Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for the Lib Dems

Remember kids the Lib Dems don't care whether you vote yes or no in today's elections, they only care how many of their colleagues fail to get elected. The best way to punish the Lib Dems in Scotland is to ensure they come in fifth behind the Greens.

However, one question that will be much discussed in the coming days as the Lib Dem stretcher bearers take away the remains of their fallen comrades is... will Nick Clegg, the most hated political leader in the UK, resign as leader of his party?

Well, the answer is no, because his sort never go quietly - but the New Statesman does have a very handy pull out section from the Lib Dem rules on how to get rid of the leader. The important section is as follows;

"(e) a vote of no confidence in the Leader being passed by a majority of all
Members of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons;

"(f) the receipt by the President of a requisition submitted by at least 75 Local
Parties (including for this purpose, the Specified Associated Organisation or
Organisations representing youth and/or students) following the decision of a
quorate general meeting; "

Well, (e) seems very unlikely but I wonder about (f)... after an election that's more than bruising up and down the country the question is will the yellow grassroots continue to put up with Clegg's leadership?

It's unlikely that anything can save the party from its inevitable destruction now, despite the resilience of the activists in a very hostile political environment. They do still have a choice though. Go out with honour, by their own hand, or be suffocated in the night, unnoticed and despised.

Election countdown: a random round-up

Just a few interesting bits and bobs from the Scottish elections today.

• A Labour MP has been issuing leaflets saying that the "Tories bite off babies' heads". Possibly a bit too much in the genteel world of Scottish politics. Although Labour had no comment the publisher said "I apologise if it has damaged the Tories' chances of winning a seat in the south of Glasgow". Cheeky beggar.

• Someone highlighted this piece of feminist cultural analysis the smurfette principle about the tokenism of cartoons that have a load of men and one woman who is essentially a servant (Madame Cholet and Smurfette we're looking at you). It wasn't long before some wag had to mention the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon... oh dear.

• For Greens in Scotland a little talked about problem is how to vote on the constituency list, as the Greens are only standing on the regional, proportional representation list. I'm bound to secrecy as to how I used my vote (well, until 10 pm) but others have opted to spoil theirs.

From Transform Scotland

• Adam at Bright Green has a round-up of how to vote in the devolved assemblies and parliaments.
  
  
• Patrick Harvie has the honour of blogging at Better Nation who have been phenomenal during the election. If there was a gold star award for Holyrood blogging Better Nation, and Jeff in particular, would win it hands down (read the predictions of Malc and Jeff for last minute pointless but fascinating speculation that look good for the Greens).
  
  
• My predictions? Pretty boring really... SNP victory, Lib Dems do badly, Greens increase our representation. I don't think there's going to be much off beam today. I think Galloway is very unlikely to be elected, it's possible Margo MacDonald does not retain her seat, but thoughts of Iain Gray losing his personal seat or a breakthrough for a party not represented in Holyrood last time are nothing more than wishful thinking in my view. We'll see soon enough!
  
  
• Ideas of Civilisation has an interesting post on the downside of winning the Holyrood election.
  
  
• And not to forget They owe us a living on education, LPW on 'the trump', Bella Calendonia's thoughtful piece on liminal moments

When are the results in?

• AV results in: between 8pm and 10pm on Friday and will be announced regionally.
• English Council election result in: through the night starting at 11.30 am and into Friday. Some councils will only *start* counting on Friday.
• Leiceister South by-election: Friday evening.
• Welsh Assembly results in: should be done by Friday 'breakfast'.
• N. Ireland results in: the results will be declared by 5pm Saturday (!)
  
• Holyrood results in: from 2.30am we'll start to see constituency results, from 6am we'll see the first list results full results.

Last thoughts on AV and Nick Griffin

Although the unofficial YES to AV campaign has improved the quality of argument in the last couple of weeks, allowing me to warm to the idea of a YES vote somewhat (see Gary, Nan, Alan, Luke and Matt) the "You can't vote the same way as Nick Griffin" argument still persists despite being a) extremely insulting to label most of the nation fascists if they don't agree with you on AV and b) being a way of giving this figure of little public significance a central role in the election.

Child killer Jon Venables is voting YES today because he thinks it will boost the chances of the far right winning seats, but you wont see anyone telling YES people they must agree with a Nazi child killer though will you? No. Because it's a facile argument based on fear and loathing not political analysis.

Grown ups will be voting YES or NO today based on which system they prefer. However there have been some serious attempts to bully people into voting one way or the other or just appeal to people on tribal grounds.

