The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Revisionism April 12, 2016

This will be of interest to many here, I think. Thanks to the person who sent the link to a piece from the Conference of Irish Historians In Britain on Jim Smyth’s ‘Revisionism Revised – by Revisionists’.

Independents…2 April 12, 2016

And just speaking of the Independents, the Phoenix (which is a particularly good read this edition) has an interesting report on a potential divvy up of Cabinet seats for an FG minority led government. The Phoenix suggests that there might be four Independent ministers.

I haven’t read elsewhere that that is the idea and I’d have thought the formerly very large parties would be all too aware of the dangers in this of gifting credibility and now possibly governmental authority to the Independents.

Though in a way that adds to the point made in the earlier post about the way in which Independents have been thrust to the centre of government formation in a way which is quite unlike the past.

If we do see Independents ushered into the light of political day as cabinet members would the calculation that it isn’t possible to eject them at this point and perhaps that a spot of government might see their numbers dwindle subsequently as has been the pattern for the PDs, GP and most recently the LP?

If Kenny returns as Taoiseach… April 12, 2016

…isn’t it genuinely remarkable that he would be the first FG Taoiseach to do so in the history of the party he is leader of. Isn’t that quite something? Can anyone point to the reasons why FG has been so unsuccessful in retaining state power during the last seventy odd years?

Is it wrong… April 12, 2016

…for me to want this story to be accurate?

Tánaiste Joan Burton has told senior Labour Party figures she wants to stay on as party leader and has discussed a campaign to retain the leadership, even though many in the party believed she would step down.

Independent… 1 April 12, 2016

One particularly interesting aspect of the current government formation processes is the way in which so many Independent TDs have been highly visible in the process. This, of course, is expedient – it counters charges that they are irrelevant (Fine Gael’s kind and unilateral offer of inclusion of them in an FG/FF partnership government also is on harm). But note the way in which centripetal forces have functioned. Simply put both the Independent Alliance, and arguably to a great degree, and the ‘rural’ TDs have developed and maintained an identity as groups. Indeed the latter have even brought on, as a sort of sidebar, the Healy-Rae’s – who, whatever their ideological approaches are two of the shrewdest individuals in Irish politics. This means that in effect 11 or so individual Independent TDs have been involved from the off with one or two more orbiting the process from somewhat further out.

One can entirely disagree with them doing so while acknowledging that this will do them absolutely no harm at all at the next election. You wanted relevant, you wanted people who would fight for your corner, well, you got it. And we’ll be as ‘responsible’ next time out. One can almost write the texts of the radio and television interviews.

Moreover since blame is accreting to Fianna Fáil primarily, though FG isn’t getting away free on this one either, they come out of it looking particularly well.

Perhaps this is simply testament to the fact that centre right independents now have considerable political weight. There’s fourteen of them (I’m counting both Halligan and F. McGrath in). I could included one or two more who are functionally of a mind with this. But more important – I think – is the fact they’re working in concert and within two fairly easily defined groups that are clearly able to make some common cause with one another.

It’s telling, perhaps, that on paper there are about 11, possibly 12 or thirteen ‘left’ independents and smaller party TDs, excluding the SDs and the GP. And yet due to the fissiparous nature of their allegiances as well as – again correctly – not being involved in these processes, their voices are near enough absent in the broader narrative.

If all this ends in tears, if matters turn particularly ugly between FG and FF the left independents and others will have the satisfaction of saying how pointless it all was, and that may play well. The centre right independents will also be able to say that they did the best they could.

Difficult to see them not returning in numbers next time out, however soon it is.

‘Constructive’ talks on the government… April 11, 2016

…are reported this evening. I’m tempted to say that means an election in six weeks time, but surely that’s too cynical. Isn’t it?

A ‘third way’ for government formation? April 11, 2016

Entertaining balloon floated by Noel Dempsey in the SBP this weekend. A ‘third way’ no less, between minority government and an FF-FG coalition. And what would that be then?

Why, one that ‘would require courage, innovative thinking, magnanimity and patriotism’ and ‘for those reasons it will probably not find favour’.

Go on so.

The solution is an agreement between the two large parties, and any willing Independents, to work together to provide stable government for five years – while still largely maintaining their individuality and independence.

