The latest update from my series of Campaigns & Elections class assignments…
Obama McCain update #6- October 24th, 2008
Since the last analysis, four states have changed categories: three in Obama’s favor and one in McCain’s. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Minnesota: Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Ohio: Tossup to Leaning Obama
Montana: Leaning McCain to Tossup
West Virginia: Tossup to Leaning McCain
All these state moved one class, but for all it was actually only a change of less than four percentage points. RCP currently lists the “solid†Electoral Vote (EV) count at 259 (up 10 from last report)-137 in Obama’s favor. When all states rated “leaning†are credited to that candidate, Obama picks up 47 EVs to move from 259 to 306 (up 33 from last report), McCain gains twenty to go from 137 to 157 (up 3 from last report), and tossups have dropped 35 EVs from 110 to 75. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all currently with 3.3% or less margin, down from 4.2%) and pull 37 EVs from Obama. The four Obama-leaners are Virginia (13EV), Colorado (9EV), Ohio (20EV), and New Mexico (9). RCP currently has Obama with 7.0, 5.4, 6.0, and 8.4% leads respectively, in those states. McCain needs to win the tossups (all of which are within a 3.4% margin of error), OH, VA, and either CO or NM to pull out a victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently three favor McCain, and four Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ; the same is true of Colorado with the exception of 1992, when Clinton won with 40% of the vote due to Perot pulling 26%.
I still have severe doubts as to the accuracy of these polls. Thursday saw national polls come out with Obama’s lead ranging from 1-13 points! This race is totally unpredictable, and the polls are literally all over the place. Of the thirteen most recent polls listed on RCP the Obama leads are 13, 7, 4, 6, 12, 5, 9, 11, 1, 4, 10, 1, 8, 5, 14. No one really knows what’s going on. No one knows if all the young voters that Obama registered will turn out. No one knows how many of the ACORN registrants are actually legit. No one knows how many moderate white Democrats, especially women, will actually vote for Obama.
I have a hard time seeing VA, NC, IN, MN, FL, etc. favoring Obama. I realize that CO and VA have both been trending more Democrat in recent years, but I don’t think they’re liberal enough to vote for the most liberal Democrat presidential candidate ever, if McCain and the GOP could just explain Obama’s socialist extremism to the voters.
Many Republicans are buying all the media’s hype and are very discouraged about the election. I don’t think we should be. This race is far form over, and McCain and Plain are both fighters who won’t give in until every poll is closed, or even after.
It all comes down to the fact that the GOP and Christians have to get out there and make it happen. The GOP’s GOTV effort is well-established, professional, volunteer-driven, and proven for many elections now, while the Democrat strategy is relatively new and based on strong-arm tactics by unions, “community organizers†like ACORN’s criminal employees, paying workers, etc.
