conduct

  1569. #1570 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Dan: “here is Dr. Spencer’s logic regarding recent models. http://www.drroyspencer.com

    This is a year old, of course”

    This is laughable. You present something that is a year old in support of a claim about something that was still happening a month ago! (the temperature anomaly of the whole of 2015 in case you’ve forgotten.) How can you possibly claim that Spencer said something about the actual anomaly of 2015 a year ago!? No one knew what the anomaly of 2015 was a year ago.

    You’ll have to do a lot better than that Dan.

    “It seems apparent that, either way, he truly believes what he says.”

    The best liars are the ones who truly believe what they’re saying. But Spencer is not telling the truth nonetheless, however you want to play with it.

    “If Mann’s case is successful, you yourself could be subject to a libel lawsuit.

    One difference, at least, is that I’m stating the exact reason why I’m saying he’s lying. So I’m not trying to deceive anyone into thinking Spencer is lying. In my country that’s not defamation.

    So maybe not as ironic as you think, Dan.

  1570. #1571 Dan
    January 29, 2016

    https://twitter.com/FriendsOScience

    I find this twitter thread interesting, even if I have no idea if what they propose is correct. What I agree with is the responses to others who, rightly, say science isn’t black and white, there is room for judgment, it is not determined by majority rule, and again, people can reach different conclusions with being “deniers.”

    Chris, you might think that journal that McIntyre published his article in was rubbish, but that is your opinion. Also, just because a journal is rubbish doesn’t make the article more or less true. As an example, the national enquirer would be considered rubbish by most. However, that doesn’t mean it got the John Edwards affair/love child standard wrong…

    BBD, I am glad you acknowledge you don’t know much about US libel law (not that that is bad thing). I think we can agree, when it comes to science matters, you, Chris, etc., know far more then I. When it comes to US Libel law, the inverse is true.

    And, I have said all along my opinion re: Mann v. Steyn can change depending on the evidence produced during discovery. If, for example, Mann uncovers emails or witness testimony in which Steyn admits he knows Mann’s graph isn’t fraudulent (from before July, 2012, of course) then I would readily admit Mann’s case is good.

    I just think the odds of Mann obtaining said evidence is highly unlikely. Even if Steyn made those emails, chances are they are long gone. And witness testimony is not nearly as reliable.

    it is a said day, indeed, when reasonable debate can’t occur. And, re: steyn, I am not necessarily for people calling referring to others in fraud, but in this case I do think there is sufficient justification for him to think that (whether it is true or not) based on the climate gate emails (even if illegally obtained), the opinions of Curry, Happer, McIntrye, et. al.

    The funny thing is that Mann, by his conduct, lends support to the notion that his work is suspect. People who are confident in their work don’t rely on lawsuits to shut up the opposition, to insult others who disagree, or seek to silence dissent. And, yes, plenty of scientists are on records as saying Mann engages in that type of conduct

  1571. #1572 Dan
    January 29, 2016

    Chris, that might not be libel in your country, but interesting jurisdictional issues arise. You are commenting on a U.S. based website, on an American scientist’s work. Arguably, you have availed yourself to the laws of the United States, subjecting yourself to jurisdiction.

    Its been awhile since I looked at international jurisdiction authority. Although, admittedly, the above argument would be a long shot. If you were to come to U.S. soil, or territory, and make those comments, that would be a different story

  1572. #1573 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Dan: “Isn’t it possible he is simply mistaken?”

    Spencer has been in this game long enough to know all the details about surface and other types of temperature and how his “lower troposphere” temperatures are related to surface temperature. He should know that making an UNCONDITIONAL claim such as you quote is plainly deceptive or dishonest if he was really talking about something other than the surface temperature which he knows is what people really care about.

    This is one of the ways dishonesty works Dan. People like Spencer say something without making clear what they actually mean and without telling all the important facts, and in this case one of the most important facts (as is apparent from your impression). Spencer won’t tell you the whole story. He knows he’s creating a miscommunication and sucks in people such as yourself.

  1573. #1574 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    Since Dan is so interested in legal authority and won’t hear any criticism of it he can have this and take his own advice and not offer his opinion about it.

    Dan’s not interested in anyone’s opinions here on expert legal opinion and sure as hell I’m not interested in his opinion on expert legal opinion either.

  1574. #1575 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Chris O’Neill says “I’m not interested in his opinion on expert legal opinion either.”

    A good way to show disinterest is by not responding 😉

  1575. #1576 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    Dan

    The funny thing is that Mann, by his conduct, lends support to the notion that his work is suspect.

    And off you go again, peddling the Mann-is-evil meme. You just can’t help yourself, can you?

    If you stop, I will stop. How’s that?

    Perhaps Mann has just had enough of the orchestrated and apparently endless smear campaign waged against him by right-wing ideologues? Have you considered this? You should.

    Chris, you might think that journal that McIntyre published his article in was rubbish, but that is your opinion. Also, just because a journal is rubbish doesn’t make the article more or less true.

    Despite his very best efforts, Steve McIntyre was never able to demonstrate fundamental errors in Mann’s work. What *has* happened is that McI’s critiques of Mann have been shown to be flawed. What is puzzling is that anyone bothers to talk about them at all, these days. But the endless campaign about Mann isn’t really about science at all, is it? It’s simply an endless political hit job by the right, so even discredited carping by McI is still bandied about as if it had some (any) merit.

  1576. #1577 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    “But the endless campaign about Mann isn’t really about science at all, is it? ”

    He sees the light.

  1577. #1578 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    Dan

    Just imagine if this pack of demagogues and nutters went after you. It’s very easy to burble loftily about the court of public opinion, but what if they were pissing all over *your* professional reputation, year in, year out?

    How long would you stand for it? Ten years? Fifteen? Put yourself in Mann’s boots once in a while. All he ever did was science.

  1578. #1579 Patrick W
    January 29, 2016

    One last post then I’m back to just a viewer…

    Chris–“Some people have a lot of time on their hands.”

    The thread has been going since before Christmas. One need not “have a lot of time on their hands” to have read all the comments. But thanks for the attempt to get your jab in.

    OA–interesting handle to say the least–I find it funny you object to “pussy” but are fine with “jack ass” as they are quite similar in tone. I was simply surprised that someone with BBD’s chops that he would be so sensitive. FWIW, I prefer “asshole” to “jackass” if you’re shooting for an insult. Though neither really bother me coming from an anonymous poster.

    BBD,

    I’ll tell you what, I too will apologize. Though I don’t think it was “unwise” for you to give your first name–after all, how much can one glean from just that info?–it was unkind of me to mention it. I really only wanted to shed some light on who you were for context, particularly knowing you aren’t some young person spouting off nonsense.

    I agree that the science and the law are completely different, but the overall discussion, and the topic, leans more towards the discussion of why the science in this case really doesn’t matter. At least in my opinion. We can agree to disagree if/since you feel differently.

    With that said, I will indeed bow out, unless pressed to comment again. I must say I do admire your tenacity, despite the fact that, as I said, I don’t always agree with what you write. But at least you are consistent and rational.

  1579. #1580 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    Patrick W writes (of BBD) “But at least you are consistent and rational.”

    That he is; commendable traits. I appreciate your commentary as well.

    For what its worth, it made quite a difference in my estimation of BBD just having those tiny bits of information. Same with ATTP. Knowing who he is and what he does changes my attitude considerably and positively.

  1580. #1581 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    Patrick W

    I really only wanted to shed some light on who you were for context, particularly knowing you aren’t some young person spouting off nonsense.

    Thank you. I mistook your intention and we got off on the wrong foot as a result.

    Judging from what M2 says, you have done me a favour. I suspect that for some time he has pictured me very differently to how I am 😉 Possibly the same applies to Dan.

    the topic, leans more towards the discussion of why the science in this case really doesn’t matter. At least in my opinion. We can agree to disagree if/since you feel differently.

    As I’ve said, my argument with Dan is not over the law but over the way he mixes contrarian memes into his views on the law. And then claims not to have done so.

    I get the impression that we are slightly talking past each other. Such is the hell of blog comments. If I were properly rational and consistent, I’d have given up some time ago :-)

  1581. #1582 BBD
    January 29, 2016

    #1577 M2

    “But the endless campaign about Mann isn’t really about science at all, is it? ”

    He sees the light.

    Perhaps the darkness.

    There is nothing to suggest that Mann’s work has been used misleadingly (your #1543). Look at what MBH99actually *says* (emphasis in original):

    Conclusions

    Although NH reconstructions prior to about AD 1400 exhibit expanded uncertainties, several important conclusions are still possible. While warmth early in the millennium approaches mean 20th century levels, the late 20th century still appears anomalous: the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium. More widespread high-resolution data which can resolve millennial-scale variability are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached with regard to the spatial and temopral details of climate change in the past millennium and beyond.

    Subsequent work has confirmed this conclusion, not invalidated it. How can it have been used to mislead?

  1582. #1583 Michael 2
    January 29, 2016

    “Subsequent work has confirmed this conclusion, not invalidated it. How can it have been used to mislead?”

    My words are heresay since I do not consider myself misled, but a good successful mislead isn’t noticed anyway :-)

    Also, I have not completed enough study to really decide on the matter; that is both a weakness and a strength of the INTP personality type.

    What you are asking is a question of presentation, intention to mislead (if any), and by whom. We seem to agree that essentially the hockey stick is correct, especially if due regard is made to the (un)certainty of the various proxies that went into it.

    “What we did it was went in the night before and opened all the windows, I will admit, right? So that the air conditioning wasn’t working inside the room and so when the, when the hearing occurred there was not only bliss, which is television cameras in double figures, but it was really hot. …”

    “So Hansen’s giving this testimony, you’ve got these television cameras back there heating up the room, and the air conditioning in the room didn’t appear to work. So it was sort of a perfect collection of events that happened that day, with the wonderful Jim Hansen, who was wiping his brow at the witness table and giving this remarkable testimony.”

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/wirth.html

    From the PDF which I presume is the Wegman report:
    https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109hhrg31362/html/CHRG-109hhrg31362.htm

    Good morning and welcome. We convene this hearing today to consider questions that begin with and surround the reliability of two particular studies of historical temperatures that gained an extraordinary level of public prominence a few years ago, and recently featured in former Vice President Al Gore’s motion picture, “An Inconvenient Truth.”

    In 2001, the results of these studies were used to promote the view that the very recent average temperatures of the northern hemisphere were likely the warmest in 1,000 years. The temperature history results were portrayed in what is widely known as the ‘hockey stick’ graph, for its resemblance to the shape of a hockey stick. As a result, these studies are known as the “hockey stick” studies.

    With its relatively long and even trend for 900 years and then sharp up-tick during the 20th Century, the “hockey stick” graph effectively undermined what had been the prevailing view that we had experienced periods of similar or even higher average temperatures in the past – such as when the Vikings inhabited Greenland.

    The main advocate is thus Al Gore, former vice president of the United States. That makes him a political authority and his college degree is political science. The advocacy is through “An Inconvenient Truth”.

    Al Gore stood to make billions of dollars. His advocacy seems self-serving and that makes it suspicious. In my opinion, large numbers of people were wiling to doubt the hockey stick for that reason alone.

    It is also the case that making the medieval warm period disappear completely simply did not agree with the sense of history possessed somehow by many people.

    So that started endless arguments on whether MWP existed, and as it started to be shown to exist, whether it was regional. Well if that’s the region that most of us claim as heritage I am not sure I care what was happening in Tierra Del Fuego 800 years ago.

    Powerful political forces have been awakened from slumber. The most correct assumption to make is that everything is deceptive in some way. Lewandowsky calls it conspiracy ideation, and while his survey and report is crap, the underlying ideas are probably reasonable, to be held by reasonable people. That is true of your side as well imagining a vast oil-industry conspiracy. It might actually exist; but more likely a smaller conspiracy by each oil company since they are, after all, competitors to each other.

    Where government and science intersect it can get ugly. Modern science is almost invariably expensive and thus requires government financial assistance. But strings are attached, not usually explicit, to such funding. Consequently anyone with a lick of common sense is going to be suspicious of government funded research.

    Everyone challenges a report because of its funding! Shall global warming research be exempt from that suspicion? Yes, but it ought not.

    Intelligence goes with curiosity and curiosity with intelligence. While we have these arguments I watch for refinements on the science. Arguments stimulate scientists to develop refined methods and measurements.

    When the Catholic Pope starts asserting this and that on climate science I know that hell froze over. Why did he do that?

    But his purpose is poverty and he sees this as the ticket to do something about it; hundreds of billions of dollars every year in the hands of poor nations. What are they going to do with it? Build some fine churches among other things, for in those poor nations the Catholics hold strong sway.

    The Holy Roman Empire isn’t what it used to be but a few billion dollars would certainly extend its lifespan.

  1583. #1584 Chris O'Neill
    January 29, 2016

    m2: “It is also the case that making the medieval warm period disappear completely”

    You’re not telling the truth. The hockeysticks did not make the MWP disappear completely. It is still there, just probably not much warmer than it was in the early to mid 1940s unlike now when it is a lot warmer (0.6 degrees C) than the early to mid 1940s.

    “Well if that’s the region that most of us claim as heritage I am not sure I care what was happening in Tierra Del Fuego 800 years ago.”

    Of course, whether you care or not what happened in Tierra Del Fuego 800 years ago has nothing to do with whether there was a strong global MWP.

  1584. #1585 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “You’re not telling the truth.”

    Of course, and neither are you. No one tells the truth for the truth cannot be told.

    What matters is if a claim is approximately true or true enough for intended purposes.

    The links I provided report that MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period. I believe the report more than I believe you.

  1585. #1586 Julian Frost
    South Africa
    January 29, 2016

    Michael 2:

    When the Catholic Pope starts asserting this and that on climate science I know that hell froze over. Why did he do that?

    But his purpose is poverty

    A word to the wise: don’t assume about the motives of others and don’t pontificate on things you know nothing about. The Pope’s “purpose” is to lead the Catholic Church and to “bring people to God”.
    His purpose is NOT poverty, and your sideways insinuation that AGW is just a way to destroy the economy is unconvincing.

  1586. #1587 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    Julian Frost writes: “A word to the wise”

    Thank you for assuming I am wise. I make no such assumption about myself. I am intrigued that out of nearly 1600 comments, this is your second on this thread. What does it mean?

    “don’t assume about the motives of others and don’t pontificate on things you know nothing about.”

    You have one finger pointing at me and three pointing back at you. We shall see who knows nothing.

    “The Pope’s purpose is to lead the Catholic Church and to bring people to God.”

    Let us explore your claim.

    “Linking the issues of poverty, which has been a major issue in his papacy, and the environment, he insists that the world must hear both the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laudato_si%27

    Bringing the people to the Catholic God is likely his job title but it is not his immediate purpose. Bringing money to the poor is more his immediate concern. Linking climate and poverty is a fairly common “meme”, as revealed by the modern founder of this meme:

    Regarding Maurice Strong: “As a lifelong socialist, he saw the potential of the environmental movement to fight capitalism and introduce a system of global governance that would co-ordinate all human activity. ”
    http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/peter-foster-the-man-who-shaped-the-climate-agenda-in-paris-maurice-strong-leaves-a-complicated-legacy

    “your sideways insinuation that AGW is just a way to destroy the economy is unconvincing.”

    It certainly would be if I had intended for that to be my meaning. I cannot control for reader’s inability to parse what to me seems like plain language.

    The Pope is unlikely to want to destroy the economy. Rather, he likely wants a slice of it sent to poor countries, for he has written it, and if he wrote it, he probably wants it, although as you point out, I am not a mind reader and I suggest neither are you.

    As to destroying the economy, that’s also Maurice Strong, who wants to “fight capitalism”.

    “Seventy percent of Hispanic Catholics who attend church regularly say their pastor often or sometimes discusses climate change but just 20 percent of white Catholics who also attend regularly say their pastor does.”

    http://marksilk.religionnews.com/2014/11/21/latino-catholics-concerned-climate-change/

    I haven’t heard a word about climate change in my church.

    “I hope I’m not going to get castigated for saying this by my priest back home, but I don’t get economic policy from my bishops or my cardinals or my pope, Mr. Bush said.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/us/politics/popes-views-press-gop-on-climate-change.html?_r=0

    “The 13th annual Development & Climate Days in Paris will focus on ‘Zero poverty, zero emissions: tough talk on poverty and climate’.”
    http://www.iied.org/join-us-for-13th-development-climate-days-cop21

    I eagerly await how they intend to eliminate poverty and emissions at the same time. Pick one; not both, they are rival.

  1587. #1588 Marco
    January 30, 2016

    “But your answer does not deny the possibility that others, maybe everyone, is “aware of what the scientists say” and choose not to believe them.”

    Actually, implicitly it does. Yes, I know there are people here who *do* know what the scientists say, but still elect not to believe them (and then gladly elect to believe other scientists, just because they happen to say something that fits their ideology), but the data shows that catholic hispanics are much more aware that the scientists overwhelmingly agree, whereas others *do not*. That may well be because their priests inform them correctly.

    But I think our discussion has run its course. Your motivated reasoning is now layering so thick, I don’t think anyone can miss it.

  1588. #1589 BBD
    January 30, 2016

    M2

    It is also the case that making the medieval warm period disappear completely simply did not agree with the sense of history possessed somehow by many people.

    A standard and blatant contrarian misrepresentation. As is the paranoid notion that AGW is being used by the left for political advantage.

    I can’t be bothered with this rubbish any more. Believe whatever nonsense you like. Mercifully, it changes nothing.

  1589. #1590 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    PW: “One need not “have a lot of time on their hands” to have read all the comments.”

    If you don’t have that opinion then you won’t think it’s funny like I did.

  1590. #1591 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    Dan: “Chris, you might think that journal that McIntyre published his article in was rubbish, but that is your opinion.”

    Maybe it’s my opinion that such a lowly rated journal and a journal without valid peer scientific review can be accurately described as rubbish, but it’s still a lowly rated journal and a journal without valid peer scientific review.

    “just because a journal is rubbish doesn’t make the article more or less true.”

    Dear oh dear Dan, I guess you believe everything you read in the newspapers too. The world has a never-ending supply of papers published in rubbish publications. Why should we choose to believe this one? I want a positive reason for accepting this paper Dan i.e. peer reviewing scientists think it is worth reading, not an absence of negative reasons.

    “the John Edwards affair/love child”

    Wow! Now there’s a great piece of scientific research!

    “What I agree with is the responses to others who, rightly, say science isn’t black and white, there is room for judgment”

    You forgot to mention the room for saying others do fraudulent work Dan.

    “If, for example, Mann uncovers emails or witness testimony in which Steyn admits he knows Mann’s graph isn’t fraudulent”

    Or more generally, in which Steyn admits he doesn’t care if Mann’s graph is fraudulent or not.

    “I do think there is sufficient justification for him to think that based on the climate gate emails”

    The climate gate emails said nothing about MBH98/99 engaging in anything fraudulent. Your opinion is incompetent and reckless.

  1591. #1592 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    m2: “A good way to show disinterest is by not responding”

    That’s not what Dan does.

  1592. #1593 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    m2: “Like I said, *bizarre*.”

    Indeed. Republican Party members are bizarre for being AGW advocates.

  1593. #1594 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    Dan “If you were to come to U.S. soil, or territory, and make those comments, that would be a different story”

    Then again, you’d have to find an email saying I thought he was telling the truth.

  1594. #1595 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    Dan: “my point isn’t that he is necessarily right”

    It’s hard to know what your points are, especially when they are non-sequiturs.

  1595. #1596 BBD
    January 30, 2016

    M2

    The links I provided report that MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period. I believe the report more than I believe you.

    You are confused, misled and out of date.

    There was no global, synchronous ‘medieval warm period’ as warm or warmer than the present. See eg. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

    Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

    Which is what Mann was saying in 1999, only with much better data filling in the detail.

  1596. #1597 Desertphile
    January 30, 2016

    BatshitCrazyPerson: The links I provided report that MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period. I believe the report more than I believe you.

    BBD: You are confused, misled and out of date.

    Or lying. The clown is upset that M, B, & H did not include data in their paper that they didn’t have at the time. It’s like complaining that this morning’s newspaper deliberately left out next Sunday’s winning lottery numbers.

  1597. #1598 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    Desertphile says “It’s like complaining that this morning’s newspaper deliberately left out next Sunday’s winning lottery numbers.”

    I don’t see much of an advantage in knowing a week early that I did not win the lottery. I cannot tell if you are discussing me; it seems so at times but as I complain about nothing, probably not.

  1598. #1599 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    BBD writes “You are confused, misled and out of date.”

    So who isn’t? 😉

    “There was no global, synchronous ‘medieval warm period’ as warm or warmer than the present. See eg. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013)”

    Maybe. I don’t know. I am delighted that scholars are out on their boats and ice caps doing science and I have no reason to argue against (or for) Pages2K.

    For our purposes here what matters is what Mann and Steyn have said, written, and to an extent believed at the time and so I do likewise.

    For purposes of discussion it is interesting for each of us to go back in time and review our thoughts and words. My own thinking is more nuanced and better informed now as 2009. (Odd spell checker in Firefox; it seems to completely replace entire words now and then which I usually catch in the proofreading).

  1599. #1600 BBD
    January 30, 2016

    M2

    From the PDF which I presume is the Wegman report:.

    No. It’s the minutes of a meeting and in your confusion you are quoting an exceptionally biased and unreliable source (see below).

    The links I provided report that MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period. I believe the report more than I believe you.

    You are quoting the words of Ed Whitfield, who is a partisan politician and is misrepresenting the facts, as usual.

    * * *

    Representative Whitfield has long been a mouthpiece for the dirty energy industry during his tenure as the Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Energy and Power; a position that has earned him more than $900,000 in campaign donations from the oil, coal, and gas industries.

    There’s lots more. This, in particular:

    Now comes Whitfield, who is not only antagonistic to climate change, but who, also coincidentally, is heavily funded by coal, oil, railroad (they carry the coal) and automotive interests. During the last election cycle, Whitfield enjoyed contributions of from $1000 to $5000 from the political action committees of, among others: USEC (a nuclear fuels firm), railroad giants Union Pacific, CSX and Burlington Northern Santa Fe. His campaign was also supported by Coalpac, the Southern (coal) Company, Arch Coal and Peabody (coal) Energy. A further look into his funding reveals Whitfield was also supported by American Electric Power, Occidental Petroleum, Valero Energy, DTE Energy, Federal Lg&E Energy, the American Gas Association, Exelon, Sun, General Motors, the National Automotive Dealers Assn. and Rolls Royce, among others.

    You are being led by the nose by the representatives of vested interest. You should pay much closer attention to whose memes you pick up.

  1600. #1601 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    BBD writes: “You are being led by the nose by the representatives of vested interest. You should pay much closer attention to whose memes you pick up.”

    Maybe, but in what way does anyone here differ? Of course I pick up memes. They’re like cockleburrs. The dangerous ones are those you don’t realize have stuck to your pant legs and you discover it when you sit on the sharp spines.

    All advocacy has a source and a motive. Mark Wirth already had a motive when he staged James Hansen’s testimony. Is Mark Wirth really concerned about global warming and does he really blame humans? I have no idea; I only know what he claims. Albert Gore Jr? He doesn’t seem all that concerned about it. Leonardo DiCaprio? Good heavens no; he is building (or has built) a huge expensive sea level resort in Belize.

    My default assumption therefore is and remains the seeking of power, and the most power can be had by organizing all humans and then being on top of that food chain or pyramid.

    Since only one man can be at the very top, what about the rest? Well, they must be allowed to imagine, which happens easily enough, that they matter. They are organized around a cause, and if that cause cannot ever go away, be addressed or solved, and is integral to nearly every human, so much the better.

    It used to be religion.

    In a sense, it still is.

  1601. #1602 Bernard J.
    January 30, 2016

    Chris, you might think that journal that McIntyre published his article in was rubbish, but that is your opinion.

    Just stop and think for a minute what you’re saying.

    McIntyre published a couple of papers about someone else’s climate change methodology, one in an extremely dubious-quality journal and both that were subsequently shown to have little to no scientific merit, and yet the friends of the deniers like to point out that “McIntyre published…”, as if it means actually something important. On the other hand Mann and a suite of other professional climate experts have co-authored multiple ground-breaking papers, none of which have been refuted and all of which have been independently supported by the subsequent work of others, using multiple independent techniques, and in a range of the world’s best scientific papers, and yet the Denialati think that McIntyre’s work somehow trumps Mann’s and the rest of the scientific professionals’.

    There’s this thing called ‘parsimony’, which is generally required in any logically-robust process of scientific argument, and the reliance on McIntyre’s faff is an egregious failure of adhering to parsimonious inductive reasoning.

    …medieval warm period…

    This denialist refrain of “OMG, MWP!” is another failure of parsimony and logical reasoning. The original references to the mediæval warm period where not as refined as subsequent ones which, as BBD has patiently explained, indicate that there was no globally-synchronous MWP. Further, relying on early work (which the Denialati imagine suports their ‘case’) whilst ignoring the bulk of work that follows and which indicates something other than what they want it to be is cherry picking – a logical fallacy.

    But more than that, if there was a mediæval warm period it doesn’t refute the fact of human-caused contempory global warming. Worse though, if the mediæval warm period was as warm as the Denialati want it to have been, the direct implication is that climate sensitivity is at least as high as the best estimates of mainstream science, and likely higher.

    These arguments to try to imagine away the seriousness of human-caused climate change are without exception flawed and driven by ignorance, wishful thinking, ideology and self-interest. There are only two outcomes to business-as-usual addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere: either we wake up and do something about it NOW and suffer some harm but perhaps something to which future generation can at least partially adapt, or we keep on for a few more decades and evolution will remove the Denialatus genes that have infected our species… probably via the mechanism of extinction…

  1602. #1603 Michael 2
    January 30, 2016

    Bernard J. writes “McIntyre published a couple of papers about someone else’s climate change methodology”

    Short centered PCA (Principle Components Analysis) if I remember right.

    “one in an extremely dubious-quality journal and both that were subsequently shown to have little to no scientific merit”

    Quite right. He is a statistician doing statistics.

    “and yet the friends of the deniers like to point out that McIntyre published…, as if it means actually something important.”

    It means a lot to some people; part of The Game.

    “On the other hand Mann and a suite of other professional climate experts have co-authored multiple ground-breaking papers”

    Naturally so. I would hate to think I am paying for nothing! If they are professional then it is their job to do exactly that.

    “none of which have been refuted”

    Perhaps your definition of refuted varies from mine. But I’ll accept that, until I learn otherwise, none have been thrown in the trash or forced retraction.

    “yet the Denialati think that McIntyre’s work somehow trumps Mann’s and the rest of the scientific professionals.”

    In the realm of statistics he is superior to them. You are probably correct that only the Denialati thinks this, if we accept for purpose of argument that everyone that does not think as you think is Denialati.

    indicate that there was no globally-synchronous MWP.

    Well that’s quite an improvement over saying there was no such thing at all anywhere. :-)

    “if there was a mediæval warm period it doesn’t refute the fact of human-caused contempory global warming.”

    Quite right. So why are you pushing so hard for not a MWP? So what if there is? The current warming can be attributed to my automobile but clearly the MWP cannot. So what?

    “Worse though, if the mediæval warm period was as warm as the Denialati want it to have been, the direct implication is that climate sensitivity is at least as high as the best estimates of mainstream science, and likely higher.”

    You would likely be correct there, too. The cause of the MWP is not, so far as I know, known or asserted. It is a big unknown and ought to be studied for the obvious implication on climate sensitivity. If whatever caused the MWP were to happen concurrently with AGW, you’d get a double whammy.

    “These arguments to try to imagine away the seriousness of human-caused climate change are without exception flawed and driven by ignorance, wishful thinking, ideology and self-interest.”

    Maybe, but in what way do you differ?

    Global governance is also based on ideology and self interest and has been around since at least Plato. Decarbonization is simply the newest attempt at an old game. That’s not to say there’s nothing to it; a good story has some truth to it.

    “There are only two outcomes to business-as-usual addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere”

    Narrow minded thinking (*). The outcomes are infinite in variety and magnitude.

    * It is also the “fallacy of the false alternatives”. It is not for you to say what are the only two outcomes when in fact many probably exist.

    While I try to be nice and civil, in your case I make a small exception. You are like a child that imagines that by insulting others that you will get your way. Does it work? It must, sometimes, or you would not persist in doing so.

  1603. #1604 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    m2: “if I remember right”

    Nope. It was off-centred PCA. Maybe you should refrain from making comments about things you know very little or nothing about.

    “In the realm of statistics he is superior to them.”

    A bare-faced claim with no support.

    “”indicate that there was no globally-synchronous MWP.”

    Well that’s quite an improvement over saying there was no such thing at all anywhere”

    It would be if anyone was claiming there was no such thing at all anywhere. Your implication that anyone is saying this is false.

    “The cause of the MWP is not, so far as I know, known or asserted.”

    But you know very little about this subject indeed so the fact that you don’t know about this is of little, if any, significance.

  1604. #1605 Chris O'Neill
    January 30, 2016

    m2: “The links I provided report that MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period.”

    Are you being deliberately dense or what?

    Any “hockey stick” that McIntyre and McKitrick (MM) produced was NEVER used by them to claim that they had eliminated the medieval warm period. Quite the contrary in fact. Their interest was in the medieval warm period being undiminished in significance.

    But you’re entitled to be a clown making shit up m2.

    And I’m entitled to point out that you are a clown making shit up.

  1605. #1606 Bernard J.
    January 31, 2016

    Short centered PCA (Principle Components Analysis) if I remember right.

    See Chris O’Neill’s response above.

    He is a statistician doing statistics.

    He’s a statistician doing statistics incorrectly.

    And doing them incorrectly either incompetently, or deliberately…

    http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/mcintyre-mann-and-gaspe-cedars.html
    http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/what-steve-mcintyre-wont-show-you-now.html
    http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/upsides-down-and-backwards.html

    [Etc, etc…]

    “On the other hand Mann and a suite of other professional climate experts have co-authored multiple ground-breaking papers”

    Naturally so. I would hate to think I am paying for nothing! If they are professional then it is their job to do exactly that.

    Non sequitur.

    In the realm of statistics he is superior to them. You are probably correct that only the Denialati thinks this, if we accept for purpose of argument that everyone that does not think as you think is Denialati.

    See the links above.

    Given McIntyre’s errors (however they arose…) no rational person could state that McIntyre’s hockey stick analyses are “superior” to any work that he professes to rebutt.

    Well that’s quite an improvement over saying there was no such thing at all anywhere.

    Straw man. No one said that.

    So why are you pushing so hard for not a MWP?

    Straw man. I’m not. No one is.

    So what if there is?

    There is, and it shows that the modern warming is of even greater magnitude, so it doesn’t refute the human cause of this warming.

    And if the MWP is as warm as the denialists want it to be, then the direct corollary is that climate sensitivity is likely great than even the best estimate of professional scientists.

    That’s what.

    It is a big unknown and ought to be studied for the obvious implication on climate sensitivity.

    It is being studied. There are even some papers published on it…

    Perhaps you should familiarise yourself with the literature.

    Global governance is also based on ideology and self interest and has been around since at least Plato. Decarbonization is simply the newest attempt at an old game.

    Conspiracy ideation.

    “There are only two outcomes to business-as-usual addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere”

    Narrow minded thinking (*). The outcomes are infinite in variety and magnitude.

    * It is also the “fallacy of the false alternatives”. It is not for you to say what are the only two outcomes when in fact many probably exist.

    Not really, especially given the predication of my statement, which you seemed to miss.

    And you appear to be assuming that all the possibilities have roughly equal probablilities of happening, and human nature is such that we’re rapidly reaching a point where any mid-range outcome is simply going to evaporate. The effective choices are

    1) to act now, and with urgency, which will still result in harm for many people, generations, and species in the future, or

    2) to drag our heels as we seem to be indicating that we’re doing, which, given the rapidly increasing magnitude of subsequent action that would be required, leaves very little window for intermediate consequences.

    It’s cute that one as prone to logical fallacy as you tries to ping someone else for such, but your assertion about a fallacy of false alternatives* is really another version of the question of how many angels may fit upon the point of a needle.

    While I try to be nice and civil, in your case I make a small exception. You are like a child that imagines that by insulting others that you will get your way.

    If by having your illogic and errors of fact pointed out you feel insulted, that’s your problem, and not mine or anyone else on this thread who corrects you.

    And leave off with the speculation of what I imagine. You’re as wrong about that as you are about a lot of the things you say about climate change, and the inherent hypocrisy of your assumed moral high ground is not disguised by your patronisation.

    Of course, if you’re insulted by these truths as well, this could end up being turtles all the way down.

    [* Of course it also requires rational approaches to understanding words such as “if”, “business-as-usual”, and “probably”, but we’re straying back toward angel territory…]

  1606. #1607 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 31, 2016

    “Are you being deliberately dense or what?”

    M2 is a troll, one with a particular deficit that he probably can’t help.

    He will dribble on and on and on… more so if you respond to him.

  1607. #1608 Bernard J.
    January 31, 2016

    Ouch. One sticky key and a lot of tired copy/pasting and…

    Let’s hope I did better this time.

    Short centered PCA (Principle Components Analysis) if I remember right.

    See Chris O’Neill’s response above.

    He is a statistician doing statistics.

    He’s a statistician doing statistics incorrectly.

    And doing them incorrectly either incompetently, or deliberately…

    http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/mcintyre-mann-and-gaspe-cedars.html
    http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/what-steve-mcintyre-wont-show-you-now.html
    http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/upsides-down-and-backwards.html

    [Etc, etc…]

    “On the other hand Mann and a suite of other professional climate experts have co-authored multiple ground-breaking papers”

    Naturally so. I would hate to think I am paying for nothing! If they are professional then it is their job to do exactly that.

    Non sequitur.

    In the realm of statistics he is superior to them. You are probably correct that only the Denialati thinks this, if we accept for purpose of argument that everyone that does not think as you think is Denialati.

    See the links above.

    Given McIntyre’s errors (however they arose…) no rational person could state that McIntyre’s hockey stick analyses are “superior” to any work that he professes to rebutt.

    Well that’s quite an improvement over saying there was no such thing at all anywhere.

    Straw man. No one said that.

    So why are you pushing so hard for not a MWP?

    Straw man. I’m not. No one is.

