[Newsa] Cruz, Sanders leading in Wisconsin primary, poll finds

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• published: 31 Mar 2016
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Ted Cruz has overtaken front-runner Donald Trump in the critical run-up to Wisconsin’s April 5 GOP primary, amid a determined push here by anti-Trump Republicans to slow down the New York businessman’s march toward the nomination. In the Democratic contest, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has carved out a very narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in the same statewide poll released Wednesday by the Marquette University Law School. Cruz, the senator from Texas, leads the Republican contest with 40 percent, followed by Trump at 30 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 21 percent. Trump had the exact same level of support (30 percent) last month. But he has failed to pick up new voters despite the departure from the GOP race of Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Cruz, who doubled his support since then. Views of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents in the state have grown more negative toward Trump in the new polling. Back in January, 35 percent had an unfavorable view of Trump.That grew to 45 percent in February and has grown again to 51 percent in March. The Democratic race has been more stable. Back in January, former secretary of state Clinton led Sanders by 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent. Last month, Sanders led 44 percent to 43 percent. In the new poll, Sanders leads 49 percent to 45 percent. The poll was taken last Thursday through Monday, before Gov. Scott Walker’s formal endorsement of Cruz, and before Trump responded with a fierce attack on Walker’s record in Wisconsin. In the race for state Supreme Court on Tuesday’s ballot, Justice Rebecca Bradley held a lead of 41 percent to 36 percent over Appeals Court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg. There was a big chunk of undecided voters — 18 percent. Bradley — appointed to the court by Gov. Scott Walker — was viewed favorably by 32 percent, unfavorably by 28 percent and 41 percent didn’t know enough about her to form an opinion. Kloppenburg was viewed favorably by 30 percent, unfavorably by 35 percent and 35 percent didn’t have enough information to form an opinion. The polling reflects a powerful partisan current in the nonpartisan court race: Democratic primary voters break sharply for Kloppenburg, as Republicans do for Bradley. In the fall race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Russ Feingold led Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson by 47 percent to 42 percent, a significant tightening between the two rivals. Among likely voters, Feingold led Johnson by 48 percent to 45 percent. The poll underscored the vulnerability of both presidential front-runners in Wisconsin. Trump and Clinton are widely viewed by Wisconsin voters as the likely nominees, according to the survey. But both now trail their rivals here in the battle for support within their parties. And both fare more poorly than their party rivals in hypothetical general election matchups against the other side. For example, Clinton leads Trump by 47 percent to 37 percent in Wisconsin, but Sanders’ margin is even bigger, 54 percent to 35 percent. Clinton is tied with Cruz at 44 percent, but Sanders has a clear lead, 52 percent to 39 percent. Clinton trails Kasich 39 percent to 48 percent, but Sanders has a slight lead over him, 46 percent to 44 percent. In short, Trump trails by double-digits against both Democrats, while Sanders leads against all three Republicans. Even though the poll was done before Walker’s endorsement of Cruz, a clear pattern has emerged involving the governor and the GOP presidential race. Republican primary voters who approve of Walker back Cruz (45 percent) by a big margin over Trump (27 percent) and Kasich (18 percent). But those primary voters who don’t approve of Walker back Trump (44 percent) over Kasich (38 percent). Cruz gets only 16 percent of the Walker disapprovers. Cruz benefits from that pattern, because there are far more GOP voters who approve of Walker than don’t. That schism could deepen further,...