Countering the nattering nabobs of negativism on high speed rail

1457306563715This post is a follow-up to one I wrote last week (see the latter half of it) and also a response to a more recent post by David Walker. I certainly wouldn’t argue with David’s assertion that a Sydney-Brisbane Very Fast Train route is not likely to be remotely viable even in the medium term.  Pessimistic “realism” about that route was the major premise of David’s post. The population of Brisbane/Gold Coast is only around half that of either Sydney or Melbourne and the terrain in between is much more challenging than that between Sydney and Melbourne, making construction costs significantly higher.

However, I think a Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne line is worth examining much more seriously.  I certainly wouldn’t suggest (or support) construction without rigorous assessment and cost/benefit analysis by the Infrastructure Commission, but by my own rough “back of the envelope” calculations I don’t think the picture is anywhere near as negative as David Walker argues.  The terrain is much more benign than Sydney-Brisbane for a start (except for the 100 kilometres or so between Campbelltown and Mittagong).

More importantly, close to 50% of Australia’s population live within 50 kilometres of the route I envisage, and the Sydney-Melbourne air route is already the fifth most heavily travelled in the world.  The route I have in mind, including all intermediate stations en route (with current population of each intermediate city), is as follows:

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Posted in Politics - national, Public and Private Goods | 46 Comments

Spanis film festival

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Trailer Icon 03 Spanish Affair 2 (Opening Night)
Returning from months at sea, Koldo is met by his beloved Merche, who is less than impressed with him after his long absence. With her head held high, she storms away in a huff leaving him with an envelope announcing a seemingly joyful occasion – Amaia is getting married! But the fiercely Basque Koldo is horrified to realise Rafa is not the groom…even worse, she is marrying a CATALAN! With less than a few days to go before the wedding, Koldo and Rafa must join forces to prevent Amaia from promising herself to Pau, the wealthy hipster. What is not clear to Koldo, is why Rafa and Amaia separated in the first place…
☆☆☆☆☆ IMDB

Antonio, a onetime construction foreman who fell off the grid decades ago, is now a night watchman living in a junkyard. Well, not any more: business is bad, and the scrapyard’s owner just replaced him with a guard dog. Jobs are scarce in this corner of rural Mexico, and Antonio has to settle for pumping gas for pittance; but when an old co-worker stops by for a fill-up, Antonio once again gets the chance to lead a team. Setting out with four novices and a rolling spray-paint machine, the men start the job of laying down a dashed yellow line on a 217-kilometer stretch between two small towns. While on the road, a spectrum of hardships and triumphs will force the unlikely team of misfits to unexpectedly bond.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

It´s Christmas time in Barcelona and the city is brimming with magic and love. Carles and Laura have just had their first baby and they’re quickly discovering that three really is a crowd. Meanwhile, Grandma Carmen has some news, and decides that Christmas is the right occasion to tell her family about her new relationship. Adrián and Angel are roommates who share everything, but sharing a girl might prove a little more complicated than they expected. All the while, desperate romantic Oscar has set himself a goal: to have a one night stand without falling head over heels in love; and for Jaume, this night has something special in store, as an unexpected encounter with a mysterious young French woman will bring love back into his life after almost 50 years.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

June, a woman who left her home in Madrid to escape a terrible occurrence, has now returned; but not as the same person she once was. Wiser and more confident, she yearns to reconnect with her father, brother, best friend and ex-lover Diego. However, her past abrupt departure makes this much more difficult than she anticipated and she must gradually work to regain their love and trust. Her greatest challenge is Diego, who has also changed during her time away. He has become a recluse and retreated into a self-imposed solitary confinement in his apartment where he avoids human contact and natural light. June is determined to save him from disappearing completely. Slowly her presence draws him back into the world as she fights for them to reconcile their differences and realise their old dream of moving to Berlin together.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

Trailer Icon 03 Barça Dreams (Special Event)
Barça Dreams details the amazing history of one of the most popular and admired football clubs on Earth, FC Barcelona. Its mites and legends include arguably the world’s best player of all time Lionel Messi, the famous coach Pep Guardiola and the man that revolutionized this sport with his innovative vision, Johan Cruyff.
This emotional journey begins with the club’s founder Joan Gamper, 115 years ago, and follows the dreams and ambitions of a long list of football celebrities. We see the success reached by Messi, Xavi Hernández and Andrés Iniesta, all of them born to play football at the extraordinary school of La Masia. Moreover, this documentary unveils the secrets of a powerful sports club linked not only to the world fans but also to the Catalan identity, as it was formed alongside political movements and events, validating its unique legend “Barça: more than a club”.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