Some Labour MPs have been arguing that there would be slightly less Labour MPs under AV (which is actually not a permanent fact, despite the case that it would have been true at the last election). That's not a great reason to postpone democracy though, is it? Nor is it an argument that's likely to persuade people who don't care how many MPs Labour has.

Likewise other Labour MPs have been arguing that people should vote YES because David Cameron is voting NO. As poor arguments go this has to be one of the worst. If the YES campaign wants to win the referendum it *has to* have a large proportion of Tory voters vote YES, but instead of trying to split away Tory voters from the official line it has actually spent time trying to cement them to their leader by touting the argument that YES to AV is an anti-Tory vote.

Seeing as the Tories won more votes than any other party at the last election that's a big demographic to deliberately alienate.While supporters of Greens, Lib Dems and Labour (marginally) will have a majority of YES voters the massive weight of NO votes from the Tories will almost certainly deliver a defeat for the referendum.It's not even true to say that AV is anti-Tory as AV in Australia has served the right very well indeed delivering a sterile two party system.


Whether the lessons will have been learned about how half measures can fail where real reform might have succeeded I don't know. I certainly do hope that the lesson that you don't put Lib Dems in charge of political campaigns has been learned as the insufferable whining, hectoring and dishonesty coming from the official YES campaign has done much to set back the chances of a YES vote.

Some notes from other places: Green Christian on how AV might effect politics, Stumbling and Mumbling on where AV could lead, Deborah Orr on how the Lib Dems are dolts, Left Foot Forward has a newspaper roundup and Tom Clark compares reform to playing cards.

Holyrood Election Advent: Today's the day!

Holyrood Election Advent: One day to go

A few highlights from the Scottish election

I thought I'd round up a few of the interesting things (well, interesting to me) that have been happening in the Scottish elections.

Robin Harper, Steen Parish and an owl

In the office sweep stake I'm going to need us to get nine MSPs to win the kitty. I'm ever the optimist but that might be taking it a little too far... even if STV seem to think it's possible.

• This week the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has donated £500 to the campaign to get Patrick Harvie elected in Glasgow.
  
  John Duffy, Scottish Secretary of the FBU, said: "Patrick has consistently recognised the importance of the fire and rescue service throughout the last session of Parliament. He is also very aware of the value of high quality public services and we look forward to working with him to protect those services over the coming years."
  
  
• I was tickled by one restaurant's menufesto voting which includes an explanation of AV and a potentially controversial fish dish chosen by the local Green candidate.
  
  
• As the years go on I'm becoming ever more skeptical that any election rules are actually enforced. However local Lib Dem candidate Pringle has been forced to pulp his leaflets over accidentally describing himself as an MSP even though, technically, he ceased to be one a few weeks ago. Despite his Lib Dem status I rather pity the guy.
  
  
• Red under the bed explains why he'll be voting Green this time.
  
  
• There haven't been many shenanigans this election, but this twitter hoax against Labour was disgraceful, and rather funny.
  
  
• Better Nation has been indispensable to any election geek this election but Jeff's post on how the constituency votes fit with the regional list votes is glorious. It's extraordinary but under the current system votes in the PR list often do not end up electing anyone from a major party at all. In these areas your vote is often best placed for the Greens who will make full use of it!
  
  This table, produced by Jeff, shows the previous elections and the regions where parties did not get anyone elected on the list ballot paper.
  
  
   
  
  
• My predictions for the election are pretty pedestrian - crash and burn for the Lib Dems, a slight increase for the Tories and a slump for Labour as their votes flow to the SNP. I'm not making any predictions for the Greens though... that way lies madness.

Most of the election I've been tucked away in a darkened room but I did get out the other day only to see Alex Salmond get off a London train with two handlers both of whom were struggling under tons of bags as the big man strode joyfully unburdened through the station. Ah, the privileges of power.

Congratulations to Elizabeth May, Canada's first Green MP

Elizabeth May, the leader of the Canadian Greens has won their first ever Parliamentary seat defeating a long-standing cabinet minister.

Having run an innovative campaign, including a series of attack ads against attack ads, and running a ruthlessly targeted strategy. May won an incredible 47% of the vote beating her opponent by a full 13%.

Accepting victory she said "I stand here today as the first elected Green member of Parliament in Canadian history... I remain committed, as I've been throughout this campaign, to rejecting the politics of cynicism of fear, to embracing hope and to bringing respect back to our House of Commons."

It was a night of decapitations as Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe both lost their seats. In fact the Liberals lost half their seats and Bloc Quebecois were obliterated going from 49 seats t the last election to just four.

The headline of the  night, of course, is that the Conservatives won an overall majority and it was a historic night for the centre left New Democratic Party which won 103 seats and over 30% of the vote despite never having had more than 43 seats since it started running in elections from 1962.


