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Many economists are talking about
China's economic
hard landing, and ongoing economic crisis.
China's Statistic
Bureau said that in the first half of
the year
GDP grew 7.6%. However, this data is questioned by economists.
They say, it does not explain the recent problems of cash
shortage, inflation, the unemployment rate and cash outflow.
In addition, it doesn't comply with stock market and
house price's decline.
It also flies in the face of
Premier Li Keqiang's
Economic plan.
On July15, China's
Statistics Bureau data shows that
in the first half of the year GDP's absolute value reading
of 24.8 trillion yuan (
US$4 trillion), increased 7.6%.
The 2nd quarter
GDP growth slowed to 7.5%.
Xie
Tian, professor at Aiken
Business School of
the
University of South Carolina:"The data isn't reliable.
The
CCP's created surplus flourish doesn't tally with
recent cash shortage, inflation, unemployment,
cash outflow, stock market and housing market problems.
The CCP made up a false GDP, other factors and indicators
do not match with it."
Feng Xingyuan, deputy director of
Beijing Unirule Institute
of Economics told
NTD that
a financial crisis has already started in some areas of
China.
Financial Times editor Xu Jin published an article stating that
China's falling economic growth is common knowledge.
How much of this can Beijing take? it's unclear.
Li Keqiang's worries are unlikely to clear up just by
increasing the popular of his economic plan.
Li Keqiang pledged to shrink the governmental administrative
overload, allowing the market to play a full role,
discarding outdated production methods, and verify the
correct GDP, in order to produce a healthy economic growth.
Wu Yuyin, research fellow of Chung-Hua Institution for
Economic Researcher: "One major drawback in Li Keqiang's
economic plan is that there is no economic stimulus. Just let
it grow.
Growth will decrease faster, the very opposite of past patterns,
one rising, one shrinking. It will slowdown greatly.
According to the latest data, this didn't decline too much,
That's why we doubt it."
On July 9, the data for the
Producer Price Index shows (
PPI),
PPI dropped 2.7%, declining for 16 consecutive months;
while the
Consumer Price Index (
CPI) is rising .
These trends do not meet the price transmission rules.
On July 1, the latest data shows
Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (
PMI) dropped to 50.1, the lowest level in the last 4 months.
On the same day,
HSBC's PMI dropped to 48.2.
That is below the cut-off level of 50 that divides expansion
from contraction, the lowest in the last
9 months.
On July 10, China's trading data shows exports and imports
both dropped in June. Exports fell
3.1% and imports fell 0.7%.
Earlier economists have pointed out that China's
fixed assets investment is seriously imbalanced.
Local debt has greatly accumulated,
facing substantial risk of breaching the contract.
It has dragged down investment, consumption and exports.
Yet domestic consumption is increasingly
worsening each year.
Xie Tian:"The CCP systematically increases statistical
numbers, or doctor the figures.
From the false data I can analyze some of the trends.
We can tell from the latest trends,
the CCP has had to admit that
China's financial crisis is already happening,
we actually talked about it two months ago."
Xia Bin, Counselor of
China's State Council said that
actually China's economic crisis already exists.
What's the reason it hasn't detonated yet?
Because the bad debt is not exposed,
it is covered up by producing more currency.
Xia Bin said that if
China's economy is not dealt with now,
sooner or later something severe will happen.
But, if interfered with too drastically
the bad thing will happen immediately.
On July 11,
Lou Jiwei,
Minister of Finance said
in an interview in
Washington that the authorities this year can accept GDP slowed 6.5%.
Lou added that, they expected GDP's growth will drop to 7%.
Xie Tian: "One possibility is that the current decision-makers
do not want to take the blame for the former leaders.
Under pressure from the outside world,
China's true economy is gradually being exposed,
so that they can distance themselves
from the former leaders."
On July 13, the CCP mouthpiece
Xinhua News Agency
published an
English article;
Lou's saying that the GDP growth of 7%, was modified
to 7.5%, so as to match the figure that was officially released.
Xie Tian:"If the CCP completely exposed its true economy,
people will be surprised and shocked.
It may trigger a political crisis and instability.
《神韵》2013世界巡演新亮点
http://www.ShenYunPerformingArts.org/
- published: 18 Jul 2013
- views: 71