Black is white and black and white…. March 7, 2016
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There’s no question at all that the Trump candidacy for the Republican Presidential nominee is a phenomenon. One aspect of that that is particularly striking is the manner in which he can say one thing and then deny it and then that has no effect politically whatsoever. I would think that as a political gift this is a bit double-edged, those who now love him may well turn on him when reality intersects with his pronouncements should he become President. That last is still far-fetched. But not so much as it was a month ago. Or half a year ago.
An odd thing for the Taoiseach to say about government formation March 7, 2016
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“We’ve had difficulties like this before… I can’t put a date on that but I am prepared in my capacity as Taoiseach to work for the formation of a government that the government deserve and the people need.”
I’m guessing (hoping) it’s a misquote and he said that “the people deserve and the people need”.
Centenary of the 1916 Rising Political and Cultural Celebration March 7, 2016
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Dublin Baile Átha Cliath
Saturday 12 March, 3 p.m.
Centenary of the 1916 Rising
Political and Cultural Celebration
Music, songs and poetry of the revolutionary period.
Fear an tí: Dr Shane Kenna (author of Jeremiah O’Donovan Rossa: Unrepentant Fenian)
Wynn’s Hotel (Lower Abbey Street)
Organised by Peadar O’Donnell Socialist Republican Forum
Predictions of seat numbers before the election and a further question… March 7, 2016
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…we had them here at the start and and here at the end.
Got to say of those who provided numbers the predictions weren’t bad given the end result…
FG:50, LAB:7 FF:44 SF:23 AAA-PBP:6 SD:3 GP:2 IA:6 IND:17 includes [I4C:4]
EamonnCork’s are here.
Fine Gael 55
Fianna Fail 41
Sinn Fein 25
Independents 17
Labour 10
AAA/PBP 6
Social Democrats 3
Reno 1
IEL’s likewise:
FG 55
Lab 9
FF 37
SF 28
AAAPBP 6
Renua 2
SocDems 3
Inds4Change 3
Ind 14
WUAG 1
jamesmcbarron had these figures which weren’t that far adrift either.
FG 51
Lab 8
FF 37
SF 30
AAAPBP 6
Renua 2
SocDems 3
Inds4Change 3
Ind 17
WUAG 1
Gewerkschaftler was more cautious:
SF will do better than polled with 24-28
FG 50-55
FF 30-35
Labour(sic) 4
AAA/PBP 6
As for the rest – no idea. Hopefully plenty of leftish independents. SDs may surprise.FG/FF will be the only option for ‘stability’ (= further screwing of the poor and welfare for the rich).
In a way the understatement of FF was understandable, LP in a band. Now, the tough one.
What sort of government is about to emerge? If any!
What a difference a week makes… March 7, 2016
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…I’m not one to quote Shane Ross very often but in the course of this column in the Sunday Independent this last weekend he makes some reasonably good points about Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, not least:
The message from the electorate is stunningly obvious: The big-party system has been sent packing. The normal arithmetical parliamentary solution – where two-party blocs gang up against the rest of the Dail – has been dismissed. No longer can any combination of two major parties (except Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) settle down to five years of domination. No longer will democracy die the day a new Taoiseach heads for Aras an Uachtarain. The electorate has dictated that the Dail, not the Cabinet, will now make the key decisions.
Of course that’s not necessarily the way it will pan out.
But he makes an even better point here:
During the election, few voters were convinced by the Taoiseach’s threat that there would be instability if the Independents held their seats. Nor did they swallow the line that he would not talk to Independents about government formation! Nor are Independent TDs impressed by the implied threat that he will call another election if a deal is not reached.
For yes, Kenny did indeed say he would not deal with Independents – this from the 5th of February states that albeit with Kenny’s usual open-endedness.
And now? He surely will if he can.
An arrogant administration… March 7, 2016
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One which I have no idea whatsoever how far beyond the Dáil bubble it played did manage to encapsulate that picture.
Wednesday, February 3rd, the day when the election was called, was pregnant with damaging scenes and sounds for the Government campaign.
At 9.30am the Taoiseach announced the election, and then rushed out of the Dáil, leaving even the acting Ceann Comhairle confused. There was then supposed to be a joint press conference with the Taoiseach and Tánaiste on the steps of Government Buildings but this became a peculiar scene, where Joan Burton waved Kenny off to the Áras while she was left to face the media.