So, although not quite good news all round, there will be at least three sets of party faithful quaffing champagne until the early hours and beyond - best wishes and love to the Green Party who've had a long hard struggle to get their under First Past the Post.

Update: thought people would like to see the percentages and seats (this is all conducted under First Past the Post). Another good argument for proportional representation (from here);

Holyrood Election Advent: Two days to go

Guest Post: Why People In Favour of PR should vote YES

This is a guest post from Cory Hazelhurst who blogs at the rather excellent Paperback Rioter. He's trying to persuade me to be less ambivalent without realising that ambivalence... well, that's my thing. Good luck to him anyway.

No2AV Yes2PR was launched by David Owen some months ago. Originally the Yes campaign decided not to challenge their arguments at all. This was decided, as I understand it, for two reasons.Firstly, it seemed like a small irrelevance at the time. Secondly, launching this group undermined all the arguments that the No camp were making: that AV would lead to more coalitions, that we need to keep FPTP etc.

Ultimately not challenging this argument has been a mistake (one of many) from the Yes campaign. It's led to many people who want electoral reform either voting No or, like Jim, have been very ambivalent about AV because it's not a proportional system.

Jim has very generously allowed me to write a piece explaining why people in favour of PR should vote Yes on Thursday.

The main argument I've heard against voting Yes on Thursday is that a Yes vote would be a roadblock to further reform. If anything, the opposite is the case.

For evidence that AV could lead to more electoral reform, people need look no further than the Political Studies Association briefing paper on the Alternative Vote. It was compiled by Dr Alan Renwick with the help of many leading political scientists, including Professors John Curtice, Simon Hix and Pippa Norris.
This is what the PSA has to say on the subject:

“It is clear that changing the electoral system is easier where change has already recently happened: the idea of reform is no longer so radical; more people are familiar with the reform options; there are fewer interests vested in the status quo. Four established democracies – France, Italy, Japan, and New Zealand – have introduced major reforms to their national electoral systems in the last thirty years. Two of these – France and Italy have subsequently instituted further major reforms, while Japan passed a further smaller reform, and New Zealand will hold a referendum creating the possibility of another major reform later this year. (p21)”

After changing the voting system in 1991, Italy changed it again two years later and again in 2005. New Zealand held a referendum to change from First Past the Post in 1992, and is holding another referendum asking voters whether they want to change the system later this year.

To say, then, that AV would be a roadblock for reform is completely missing the point. It would actually be a small but significant step towards reform in the future, and make future reform much more likely than a No vote.

Another argument I've heard on the blogosphere is that AV would hold up reform because it makes it harder to change to a proportional system:

“Truly proportional systems such as that Mixed Member, Largest Remainder or D’hont system, simply ask people to express a party preference and then use centrally controlled party lists and / or second tear ‘top-up’ constituencies to allocate seats to parties on a proportional basis. By allowing voters to rank individual candidates AV is actually a step away from these kinds of system.”

This isn't quite right though. AV would be a small but logical step towards something like Single Transferable Vote. After all, AV is STV for single member constituencies. Another logical step would be to lead to something like AV+, as recommended by the Jenkins Commission. This would be a hybrid of a list top-up system and MPs elected by, you guessed it, the Alternative Vote. So AV would still be a step forward to getting any proportional system.

I'm of the view that people should vote Yes simply because AV is a better system. However, even if you would prefer a more radical change than AV, vote Yes on Thursday, because that's the only way you're going to get it.

Current Scottish Polls

Yesterday's Scotsman has published this latest poll from YouGov. Obviously we'll have to wait for Friday to find out how close their seat project is to reality. Poll

Constituency vote

SNP: 42%
Lab: 34%
Con: 12%
Lib: 7%

Regional vote

SNP: 35%
Lab: 33%
Con: 12%
Grn: 7%
Lib: 6%

Seat projection for

SNP: 54
Lab: 47
Con: 14
Grn: 8
Lib: 5

Holyrood Election Advent: Three days to go

Holyrood Election Advent: Four days to go

Guest Post: Steven Agnew on the Green election campaign in the North of Ireland

Steven Agnew, leader of the Greens in the North of Ireland kindly sent me this on the shape of the election campaign there, the Green New Deal and prospects for the future.

The Green Party recognises that in these harsh financial times what we need is Economy for People and Planet.

Resources are stretched and we have to prioritise spending on areas that meet a number of policy objectives. There is no sense in squandering money on projects that may be good economically but environmentally damaging.

Equally we should not be pushing environmental policies that are not good for people. The Green Party benchmarks all its policies on whether they are good for the economy, good for people and good for the environment. We believe government should be doing the same.