    So what if there is?

    There is, and it shows that the modern warming is of even greater magnitude, so it doesn’t refute the human cause of this warming.

    And if the MWP is as warm as the denialists want it to be, then the direct corollary is that climate sensitivity is likely great than even the best estimate of professional scientists.

    That’s what.

    It is a big unknown and ought to be studied for the obvious implication on climate sensitivity.

    It is being studied. There are even some papers published on it…

    Perhaps you should familiarise yourself with the literature.

    Global governance is also based on ideology and self interest and has been around since at least Plato. Decarbonization is simply the newest attempt at an old game.

    Conspiracy ideation.

    “There are only two outcomes to business-as-usual addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere”

    Narrow minded thinking (*). The outcomes are infinite in variety and magnitude.

    * It is also the “fallacy of the false alternatives”. It is not for you to say what are the only two outcomes when in fact many probably exist.

    Not really, especially given the predication of my statement, which you seemed to miss.

    And you appear to be assuming that all the possibilities have roughly equal probablilities of happening, and human nature is such that we’re rapidly reaching a point where any mid-range outcome is simply going to evaporate. The effective choices are

    1) to act now, and with urgency, which will still result in harm for many people, generations, and species in the future, or

    2) to drag our heels as we seem to be indicating that we’re doing, which, given the rapidly increasing magnitude of subsequent action that would be required, leaves very little window for intermediate consequences.

    It’s cute that one as prone to logical fallacy as you tries to ping someone else for such, but your assertion about a fallacy of false alternatives* is really another version of the question of how many angels may fit upon the point of a needle.

    While I try to be nice and civil, in your case I make a small exception. You are like a child that imagines that by insulting others that you will get your way.

    If by having your illogic and errors of fact pointed out you feel insulted, that’s your problem, and not mine or anyone else on this thread who corrects you.

    And leave off with the speculation of what I imagine. You’re as wrong about that as you are about a lot of the things you say about climate change, and the inherent hypocrisy of your assumed moral high ground is not disguised by your patronisation.

    Of course, if you’re insulted by these truths as well, this could end up being turtles all the way down.

    [* Of course it also requires rational approaches to understanding words such as “if”, “business-as-usual”, and “probably”, but we’re straying back toward angel territory…]

  1608. #1609 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    Bernard J writes “question of how many angels may fit upon the point of a needle.”

    One.

  1609. #1610 BBD
    January 31, 2016

    M2

    Maybe, but in what way does anyone here differ?

    Well, *I* haven’t been conned by a bunch of demagogues and shills, nor am I confused about the state of scientific knowledge – which is my guide wrt the climate change problem. As opposed to lies and misinformation pumped out by the right because climate change is an existential threat to free market fundamentalism and so cannot be tolerated.

    Mann’s work wasn’t fraudulent or misleading. As such it would have been impossible to use it to mislead anyone. All these claims are part of a politicised counterfactual narrative that has been spun for decades now. You can deny this all you like, but it remains a matter of fact.

  1610. #1611 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    BBD writes “As opposed to lies and misinformation pumped out by the right because climate change is an existential threat to free market fundamentalism and so cannot be tolerated.”

    As Bernard J is quick to point out, “conspiracy ideation” :-)

    Climate change is a threat mostly to farmers. It has absolutely zero impact on free markets which, because they are free, adapt almost instantly to any change of any kind. The most skilled free marketers make money no matter what; they invented money and the rules by which the game is played.

    In my lifetime I have seen climate change quite a bit. I have never felt threatened by it.

  1611. #1612 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    Bernard J suggests an interesting philosophical question:

    “if you’re insulted by these truths as well, this could end up being turtles all the way down.”

    If no one feels insulted, is it really an insult? I recognize your intention; 50 shades of “I don’t like you” 😉

    I do not see any connection with insults and turtles.

  1612. #1613 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    Bernard J: Your comment on conspiracy ideation is amusing. Of course it is conspiracy ideation (duh!) but while you point your finger at me, three more are pointing at you (or at least you and your cohort).

    Fossil fuel industry funded delialism conspiracy ideation.

    It is abundant just on this thread alone.

  1613. #1614 Obstreperous Applesauce
    January 31, 2016

    See? Dribble, dribble, dribble…

  1614. #1615 Desertphile
    January 31, 2016

    I am utterly astonished that pro-reality people here are still replying to the paranoid conspiracy alarmists, even when the pro-reality people know it is a waste of time. Remember: the louder the monkey, the smaller its balls. It really is okay to ignore emotionally ill people.

  1615. #1616 BBD
    January 31, 2016

    [With apologies to OA, who is, of course, correct]

    As Bernard J is quick to point out, “conspiracy ideation”

    As I pointed out, a matter of fact.

    Brulle (2013) Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations

    The great irony here is that you, the individualist Libertarian who looks down with disdain on ‘the herd’ is the one who is being manipulated and suckered. And you won’t believe anyone who tries to warn you about it.

  1616. #1617 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    BBD “The great irony here is that you, the individualist libertarian who looks down with disdain on the herd…”

    I love the herd. I’m simply not part of it and it wasn’t even my choice. Through my school years and the first 15 years in the Navy I was not invited to parties and didn’t want to go anyway. And yet, I was always nearby, usually out of sight but engaged in services of varying importance.

    I am still not invited to parties but sometimes crash one just because I need to see and be seen. In one sense that is what I am doing here. This isn’t my party but the people here are representative of forces and decisions that will touch my life so I have a duty to be here.

    “…the one who is being manipulated and suckered.”

    I have not denied the possibility. It is nearly certain. My choice is which master to serve.

    “And you won’t believe anyone who tries to warn you about it.”

    Warnings serve little purpose. You could try being a bit more precise than just this oil company wants to keep selling you oil and spreads fear, uncertainty and doubt. Well, so does Al Gore and the Piece of Green.

    Its a lot like a well-matched game of chess; trading piece for piece until at the end nobody can win because neither side has the necessary capital pieces to accomplish it.

    Stalemate. And so it might soon become. I would rather not see stalemate.

  1617. #1618 Brainstorms
    January 31, 2016

    The great irony here is that you, the individualist Libertarian who looks down with disdain on ‘the herd’ is the one who is being manipulated and suckered. And you won’t believe anyone who tries to warn you about it.

    (To use a trite blog meme…) “This”.

    Now, watch him dribble, dribble, dribble in denial of THIS, too.

  1618. #1619 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    Brainstorms wrote “Now, watch him dribble, dribble, dribble in denial of THIS, too.”

    Sorry. Wrong script. I was on page 17 but you are on 13. I missed the part where I am supposed to deny BBD. He’s likely correct, nearly certain to be so. The implication is that you and he are not being suckered and manipulated whereas I know that I am and usually by whom.

    We make choices in our lives to allow it in exchange for employment, security, or good old patronage.

    Several social systems exist, each of which is sufficient for its place of evolution. They don’t play well together. So long as they remain separate then no problems. Socialism is a high-latitude phenomenon that does not play well in temperate zones and not at all in the tropics where it invariably becomes a simple dictatorship. The dictators love it of course (Cuba, Venezuela, central Africa).

    It was, and seems to continue to be, an arrogance of the Commonwealth to export its idea of social democracy everywhere on Earth. How’s that going?

  1619. #1620 Bernard J.
    January 31, 2016

    Climate change is a threat mostly to farmers. It has absolutely zero impact on free markets which, because they are free, adapt almost instantly to any change of any kind. The most skilled free marketers make money no matter what; they invented money and the rules by which the game is played.

    Climate change is a threat to global ecosytems It’s a threat to the people who rely on the produce of such ecosystems, and also those who rely on the produce of those “farmers” who are apparently only those “mostly threat[ened]”…

    Climate change is a threat to communities, and to nation states, and indeed even to “free markets”, because such markets are in fact never “free”, and not only are they not free but they are captive to the irrationality of human greed and self-interest, to the extent that these qualities are reflected in the algoithms of computer-based trading.

    Watch what happens to the “free market” when there’s an international water war, or a severe drought that damages a significant portion of the First World’s food supply.

    OA’s right, of course. It’s just troll crap from you.

  1620. #1621 Michael 2
    January 31, 2016

    Bernard J. wrote “Climate change is a threat to global ecosytems”

    It *is* the ecosystem. Whatever it does it is still the ecosystem.

    “It’s a threat to the people who rely on the produce of such ecosystems”

    Yes; it is a threat to people. Use that first next time.

    and also those who rely on the produce of those farmers who are apparently only those mostly threat[ened]…

    A very good point. Cities. Millions of people that do not grow their own food, make their own clothing, don’t even make their own iPhones. Cities are extremely vulnerable to many things, most of all a loss of fossil fueled transport (food, people, material), fossil fueled heating and night lights.

    Hurricane Katrina gave the United States a taste of things to come in the form of an oil price shock.

    “Climate change is a threat to communities, and to nation states, and indeed even to free markets, because such markets are in fact never free”

    This threatens a free market: Centrally controlled economy, an important part of global governance. Merchants have always been agile.

    “and not only are they not free but they are captive to the irrationality of human greed and self-interest to the extent that these qualities are reflected in the algoithms of computer-based trading.”

    Ah, I see. Now it is anti-capitalism. Why is it that fear of climate change is in the same book with anti-capitalism?

    “Watch what happens to the free market when there’s an international water war”

    Say what? Free market vanishes in any kind of war except for the purveyors of the materiel of war.

    or a severe drought that damages a significant portion of the First World’s food supply.

    Yes, anything “Malthusian”. Perhaps I will offer to fix all that for you for only 100 billion dollars. By the time you realize it isn’t going to work I will have stashed or spent that 100 billion; maybe propped up a few dictatorships somewhere.

    “OA’s right, of course. It’s just troll crap from you.”

    😉

  1621. #1622 BBD
    February 1, 2016

    M2

    This threatens a free market: Centrally controlled economy, an important part of global governance.

    Oh please. Wittering about global governance is pretty much giving up any remaining pretense of seriousness. We are now into full-blown New World Order tinfoil hattery and I can’t be bothered.

    But I am interested to know if this fear of an imaginary pan-global socialist takeover conspiracy is at the heart of your contrarianism. Is it?

  1622. #1623 Michael 2
    February 1, 2016

    BBD “But I am interested to know if this fear of an imaginary pan-global socialist takeover conspiracy is at the heart of your contrarianism. Is it?”

    Too many adjectives. I’ll see if I can sort it out: No, yes, no, yes. Mixed..

    Decomposed and answering clauses:

    1. Imaginary: No. Nothing imaginary here.

    2. Global socialism: It is the stated purpose of many men, and perhaps some women, to impose global governance. I have provided sufficient links above.

    3. Conspiracy: No. If it is published and a stated goal then it cannot very well be a conspiracy.

    4. What you probably mean by your words is pretty close to the reason for my opposition to global governance. It will and must become totalitarian as more and more social functions are assigned to functionaries that do not answer to the public, but to their employer, the government; which in turn answers to the chief executive thereof. Keep in mind that the worst threat Europe faced last century was elected.

    I oppose global governance because I am sure it will not work, it cannot work. Many experiments have failed; all of them have failed or are now failing; each with huge costs in capital and human life.

    The Commonwealth simply cannot learn this lesson. It is in your DNA to try and try again to export your idea of a perfect world. On a small scale (very small, Iceland in other words) it can work, but even then only for fewer than three generations of humans, the time it takes to forget what it took to create that civilization and instead milk it, bleed it, for its wealth by persons not interested in maintaining it.

    About this road that Europe has been traveling for a long time and the United States is only starting down. Liberty? Wazzat? I am unsurprised that you have no cultural grasp of the concept, for it ceased in England with the Romans, if indeed it ever existed. But the cultural foundation of the United States is in large part Saxon, so somewhere in your distant cultural memory must be a time when your ancestors were permitted to defend themselves, and their nation, with something scarier than keys or hairspray:

    Weapons: As you probably know, you are not allowed to carry a personal armoury of knives, knuckle-dusters or other weapons to defend yourself. However, a person being attacked has every right to defend themselves with reasonable force and with any means at their disposal. That includes keys, rings and hairsprays.

    http://www.bedfordshire.police.uk/tackling_crime/protecting_you/personal_safety/protecting_yourself.aspx

    Well sign me up for some capsaicin hairspray! That’s sure to repel rapists and robbers. Or maybe not.

    I mention it because disarming the citizens is an essential precursor to totalitarianism. You must be disarmed in fact and in mind.

  1623. #1624 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 1, 2016

    Chris: If the statements were made by a public person, then yes, that person would have to prove you knew the statements were wrong. My point is, according to the standard you seem to be advocating (that simply being wrong is enough), would subject some here, particularly Greg, to a libel suit from steyn (for calling him a racist, for example).

    And it really is funny that you accuse me of using non-sequiters while doing exactly that. When did I ever say the Edwards love child investigation was scientific? You stated that articles that appear in certain, non-respected publications cannot be trusted. I disagreed, saying each article has to be judged on its own merits, and gave an example of an investigation in a non-respected outlet that turned out to be correct. Now, if you had said that “SCIENTIFIC articles appearing in non-respected SCIENTIFIC publications cannot be trusted…” then you would have a point. But you didn’t limit your comment in that manner….

  1624. #1625 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 1, 2016

    Desertphile, I am glad to see you acknowledge that a few “free-market” scientists think the hockey stick is fraudulent. Last time I checked, science is decided by majority rule.

    Also, it is difficult to see the relationship between one’s economic theories and their thoughts re: the hockey stick.

    Steyn had a good article up over the weekend, discussing his views as a pro-free speech purist, and expressing dismay over National Review’s actions in this case (saying they are relying on more technical, procedural arguments then getting at the heart of the matter. That is, if Mann wins, the right to free speech, thought and debate will essentially cease to exist. The United States, which bills itself the “home of the free” will provide less free speech protections then many other western countries.

    He also, rightly, notes the irony that NR, an ideological magazine, is shying from this fight while objective media, recognizing the mortal threat to the freedoms the media relies on, has come out in full force in support.

  1625. #1626 Desertphile
    February 1, 2016

    Dan: … ‘free-market’ scientists ….”

    Scientology scientists.

    Astrology scientists.

    Chemtrail scientists.

    Tarot card scientists.

    Crop circles scientists.

  1626. #1627 dean
    February 1, 2016

    1. Imaginary: No. Nothing imaginary here.

    How unsurprising it is that in addition to knowing nothing about science you are a loony conspiracy monger.

  1627. #1628 Michael 2
    February 1, 2016

    dean writes “How unsurprising it is that in addition to knowing nothing about science you are a loony conspiracy monger.”

    Unsurprising? I am dismayed that you judge your opponents in advance of possessing knowledge about that person.

    Anyway, I will try to remember “loony conspiracy monger” as one of my many talents. I wish more of your talent was on display.

  1628. #1629 Chris O'Neill
    February 1, 2016

    Dan, thanks for completely ignoring that the world has a never-ending supply of rubbish papers published in rubbish publications.

    And the question of why should we choose to believe this one by MM? (Even MM want to disown the title of their crap paper “CORRECTIONS to the Mann et. al. (1998)..”. These days MM just want to claim it shows shortcomings in MBH98, not that it actually “corrects” the reconstruction as they claim in figure 8 of their paper.)

    And that I want a positive reason for accepting this paper i.e. peer reviewing scientists think it is worth reading, not an absence of negative reasons.

    And also for ignoring that the climate gate emails said nothing about MBH98/99 engaging in anything fraudulent and that your opinion that they do is incompetent and reckless.

    I’ll leave you to your silly non-sequiturs. It’s telling that you haven’t disagreed about them.

  1629. #1630 SteveP
    Slightly South of My Climate Zone
    February 1, 2016

    Geez… this is still going on? Awesome.
    So just to re-establish the topic of this entry, Mark Steyn, a successful right wing ideologue with some sort of a degree or training in musical theater, is being sued for saying nasty things about a climate scientist, which is a story in and of itself. But more interestingly, Mr. Steyn was also recently called as a witness at a US Senate hearing on climate change, even though he doesn’t know diddly squat about climate change. Greg Laden then wondered it the majority in this subcommittee intentionally provided a litigant in a law suit with the opportunity to argue their case. Which is an interesting idea.

    Maybe presidential candidate and committee member Cruz and others on the majority side of the committee gave Mr. Steyn the opportunity to testify because 1) Steyn has a stentorian voice, 2) Steyn’s presence makes for good political theater, and right wing vote gathering is largely about image and very little about solid fact, and 3) when the aging king of American right wing radio finally looses all his hearing due to Oxycontin abuse, or when he finally corks off from having smoked too many Havana cigars, Mr. Steyn stands to win Limbaugh’s throne. So maybe Cruz and company are scratching Steyn’s back, planning for the day when they can use Steyn as a mouthpiece for their own awful agenda.

    Now, I know that my right wing friends will counter my claim that Mr. Steyn DOESN’T know diddly squat about climate, by insisting that Mr. Steyn DOES know diddly squat about climate. But I am not uncompromising, I am not an ideologue. If you can show me some evidence to support your position, maybe I can be persuaded that Mr. Steyn DOES know diddly squat about climate.
    Have a nice day.

  1630. #1631 Michael 2
    February 1, 2016

    SteveP writes “finally looses all his hearing due to Oxycontin abuse”

    loses!

  1631. #1632 Chris O'Neill
    February 1, 2016

    Dan: “My point is, according to the standard you seem to be advocating (that simply being wrong is enough)”

    “Seem to”?

    You just can’t give up making misrepresentations, can you Dan? You’re careless and a waste of time.

  1632. #1633 RickA
    United States
    February 1, 2016

    SteveP #1629:

    A breath of fresh air.

    Thank you for bringing us back to the subject of the post!

    It doesn’t matter if Mr. Steyn knows diddly squat about climate.

    An opinion writer can voice his opinion about a person, a scientist and his science in an opinion piece. If Steyn voiced an opinion he cannot be found libel for defamation.

    It is Dr. Mann who has to prove Steyn’s writings are not opinion. Not to the other posters here – but to the Court (on summary judgment) or the jury (if this case gets to a jury).

    After Dr. Mann meets that burden of proof – Dr. Mann next has to prove that Mr. Steyn’s statement of fact (because we are now assuming it is not opinion) was false. Dr. Mann bears the burden of proof for this as well.

    This is what Mr. Steyn said:

    “Not sure I’d have extended that metaphor all the way into the locker-room showers with quite the zeal Mr Simberg does, but he has a point. Michael Mann was the man behind the fraudulent climate-change “hockey-stick” graph, the very ringmaster of the tree-ring circus.”

    Steyn was referring to the quote by Mr. Simerg (also being sued), part of which is:

    “Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science that could have dire economic consequences for the nation and planet.”

    Let us assume that Dr. Mann can prove that Steyn’s statement that his hockey stick graph was fraudulent is indeed false.

    I have provided many reasons in this thread why I think this will be difficult – but I will not bore you.

    Finally, Dr. Mann has to prove that Mr. Steyn acted with actual malice – a very very difficult standard – especially if Mr. Steyn believes what he wrote (I am pretty sure he does – but hey I am not a mind reader, so we will have to see how this shakes out at trial).

    I think you can see from the foregoing that Mr. Steyn’s knowledge of climate science is not relevant to any issue in this trial.

  1633. #1634 Chris O'Neill
    February 2, 2016

    “It doesn’t matter if Mr. Steyn knows diddly squat about climate”

    unless you’re a US taxpayer who is paying for the time of the US Senate to be wasted listening to someone who knows diddly squat about the subject at issue.

  1634. #1635 SteveP
    February 2, 2016

    It is a big problem that big science and big government can be hobbled by a wily, wasteful, and waste full US senator with a corporatist agenda. Science don’t seem to get no respect ’round here unless it supports somebody’s big bottom line and some politicians next campaign.

    Happy Ground Hog day. Anecdotal science and baseless superstition at its finest.

  1635. #1636 Brainstorms
    February 2, 2016

    Well, SteveP, Rush Limbaugh is a big fat ass, so does that count as “somebody’s big bottom” line?

    Happy Ground Hog Day to you, too. And now for more repetitious, inane, vacuous dribble from the anti-science air heads… Over and over and over and over again…

  1636. #1637 Michael 2
    February 2, 2016

    Brainstorms, having nothing to contribute, writes: “And now for more repetitious, inane, vacuous dribble…”:

    “Rush Limbaugh is a big fat ass”

  1637. #1638 RickA
    United States
    February 2, 2016

    SteveP #1635:

    How does Steyn’s opinion piece hobble big science and big government?

    I think you are reaching on that one.

  1638. #1639 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 2, 2016

    Chris Oneill, #1629: Incompetent and Reckless? Please explain, not only why you disagree with my opinion, but how my opinion is incompetent and reckless. Do they not contain phrases such as “Mike’s Nature Trick” and “Hide the Decline.”

    The irony here is you are living proof of the free-speech advocates supporting Steyn. For whatever reason, you (and Mann, for that matter) are not capable of engaging in mature, respectable debate. You can’t simply disagree with people, you have to label them “liars,” and find their opinions “incompetent,” “reckless,” etc.

    Thank you for proving why this case is important, not so much for science, but for free speech. It is sad, in this day and age, that such a sizeable portion of western society is incapable of engaging in dignified debate. It is fine, and even healthy, to disagree and debate important matters.

    It is sad when, instead of engaging in healthy debate, one side resorts, at best, to name-calling and personal attacks, and at worst tries to silence those they disagree with

  1639. #1640 Dan
    February 2, 2016

    Chris, you say I misstate what your position is regarding free speech; well, here is your chance to enlighten your fellow commentators. Do you think Steyn is within his rights to call Mann’s work fraudulent, if Steyn believes that is the case?

    Do you think Mann’s case should be viable (we will leave to the experts to determine if it is, indeed, viable. I am more interested in your opinion)? Under what circumstances should a public figure be able to recover for libel?

  1640. #1641 Dan
    February 2, 2016

    Chris: Did you actually listen to Steyn’s testimony before the U.S. Senate? First of all, he was invited to speak, and simply accepted same. More importantly (and you would know this if you actually listened to his testimony) he specifically declined to offer scientific opinions. In his opening statement, he said he would defer to his esteemed colleagues, Drs. Curry and Happer, to offer those opinions.

    He was called to testify about an area he is well-versed: free speech. Specifically, he was asked for opinions regarding the tactics of the global warming proponents to shame, sue, silence, harass, etc., those who dare to question the relationship between carbon emissions and global warming.

    And, having just written a best-selling book on the subject, he was more then qualified to offer his opinion regarding that important issue.

    The point of his testimony is that, in a federal republic with representative democracy, it is dangerous if one side of an important issue engages in a variety of tactics, including bogus legal actions, to silence debate. He also brought up the obvious point that, while big climate likes to use lame expressions such as “#kochfunded,” etc., it is actually the climate scientists who have a financial conflict of interest because continued public funding depends on the conclusion that global warming exists and is man made.

    Dr. Spencer had a great article about this, saying that climate scientists, such as Mann, have an interest in reaching certain conclusions to keep the federal gravy-train rolling.

    At least when the Koch brothers, or even Exxon, fund research, it is private funds. It is one thing for the a private person or entity to use their own money as they see fit; it is very different if my money, via my taxes, is used to fund research with an inherent conflict of interest.

  1641. #1642 Dan
    February 2, 2016

    Desertphile, I am not sure of those free market scientists, or what those groups even are. I was thinking more along the lines of the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC), which as an environmental think tank dedicated to finding free-market solutions to environmental issues.

    A great example, I think, is Tesla. If an electric care can be developed that is as practical as a traditional automobile, most people who buy it will do so not out of some overriding concern for the environment, but because not having to pay for gasoline helps their bottom line.

  1642. #1643 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 2, 2016

    RickA: You are, of course, absolutely correct that Steyn’s knowledge of climate science is not relevant in the Mann v. Steyn trial. Also, to go even further, the issue of whether Mann’s hockey stick was indeed fraudulent is likewise not relevant. The relevant issue is whether Steyn believed it was fraudulent in July, 2012.

    A perfect example is Jerry Falwell’s case vs. Larry Flynt. Whether or not Falwell was, in fact, a sexual deviant was not relevant.

    Another good example is the George W. Bush Air National Guard records. It was determined that the docs Dan Rather relied on were fake. But, at the time the story aired, Rather believed the were legit. So, his speech was protected.

    Incidentally, that is a perfect example of how this case should play out. Instead of running to the courts, Bush let the issue play out in the court of public opinion. Ultimately, Rather was disgraced and ended up losing his job.

    There is no reason, if Mann is correct, that the same couldn’t happen here. If Steyn’s comments are so outrageous, it will eventually become known and Steyn’s career will be ruined.

    Mann is actually helping Steyn be trying to silence him. Outlets like the NYT, NBC, etc., aren’t generally fond of Steyn. But Mann’s attempts to silence Steyn put them on the same team because they are smart enough to realize that if Mann can silence Steyn, it is only a matter of time before someone with different ideology then the NYT uses the same tactic to silence it..

  1643. #1644 BBD
    February 2, 2016

    #1641 Dan

    He also brought up the obvious point that, while big climate likes to use lame expressions such as “#kochfunded,” etc., it is actually the climate scientists who have a financial conflict of interest because continued public funding depends on the conclusion that global warming exists and is man made.

    Dr. Spencer had a great article about this, saying that climate scientists, such as Mann, have an interest in reaching certain conclusions to keep the federal gravy-train rolling.

    This argument presupposes that there is *any* chance that the conclusions that global warming exists and is man-made are incorrect. Since the standard scientific position has endorsed both conclusions for some time now, the suggestion that climate science is gaming the system is obviously nonsense.

    it is very different if my money, via my taxes, is used to fund research with an inherent conflict of interest.

    You aren’t talking about the law anymore, Dan 😉

    And your argument is specious, since there *is* no inherent conflict of interest. See above.

    This is what I object to in your commentary. You peddle contrarian talking points…

    And then deny it…

  1644. #1645 Chris O'Neill
    February 2, 2016

    “it is dangerous if one side of an important issue engages in a variety of tactics, including bogus legal actions, to silence debate”

    A blatant strawman Dan. No one is trying to silence debate. The point is that there are limits to how reckless someone can be in what they say.

    “At least when the Koch brothers, or even Exxon, fund research, it is private funds.”

    At least you acknowledge that Koch brothers and Exxon have an interest in denying that they are helping to cause a problem.

  1645. #1646 Chris O'Neill
    February 2, 2016

    “Is Steyn within his rights to call Mann’s work fraudulent, if Steyn believes that is the case?”

    Maybe, but we don’t know if he believed it or he just didn’t care what the truth was.

  1646. #1647 Desertphile
    February 2, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: Maybe, but we don’t know if he believed it or he just didn’t care what the truth was.

    In libel litigation it doesn’t matter.

  1647. #1648 Chris O'Neill
    February 2, 2016

    “Mike’s Nature Trick”

    The word “trick” does not necessarily mean fraudulent. “Trick” can mean a technique which has nothing to to with hiding in any way whatsoever and indeed MBH98 says in figure 5b:

    ACTUAL DATA (1902-1995)

    along with the RECONSTRUCTED (50 YEAR LOWPASS)

    What was supposedly hidden in MBH98?

    “Hide the Decline” was used in some other publication that Mann was not responsible for and doesn’t necessarily mean something is being deceptively hidden anyway.

    So trying to claim that those quotes show that “Mann’s graph” is fraudulent is plainly incompetent and also reckless for ignoring what the other side says.

  1648. #1649 Chris O'Neill
    February 2, 2016

    Dan: “The irony here is you are living proof of the free-speech advocates supporting Steyn.”

    Absolute rubbish Dan. What I said about what you said Spencer claimed was not reckless. I checked the data. That is not being reckless.

    “For whatever reason, you (and Mann, for that matter) are not capable of engaging in mature, respectable debate.”

    You’re pathetic Dan. You are shamelessly dishonest. Simply pointing out that you are shamelessly dishonest is not being immature unless you think pointing out the facts can be immature.

    “It is sad, in this day and age, that such a sizeable portion of western society is incapable of engaging in honest debate.”

    Fixed it for you Dan. And that applies to you BTW.

    “It is fine, and even healthy, to disagree and debate important matters” and also accuse others of being fraudulent, according to you Dan. Maybe even recklessly accuse others of being fraudulent but you haven’t yet made that clear one way or the other yet Dan.

    “It is sad when, instead of engaging in healthy debate, one side resorts, at best, to dishonesty and strawman arguments, and at worst tries to accuse those they disagree with of fraudulent deception.”

    Fixed it for you Dan.

  1649. #1650 Chris O'Neill
    February 3, 2016

    “Dr. Spencer had a great article”

    Speaking of (the endlessly reminding Dr.) Spencer, it’s interesting to read a possible source of Dan’s claim about Spencer claiming that 2015 was cooler than model forecasts (Dan doesn’t like to cite sources for his claims apparently). What a shameless piece of cherry-picking and apples with oranges comparisons that is. Not only that, but Dr Roy believes he’s clairvoyant with a title like “2015 Will Be Record Warm in Surface Temperatures…But Still Below Model Forecasts”.

    Well, 2015 turned out to be the same (in GISTEMP at least) as the average CMIP3 model forecast. So Spencer’s clairvoyance turned out to be a pile of crap. But being a pile of crap doesn’t prevent gullible ignoramuses like Dan from thinking it’s “interesting and worth discussion”.

  1650. #1651 Bernard J.
    February 3, 2016

    It is sad when, instead of engaging in healthy debate, one side resorts, at best, to name-calling and personal attacks, and at worst tries to silence those they disagree with

    Said without the slightest hint of irony… perhaps that was split along with the infinitive.

    Says a lot.

  1651. #1652 Julian Frost
    Gauteng East Rand
    February 3, 2016
  1652. #1653 Marco
    February 3, 2016

    “it is actually the climate scientists who have a financial conflict of interest because continued public funding depends on the conclusion that global warming exists and is man made.”

    This is, of course, a load of humbug. It is an understandable complaint by those who cannot get funding for their own poor research, but still humbug.

    What is important to get money is *uncertainty*. If I want to get money to show what already is known, I get none. If I can argue well enough there is a knowledge gap that is important to fill, I am much more likely to get money.

  1653. #1654 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 3, 2016

    Marco: Actually, it is “uncertainty” in how to fix the problem, not “uncertainty” that there is a problem. what experience do you have procuring federal funds for research?

    I think I will take the word of someone who has been there, done that, and acknowledged the pressure he and his colleagues were under to overstate the issue to get said funds.

    In legal terms, your opinion is speculation. Dr. Spencer’s is a percipient witness with first hand knowledge.

    gee, I wonder who to believe?

  1654. #1655 Dan
    February 3, 2016

    Chris: When did I ever say Dr. Spencer was right? I merely pointed out his opinion without commenting on it (and freely admitting I have neither the time nor the inclination to figure for research into its validity).

    The point is you and various other posters claim people like Steyn’s opinions are made up out of think air. I am simply reminding you that, no, there are professional scientists on whom Steyn, et. al. base their opinions

    You may disagree with the opinions, but the fact is they exist

  1655. #1656 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 3, 2016

    “Debate”

    I was watching American Experience last night about the murder of James Garfield, and was struck by part concerning Dr. Bliss. Here you have a doctor whose filthy practices essentially facilitated the death of the President by septicemia. This at a time when germ theory was already understood by the medical community. Sounds familiar.

    The Trial. The debate so far is pretty much pointless. There is too much that we don’t know, hence ‘discovery’ etc. (Dan’s knee-jerk gloss based on some ideologic, bumper sticker, free speech something-or-other assertions notwithstanding.)

    Science. AGW is real and dangerous.THERE IS NO DEBATE. See the IPCC.

    Policy. There is plenty of room for debate.

    Politics. THERE IS NO DEBATE, THERE IS A WAR. A war that scientists didn’t ask for or want but was dumped on their doorstep anyway.

    Get it?

  1656. #1657 Michael 2
    February 3, 2016

    Obstreperous Applesauce says “AGW is real and dangerous.THERE IS NO DEBATE.”

    Agreed. 1600 comments are not a debate. It is six people restating each his belief over and over.

  1657. #1658 Marco
    February 3, 2016

    “Marco: Actually, it is “uncertainty” in how to fix the problem, not “uncertainty” that there is a problem.”

    ?? Then why would climate scientists get funding? Problem known, let’s pour our money into those who come with solutions! In reality we know from a physical point of view exactly what we need to do.

    “what experience do you have procuring federal funds for research?”
    I am a working scientist. I apply for funding every year, often multiple times. And like the vast majority of scientists, my success rate is well below 10%. Unlike Spencer, I don’t start whining that this is because I am not overstating the problem. In fact, at least once I got a rejection *because* I overstated the problem, according to both reviewers.

    “I think I will take the word of someone who has been there, done that, and acknowledged the pressure he and his colleagues were under to overstate the issue to get said funds.”

    If you mean Spencer, could you please point out where he claims he personally felt pressure to overstate the issue to get said funds? And perhaps ask him to provide direct evidence that there was such pressure?

    Of course, the funny thing is that Spencer works for a thinktank, where it is very likely that he indeeds get pressured to come with the ‘right’ view, from a political point of view.

    “In legal terms, your opinion is speculation. Dr. Spencer’s is a percipient witness with first hand knowledge.”

    In non-legal terms, Spencer is just trying to find excuses for his failures

    “gee, I wonder who to believe?”

    I know you will believe Spencer, because his views fit your own ideology. Your behavior on this thread has made that plenty clear to me.

  1658. #1659 Dan
    February 3, 2016

    Marco: I linked the article in which Spencer made that claim upthread (unlike most people here, all opinions I offer are backed up by those who know).

    And, it is the same people who got funding to assess global warming that get the funding to address it. Also, if new studies show global warming was overstated, or there is a pause, funding levels have the potential to decrease.

    If you are going to rely on your experience, please state what area of science you work in, what types of funds did you apply for, through what committee, and what the funds were for.

    If you want to remain anonymous, please link to a public statement by someone in the know, as I did upthread

  1659. #1660 Dan
    February 3, 2016

    #OA: “See IPAA” You mean the same IPAA in which Michael Mann, and others, participated in? Given “Mike’s Nature Trick,” and his fear of honest scientific debate, resorting instead to lawsuits and calling people deniers, you will have to excuse the people who chose not to give the IPCC much credence.

