The 2016 Republican presidential field is shaping up into a legendary free-for-all, with polls showing the race wide open and more candidates expressing interest by the day. Will it be Jeb Bush who consolidates establishment support? Can Rand Paul or Ted Cruz break through with a powerful grassroots coalition? Could Scott Walker thread the needle between both sides? What about Marco Rubio? And then there’s the Democratic side. Will it be Hillary Clinton who prevails? Or will – actually, you know what, it will probably just be Hillary Clinton. While the former secretary of state hasn’t even said whether she’ll seek the party’s nomination, her overwhelming dominance in polls, organization and endorsements raises the question of whether the Democratic vacuum might drag the Republican primary into its orbit – and even carry over into the general election. It’s a scenario that has veteran operatives from both parties talking in early primary and caucus states, where a Clinton coronation could prompt some less partisan voters to skip the Democratic contest and participate in the more competitive Republican race “If Hillary Clinton is viewed as having the Democratic caucus in the bag, Republicans will be vying for independents and other persuadable voters,” Jeff Patch, a Republican strategist in Iowa and former state GOP spokesman, told msnbc. “It’s pretty typical if you don’t have a heavily contested election that independents would be more interested in voting in a contested election,” said Kathy Sullivan, the former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Politicos for the most part see true blue Democrats leaping to the Republican side as an unlikely scenario, but the large, varied and poorly understood group of undeclared and independent voters are another story. In the right circumstances, a surge in participation could swing the race to the candidate who courts them hardest. Independents’ Day The imbalance between the two parties would hardly be a first. After all, it was just four years ago that a crowded Republican field hogged the spotlight while President Obama went uncontested for re-election. Republicans were hoping for a surge of interest and turnout in early states versus 2008, when the prolonged Democratic primary ended up boosting that party’s registration in key states and strengthening Obama, the eventual nominee. The GOP surge didn’t materialize in most cases, but with one key exception: Turnout did go up in states where independents could vote or easily switch their party registration on the day of the race, suggesting the lack of Democratic competition may have brought some crossover votes with it. These include the critical contests of Iowa, where voters can change party registration at the caucus site on the day of the election; New Hampshire, where undeclared voters can vote in either party’s primary; and South Carolina, which has a fully open primary. In that state, 25% of GOP primary voters described themselves as independents in 2012 exit polls, up from 18% in 2008. In New Hampshire, the number jumped from 34% in 2008 to 47% in 2012. Political analysts sometimes sneer at the notion of true “independents,” saying many behave like partisans or are on the fringes of electoral politics and hard to reach. In 2012, a significant chunk of tea party conservatives traded in their “R” for an “I,” which lulled Mitt Romney supporters into the false belief that their candidate’s lead with independents showed he was winning swing voters. But that doesn’t mean voters outside the traditional party bases aren’t relevant, especially in a low turnout caucus or primary where even a small number of surprise votes can swing the outcome. In Iowa, a record 122,000 people showed up to vote in the 2012 Republican caucuses – but they were only about 19% of registered GOP voters. “It’s a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy,” Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the famed Des Moines Register survey, said. “If candidates go in thinking the only way to win the caucuses is to turn out Christian conservatives, than that’s how they campaign and that’s who shows up.” That’s what happened in Iowa in 2008 and 2012, when Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum four years later rode social conservative support to victory. On the Democratic side, however, Obama toppled Clinton in 2008 in Iowa thanks to an intense organizing effort that enlisted thousands of new caucus-goers, including independents. The then-Illinois senator won that group in the caucuses by an 18 point margin over second-place finisher John Edwards. It’s possible that in 2016, the right candidate could accomplish something similar on the GOP side. One Republican candidate in particular is building their campaign hopes around this idea: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. “I think Rand Paul has an early edge in trying to expand the Republican electorate.

• published: 24 Apr 2016
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