With the recent meeting over and out of the way (see also here), it looks like the West may finally be getting down to putting the screws to Uzbekistan. As Laurence mentioned in the previous post, the United States has followed up its meeting with Karimov with condemnation of Uzbekistan at the OSCE, saying in perhaps the clearest terms I have seen a US official say it, that Uzbekistan is not only failing to meet its international commitments but also undermining its security and the region’s security.
Though I would assume the timing is most likely coincidental, the EU has decided to take concrete retaliation (more here).
“The (EU) Council has decided to impose an embargo on exports to Uzbekistan of arms, military equipment and other equipment that might be used for internal repression,” ministers will say according to a draft text seen by Reuters on Thursday.
Other measures are to include visa bans on officials and individuals seen as implicated in the violence, cuts to EU aid programmes, and a call on EU states to highlight the need for respect of human rights in all bilateral dealings with Tashkent.
It remains to be seen whether or not the United States will follow suit, but given the emphatic point put on the breakdown in bilateral relations, there are few tangible reasons to hold off.
UPDATE: From commenter A.U., a few members of Congress are proposing a resolution that to be frank doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of doing anything concrete except embarrass Uzbekistan. (Which isn’t quite what it used to be…)
And of much more significance is this WaPo story. It’s a whole new world when this is the message that’s getting out there.
The Bush administration has concluded that Karimov fears democracy more than terrorism, officials said.
I’d love to know exactly what they said, but if the Uzbek government has decided to stop counterterrorism cooperation with the US, then I say sing this from the mountaintops.
This also potentially adds an entirely new rhetorical tool for moderate, secular, opposition forces. Pro-reform and genuinely interested in counterterrorism for counterterrorism’s and regional security’s sake (as opposed to the sake of one’s own behind) is a pretty nice alternative to say the least.
This post was written by...
Nathan Hamm – author of 2991 posts on Registan.net.
Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.
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We do have a reason to pull our punches a bit, and it’s overflight rights. Perhaps that’s the reason for the recent US military visit in Turkmenistan; that if Uzbekistan refused us military overflight of their country Turkmenistan would make a convenient alternative.
What’s the latest rumor on the next air base? Any more proof that Russia or China will use K2?
“…congressman who introduced a resolution Wednesday in the House of Representatives that would urge quick and strong action.” – http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2005/09/30/64107.html
Washington Post – “The Bush administration has concluded that Karimov fears democracy more than terrorism, officials said. The biggest threat to his government is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which a State Department report says has been involved in attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan and has plotted attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Central Asia. Aligned with al Qaeda, it seeks to overthrow Karimov and create an Islamic government, the report says.
The Uzbek issue is gaining more attention on Capitol Hill. Reps. William D. Delahunt (D-Mass.) and Lloyd Doggett (D-Tex.) held a news conference yesterday to urge the White House to end all Pentagon payments to Tashkent and to go to the United Nations to bring the Uzbek leader to justice.” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/29/AR2005092902199.html)
That Washington Post article is interesting as a retrospective. Since the CIA had apparently a rather cooperative relationship with Uzbek intelligence (going so far as renditioning prisoners to Tashkent), I can imagine that after Andijan the CIA would have requested detailed classified information about this Islamic insurgent attack. It took several days for Washington to harden its stance against Uzbekistan, and I speculate that during that time the CIA was either fed garbage intelligence or was stonewalled until their credibility was lost.
Another article was published on NEWSru.com (link below), the article says that on Friday a new bill submitted to Committee on Foreign Relations of the US House of Representatives, the bill urges the White House to use all possible measures in the UN Security Council to have the International Criminal Court try President Karimov.
http://www.newsru.com/world/30sep2005/usa_karimov.html
US and EU, as Russians say, “trying to make a good face in the lost game”… Who is really care about so called “sanctions” in Central Asia?! First – arms embargo is nonsense as soon as there was no any arms import from West. Second – “political isolation” is nonsense in CA – look to the map just and take into mind that Uzbek leader just returned from Malaysia and going to S’Peterburg for CA Coop.Org. summit. Third – doese EU and NATO really care about Afghanistan risking to lose Termez?!
Not going to give a blow-by-blow… Wait, yes I will.
1) Yes, Uzbekistan has gotten arms from the West.
2) Not really nonsense… I mean, cool for Uzbekistan on the Malaysia thing. I’m sure that’s going to turn into massive investment into the Uzbek economy. To quote a great film, “I do not think that word means what you think it does.”
3) We can turn that around. Does Uzbekistan really care about Afghanistan kicking out support bases for the stabilization of the country? Or, we can look at it differently. Does the EU and NATO need Termez so badly that it’ll roll over into submission?
1) Admit it – there is some western stuff in Uzbek army, bur really “some”. You know the persentage? I don’t, but today I come across a number -…0,7%. You know what kind of “arms” these? Sure, you’re aware about that equipment, which is not really cannons, aircrafts, guns and etc. – exactly what was referd as a hard punch in case of embargo to Burma or Indonesia, but not so for China or Syria.
2) Good movie quote by the way! And now just re-refer in consideration with Western “massive aid and investment”. Sure you know figures and proportions, example – average 1mln and bit per year from wast number of EU programs with a wast cuts for “expertise”. Makes sense when you see 1bln of China instead. Of course, its too simplistic, but…
3)About “Afghanistan care” – Sad to say, but international anti-terror (read pro-Afhan people) solidarity vanished as soon as it was messed with unfundamental idealism and rude geopolitics in the same time. Who did that mess?! Uzbeks, who really spent 10 years fearing threat from Afghanistan and hoping to “open the world through this country”? Or “West”, who can easily fragment uniqe solidarity for still foggy “sino-russian fear” and more foggy “Greater Middle East renovation” hopes?
Sad..