    There is a legit debate about the “Pause.” I know you don’t think the pause exists, and can point to studies showing same. Others do believe the pause exists, and can likewise point to studies.

    That is why it is a debate. Usually, the first people to say the debate is over are the ones losing said debate. After all, if you are winning it, you shouldn’t have any issue with the debate remaining open

  1660. #1661 Dan
    February 3, 2016

    Global warming may very well indeed exist. And, it may be man-caused. Or, it may exist and man’s activity might have little, if any, relationship. Good people can disagree on this.

    My understanding is that most climate scientists agree that climate warming exists. Some, admittedly a minority, believe it is more the result of natural factors.

    What is wrong with a healthy debate? Why are you so quick to say “the debate is over?” If mankind is responsible for climate change and the extreme fluctuations in weather it causes, how do you explain the Little Ice Age, Ice Age, Middle-Ages Warming Period (yes, according to some, it exists).

    I have never seen a group of supposed intellectuals so afraid of honest debate…says a lot more about the climate cartel then it does about those with a healthy dose of skepticsm.

  1661. #1662 Michael 2
    February 3, 2016

    Dan writes “I have never seen a group of supposed intellectuals so afraid of honest debate…says a lot more about the climate cartel”

    No one here represents a significant group. Consider Maslow’s Hierarchy, or an adaptation of it. At the very pinnacle are very few people, maybe just one, and he is “self actualizing”. He does research because he loves it. It is more than a hobby, more than a profession, he follows it where it leads.

    I have no idea who he is and neither do you.

    Under him are several layers of people climbing, or not, to that apex. Each layer requires some sort of distinguishing characteristic, something achieved while climbing but something yet to reach.

    The second layer I will suggest is your tenured professors. They would love to do pure research but they have a house mortgage or rent, maybe a family, maybe just want a digital camera and need money. So while they pursue pure research on the side, sometimes, they must cater to the money.

    Down a level *is* the money, and it is also climbing a ladder, but at the apex of that one is power; a world leader.

    These two hierarchies overlap at the money layer and create rivalry for all other pyramids that need money and power.

    Down at the bottom are the billions of people struggling to survive. Their surplus, scant as it is, feeds the entire pyramid which has more than one apex.

    The science pyramid has no power, the power pyramid has no science so they reluctantly cooperate but at the same time are trying to trick each other into giving up resources. Both of them scare the proletariat by saying “great danger!” but they also try to trick each other.

    So where are we, the readers of this blog? Probably smack dab in the middle of the struggle. We are at the Game layer, winner take all: “Many losers, only one winner, odds are you are a loser” (DeMotivator poster!)
    https://www.pinterest.com/pin/205054589254021989/
    http://despair.com/products/defeat

  1662. #1663 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 3, 2016

    Well, Dan ‘good’ people can and do think all kinds of things that aren’t reasonable. 

    You’ve already indicated that you’re not interested in educating yourself on the ins and outs of the subject. And it’s clear that you can’t be bothered to be skeptical about the ‘skeptics’. Apparently it’s enough for you that they have opinions; and that those opinions appeal viscerally to your disposition is just a bonus– because let’s face it Dan, nothing unreasonable would ever enter your head.

  1663. #1664 Marco
    February 4, 2016

    “Marco: I linked the article in which Spencer made that claim upthread (unlike most people here, all opinions I offer are backed up by those who know).”

    Actually, in this thread I have shown multiple times that the references you provided actually did not say what you claimed they said.

    In this case you did not provide a link, but knowing Spencer’s prior comments about this, I know that even if you do find a link, you will find that Spencer does not provide any evidence for his claims. None. Zilch.

    “And, it is the same people who got funding to assess global warming that get the funding to address it. Also, if new studies show global warming was overstated, or there is a pause, funding levels have the potential to decrease. ”

    No, if there is a pause there will be a flurry of research proposals trying to understand *that*. “Woohoo!”, say a lot of scientists, “something new to investigate.”

    “If you are going to rely on your experience, please state what area of science you work in, what types of funds did you apply for, through what committee, and what the funds were for.”

    I am not going to give that information, after one stalker decided to harass my employer, and knowing that stalker still goes around these same threads.

    “If you want to remain anonymous, please link to a public statement by someone in the know, as I did upthread”

    Enjoy the following:
    http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/05/accusations-that-climate-science-is-money-driven-reveal-ignorance-of-how-science-is-done/
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7092614.stm
    (note in particular Stefan Rahmstorf’s comment)
    Also, if funding were such a strong incentive, and the outcome should be politically desirable, do you have any explanation why the conclusions remained the same regardless of whether a Democrat like Clinton or Obama was in power, or Republicans like Bush Sr and Jr? Who notably didn’t like the existence of AGW one bit.

    I know, it’s an inconvenient question for all those who claim there has been federal funding bias towards alarmism…

  1664. #1665 Marco
    February 4, 2016

    “I have never seen a group of supposed intellectuals so afraid of honest debate”

    Honest debate? We’ve been there before, Dan. There is no honest debate when one side just makes up stuff. It’s the creationist-evolutionist debate all over again. When supposed skeptics investigated the surface record, their result was the same (BEST) as that of all those supposedly biased and incompetent others (NOAA, HADCRU, JMA, GISS). The solution by those who had lauded the BEST initiative? Oh my, they must be wrong, ’cause how can they come to the same conclusion? We had already decided the others were wrong, so BEST must be wrong, too!

  1665. #1666 BBD
    February 4, 2016

    Dan

    You aren’t talking about the law *again*. Pants on fire, old chap. You are not a ‘good’ person, it seems.

    As is your habit, you are peddling contrarian talking points, all of which are rubbish:

    Global warming may very well indeed exist. And, it may be man-caused. Or, it may exist and man’s activity might have little, if any, relationship. Good people can disagree on this.

    All evidence shows that GW exists and is human-caused. None suggests a significant natural component. So good people *cannot* disagree on this unless you think it is ‘good’ to deny the scientific evidence and argue a counter-factual. I think that’s evidence of either mental illness or dishonesty, not ‘goodness’.

    My understanding is that most climate scientists agree that climate warming exists. Some, admittedly a minority, believe it is more the result of natural factors.

    But this tiny handful of contrarians has *never* managed to produce an evidence-based scientific argument, so they are (correctly) sidelined by the mainstream, which deals in scientific evidence. Only contrarians take them seriously even though they have no evidence-based scientific case. Contrarians are behaving foolishly, even dishonestly. They are not ‘good’ people.

    What is wrong with a healthy debate? Why are you so quick to say “the debate is over?”

    Because it is. Only contrarian noise remains, and that is not a debate. Insisting otherwise is dishonest rhetoric designed to admit contrarian noise to the public discourse. Which is not the sort of thing ‘good’ people do.

    If mankind is responsible for climate change and the extreme fluctuations in weather it causes, how do you explain the Little Ice Age, Ice Age, Middle-Ages Warming Period (yes, according to some, it exists).

    Climate changes in response to net forcing change. There’s no mystery about any of this. The current driver of major net forcing change is CO2. In the past, it has been solar variability, volcanic aerosols (LIA; MCA) and orbital dynamics (Pleistocene glaciations).

    I have never seen a group of supposed intellectuals so afraid of honest debate…says a lot more about the climate cartel then it does about those with a healthy dose of skepticsm.

    Contrarian noise isn’t a healthy debate. It’s noise. For example, you’ve had a fair bit of referenced explanation on this thread, including links to scientific evidence that there was no global, synchronous ‘mediaeval warm period’ as warm as or warmer than the present. You have totally ignored it and simply continued making a noise. That’s not the behaviour of a ‘good’ person. It’s dishonest contrarian gamesmanship.

  1666. #1667 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    BBD writes: “So good people *cannot* disagree on this”

    Thank you for clarifying what I have suspected for a long time. Morality is agreement.

    The herd is Good. There is no Bad in the herd.

    For Dan — this is why there is no debate, why there cannot be debate. Would a Catholic priest debate with a Satanist? It is extremely unlikely; it serves no purpose and gives legitimacy to the enemy.

    For a debate to exist, someone must have a different idea or opinion or belief; the very existence of which threatens the herd. A different idea is bad.

    I’ll admit I find that concept totally alien and require frequent reminders of its existence and prevalence.

  1667. #1668 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    BBD wrote “Please read the actual comment instead of the version that exists only in your imagination. Don’t misrepresent me this egregiously again, please.”

    I copied and pasted your words; there is no imagination. however, I accept the criticism of misrepresenting the purpose or point of your comment while I maintain that underneath the immediate text of your exchange with Dan, and motivating it, is simply “us versus them”.

    I see a theme that flows through 1600 comments and invites comparison with George Orwell’s “Animal Farm”: Four legs good, two legs bad. Keep it simple for the sheep. Here it is Consensus good, Contrarian bad.

    But out of fairness to representing you accurately, I will revisit your comment and see if it is more nuanced.

    BBD wrote “Dan, You aren’t talking about the law *again*. Pants on fire, old chap. You are not a ‘good’ person, it seems.”

    Dan is not a good person, an assertion.

    “As is your habit, you are peddling contrarian talking points, all of which are rubbish:”

    Contrarian is Rubbish, an assertion. Rubbish is Bad (social convention, your mileage might vary). Dan is Contrarian, therefore Dan is Bad.

    Dan: “Global warming may very well indeed exist. And, it may be man-caused. Or, it may exist and man’s activity might have little, if any, relationship. Good people can disagree on this.”

    BBD: “All evidence shows that GW exists and is human-caused.”

    It is a conclusion you accept but others do not. With adequate training and possession of actual evidence, perhaps this conclusion is compelled. Without that training, this conclusion is not compelled, but a person could still be “good” — just not by your system of judgment of such things.

    “None suggests a significant natural component”

    For the past 20 years CO2 has risen consistently, substantially and monotonically; but global temperatures have not. Obviously there’s a counter-force, maybe several.

    “So good people *cannot* disagree on this unless you think it is ‘good’ to deny the scientific evidence and argue a counter-factual.”

    Evidence is not denied. Conclusions are denied by some.

    It is not only good to do that, but an essential process of induction.

    “I think that’s evidence of either mental illness or dishonesty, not ‘goodness’.”

    And that brings us to my much briefer comment that you challenged:

    Consensus: Good. Contrarian: Bad (and mentally ill).

    Dan: “My understanding is that most climate scientists agree that climate warming exists. Some, admittedly a minority, believe it is more the result of natural factors.”

    BBD: “But this tiny handful of contrarians has *never* managed to produce an evidence-based scientific argument, so they are (correctly) sidelined by the mainstream, which deals in scientific evidence. Only contrarians take them seriously even though they have no evidence-based scientific case. Contrarians are behaving foolishly, even dishonestly. They are not ‘good’ people.”

    1. Evidence based argument of something that does not exist cannot exist. The only things that can be found must exist. Global warming is asserted to exist, it requires evidence. Not-global-warming is absence and therefore evidence won’t exist for absence. Compare to arguments for and against God. There can be no evidence of not-God, for not-God would create no evidence by which his not-ness could be assured.

    So it is with climate change. It would be extraordinary for climate not to be changing; but what is the evidence of a stable climate? There isn’t any. What will be missing is evidence of a changing climate, but two strong forces could still exist in opposition producing the appearance of stability.

    2. Only contrarians take them seriously: Yes, for that is essentially the definition of a contrarian.

    3. “They are not good people.” I think that is the assumption you possessed before you started these conversations. You have had plenty of help arriving at that judgment; help from Lewandowsky more conspicuously.

    I do not judge myself either good or bad. It serves no purpose to judge myself. I am judged by others in a wide variety of judgments, so much so that, as you suggest, it is “noise”.

    The judgment that matters is that of the shepherd whose flock you wish to remain safely in. It is so for me as well.

  1668. #1669 Chris O'Neill
    February 4, 2016

    Dan: “I have never seen a group of supposed intellectuals so afraid of honest debate…says a lot more about the climate cartel”

    First you complain about lack of honest debate, and then in the very same sentence you say “climate cartel“?!

    What an silly hypocrite you are Dan. You’re almost as bad as the mental cases who wrote a lot of the responses to this article: http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2016/01/19/science-advances-one-funeral-at-a-time/

  1669. #1670 Chris O'Neill
    February 4, 2016

    Dan: When did I ever say that you said Dr. Spencer was right?

    I was merely pointing out how you gullibly repeat the false claims of Spencer simply because you “read an interesting article” and you also claim he simply “reaches a different conclusion then you” when he is not just reaching a different conclusion, he is making up his own facts. Your claim that he is just “reaching a different conclusion” is completely false.

    “I merely pointed out his opinion without commenting on it”

    Apart from saying “he reaches a different conclusion then you”.

    “I am simply reminding you that, no, there are professional scientists on whom Steyn, et. al. base their opinions”

    Where does Spencer claim that Mann’s MBH98/99 work is “fraudulent”?

  1670. #1671 Chris O'Neill
    February 4, 2016

    Dan: “Given “Mike’s Nature Trick””

    No, not given the claims you make about “Mike’s Nature Trick”. In case you missed:

    “The word “trick” does not necessarily mean fraudulent. “Trick” can mean a technique which has nothing to to with hiding in any way whatsoever and indeed MBH98 says in figure 5b:

    ACTUAL DATA (1902-1995)

    along with the RECONSTRUCTED (50 YEAR LOWPASS)

    What was supposedly hidden in MBH98?”

    I don’t expect to get a genuine answer to the last question because Dan is just a global warming and climate science denial troll.

    “There is a legit debate about the “Pause.””

    Of course, this has nothing to do with whether or not there is ongoing long term global warming which is obvious simply from the fact that the “pause” is over. It is now just a part of weather history. Global warming has returned with a vengeance.

  1671. #1672 RickA
    United States
    February 4, 2016

    Chris #1669:

    Yes – but we know the “trick” was used to hide the decline because the email used the word “hide”.

    Here is the actual quote:

    “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

    I am pretty sure this was referring to MBH1999 not 1998 – but going off memory here.

    It is pretty clear the “trick” was to hide the decline – the decline being the proxy data diving down, while the actual temperature data went up.

  1672. #1673 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 4, 2016

    CO: “I don’t expect to get a genuine answer to the last question because Dan is just a global warming and climate science denial troll.”

    Yeah, sadly I think you’re right. For a while I thought he was fishing/goading for a response that would give him an opening to make a legal point about what reasonable people can think. But it’s becoming clear that he is just another epistemologically unrooted troll. Turtles all the way down, indeed.

  1673. #1674 BBD
    February 4, 2016

    M2

    Thank you for clarifying what I have suspected for a long time. Morality is agreement.

    The herd is Good. There is no Bad in the herd.

    Please read the actual comment instead of the version that exists only in your imagination.

    Don’t misrepresent me this egregiously again, please.

  1674. #1675 BBD
    February 4, 2016

    Fans of the divergence ‘problem’ need to explain why subsequent studies have essentially confirmed MBH98 / 99 rather than invalidated it.

    If modern dendro proxy divergence actually *was* a problem, then non-dendro proxy reconstructions would be very different from the HS. They aren’t. This is how we know that the divergence ‘problem’ is modern and has no effect on the calibration of dendro proxies.

    Instead of repeating bullshit claims from long ago, certain people here would do better to try and understand the topic properly.

  1675. #1676 Marco
    February 4, 2016

    “I am pretty sure this was referring to MBH1999 not 1998 ”

    No. Apart from the fact that MBH99 was not published in Nature, it *also* has a clear separate line for the instrumental data.

    Mann *did* use some padding with instrumental data of the *smoothed* curve, which at the time was just one of many methods to handle smoothing
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/comment-page-22/#comment-143623

    Jones did something completely different for the cover art.

  1676. #1677 dean
    February 4, 2016

    “Contrarian is Rubbish, an assertion.”

    No, it is a fact. You, and dan, repeatedly make statements that are contrary to fact – by now you have to know you are repeated lies. You will disagree with some long-winded and foolish explanation based on your warped view of science, but that too will be contrary to fact.
    Saying someone is a contrarian is not an opinion, it is a description of what you are doing.

  1677. #1678 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    dean wrote, in reply to my “Contrarian is Rubbish, an assertion”

    “No, it is a fact. You, and dan, repeatedly make statements that are contrary to fact”

    I reviewed the preceding 100 comments to arrive at a somewhat scientific observation.

    What I see is at least two dimensional and can be represented on a Cartesian grid. I will place Consensus belief at origin (a singularity) and along X, distance from belief and on Y a persons’ style of communicating with others labeled Civility. Negative from Consensus are people that believe the science is *wrong*, and positive from Consensus are people that are unconvinced but don’t argue against the science per se.

    The Consensus participants, the majority here, form a vertical locus over the origin from most civil (+y) to most uncivil (-y).

    This would place BBD easily at the top: Participating and mostly civil, with Marco less participating but also mostly civil.

    At the other extreme I find Chris O’Neill, participating and uncivil. The Uncivil consensus axis is well populated. and for this single sample, also consisting entirely of Consensus subscribers. It is that cluster that I call the “herd”.

    Off the consensus axis, either left (denier) or right (unconvinced), is myself, Dan and maybe RickA. Possibly PatrickW. While we are in the same quadrant it is not tightly clustered. I cannot think of a scientific claim that I do not accept; it is proposed mushroom dream ideas I sometimes doubt, and apart from not entirely convinced that CO2 is dangerous, I am perhaps even more convinced than most here that fuel is running out — dangerous or not!

    Alternative energy is crucial; but it would be better if it were not solely to assuage guilt over CO2 which is nowhere near as universally accepted as the finite nature of coal and oil (IMO, of course).

    === Data ===

    M2: 21 comments, of them 1 is somewhat “ad hominem” .

    Dan: 10 comments, zero I find “ad hominem”.

    O’Neill: 19 comments, 12 of them ad hominem.

    BBD: 12 comments, 4 of them I consider “ad hominem”.

    Less frequently commenting:

    Marco: 6 comments, two I consider ad hominem.

    Bernard J: 5 comments, 4 are ad hominem.

    Obstreperous Applesauce, 5 comments, all five I consider ad hominem.

    Dean, 2 for 1.
    Brainstorms, 2 for 2.
    Steve P: 2 for 1.
    Patrick W: 1 and zero.
    RickA: 3 and zero.
    Desertphile: 4 comments of which 3 I consider ad hominem.

    === Method ===

    Ad hominem is certain in the case of calling someone a name such as liar, fool. It is also certain in the case that a person is clearly identified as a member of a class of person that is then ridiculed or insulted. In either of these cases the intention is to deprecate another person rather than make a scientific argument.

    Where a type or class of person is judged to be inadequate, but no assignment of any particular person is made to that class, I have not counted it as “ad hominem”.

    Where a judgement is more or less objective in nature I also do not count it as “ad hominem”.

  1678. #1679 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    dean “Saying someone is a contrarian is not an opinion, it is a description of what you are doing.”

    It is both. It is your opinion AND it is a description of what you are doing, for you are contrary to me, and that makes you the contrarian, and that is my opinion.

    Have I mentioned how much I love symmetry?

  1679. #1680 BBD
    February 4, 2016

    M2

    For the past 20 years CO2 has risen consistently, substantially and monotonically; but global temperatures have not. Obviously there’s a counter-force, maybe several.

    The suggested mechanisms behind the slowdown in the rate of surface warming include:

    – increase in the rate of ocean heat uptake (England et al 2014)

    – increased aerosol negative forcing (Ridley et al. 2014)

    – predominance of ENSO LN state (Banholzer & Donner 2014)

    – exceptional reduction in solar output during SC24 (SSN index)

    There is evidence that when the AR5 CMIP5 forcings are updated to bring them into line with then modelled global average temperature comes into much closer agreement with observations (Schmidt et al. 2014). This would suggest that model physics and so emergent behaviours like model sensitivity are reasonably accurate.

    Contrarianism isn’t an argument, never mind a debate.

  1680. #1681 RickA
    United States
    February 4, 2016

    Michael 2 #1678:

    I am attempting to get my participating index up.

    I will now attempt to read the mind of the participating uncivil consensus persons.

    They know they are right.

    They keep telling “us” (non-consensus types) the “truth” but we keep refusing to agree with them.

    Conclusion? We are idiots.

    Telling someone they are an idiot (if they are an idiot) is not name calling – it is merely defining them as what they are.

    Therefore, it is ok to name call – because it is really not name calling to call a spade a spade.

    The more interesting question is why we non-consensus types are civil (in your study) and do not resort to the same sort of logic.

    After all – I have been saying the same thing over and over and “they” refuse to agree with me . . .

    I blame my legal training.

    Juries don’t like it when you are mean to your opponent – so it is counter-productive.

    I agree with your method and tally.

    I did not perceive your conclusion.

    Very civil of you.

  1681. #1682 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    RickA wrote “I did not perceive your conclusion.”

    I think I don’t have one beyond a poorly formed idea. This snapshot produces a vertical line where all Consensus persons are assumed to be identical in their belief as to the Consensus and differing only in rudeness.

    But that is likely a grand assumption. The existence of this assumption suggests, as I have long suspected, that my opponents do likewise but on a different dimension. It seems BBD really has absolutely no grasp of the distinction between a little-L libertarian, big-L Libertarian, Republican, TeaPartier (which Tea party?), “conservative” (what is that, exactly)? and so on. To me these things are wildly different from each other.

    So the cluster of rude Consensus people are probably more alike in rudeness with rude WUWT commenters; suggesting that “being rude” *is* the game, the goal, and you pick a side that has the most ammunition to hurl at someone — anyone!

    But as Dan Kahan suggests, there is a strong group identity function and while a narcissist might be free to choose either warmist or denier camps, once he chooses he is committed to his team because otherwise he can be said to be fickle or to have chosen poorly.

    You or I could probably switch sides tomorrow if adequate convincing took place. The (hypothetical) fact that we were “wrong” all those years is something you shrug off, you learn!

    Knowing that you *might* switch sides on a thing you haven’t fully decided also suggests not insulting your own future point of view and its advocates. Keep those options open!

    I watch soccer (futbol) games and I’ve noticed teams shuffle players around quite a bit. Consequently you probably don’t want to personally insult other players because they could be your teammates next year. Some do it anyway and it is poor sportsmanship.

  1682. #1683 SteveP
    February 4, 2016

    Michael2

    ” it is proposed mushroom dream ideas I sometimes doubt, and apart from not entirely convinced that CO2 is dangerous,”

    Proposed mushroom dream ideas. What is that supposed to mean?

    Not entirely convinced that CO2 is dangerous? Presumably you mean in the context of climate change. Why don’t you look at what Exxon Mobil scientists have to say about it. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/
    http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/12/video-reviews-what-exxon-knew-said/

    It is understandable that a person is unlikely to recognize the importance of something like AGW when they have not been trained in the appropriate scientific disciplines. It is also understandable when a person cannot recognize the scientific importance of something because they have been purposely misled, I was dismissive of the importance of CO2 for a period of time because I had been misled by a graphic in an industry publication which falsely attributed global warming to increasing solar output. When I found out I had been misled, I was somewhat incensed, and my smoldering anger has never really died out.

    I am convinced that CO2 is dangerous in the context of climate change because our agricultural, riparian, municipal water, and coastal infrastructures are based on relatively stable weather regimes and a constant sea level. The chance that changing the weather and raising the sea level will have neutral or positive results seems to me to be as likely as a room full of monkeys typing out the Gettysburg Address by chance. There is not enough time in creation for that to happen.

  1683. #1684 RickA
    United States
    February 4, 2016

    SteveP #1680:

    “and a constant sea level.”

    You are kidding right.

    You know that the sea has risen 120 meters over the last 20,000 years.

    That is 6mm per year (on average).

    Maybe by constant you mean constantly rising?

    Things seem pretty good to me, now that the sea has risen 120 meters.

    You must be one of those biased types who only likes the climate you grew up in and is afraid of the climates of the past or the climates of the future.

    But you will find that we cannot keep the climate constant – it never has been nor will it ever be constant.

    It will be changing right up until our sun turns into a red giant and engulfs the Earth.

    Hey – move to Minnesota.

    We are 980 feet above sea level (or 1370 feet above sea level of 20,000 years ago).

  1684. #1685 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    RickA writes “Hey – move to Minnesota. We are 980 feet above sea level.”

    And cold in the winter. Uff da!

    You could add plus/minus 40 feet or so to the elevation depending on where you are. Plus or minus inches anywhere in the Red River Valley.

    The winters put me off a bit, so too the high prices of houses and the state bird (mosquito), but other than that I love Minnesota.

  1685. #1686 RickA
    February 4, 2016

    Michael 2:

    Was that ad hom?

    I was going for funny – but when I re-read it sounded kind of mean.

  1686. #1687 Michael 2
    February 4, 2016

    RickA writes “because it is really not name calling to call a spade a spade.”

    Yes, actually it is depending on the circumstances and most of the time. We are here discussing Steyn vs Mann. That is why I charged myself with one count of ad-hominem for labeling a writer here “childish”. By my definition of what it means, he is; but it does not advance the argument and proves no point. Ad hominem does have a place in argument, a small place when you really don’t care any more whether you advance with that person because after that, you won’t.

    One can discuss Steyn’s traits as relates to the case, or Mann’s traits as related to the case, but labeling you or me does not advance understanding of Steyn vs Mann.

    But it must advance something for it is very common. Consequently I have become interested in exploring what exactly is being advanced and by whom, how and why. The why is fairly easy; it is a narcissistic behavior. If I have hit the limit of my intellectual growth and can climb no higher, my only recourse is to put you down.

    The how is also pretty easy. Ridicule. Saul Alinsky Rule number 5. Actually, most of the Rules for Radicals are found in these arguments.

    What is not made clear in Alinsky is who exactly it works on. It has little or no effect on highly confident persons, nor libertarians (small-L).

    A person with high self confidence and training may seem at first to be a narcissist but the difference is that a confident, well trained individual does not need to put others down. He might occasionally make a rational judgment using good comparative language and he knows also that “the only way to lose is not to play” (reference to Willard, moderator on ATTP).

    It is usually acceptable to identify specific weaknesses. Instead of calling me a liar or an idiot, make it specific: “I believe you are incorrect about your claim of X. In fact, I think you deliberately misrepresented X.” He states his judgment of his observation, an objective fact rather than a moral judgment of me. You can see this in action above when BBD said I misrepresented him in a specific instance and he provided the context of that instance. What can I say? He was correct and I decided to do a bit of research, the result of which you see above.

  1687. #1688 Marco
    February 5, 2016

    “You or I could probably switch sides tomorrow if adequate convincing took place.”

    Based on your argumentation here and elsewhere, M2, I very, very strongly doubt that. Unless with “adequate convincing” you mean “until you say what I want to hear”.

    It is also quite ironic that you make this statement in a comment which also derides BBD, since he actually *has* ‘switched side’.

    But let’s end up on a positive note: you, me, RickA, and BBD very likely have one thing in common: none of us want AGW, and in particular the predicted significant negative impacts with BAU to be true.

  1688. #1689 Marco
    February 5, 2016

    “You know that the sea has risen 120 meters over the last 20,000 years.

    That is 6mm per year (on average).

    Maybe by constant you mean constantly rising?”

    I thought we had been over this before, RickA. The rise essentially stopped 8-frikkin-thousand-years-ago. And it rose because it became warmer due to the Milankovitch cycles. Those are currently in a configuration that should see a slight *decrease* in temperature.

  1689. #1690 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    m2: “I find Chris O’Neill, participating and uncivil”

    If you make shit up e.g. “MM’s hockey stick eliminates the medieval warm period” then, hey, what do you say when someone makes shit up?

  1690. #1691 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    Chris O’Neill wrote “what do you say when someone makes shit up?”

    Opportunity!

    James Cameron has earned hundreds of millions of dollars from his own made up stuff.

    You see it as an opportunity to ridicule others, which informs me of your prime motive. Since it is so common I start with that as an assumption and watch for evidence that maybe you (or others) are not just a schoolyard bully seeking opportunity to call others names.

    Consequently I occasionally misjudge someone.

    One of the problems with your approach is that I have the money, you have the need. Marco and BBD probably consider me an idiot but have the sense not to come out and write it in over 50 percent of their comments.

    But you don’t care. Why is that?

  1691. #1692 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    M2

    me. You can see this in action above when BBD said I misrepresented him in a specific instance and he provided the context of that instance. What can I say? He was correct and I decided to do a bit of research, the result of which you see above.

    Unfortunately, yesterday’s response to you had too many links and remains in the spam filter. I will now repost it in several parts:

    M2

    For the past 20 years CO2 has risen consistently, substantially and monotonically; but global temperatures have not. Obviously there’s a counter-force, maybe several.

    The suggested mechanisms behind the slowdown in the rate of surface warming include:

    – increase in the rate of ocean heat uptake (England et al 2014)

    – increased aerosol negative forcing (Ridley et al. 2014)

  1692. #1693 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    [cont:]

    – predominance of ENSO LN state (Banholzer & Donner 2014)

    – exceptional reduction in solar output during SC24 (SSN index)

  1693. #1694 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    [cont:]

    There is evidence that when the AR5 CMIP5 forcings are updated to bring them into line with then modelled global average temperature comes into much closer agreement with observations (Schmidt et al. 2014). This would suggest that model physics and so emergent behaviours like model sensitivity are reasonably accurate.

    Contrarianism isn’t an argument. It’s a noise.

  1694. #1695 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    m2: “O’Neill: 19 comments, 12 of them ad hominem.”

    ad hom: you are wrong because you are an idiot.

    NOT ad hom: you are wrong because of x, y, z and BTW you are an idiot.

    Climate science denialists are good for one thing: an endless stream of logical fallacies.

  1695. #1696 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    Should be:

    “There is evidence that when the AR5 CMIP5 forcing estimates are updated to bring them into line with real-world forcing history, then modelled global average temperature comes into much closer agreement with observations (Schmidt et al. 2014). “

  1696. #1697 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    RickA: “I am pretty sure this was referring to MBH1999”

    If RickA is pretty sure of something in this subject then we can be virtually certain that he’s wrong. Marco pointed out the factual errors in RickA’s claims.

    Unfortunately, people like RickA would rather make false claims based on their ideological prejudices than do any fact checking.

  1697. #1698 Bernard J.
    February 5, 2016

    Ad hominem is certain in the case of calling someone a name such as liar, fool. It is also certain in the case that a person is clearly identified as a member of a class of person that is then ridiculed or insulted. In either of these cases the intention is to deprecate another person rather than make a scientific argument.

    You miss the essential thrust of the nature of an ad hominem argument. An actual ad hominem dismisses the veracity of someone’s claims on the (logically fallacious) basis of that person being [insert insult applied to said person]. However, I don’t dismiss a denialists arguments on the basis of my pointing out their foolishness, mendacity, ideology or whatever. I dismiss their invalid arguments on the basis of the enormous amount of science that contradicts their nonsense, and subsequently call them foolish, mendacious, ideological or whatever when they demonstrate that they are refractory to revising their positions and accepting the better science when it is presented to them.

    That may well be name-calling, but it’s not ad hominem argument.

    Idiot.

  1698. #1699 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    Bernard J writes”I dismiss their invalid arguments on the basis of the enormous amount of science that contradicts their nonsense, and subsequently call them foolish”

    Whereas I see you calling people “foolish” and that informs me that your argument is not based on reason but on emotional judgment. I think the phrase is “motivated reasoning” or something like that.

    Because your writing is so contaminated with emotion, really I just look at your words for their entertainment value, such as it is.

    Note that BBD has provided meaningful abstracts of points he makes. I might dispute the point, but to do so I must argue against an abstract, not against BBD per se.

    Do it his way and you’ll probably get a lot more respect.

  1699. #1700 RickA
    United States
    February 5, 2016

    Chris #1694:

    Marco did not point out that I made factual errors.

    My facts are 100% correct (that the sea level has risen 120 meters over the last 20,000 years – go look it up).

    Marco chooses to quibble with my time period.

    I chose 20,000 years and my data over that period is 100% correct.

    Marco prefers 8000 years, a period over which the sea level has risen more slowly.

    My larger point remains intact – that the sea level has not remained constant, and that is true over 20000 years or 8000 years or even 116 years.

  1700. #1701 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    RickA: “Marco did not point out that I made factual errors.”

    These are just two of your factual errors:

    “I am pretty sure this was referring to MBH1999 not 1998 ”

    No. Apart from the fact that MBH99 was not published in Nature, it *also* has a clear separate line for the instrumental data.

    You’re not too bright RickA. I even provided a link to Marco’s comment and you’re too lazy to even click on a link. Instead you just assume I’m talking about another comment.

    That’s the problem with you RickA. You assume too much and check too little. A typical denialist.

  1701. #1702 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    RickA

    My larger point remains intact – that the sea level has not remained constant, and that is true over 20000 years or 8000 years or even 116 years.

    Specious as ever. Modern SLR is highly anomalous for the post-HCO period (~5ka – 1750CE). We’ve been through this. You are *pretending* that modern SLR isn’t profoundly unusual. See Lambeck et al. (2014):

    Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52×10^6 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m·ka−1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5–14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm·y−1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100 – 150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15 – 20 cm in time intervals ≥ 200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

    Which just happens to confirm the view that there was no global, synchronous ‘MWP’ as warm as or warmer than the present. Another confirmation that Mann was correct.

  1702. #1703 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    BBD writes some stuff filled with ka BP’s ending with “another confirmation that Mann was correct”.

    I can do that too.

    “\16\vTfu.Dppljf;!tfttjpo>&t\16\vDpoufou.Mfohui;!&me\16\v\16\v&t\1=iunm?=c”

    So there!

    http://www.ioccc.org/2014/birken/prog.c

    But I’m not sure who it proves correct, other than me of course :-)

    ON a more serious note, I believe this page is discussing the hockey stick, not “no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15 – 20 cm in time intervals ≥ 200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.”

    Now if it turns out that Mann asserted this pattern of sea level changes, Lambeck can at most be said to agree which is a bit different than proving Mann correct.

    But I’ll take agreement if that’s as good as it gets.

  1703. #1704 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    Well that’s what I get for reading the notifications most recent first. I see that a discussion of the absolute magnitude and pattern of sea level has started and has nothing to do with Mann. Unless I haven’t found the comment that links all this to Mann.

  1704. #1705 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    M2

    Well that’s what I get for reading the notifications most recent first. I see that a discussion of the absolute magnitude and pattern of sea level has started and has nothing to do with Mann. Unless I haven’t found the comment that links all this to Mann.

