Lydia Hislop: Sacre to strike
Lydia Hislop brings the Road To Cheltenham to a crescendo with her final words for the remaining days of the Festival.
Day Two: Ladies' Day
Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle
Yanworth's task suddenly became a whole lot harder with news from the markets than Yorkhill runs here rather than in the Supreme. This late switch, into the race I've long argued (but not bet - grrr) would suit him better, says to me that Yorkhill has been greatly pleasing his connections of late. His prize is the presence of Walsh in his saddle.
That's great news for the race, making it less of a coronation and more of a contest. But otherwise, at this pre-declaration time of writing, it remains inchoate with a series of other Mullins-trained horses potential defectors to the Albert Bartlett - including Long Dog and Bleu Et Rouge.
It's not impossible A Toi Phil could also make that leap but if he stays here, this progressive horse moves as though open to further improvement on a likely sounder surface and seems to be maturing fast, after a shaky start. The best-odds aspect of this column's existing bet at least caters for the addition of his stable companion to the line-up to some degree.
Selections:
A Toi Phil: already advised 09/03/16 at 7/1 NRNB BOG
RSA Chase
This race is priced as a match between More Of That and No More Heroes but they're no price if it is and I suspect it's more complicated than that.
The former's price owes much to his World Hurdle success but that's two years ago now and his jumping will be more severely scrutinised here than against a sum total of eight rivals in two novice chases to date. His technique wasn't so fluent as to be taken as gospel.
The form of No More Heroes is more substantial but was established on deep ground. He didn't look particularly malleable when third in the Albert Bartlett and that was conducted on good-to-soft on times. You do need thorough stamina for an RSA, however. Of the top two, I'm keener on him but unexcited by his odds.
Ryan Hatch reported on Saturday that the endlessly-game Blaklion had come out of his Towton slog in good order but it remains a background concern that he flopped in last year's Albert Bartlett after a similarly hard race in the River Don - and he'd had a week longer to recover then.
If Seeyouatmidnight jumps as he did when beating Blaklion at Cheltenham (when in receipt of 3lbs) in January, taking off a fraction sooner than you might expect, then he'll run well. He handled quicker conditions when seventh in last year's World Hurdle but he made errors at Newcastle last time and his trainer's talk of ever-decreasing targets was unnerving.
In the likely conditions, Vyta Du Roc might just have the blend of speed and stamina that's required. A bar-room brawler, he landed the last blow when winning the Reynoldstown (in which Minella Rocco was flattered to finish so close) after looking comfortable at pace over a new, longer trip.
His jumping is good, he likes the track, is proven in faster conditions - he would have been second in last year's Neptune bar for kissing the dirt at the last - and is steadily improving over fences. Le Mercurey was conceding 7lbs at Ascot, but his hopes get fainter as the ground dries out whereas Vyta Du Roc's improve.
Roi Des Francs is interesting, re-routed by Gigginstown from the NH Chase. He beat Pont Alexandre on merit at Naas last time and seemed to handle typical Festival conditions when a staying-on third in last year's Martin Pipe.
Selection:
Native River: advised at 25/1 [01/12/15] and, if not backed already, at 33/1 [30/12/15]; non-runner
Vyta Du Roc: already advised [04/03/16] at 12/1
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
If all goes well, this could be the tactical spectacle of the week. The spontaneous pincer movement of free-rolling Special Tiara and revivified Sprinter Sacre pouring it on from the top of the hill should take Un De Sceaux to places he's never been before.
Walsh won't be able to control the race, as he did in the Arkle last year, and his mount's jumping will be closely examined at all stages. But I'm heterodox when it comes to this horse. I think he's a fine-margin jumper with a largely sound technique. But I don't think his achievements to date put him that far clear of even Sprinter Sacre's current form.
Drying conditions enhance the 2013 hero's chances and trainer Henderson, who has been notably accurate on such dispatches, has enthused about his recent preparations. Sprinter Sacre has shown verve and grit this season, winning in two different ways - suggesting he's a far more robust proposition than this time last year, when his challenge petered out with a whimper.