FG and FF would lead the government for two and a half years each, over the five year term.

They would agree to abide by the budgetary parameters set by the Fiscal Advisory Council each year. They would also agree not to support ‘no confidence’ motions against each other. Apart from those circumstances, all those in the agreement would be free to vote for or against legislation as it arose.

If this seems like a most expedient carve-up, well, so it is. The mention of the FAC is concerning, but given the lack of mileage in the suggestion (at least one hopes) it’s probably neither here nor there.

I’d wonder though. Simply in terms of Ministers getting to know Departments it seems to me plucking them out two and half years in and replacing them with new one’s seems unwise – and don’t get me started on reshuffles.

All that aside Dempsey’s piece is interesting because it provides an insight into one strand of FF thinking. He seems to say that there would be support for such an approach, or indeed a coalition between FF and FG in the Dáil cohort but not amongst party members – no surprise about the latter, but I hadn’t heard that about the former.

Yet again ‘fear of SF’ as the opposition party raises its head. He seems to think this approach might mitigate that. Perhaps. Still he’s probably not wrong in arguing that the electorate will have little patience with FF and FG if they don’t do something with one another.

Moving on from the recent political past? April 11, 2016

A lot of noise over the weekend about the formation of a new government. Fianna Fáil are doing their best to present an image of constructiveness after a very real back-lash against them due to their refusal to enter a partnership government. Minority government is all in the air – more on that over the next few days. It will be educative to see how matters go on Thursday. If one is to believe the media there have been some interesting meetings over the past forty-eight hours between the parties, or leading members thereof. The only game in town? We’ll see.

It is clear that the result early this year at the election was of a scale and nature that FF hadn’t entirely expected. To be so close, so tantalisingly close, to Fine Gael was an added bonus. 24.3% of the vote as against 25.5%. 44 TDs as against 50.

Compare and contrast with the final polls of the election campaign and FF was pushing up towards the higher end of its support. They’d been broadly speaking in a band of support between 16 and 23% and they went a percentage point or so better. It looks reasonable to suggest they increased support across the campaign.

The reasons aren’t entirely surprising. Martin had a good campaign, he came across better than Kenny, Burton and Adams in debate. Of course he may not be facing that triumvirate again. A younger FG leader might cause him some trouble – a different SF leader likewise (by the way, what shape the leader debates next time out – three leaders for one, or four?). Government ineptitude across the previous five years was a much deeper factor – one that seriously impacted on the LP and caused more than glancing blows to FG.

And there was a certain element of forgetfulness. In 2011 FF was well down. 17.4% at the election. I remember talking to a long time member from the west who was genuinely shocked by the response to him and their local candidate on the door. He’d never experienced such hostility in fifty years of canvassing for the party. He never will again it seems like. A chunk of about 8% of the electorate was willing to somewhat forgive, somewhat forget, even if a larger portion was unwilling to return.

Yet FF was out of power, and still is, only five years. A number of those returned in the 32nd Dáil were integrally involved in decisions that contributed to the crisis or served in governments that led up to it.

Yet today all that is seemingly irrelevant. FF is back, albeit in diminished form. It is the hinge around which formation of government pivots.

The question is – if we got to a second election – how does FF do? The anger that party member experienced may have dissipated, but is there any chance that FF could add 1, 2, 5% or more on to its vote? Can those events be wiped away, cleansed – as it were – from the public mind? For 1 in 4 voters they clearly have been.

It’s long been said on the CLR in comments by some that they mustn’t be allowed off the hook. In truth FG and the LP, for their own reasons, attempted to keep that past live in the Dáil chamber and beyond during the election campaign, but it didn’t work. Does that suggest that it has lost some of its immediacy?

Or is there a ceiling on its vote even still. The first post-election poll would seem to support that contention.

This is why we are still going through the government formation rigmarole a month and a half after the election. Because it is a gamble on the electorate: does the latter forget yet more or does it push back? It’s that space between those two positions that much of what we see is being fought out within.

A piece on Labour April 11, 2016

I’ve seen this article praised by many in Labour on various Social Media platforms.
Interestingly it doesn’t really mention Sinn Fein but is a critique of the far Left and FF, FG.

Any other post election pieces by Labour people worth reading?