    #1699.

    Here’s another quote from Lambeck et al.:

    A progressive decrease in rate of rise from 6.7 ka to recent time. This interval comprises nearly 60% of the database (Fig. 1). The total global rise for the past 6.7 ka was ∼4m (∼1.2×10^6 km^3 of grounded ice), of which ∼3m occurred in the interval 6.7– 4.2 ka BP with a further rise of ≤1m up to the time of onset of recent sea-level rise ∼100 – 150 y ago. In this interval of 4.2 ka to ∼0.15 ka, there is no evidence for oscillations in global-mean sea level of amplitudes exceeding 15 – 20 cm on time scales of ∼200 y (about equal to the accuracy of radiocarbon ages for this period, taking into consideration reservoir uncertainties; also, bins of 200 y contain an average of ∼15 observations/bin). This absence of oscillations in sea level for this period is consistent with the most complete record of microatoll data from Kiritimati. The record for the past 1,000 y is sparse compared with that from 1 to 6.7 ka BP, but there is no evidence in this data set to indicate that regional climate fluctuations, such as the Medieval warm period followed by the Little Ice Age, are associated with significant global sea-level oscillations.

    When the world warms up, the oceans expand and land ice melts, both of which cause global mean SLR to rise.

    If you argue for a global, synchronous ‘MWP’ as warm as or warmer than the present, then you need to increase in mean global sea level to go with it. You can’t have one without the other. Since there is no evidence for such an episode of SLR corresponding to the ‘MWP’ it is strong evidence that this ‘MWP’ event did not happen.

  1705. #1706 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    M2

    Please stop tone trolling. It’s extremely irritating. Your behaviour is the problem here – denial, incomprehension, argument from ignorance, refusal to accept correction, denial…

    You are the problem, not the justifiable exasperation of other commenters, so you *don’t* get to whine aggrievedly about it for tactical advantage.

  1706. #1707 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    BBD “You are the problem”

    And here I thought global warming was the problem 😉

    “not the justifiable exasperation of other commenters, so you *don’t* get to whine aggrievedly about it for tactical advantage.”

    Sure I do. It is more elegant than the simple minded insults more frequently seen here.

    Idiot doesn’t mean idiot. It means “I don’t like you”. If anyone here is really arguing with idiots, well, think on that for a moment…

    Being insulted by the best and the brightest is quite an honor. But first, identify the best and the brightest. On this page, that appears to be you. You’ve been a bit stingy with the castigation but your last was pretty good, it shows that you are paying closer attention. If there’s a wolf in this flock, it is you. You are smarter, motivated, observant, dangerous.

  1707. #1708 SteveP
    February 5, 2016

    RickA #1682
    “and a constant sea level.”

    What you have done is to take a phrase out of context, and then try to use it to play what amounts to non-science word games. This is the same sort of trick that was played on Michael Mann and other researchers by the possibly fossil fuel funded illegal hack of their personal emails. The attack on Mann was contemptible. Your attack on me is simply churlish.

    Let’s go back to the entire sentence from which you pulled that short phrase, the one with which you attacked my writing.

    “I am convinced that CO2 is dangerous in the context of climate change because our agricultural, riparian, municipal water, and coastal infrastructures are based on relatively stable weather regimes and a constant sea level.”

    It goes without saying that agriculture,cities on rivers, and drinking water supplies depend on a relatively stable weather regime. Surely you can grasp that concept. In the case of coastal infrastructure, I will explain what I meant in regards to sea level rise. Coastal infrastructure like roads, houses, and subways can be flooded and damaged when the combination of nearly a foot of sea level rise and a large storm hit an urban area, as happened in NYC and the surrounding area. My point was that when the engineering texts studied by the engineers who went on to design most of this infrastructure were written, sea level rise was never even considered! Sea level was considered to be RELATIVELY constant within the extremes of tides and storms! Anyway, by butchering my sentence, you were able to leave out the word “relatively” and then go on to launch a really deceptive attack.

  1708. #1709 Michael 2
    February 5, 2016

    SteveP writes “It goes without saying that agriculture,cities on rivers, and drinking water supplies depend on a relatively stable weather regime.”

    It helps to say it once in a while, for you are correct. All modern societies depend on predictability of pretty much everything. Not perhaps stability so much as predictability (which stability provides).

  1709. #1710 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    SteveP

    Anyway, by butchering my sentence, you were able to leave out the word “relatively” and then go on to launch a really deceptive attack.

    But look on the bright side – RickA’s cheap rhetorical tricks remind us that millennial SLR reconstructions are yet more evidence that there was no global and synchronous hot ‘MWP’. More evidence that Mann’s work could not possibly have been ‘fraudulent’ or ‘misleading’. More evidence that those who make these claims are peddling counterfactuals. More evidence that they are acting in bad faith by ignoring endless corrections and pointers to the science.

  1710. #1711 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 5, 2016

    RickA: Get ready for the personal insults for having the temerity to disagree with some of the posters here, and for displaying an ounce of healthy skepticism. Can’t have that, can we?

    Nope, you are just lazy, don’t check facts, assume too much, and are a typical “denialist,” whatever that is.

    Personally, I find it sad that certain posters cannot refrain from such childish attacks. And, honestly, I think your posts have been the most respectful and levelheaded on this thread (which, of course, makes the personal attacks against you all the more disappointing.

  1711. #1712 dean
    United States
    February 5, 2016

    “Have I mentioned how much I love symmetry?”

    Given your distinct lack of understanding of science and your willingness to lie about what you and others have said, there is no reason to believe you know anything more about symmetry than its spelling.

  1712. #1713 Dan
    February 5, 2016

    RickA: #1680 was probably the best post of this (very) long thread.

  1713. #1714 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    Dan

    #1666.

  1714. #1715 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    And cut the tone trolling. Your behaviour on this thread fully merits the irritation of others here.

  1715. #1716 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    M2

    I’m waiting for you to acknowledge that millennial sea level reconstructions are indeed evidence that there was no global, synchronous ‘MWP’ as warm as or warmer than the present. This being so, one cannot argue that Mann’s millennial NH surface temperature reconstructions ‘fraudulently’ or misleadingly diminished the ‘MWP’.

  1716. #1717 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    BBD writes “I’m waiting for you to acknowledge that millennial sea level reconstructions are indeed evidence that there was no global, synchronous ‘MWP’ as warm as or warmer than the present.”

    So it seems.

  1717. #1718 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    Sure I do. It is more elegant than the simple minded insults more frequently seen here.

    It’s tone trolling which is irritating and underhand since you have provoked the anger in others by your own behaviour. And you won’t even admit it now. Disappointing.

  1718. #1719 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    BBD writes: “It’s tone trolling which is irritating and underhand since you have provoked the anger in others by your own behaviour. And you won’t even admit it now.”

    Ah, so that is what the word means! I seldom do that sort of thing deliberately. I am sometimes accused of being passive-aggressive. I almost understand what that means. I am certainly not active aggressive.

    Most humans are hierarchical and social (you probably cannot have one without the other). Rather a lot of human communication exists to establish hierarchy and has absolutely nothing to do with global warming.

    A few people, certainly me, are not part of that hierarchy; have no interest in it and would prefer not to be involved. Unfortunately that’s not much of an option. Most of the time I am satisfied being the “omega” as it requires essentially no effort.

    What happens is that people sense I am not by nature an omega, I have chosen it, and could easily choose something else. That unsettles the hierarchy, disrupts it from nearly the top to the bottom. Well, that is a choice to be disrupted.

    I quoted George Orwell and as it is singularly relevant will do so again:

    (George Orwell, 1984) “How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?”

    Winston thought. “By making him suffer,” he said.

    “Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own? “

    He is describing narcissism. The thing that goads a narcissist is to be agreeable as he hunts for something I will resist or that will offend me. Bernard and Chris are still trying.

    The point, if one exists, is that I show my strength through my weakness. The narcissist will eventually abandon the effort having decided in his mind where I am in the hierarchy OR he will break down and cease with the game and for a brief moment engage in a sincere, heart to heart conversation: What do you believe and why do you believe it. And I mean why. Science merely supports (or not) a belief you already have.

    I appreciate the many references you have provided. I have saved all of your comments and as time permits will study them. I ought to spend less time here but as you try to persuade others, you provide a valuable list of useful and relevant references out of the thousands that exist but which might not be as useful, for you have not chosen them.

  1719. #1720 Brainstorms
    February 5, 2016

    His ideology and his worship of it, is the problem here, his problem, and the world’s problem.

  1720. #1721 RickA
    United States
    February 5, 2016

    BBD #1704:

    The ocean did rise during the MWP:

    https://www.broward.org/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Documents/grinstedclimdyn09sealevel200to2100ad.pdf

    So I think the evidence actually supports the MWP – rather than showing it not to exist.

    It was as warm as present before, and it wasn’t caused by human emitted CO2.

    There is nothing unusual for the sea level to rise when it is warming or drop when it is cooling.

    As the paper I cites states “Robust findings are that reconstructed sea level shows a LIA minimum at ~1730 and a local MWP maximum at 1100-1200 (Fig. 7).”

    Everybody agrees it is getting warmer – the question is how much of the warming is caused by humans and how much by nature?

    But I think you do agree that sea level is not constant – correct?

  1721. #1722 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    RickA

    Grinstead et al. is a modelled study. Lambeck et al. uses geophysical data and post-dates Grinstead, which now looks both questionable and obsolete as a result.

    So your certainty is entirely unwarranted:

    The ocean did rise during the MWP

    * * *

    It was as warm as present before, and it wasn’t caused by human emitted CO2.

    When? So what? Whoever said ACO2 was responsible? We’ve been through this and you don’t have a argument of any kind so why gabble on?

    Everybody agrees it is getting warmer – the question is how much of the warming is caused by humans and how much by nature?

    Debunked contrarian talking points aren’t an argument, no matter how often they are repeated. They are just noise.

    But I think you do agree that sea level is not constant – correct?

    Strawman. The real point here is that modern SLR is exceptional in the concept of post-HCO / preindustrial period. How about you agree to that instead of repeating your misdirections?

  1722. #1723 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    Bloody spell checkers:

    “Strawman. The real point here is that modern SLR is exceptional in the context of [the] post-HCO / preindustrial period. How about you agree to that instead of repeating your misdirections?

  1723. #1724 wheelism
    February 5, 2016

    RickA on Debunked Contrarian Talking Points:

    “Never gonna give you up!”

  1724. #1725 RickA
    United States
    February 5, 2016

    BBD #1719:

    I don’t see modern SLR as exceptional.

    It would be exceptional if it was warming and sea level didn’t rise.

    The question is why is it warming?

    Perhaps that is what is exceptional? Or perhaps not.

  1725. #1726 BBD
    February 5, 2016

    RickA

    I don’t see modern SLR as exceptional.

    Then you don’t understand the topic.

    The question is why is it warming?

    GHG forcing. This is why you get called deniers.

  1726. #1727 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    RickA: “It was as warm as present before”

    How on earth do you know that?

    You’re just making a bare-face assertion without adequate justification.

    Your citation says: “a LOCAL MWP maximum at 1100-1200 (Fig. 7)”

    The word LOCAL doesn’t mean it is the highest of all the times in figure 7. You can see that figure 7 shows the highest sea level will be happening very soon with the very high rate of sea level rise we are now experiencing.

    “rather than showing it (MWP) not to exist”

    This is a standard denialist strawman – that someone is trying to argue that the MWP did not exist at all. How dishonest of you RickA.

  1727. #1728 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    Dan: “And, honestly, I think your posts have been the most respectful and levelheaded on this thread”

    And while you’re on the subject of honesty, don’t forget dishonest.

  1728. #1729 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    “You are the problem”

    m2: “And here I thought global warming was the problem”

    You are the problem here.

    Clearly you haven’t the cognitive skill to fill in the implied word.

  1729. #1730 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    Chris O’Neill “Clearly you haven’t the cognitive skill to fill in the implied word.”

    Indeed. Your purpose is to explain things clearly and simply, to use express language rather than implied language.

  1730. #1731 Chris O'Neill
    February 5, 2016

    m2: “James Cameron has earned hundreds of millions of dollars from his own made up stuff.”

    The problem is, you don’t make it clear when you are claiming fact and when you are writing fiction.

    “I have the money, you have the need.”

    Indeed. You have the shit you make up. I have the need to point it out.

    BTW, don’t be such a cry-baby.

  1731. #1732 Bernard J.
    February 6, 2016

    Because your writing is so contaminated with emotion, really I just look at your words for their entertainment value, such as it is.

    I suspect that you wouldn’t have a clue what in my writing is “emotion” and what is included for other reasons. You see, as I indicated in my previous post, I test the claims of deniers by comparison with the best science. If the claimants are patently wet behind the ears I am usually courteous and will correct their errors without much by way of snark.

    If they are, like you demonstrate yourself to be, recalcitrant to repeated direction to the best science, then it’s gloves off and they get a deserved spray. I have no time for wilful ignorance. And such is your ignorance: you’ve been repeatedly pointed by many people here to science that absolutely refuted your pseudoscientific denialist claptrap, and yet you persist with adherence to discreted faff and even brag about ignoring peoeple’s correction to your crap because you perceive “emotion”.

  1732. #1733 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    Bernard J writes “it’s gloves off and they get a deserved spray.”

    Spray your screen as much as you like. I am not here.

    “I have no time for wilful ignorance.”

    It seems you do! Alas, so do I.

  1733. #1734 RickA
    United States
    February 6, 2016

    Chris #1725 asks “How on earth do you know that?”

    Sea level data.

  1734. #1735 RickA
    February 6, 2016

    Michael 2 #1685:

    Yes – winters are cold in Minnesota and summers can be hot.

    We have a very wide temperature swing, daily and seasonally.

    I just heard on the radio (MPR) a discussion of a temperature swing of 108 degree (F) swing in a mere six days at Embarrass Minnesota from -60 to 48 F. Wow – that is weather.

    I wonder if the location of a person influences their attitude towards global warming?

    When you live somewhere with daily changes of temperature which are high, and seasonal changes which are high (over 100 F) – maybe a .8C change in average global temperature over 120 years doesn’t seem like such a big deal.

    Versus living on the equator – where the sun rises and sets at almost the same time each day, year round, and the temperature swings are more muted.

    Just a thought.

    Greg Laden lives in Minnesota – maybe he can chime in on this thought?

    My location might even influence my concern about sea level rise (not worried).

    It is ironic that Boulder Colorado has a data set on sea level rise – and are thousands of feet above sea level.

    The mosquitoes do suck (ha ha) – but really only in June and July.

  1735. #1736 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    RickA

    RickA: “It was as warm as present before”

    How on earth do you know that?

    You respond:

    Sea level data.

    This is a false claim. The Grinsted et al. study you reference is a modelled sea level reconstruction. No actual sea level data for the MCA period are presented *at all*. It is also at odds with subsequent work – it is an outlier. So your assertion fails on two counts.

    But since you are yet again being stridently wrong, let’s continue to examine your claim about sea level data.

    First, credit where it is due: Grinsted et al. was a groundbreaking study – the first to produce a 2ka sea level reconstruction – but subsequent work has substantially modified the understanding of millennial sea level change. For example here’s another recent study that, like Lambeck14, is also firmly grounded on physical data: Kemp et al. (2011) Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia (emphasis added):

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

    Avid students of physical climatology that we all are, we will instantly spot the fatal problem for the ‘hot MWP’ hypothesis: there was nothing like enough SLR from ~950 – 1350CE. Since the laws of physics have not changed recently, if the ‘MWP’ was as warm as or warmer than the present, there must have been the same magnitude of SLR as the present. And there just wasn’t. In fact modern annual SLR is over three times greater than that of a millennium ago.

    Mediaeval warming was regional, asynchronous and episodic not global, synchronous and sustained like modern warming. As a consequence, at no point did mediaeval global average temperatures match or exceed modern GAT, something easy to confirm by looking at the substantial difference in the rate of SLR. If global average temperature during the MCA matched modern GAT, then basic physics requires that there was equivalent thermal expansion of the ocean and equivalent mass transfer from the cryosphere to the ocean. There’s wasn’t, so that’s it for the ‘hot MWP’.

    Once again, it seems that Mann was indeed correct and did not fraudulently minimise the ‘MWP’ in order to mislead policy makers and the public. Once again, we see that these claims are demonstrably false.

  1736. #1737 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    And RickA, you should *read* Grinsted et al. Although probably incorrect in its estimate of MSL for the MCA period, Grinsted explicitly states that temperatures during the MCA were cooler than the present:

    Hence, the cooler than present temperatures in the MWP is consistent with higher than present sea level. Table 2 (T0) shows that the sea level at 2090-2099 will be higher than MWP even with no rise in temperatures above the present.

    Your source directly contradicts the claim you are using it to make.

  1737. #1738 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    Chris O’Neill writes “I have the need to point it out.”

    I appreciate your candor.

  1738. #1739 Kevin O'Neill
    Franklin, WI USA
    February 6, 2016

    Rick A – I grew up in Superior Wisconsin, across the bay from Duluth, MN on the western tip of Lake Superior.

    Climate change at those latitudes is easy to detect over the course of a few decades; most noticeable in the ice-on/ice-off dates for inland lakes (BTW, though MN is the ‘Land of 10,000 Lakes’ – WI actually has more lakes).

    One of the main reasons I got interested in climate change had to do with the ‘old grandpa syndrome’ – i.e., winters were colder, snows were deeper, walked to school uphill both ways, etc, etc. My memory told me it was getting warmer, but was that true or was I just getting old and memory was playing tricks on me? So I looked it up. What I found was material like this:

    Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern Hemisphere, Magnuson et al, 2000.

    Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier; these translate to increasing air temperatures of about 1.2°C per 100 years. Interannual variability in both freeze and breakup dates has increased since 1950. A few longer time series reveal reduced ice cover (a warming trend) beginning as early as the 16th century, with increasing rates of change after about 1850.”

    It is phenological records like these that first confirmed my suspicions about climate change. You don’t need a single thermometer to know it’s happening.

    BTW, you may want to read Matt Strassler’s post on extreme variations in temperatures and what they really boil down to energy-wise:

    Yesterday, in southern Florida the high temperature was 301 K, and the low temperature was 233 K in northern Minnesota. The ratio of the two temperatures is simply 301/233 = 1.29. We may say that Florida was as much as 29% hotter than Minnesota, meaning, specifically, that the average air molecule in Miami in the afternoon had 29% more energy than the average air molecule in Duluth at dawn.

    Is that a lot, or not? Motion-energy increases as speed squared (Emotion = ½mv², for an object of mass m traveling at a speed v that is much slower than the speed of light) so it only takes 14% more speed to give you 29% more motion-energy. That means a car driving 68 miles per hour (114 km/hour) has 29% more motion-energy than a car driving 60 miles per hour (100 km/hour). So think about that when you are commuting to work. When you accelerate from 60 to 68 miles per hour, you’ve increased your speed by enough to turn this morning’s Duluth into this afternoon’s Miami.”

  1739. #1740 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    M2

    So it seems.

    The physical climatology has been explained and the references detailing the scientific evidence have been produced. You have no scientific counter-argument. So, please acknowledge the fact that millennial sea level reconstructions don’t support a hot ‘MWP’.

    Passive-aggressive denial (‘so it seems’) isn’t acceptable. A little integrity is required at this point.

  1740. #1741 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    BBD writes “Passive-aggressive denial (‘so it seems’) isn’t acceptable. A little integrity is required at this point.”

    What you get is a lot of integrity. All I have here is words. Your words are very good; but still words. I am neither your friend nor your enemy. I do not seek your approval neither do I seek to be approved by you.

    But I accept from several sources that the MWP is not global and synchronous. Even so, I do not forward that as if I am an authority on the subject.

    Hence, “so it seems”.

    That is integrity.

    Closely related is Chris O’Neill finally offering something with some meat on its bones — ice formation and breakup dates on the Great Lakes. That is a thing carefully recorded by shipping companies and not contaminated by politics. It’s good data. It is meaningful. I accept the claim on a “so it seems” basis and add it to all the others I similarly accept provisionally.

    Relax. Only two things on all of the Earth I accept 100 percent. One is my own existence (thanks to Descartes for figuring out a way to prove that much) and “God”. Everything else has at least a minuscule fraction of uncertainty.

    INTP’s make great judges if they ever get around to deciding because the issue will have been most carefully examined and where it goes is where it led.

  1741. #1742 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    What do you believe and why do you believe it. And I mean why. Science merely supports (or not) a belief you already have.

    No. Absolutely back to front. Science determines what I believe about CC. Science *changed* my views fundamentally. You seem to forget this but it is crucial. I am walking the walk as well as talking the talk.

  1742. #1743 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    For BBD: I wrote poorly. “I do not seek your approval neither do I seek to be approved by you.”

    Is redundant. I should have written that I am not writing so as to be acceptable to you or by you although I am trying to be complete, correct and sincere. You wrote that “so it seems” is not acceptable which is to me a bit strange since I am not trying to be acceptable, but neither am I trying to be non-acceptable. That’s orthogonal to communication.

  1743. #1744 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    I’m off to play in the snow and won’t be here for a while. I think I am going to try to disengage.

  1744. #1745 Michael 2
    February 6, 2016

    Snow can wait two minutes…
    BBE writes “Science determines what I believe about CC. Science *changed* my views fundamentally.”

    It may well do so for me. But what is your interest in climate change in the first place? Why and/or when did it get your attention? What is the impact on you?

    For me, I am nearing retirement age — shall I move north or shall I move south? Seek wetter climate or drier? It is changing; it has been changing my entire life. Who is the prophet of change? Who can forecast this correctly?

  1745. #1746 Greg Laden
    February 6, 2016

    Michael 2: Good question. That question is actually addressed in a fairly rigorous way in this book:

    http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/11/17/climate-change-what-everyone-needs-to-know-by-joseph-romm/

    Asking who can forecast correctly is wrong at two levels. First, the question itself implies an untruth. Second, we don’t forecast, we project. Not the same thing.

    In any event, you can be sure that low lying retirement property in places like Florida or on islands is a very bad long term investment. So then, you need to ask yourself, do you have heirs and do you care that they inherit anything of yours, and how healthy are you??? In terms of heat, expect more heat pretty much everywhere and you will be very unlikely to go wrong. So a place that is nice because it is warm but is sometimes too warm may, even in the short term, be a very bad idea.

    A place that is warmer than where one lives (if one lives in the cold) but not too warm, and not low lying, may end up being a pretty good deal, because most people won’t actually start making smart decisions until it is too late.

  1746. #1747 Desertphile
    February 6, 2016

    A place that is warmer than where one lives (if one lives in the cold) but not too warm, and not low lying, may end up being a pretty good deal, because most people won’t actually start making smart decisions until it is too late.

    That includes people who engage in agriculture for some high-cash crops. I boggle at the number of people living now who don’t seem to worry what their children and grandchildren will eat and drink while food production continues to move to higher altitudes and latitudes and sources of fresh water continue to vanish.

  1747. #1748 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    M2

    But what is your interest in climate change in the first place? Why and/or when did it get your attention? What is the impact on you?

    I’m a human being. I have an eight year old child.

    * * *

    Still no clear, unambiguous acceptance of the scientific evidence so still no unambiguous demonstration of integrity.

  1748. #1749 Michael 2
    February 7, 2016

    BBD “I’m a human being. I have an eight year old child.”

    Thank you. I did not see that one coming. I feel your reply and that is by itself exceptional.

  1749. #1750 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    That is a thing carefully recorded by shipping companies and not contaminated by politics. It’s good data.

    Millennial sea level reconstructions aren’t ‘contaminated by politics’ either. Nor is any other aspect of climate science. That conspiracist meme emanates exclusively from the political right, which finds itself lacking any scientific counter-argument to the standard position on CC and so obliged to lie, incessantly.

  1750. #1751 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 6, 2016

    For M2 there is uncertainty in everything except himself and God therefore: 
    2+2 =4 is uncertain,
    cause and effect are uncertain,
    sophistry can be as good as logic,
    there is uncertainty in uncertainty and therefore it cannot be measured.

    On CC, M2 is *only* concerned with his retirement,
    IOW, “As long as I get mine, screw everybody else.”

    On science, God!, therefore he is one of the chosen.

    Conclusion: M2 has nothing to offer on the subject except trolling.

  1751. #1752 Desertphile
    February 6, 2016

    “What do you believe and why do you believe it. And I mean why. Science merely supports (or not) a belief you already have.

    And yet you people continue to feed this obvious troll. Why?

  1752. #1753 Brainstorms
    February 6, 2016

    M2 is either a Poe, or he’s a Solipsist. He thinks that objective reality is only what exists inside his own head and follows his beloved, hallowed Ideology.

    To him, there is no objective reality outside himself. Hence, Science is not “real”, and what Science helps us reveal about the world is not “real” either — especially if Revealed Truth conflicts with the cherished Ideology.

    Hence, to M2, everything hinges only on “belief”. Nothing else is real, and reality is what you personally choose to believe it to be.

    It’s a form of mental illness… Or he’s having fun being a Poe.

  1753. #1754 Desertphile
    February 6, 2016

    Brainstorms: M2 is either a Poe, or he’s a Solipsist. He thinks that objective reality is only what exists inside his own head and follows his beloved, hallowed Ideology.

    To him, there is no objective reality outside himself. Hence, Science is not “real”, and what Science helps us reveal about the world is not “real” either — especially if Revealed Truth conflicts with the cherished Ideology.

    It seems to me that it’s a Poe, not an actual moron; but it is not possible to tell. I have not been reading the comments posted by the conspiracy alarmist nuts here, so I have not seen them correct “Michael 2” here. If I believed human-caused climate change was and is a massive world-wide multi- generation hoax, and I saw “Michael 2” posting the insane shit it does, I would not hesitate to correct it— “solidarity” be damned.

    Poe or Lunatic, either way, I am amazed people are replying to it.

  1754. #1755 BBD
    February 6, 2016

    To be fair, I don’t think M2 is a troll or a Poe.

  1755. #1756 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 6, 2016

    Well, M2 is no stranger here. See for instance, his antics at:
    http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/07/08/conspiracies-all-the-way-down-is-your-local-climate-contrarian-a-kook-or-a-crook/
    And notice how the thread ends.

    He sometimes seems poe-like in that he picks up elements in conversation and feeds them back in ways that almost seem like parody. Things he says are often absurd, but it is true he’s not as ridiculous as some I’ve seen.

    I do think he’s a troll, though. This can be hard to pin down, but first off he has demonstrated that he is not interested in either learning or contributing in any meaningful way. He does seek attention however and works hard to make sure that he doesn’t drop off people’s radar. More subtly he has that smug, goading tone mixed with sophistical sewage designed to irritate and manipulate that is so typical of your classic troll.

    Again note how the thread linked above ends.

  1756. #1757 Brainstorms
    February 6, 2016

    I stopped reading it. It’s all drivel. I do still read the replies to it, though (for now) — to learn a few debating pointers, and pick up some facts.

    BBD is very good at it — so is Bernard J. (And Chris O’Neill, Dean, & OA put in good comments here & there.)

    Dan & RickA actually suck at debating this. They’re getting the floor wiped with their asses.

    Trying to argue with M2 is like trying to argue with a 4-year-old. Which is like trying to teach a pig to sing…

  1757. #1758 Chris O'Neill
    February 6, 2016

    m2: “Chris O’Neill finally offering something — ice formation and breakup dates on the Great Lakes”

    Making shit up as usual.

  1758. #1759 Bernard J.
    February 6, 2016

    I am not here.

    Congratulations on one of the most magnificent self-refuting statements the interweb has ever seen.

    As Desertphile observes, the choice appears to be poe or lunatic.

  1759. #1760 Desertphile
    February 7, 2016

    Bernard J.: As Desertphile observes, the choice appears to be poe or lunatic.

    Much like the Republican Party president candidates.

  1760. #1761 Kevin O'Neill
    Franklin, WI USA
    February 7, 2016

    Chris O’Neil quotes Michael 2:m2: “Chris O’Neill finally offering something — ice formation and breakup dates on the Great Lakes”

    And Replies: “Making shit up as usual.”

    It’s worse than you state. He believes the data comes from shipping companies – obviously he’s never read the paper. He saw ‘Lake Superior’ in the post I wrote and assumed the paper concerned the Great Lakes.

    And of course there are dozens of other phenological records that make the same point; whether it be dates of bird migrations, flowers blooming, first freeze, etc., etc.

    So the fact Michael 2 couldn’t be bothered to see who actually wrote the post didn’t stop him in the least from mangling his response :)

  1761. #1762 wheelism
    February 7, 2016

    Poe or lunatic? Hardly. M2 doesn’t doubt what is occurring, but stirring-up “activists” is really all a middle-aged conservative with a triple-digit IQ has left.

    There but for the grace of a conscience go I.

  1762. #1763 wheelism
    February 7, 2016

    (With apologies to Stoat, BB and a handful of others who buck the trend.)

  1763. #1764 Dan
    February 8, 2016

    Brainstorms: 1765, what you mean is you agree with BBD, Chris Oneill, et. al, and disagree with me and Rick. Which is fine, but it doesn’t relate to “sucking at debating.” I am still waiting for someone to post any legal authority, whether it be a blog post, law review article, treatise, etc., stating Mann’s case against Steyn has a good, or even fair, chance of success.

    You won’t find it, of course, and I have linked to articles stating exactly why Mann’s case is difficult and, as the fact stand now, he will fail.

    If you disagree with that assessment, back it up (which BBD, Chris, Bernard J, all failed to do)

  1764. #1765 Dan
    February 8, 2016

    I would also note that Tim Ball has a recent article questioning claims that 2015 was the hottest year ever. I just glanced at the article (because I really don’t care; I am more concerned with the free speech issues involved in big climate) that the world is billions of years old, and we don’t have accurate temperature information for the vast majority of those.

    Whether you agree, or disagree, it is a fair point and doesn’t make Tim Ball a “denier,” or “bought and paid.”

    It is funny that people here think they are “good debaters” (whatever that means in an internet blog) but, in reality, all they do is jump up and down demanding answers to the same question over, over (despite being given the answer); change the question when an answer they dislike is given (i.e., references to Mann’s dishonesty isn’t enough; the reference must say “FRAUD”, amongst other tactics).

    It really is quite amusing how so many people here cannot accept the fact that, like most things, the issue of AGW is not black and white. There is a lot of gray in there, and good people can have honest disagreements.

    I think the fact that Rick and I are attorneys, and deal with disputes, debate, etc., know questioning the motives of your adversary usually doesn’t get you very far because it reeks of desperation. People who truly have the facts on their side are content to rely on said facts

  1765. #1766 Chris O'Neill
    February 8, 2016

    Dan: “I would also note that Tim Ball has a recent article questioning claims that 2015 was the hottest year ever.”

    Of course he has another strawman. And even if he was disputing that it was the hottest year on record we would expect that too because he’s in the global warming denial business.

    You’re in the business of making strawman arguments too Dan, but we already knew that.

    “People who truly have the facts on their side are content to rely on said facts”

    unlike people like Steyn and Dan.

  1766. #1767 Chris O'Neill
    February 8, 2016

    Dan: “I am still waiting for someone to post any legal authority”

    You’re not very good at paying attention, are you?

    “Chris, all failed to do”

    Making shit up as usual.

  1767. #1768 Kevin O'Neill
    February 8, 2016

    Dan – Tim Ball? Seriously. Why not just cite my 6 year-old niece, at least she’s never been proven to be wrong time and time again.

    The man can’t read charts or graphs, gets basic facts wrong, and all of his errors always support his conclusions… odd that ain’t it? One might almost think it’s intentional. Of course pseudoskeptics just lap it up.

  1768. #1769 Bernard J.
    February 9, 2016

    It is funny that people here think they are “good debaters” (whatever that means in an internet blog) but, in reality, all they do is jump up and down demanding answers to the same question over, over (despite being given the answer); change the question when an answer they dislike is given (i.e., references to Mann’s dishonesty isn’t [sic] enough; the reference [sic] must say “FRAUD”, amongst other tactics).

    Erm, that would be “…Mann’s alleged dishonesty…”, as there is no evidence that proves any dishonesty on his part and there are many reports that support his honesty.

    Is this how you work as a lawyer? Says something about the judicial system and the malleability of judges and juries, if so…

    And yes, it is “funny”. Especially when you say it without the slightest trace or irony.

    Your mirth didn’t stop there though…

    It really is quite amusing how so many people here cannot accept the fact that, like most things, the issue of AGW is not black and white. There is a lot of gray in there, and good people can have honest disagreements.

    On what basis do you gauge that there is “a lot of gray in there”? Frankly, for the circumstance to occur where “good people can have honest disagreements”, the good people would have to be ignorant of the science, and in such a circumstance it’s highly doubtful that any fair-minded person could call disagreement with the science “honest”.

    That you persist in seeing “a lot of gray” is an indication of your refractoriness to understanding the science. This says a lot more about you than it does about any “gray” in the science.

    By the way, there’s not nearly as much doubt about the gravity of the situation when if comes to global warming. And the facts are not good for the long term:

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/02/a-strong-alarming-warning-from.html

    Seriously Dan, stop listening to climate change deniers if you want to know the truth, and talk to some scientists. If, on the other hand, you want to persist with this charade of “grayness” and doubt and “honest disagreements”, by all means stay in your cloistered denialist corner. Don’t expect any sympathy though from rational people, nor any measure of credibility amongst the same.

  1769. #1770 BBD
    February 9, 2016

    Dan

    You have *never* answered the key question:

    If Mann’s work was fraudulent or misleading or dishonest or deceptive, then why hasn’t it been overturned by subsequent studies?

    We all know you won’t answer this simple question because Mann’s work hasn’t been overturned by subsequent studies. Quite the opposite, in fact. So, this question (and your absolute refusal to answer it and your lies about having done so) demonstrates that claims that Mann’s work is fraudulent, deceptive, dishonest or misleading are false. And you knew that instantly, the first time you read the question, didn’t you?

    Saying that you have answered the question is one childish lie. Saying that the answer actually hinges on the term ‘fraudulent’ is another. We can say deceptive, dishonest or misleading if you want. Take your pick. But you did take your pick, didn’t you? It was, after all, *you* who made repeated use of ‘fraudulent’ upthread. And yet now, somehow, when challenged about it, it’s all down to me…

    Pitiful.