In short, I think he might win and the 5/1 available is generous.
Felix Yonger in the 'without' market offers a strong back-up position, given this horse seems better than ever this season, likes a sound surface, stays further and is likely to be coming on strong at the finish.
Sire De Grugy is held by Un De Sceaux and Sprinter Sacre, blinkered or not, and with no significant rain forecast. Titleholder Dodging Bullets will need to be better than last year but his belated return signaled the opposite, even if he comes on for it. Special Tiara's chances are likely to be compromised by Un De Sceaux, provided both stand up, whatever Noel Fehily opts to do. God's Own briefly threatened in last year's Arkle but this looks tougher.
Sizing Granite is the relatively unknown quantity, on his first start for new trainer Colm Murphy (who won this race with Big Zeb in 2010), but his preferred faster ground will need to bring about a transformation.
Selection:
Sprinter Sacre: already advised [30/12/15] at 4/1 NRNB
Felix Yonger: already advised [09/03/16] each-way at 7/1 NRNB BOG 'Without Un De Sceaux'
Day Three: St Patrick's Thursday
JLT Novices' Chase
With Garde La Victoire having already been directed towards this race rather than the Arkle and Black Hercules set to gravitate here from the RSA, NH Chase or America's Cup, the JLT betting could look very different on Thursday morning. Whoever turns up to play, Bristol De Mai still deserves to be favourite.
The youngest chaser in the field, he is also the most experienced with six starts and four wins. He jumps particularly well, handles a variety of ground and looks likely to be well suited by the demands of Cheltenham - which will be new to him. However, for whatever reason, he doesn't capture the popular imagination and I suspect he'll drift to an attractive price on Thursday.
Only Ar Mad has beaten him in warm blood; since Garde La Victoire got the better of him on their debuts in October, Bristol De Mai's jumping technique has become polished whereas the winner's has remained tarnished by a tendency to jump too low. Garde La Victoire took time to warm up at easy Ludlow last time; the quick first fence of the JLT will allow him no such luxury.
The inexplicable fall of Black Hercules - an unforced error - bothers me, even though he jumped well (albeit mostly unhassled on the lead) at Warwick; last-time fallers have a dreadful record at the Festival. He also has one good and one bad run at Cheltenham to date.
Stablemate Outlander is much more interesting, having taken to fences well and arriving here after a career-best Grade One triumph at Leopardstown. He received a trailerpark-girl ride when a better-than-this sixth in a steadily run Neptune last year. He looks capable of far better.
It's possible L'Ami Serge will be better suited by the galloping New Course than he was by the Old Course in last year's Supreme. But it could be that he needs more testing ground than seems likely and/or a shrink.
Zabana will need to jump better than when fourth behind Outlander last time; better ground might well help him do that. Drying conditions are an unknown forThree Musketeers but his Newbury success was likeable and I'm inclined to accept the excuses for his last-time flop.
Selections:
Killultagh Vic: advised [12/01/16] at 14/1 - non-runner [injured]
Bristol De Mai: back on Thursday morning BOG
Outlander: back on Thursday morning BOG
Ryanair Chase
The jungle drums beating late on Monday night were proved correct and Vautour runs, as does Road To Riches. The latter's participation may be much to the chagrin of trainer Noel Meade, but followers of this column are in fair shape. Bryan Cooper, his jockey, could ride him positively - just not so relentlessly positively as last time, eh? - in the knowledge Road To Riches handles track and ground and stays further.
Valseur Lido is also a threat now redirected here, but his slick jumping of last season seems to have grown guessy.
Al Ferof has the best form but must prove he can bring it on occasions other than his seasonal debut. He has had a break since Christmas but is the senior at this party.
Former stablemate Vibrato Valtat was redirected here when clearly being held at two miles. It's a logical move but his stamina is not guaranteed and he shouldn't be good enough. Josses Hill jumped better in this tempo of race last time, but he was also bossing a small field from the front so his long-standing jumping problems have not necessarily been schooled away.