In the last Assembly with one MLA the Green Party was able to get cross party support for the ambitious Green New Deal programme. If fully implemented the Green New Deal will provide thousands of jobs while helping to tackle fuel poverty and combat climate change. We need a strong Green Party presence in the next Assembly to ensure the vision of the Green New Deal is realised.

To achieve this, our first objective in the next Assembly term must be to see that the current budget is scrapped and rewritten.

The Green Party opposed the cuts budget in both Westminster and in the Assembly. As it stands the Northern Ireland budget will see our public sector decimated and result in massive job losses. It is not a budget borne out of economic necessity but one that is driven by political ideology. As was clear from Peter Robinson’s speech yesterday, this budget is about slashing the public sector to make way for increased privatisation.

Public services must be provided on the basis of need, not on profitability.

This is a budget which has been supported by the DUP, Sinn Fein and the Alliance Party. The opposition that comes from the UUP and SDLP has more to do with political opportunism than from having any real alternative vision. The Green Party is the only viable alternative to the decimation of our public sector.

In this manifesto we propose that we mutualise Northern Ireland Water and put a moratorium on the building of new roads so that an extra £1.5billion would be available for front line services such as health and education and to fully fund the Green New Deal insulation scheme.

What the current budget offers is a Green New Deal pilot scheme. Why do we need a pilot when we know that invested in insulation creates jobs, reduces home heating bills and reduces carbon emissions? By insulating 500,000 homes we can provide employment for up to 15,000 people.

In the next Assembly we will oppose plans to increase fees for students that would see our young people burdened with crippling debt – this is an unacceptable price for university education which benefits our whole society. I myself have a £16,000 debt from my university days. I will not condemn the next generation of students to the burden of debts of up to £40,000.

The other parties are happy to blame Westminster for the cuts to higher education funding - we will not let them hide behind this smokescreen

We need to Invest in NI. We need to invest in our young people and in the small local businesses which are the backbone of our economy. Small businesses are being ignored by an economic policy that seeks the quick fix of Foreign Direct Investment. Other parties want to gamble with our economy. They are proposing putting £300million of our money on the corporation tax cut in the hope of landing the FDI jackpot. We entice these companies in with huge grants and the promise of cheap labour and lax environmental regulations. However they soon leave again once the money has dried up – taking their profits with them.

Instead we should be protecting the businesses we have and helping them to grow. We need to build the economy from the ground up to ensure that it is sustainable and resilient in times of global economic uncertainty.

The Green Party enters these elections in better shape than ever. Our European election result showed our vote had trebled in the space of five years. In these elections we are looking to translate that growth of support into seats in the Assembly and in local councils. We have young candidates that can bring a breath of fresh air to Northern Ireland politics and the experience and expertise of Green Parties across the globe to draw upon. While others dwell in the past it is the Green Party that has the vision for a brighter future.

Holyrood Election Advent: Five days to go

The other Wedding stories

• Met Police issue statement which includes: "Let me make it clear. This is a day of celebration, joy and pageantry for Great Britain. Any criminals attempting to disrupt it - be that in the guise of protest or otherwise - will be met by a robust, decisive, flexible and proportionate policing response...
  
  "We have been working closely with officers investigating recent demonstrations in London and as you are aware bail conditions have been imposed on over 60 arrested people, including that they will not be allowed to enter [central] London on the day of the wedding.
  
  "I can also confirm that as part of the investigation into the TUC demonstration and the subsequent disorder that took place, since 18 April six people have been arrested for a range of offences. The work of the investigation team continues and as you would have seen over the last few days further images of people we would like to speak to have been released to the media."
  
  
• There have been a number of 'pre-crime' arrests by the police whose powers appear to be out of control.
  
  
• This includes three Republican street performers. Arrested for planning to say we should live in a modern democratic republic. Wow.
  
  
• A Cambridge activist who was planning to voice dissent peacefully.
  
  
• Seven arrests in Hove.
  
  
• And more disturbances in Bristol around the Tesco-ification of the town.
  
  
• There is a fair pay for Royal Cleaners campaign from the union PCS.
  
  
• There was a not the Royal wedding street party in Red Lion Square as well as a number of similar events organised by different organisations up and down the country.
  
  
• Today is also the day that a swathe of radical facebook groups have been purged from the site in one fell swoop.
  
  
• Meanwhile Bright Green are crowd sourcing any bad news that might get buried today under the avalanche of Wedding ephemera.

Holyrood Election Advent: Six days to go

Independent YES campaigners

While the official YES campaign has been piss poor from the beginning, others inclined towards voting yes but understandably frustrated by the official campaign have begun to produce their own materials, and who can blame them?

