U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Today

Tomorrow

Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 110600 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 110559 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1159 PM CST Thursday Mar 10 2016 


Valid 111200z - 121200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
while organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely...a few strong 
thunderstorms may occur across the central Gulf Coast...and 
potentially also parts of central/East Texas and Southern California 
today. 


... 
With split flow prevalent over the Continental U.S....a persistent 
middle/upper-level low currently over northeast Mexico/south Texas will 
continue to move north-northeastward today. This will be in advance 
of a compact/fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough that will 
move inland across central/Southern California this afternoon and reach the 
lower Colorado River valley late tonight. 


..central Gulf Coast this morning... 
Persistent showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing early today...with 
this convection continuing to reinforce an effective boundary over 
inland areas. This scenario is likely to keep the strongest storms 
focused offshore...although low-level shear will be moderately 
strong and surface-based storms are possible along/south of the 
effective boundary within a relatively moist environment. While a 
brief tornado and/or thunderstorm-related wind gust cannot be 
conclusively ruled out this morning across southern la/far southern 
MS...the overall severe potential currently appears limited. 


..central/East Texas to far western la... 
Across east/northeast Texas and far western la...the environment 
near/east of a weak surface low and adjacent front may at least 
become conditionally supportive of some weak/transient supercell 
structures by this afternoon as low-level shear will be moderately 
strong. That said...considerable uncertainties exist related to 
cloud cover/low-level destabilization...and it appears that 
middle-level subsidence could overspread the region by around peak 
heating. In all...low severe probabilities do not currently appear 
warranted...a notion well-supported by various convection-allowing 
guidance given a relative lack of severe-caliber attributes. 


Farther southwest...in close proximity to the vertically stacked 
upper low...a couple of stronger low-topped thunderstorms could 
develop across parts of central Texas this afternoon. While some small 
hail may be possible...organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely. 


..central/Southern California... 
As the synopsis-described shortwave trough/related frontal band 
moves inland this afternoon...steepening lapse rates/weak buoyancy 
should be conducive for some low-topped thunderstorms...particularly 
for coastal areas of central/Southern California. A couple of stronger 
storms cannot be entirely ruled out along the immediate coast or 
just offshore this afternoon...but the overall severe potential 
currently appears low within a marginal thermodynamic environment. 


.Guyer/picca.. 03/11/2016 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion

000 
acus11 kwns 101736 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 101736 
msz000-101900- 


Mesoscale discussion 0198 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1136 am CST Thursday Mar 10 2016 


Areas affected...central MS 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 101736z - 101900z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...a marginal risk for a few strong wind gusts and a brief 
tornado will exist next couple hours across central MS. A ww is not 
anticipated. 


Discussion...a line of storms is developing eastward around 30 knots across 
central MS...while individual elements within the line move more 
rapidly northeastward at 45 knots. Some organized structures are evident 
including bowing segments and weak meso-vortices. Vwp data show 
impressive deep-layer winds with large hodographs and strong 
effective bulk shear...but buoyancy is very weak with poor lapse 
rates and MLCAPE at or below 500 j/kg. Updrafts are probably still slightly 
elevated...but may become closer to surface based as temperatures rise 
to the middle 70s f. This activity will pose a marginal threat for 
strong wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado into early afternoon. 
Weak buoyancy and low potential for boundary layer heating will 
remain limiting factors. Storms should gradually weaken as they 
approach the MS-Alabama border where low-level moisture is more limited. 


.Dial/Goss.. 03/10/2016 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...Jan...lix... 


Latitude...Lon 31329016 31759035 32419007 33019003 33398975 33348920 
32968880 32098887 31318955 31329016