When theatre actor Julián receives an unexpected visit from his childhood friend Tomás, the encounter is bittersweet. This reunion is their first meeting in many years, triggered by Julián’s diagnosis with a serious illness. Tomás is baffled by his friend’s decision to forgo continued treatment and instead focus on putting his affairs in order: distributing possessions, reconciling past disputes, and, most importantly, finding a home for his beloved Staffordshire terrier, Truman. It’s this task that is causing Julián the greatest concern. Over four days, as the two men walk the streets of Madrid visiting bookshops, restaurants, doctors, and veterinarians, they examine their lives, speculating on what the future holds.
☆☆☆☆☆ Exclaim
☆☆☆☆ Eye For Film
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A Spanish couple travel to Eastern Europe with bright hopes of adopting a child. However, things do not work out as they had expected. The dream they came with threatens to turn into a nightmare as their case is dealt with by dishonest pencil pushers in a strange country and they wait to be assigned a healthy (or not so healthy) child. Finding themselves faced with growing hostility, their own latent conflicts come to the fore.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

Rocío is a young single mother who has been without work for three and a half years in the Andalucian town of Jerez de la Frontera. She is on the edge of a precipice, living day-to-day off the small allowance of odd jobs and the generosity of her neighbours. As she fights to keep her apartment (with several months of rental debt accrued) she struggles to provide for her eight-year-old son Adrián. When Rocío’s gas canister runs out or when her water is turned off, she is faced with an impossible decision: if she replaces them, there is no money to feed her son.
☆☆☆☆ IMDB

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I don’t care who wins the federal election …

ppolls-inlineFor mainstream and social media partisans the current prolonged election campaign is an essential life or death struggle for premiership victory by one’s chosen team. But to my way of thinking it doesn’t really matter very much which team wins.  The two major parties are Tweedledee and Tweedledum on asylum seekers, defence and national security issues. Both subscribe to eclectic versions of standard neoliberal economics that differ only marginally from each other, albeit somewhat skewed in favor of their primary sponsors (corporate Australia and the trade unions respectively).

As for second order political issues, a royal commission into banking is likely to prove just as much a waste of time and money as the trade union royal commission turned out to be, producing very little real reform, only occasionally entertaining courtroom theatre and a generous bread and butter income for a posse of Sydney and Melbourne barristers.  Sadly, the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse will probably end up the same way, although at least it has provided a forum for some useful catharsis for victims.  It might also lead to a non-litigious redress scheme, though present indications suggest it will be woefully underfunded.

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Posted in Political theory, Politics - national, Uncategorized | 16 Comments

Realism about high-speed rail

Super-high-speed version: Australia has better things to do with $100 billion than building a high-speed rail line. It’s all summed up in this exchange from the ABC TV series Utopia:

The fundamental point made in this clip is exactly right: the engineers, economists, and transport and logistics experts who study this issue – in Rhonda’s words, the lunatic fringe – all tend to wind up finding that Australian HSR doesn’t make sense.

Now here’s the non-express version …

In looking at high-speed rail (HSR) at various times since the Hawke years, you can make a few fairly defensible conclusions:

  • High-speed rail is economical for certain routes, but right now Australia is probably not one of them. The “sweet spot” for HSR trips is between two and three hours. (The fastest Tokyo-Osaka bullet train takes just over two-and-a-half hours; a Paris to Lyon HSR takes just under two. These are the ideal HSR routes.)
  • Benefit-cost calculations for Australian high-speed rail almost always show a Sydney-Melbourne or Brisbane-Sydney-Melbourne high-speed line would struggle to deliver net economic benefits.
  • That may change in the future, if you can get Sydney-Melbourne travel times below three hours.
  • You should assume these routes would actually cost more than currently projected; research by people like Danish economic geographer Bent Flyjberg shows this is the norm for such projects.
  • The proposed Australian HSR would probably bring about a net increase in emissions. This is counter-intuitive until you consider the knock-on effects. For instance, Sydney Airport’s limitations currently mean there’s pent-up demand for Sydney flights; a new train connection will not mean less flights out of Sydney Airport, but rather will mean different flights. Building the line would also use a lot of emissions-intensive concrete and steel.
  • There is not a huge obvious inherent value in a decentralisation project that effectively makes Albury-Wodonga or Canberra or Shepparton into an outer suburb of Melbourne or Sydney. On the contrary, in many ways, crowded is good and decentralisation is bad.
  • To quote Spanish high-speed rail expert Daniel Albalate, the opportunity costs of building uneconomic high-speed rail can be huge, because the projects cost so much. That’s what happened in Spain,where the high-speed rail network cost an estimated €40 billion. $100 billion on HSR is $100 billion you can’t spend on other things.