Taquin Du Seuil beat last year's Ryanair winner, Uxizandre, in the previous season's JLT and was a supplementary addition here. He plays the role of Lazarus here, having been reported as out for the season after requiring an operation to insert a screw in his off-hind fetlock last November but recovering far more quickly than Jonjo O'Neill's vet had anticipated.
He'd probably need a weakened contest to play a major role. But neither Village Vic nor Smashing quite look good enough in any scenario.
Selection:
Road To Riches: already advised [30/12/15] at 16/1
Ryanair World Hurdle
After a serenely progressive season, Thistlecrack seems to have all bases covered here. He has taken the requirements for this division to a higher peg than that set by Cole Harden in winning this race last year and may not yet have displayed the summit of his ability.
Although his best form is currently on testing ground, his form of last spring suggests he is versatile on that count and his latest success in the Cleeve out to bed the one remaining doubt about this track. There are also no bells or whistles Tom Scudamore needs add to this a straightforward ride.
On their Sefton encounter of last April, Alpha Des Obeaux deserves to be second favourite, having pressed him more than others have managed this season albeit that he was held when coming down at the last. He has also developed into a convincing stayer and will line up as Ireland's chief hope.
Cole Harden's case rests on the confidence of Warren Greatrex. He was clearly the best in this race last year following an interrupted preparation that required a late breathing operation. This time around, his trainer has set the agenda by tweaking his respiratory tracts early on and then framing his season solely around the defence of his Festival title.
Greatrex maintains his horse's literal form this term has not deviated from his expectations - which is lucky, because it's not literally good enough. Until proved otherwise, however, I'm taking Greatrex at his word and expect Cole Harden to run well - hence this column's each-way position.
Saphir Du Rheu is held by last year's World Hurdle form. Drying conditions will suit the winner as much as him and, even if his breathing operation helps, plans to attack the superior stayer sooner this year are likely to see him beaten further.
Stablemate Aux Ptit Soins is priced on reputation after his Coral Cup success on his UK debut this time last year. A season of setbacks and surgery, combined with unproven stamina, makes him an unappealing option.
I succumbed to the academic case for Whisper this time last year and he ran better than he had all season, before peaking at Aintree next time. This year his form is even worse and yet Henderson has repeatedly told us he's been happier with him. That dampens enthusiasm for the camp's recent upbeat reports even if the horse is certainly good enough to play an each-way role.
Kilcooley is officially rated co-second best in this field with Cole Harden and Whisper, 4lbs behind Thistlecrack, but languishes at 20/1 following an interrupted preparation and arguable preference for cut. He could well out-run his price. But last year's Albert Bartlett winner, Martello Tower, likely faces quicker conditions and does not seem to have built on that form.
Selections:
Snow Falcon: advised [09/03/16] at 33/1 NRNB BOG - non-runner
Cole Harden: already advised [10/03/16] at 8/1 each-way NRNB
Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle
There is high Mullins confidence behind Limini and that's not to be messed with lightly but, good though her engine clearly is, she's got a set of hurdles to negotiate at pace in a larger field than she will have hitherto encountered.
Given her jumping isn't the best - and connections clearly know this, given they sent her to a schooling race - she's worth taking on in these circumstances at the price she is.
Especially when there's a rival as substantial as Smart Talk ranged against her. Brian Ellison was clearly toying with taking on more experienced mares in the David Nicholson because she held an entry in that Grade One until Sunday's declaration stage, but this is the more suitable target.
Simply put, here she has demonstrably the best form yet is second favourite - and by some margin still, at 6/1. Paddy Brennan can ride her positively over this shorter trip rather than eke out her stamina over 2m4f. She's also proven on better ground. If you haven't already, get on. You can even back her each-way!
Selections:
Smart Talk: already advised [04/03/16] at 7/1 NRNB BOG
Day Four: Gold Cup Day
JCB Triumph Hurdle
At last, Ivanovich Gorbatov has started to drift again after maintaining an unlikely position as Triumph Hurdle favourite in recent weeks. He was beaten on merit by Footpad and Let's Dance last time out at Leopardstown, not jumping at all well.