Take this wonderful example of cat / geeking / political propaganda combo. What could be finer?



In a similar vein the coffee / beer image doing the rounds is a thousand times more convincing as an explanation than anything the yes campaign has produced, relying on that tired combo of moaning about the other side whilst talking a load of bollocks.

It really takes some chutzpah to insinuate everyone thinking of voting no was somehow a bit like Nick Griffin or that tactical voting would be abolished or that a winning candidate has to get more than 50% of the votes cast to win (which doesn't attract me anyway even if it was true, which it isn't). But let's not pretend that no campaigners have been pure as the driven snow, as this Australian blogger points out, I'm juust a bit tired of hearing yessers claim the no side are always lying without ever acknowledging the yes camp has continually made factually untrue statements.

Incidentally, I really wish that both sides would stop exclusively using examples where someone who did not come first under the first preferences wins the final round. Although the purpose of AV is to introduce exactly such a possibility it is in fact normally the first placed candidate who wins. AV doesn't actually change that much and both camps have together created an impression that the second placed candidate (or even third placed, or lower) would win quite often, which a lot of people don't like the idea of.

It's exactly the exaggerated claims on both sides that have been such a turn off, as web of evil so brilliantly satirises. There are thoughtful things to say about AV (see for example Keith Flett, Hilary Wainwright, Gowers) or simply fun and funky things to say - but the Yes campaign just didn't want to say them.

The abolition of the dire Lib Dem bar charts would be a welcome advantage of AV but the Lib Dem staffed yes to AV campaign doesn't seem keen to highlight this advantage.

Personally one of the strongest arguments for AV is the undermining of tribalism in politics. I would love to see the end of the idea that if you like one party you must want all the others to expire. Only the most tedious party zealot thinks such things. If you don't have preferences between a specific Labour, Green, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory candidate in a constituency, for example, then I suspect your brain may have been replaced by a fossil and you're little use to anyone.

A politics without such firm borders between parties would, I think, be more honest, more thoughtful and more habitable for those people without the 'my way or the highway' instinct of many career activists. AV at least encourages us to think more in shades and nuance than the black and white of the us and them. That's partly why so many Labour people will be voting no trained as they are to regard their voters as their property by right.

At the end of the day there are good reasons to vote either way, and bad ones. A vote for or against because you think it might favour your party in the next election is a pretty vacuous and unprincipled reason to choose a system that we'll be using for decades to come, just as punishing either Clegg or Cameron when both care far more about how many of their party colleagues are elected on May 5th seems a bit pointless. A vote for or against because of how shit either campaign has been is also a pretty bad reason to decide when really the choice is between two, similar, electoral systems regardless of who their advocates are.

I'm glad to see more optimistic and fun messages coming out from the yes side, particularly after that dreadful TV ad where wankers with megaphones stood and hectored people about stuff AV would do fuck all about. I'm also glad the yes campaign have stopped their damn whining about the no camp having suddenly realised that it's the electorate they need to be thinking about, not their rivals.

At least the last week of campaigning might actually throw up some more laughs and real discussion, something that had been sadly lacking in the first months of the campaign. It's a shame most people will have gone to sleep on the subject by now.

Selected items

In the absence of any coverage of the Royal Wedding (I mean this is important! Why aren't the papers covering it?) we have some selected items from the internet;

• CORRECTION: I previously said that this was the Welsh Greens election broadcast, but in fact it was a a web info-film on the how the voting works. Still lovely, but the actual broadcast is completely different. The greedy beggars have got two great election films under their belt.
  
  
• Two new Green bloggers; Hearts and Mines, and Green Politics Sustainable Futures.
  
  
• Monsters and Critics look at the pragmatic new German Green premier.
  
  
• The end of Communism in West Bengal. From Pickled Politics.
  
  
• Socialist Unity have a shocking transcript of some Lib Dem telephone canvassing.
  
  
• And finally after the great union march against the cuts Martin Wicks asks where we go now?

Holyrood Election Advent: Seven days to go

Green Policy on the monarchy

I thought people might be interested in the official policy of the Green Party of England and Wales towards the monarchy.

• No person should acquire the right to any office of government by inheritance.
• The monarchy should cease to be an office of government. The legislative, executive and judicial roles of the monarch should cease.
• Peers and members of the royal family should have the same civil rights and fiscal obligations as other citizens.
• We think a settlement of property held by the current royal family should be made, to divide it between that required for the private life of current members of the family and that to be public property.

No guillotines it seems, just pay your taxes and get your nose out of government.