The recent tensions and incidents between the
Chinese and
Japanese militaries have led to heated discussions about the possibility and consequences of another
Sino-Japanese war among observers from military and academic circles, as well as the public.
Although the outbreak of a full-scale war has been largely ruled out, Chinese observers warn of conflicts ignited by unexpected emergencies, in which
China is rated as having the edge over
Japan despite potential US interference.
The relationship between
Beijing and
Tokyo soured after Japan's so-called nationalization of the
Diaoyu Islands in the
East China Sea in September last year.
Against that backdrop, military ties have encountered several tests since early this year
. In the latest case,
China's defense ministry lodged a solemn representation to Tokyo over a Japanese warship's breaking into the live-fire drill zone of the
People's Liberation Army (
PLA) Navy in the
West Pacific. In response, Japan vowed to continue its surveillance activities.
As the
PLA Navy concluded its war games on Friday, Japan kicked off a massive 18-day military exercise, including an island capture drill and deployment of missiles on
Miyako Island, which is believed to bolster its capability in blocking the Chinese navy's passage to the West Pacific.
The rhetoric and drills from both sides have led many people to ask if the two countries would fight a war in the near future.
Amid those concerns, an analysis from
Russian experts first published in
September 2012 resurfaced on China's
Internet forums and news portals
.
In the Russian report, Vasiliy
Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based
Center for
Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, predicted a "humiliating failure" for China if a war with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands breaks out, citing Japan's advanced weaponry and personnel training.
Another Russian expert cited by the report,
Konstantin Sivkov, first vice president of the
Academy for Geopolitical
Issues, however, believed the
Japan Self-Defense Force would lose if China's leadership is determined to reclaim the disputed islands but indicated that the
Chinese military would be defeated by Japan's ally US.
The Russian analysis drew more than 11,
000 comments on Chinese news portal sina.com.cn, with Net users deliberating the conclusions.
On tiexue.net, a discussion group, Net users struck a more upbeat note on the outcome of military conflicts, and demanded reclaiming the Diaoyu Islands by force.
Liu
Jiangyong, a vice dean of the
Institute of
Modern International Relations at
Tsinghua University, told the
Global Times that due to its pacifist constitution, Japan is unable to launch a war and its recent rhetoric about shooting down Chinese drones is a psychological war to test China.
Major General Luo Yuan, a vice president of the China Strategic
Culture Promotion Association, told the Global Times that the assessment by Russian experts was inaccurate due to their outdated information, but it reminds China to remain cautious.
Luo said neither side has the intention to fight a full-fledged war. "China's defense capability has seen a great leap. Japan has neither the guts nor the capability to fight such a war," he said.
A military expert from the
PLA Air Force, who asked to remain anonymous, shared similar views, noting that the Chinese foreign ministry's repeated statements over the Diaoyu Islands have shown Beijing's will to solve the dispute through peaceful means.
Last week, China's media carried extensive coverage of the nuclear-powered submarine fleet, which is seen as a deterrent to any attempted provocation.
"Japan may excel in its anti-submarine capability, but it doesn't have nuclear submarines as well as marines, and lags behind China in its number of naval aircraft models," Luo said.
The air force expert said potential US involvement is definitely a factor complicating the situation, but insisted China keeps developing its comprehensive strength. "This is not
1895 nor the
1940s when China suffered huge humiliations. It is gradually reversing its inferiority and gaining momentum," he said.
According to Luo, the incomplete national defense structure of Japan indicates its needs for US support in various fields including logistics and intelligence, however, it remains in doubt whether the US is willing to confront the world's second-largest economy for Japan.
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- published: 27 Nov 2013
- views: 2156