Perhaps better ground will help in that department but it was testing when he made his more convincing debut. Given his temperament became something of an issue on the Flat (albeit his form continued to progress), it wouldn't be surprising to see headgear applied on Friday. The occasion could blow his mind anyway.
Footpad sets the Irish standard - Mullins is also convinced of that - and will enjoy the strong pace likely to be provided. Better ground will probably suit as well. Stablemate Let's Dance is worth marking up because she was gamely rallying at the death despite having forced a fierce pace with Jer's Girl in that same race.
Zubayr's lofty position in the market seems to owe plenty to his near-identical profile to 2011 winner, Zarkandar: Aga Khan-bred, lightly raced on the Flat in France, with Paul Nicholls, won the Adonis on his hurdling debut. His connections are confident he can improve for the run but it was an odd race that he won and he will be inexperienced for such a large field.
The best piece of British form is the Finesse Hurdle won by Protek Des Flos, in which Clan Des Obeaux and Who Dares Wins may have pressed on too soon and rendered themselves vulnerable to a closer.
I'm still not sure which way to interpret that race but I think all three have a chance: the winner because he might just be the biggest raw talent in the race (he wasn't knocked about to get there), Clan Des Obeaux because he did best of the duelists and Who Dares Wins because he was conceding weight all round, wasn't beaten far and should be better on a sounder surface.
If conditions were to really dry out, Clan Des Obeaux would be disadvantaged but Noel Fehily is a positive booking and we've got the horse at a good price. Ditto Protek Des Flos, who is still finally to be committed to this race despite winning again since Cheltenham.
Henderson, his trainer, is keener on Consul De Thaix - third in the Finesse when shaping like a stayer. He mentioned, significantly, that it was only that horse's second start over hurdles that day - as it was for the winner, Protek Des Flos, and second, Clan Des Obeaux, which wasn't mentioned.
In other trainer beliefs, Paul Nicholls keeps plugging Frodon, even though the way the race panned out at Haydock last time couldn't have been better designed to beat a stayer like Fixe Le Kap.
Connetable is likeably tough and should run well - as will Sceau Royal, who jumps neatly and has learned how to finish off a race. But I like our position and I'm sticking with it. Were Protek Des Flos to be withdrawn, I'd have a saver on Footpad.
Selection:
Clan Des Obeaux: already advised [22/12/15] at 25/1
Protek Des Flos: already advised [04/03/16] at 16/1 NRNB
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Barters Hill makes me smile and worry - at the moment, in unequal measure and, happily, the former is currently in the ascendency. I love the cussed way he finds more and more, especially when a smooth traveller ranges up alongside only to be dashed on his rocks. I fret that this hard style of racing does not make for longevity, though.
He is currently unbeaten and the rightful favourite for this event but in Shantou Village he faces a fellow toughie, open to further improvement now he's stepped up to three miles. His second to Yanworth in January, shaping like a thorough stayer, looks good enough even on first glance given how the form has worked out.
But trainer Neil Mulholland reckons a sounder surface will bring out even better - to the extent that any rain would make the horse a doubtful participant.
I'm suggesting backing him each-way hopefully with 4 places on the day because this looks a strong edition of this race and it could yet get stronger, with some credible potential Neptune defectors such as Bleu Et Rouge and Long Dog. Both merit respect wherever they pitch up.
The vibes from the Mullins yard have been strong of late for Gangster - a half-brother to the Ascot Gold Cup winner, Rite Of Passage, he did have a small setback some time ago, so this positivity is likely to be significant.
He's certainly got progressive form, culminating in a good win at Fairyhouse last December when jumping soundly but perhaps hinting that left-handed Cheltenham would suit even more. If Shantou Village were to miss this race for any reason, Gangster would be an able deputy.
