As
Wall Street's bull market turns 7 years old in the week ahead, analysts say it may have run a little too far and too fast in the last several weeks.
The market is also more likely to be driven by events outside the
U.S. than within in the coming week. There is little U.S. data, with import prices and trade the biggest items. But the
European Central Bank's Thursday meeting has been looming large over world markets for weeks.
Traders expect the central bank to offer a new dose of stimulus and possibly even more negative, negative yields.
There are also
Chinese foreign reserves data Monday, trade data Tuesday and inflation data Thursday, as the Chinese
National People's Congress meets.
China is one of the biggest factors for risk markets in the coming week, and there could be positive headlines on stimulus from the
NPC. "
People don't expect anything that's anything but helpful for risk assets from China this week," said
Alan Ruskin, head of
G-10 currency strategy at
Deutsche Bank.
Stocks were higher for a third week, with the
S&P; 500 finishing at 1,
999, its highest close since early January. The
S&P;, up 2.7 percent for the week, has had its best three-week streak since early December. The S&P; has gained about 10 percent since bottoming on Feb. 11, and is clawing its way back from a peak to trough decline of about 15 percent.
"I think the real story here is the massive jump in stocks in the last three weeks, and the change is probably mostly behind us," said
Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist with
RBC Capital Markets. "It can't keep going crazy like this, but really the story from here is we need volatility to decline. Basically the things that reversed — oil, interest rates, volatility — that whole renormalization. We want it to move forward at a slower pace and in a way that's more systematic."
The market's quick run is showing some signs of exhaustion.
The volume Friday was the highest since Feb. 11. "The risk to being short is probably 20 points to the upside on the S&P; 500, but the risk of initiating new longs here is probably 70 to
100 points to the downside. This is not a good spot to get long, but to probably trim positions into the overbought strength," said
Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com. Redler watches short-term technicals, and he said the market is now overbought by the same amount as it was oversold by when it bottomed on Feb. 11.
On Wednesday, the bull market turns 7, and the S&P; 500 has risen about
200 percent since it plummeted to 676 on March 9, 2009, in the heat of the financial crisis. Just a few weeks ago, pessimism ruled and some traders were betting the S&P; could fall into bear market territory — a 20 percent decline.
"It squeaked by. … The S&P; 500 never got there. It lives to fight another year," said
Russell Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.
Koesterich said he expects the rally to run out of steam in the near term, and while gains should not be large this year, the market can move higher. "We're in the back half of the bull market, and the back half of the bull market is often accompanied by more volatility, but I don't think it's over yet," he said. "I don't think this is going to be a year of double-digit gains. I think people have to have modest expectations of where we are in the bull market. I think you're going to make more money in stocks than cash, and I think the bull market can continue."
A batch of better than expected U.S. data, including Friday's February job gains of 242,
000, has helped dash expectations that the
U.S. economy is heading into recession, and that has helped lift stocks. Also helping was a strong move higher in crude, up more than
4.5 percent for the week.
West Texas International crude futures closed above $35 Friday, a key psychological and technical level traders had been watching.
- published: 05 Mar 2016
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