When
Chinese naval supply vessel
Qiandaohu entered
Australia’s Albany Port this month to replenish Chinese warships helping search for a missing
Malaysian airliner, it highlighted a strategic headache for
Beijing – its lack of offshore bases and friendly ports to call on.
China’s deployment for the search – 18 warships, smaller coastguard vessels, a civilian cargo ship and an
Antarctic icebreaker – has stretched the supply lines and logistics of its rapidly expanding navy, Chinese analysts and regional military attaches say.
China’s naval planners know they will have to fill this strategic gap to meet Beijing’s desire for a fully operational blue-water navy by 2050 – especially if access around
Southeast Asia or beyond is needed in times of tension.
China is determined to eventually challenge
Washington’s traditional naval dominance across the
Asia Pacific and is keen to be able to protect its own strategic interests across the
Indian Ocean and
Middle East.
“As China’s military presence and projection increases, it will want to have these kind of (port) arrangements in place, just as the
U.S. does,” said Ian Storey, a regional security expert at
Singapore’s
Institute of
South East Asian Studies.
“I am a bit surprised that there is no
sign that they even started discussions about long-term access. If visits happen now they happen on an ad-hoc commercial basis. It is a glaring
hole.”
The United States, by contrast, has built up an extensive network of full bases –
Japan,
Guam and
Diego Garcia – buttressed by formal security alliances and access and repair agreements with friendly countries, including strategic ports in Singapore and
Malaysia.
While China is building up its fortified holdings on islands and reefs in the disputed
South China Sea, its most significant southernmost base remains on
Hainan Island, still some 3,
000 nautical miles away from where Chinese warships have been searching for missing
Malaysia airlines flight
MH370.
Military attaches say foreign port access is relatively easy to arrange during peace-time humanitarian efforts – such as the search for MH370 or during anti-piracy patrols off the
Horn of Africa – but moments of tension or conflict are another matter.
“If there was real tension and the risk of conflict between China and a U.S. ally in
East Asia, then it is hard to imagine Chinese warships being allowed to enter
Australian ports for re-supply,” said one Beijing-based analyst who watches China’s naval build-up.
“
We are pragmatic and we know there are sensitivities surrounding these kinds of discussions, or even historic suspicions in some places, so the time is probably not right just yet,” he said.
“I expect to see more friendship visits, and on-going access on a request basis. Then there is the issue of making sure the facilities can meet our needs.”
Operationally, long-range deployments such as the anti-piracy patrols and the search for wreckage of MH370 have proved important logistical learning curves, he added.
Potential blue-water deployments of future air-craft carrier strike groups further complicates China’s logistical outlook.
China’s first carrier, the
Liaoning, a
Soviet-era ship bought from
Ukraine in
1998 and re-built in a Chinese shipyard, is being used for training and is not yet fully operational.
Regional military attaches and analysts said it could be decades before China was able to compete with U.S. carriers, if at all.
Tai
Ming Cheung, director of the
U.C. Institute of
Global Conflict and Co-operation at the
University of California, described the
MH370 search as a “major learning moment” for the
People’s Liberation Army (
PLA) and could lead to a push from its top brass to develop global power-projection capabilities.
The PLA covers all arms of the military, including the navy.
Chinese officials and analysts have bristled at suggestions by
Western and
Indian counterparts that Beijing is attempting to create a so-called “string of pearls” by funding port developments across the Indian Ocean, including
Pakistan,
Sri Lanka,
Bangladesh and
Myanmar.
Nor is the base at
Woody Island in the
Paracels further north, where China is expanding a runway and harbor.
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- published: 02 Nov 2014
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