Stablemate Up For Review allegedly caught the chills that were multiplying among the small string Mullins sent over to Doncaster by ferry in January, explaining away his poor effort in his trainer's mind. However, he's not yet proven on a sound surface and ran poorly in last year's Festival Bumper.
Harry Fry has been nudged in the direction of this race, rather than the Pertemps, for Unowhatimeanharry by dint of the fact his horse boasts the highest official rating in the field. The reassuring solidity of handicap form in novice company is a positive; weigh that against this thoughtful trainer's gut instinct to duck the Grade One.
Selection:
Shantou Village: back each-way after the declarations on Thursday evening in the hope that some firms will offer 4 places
Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
Why is it taking Walsh so long to choose between Vautour and Djakadam, I wondered on Monday. Now we know.
For those already holding an ante-post voucher on Djakadam, it's good news that Walsh is on board because he got him jumping beautifully in a strongly run edition of the Gold Cup when second last year. That's the best form in this year's race, in my opinion.
Better ground and his greatest stamina test yet is the basis for arguing Don Poli can leave behind his unimpressive Lexus victory in this event. I'm sure both of these things will help because he shaped like a future Gold Cup winner when winning the RSA in characteristically idiosyncratic fashion: going from being in trouble to running all over his rivals in a few strides.
Bryan Cooper riding this horse would be the better fit for Gigginstown, in my opinion, because Don Poli takes some knowing and some belief. He hasn't let Cooper down yet - but this is by far the toughest assignment of his career.
I have come to be against Don Cossack, even though I think he was coming to win the King George when falling two out. He might well not have handled Kempton but he's morphed into a generally poor traveller in his races - a trait he did not have this time last year.
Back then, it was just the odd poor jump that was the issue. That's still also an issue. It might help were Gigginstown to go with the clean-slate booking of Davy Russell, who's won a Grade One novices' chase on him in the dusty past.
Cue Card is the most solid each-way option, in my book. I think his King George performance indicates he will stay, he's proven at Cheltenham and seems to be a happier horse now that he can breathe more easily following an operation on a trapped epiglottis and his move to an new airy stabling block. You can even see it: his head carriage is lower than of old.
His fellow jockeys have reportedly been teasing Brennan about his ten per cent cut of the potential £1million bonus and he admits it's on his mind. But he has gelled so well with this horse, aiding him to new career heights, that getting on his back will hopefully dissipate such thoughts. There would be no more popular winner - even in my household!
First Theatre Guide's romp at Kempton and then Many Clouds' superb success at Kelso betrayed just how stingy Smad Place's official mark of 169 is, given how he bouncily dismissed them in the BetBright Chase. I don't buy the argument that this bold-jumping grey needs cut to be at his best either.
The presence of On His Own to harry him on the lead is of greater concern but he may well see off that right-jumping veteran at a relatively early stage under the positive tactics to which his jockey, Wayne Hutchinson, is committed. He could surprise a few people here - not least the handicapper.
In conclusion, after prevaricating in a most uncharacteristic manner, I've decided I can't let pass the exact race I've been convinced is Djakadam's for two whole seasons and even wrote about in these columns two years ago. So despite the concern about his jumping, I suggest you back him. But I wouldn't blame you if you chose Cue Card instead. Heck, I'd even cheer for you.
Selections:
Djakadam: back now at 4/1 BOG
Other races:
I tend not to get involved in the Festival's handicaps until I have the final fields - bitter experience has brought me to this point - but in Friday's Johnny Henderson Grand Annual - always my favourite handicap of the week, in a strong field - Sizing Codelco catches my eye. I liked how it put it up to Shaneshill at Naas in January.
He seems capable on a sounder surface and, as a second-season novice, also has a bit more experience than many such types in this race. He also hails from the Henry de Bromhead yard that's long-suited in two-mile chasers and yet he was deemed good enough to be pitched into a Grade One last December (albeit he didn't get very far!).
At a bigger price in the same race, it strikes me that Savello - sixth in last year's Champion Chase - should also go very well. I just prefer the novice.
Selections:
Sizing Codelco: back now at 16/1 each-way