If you’re not bored yet, here’s even more analysis:

  • My original 2013 criticisms of high-speed rail, eagerly greeted by Club Troppo commenters with plaudits such as “very unconvincing”, “I reckon you’re on weak ground” and “how about fast inter-urban type trains?”
  • INTHEBLACK magazine’s global survey of high-speed rail, written by the admirable Susan Muldowney and including comments from Daniel Albalate and David Hensher and much other insight besides.
  • INTHEBLACK’s survey of megaproject costs and benefits, also by Susan Muldowney and including Bent Flyjberg’s comments.

The Australian high-speed rail proposal comes up every few years and the reasons why it’s currently a bad idea haven’t changed that much.

But the latest proposal is accompanied by a bunch of talk about a new thing – “value capture”. The Prime Minister is quoted as saying this week that “that’s how railways were financed in the 19th century, actually”.

The PM is right: value capture is a real thing. However, Continue reading

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Is destroying illegal ivory a really bad idea?

Governments around the world have in recent years destroyed their seized stockpiles of illegal ivory, egged on by the World Wildlife Federation which believes it sends a signal to gangs that kill Elephants and Rhinos for their tusks. In January, Sri Lanka reportedly crushed 350 tusks, and in 2015 several tonnes were crushed in the US and China alone.

ivory burn in Gabon

Now, don’t get me wrong, of course I condemn the killing of elephants and rhinos for their tusks and wish the end of the hunting gangs that kill these magnificent animals. But, but, but ….. crushing the seized ivory really does seem to me a bad idea because it drives up the price of illegal ivory and hence makes it more lucrative to kill more animals. Rather, the seized ivory should be sold to the end users by an independent international organisation, with the proceeds spent on something that helps elephants and rhinos, like a large nature reserve or a breeding program.

Think about it: selling the ivory to the end-users on the black market will reduce the prices and hence the incentives for gangs to kill more elephants and rhinos. So selling it to drive down the price and using the proceeds to help the animals has a double-benefit. All it needs is a two-track approach of selling to the same black-market users that other enforcement agencies will be trying to close down, ie we should sell to the users that the police can’t find. And in order to be able to do that, the entity selling it should be completely separate from the police.

Have things like this been done before? Certainly. A good example is a gun amnesty, whereby we pay for the illegal guns still owned by the general public, no questions asked: they have gotten away with it and rather than lose ourselves in moralizing, we pragmatically pay them for their guns so as to minimize the impact of their illegal activity on our society. Amnesties for previously undeclared taxes follow the same principle.

The current practice violates basic economics: by crushing the seized ivory, the authorities are driving up the price and condemning more elephants and rhinos to a horrible death. The moral crusaders of the World Wildlife Federation of course don’t mean to do this, but I do think their actions will have that unintended effect. A bit more pragmatism would help their cause.

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Environment, Miscellaneous, Politics - international, Social, Society, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

The need for Internet speed

high-speed-internet-660x370Apparently Labor doesn’t intend reverting to the full Fibre to the Premises (“FTP”) version of the National Broadband Network it previously championed if returned to government later this year:

The opposition leader admitted that he would not unpick all of the Coalition’s changes to the NBN, which include the introduction of mixed technologies like copper wire to keep the costs of the project down.

Instead it appears Labor would somehow put greater emphasis on FTP and less on Fibre to the Node (“FTN”) (which relies on old copper wires to bridge the last 400 metres from the “node” to the premises). Exactly how and to what extent Labor would do this isn’t made clear by Shorten, but it really needs to be spelled out given the importance of genuinely high speed broadband to Australia’s future.

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Posted in IT and Internet, Politics - national | 38 Comments

Forecasting: the (Open) Road Ahead

Below the introduction to a piece in The Mandarin today.

We shoot the breeze about who’ll win the next election or footy match. Virtually none of it helps predict the future. But we’re driven on … as if somehow it will.

We do it with the economy. People ask economists how they see the future and most role-play the expert when the honest, indeed expert answer would usually be the answer Treasurer John Kerin gave to journalists when they asked when economic recovery would take hold. “Your guess is as good as mine”. Still, refusing to play the role is no way to hang onto it. Kerin was relieved of his duties as Treasurer shortly after this outbreak of candour.

Even so, myriad decisions are predicated on specific views of the likely future. And skilful effort can improve economic foresight. If only a little. That’s why Treasury asked Warren Tease, veteran econocrat fresh from a lengthy mid-career in the private sector, and now principal adviser in Treasury, to report on its forecasting.

The rest of the article on the link above.

Posted in Economics and public policy, Innovation, Web and Government 2.0 | 4 Comments