    The truth is that I have shown you up for a liar who peddles denier memes incessantly whilst dishonestly claiming ‘only’ to be talking about the law. Incredibly, although I’ve told you repeatedly that I’m not arguing US libel law with you, once again you are challenging me on the law, as if that was what this conversation is about.

    It beggars belief, Dan. You are either too fantastically stupid to be a lawyer or you are dishonest to the core.

  1770. #1771 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 9, 2016

    Dan @ #1765
    Oh God! Here we go. 

    Like a good debater:

    …I just glanced at the article (because I really don’t care…

    and are not willing to give it a moments critical thought.

    …Whether you agree, or disagree, it is a fair point and doesn’t make Tim Ball a “denier,” or “bought and paid”…

    Actually it’s not a fair point. It’s a thought stopping bromide like, “It never rains but it pours.”

    …[misc. verbiage]…

    Welcome to the Thunderdome, where hot house debaters come to wilt.

    …the issue of AGW is not black and white. There is a lot of gray in there, and good people can have honest disagreements…

    Actually, if you took the time to learn a little about an issue which, insofar as it is correct, would be the biggest threat facing humanity and the biosphere in the long term, you would know that scientists have concerned themselves greatly with uncertainty and what is and what is not known.

    And don’t talk about black and white here (or gamble in Vegas) if you don’t have even a minimal understanding of statistics.

    …questioning the motives of your adversary usually doesn’t get you very far because it reeks of desperation…

     
    As noted, this is a wide ranging discussion here on a number of levels. Getting meta about why people can’t or won’t deal with the issue reasonably is within bounds. It is a problem of communication. It is not an argument “proving” or disproving AGW. Get it?
    People who truly have the facts on their side are content to rely on said facts
    Wow! I always wonder about people who are completely irony impaired. 

    Dan, among other things, you aren’t reading the room, or tracking the conversation, or picking up on where people are coming from. Also, again, not everything being discussed here falls within your narrow definition of what is relevant. This is partly your doing. You are completely out of your element here and are too indifferent, dismissive, and uninformed to give it any effort.

  1771. #1772 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 9, 2016

    This thread is so long my iPad is having trouble handling it. 

    Also that last comment of mine at 1771 should have ended with blockquotes:

    …AGW. Get it?
    People who truly have the facts on their side are content to rely on said facts
    Wow! I always wonder about people who are completely irony impaired. 

    Dan, among other things, you aren’t reading the room, or tracking the conversation, or picking up on where people are coming from. Also, again, not everything being discussed here falls within your narrow definition of what is relevant. This is partly your doing. You are completely out of your element here and are too indifferent, dismissive, and uninformed to give it any effort.

  1772. #1773 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 9, 2016

    Damn! Still wrong. You get the idea.

  1773. #1774 Brainstorms
    February 9, 2016

    # 1766, 1767, 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771-3, …

    Dan & RickA actually suck at debating this. They’re getting the floor wiped with their asses.

    Dan, if the only way you can struggle to debate this is to lie, mislead, double-talk, obfuscate, deny, inveigle, and play childish word-games incessantly, then you’ve lost.

    You SUCK at debating this. Time to cop a plea agreement…

  1774. #1775 RickA
    United States
    February 9, 2016

    1774 posts and we “suck” at debating.

    Well maybe so.

    BBD has managed to turn his entire focus on the strawman of whether Mann’s work has been overturned.

    As I explained above – this is completely irrelevant to any issue in the defamation trial.

    As we all agreed to hundreds of posts ago – we will simply have to wait and see what happens in this case.

    Then we will see who was right and who was wrong.

    At the rate this case is proceeding – we might hit 560 ppm before it is decided.

    Then we can chime in on the science – because we will be able to measure effective climate sensitivity (not equilibrium – but effective). That piece of data (an actual measurement) will have real implications for which model is correct – Nic Lewis’ observationally constrained model or all the other models which are 30% to warm (see my Climate Audit link above).

    I know – I know – the science doesn’t matter to the issues at trial – but I couldn’t help myself.

  1775. #1776 Desertphile
    February 9, 2016

    RickA: “1774 posts and we “suck” at debating.”

    You clowns refuse to debate; paranoid conspiracy alarmists evade and avoid every opportunity to debate the subject of human-caused climate change. Ditto the helicentric model of the Solar System, evolution and evolutionary theory, and the conservation of energy. You clowns learned to avoid debate 70 years ago: that is why you have only blogs and fake “science journals.”

  1776. #1777 BBD
    February 9, 2016

    RickA

    BBD has managed to turn his entire focus on the strawman of whether Mann’s work has been overturned.

    Sigh. I’m not typing it all again. Read the thread:

    #1644:

    You aren’t talking about the law anymore, Dan

    […]

    This is what I object to in your commentary. You peddle contrarian talking points…

    And then deny it…

    That’s what this has *always* been about. See:

    #477
    #478
    #483
    #489
    #525
    #539
    #548

    …etc.

    If you can’t follow the discussion then leave it, RickA.

    * * *

    It’s amusing, inter alia to demonstrate just how easy it is to demonstrate that Mann’s work *isn’t* fraudulent, dishonest, misleading or deceptive. So easy that anyone could do it. No sciencey stuff required. Nada.

  1777. #1778 BBD
    February 9, 2016

    Goodness, more rubbish:

    As we all agreed to hundreds of posts ago – we will simply have to wait and see what happens in this case.

    We agreed no such thing, Rick. You are lying.

    Then we can chime in on the science – because we will be able to measure effective climate sensitivity (not equilibrium – but effective). That piece of data (an actual measurement) will have real implications for which model is correct – Nic Lewis’ observationally constrained model or all the other models which are 30% to warm (see my Climate Audit link above).

    Your CA rubbish was debunked upthread. Read the thread instead of spraying the same old shit all over it.

    It’s past time you went, really.

  1778. #1779 Brainstorms
    February 9, 2016

    RickA’s prescription model to determine whether or not what your child is about put in its mouth will be toxic enough to kill it:

    Wait to see if you child dies from it. “Because then we will be able to measure” how toxic it is.

    Everyone else: Do the science and assay it for toxicity, and keep the child from putting it in its mouth before anything harmful may happen.

  1779. #1780 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 9, 2016

    BBD: How can you presume to tell someone else “what they are talking about…”

    That is why I presumed you were younger, because only a younger, millennial type could honestly believe such an arrogant thought

  1780. #1781 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 9, 2016

    Brainstorms: Please give examples of when I “double-talk,” “lie” “obfuscate,” etc.

    I have made some mistakes, but I owned to them (i.e., overlooking Steyn’s use of the phrase “fraudulent hockey-stick” in his post, although it doesn’t change the analysis).

    Rick, of course you are right that whether Mann’s hockey stick was “over-turned” (again, whatever that means; i.e., by who? The inter-galatic commission on divining the veracity of all things science?).

    It is a first-amendment case, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out in light of Justice Kennedy’s language in Citizens United. I am paraphrasing, but in that opinion, he stated that, if the first amendment is going to mean anything at all, it certainly means people are free speech regarding political issues.

    Also, I love how people say “Steyn is not entitled to his own facts.” That, of course, is true. But what he is entitled to is his own interpretation of said facts. For example, it is a fact that emails sent between Mann and his colleagues at CRU contained phrases such as “hide-the-decline” and “Mike’s Nature Trick.” Those are facts. Steyn is entitled to interpret that those facts indicate dishonesty, trickery, fraud (or however else you may want to phrase it).

    He may be wrong, He may be right, but he is certainly entitled to interpret facts as he sees fit…

  1781. #1782 Dan
    February 9, 2016

    O.A., I agree I am not following the entire conversation, as I simply don’t have time. I also agree that I don’t determine the course of the conversation. If people here want to discuss the scientific merits of Mann’s hockey stick, have at it.

    What I can dictate is what I am here to discuss, and that is the legal issues surrounding Mann v. Steyn. After all, the proprietor of the blog posted an article which included “Steyn” and the “D.C. Court of Appeals” which seems like a good place to discuss the legal aspects. (And, to the limited extent I do comment on science, I acknowledge I am far from an expert in this case, and usually relate it back to the legal issues)

    What is frustrating is when others give scientific responses to legal issues. For example, BBD keeps insisting on evidence that the hockey stick has been overturned. That has nothing, at all, to due with the legal issues involved in Mann v. Steyn.

    If BBD disagrees, I have asked, repeatedly, for him to link to an source from a legal scholar demonstrating how, just as I linked to an article by a renown legal scholar on 1st Amendment issues backing up my contention that whether Mann is actually a fraud is not relevant to the case; rather, the issue is whether Steyn thought at the time Mann’s work was dishonest

  1782. #1783 Dan
    February 9, 2016

    And Brainstorms, you can think I or RickA “suck” at debating. As with most skills, I will let the market determine that. Let me know when someone pays you hundreds of dollars an hour to “debate” on their behalf. Let me know when you have successfully debated an issue in front of a jury, arbitrator, judge, etc.

    Until then, it is kind of like a pub-league soccer-player telling a professional that he “sucks” at soccer

  1783. #1784 BBD
    February 9, 2016

    Dan

    BBD: How can you presume to tell someone else “what they are talking about…”

    By following what they are actually saying, as opposed to what they *claim* they are actually saying and pointing out the difference.

    It’s not hard, if you aren’t stupid.

  1784. #1785 BBD
    February 9, 2016

    And Dan, watching you dodge the question is – at this point – beyond parody.

    * * *

    It’s *so* easy to demonstrate that Mann’s work *wasn’t* fraudulent, dishonest, misleading or deceptive. So easy that even a jury could understand it.

    Just a simple question… and a simple answer…

    You should have gone ages ago, Dan. You could have been spared this.

  1785. #1786 Brainstorms
    February 9, 2016

    And Brainstorms, you can think I or RickA “suck” at debating. As with most skills, I will let the market determine that.

    Last I looked, there is no “market” on this blog. The displayed skills (and lack thereof) are listed: 1, 2, … 1785. That’s what you’re judged on.

    And I can tell you that based on what we’re seeing here, no one believes you’re a good lawyer. Unless that just amounts to “good at deceiving people” — and fairly dim-witted ones that would be. You don’t fool anyone on this blog…

    Because your debating skills suck. And your Dunning-Kruger-fueled ego is a spectacle, too.

  1786. #1787 Brainstorms
    February 9, 2016

    Dan “The Black Knight” Lawyer
    meets
    King “Climate Scientist” Arthur
    in a debate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjEcj8KpuJw

    Now stand aside…

  1787. #1788 Chris O'Neill
    February 10, 2016

    Dan: “Steyn is entitled to interpret that those facts indicate dishonesty, trickery, fraud”

    Actually Steyn is not entitled to recklessly interpret that those facts indicate dishonesty, trickery, fraud.

    “he is certainly entitled to interpret facts as he sees fit”

    excluding of course, certain reckless interpretations…

  1788. #1789 Chris O'Neill
    February 10, 2016

    Dan: “questioning the motives of your adversary usually doesn’t get you very far because it reeks of desperation”

    I agree. Steyn is desperate to suggest that Mann’s motive in writing MBH98 was deception.

  1789. #1790 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 11, 2016

    Like I said, Brainstorms, you are entitled to your opinion. So are my clients, and so are the juries that have found in favor of my client(s) in every single case I have taken to verdict….

    Chris: Steyn it is not reckless for steyn to interpret facts as he sees fit. A perfect example is “Bridgegate” involving NJ Gov. Chris Christie (for those who dont know, GW lanes were shut down Fort Lee, NJ, causing traffic havoc. It was done b/c Ft. Lee’s mayor did not support Christie’s re-election bid).

    Christie claims he knew nothing about it, and all actions were done by staffers without his knowledge. He was “exonerated” by an FBI investigation. Yet, many media outlets, including the NY Daily News and NYT, continue to maintain that Christie was involved more then he let on, and staffers took the fall for him

    See, the beauty of the 1st Amendment is that it allows people to express opinions on all matters, including investigations. We, as a citizenry, are allowed to question the results of investigations if we think they reached the wrong conclusion, ignored evidence, were biased.

    In Bridgegate, many people think the investigation was a sham and staffers fell on the sword. With Mann’s investigations by PSU, Steyn made the comment in the subject blog post that a University with a poor track record in investigating staffers (hence the Sandusky reference) should not be given the benefit of the doubt when investigating other staffers.

    Just like NJ’s political machine has a history of protecting the political class, Steyn argues (and again, you can disagree) that PSU had a track record of protecting its own.

    Agree. Disagree. It is a fair point by Steyn, and certainly within the purview of protected speech.

    Get over it. People are going to disagree with you from time to time. Learning to agree to disagree will get you (not to mention Mann) much farther in life. As it is, Mann has risked a substantial portion of his assets b/c, if his suit fails, which it likely will according to every legal analyst I can find that has opined on it, he will be responsible for at least Steyn’s costs, and probably attorneys fees, which could run into the millions.

    He would have been much better served to simply respond to steyn in the public forum, publish any and all info relating, and let the public decide (of course, he won’t even respond to Steyn’s discovery requests, which further suggests he has something to hide)

  1790. #1791 Chris O'Neill
    February 11, 2016

    Dan: “Steyn it is not reckless for steyn to interpret facts as he sees fit.”

    It is if his “interpretation” is reckless.

    “the 1st Amendment”

    You just never give up with the strawman arguments, do you Dan? Spare us for heaven’s sake.

    “Steyn argues (and again, you can disagree) that PSU had a track record of protecting its own.”

    You’re pathological Dan. When are you going to get over making strawman arguments?

    As you implied, Steyn is desperate to suggest that Mann’s motive in writing MBH98 was deception.

  1791. #1792 SteveP
    Under A Narctic Air Mass
    February 12, 2016

    What? No posts today? Is this fight petering out? Here let me throw some petrol on the embers and see if we can’t re-ignite this battle.

    I want to suggest to the opposition that Dr. Mann is, in the eyes of most scientists, just sticking up for his free speech rights. Doesn’t he have a right to conduct research and publish his results without being continually harassed, humiliated, lied about and lambasted by well connected lame brains with loud voices, powerful connections, deep pockets and very tiny brains?

    The first amendment of the US constitution, as I understand it, was about a number of things, most having to do with preventing the newly born government from doing the crappy things that the old one was fond of doing, like suppressing the press. Today, we in the USA have a government which is largely in the hands of corporatist, fossil fuel funded Republicans. And guess what. They are trying to repress the free speech of scientists who threaten their crude, stinking, sulfurous, gassy,corrupt, oily gravy train. Only they are clever enough to do much of their work through proxies like the despicable M. Steyn.

    So yes, the Mann suit does raise free speech issues. It is about a the powerful governance of the petrochemical industry, which is trying to suppress a scientists trying to do what is right for humanity.

    Anybody got a light?

  1792. #1793 Bernard J.
    February 14, 2016

    Australian readers of this rat’s-tooth thread might like to consider submitting a question for Q and A to put to Mark Steyne who is a panelist on tonight’s episode

  1793. #1794 Desertphile
    February 14, 2016

    Australian readers of this rat’s-tooth thread might like to consider submitting a question for Q and A to put to Mark Steyne who is a panelist on tonight’s episode

    I asked Steyn where he will get all the money to pay Dr. Mann for actual damages and punitive damages.

  1794. #1795 Dan
    February 16, 2016

    Steve P: Yes, Mann absolutely has First Amendment rights to publish his research. How, exactly, did Steyn prohibit him from doing same?

    Ah, yes: you somehow think Mann has the right to free speech without being “harassed, humiliated, etc” (Note: Mann would only be humiliated if the allegations are true).

    Sorry, the First Amendment doesn’t work that way. If you can provide any legal authority holding the proposition that one’s first amendment rights necessarily entail the right to be free from humiliation, please post same.

    Actually, the First Amendment, and case law interpreting same, recognizes that free speech will often result in embarrassment or harassment, but it is worth it because free speech is absolutely necessary to a free society.

    Take, for example, Falwell v. Hustler. Certainly, Jerry Falwell was humiliated by the speech contained in the magazine, but the Court held, rightly, that as a public citizen, Mr. Falwell was open to debate, criticism, satire, sarcasm, etc. Thus, the magazine was well-within its rights to state that Falwell was a perverted, misogynistic, deviant abuser.

    The funny thing about the whole free-speech debate is that the political left is notorious for vile speech about right-wingers they don’t like (particularly conservative women, who, by and large, tend to be farm more attractive then liberal women. See, e.g., Michelle Malkin, Stacy Dash, Elisabeth Hasselback, S.E. Cupp, Sarah Palin, etc). There have been numerous articles in which members of the left-wing chattering class posted articles about wanting to “hate-fuck” those listed above (and more). In reality, that is a funny way to say rape.

    I am no fan of Ms. Palin, but if anyone had a right to libel or defamation lawsuit, it would be her. Larry Flynt made a porno called whose nailin sarah paylin. Many noteworthy left-wing commentators claimed, without a shred of proof, that Trig Palin was actually her daughters, and Palin just said it was hers to protect her unwed daughter.

    The First Amendment presumes public figures are adults, and can handle satire, criticism, even insults, without running to “mommy and daddy;” i.e., the court system, asking them to make the big, mean Mr. steyn stop saying nasty words…

  1795. #1796 Dan
    February 16, 2016

    Chris Oneill: Your last post contains lots of accusations but nothing to back it up. How, exactly, is my reference to the first amendment a straw man? Is it your position Mann v. Steyn is not a First Amendment Case? (Is so, Mann’s fancy lawyers screwed up, because their entire complaint is based on the First Amendment).

    You say Steyn’s interpretation is reckless. Ok, what is the legal definition of reckless? What legal authority do you have that Mann can succeed simply by showing Steyn was reckless, as opposed to have to show malice?

    At least when I comment on the case, I back it up with cites to legal articles, case law, statutory authority, etc., You just spout out verbal fecal matter, and wait for the loving approval of your fellow Mann lovers.

    It is kind of sad, really….

  1796. #1797 Dan
    February 16, 2016

    Chris: The funniest part is that you no longer even try to craft an intelligent response to my post. I provided a real-life, recent example of a similar situation involving an investigation, an “exoneration” by said investigation, and criticism within the media about said exoneration and the committee that made that decision.

    I pointed out that, just like Bridgegate, Mann’s situation involves an investigation into wrongdoing, an “exoneration” of any wrongdoing by said investigation, and criticism by some members of the media of the investigation.

    If you and your fellow Mann-lover boys are correct, then Christie would have libel actions against each and every media outlet who criticized the investigation and claims Christies involvement was larger then found.

    Or course, he doesn’t have a case because we live in a society that values free speech, and recognize that once you start limiting the ability of the citizenry to question, criticize, or, yes, even insult the status quo establishment, we cease to be free citizens and will be reduced to nothing more then little minions expected to do our work and shut up.

    Maybe that is what you want? Maybe you have no desire to “speak truth to power;” to question the government, to question establishment scientists, or judges, or even your local school board. If so, good for you. It must be nice to be content to go through life being led around by the nose, not having to think…

    And, btw, I am currently reading a biography of Christy called “America’s Governor” by Matt Katz. In it, Katz describes how Christie was the staring catcher of his high school baseball team his freshman, sophomore and junior years. When he was a senior, a talented catcher, who ended up playing pro ball, transferred to Christie and took his starting spot.

    How did Christie respond, per Katz? His family considered legal action. So don’t tell me Christie isn’t the suing type. He is almost as thin-skinned as Mann, and would love to sue those who criticize him.

    Thank God for the First Amendment.

  1797. #1798 Chris O'Neill
    February 16, 2016

    Dan. No-one is disputing that the 1st Amendment allows people to express opinions on all matters. Your implication that someone is disputing this is a strawman.

    “You say Steyn’s interpretation is reckless.”

    Rubbish Dan. I said he’s not entitled to be reckless. It’s up to the court to decide if he was reckless.

    “What legal authority do you have that Mann can succeed simply by showing Steyn was reckless, as opposed to have to show malice?”

    “reckless disregard” is included in the definition of “malice” as it applies in the libel context. Your post is redundant; kind of like saying an act is “illegal and against the law.”

    “At least when I comment on the case, I back it up with cites to legal articles, case law, statutory authority, etc.”

    Like me Dan. http://legal-planet.org/2014/08/18/why-michael-manns-defamation-suit-against-climate-denialists-is-the-right-move/

    “You just spout out verbal fecal matter”

    What a hypocrite you are Dan.

    “It is kind of sad, really”

    Spare me the concern trolling….

  1798. #1799 Chris O'Neill
    February 16, 2016

    “The funniest part is that you no longer even try to craft an intelligent response to my post.”

    You are a master of irony Dan.

    “I provided a real-life, recent example of a similar situation”

    Rubbish Dan. Your so-called “perfect” example is anything but. The issue is about Steyne saying Mann did something fraudulent, NOT about whether “a University with a poor track record in investigating staffers should not be given the benefit of the doubt when investigating other staffers”.

  1799. #1800 Chris O'Neill
    February 16, 2016

    Q and A

    Terri Butler gave Steyn a good smackdown on his apparently favourite subject.

    Judging by his performance on Q and A, I’d guess Steyn will have his work cut out for him stopping people from thinking that he’s more than just some dumb patsy who gullibly repeats words from “scientists”.

  1800. #1801 Bernard J.
    February 16, 2016

    Terri Butler: “Well, except if you can’t say what you think without vilifying people, then perhaps you need to think about whether you are smart enough to be making the (remark) in the first place.”

  1801. #1802 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 17, 2016

    Chris: I never said it was a “perfect” example; analogies are rarely ever “perfect.” I said it was a recent, real-life example because: both Mann and Christie are public figures, both Mann and Christie were accused of wrongdoing, the accusations against both were sufficient to warrant investigations, both were “exonerated” said investigations, and many people in the media were critical of said exonerations because the investigative panel has a history of bias (In Mann’s case, there was a history of not thoroughly investigating university employees — see Sandusky; for Christie, the panel had many Christie cronies).

    The editorial editor of the Star-Ledger (NJ’s largest paper) has been highly critical of Christie and continues to accuse him, in print, of intentionally causing the delays. He goes so far as to accuse Christie’s conduct as causing the death of at least one citizen, and paramedics were unable to reach a Fort Lee resident who had a heart attack.

    Yet, Christie doesn’t sue. Why? He is smart enough to know that, as a public figure, he is afforded little, if any, First Amendment protection. And rightly so, because he, like Mann, would abuse such protections.

    Of course, I wouldn’t expect you to grasp the analogy between the two.

  1802. #1803 Dan
    February 17, 2016

    Chris: Have you even read the post that is the subject of the lawsuit? If not, you should. Steyn still has it posted on his website. The point of the post is clearly that a fellow commentator, in comparing the Sandusky and Mann investigations (of course, Steyn disavowed the whole “locker-room” shower metaphor) had a point: If a university is willing to turn a blind eye to systemic rape of juveniles, certainly, it stands to reason, it would turn a blind eye to a science professor cherry-picking evidence.

    Again, you can disagree with Steyn. But, he makes a legitimate point about a prominent issue of the day that is well within the confines of first amendment protections

  1803. #1804 Marco
    February 17, 2016

    “had a point: If a university is willing to turn a blind eye to systemic rape of juveniles, certainly, it stands to reason, it would turn a blind eye to a science professor cherry-picking evidence. ”

    Which ignores the fact that
    a) the actual investigation of Mann was done by people completely different from the few involved in the Sandusky case, and
    b) others *outside* the university also had investigated the hockeystick and found no evidence
    c) your interpretation of what Simberg meant is very questionable. It most certainly is not what he wrote…

  1804. #1805 dean
    United States
    February 17, 2016

    “it stands to reason”

    No, it does not stand to reason. On the one hand you have accusations against a member of a university segment that brings in millions of dollars of revenue (the football/athletic program): horrible as the decision was, the decision to ignore the first accusations of rape against one of the pillars in that program were based entirely on fear of losing the revenue and the deserved shit-storm of public opinion backlash that would come from admitting what happened. In short – they made the same decision the catholic church made (and is still making) for centuries: cover it up.

    The Mann situation, in addition to not involving any wrong doing (no matter how much the serially dishonest, like you Dan, insist was there) did not involve large revenue streams to the school. The accusations were seen as pure crap, justifiably so, because they were and are.

    Your continued lying doesn’t make them true, and it doesn’t make the comparison valid to anyone with an intellect above the level of a slug.

  1805. #1806 SteveP
    February 17, 2016

    Dan #1795
    Perhaps in the part of the legal system that you inhabit one can only be humiliated by the truth, but in common parlance, that is not the case. The act of loudly proclaiming or broadcasting a lie about someone is in and of itself a form of humiliation because it highlights the powerlessness of the victim to prevent it. It is a form of verbal rape. Like rape, it exploits and depends upon the inability of the victim to defend themselves. But guess what. Sometimes the victim fights back. Mann’s suit against Steyn is a well deserved kick in the nuts to a verbal bully.

    Now as to your weak attempt to link the entire left wing to vile attacks against female right wing hate enthusiasts supposedly made by someone called the chattering class, whoever that may be…. That is pathetic. Would you like me to link you to Anders Behring Breivik? He seems to share your contempt for the left.

    I think what is at issue here is more than just a simple lawsuit. I think that what we are dealing with is the growing desire of the right wing to torture and bully, to water board and hate, to humiliate and conquer, to subjugate and control, to love the violence of guns and to be in love with hatred and sadism. In my opinion, anyone with even a kindergarten level of civility knows that what Mark Steyn wrote was pointlessly rude, churlish, bullying and vile. I’m sure that someone like the loathsome recently deceased conservative textualist could find all sorts of sick, sadistic pretexts to defend Steyn’s coarse speech, as I am fairly certain you will continue to do. Steyn has stuck his obnoxious head far into the tent of science, largely, I suspect, as a kind of hired character assassin. By the laws of Nature and Nature’s God, he deserves to get his head figuratively handed back to him on a silver platter. He is not defending free speech. He is hiding behind the skirts of free speech and taking pot shots at scientists at the behest of fossil fuel interests. So please don’t defend the rapist. He has no right to rape. Really.

  1806. #1807 Dan
    February 17, 2016

    Steve: Steyn’s comments were indeed rude, possible churlish. I certainly don’t think they were vile, at least compared to other speech on the internet (as an example, the aforementioned former Gov., of Alaska, in which a political poster was made with a bloody hanger saying “better luck next time” in reference to her mentally-disabled child. To me, that is vile. Another example would be calling a recently deceased member of the Supreme Court “loathsome” before his funeral. IF you want to see true civility, look at the obituary of Justice Scalia written by Justice Ginsberg. They disagreed on almost everything, but were best of friends on the court. They, like me, and unlike all of you, possess the ability to disagree with people on issues without being disagreeable).

    The whole point of the Mann v. Steyn dispute is “what is the truth.” You, and all of Mann’s other supporters, can’t handle the fact that some people disagree with you. While you think Mann’s work is legit, some people think Mann cherry-picked data and was therefore fraudulent. People can disagree. That is the beauty of living in a free society. Curiously, another similar aspect of the Mann and Christie situations is the role of emails. One of Christie’s aids, Bridget Kelly, wrote an email saying “time for traffic issues in Fort Lee.” Mann, obviously, was involved with the climate-gate emails.

    This all goes back to RickA’s point: Steyn’s comments were his OPINION. Contrary to what you believe, your opinion regarding Mann’s work is not the gospel truth. Some people disagree with him, and think he is a fraud (I would submit that, with almost any prominent politician, academic, scientist, etc., there are going to be at least some people who think they are frauds. Every President going back to Carter has been called a criminal in one way or another: a war criminal, a perjurer, or Iran Contra involvement as either President or Vice-President for Bush 41 and Reagan.

    The frontrunner (former?) of the democratic party has been accused by many of being a criminal.

    And, yes, I will continue to defend Steyn, but again, my point flies above you. I will absolutely defend ANYONE’S right to say what they please about public persons and issues (yes, even those who post pictures of a bloody–hangers and insinuate a politician should have self-aborted a handicapped child). I will even defend your right to call Steyn vile, churlish, a bully, etc..

    Remember that quant old notion of “disagree with what you say, but will fight to the death with your right to say it?)

    Lastly, your belief that Mann cannot defend himself is silly. One of the justifications of loosening First Amendment protections for public persons is precisely because they are public persons and have access to the pubic domain. If you libel me, I will have a difficult time defending myself via the media because, frankly, the media isn’t much interested in me.

    If Mann an untruth is spoken about Mann, he has ample opportunity to defend himself because he is often in the pubic arena.

    Such a system is, by far, the best way to ensure free speech, debate, thought, while simultaneously protecting those who can’t protect themselves.

  1807. #1808 Chris O'Neill
    February 17, 2016

    Dan: “If a university is willing to turn a blind eye to systemic rape of juveniles, certainly, it stands to reason, it would turn a blind eye to a science professor”

    Which would mean Steyn could accuse everyone associated with the university of fraudulent action simply because they are associated with the university.

    I don’t think so Dan.

  1808. #1810 Dan
    February 17, 2016

    Btw, Stephen, what was so “vile” about Steyn’s post? Certainly, it wasn’t the Sandusky reference, because Steyn didn’t make that reference, and specifically walked it back.

    Was it saying the hockey-stick was fraudulent? Steyn might be wrong, but what other word should he have used? Dishonest, maybe? Is fraudulent really that much worse?

    And, since you brought up Scalia, I might as well remind you that he has been one of the biggest champions of freedom and democracy in the past 50 years of American life.

    I wouldn’t expect you brainwashed lemmings to get this, but judicial restraint/originialism promotes democracy. How?

    Simple: every time the court creates a new “right,” thereby taking that issue out of the legislative (preferably at the state-level) domain, we become less free as a society.

    Take abortion. I happen to be pro-choice, but think Roe was a horrendous decision. The issue of how to treat the unborn is a complicated issue involving medicine, philosophy, theology, etc. Milenia of societies have, and continue, to debate this issue. Yet we, as Americans, are unable to engage in this debate because 9 black-robed philosopher kings made that decision for us.

    Another good example is Lawrence v. Texas, which found a right to homosexual sodomy. Scalia dissented, and pointed out the difference between the constitution PREVENTING something and the constitution REQUIRING something.

    The constitution certainly does not require gay relations be made illegal; at the same time, it does not prevent. That issue rightly belongs within the domain of the people, through their elected representatives (and, if such a law is as offensive as many think, then it stands to reason any elected representative supporting such a ban would be voted out of office). I personally am not in favor of such a law, but it is an issue for us citizens to decide.

    And, to back up Scalia’s point, the framers specifically left in place a process to amend the constitution if necessary. Thus, if society really feels the need for a constitutional right to gay relations or abortions (or to eliminate the right to bear arms) the proper method is to amend the constitution by getting two-thirds majorities in both houses of congress and ratification by two-thirds of the states.

    We should all be offended when 9 people in Washington, sitting in their marbled-tower perch, impose their will on the rest of society. Scalia, perhaps more then any other, recognized the mortal threat judicial activism is to democracy. For that, we should all be thankful.

    You’re welcome for that primer in constitutional theory….

  1809. #1811 Dan
    February 17, 2016

    Sorry, Chris: I was referring to the post immediately above. I am a busy person, and don’t remember every descriptive work I use. I will take back the word “perfect” and restate it is “a good” example. Happy?

    And, Dean, people can disagree on whether the Mann situation involved wrongdoing. Just because you don’t think it did does not mean it is a “fact.” And, yes, the Mann situation certainly involved “millions” of dollars, as Dr. Mann’s research brought in millions of dollars in grant money for research.

    It is a “good” example of how free speech in our society works. If I recall correctly, some of the commentators are from outside of the United States. That makes sense, as your sense of free speech is far less refined then ours (for example, les-majeste law).

    In the United States, that shining city on the hill, we are allowed to criticize politicians, university professors, or anyone else we see fit.

    Aint freedom grand?

    And

  1810. #1812 Dan
    February 17, 2016

    Chris: Btw, we call that check-mate where I come from. Now run along to mommy….

  1811. #1813 Chris O'Neill
    February 17, 2016

    Dan: “I don’t remember every descriptive work I use.”

    As a slight variation on what Terri Butler (quoted by Bernard) said:

    ““Well, except if you can’t say what you think without making shit up, then perhaps you need to think about whether you are smart enough to be making the (remark) in the first place.”

  1812. #1814 dean
    United States
    February 17, 2016

    “about right-wingers they don’t like (particularly conservative women, who, by and large, tend to be farm more attractive then liberal women.”

    There really is no bit of bullshit too stupid for you to repeat is there dan.
    The only thing you’re convincing people of is that passing the bar is not as difficult as advertised.

  1813. #1815 dean
    February 17, 2016

    “And, Dean, people can disagree on whether the Mann situation involved wrongdoing. Just because you don’t think it did does not mean it is a “fact.””

    The fact that you continue to lie and say there was wrongdoing, when none was ever found, and his work was verified, does one thing: you are a habitual liar.

  1814. #1816 Chris O'Neill
    February 17, 2016

    Indeed Dan. You are checkmated.

  1815. #1817 Kevin O'Neill
    Franklin, WI USA
    February 17, 2016

    Dan writes:”That makes sense, as your sense of free speech is far less refined then ours …”

    Jesus, another ignoramus. I do admit to being a bit ashamed of my fellow countrymen at times – especially when they are as ignorant as Dan. Here we go, Dan. Just for you. A timeline of free speech. Note the idea existed a couple *millenia* before the USA was created.

    O just visit wiki – Freedom of Speech:Origins.

    I really don’t have much patience for flag-waving, parochial, ignorant asses – i..e., the Dans of this world.

  1816. #1818 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 17, 2016

    The whole point of the Mann v. Steyn dispute is “what is the truth.”

    Really? You mean regarding the science or regarding the case? It sounds to me like you are purposely conflating the two. And then, as though in confirmation, you troll:

    You, and all of Mann’s other supporters, can’t handle the fact that some people disagree with you.

    That is both clueless of the nuances of why people are so worked up, and unintentionally ironic.

    While you think Mann’s work is legit, some people think Mann cherry-picked data and was therefore fraudulent. People can disagree.

    What you are arguing for here is neither law nor science but journalistic false balance. Sit down with your daddy and have him explain it to you.

    On THAT subject, the important and relevant scientific debates occur in legitimate peer reviewed literature. The eyeballs-to-advertising side show barking that you are addicted to may be of interest politically, but that lies outside the realm of professional science. 

    So far as I can see, you willy nilly conflate public puffery, law, science, policy and politics (not to mention logic with rhetorical subterfuge, and how science functions with conspiracy theories) and are therefore not capable of evaluating the merits of the case and where the professional harm lies.

    …One of Christie’s aids, Bridget Kelly, wrote an email saying “time for traffic issues in Fort Lee.” Mann, obviously, was involved with the climate-gate emails.

    WTF? In what way are you not a troll?

  1817. #1819 Chris O'Neill
    February 17, 2016

    Dan:

    particularly conservative women, who, by and large, tend to be farm more attractive then liberal women

    And Dan would know the farm has even more attractive things than women.

  1818. #1820 Desertphile
    February 18, 2016

    Dan “The ‘Lawyer:'” “… particularly conservative women, who, by and large, tend to be farm more attractive then liberal women….”

    Chris O’Neill: “And Dan would know the farm has even more attractive things than women.”

    Conservative farm women are more attractive than all the other women in the word…. Gosh, when I visited Denmark and Sweden I some how got the opposite impression.

  1819. #1821 Bernard J.
    February 18, 2016

    Dan:

    “…then…” (x -> ∞)

    You keep using that word

  1820. #1822 BBD
    February 18, 2016

    As dean observes:

    The only thing you’re convincing people of is that passing the bar is not as difficult as advertised.

    Quite.

  1821. #1823 Dan
    February 18, 2016

    O.A. How did you know my Dad is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and (recently retired) managing editor of the largest news organization in the world? Huh, nice research.

    Anyway, I have had lots of conversations with my old man regarding free speech and the press, and the organization which he ran has been at the forefront of many of the biggest news stories of the past decade. He, of all people, understands why multiple news organizations filed amicus briefs on Steyn’s behalf.

    You are comparing Apples to Oranges, O.A.: i.e,, journalistic productions (blogs, editorials, columns, etc,) as opposed to peer-reviewed research. Steyn didn’t make his comments in a peer-reviewed column.

    And, as someone who litigates over peer-reviewed research on a daily basis (i.e., is there any p/r medical journals supporting a plaintiff undergoing a lifetime of radio frequency rhizotomies for facet-mediated spine pain?) One is always allowed to contest and critique the foundation of the peer-reviewed study: was a placebo effect ruled out (in a medical situation); was the sample size large enough, truly randow, etc. Or, as per Steyn, did the authors of the study cherry-pick data.

    Again, you can disagree with Steyn until the cows come home. And, steyn could be in the tiniest of minorities. In fact, Steyn could be the only person expressing that view.
    But the point is, free speech depends on that view.

    Why doesn’t Mann, instead of suing (and, ironically, refusing to respond to data) simply produce all of his evidence and data for the study.

    If Steyn is as wrong as all of you say, Steyn will come across as a fool. As it is, Mann’s behavior raises further suspicion, particularly his unwillingness to respond to discovery.

    And re: “the bar is easy to pass,” why, yes, it was for me. Passed first try without really studying. If it is so easy (the pass rate for my exam was approximately 50%), have at it…there is good money to be made in the legal field in Nevada, as the number of lawyers hasn’t kept up with the population growth…

  1822. #1824 Dan
    Las Vegas
    February 18, 2016

    Kevin: What on earth does the fact that the idea of free speech exited before the U.S.A. existed? No on doubts that. Talk about a red-herring.

    But, legally speaking, for most of the past two and a half centuries, America’s free speech rights exceeded that of most other western countries.

    Case in point: In many western European Countries you can go to jail for simply denying the holocaust (which is an atrocious position, but one people should be free to take). In fact, one person went to prison for simply the murders took place at the east Polish camps (i.e., Sobibor, Treblinka) as opposed to Auschwitz, and was done via mass shootings as opposed to gas chambers.

    Or, take Canada, in which a muslim group sought to preclude Mark Steyn from ever publishing another article in that, his home country, simply because he wrote an article critical of Islam’s treatment of woman — particularly honor killings and female genital mutilation. Steyn challenged the ruling, won, and the law was taken of the books.

    Thank God for Steyn (that law still exits in many Commonwealth countries).

    So, yes, our free speech rights are greater then most of the rest of the civilized world. Other countries may have started it, but we have advanced it…

    (And, nothing against Europe. My aforementioned father resided in the UK for the past 5 years before retiring. I love the UK and Europe and go there multiple times yearly. I think it is said that people can go to prison simply for exposing a view.).

    Another good –not perfect — example involves Tottenham Hotspur Football club. They have a large Jewish fan base, and opposing fans would call them yids. So, they stole the term and created the “Yid Army.”

    The U.K. parliament recently made it illegal to chant “Yid,” and arrests were made. The problem was, most arrests were of Spurs fans chanting “Yid” as a sign of taking that word back.

    Nothing good comes from limiting free speech. I wish Mann could see same, be a “Man” and fight Steyn in the marketplace of ideas, as opposed to running to the courts for protection…

  1823. #1825 dean
    February 18, 2016

    “Or, as per Steyn, did the authors of the study cherry-pick data.”

    See, there you are lying again. Why should any of your comments about your reputation be believed when you make false statements about something like this?

  1824. #1826 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 18, 2016

    Dan, 

    You mentioned your father here, so I can’t take much credit for research. All I did was read what you said, a courtesy you should also extend…

    Anyway, I have had lots of conversations…

    But apparently not on the issue of false balance.

    You are comparing Apples to Oranges, O.A.: i.e,, journalistic productions (blogs, editorials, columns, etc,) as opposed to peer-reviewed research. Steyn didn’t make his comments in a peer-reviewed column.

    I was purposely making a point about drawing distinctions. Again, reading. Or maybe you just didn’t like where I was going with that…

    Or, as per Steyn, did the authors of the study cherry-pick data.

    In court. With blog science. Right.

    Again, you can disagree with Steyn until the cows come home. And, steyn could be in the tiniest of minorities. In fact, Steyn could be the only person expressing that view.
    But the point is, free speech depends on that view.

    Very pretty. Doesn’t address defamation. 

    Why doesn’t Mann, instead of suing (and, ironically, refusing to respond to data) simply produce all of his evidence and data for the study.

    I believe the data out there. This is such a common propaganda talking point (lie) about climate data that it’s hard to know what data you’re talking about.

    …further suspicion…

    Yes we know. You are very suspicious.

    And re: “the bar is easy to pass,” why, yes, it was for me…

    Not my comment, but whatever.

  1825. #1827 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 18, 2016

    “Or, as per Steyn, did the authors of the study cherry-pick data.”

    Ah, I misread that. Dean got it right:

    “See, there you are lying again. Why should any of your comments about your reputation be believed when you make false statements about something like this?”

  1826. #1828 BBD
    February 18, 2016

    Dan

    If Steyn is as wrong as all of you say, Steyn will come across as a fool.

    I have shown you very clearly that Steyn is wrong. So he is not the only one who looks like a fool.

  1827. #1829 Dan
    February 18, 2016

    BBD: Great. Steyn is wrong. Then why does Mann have to resort to litigation? Why is refusing to respond to discovery? Why doesn’t he simply produce the foundation for his studies, and leave it at that?

    And, I have showed you, over and over, why Mann doesn’t have a case, yet you refuse to acknowledge same…

    Let me ask a simple question: Suppose a climate scientist produces a peer-reviewed studying showing no warming. Then, it is discovered via leaked emails that said scientist tried to “hide the warming” and used a “nature trick.”

    Would scientists, journalists, etc. be committing libel for stating their opinion the peer-reviewed study was fraudulent?

    If you answer yes, you cannot justify Mann’s case. It is the same thing

  1828. #1830 Dan
    February 18, 2016

    O.A.: Not sure what you are talking about. One of Steyn’s (and Curry’s, etc) criticism of Mann is that he ignored/suppressed data that didn’t support his favored conclusion.

    Certainly, people should be able to say so, if they believe it, no?

    And, my post does address free speech: Steyn’ right to criticize Mann, and call him a fraud if he thinks Mann is one. Mann, among others, have called Steyn worse.

    Let me ask: Do you think Steyn truly, and honestly, believes Mann’s work is fraudulent?

    Also, it is funny how you guys keep pointing back to “lies of mine” (I have made mistakes, and readily acknowledge same) as a reason to suggest I have no credibility.

    Well, on that standard, isn’t fair for Steyn, or others, to think Mann lacks credibility? After all, he falsely claimed, in legal papers no less, to be a Nobel Prize winner and only rescinded that claim when instructed to by the Nobel Institute…

  1829. #1831 Dan
    February 18, 2016

    Also, answer this: If Steyn libeled Mann for calling him (or his work) fraudulent, didn’t the proprietor of this blog, Greg Laden, libel Steyn for calling him a racist?

    Surely, being called a racist is far worse then being called a fraud. And Laden’s rationale, some racist “dog-whistle,” which presumably only racists can hear, simply because Steyn used the phrase “landlord-tenant judge.”

    I wasn’t aware that calling someone a “landlord/tenant judge” is the same as calling them the N-word. That whole proposition is patently absurd.

    But, it brings up a larger point: be careful what you wish for. If free speech protections keep getting taken away, it is only a matter of time before someone sues you for having the temerity to voice your opinion…

  1830. #1832 RickA
    United States
    February 18, 2016

    Dan #1829:

    You said “And, I have showed you, over and over, why Mann doesn’t have a case, yet you refuse to acknowledge same…”

    The people you are arguing with will no more acknowledge you are right than you will acknowledge they are right.

    We will have to wait to see what happens on appeal, and if the case survives that, what happens on summary judgment, and if the case survives that, what happens at trial.

    Then and only then can we determine who was right.

    Of course, I agree with you – that ultimately Mann should lose.

    Steyn’s writing is an opinion, it is not false and was written without malice. If Steyn wins on any one of these three arguments, he wins – Mann has to win on all three or he loses.

    Time will tell.

    I am giving up posting on this thread because we are all just repeating ourselves.

  1831. #1833 Kevin O'Neill
    Franklin, WI USA
    February 18, 2016

    Dan – do you live in an alternate reality? I can point to dozens of articles that read like this:

    “In the months before the 2004 election, dozens of people across the nation were banished from or arrested at Bush political rallies, some for heckling the president, others simply for holding signs or wearing clothing that expressed opposition to the war and administration policies.”

    Or we can go back to my youth – the sixties and seventies with COINTELPRO, the illegal FBI program. As Wiki says: “FBI records show that COINTELPRO resources targeted groups and individuals that the FBI deemed “subversive”,[4] including anti-Vietnam War organizers, members of black civil rights and nationalist liberation organizations (e.g. Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Black Panther Party), feminist organizations, anti-colonial movements (such as Puerto Rican independence groups), and a variety of organizations that were part of the broader “New Left”.

    Or let’s go back to the early years of the republic itself and the Alien and Sedition Acts? Numerous people were tried and imprisoned for criticizing the President or even just insulting him.

    Have you already forgotten the ‘No-Fly’ lists that include(d) nuns, priests, and assorted pacifists because they’ve had the gall to actually participate in *peace protests?*

    Instead what we have is free speech for people that don’t actually exist – corporations. That’s really a stumper. The idea that America’s free-speech is more ‘refined’ is just ignorant drivel.

  1832. #1834 BBD
    February 18, 2016

    Dan

    Let me ask a simple question:

    Not before you answer one asked earlier:

    How can Mann’s work be fraudulent, deceptive, misleading etc. when subsequent studies have not shown it to be fundamentally wrong?

    You keep bringing up the checkmate thing, so have a pause for thought.

  1833. #1835 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 18, 2016

    Dan
    O.A.: Not sure what you are talking about.

     
    Yeah.

    And, my post does address free speech

    (bold mine.)Defamation. I said defamation. I said your post didn’t address defamation.

    Let me ask: Do you think Steyn truly, and honestly, believes Mann’s work is fraudulent?

    Here’s an opinion you’ll enjoy: What I have read of Steyn’s writing indicates to me that he is a pus filled bubo.

    Also, it is funny how you guys keep pointing back to “lies of mine” (I have made mistakes, and readily acknowledge same) as a reason to suggest I have no credibility.

    I’m pretty sure I haven’t said that. In my last comment, I referred to a pattern of known lying that you might be repeating. Let me be clear on this point. I’m perfectly willing to concede that you may be too new to this subject to know the difference, but also that you may not give a damn either way.

    …Nobel Prize [etc., etc.]

    You have no sense of proportion, Richelieu, which is probably why you feel justified in clutching at straws.

    Also, answer this: If Steyn libeled Mann for calling him (or his work) fraudulent, didn’t the proprietor of this blog, Greg Laden, libel Steyn for calling him a racist?

    No, I suspect that would only serve to bolster his reputation among his peers and fans and not interfere with his work in any way.

    I wasn’t aware that calling someone a “landlord/tenant judge” is the same as calling them the N-word. That whole proposition is patently absurd.

    Maybe, maybe not. I’m not current enough on coded language to say. But just out of curiosity, you surely don’t deny the existence of dog-whistle politics?

    But, it brings up a larger point: be careful what you wish for. If free speech protections keep getting taken away, it is only a matter of time before someone sues you for having the temerity to voice your opinion…

    Well then, I guess it’s a good thing I don’t wish for that.

  1834. #1836 Chris O'Neill
    February 19, 2016

    Dan: “it is discovered via leaked emails that said scientist tried to “hide the warming” and used a “nature trick.”

    Would scientists, journalists, etc. be committing libel for stating their opinion the peer-reviewed study was fraudulent?”

    Of course, none of Mann’s papers were ever described in any leaked email as hiding anything.

    “Mann’s case. It is the same thing”

    You’re confusing Mann’s papers with something else. You’re making shit up again Dan. Over and over again.

  1835. #1837 Chris O'Neill
    February 19, 2016

    Dan: “If Steyn is as wrong as all of you say, Steyn will come across as a fool.”

    Yes, a maliciously reckless fool.

  1836. #1838 Dan
    February 19, 2016

    O.A.: I do deny the existence of “dog-whistle” coded politics. Maybe because I am not racist, I cannot hear racist dog whistles. And, I am glad you don’t wish for the erosion of free speech rights. By extension, I presume you hope Mann’s case fails because virtually every First Amendment expert (not to mention most media outlets) agree that a Mann victory would be the biggest setback for free speech in decades.

    I don’t know what “pus filled bubo” is; you still didn’t answer the question. Did Steyn truly believe his “pus filled bubolous” comments about Mann? If not, what evidence do you have that he did not honestly believe them? (I could be like BBD, and demand, over and over, answer to my questions above all else. But I won’t. If you don’t want to answer, fine. No big deal. I will just presume you can’t).

    Also, when I said the “lies you guys” referenced, I was referring to “you” in the plural, not singular. So, I wasn’t specifically referring to you.

    Chris Oneill, whether or not Mann’s “papers” were described as hiding something, his signature finding, i.e., that there has been significant warming in the 20th century, was brought into question by the leaked emails. Specifically, the phrases “hide the decline” and “Mike’s Nature Trick” made that point.

    Also, Mann’s “papers” as in the hockey-stick graph, was called dishonest (or deceitful, or whatever word you want to use) by at least some scientists, such as Dr. Curry. You are engaging in the old BBD trick, by focusing on the literal phrasing of “papers” instead of focusing on the everyday meaning of the question.

    But, so there is no confusion, I will rephrase to make you happy.

    Would a journalist commit libel if he points out that the leaked emails suggest that certain climate scientists attempted to “hide the decline” and used “nature tricks” when concluding significant warming occurred in the 20th Century?

    IF your answer is no, then you have to acknowledge, by extension, that Steyn did not libel Mann because that is all he said, albeit in more colorful language.

    And, to address one more previous point by O.A. re: objective journalism (which I do happen to know something about): you forget, O.A., that there are two types of journalists. Objective, “hard-news” journalists (such as my father) and “opinion” journalists, such as editorial page editors, columnists, etc. Take Fox News. Bret Baier and Shep Smith would be classic “hard news” journalists.

    Oreilly, Hannity, etc., would be the opinion journalists. Or, at any newspaper, the front page would have the hard news, objective section, and the editorial page would have the opinion journalism, where different viewpoints are given.

    Steyn has never held himself out to be an objective journalist. He has always practiced his craft in the realm of opinion, or editorial, journalism (which is why his articles always appear in the editorial section).

  1837. #1839 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 19, 2016

    O.A.: I do deny the existence of “dog-whistle” coded politics. Maybe because I am not racist, I cannot hear racist dog whistles.

    Bull. We’re talking about similar kinds of figures of speech to euphemisms and double-entendres. You are being disingenuous.

    …setback for free speech…

    I am not convinced of that. I think reaction may have been hasty. As you know, I prefer to see the outcome of the trial– or at least discovery.

    I don’t know what “pus filled bubo” is; you still didn’t answer the question. Did Steyn truly believe his “pus filled bubolous” comments about Mann? If not, what evidence do you have that he did not honestly believe them?

    You could look it up, or make an educated guess by association with ‘bubonic’ (although i have to admit that ‘bubolous’ is amusing). Again I’m looking for outcomes here. If it’s fair for you to be suspicious, then the same should hold for me. 

    Also, when I said the “lies you guys” referenced, I was referring to “you” in the plural, not singular. So, I wasn’t specifically referring to you.

    Er, ok…

    [noise from Richelieu]… Would a journalist commit libel if he points out that the leaked emails suggest that certain climate scientists attempted to “hide the decline” and used “nature tricks” when concluding significant warming occurred in the 20th Century?

    At the very least, that journalist would be committing incompetence, which is why journalists are moving away from false balance, Richelieu.

    Steyn has never held himself out to be an objective journalist. He has always practiced his craft in the realm of opinion, or editorial, journalism (which is why his articles always appear in the editorial section).

    I am aware. This is one of the reasons I am interested in seeing this case play out. I think we are living in a different environment than even possibly when you were young. Lines are blurring in practice if not in name, between news, politics, (potentially malicious) propaganda, and entertainment. And btw, Fox News is not an organization I’d hold up as exemplary.

    Perhaps even more to the point, is the attack on the line surrounding the  system that scientists use to communicate. Wise policy makers and scientists maintain it as a structured firewall against the vicissitudes of politics and other forms of insanity. It also more or less marks the boundary where professional scientists work. You have made it pretty clear that you are not interested in how this world works, why it works the way it does, and what in fact might be damaging to it or to the people trying to work there.

    If you knew anything about scientists plus about the crappy political environment that climate scientists are confronted with, you’d know that Mann has done a rather brave and necessary thing by speaking in the popular arena. As near as I can see, he has done a masterful job of maintaining the line between science and his opinions on policy while enduring a constant barrage of mean mob stupidity, Richelieu.

    So Dan, at least as far as I’m concerned and despite your hysterical alarmist fears, this makes the case of interest to the maintenance of the work (an yes, the free speech) of scientists; and I’m hoping that in the end the system will provide more light on the subject and not more smoke.

  1838. #1840 Chris O'Neill
    February 19, 2016

    Dan: “his signature finding, i.e., that there has been significant warming in the 20th century”

    No Dan, that was not Mann’s signature finding. The instruments already told us there had been significant warming in the 20th century.

    “the phrases “hide the decline” made that point.”

    How does “hide the decline” make that point when it had nothing to do with Mann’s papers? Mann’s papers hid nothing about the reconstruction result. The reconstruction result is in the data files if you have trouble reading any of the graphs anywhere.

    How does “Mike’s Nature Trick” make that point when it was just someone’s impression and absolutely nothing to do with Mann hiding anything which he didn’t do?

    “Mann’s “papers” as in the hockey-stick graph, was called dishonest (or deceitful, or whatever word you want to use) by at least some scientists, such as Dr. Curry”

    Just because one person libels Mann doesn’t mean everyone becomes entitled to.

    “You are engaging in the old BBD trick, by focusing on the literal phrasing of “papers” instead of focusing on the everyday meaning of the question.”

    What are you talking about?

    “Would a journalist commit libel if he points out that the leaked emails suggest that certain climate scientists attempted to “hide the decline” and used “nature tricks” when concluding significant warming occurred in the 20th Century?”

    Could be (quite likely imho).

    “objective journalism (which I do happen to know something about)”

    You could have fooled us.

  1839. #1841 Dan
    February 22, 2016

    Chris: You have just acknowledged you are nothing more then a hack my admitting that a journalist would, “quite likely, in your opinion” commit libel by pointing out some scientists used tricks to try and hide temperature decline in the late 20th century. We know so, because the researchers at East Anglia U admitted as much in their emails (and the likes of BBD, I think, became hysterical by claiming they were illegally gained, while ignoring content).

    The bottom line: You care more about your preferred outcome, climate change, then the truth. In fact, your bias, at least by that statement, is to such an extent that you are willing to tolerate people who agree with you lying, being deceitful, etc. (which is kind of ironic when you think about it)

    OA: I am not being disingenuous when I talk about dog-whistles: to call someone racist is significant. More then an inkling is needed (and it is ironic that someone, like Greg, who is so concerned about Mann being libeled, is quick to libel Steyn as a racist because he calls a judge a landlord tenant judge, huh?)

    As for you disagreeing with a Mann victory being a tremendous setback for the First Amendment, that is your right, of course. You can have any opinion you like. I would note that virtually every single legal scholar disagrees with you, and I would further note the fact that major media outlets (of which I have more then a passing familiarity, again, being that my father was the managing editor of one of the world’s largest for the past half-decade) aren’t in the business of joining lawsuits and incurring legal fees unless they have a very good reason. In this case, all organizations, through their attorneys, have stated the reason they joined is the threat Mann’s suit poses to the First Amendment.

    If that isn’t enough for you, the ACLU, certainly no fan of Steyn’s on the issues, I would presume, has also filed an Amicus Brief on Steyn’s behalf because the ACLU likewise recognizes that Mann’s lawsuit is nothing more than an abuse of our legal system and an attempt to impinge on Steyn’s right to freedom of thought, speech, etc. (which, incidentally, is why I have the utmost respect for the ACLU, even if I don’t always agree with them. They put principle before politics, and defend the rights of all, not just those they agree with. I wonder if any of you have the strength of character to do same. And, yes, I would certainly defend Mann’s right to free speech if someone tried to silence him)

  1840. #1842 Obstreperous Applesauce
    February 22, 2016

    I’m aware.

    I’m also inclined to agree with RickA and others that this tread is played out. I’m sure the subject will come up in one form or another elsewhere and so may catch it on the flip side.
    ——–

  1841. #1843 StevoR
    Adelaide Hills, South Australia
    February 23, 2016

    Yegods! This thread is still going!?

  1842. #1844 Chris O'Neill
    February 23, 2016

    “You have just acknowledged you are nothing more then a hack”

    I have done nothing of the sort Dan.

    What you carelessly ignore is that the “certain climate scientists attempting to “hide the decline”” do NOT include one Michael Mann. NO climate scientist said Mann hid any decline in ANY of his papers. How long will it take you to understand that fact? Any journalist who claims the emails said Mann was hiding something is libelling Mann.

    “The bottom line: You care more about your preferred outcome then the truth.”

    What a shameless hypocrite you are Dan.

  1843. #1845 Dan
    February 24, 2016

    Chris: You fail to realize that certain climate scientists do, indeed, accuse Mann of dishonest. If you don’t believe me, ask Dr. Judith Curry. And, O.A., I agree that this thread is worn out…

    But, being that certain posters feel the need to call me a shameless hypocrite for merely quoting others, I feel like I should at least respond.

  1844. #1846 Chris O'Neill
    February 25, 2016

    No Dan. YOU fail to realise
    that NO climate scientist said Mann hid any decline in ANY of his papers. Your attempt to hide this by changing the subject is simply pathetic.

    A description of the silly shenanigans associated with accusing climate scientists of claiming Mann “hid the decline” is here, including comments from Richard Muller before he became a global warming denialist apostate.

    for “merely” quoting others

    No Dan. You were “merely” quoting yourself, not others.

    Even if you were “merely” quoting others, that wouldn’t mean you’re not a hypocrite.

  1845. #1847 Bernard J.
    February 26, 2016

    I see that the confusion between an adverb and a conjuction is still too much for some, even after the error has been repeatedly pointed out.

    Frankly, if someone can’t grok the level of grammar that is accessible to an early primary school kid, I have difficulty in accepting anything requiring abstract analysis from said semi-illiterate. Nota bene, the ability to pursuade people to acceptance of a particular legal argument does not constitute evidence of analytic erudition; it is simply an indication of im/a-morality and a capacity for glib manipulation.

  1846. #1848 Dan
    March 21, 2016

    Chris: it is a fact that Dr. Curry said Dr. Mann’s methods were “dishonest (or some synonym thereof),” even if not rising to the level of academic fraud. The article, which I have linked to many times, was about the truthfulness of Mann’s work. Also, see the testimony before the Senate Space and Science sub-committee.

    There is ample scientific evidence for Steyn to base his opinion (assuming such evidence is necessary, which it is not; the first amendment applies even to non-scientists).

    But, that is not the reason for this post. In light of the recent Hulk Hogan/Gawker verdict, I thought it would be interesting to see what implications, if any, it might have on this case (such that a trial court verdict can affect another case in a different jurisdiction).

    That being said, I think it is a good example of the intricacy of these cases, and the need to analyze the different “prongs.” Hogan’s case dealt with the “public person” prong, and how far does that extend re: privacy. The truthfulness, or Gawker’s belief in the truthfulness, of the tape was not at issue. Thus, there are two totally different issues at stake in each case.

    I do think this this case exemplifies where the protection lies for public persons, which applies more to “how” the story is reported, not “if” the story is newsworthy. I don’t think anyone would question that Hulk Hogan cheating on his wife is newsworthy (I can’t remember if this caused the divorce, or if they were divorced), as would having a threesome with his friend and friend’s wife.

    But, Gawker should have merely reported the story without disclosing the video. At the very least, it should have contacted Hogan first, tell him they had the tape, and if a denial is issued they will be forced to publish it.

    I think most people would agree, also, that public persons have a right not to have intimate moments published without their permission. As one legal expert said re: the effect of this case on the media: it might be bad for sex tapes, but it won’t be bad for the media.

    Sounds about right.

  1847. #1849 Desertphile
    March 21, 2016

    I’m a lawyer really I am Dan: “There is ample scientific evidence for Steyn to base his opinion….”

    No one gives a bloody anal shit what Steyn’s OPINIONS are. The problem is Steyn’s libel and defamation. Remember?

  1848. #1850 Narad
    March 21, 2016

    In light of the recent Hulk Hogan/Gawker verdict, I thought it would be interesting to see what implications, if any, it might have on this case (such that a trial court verdict can affect another case in a different jurisdiction).

    You’re saying, with a straight face, that a jury verdict in Pinellas County Circuit Court – which stands an excellent chance of being overturned on appeal – based on invasion of privacy has some plausible bearing on a defamation suit in D.C. Superior Court?

    If that isn’t enough for you, the ACLU, certainly no fan of Steyn’s on the issues, I would presume, has also filed an Amicus Brief on Steyn’s behalf

    Are you dumb, dishonest, or both? No, they didn’t. All the amici briefs are in the anti-SLAPP appeal, to which Steyn is not a party.

    Note also that I’m unlikely to return, as a comment thread with 1800+ posts causes my browser to thrash wildly.

  1849. #1851 Desertphile
    March 21, 2016

    Narad: You’re saying, with a straight face, that a jury verdict in Pinellas County Circuit Court – which stands an excellent chance of being overturned on appeal – based on invasion of privacy has some plausible bearing on a defamation suit in D.C. Superior Court?

    Yeah. He claimed several times that he is a lawyer. It makes me wonder if there are any qualifications required to be a lawyer in Nevada; can someone learning-impaired be a lawyer?

  1850. #1852 RickA
    March 21, 2016

    Desertphile #1849:

    Perhaps you forgot – but opinions cannot be libel – by definition.

    So Steyn’s opinions do matter.

  1851. #1853 Desertphile
    March 21, 2016

    Ricka: Desertphile #1849: Perhaps you forgot – but opinions cannot be libel – by definition. So Steyn’s opinions do matter.

    No; Steyn’s opinions have nothing at all to do with this law suit— a fact that has been explained to you, literally, several hundred times. No one gives a shit about Steyn’s opinions.

  1852. #1854 Dan
    March 21, 2016

    Desertphile: See RickA’s response. The pro-Mann crowd is funny; first, Steyn’s opinions are libel because they weren’t backed up by a climate scientist (which they were, and even if not, it wasn’t necessary); now, his statements aren’t even opinions (not sure how else to classify a blog post by an opinion journalist…)

    Narad, #1850, calm down. I clearly mentioned in my post that it is unlikely a trial verdict in a different jurisdiction will have any impact on a pending case in another jurisdiction, unless, of course, Hogan’s case goes to the Supreme Court. Even then, because the issues are different, it still wouldn’t have much impact.

    I brought the Hogan case up because, as most people here know, I am a free-speech absolutist who believes that a free society necessarily requires broad free speech and free press rights, particularly regarding public persons. These rights include the right to be wrong, as long as said wrongness was honestly believed, and, yes, the right to report on the private lives of those in the pubic eye.

    BUT, there are some limitations, and this case provides a good example of one of those rare circumstances in which I agree freedom of speech should be limited.

    I also think it is a good example of a case the manner in which the statements were made transformed what would have otherwise been protected speech into unprotected speech. As stated in my original post, if Gawker simply stated the facts, without running the tape, they are probably good to go.

    But publishing a video of a public person while involved in intimate acts is going to far. In other words, the “public person” doctrine does not extend to the bedroom.

    Narad, you might not know this, but attorneys often discuss significant cases that full under the same general category, even if the issues are different. Mann/Steyn and Hogan/Gawker are two significant free speech cases currently pending this country. As such, they are interesting to discuss/compare, etc, in an academic sense.

  1853. #1855 Dan
    March 21, 2016

    Narad: I am neither dumb nor dishonest. Just a lawyer who knows what I am talking about. Steyn also filed an amicus brief to the Anti-Slapp appeal.

    And, National Review is a defendant under a theory of respondeat superior and its liability is derivative’s to Steyn’s (i.e., if Steyn is not liable, NR isn’t liable). they are thus joined at the hip, and a brief filed on behalf of NR is a brief in support of Steyn.

    Also, the current appeal is a rather specific issue. Steyn did not waive his right to appeal the trial court’s denial of the anti-slapp motion. The appeal deals with whether Defendants can appeal the denial now via an interlocutory order, of if the appeal must wait until after trial. If the Court rules that it can be appealed now, Steyn still has every right to assert that defense.

    Steyn didn’t want to “appeal an apeal” and figured he would take Mann at his word and go to trial. If the jury finds in Mann’s favor, he could then appeal the Anti-Slapp issue.

    NR (or most likely their libel insurance carrier) didn’t want to incur the cost of going to trial if it doesn’t have to, and wants to pursue this issue via appeal now. Strategically, there are good reasons for either decision.

    If the court rules the appeal can go forward, Steyn can join (he didn’t waive it). The ACLU, NYT, et al, amici briefs argue the same position as Steyn argues (anti slapp does apply), and they were filed on behalf of Defendants. Whether the appeal is heard now or later (if necessary) doesn’t change that.

    Now go run and hide….

  1854. #1856 RickA
    United States
    March 21, 2016

    Desertphile #1853:

    One more time.

    If Steyn’s writings are found to be opinion, than he will win.

    No opinion can be libel or defamation.

    That is the law.

    Only statements of fact can be libel or defamation – and then only if they are not true.

    The court has not decided yet if what Steyn wrote is opinion or statement of fact.

    This has yet to be decided.

    Perhaps one day you will get this.

    Perhaps not.

  1855. #1857 Desertphile
    March 21, 2016

    RickA: “One more time. If Steyn’s writings are found to be opinion, than he will win.”

    Yet again: Steyn’s assertions have already been judged, twice, to be statements of fact— not opinions. How is it possible you forgot that fact?

  1856. #1858 Brainstorms
    March 21, 2016

    RickA “forgets” anything that doesn’t serve his ideology.

    For RickA slavishly serves his ideology. He is an acolyte.

    RickA serves faithfully, even when it fails to dawn on him that his ideology NEVER serves him.

    RickA is blind. And he doesn’t realize that, either.

  1857. #1859 Chris O'Neill
    March 22, 2016

    Why do you keep thrashing around with non-sequiturs Dan?

    NO climate scientist said Mann hid any decline in ANY of his papers.

    Your claim that Mann’s “signature” finding is that there has been significant warming in the 20th century is unmitigated garbage. Mann did not “find” 20th century temperature measurements. He got them from someone else like anyone could.

    Your claim that this supposed “signature” finding was brought into question by the leaked emails is unmitigated garbage, not least because there is no such “signature” finding.

    Your claim that the phrases “hide the decline” and “Mike’s Nature Trick” bring into question this supposed “signature” finding is unmitigated garbage, not least because there is no such “signature” finding.

    For your sake, you really should correct your world view Dan.

  1858. #1860 Desertphile
    March 23, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: NO climate scientist said Mann hid any decline in ANY of his papers.

    *CRICKETS*

  1859. #1861 RickA
    March 22, 2016

    Brainstorms #1858:

    It is funny how anyone who disagrees with you is blind.

    At some point, Steyn will either win or lose.

    Once we see that decision and evaluate why Steyn wins or loses – than we will see who was blind.

    My legal analysis is that Steyn will win – and that is all I am pointing out on this thread.

    You – not so much analysis – just name calling, assertion and anger that anybody could disagree with your worldview.

  1860. #1862 Brainstorms
    March 22, 2016

    RickA, it has nothing to do with disagreeing with me. It has everything to do with your dishonest attempts at argumentation.

    I think that goes with being a lawyer, since they are trained “to win”, to “to see that justice is served”. Winning consequently has nothing to do with being honest.

    You only care to “win” with your position. The rest of us want to see Justice served.

  1861. #1863 Kevin O'Neill
    Franklin, WI USA
    March 22, 2016

    Rick A – “merely labeling a statement as your “opinion” does not make it so. Courts look at whether a reasonable reader or listener could understand the statement as asserting a statement of verifiable fact. (A verifiable fact is one capable of being proven true or false.)”

    So when you say opinion can’t be libel – you are conflating (intentionally) two different legal ideas. The fact one writes an ‘opinion’ column does *NOT* protect one from libel. Your protestations to the contrary mark you as either mistaken or intentionally misleading. Take your pick: Neither is very complimentary.

    If you *are* a lawyer, then ask for some tuition fees back.

  1862. #1864 RickA
    United States
    March 22, 2016

    Kevin #1862:

    I have made it abundantly clear in this thread that the Court has not yet ruled on whether Steyn’s opinion column is legally considered opinion or not.

    Desertphile is wrong – this issue has not been ruled on yet. He just doesn’t understand the law.

    So I agree that the Court will, in the future, rule on whether Steyn’s column is legally protected opinion or a statement of fact.

    I have also made it clear that it is my opinion that the Court will rule Steyn’s writing is legally protected opinion – but that is my prediction of what the court WILL rule – not a statement of what the court has already done.

    Of course, the thread is long – but if you search for RickA and read my comments in this thread, I think you see I have been consistent and clear about both what the legal issues are, and my opinion on what the court will rule on those legal issues.

  1863. #1865 Chris O'Neill
    March 22, 2016

    RickA: “My legal analysis is..”

    “it is my opinion that..”

    Yes, we’re aware that your so-called “analysis” is just your opinion.

  1864. #1866 Desertphile
    March 23, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: Yes, we’re aware that your so-called “analysis” is just your opinion.

    … which is the exact opposite of the opinions of the judges in the law suit. Gosh, I wonder what Britney Spears thinks about the law suit.

  1865. #1867 Desertphile
    March 23, 2016

    Ricka: “It is funny how anyone who disagrees with you is blind.”

    You mean “disagrees with observed reality.” You and “Hey I’m A Lawyer Really I Am!” constantly write falsehoods that are contrary to demonstrable facts, and you do it even after being corrected scores of times. If I behaved the way you do I would be utterly terrified, and I would seek professional care.

  1866. #1868 Dan
    March 28, 2016

    RickA: It really is an exercise in futility trying to get posters here to even consider another possibility. Take Kevin Oneill’s post about opinions. The link that he, himself, provided clearly states (before the section he quotes from) that one cannot be commit libel when offering opinion statements. It directly answers that question as “No.”

    Now, he is correct when he says that saying a statement is an opinion doesn’t make it one. But the whole point is that the statement is no longer an opinion, not that opinions are now subject to libel allegations.

    What is even funnier is the inability to comprehend opinion, and a refusal to recognize that Steyn can opine Mann was fraudulent. For example, see the testimony of Prof. Christy summarized here:
    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/05/michael-mann-is-a-liar-and-a-cheat-heres-why.php

    I won’t go into it, because people can read it, but basically it shows how data was changed. Now, some people will label that as dishonest or, dare I say, fraudulent. Others will say it is no big deal.

    Fine, great. That is what debate is all about. But saying that Mann can objectively be proven to not be a fraud is silly. Fact statements apply to specific events, not generalizations.

    Steyn says Mann is a fraud, and his methods are dishonest. That is very different that a fact that can be verified (i.e., Mr. X cheated on his wife, when X has photos, airline tickets, dinner receipts, etc., showing he was with his wife when the act allegedly occurred). That would be libel.

    This situation is akin to “Mr. X is a cheater because he went out to dinner with someone other then his wife.” The disagreement deals with the definition of cheating. Mr. X can admit that, and say he doesn’t consider it cheating. The other person can say he does consider it cheating.

    Here, Mann used certain techniques, which no one denies (see link above). Mann can, rightly, say there is nothing dishonest about it. Others can, rightly, say they reasonably disagree, and that it actually is dishonest.

    Ultimately, people can make up their own minds. That is the beauty of living in a free society. But it is just silly to say Mann can objectively be proven to not be dishonest (and spare me the whole investigation that “cleared him. OJ was acquitted, and people still opined he killed his ex. The same is true with the HRC email situation).

  1867. #1869 Desertphile
    March 28, 2016

    Dan: “It really is an exercise in futility trying to get posters here to even consider another possibility”

    Yeah, evidence does that to normal people.

  1868. #1870 Dan
    March 28, 2016

    The funny thing, RickA, is all along I have acknowledged I am not a libel attorney, and haven’t practiced in this area in years (and even then, it was limited). I have said, repeatedly, DON’T take my word for it; take Prof. Garber’s (among others) word for it that Mann’s case is difficult/borderline impossible.

    I have asked, over and over again, for someone to link to a legal resource (treatise, law review article, blog post by con law professor) that disagrees with Garber’s analysis.

    No one has (if someone did, and I missed, please re-link. I would love to look at it). Instead, we are treated to all this mumbo-jumbo about how Mann can “prove” he wasn’t dishonest, while they don’t recognize that people can opine the methods he used were in fact dishonest.

    How can you “prove” Steyn (or Christy, etc) don’t believe Mann’s techniques are dishonest? You can say no one in the scientific community thinks they are, but Steyn is allowed to have his own opinions, even if not supported by the community.

    Lastly, I love how some (desertphile) still refuses to accept that, yes, I am a practicing attorney despite the fact that I have publicly identified myself.

  1869. #1871 dean
    United States
    March 28, 2016

    Here, Mann used certain techniques, which no one denies (see link above). Mann can, rightly, say there is nothing dishonest about it. Others can, rightly, say they reasonably disagree, and that it actually is dishonest.

    Are you really stupid enough not to know that it is possible to tell whether a particular method of statistical analysis is or is not proper for a certain situation? That’s certainly the way you come off.

  1870. #1872 Dan
    March 28, 2016

    Dean: Please see Professor’s Garber’s article, wherein he states (paraphrasing) “you can say anything you want about a public person if you are stupid enough to believe it.”

    What I believe doesn’t matter, but to answer your question, if Steyn is that stupid to believe it, he is free to say it.

    Again, if you have any legal authority (law review articles, treatises, blog posts by law professors, etc.) that dispute the legal authority I provided, please link to same. Until then, you are simply stating what you wish the law to be (which is fine), not what the law actually is.

  1871. #1873 Desertphile
    March 28, 2016

    Dan: “What I believe doesn’t matter, but to answer your question, if Steyn is that stupid to believe it, he is free to say it. “

    No one gives a shit about what Steyn believes; no one gives a shit about what Steyn’s opinions are. The issue is libel: remember?

  1872. #1874 Chris O'Neill
    March 29, 2016

    if you are stupid enough

    Steyn is going to do real well in court saying “I’m a stupid person”.

    Yeah real well.

  1873. #1875 Dan
    March 28, 2016

    Dean, or Desertphile: Did you read the link I posted? Because if you did, you would know that no-one disputes the graph’s contained in the IPCC’s Third Assessment that purport to show a steep increase in 20th century temps stops at around 1961. If you look at the entire, non-cropped graph, you will see there is a steep decline in temperatures from 1961 – 2000, as evidenced by the green line.

    Yet, the authors, Mann included, conveniently submitted a cropped graph in which the part showing a steep decline is missing.

    YOU may think that is fine and dandy. Great. Others may think it is…what is the word, dishonest, or, or, or, dare I say, fraudulent. In a free society, journalist, bloggers, citizens are free to offer their opinions about such matters as the IPCC findings, and their foundation for same.

    You may think OJ Simpson was innocent of killing his wife (and, indeed, legally, it was not proven beyond a reasonable doubt to the jurors). Simultaneously, someone else, say a journalist who watched the entire trial, could say nonsense; of course he is guilty and the government met its burden.

    Welcome to a country that cherishes free speech. If you are looking for a society that suppresses differing views, I hear Cuba has recently re-opened to U.S. citizens.

  1874. #1876 Dan
    March 28, 2016

    Btw, my last post is what is known, collegially in the legal world, as “Check-Mate.”

    Thanks for coming out, guys. Hopefully you can deal with the stress of living in a free society in which people can post views about public figures, their work/research, even their private lives.

  1875. #1877 Chris O'Neill
    March 29, 2016

    if you have any legal authority (law review articles, treatises, blog posts by law professors, etc.) that dispute the legal authority I provided, please link to same.

    Braindead Dan seems to keep missing it when I write the following link over and over again:

    http://legal-planet.org/2014/08/18/why-michael-manns-defamation-suit-against-climate-denialists-is-the-right-move/

  1876. #1878 Desertphile
    March 29, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: Braindead Dan seems to keep missing it when I write the following link over and over again:

    I’m A Real Lawyer Really I Am Dan appears to have a problem with learning, or memory recall, or memory retention.

  1877. #1879 dean
    March 29, 2016

    dan, your post implied that there was no way to determine whether a particular analysis was or was not the correct one, which is blatantly false. Believing someone used an incorrect method doesn’t make it so. My question was whether you were stupid enough to think that wasn’t the case. Apparently you are.

    “Btw, my last post is what is known, collegially in the legal world, as “Check-Mate.””

    Apparently the legal world has no standards.

  1878. #1880 Dan
    March 29, 2016

    Chris: This thread is long. I specifically said in my last post if someone posted in article, and I missed, to please re-link. I have read that post, and, candidly, the author fails to make a compelling case.

    First, he is not a first amendment scholar. He teaches “environmental law” and clearly has ties to the global warming movement. In fact, he admits the biggest reason for his support is that a Mann victory “would send a message” to climate change opponents. Hardly compelling free speech analysis.

    Also, the author’s silence on any issues involving the first amendment is deafening. He does not discuss, for example, the public person standard, or cite to any relevant case law. He merely states, with no authority, that courts “should” be able to challenge the foundation of those who oppose the majority position regarding scientific issues. This flies in the face of well-known jurisprudence in which courts do not decide scientific issues.

    The only analysis that remotely comes close to a first-amendment analysis is that Steyn’s blog went beyond mere name-calling. I agree. But, what law does he have holding that speech “beyond name calling” regarding a public figure is not entitled the same level of first amendment protection.

    The author is certainly entitled to his opinion, and his is a legal scholar, albeit not a free speech scholar. I would think most people, especially those with legal training, would immediately recognize his article is based on his preferred political position (send a message to those that disagree) as opposed to a legal analysis. Again, if he has legal analysis to support his position, he should have included it.

    Also, i would not that Prof. Garber is also a climate-change proponent, and believes in man made change. His analysis was legal, not political. The same cannot be said for the author Chris linked to

    But, Chris, I must give you credit. At least now you are engaging in substantive debate regarding the legal issues, even if I think the authority you offer in support is weak. At least we can have a reasonable, intelligent discussion instead of resorting to name calling like most other posters do.

  1879. #1881 Dan
    March 29, 2016

    Dean, the legal world has plenty of standards. It is called the bar exam, and when I took it the pass rate was under 50%(it is now close to 70%, because the kids these days whine when they can’t pass a simple exam that I hardly studied for, but I digress).

    And, Mann’s honesty is a matter of opinion. Again, some people can rightly think Mann was dishonest (as well as the other IPCC Third Report authors) for including a cropped graph that conveniently excludes a steep decline in temperature. Others, like you, might think it is now big deal.

    Honesty, like many legal issues, is a gray area. Another example is applying the facts of Hillary’s emails to the law. Some people think she absolutely broke the law; some don’t, but it is absolutely not libelous to call her a criminal, if you think her conduct broke the relevant law.

    In Mann’s case, applying the term “dishonest” or “fraud” to this set of facts can lead to different conclusions. Steyn is absolutely free to offer is.

    Also, regarding the post Chris linked to, I would add that the author revealed his ignorance regarding the First Amendment. He cites the 97% figure (which has its own critics, based on the sample size).

    What the author doesn’t get is the First Amendment was designed to protect unpopular speech, not popular speech. The whole point is to make sure the 3% is entitled to present their views. It is needed to protect the majority-supported speech.

    Also, the fact that he wants to send a message to those who disagree with him is “Goebell-esque” (sp?). Free societies don’t “send messages” to those with differing views. We engage in free debate. And, his own example of the Ryan budget is a great example. What if people who criticized his budget, in strong terms, were all of the sudden hauled into court.

    Riddle me this: Why are climate-change advocates so afraid of free speech? Why is Mann so obsessed with some Canadian born opinion journalist whose background is a theater critic?

  1880. #1882 Dan
    March 29, 2016

    Desertphile: Or, ,maybe, just maybe, I am a busy practicioner who hasn’t visited this site in a while and didn’t have time to go through all the posts. I don’t know, I thought the fact that I admitted as much in my post would be enough to clue you in. Guess not.

    Wish I could sit around a collect government checks all day, and immediately respond to blog posts. Unfortunately, I have hours to bill…

  1881. #1883 RickA
    United States
    March 29, 2016

    Dan:

    Frankly, I don’t see much hope of non-lawyer readers here understanding the difference in standard between a motion to dismiss and the standard on a summary judgment motion until the court writes a summary judgment opinion for all to read.

    It is pretty subtle stuff.

    Our comments will make more sense to the readers here after a summary judgment decision, but only in hindsight, looking back with the summary judgment decision read and digested.

    When the readers here see the Court engage in an analysis of whether Steyn’s writings are an opinion or a statement of fact, and if a statement of fact is found, if it is true or false, and if false, analysis about whether the statement was made with malice – then and only then will the non-lawyers here understand that the court has not yet ruled on these issues.

    I am perfectly happy to wait and will see you back here in a year or so, after the appeal and after a summary judgment decision (if the case is not dismissed on appeal).

    TTFN.

  1882. #1884 Dan
    March 29, 2016

    RickA: I agree, it is pretty subtle, especially for non-lawyers. Since I spend most of my waking hours with other attorneys (as I am sure you do), it is easy to take for granted the difference between dismissing a case on 12(b)(6) grounds for failure to state a claim, and dismissal on summary judgment grounds.

    What is most surprising to me, however, is the personal involvement some posters have in Mann’s case. It seems as if they think if Steyn wins, Mann will have been legally adjudicated a fraud. That is absolutely not true. If Steyn wins, the only legal adjudication is that Steyn’s opinion that Mann hockey stick is fraudulent is protected free speech (which is why I was shocked to read a professor of law, albeit not a first amendment professor, state that a victory for Mann would be a win for climate change, and a Mann loss would be a setback for climate change. But, that is the problem when you have courts adjudicate science, instead of, you know, scientists). If Mann wins, however, many journalists will think twice about offering controversial opinions about public figures for fear of a lawsuit.

    More importantly, I am shocked that so many people WANT Mann to win. I find it difficult to believe they cannot realize the chilling effect this would have on a variety of issues, both scientific and political. For years, it was a “fact” that cigarettes weren’t bad for you. Heck, King George VI’s doctors told him to smoke to help with his stuttering. Imagine if, when journalists/other citizens, began to suspect the tobacco industry was hiding evidence, they were precluded from saying so via threat of a libel lawsuit.

    Think all of the controversial issues that lead to vigorous debate, including claims that opponents are dishonest. It happens in virtually every area (Krugmann saying the Ryan budget is dishonest, for example), or the Clinton emails. If Mann wins, won’t journalists be more reluctant to say Hillary broke the law (call her a criminal) by not using a secure server. And, by logical extension, won’t it be more difficult to hold the powerful accountable? All because some wussified professor was offended by someone saying his methods were less then honest?

    But, I too am willing to wait. I honestly think, at some point, the Court (or the Supreme Court) will dismiss on Anti-Slapp grounds, as this is clearly the type of speech the statutes are meant to protect.

  1883. #1885 Chris O'Neill
    March 30, 2016

    Dan:

    If you look at the entire, non-cropped graph, you will see there is a steep decline in temperatures from 1961 – 2000, as evidenced by the green line.

    The person being dishonest here is the one claiming that Mann included a cropped graph that excludes a steep decline in temperature. There was no decline in global temperature from 1961-2000, even if there was a decline in a small fraction of the world’s temperature proxies. Mann only ever purported to calculate and show GLOBAL or northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in his various papers and that is exactly what he did.

    Why do you dishonestly claim that Mann crops off “a steep decline in temperature” when there was no steep decline in temperature?

    A decline in a few proxies does not mean there was a steep decline in temperature. We use thermometers to measure global temperature now Dan, have been since 1880, not proxies.

  1884. #1886 Chris O'Neill
    March 30, 2016

    I would add that the author..

    I don’t care what you add Dan just as you don’t care what I add. You were only interested in some legal authority and that’s what I supplied. So you can shut up about it now.

  1885. #1887 Brainstorms
    March 30, 2016

    Why do you dishonestly claim that Mann crops off “a steep decline in temperature” when there was no steep decline in temperature?

    D e s p e r a t i o n . . .

    Lying is the last feeble resort of one who has lost the argument to Truth.

  1886. #1888 Dan
    April 1, 2016

    Chris: Spoken like someone is out of ideas. You did produce an article, but I highly doubt any court would consider that “authority” because 1) the author is not a con law scholar, and 2) more importantly, he does not address First Amendment precedent, standards, etc.

    Nice try, although I did give you credit for at least posting to an academic blog. The fact that that is the best you can do (and that you cannot find an article that actually examines free speech jurisprudence) reinforces my point

    Brainstorms, if there is no decline, then how is the green line in the graph explained? It clearly goes downward around 1965 or so. If that doesn’t represent a decline in temps, what, exactly, does it represent?

    See, this is exactly the problem. “Stats,” of all kinds, are not set in stone. A perfect example is the unemployment rate. Some say “unemployment is down” and point to the 5.0 rate touted by the administration. Other say the U-3 rate is not the true indicator, and that the U-6 rate better reflects true unemployment because it takes into account those that have left the workforce (which explains why in March 215k jobs were created but unemployment rate increased; i.e., more people are trying to get back into labor market).

    Same with temps. There are various methods of measuring temps and forecasting future temps. Heck, some people (usually the pro-climate change) argue that satellite info is not the most accurate way to measure temps. Others disagree.

    I find it so amazing that most of you, who seem educated, can’t figure out the chilling effect on free speech, debate, etc., a Mann victory would have. It would allow, going back to the unemployment rate, politicians to silence those who honestly believe the U6 method is superior to the U3 method.

    This really doesn’t scare any of you? Man, Marxism is alive in this country,

  1887. #1889 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Dan The Imaginary Lawyer: “I find it so amazing that most of you, who seem educated, can’t figure out the chilling effect on free speech, debate, etc., a Mann victory would have”

    Dr Mann’s law suit is in defense of the First Amendment, Shit-for-brains. Libel and slander has the chilling effect against free speech, Shit-for-brains.

  1888. #1890 Dan
    April 1, 2016

    Chris, 1885: That might be the case. I am not going to pretend to know the answer. All I can say is that a noted climate scientist, Prof. Christy, disagrees. Mann may be right, Christy may be right.

    Why not let the debate occur, out in the open, instead of seeking bogus protection from our legal system.

    I will say this: when two sides are debating an issue, and one side tries to silence the other via litigation (or legislation, etc.), most people will start view that side suspiciously. IF you truly believe your position is correct, you would WANT the other side to speak out because everyone will see how wrong they are.

    Only sissies, and those who know they are spewing B.S., try to silence opposing viewpoints

  1889. #1891 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Dan : “I will say this: when two sides are debating an issue, and one side tries to silence the other via litigation….”

    As soon as you see someone do that, be sure to complain, m’kay> Thanks.

  1890. #1892 Marco
    April 1, 2016

    “Why not let the debate occur, out in the open, instead of seeking bogus protection from our legal system. ”

    A debate cannot be had with people who assert, without any shred of evidence, that someone committed fraud.

    I’d love to see Dan accused of fraud without any evidence (*) by, say, the Washington Post, and Dan (and his employer) saying “ah well, that’s just part of the debate and free speech and all that”, while their clientele decides to go elsewhere, because who wants to be represented by frauds?

    (*) they could of course point out that Dan, in this specific thread, repeatedly claimed to have provided sources when in reality he didn’t, and that he provided several sources that did not say what he claimed they said, etc. etc.
    Maybe that was just an error, or perhaps even dishonest, but in Dan’s world that can be equated to fraud, so it may indeed be OK with Dan to be called a fraud, because it is true!

  1891. #1893 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Marco: “I’d love to see Dan accused of fraud without any evidence (*) by, say, the Washington Post, and Dan (and his employer) saying “ah well, that’s just part of the debate and free speech and all that”, while their clientele decides to go elsewhere, because who wants to be represented by frauds?”

    Gosh, I don’t want to see anyone libeled, slandered, or defamed: the truth is enough. Also, Dan appears to lack any and all sense of empathy with victims of abuse, so the lesson would be lost on him anyhow.

  1892. #1894 Brainstorms
    April 1, 2016

    Dan The I Wanna-be Lawyer: “I find it so amazing that most of you, who seem educated, can’t figure out the chilling effect on free speech, debate, etc., a Mann victory would have”

    That’s an amazing statement, given the fact that Steyn has been relentlessly trying to stifle Mann’s free speech rights, debate rights, informing policy makers rights, etc.

    Oh! We just put our finger on it, didn’t we? Dan-the-made-up-lawyer also wants to help suppress Mann’s free speech rights and prevent him from bringing his results to the attention of policy makers by speaking out on the subject as a credible researcher.

    Steyn and the denial-o-sphere clowns are attempting to do this by smearing Mann’s name and reputation. That’s character assassination. What’s the penalty in your state for killing someone?

    Maybe we need laws against this… I know! We can name them “Libel Laws”…

  1893. #1895 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Brainstorms: “That’s an amazing statement, given the fact that Steyn has been relentlessly trying to stifle Mann’s free speech rights, debate rights, informing policy makers rights, etc.”

    That is of course the only reason Dr Mann and his peers have been and are being defamed, attacked, harassed, threatened, and abuse: to silence them and their conclusions. The USA tax-payers were gouged for how much in fossil fuel subsidies in year 2015? About 31 billion dollars? In year 2014 is was 37 billion dollars. There is a hell of a lot of money at risk when scientists produce evidence showing human-caused climate change.

    http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2012/05/SandersSummaryFinal.pdf

  1894. #1896 Chris O'Neill
    April 1, 2016

    I highly doubt

    As I said Dan, I don’t care about your opinion.

  1895. #1897 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: “As I said Dan, I don’t care about your opinion.”

    Certainly it appears Dan’s opinions about USA libel laws are worthless.

  1896. #1898 Chris O'Neill
    April 1, 2016

    Dan:

    Chris, 1885: That might be the case.

    OK. So your claims were lies. At least we all agree you’re a liar.

  1897. #1899 dean
    United States
    April 1, 2016

    Again, some people can rightly think Mann was dishonest (as well as the other IPCC Third Report authors) for including a cropped graph that conveniently excludes a steep decline in temperature.

    You keep repeated all these lies. Is that because you are simply
    a) ignorant of the details? (In which case, you probably shouldn’t be commenting on them)
    b) Making misleading statements because you are accustomed to doing it on the job?
    c) Just a liar by nature?

  1898. #1900 RickA
    United States
    April 1, 2016

    dean #1896:

    You use the word “lies” and “liar” in connection with your quote from Dan.

    I do not see Dan as a liar – but I do think Dan made a mistake and is wrong.

    It was a steep decline in proxy data which was excluded in graphs in TAR, AR4 and the WMO cover. The actual temperature data was used instead of showing the proxy data diving. So Jones email about hiding the decline was talking about hiding a decline in proxy data, not temperature data.

    So Dan made a mistake and was wrong – but being wrong is different than being a liar. I think you know that. Lying has to do with intent.

    However, people throw the word “lie” around when often times they merely mean “wrong”.

    The important point is that if you study the facts, reasonable minds can differ on whether any of the graphs Mann was involved with are “fraudulent”. And that includes the graphs Mann was in charge of as a lead author of TAR and AR4 as well as reviewing Jones WMO graph (which Mann claims authorship of anyway on his CV).

    But we will have to wait to see what happens in this case, both in the appeal and on summary judgment, before we see who was right and who was wrong.

    I wish the court would rule – just so Greg would make a new thread for this fascinating and clearly popular topic (1897 comments so far).

    I had previously said I would see you back here in a year or so – and clearly I was wrong about that (because I am posting now).

    However, I was not lying when I said that (I thought I was done pointing on this thread when I wrote that) – I was just wrong.

    Do you see the difference between being wrong and being a liar?

  1899. #1901 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Ricka: “So Dan made a mistake and was wrong – but being wrong is different than being a liar. I think you know that. Lying has to do with intent.”

    Ah, so you think Dan is learning impaired— not a liar, but a moron. I see.

    Dan has been told the facts about “hide the decline” many scores of times, in a few dozen blog entries here, over the span of more than a year. He still repeats his “error.” You are insisting he isn’t lying— therefore you have concluded what: he’s just an imbecile, or what else is the cause of his behavior?

  1900. #1902 dean
    United States
    April 1, 2016

    Lying has to do with intent.

    I know the difference, and the word I chose is, given his history, the most appropriate choice.

  1901. #1903 Desertphile
    April 1, 2016

    Ricka: Do you see the difference between being wrong and being a liar?

    Do you see any difference between being a liar and being a moron? Dan keeps repeating his “mistake” after he has been corrected by many people, scores of times. Since he knows the truth but keeps repeating falsehoods, does that really not make him a liar? Really?

  1902. #1904 RickA
    United States
    April 1, 2016

    Desertphile:

    I don’t think Dan is a moron or a liar.

    But that is my assessment.

    This hockey stick stuff is complicated and confusing and when you post on a topic over several months, it is easy to forget something, even if you knew it months ago.

    It has happened to me.

    You cannot know if someone is a liar unless you can read minds. You cannot know if someone is a moron unless you administer an IQ test. So reasonable minds can differ over these value judgments – and I differ with your opinion.

    Just like reasonable minds can differ about Mann on the topic of the hockey stick graph.

    Dean:

    The thread numbering changed on me – so when I referred to 1896 it is now 1899.

  1903. #1905 Brainstorms
    April 1, 2016

    RickA lives in an “any which way the wind blows” world…

    “Well, we can’t know this… And we can’t know that… So we shouldn’t do this… And we oughtn’t conclude that… You see [breathlessly] there’s really no basis for knowing.. anything. So the only ‘safe’ thing to do is to do nothing. Just… Just… Wait and see what the wind blows in.”

    I would say that qualifies as solid moron.

    (Well, other than that, more sophisticated lying. But what can you expect from a true-blue sophist?)

  1904. #1906 Chris O'Neill
    April 1, 2016

    Dan:

    the chilling effect

    Sorry, can’t say I’m chilled from someone losing for maliciously claiming someone else is fraudulent.

  1905. #1907 Chris O'Neill
    April 1, 2016

    reasonable minds can differ about Mann on the topic of the hockey stick graph.

    Strawman.

    Reasonable minds do not maliciously accuse someone of fraud just because they “differ”.

  1906. #1908 Chris O'Neill
    April 1, 2016

    I do think Dan made a mistake and is wrong

    We’re still waiting for Dan to apologise for carelessly making a false and incorrect claim to us. I’m not holding my breath.

  1907. #1909 Dan
    April 4, 2016

    Wow, lots of posts up there it is hard to keep track. I have never pretended to be an expert in anything remotely science related, so if I made a mistake, I will certainly acknowledge. If it has to do with the graphs I posted, I simply linked to a post by someone else, and if that person was wrong, I have no problem admitting same.

    I do find a few things interesting. Someone (Brainstorms, I think) said Steyn is seeking to limit Mann’s free speech. How exactly is he doing that? Steyn didn’t file a lawsuit against Mann. He did file a counter claim as a response to Mann’s lawsuit, but filing a counter claim is completely different then initiating a lawsuit (as any real, lawyer, like me, will tell you). On that note, I also find it funny how people still use terms like “fake lawyer,” ect., when I am the only person here with the courage to publically identify myself. I really don’t care if you guys think I am a real lawyer or not, I just find the hypocrisy of questioning my claims after I publicly identify myself while simultaneously refusing to publicly identify myself. in fact, I even publicly identified my father, as one poster above correctly noted that he is Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and, before his recent retirement, the managing editor at the world’s largest, oldest, and most prestigious news organization (no, it is not U.S. based). Just seems odd, not to mention cowardly, to accuse someone of lying about their background, after public identification, while simultaneously hiding anonymously behind a keyboard.

    Desertphile, I don’t know how many times we have to go over this, but your point about how you would like the Washington Post to call me a fraud and see how I, or my employer (presumably my fake employer) respond is well-worn out.

    For the umpteenth time, I.AM.NOT.A.PUBLIC.FIGURE. If I was a public figure, neither I nor my employer would have a problem with being called fraudulent because I was sufficiently public to be in the Washington Post, then I would be sufficiently public to post a rebuttal in that (or an equally prominent) publication.

    Indeed, that is part of the rationale for the public person doctrine in libel law. In addition to protecting free speech and debate, American jurisprudence recognizes, rightly, that public persons are in a position to adequately defend themselves in the court of public opinion. Private citizens, not so much (See, e.g., Dan Rather. Many people called him a fraud based on the National Guard story, and he did not have a viable case against any one of them. What he did have was the ability to respond, publicly, and let people decide for themselves).

    The hypocrisy in the climate change movement is startling. Mann simultaneously sues people for questioning his studies, methods, results, and, yes, his motives, while at the same time accusing those of disagreeing with them as being “Koch-funded,” “big-oil funded,” etc., Isn’t Mann doing the same thing? After all, he is accusing other scientists, journalists, etc., of having bought and paid for opinions.

    How is that any different then calling Mann a fraud? After all, it is dishonest and fraudulent to reach opinions based solely on who is funding you, as opposed to honestly observing the evidence and concluding from same.

    Seriously, how do you, or Mann, justify calling out other scientists “Koch-funded deniers,” while at the same time suing like a little baby when someone dares to criticize his motives?

  1908. #1910 Dan
    April 4, 2016

    Chris, 1907: I agree, reasonably do not call others frauds just because they differ. That is ironic, coming from a Mann-supporter, as his MO is to call anyone who disagrees with him a shill for big-oil.

    And, a reasonable person can conclude, if he honestly believes so, that a scientist cherry-picked evidence, ignored data that did not support his favored conclusions, etc., and that, in so doing, the scientists work is fraudulent.

    Just like Mann is free to say about Drs. Curry, Christie, et. al, or journalists such as Steyn, that their opinions were not honestly obtained, but rather the result of being a #Koch-funded #bigoil #denier.

    There is more evidence that Mann cherry picked his data than Steyn is a shill for big oil. If you have any evidence linking Steyn to big oil, please provide it (as others have provided their evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest. See, e.g., CRU emails, not to mention the fact that Mann exaggerated his CV by falsely claiming to be a Nobel Prize recipient. In many professions, such an egregious misrepresentation would lead to an immediate dismissal and, most likely, professional ruin)

  1909. #1911 Dan
    April 4, 2016

    I think I finally figured out why everyone is calling me a liar, via RickA’s post #1900; i.e., that the graph showed a steep decline in proxy-data rather then temperature. If that is the case, I readily admit I accidentally interchanged temperature and proxy data.

    RickA is absolutely correct, the hockey-stick graph is complex to non-scientists. It was an inadvertent error on my part.

    But, ironically, this kind of proves my point the last few posts, in that climate change proponents are the very first to question the motives of this who disagree. Someone who makes an a mistake is a “liar.” Disagree with man-made climate change? You must be Koch-funded shill for the energy industry. Even the term “denier,” in this context, is synonymous with “fraud” because it implies one doesn’t honestly believe in their opinions.

    So, to make everyone feel better, I apologize for conflating “temperatures” with “proxy-data,” although I would still suggest it was misleading to exclude the decline in proxy date from the graphs in TAR, AR4 and WMO.

    The general public isn’t going to understand the difference. The hockey-stick’s effectiveness was based on a simple to understand graph showing a sharp increase. Cropping out graphs — any graphs — that show a decline, suggest the authors were trying to simplify the message and create the impression the foundation for their position was stronger then it actually is.

  1910. #1912 Dan
    April 4, 2016

    Correction, it was Marco who said he would like to see me accused of being a fraud in the Washington Post (#1892), not Brainstorms. I apologize, and promise I wasn’t “lying.” I was simply reading the thread quickly, and trying to respond to multiple people at once.

    Marco — see above about me not being a public person. But, lets say I handled a case which generates significant publicity locally, and a local columnist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal calls me a fraud.

    Neither me, nor my firm, would mind in the least because they would know that I am know a fraud. If it was generating that much media to qualify me as a public person, I would simply respond at the next press-conference, highlight why said journalist is wrong, and remind him/her that she is not an attorney (most likely, as few journo’s have law degrees), and she therefore lacks sufficient foundation to assess the fraudulent nature, if any, of my actions. This actually happens frequently, particularly in criminal defense cases, as criminal defense attorneys are required to vigorously defend their clients, if they think their client is most likely guilty. Many in the public don’t understand the job of a crim defense lawyer is to hold the government to its burden of proof, and, while it might not seem right to the non-legal mind, us officers of the court recognize our entire system is based on the premise that it is better for a guilty man to go free then an innocent man go to prison, and that we are lucky to live in a society in which the government cannot deprive us of our freedom until meeting the most stringent of burdens.

    In terms of clients going somewhere else, I highly doubt that would happen based on one person’s opinion. Interestingly, can Mann show he actually suffered financial harm (i.e., lost funding, clients, etc.) as a result of Steyn’s comments. I strongly suspect he didn’t.

  1911. #1913 Dan
    April 4, 2016

    Also (sorry for multiple posts, but I only have time to check this forum every couple days), to stay on the hypocrisy/double standard theme, if Mann has viable case against Steyn, then Steyn most certainly has a viable case against the proprietor of this website.

    Surely, accusing someone of being a racist is as bad, if not worse, then calling someone a fraud. Indeed, being branded a racist is probably the worst thing that can happen to someone. Just ask Paula Deen. Or Hulk Hogan. Or Mel Gibson.

    Even worse, Mr. Laden made said accusation based on the silly theory of “racist dog-whistles (apparently forgetting that, much like real dog-whistles, on racists can hear racist dog-whistles). To most sane people, there is nothing remotely racist about referring to a judge as a “landlord-tenant” judge. People of all colors serve as judges in local landlord/tenant (which is usually part of local Justice or Municipal courts). Litigants likewise come in all colors.

    Steyn’s point was the legal field is broad, and competency to be a judge in one venue doesn’t necessarily equate to qualified to judge constitutional and/or appellate issues. It is reasonable to conclude Steyn’s post says landlord/tenant judges aren’t as legally astute as federal appellate judges, which is true, but race has nothing to do with it.

    Anyone who knows anything about Steyn knows his legal philosophy mirrors that of Justice Thomas, not because of race, but because of his views. Likewise, his complaints regarding the judges weren’t based on race in the slightest; rather, he was pointing on the judges were not-competent. If anything, it is racist to assume Steyn’s comments were based on race as opposed to ability.

    But, notice how Steyn handled it. Instead of hauling Mr. Laden into court, he simply linked this blog to his website, and posted a response. Sure enough, Mr. Laden ended up being ridiculed in various media-outlets, blogs, forums, etc., for espousing such idiocy.

    If Steyn’s comments re: Mann are likewise idiotic, the last thing Mann should want is to silence Steyn. Mann should repeat Steyn’s comments as loudly as possible, because stupidity speaks for itself.

    The fact that Mann took the opposite approach suggests maybe, just maybe, Steyn’s comments are that stupid.

  1912. #1914 dean
    United States
    April 4, 2016

    RickA is absolutely correct, the hockey-stick graph is complex to non-scientists.

    You had it explained, and continued to repeat the same crap. That does not speak well for you.
    But then, nothing you’ve said speaks well for you.

  1913. #1915 Desertphile
    April 4, 2016

    DAN The “Lawyer:” RickA is absolutely correct, the hockey-stick graph is complex to non-scientists.”

    dean the sane person: “You had it explained, and continued to repeat the same crap. That does not speak well for you. But then, nothing you’ve said speaks well for you.”

    MBH98 and MBH99 certainly are complex for non-scientists such as myself (I am also uneducated). That is why I spent a day reading Dr Mann’s book on the subject: everything one would ever want to know about the subject is in the book, and anyone with average or higher intelligence will understand the subject after reading the book.

  1914. #1916 Chris O'Neill
    April 5, 2016

    dan:

    if I made a mistake, I will certainly acknowledge

    In what year might that be?

    Mann simultaneously sues people for questioning his studies, methods, results

    You’re a shameless liar Dan. Mann has NOT sued people just for questioning his studies, methods and results. What a pathetic person you are.

  1915. #1917 Chris O'Neill
    April 5, 2016

    dan:

    I agree, reasonably do not call others frauds just because they differ.

    Thank you for implying that Steyn is not a reasonable person since he did something that reasonable people do not do, viz call Mann fraudulent just because he differs.

    others have provided their evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest. See, e.g., CRU emails

    When are you going to stop repeating this unmitigated crap about the emails having evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest? They contain nothing of the sort for Christ’s sake.

  1916. #1918 Chris O'Neill
    April 5, 2016

    dan:

    I readily admit I accidentally interchanged temperature and proxy data.

    So what is your claim now that you admit your claim above is nothing but fiction?

    it was misleading to exclude the decline in proxy date from the graphs

    I guess the IPCC reports should be written as picture books too. Is that how they write law text books Dan? But seriously, proxy divergence and papers considering it are cited in AR4 and AR5. I haven’t checked the other ARs.

    The general public isn’t going to understand the difference.

    Indeed, the general public gets sucked in by climate science denialists who are better liars than Dan and who wilfully misrepresent the data about climate science.

    Cropping out graphs

    Mann did not crop out any graph.

  1917. #1919 Chris O'Neill
    April 5, 2016

    can Mann show he actually suffered financial harm (i.e., lost funding, clients, etc.) as a result of Steyn’s comments. I strongly suspect he didn’t.

    So nothing to be chilled about then.

  1918. #1920 Dan
    April 5, 2016

    Chris: Steyn doesn’t call Mann a fraud simply because they have differing opinions. Steyn called Mann a fraud because he believes — rightly or wrongly — that Mann cherry picked data. In support, he relies heavily on the opinions of Dr. Judith Curry, who posted an article (which I linked to above), stating that Mann’s work, while not rising to the level of academic fraud, was nonetheless dishonest.

    Dean and Desertpedophile, how do you know I actually read, much less comprehended, the explanation. As I said, there were a ton of posts I was going over, and I may have inadvertently glossed over it, or read it quickly without comprehending. But, as noted above, there is other evidence that Mann cherry-picked data. You can disagree with that conclusion. Steyn can agree with it. I really don’t care either way. What I do care about is suppression of free speech.

    Desertpedophile: I am really interested to hear your brilliantly theory on how Mann’s lawsuit protects the first amendment. oh, I get it, you think that the people “harassing” (by which you really mean “disagreeing”) with Mann suppresses his speech. It does no such thing.

    Explain how Steyn, an opinion journalist, authoring an article or blog stating Mann cherry picked data (or is a fraud) infringes Mann’s speech? Is Mann not free to author an article, or blog, disputing Steyn’s conclusions? Can you name one single media outlet that refused to print Mann’s rebuttal, if authored?

    Also, please explain why, if Mann’s suit is in defense of the First Amendment, why numerous major media outlets, and the ACLU, for amici briefs in support of Steyn? Is it your contention that the lawyers for organizations such as NBC, New York Times, etc., have “shit for brains.”

    Lastly, please explain why, if it is actually Steyn suppressing speech, that Steyn and the co-defendants filed an Anti-Slapp motion (the denial of which is currently up on appeal; yes, I know Steyn didn’t appeal it initially, but he filed an amici to the appeal). After all, “SLAPP” means “strategic lawsuit against public participation.” Thus, one seeks relief under “Anti-Slapp” laws when said person (Steyn, and co-defendants) is the target of a lawsuit (filed by Mann) that seeks to limit Steyn’s participation in public debate. In your alternate reality, wouldn’t Mann seek Anti-Slapp relief?

    Lastly, please explain how, exactly, Steyn sought to suppress Mann’s speech. Is it your position that Steyn sued Mann first? Do you believe that, if Mann didn’t file suit, Steyn would have filed suit, seeking millions of dollars in damages from Mann based on something Mann said?

    Your position is non-sense. But, I won’t call you a liar, because I have no proof you actually know your position is non-sense. Rather, you are simply mis-informed, which is fine. Not everyone has a legal training. I fully admit I have no scientific background, and when I state mis-information, I readily acknowledge same.

    I wonder if you have the same decency; i.e., to admit that you were absolutely wrong in claiming that Steyn is suppressing Mann’s speech. Steyn has done nothing to prevent Mann from saying whatever he wants.

  1919. #1921 Dan
    April 5, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: You may think that Climategate emails have nothing to do with Mann. I disagree. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/11/23/climategate-2-0-new-e-mails-rock-the-global-warming-debate/#36c73901988d

    You can read for yourself, but I would say an email from Phil Jones to Mann, asking Mann to delete any emails he has with Briffa re: AR4, and advising that others will do likewise, and stating “the CA (climate audit website) found the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!” is pretty significant. I would also say that Mann admitting in an email that he is seeking journalists to investigate “skeptic” is likewise significant, as are the emails by Phil Jones stating the need to hide prior work, particularly regarding the original station data.

    Chris, you actions here prove the danger Mann’s lawsuit poses to free speech. I know I have mentioned this before, but I think the bridge-gate scandal involving N.J. Gov. Christie is a perfect example.

    After all, Mann and his supporters often state that he has been “exonerated” by investigations. The Steyn post that is the subject of Mann’s suit addressed Simburg’s point that PSU’s investigation of Mann was a sham. Steyn agreed. Likewise, in Bridgegate, a governmental inquiry “exonerated” Christie of wrongdoing. It turns out that the lawyer selected to head the investigation (and was subsequently paid millions for) was a good friend of Christie’s, to the point where their families vacationed together.

    Isn’t reasonable for conclude, given the massive conflict of interest, that Christie investigation was a joke, and the results tainted? Shouldn’t journalists, or anyone else, be free to opine. Because if you answer yes, then you agree journalists should be able to opine the PSU investigation of Mann was a joke (whether you agree or not).

    This isn’t hard, guys.

  1920. #1922 Dan
    April 5, 2016

    See attached, particularly pages 15-18. http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climategate-emails.pdf

    At page 15, there is an email authored by Mann, discussing the green graph cited above. He states “we need to align the first half of the 20th century with corresponding average values of the other lines due to the late 20th century decline.”

    Again, make of it what you will, but there is certainly a reasonable argument that Mann, and his colleagues, are manipulating the data.

    Also, I can’t understand for the life of me why Mann just doesn’t agree to debate Christy, or even Steyn, and put the matter to rest. Instead, he decides to hide litigation (but yet Steyn is suppressing Mann’s speech, per desertpedophile).

  1921. #1923 Marco
    April 6, 2016

    “…is pretty significant”

    The significance being the growing frustration of continuous vexatious requests, the repeated misrepresentation of data, etc. etc.

    With as best example Dan’s “as are the emails by Phil Jones stating the need to hide prior work, particularly regarding the original station data.”

    As there IS NO SUCH E-MAIL!
    There is an e-mail from Phil Jones, clearly expressed out of frustration, that some people, who keep on accusing climate scientists of all kind of nefarious things, then demand to get data that has taken many years and very hard work to obtain. As multiple people have noted, Phil Jones was not even the original data holder, and thus he could not “hide” any data. Anyone could have done the same hard work Phil Jones and his prior colleagues had done by contacting NMOs, the original data holders. And to top things off: when all of the data was released (minus data from Poland, which did not allow it to be released), all those who screamed about hiding data and were sure there was something to be found…did NOTHING with that data. Of course, Phil Jones is now in the bad situation that NMOs are much more hesitant to sign any confidentiality agreements with people in the UK, and particular at CRU, because those apparently mean nothing in UK law.

  1922. #1924 Marco
    April 6, 2016

    “The Steyn post that is the subject of Mann’s suit addressed Simburg’s point that PSU’s investigation of Mann was a sham. Steyn agreed.”

    And you have now been explained I don’t know how many times that this is completely irrelevant to the case at hand. Steyn called Mann’s work fraudulent. His evidence? You refer to Judith Curry’s opinion, but I already told you that Steyn cannot bring that into evidence because that opinion was expressed *after* Steyn wrote his column. Well, he could bring it into evidence, and then Mann could argue that Steyn’s opinion may well have affected Curry’s opinion, and therefore this actually supports Mann’s case against Steyn!

  1923. #1925 Marco
    April 6, 2016

    “….I would simply respond at the next press-conference, highlight why said journalist is wrong, and remind him/her that she is not an attorney (most likely, as few journo’s have law degrees), and she therefore lacks sufficient foundation to assess the fraudulent nature, if any, of my actions. ”

    Ah yes, the next press conference (when does Mann have press conferences again?) which then of course also reaches the readers of National Review, right?

    I very, very much doubt that your firm would not mind that a major newspaper calls one of its lawyers a fraud. It is very likely they would want a rebuttal published, complain that journalistic ethics were transgressed by not soliciting a response, etc. etc.

    Note in the Mann-Steyn case that Mann did give NR and CEI an opportunity to remove the allegations, and instead of soliciting a response from Mann, more insults came flying.

  1924. #1926 Chris O'Neill
    April 6, 2016

    dan:

    You may think that Climategate emails have nothing to do with Mann.

    Another pathetic straw man from a pathetic person.

    an email from Phil Jones to Mann, asking Mann to

    How is that in any way, shape or form a demonstration of “evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest”?

    And whatever happened to “hiding the decline”? Has that reckless claim gone down the memory hole? You’re just putting up a pathetic Gish Gallop.

    Mann admitting in an email that he is seeking journalists to investigate “skeptic” is likewise significant

    How is Mann seeking journalists to investigate a jerk in any way a demonstration of “evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest”?

    emails by Phil Jones stating the need to hide prior work, particularly regarding the original station data.

    How does pointing out the need to respect copyright demonstrate “evidence that Mann’s work is dishonest”?

    Chris, you actions here prove the danger Mann’s lawsuit poses to free speech.

    Sure, if you say so. Sorry I can’t say I’m chilled from someone losing for maliciously claiming someone else is fraudulent. I could take the opinion of a shameless liar like you Dan that I should be but funnily enough I don’t.

  1925. #1927 Chris O'Neill
    April 6, 2016

    dan:

    Steyn doesn’t call Mann a fraud simply because they have differing opinions.

    Thank you for not disagreeing that your statement

    reasonable minds can differ about Mann on the topic of the hockey stick graph.

    is just a straw man.

    Explain how Steyn, an opinion journalist, authoring an article or blog stating

    Trouble is, Steyn didn’t stick to just writing opinion. He made a reckless claim of fact that may have misled some people. He could have said “It is my opinion, without evidence since it is opinion, that Mann did something fraudulent” but he stupidly didn’t do that.

    You can go back to lying that Mann simultaneously sues people for questioning his studies, methods and results now Dan.

  1926. #1928 Dan
    April 6, 2016

    Chris: Do you deny that Mann filed suit against Dr. Tim Ball in Canada?

    I understand that this concept might be above your pay-grade, but try and follow: saying someone cherry-picked data, ignored data contrary to his preferred conclusions, etc., — and, by extension, categorizing said conduct as fraudulent — IS QUESTIONING SOMEONE’S METHODS, STUDIES, AN RESULTS. Sure, it is doing so forcefully, but ultimately that is Steyn’s critique of Mann: his methods, and studies are willfully bogus in order to push an agenda.

    Also, how can you prove Steyn, and Steyn alone, misled people? Particularly as it comes to the blog post in question, Steyn merely expressed approval of statements made by someone else. Every. Single. Statement. Steyn has made re: Mann is based on the comments of others.

    Also, your definition of “fact” is misguided. You might think it is a “fact” that Mann did not mislead people, just as many think it is a “fact” that Mann is fraud. Why should your interpretation of the “facts” take precedence over those who disagree with you?

  1927. #1929 Dan
    April 6, 2016

    Marco: My firm wouldn’t mind at all. But that is the point. Most of you, particularly Chris O’Neill, seem confused about what a “fact” is. For example, it is a “fact” that I am a member of the State Bar of Nevada. Anyone can call the State Bar and verify same, or go to the website.

    However, whether I (or Mann, or Steyn, or you, Marco, or Chris O’Neill) is a fraud or dishonest is a matter of opinion. Going back to your example about the Washington Post, Marco: I would presume WaPo would explain exactly why they thought I was a fraud. If they didn’t, case over. IF they did explain, I would leave it up to my clients to determine for themselves. If I thought they got a fact wrong (such as accusing me of practice without a license) I would provide my bar license. If they thought my tactics were “underhanded” I would explain my differences.

    Ultimately, I wouldn’t worry about my clients. Candidly, me, and my firm, are fortunate enough to be in a position to turn down work. And if someone thought I was a fraud based on the opinions of some journalist, I frankly wouldn’t want to represent them anyway, because they wouldn’t trust me, and would be second-guessing me, etc.

    I would just continue representing my institutional clients, of whom I have never lost a trial, and have save millions of dollars for over the last year. I promise you the could care less what a journalist thinks of me.

    But, again, you need to study up on what a fact is. Two people can look at the some person and reach totally different opinions regarding their honesty. You may think Donald Trump is the most honest, best, greatest, yuge, most honest person in the world. I think he is a conniving carnival-barker fraud.

    Who is right? Ultimately, it is up to each of us to decide. Same with Mann. Or Hillary Clinton. Some people think Mann is a fraud. Others won’t. That is the beauty of living in a free country with free speech.

  1928. #1930 Dan
    April 6, 2016

    Marco: Dr. Curry was on record far before the post I linked to. Not only that, there is plenty of evidence from other scientists offered from before the July, 2012 post.

    I see you have your interpretation of the facts regarding the emails. Great. Others disagree. Why is it so hard for you to recognize the difference between fact and opinion? Or, more specifically, why is it difficult for you to recognize that two people can look at the same set of evidence and reach different conclusions. It happens all the time in jury verdicts (which is why unanimous verdicts are required in criminal trials, but often only 3/4 verdicts in civil cases).

    This really is no different then a trial. I can present evidence to a jury that a plaintiff hid relative information regarding his medical past from his doctors, show surveillance of him snowboarding when he claims he has low back pain that is virtually debilitating, and show that the treatment rendered was not accepted within the medical community.

    Some jurors will look at that and conclude he wasn’t injured. Others will look at it and say he was just trying to live his life the best he can and overcome the pain. The might think the information kept from his providers was inadvertent, or was not relevant because it didn’t deal directly with spine pain.

    There are thousands of other examples (Gov. Christie, etc).

    Why is it so hard for you to recognize that some people will look at Mann’s work and think it was fraudulently reached, while others will look at the same evidence and think his opinions are legit?

    If everyone took Mann’s view, our courts would be filled with first amendment cases. Did Gov. Christie sue? Did Hillary Clinton? Ever wonder why not?

  1929. #1931 dean
    United States
    April 6, 2016

    So people can state things that aren’t true, have it pointed out repeatedly that what they said is false, and why, then continue to repeat those falsehoods (that they now know are false, so now they are lying) and in your view it’s just stating an opinion.
    That explains everything about your behavior and the behavior of the rest of the denialists.

  1930. #1932 Chris O'Neill
    April 7, 2016

    categorizing as fraudulent IS QUESTIONING SOMEONE’S METHODS, STUDIES, AN RESULTS

    OF COURSE IT IS but QUESTIONING SOMEONE’S METHODS, STUDIES, AN RESULTS IS NOT THE SAME AS SAYING IT IS FRAUDULENT. You can question someones methods, studies and results without claiming they are fraudulent. Claims of fraudulence are all questioning to a degree, but that doesn’t mean all questioning is a claim of fraudulence. Making an assertion is not the same thing as asking a question.

    I am astounded how anyone claiming any significant intelligence can not understand this. Stop being so deliberately dense Dan.

  1931. #1933 Paykasa Bozdurma
    http://www.bozdurma.org/
    April 7, 2016

    its very good post

  1932. #1934 Chris O'Neill
    April 7, 2016

    dan:

    You might think it is a “fact” that Mann did not mislead people

    Two things.

    1. Where did I claim this is a fact?????? Just more silly putting words in my mouth from you. I was not the person who made a possibly defamatory claim of fact about Mann.

    2. Even if I had made a claim of fact about Mann, I made nothing potentially defamatory like claiming him to be fraudulent.

    Steyn made a reckless and possibly defamatory claim of fact that may have misled some people.

    What people think and what they publicly claim are two different things. Defamation laws are to do with what people publicly claim, not with what they think. I am astounded that someone who is supposed to be a lawyer does not realise this.

  1933. #1935 Desertphile
    April 13, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: Steyn made a reckless and possibly defamatory claim of fact that may have misled some people.

    What people think and what they publicly claim are two different things. Defamation laws are to do with what people publicly claim, not with what they think. I am astounded that someone who is supposed to be a lawyer does not realize this.

    Gosh, it’s almost as if Dan isn’t a lawyer.

  1934. #1936 Dan
    April 7, 2016

    Chris: If it is not a “fact” that Mann didn’t mislead people (or was dishonest, or fraudulent, etc., etc,), then Mann’s case is especially egregious because opinions are not subject to libel laws because our legal system rightly recognizes people are free to form their own opinions.

    I agree with you it is not a “fact” that Mann’s is not a fraud. That is your opinion; Steyn disagrees. Why the lawsuit. Also, why does everyone keep saying “Steyn said something deliberately false” while simultaneously admitting Steyn was stating fact.

    Let me give an example that might resonate with you. Plenty of you probably think I am an incompetent attorney. Fine. Whatever.

    Under Mann’s theory, I could sue you for libel on the grounds that “I really am a member of the bar. Call the bar and ask. So I must not be incompetent because I met the competency requirements set forth by the state bar.”

    You respond: That’s great, but I think your incompetent, and either the Nevada’s bar competency requirements are too low, they made a mistake, or you lucked out.”

    Me: But, but, but I am a member of the bar, so I am absolutely confident…

    You: “Competence is a matter is not black and white and is subject to degrees. You might think you are competent, the Nevada bar might think you are competent, but I don’t think you for XYZ”

    In Steyn v. Mann, “fraudulent” equals “competent” in the example I just gave. It is absolutely a fact the investigations into Mann cleared him. But, Steyn (and others) disagree with the investigation(s) conclusion(s), which was the point of his July, 2012 post.

    I am glad you admit that your OPINIONS regarding Mann’s honestly, or lack thereof, are exactly that: opinions. And because it is an opinion, Steyn can disagree without be subject to liable law.

    Thanks for making Steyn’s case, and for enlightening your dense fellows that Steyn did not utter a demonstrably false fact, because he didn’t say fact. He offered his opinion

  1935. #1937 Dan
    April 7, 2016

    Dean, #1931: What evidence do you have that Steyn “knows” his statements re: Mann are false (such that this type of statement can be false). I would suggest the fact that he published a book containing the statements of over 100 scientists on which he based his opinion(s)/statements means he absolutely believes them to be true.

  1936. #1938 Bernard J.
    April 7, 2016

    You refer to Judith Curry’s opinion, but I already told you that Steyn cannot bring that into evidence because that opinion was expressed *after* Steyn wrote his column. Well, he could bring it into evidence, and then Mann could argue that Steyn’s opinion may well have affected Curry’s opinion, and therefore this actually supports Mann’s case against Steyn!

    Using Curry’s piece as evidence is exactly what Mann’s team should do…

    And a general observation: this thread illustrates the difference between a “good” lawyer in the successful sense and a “good” lawyer in the sense of having skills in properly understanding the subject matter of a case and properly representing the history of such.

    The two definitions are not necessarily coincident.

  1937. #1939 Chris O'Neill
    April 8, 2016

    If it is not a “fact” that Mann didn’t mislead people

    Don’t know. The only claim of fact that I’m interested in is the reckless claim of fact made by Steyn that may have misled some people in a way defamatory to Mann.

    why does everyone keep saying “Steyn said something deliberately false” while simultaneously admitting Steyn was stating fact.

    You seem to have a lot of trouble getting this. Steyn was claiming a fact. That in no way means that everyone thinks it is a fact.

    You really are a master at being dense when you want to be Dan.

  1938. #1940 Dan
    April 11, 2016

    Well, Chris, since I seem to be dense, explain to me how, in Mann’s world view, opinion journalism would work. For example, would OJ be able to sue anyone who states he is murdered his ex-wife? After all, he was acquitted. Or Bridgegate, or any other controversial “investigation.”

    The whole point is a free society necessarily relies on the ability of the citizenry to offer varied opinions on matters of public interest. The hockey stick graph is certainly in the public interest, as it is often-cited source to promote climate change litigation. People must have the ability to question any aspect of it, INCLUDING honesty of the authors in preparing the report.

    Also, this situation perfectly illustrates the varying degrees of “fraud” or dishonesty. Look at the statements of various climate scientists, stating that while Mann’s work did not reach the level of academic fraud, it was nonetheless dishonest.

    You can call me dense, but it seems I am the only one (with the exception of RickA) here who realizes the limiting effect a Mann win would have on the first amendment. People would be subject to libel suits for simply offering their opinion that a public figure is dishonest. Think, really think, of the far-reaching implications of that..

  1939. #1941 Dan
    April 11, 2016

    Bernard: The fact that you equate an internet-forum discussion with formal litigation says much more about you then me. I promise you, whatever goes on in this board has nothing to do with actually litigating a case.

    There is no discovery, no procedural rules, no expert designations, and, oh yeah, I am not making $200 to $300 for every hour I spend on this issue.

    I check this board once every few days and post. Not even remotely the same (although I will not that I am the only one who has provided authority from a constitutional law expert that opines on what the state of the law is, not what the wish it to be. Yes, there was a post by an environmental law scholar, which did not discuss the necessary elements of libel, public/private person distinctions, nor any other relevant legal authority)

  1940. #1942 Chris O'Neill
    April 12, 2016

    I seem to be dense, how, in Mann’s world view, opinion journalism would work

    I already did but as usual you don’t pay attention (since you’re dense when you want to be). I said “(Steyn) could have said “It is my opinion, without evidence since it is opinion, that Mann did something fraudulent” but he stupidly didn’t do that”.

    a free society necessarily relies on the ability of the citizenry to offer varied opinions

    An irrelevant, non-sequitur straw man. The issue is about a claim of fact, not opinions.

    People must have the ability to question any aspect of it, INCLUDING honesty of the authors

    You can question the validity of your country’s laws regarding malicious defamation if you like, but I’m not interested in that here.

    the statements of various climate scientists

    Assuming they actually did say something defamatory, maybe they should be pay careful attention to the Steyn case.

    People would be subject to libel suits for simply offering their opinion that a public figure is dishonest.

    Yet again you apparently dishonestly misrepresent the issue. I’ll write it without your misrepresentation:

    People would be subject to libel suits for maliciously claiming as a fact that a public figure is fraudulently dishonest.

    Can’t say I see any problem with that.

  1941. #1943 Desertphile
    April 13, 2016

    Chris O’Neill: “People would be subject to libel suits for maliciously claiming as a fact that a public figure is fraudulently dishonest.”

    Dan-the-lawyer-really still wants people to believe he’s a moron (or learning-impaired), and not a liar. He wants people to believe he does not know the difference between stating an opinion and defamation / libel / calumny. In his defense, I suppose, several studies have shown that his behavior is not a choice he made: it’s congenital.

  1942. #1944 Dan
    April 12, 2016

    Chris: Are seriously claiming that Steyn, offering his opinion in an opinion magazine, had to re-iterate that he was only offering his opinion?

    National Review is not a scientific journal. Steyn is not a scientist. He never claimed to replicate Mann’s work. He merely offered his opinion that Mann has a history of deceit (see falsely claiming to be a nobel prize winner, among others), that other scientists have questioned the honesty of Mann’s work, that the investigations that Mann claims “exonerate” him did no such thing, and that some of the investigations were run by organizations with a tract record of favoring prominent faculty members.

    More to the point: the issue of Mann’s honestly (or fraudulent conduct, etc) is not a factual issue in the strict sense of the word. Two people could look at the exact same information and reach different conclusions. As acknowledged, there are degrees of honesty. It is not like saying “2 + 2 =4.”

    Saying someone is dishonest is like saying someone is corrupt, or a sore loser, or any other character trait open to interpretation.

    It is funny you claim I am dense, while at the same time implicitly admitting that you (and your fellow Mann-boys) are incapable of distinguishing between a fact and an opinion, unless the author clearly states he is offering an opinion.

  1943. #1945 Dan
    April 12, 2016

    Also, the idea that, unless Steyn said “this is my opinion, without evidence,” because Steyn did, in fact, offer evidence. YOU might not agree with the evidence, or not find it persuasive, but he did offer evidence.

    Let me break this down for you, so even a simpleton such as yourself should be able to understand:

    In the subject July, 2012 blog post on which Mann basis his lawsuit, Steyn offers the following opinion/conclusion: The Penn State investigation that “exonerated” Mann should be taken with a grain of salt, because the Penn State administration has a history of turning a blind eye towards faculty misconduct, particularly fraudulent faculty members.

    In support, Steyn offers the following (what is the word?) evidence: Penn State routinely overlooked reports of systemic child abuse, and failed to adequately investigate said allegations. If an institution fails to thoroughly investigate accusations of child rape by a prominent faculty member (the most reprehensible of conduct), what are the odds that Penn State thoroughly investigated allegations of academic misconduct relating to Mann?

    Now, again, you can think the evidence Steyn presents in support of his conclusion is weak, or non-sense, of flat out silly. But, what you cannot say is that Steyn failed to offer any evidence in support of his conclusion, because he most certainly did.

    Your belief that you have set forth adequate first amendment safe-guards is astounding in its stupidity. What you are really saying is, whenever anyone offers an opinion a public figure that the public figure (and his fans) dispute, the author of said opinion must offer a qualifier that it is only his opinion, and that he has no evidence for it.

    I wonder how far the Watergate investigation would have gone if Bernstein and Woodward had to comply with the “Chris O’neill” doctrine.

    Ronald Reagan was right: freedom is only a generation away of being lost. Sadly, free speech is under constant attack by people such as you, the “safe-zone” college students who need counseling if someone dares offer a different opinion.

    What a nation of sissies we have become

  1944. #1946 Dan
    April 12, 2016

    As to your belief that there is no problem with libel applying to those who maliciously call public figures dishonest (or any other negative term), I hope you realize that, under that standard, Mann himself would likely be sued into bankruptcy.

    How many of his fellow prominent scientists has he labeled “deniers.” How many prominent scientists/columnists/politicians has he accused of being funded by big oil, or the Koch brothers, etc.

    Not to mention, the proprietor of this site would be subject to a libel suit by Steyn, because he “maliciously” called Steyn a “racist” without evidence.

    Not to mention every single politician vying for the presidency would be subject to liable suits. Hillary has called Bernie dishonest, and vice versa. Trump calls Cruz “lying Ted;” Cruz calls Trump dishonest (or a fraud). Both Trump and Cruz have suggested Hillary broke the law. Bernie has suggested Hillary is paid off by the big banks.

    See where this could lead to. There is a reason why the media is supporting Steyn. What media organizations are supporting Mann?

  1945. #1947 Bernard J.
    April 12, 2016

    Bernard: The fact that you equate an internet-forum discussion with formal litigation says much more about you then [sic] me. I promise you, whatever goes on in this board has nothing to do with actually litigating a case.

    So you’re only an uninformed and illogical numpty in the blogosphere? I’m sure that makes it OK then.

    And you might as well discard your promise. I place no value in it.

    Also, I’ve told you time and time again that semi-literacy is not a good look, but it’s obviously not getting into the centre of the peanut.

  1946. #1948 Chris O'Neill
    April 13, 2016

    Are seriously claiming that Steyn, offering his opinion in an opinion magazine

    Don’t ask me, ask your favourite source of legal opinion:

    “One key question is whether these statements amounted to factual accusations that Mann had engaged in scientific misconduct. Or were they just a hyperbolic way of saying that he made a mistake or was a bit careless or was unintentionally biased?”

    You don’t need to read much further to see that Farber’s answer to the last question is NO.

    So if you have a problem with Farber’s opinion that Steyn’s statement is a claim of fact then take it up with him. I think we all know who is being dense about a statement of factual claim.

  1947. #1949 Chris O'Neill
    April 13, 2016

    what you cannot say is that Steyn failed to offer any evidence in support of his conclusion, because he most certainly did.

    You have a great deal of difficulty making up your mind Dan. Was it a statement of fact with evidence or just an opinion? No doubt you go deliberately dense so you don’t have to make up your mind.

    Ronald Reagan was right: freedom is only a generation away of being lost.

    Wheel out the worlds smallest violin. The constitution has put you only a generation away from losing freedom. Boo hoo hoo.

  1948. #1950 Chris O'Neill
    April 13, 2016

    Mann himself would likely be sued into bankruptcy.

    I think Mann can look after himself but thank you for your concern…trolling.

  1949. #1951 Dan
    April 13, 2016

    Chris: You also don’t need to read much further then to see Farber’s opinion that Mann’s case “will ultimately fail.” His words, not mine.

    It is also funny how, according to you, Farber answered an “A or B” question (was Steyn’ s post a factual accusation scientific misconduct, or hyperbole that he screwed up) with “No.” Okay…..

    Anyway, you might want to read Farber’s article again. In addition to answering the “Million Dollar” question by stating Mann’s case will ultimately fail, Farber also says it would be reasonable for the reader to conclude that Steyn was accusing Mann of scientific fraud.

    You would also learn that, either way, Mann has no case. If Steyn was offering “hyperbole” that Mann was careless, screwed up, etc., the case fails because opinions cannot form the basis of libel.

    If, on the other hand, the reader (i.e., jury) concludes Steyn was making a factual assertion that Mann committed scientific fraud, Steyn will prevail if he truly and honestly believed Mann did indeed commit fraud. Thus, the only way Mann can prevail is if he produces evidence that Steyn did not actually believe committed fraud. And before any of the other Mann-boys jump in saying what evidence does Steyn have that he actually believed it, Mann, and Mann only, has the burden of proof. Steyn doesn’t have to produce any evidence, although the fact that he made the statements strongly suggests he believes it (as Farber notes). Also, note Farber rightly disregards the “reckless” component. While it is true that “recklessly” making comments is considered the same as knowingly make false statements, everyone here has grossly underestimated the burden Mann must meet to prove Steyn “recklessly” made the comments. It is not enough to simply say Steyn’s comments represent the minority position, or most climate scientists disagree with Steyn, or indeed all scientists disagree with Steyn (which they don’t). The only way Steyn’s comments could be considered “reckless” is if Mann produces evidence, say an email, in which Steyn admits that he is not sure if Mann’s work is dishonest, and, in fact, thinks that in all probability it isn’t dishonest but, what the heck, I will go ahead with the blog post

    Mann is left with unenviable position of claiming Steyn said I committed fraud, but he really doesn’t believe it.

    Good luck with that.

    And, lastly, Chris, it is funny how you accuse me of wavering if Steyn’s comments were opinion or fact. Yes, people can offer evidence in support of opinions. In fact, as I type this I am taking a short break from reading an report authored by a world-renowned spine surgeon, and good friend, who offers his “opinions” that the treatment in this case was neither reasonable nor necessary. In support of his “opinions,” said surgeon relies on dozens of different pieces of evidence.

    Ultimately, the jury will decide if Steyn’s comments were factual or opinion. As noted above, it is a distinction without much of a difference, unless Mann can prove the near-impossible.

    Check-mate, again….

  1950. #1952 Chris O'Neill
    April 14, 2016

    It is also funny how, according to you, Farber answered an “A or B” question (was Steyn’ s post a factual accusation scientific misconduct, or hyperbole that he screwed up) with “No.” Okay…..

    God you’re a moron. The “last question” (words I used) was actually “Or were they just a hyperbolic way of saying that he made a mistake or was a bit careless or was unintentionally biased?” Farber went on to say:

    “But it seems to me that a reader would be justified in thinking that the language in these blogs was not just hyperbole or humor.” which means Farber’s answer to the LAST QUESTION (the words I used) is no.

    Funny how you miss Farber’s point when it’s not what you want to believe. Maybe you don’t really believe he’s the font of all valid legal opinion after all.

    Mann must meet to prove Steyn “recklessly” made the comments

    No doubt recklessness law is interesting. We’ll see. But it might be fun to watch an argument about whether someone can be reckless if they really believe they’re not being reckless.

    Check-mate, again….

    Stop playing with yourself.

    BTW, since you’re a nitpicking smartarse, Steyn could have said “It is my opinion, without sufficient evidence to be a claim of fact and thus just opinion, that Mann did something fraudulent” but he stupidly didn’t do that.