The ‘whingers’ line, that though I think did have legs. I don’t think it lost the election. One can throw in a raft of different issues. Siteserv for example. And there are many more.
I suspect that this was a profoundly unloved administration by the end of its first year in office and that it was that, as well as the sheer weight of opposition to it in so many different forms that finally saw it off. For the moment.
Irish Left Archive: 1916 – 1966, Irish Socialist Review, Irish Workers Party (later CPI), 1966 March 7, 2016
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To download the above please click on the following link. IRISHSOCREV1966
Please click here to go the Left Archive.
This month we’ll be highlighting documents that engage with 1916 – either from the 1966 or 1991 anniversaries. Many thanks to those who forwarded same to the Archive.
Many thanks to Bobcat for forwarding this and other documents to the Archive.
This handsome twenty-four page document was issued by the IWP – the forerunner of the Communist Party of Ireland. It seeks to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the Rising. The list of those contributing is extensive, including A Raftery (editor of the Irish Socialist), Joseph Deasy (author of The Fiery Cross: The Story of Jim Larkin) and Anthony Coughlan. Reprints of articles from Sean Murray (IRA and later CPI), Elizabeth Gurley Flynn (CPUSA) and John S. Clarke (a colleague of Connolly’s).
Contents wise it includes an overview of Easter Week 1916 and a re-examination of the Rising, which concludes:
The working class remains as the ‘incorruptible inheritors’ of 1916. By recapturing Connolly’s vision of the unity of national and social struggles they can give leadership to all those who will suffer from the repudiation of the heritage which was asserted in arms 50 years ago.
Another article notes ‘1913-1916: Similar Battle Lines’.
Elizabeth Gurley-Flynn’s piece examines Connolly in America and suggests that ‘he felt keenly that not enough understanding and sympathy was shown by American Socialists for the cause of Ireland’s national liberation, that the Irish workers here were too readily abandoned by the Socialists as ‘reactionaries’ and that there was not sufficient effort made to bring the message of Socialism to the Irish-American workers.
Another piece argues that ‘1916 proved Britain not Invincible’. And yet another considers Connolly’s views on partition. Here he offers the opinion that:
‘Personally I entirely agree with those who think [the proposal should be resisted with armed force if necessary]… Belfast is bad enough as it is; what it would be like under [Orange] rule the wildest imagination cannot conceive.
Anthony Coughlan’s piece argues that ‘The Connolly Road should lead to Labour Republican Unity’.
The publication contains many photographs of the period and after, the personal reminiscences of those involved in the Rising and also incorporates poems and songs into the text.
Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week March 6, 2016
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Garibaldy is unavoidably detained, but we’ve been able to find one or two statements that might fit the bill. Someone who is no stranger to self-praise – and offers yet more examples this weekend in a column that appears simultaneously to be both job application and impassioned complaint to HR by someone horribly ignored by the powers that be – writes about how FF and FG should not go into coalition together (and because apparently they are so different to one another) offers these fascinating reasons:
Nobody on the RTE count panel asked how it was in the national interest to leave Sinn Fein alone in opposition.
Or pointed out the historical value of two alternating centrist parties in staving off the politics of fascism and communism.
A more serious view of just how the ‘Punch and Judy’ act has worked out for us is to be found in the pages of the same publication in what is definitely not Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week.
Alienation from the political process March 6, 2016
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This piece here in the Irish Time which examines attitudes of some in inner-city Dublin Central is interesting. The turn-out in this particular constituency which I know well, living there – as are many who engage on this site – was very low, at 52.4% the lowest in the state. It certainly wasn’t for lack of choice or a range of candidates who have worked and continue to work solidly on the ground across years.
That said there’s some hope in terms of those asked to give an opinion, all of whom quoted had one even when their initial response was dismissive. And this strikes me as particularly apposite…
Later, Gerard Davis and his daughter Serena offer a warning on Sean McDermott Street not to check a mobile phone too conspicuously: “Gurriers on bikes zip by and nick phones,” says Serena. She does not vote.
Her father votes Sinn Féin. He is incensed that they are not considered real coalition material. “How long have they been telling Sinn Féin to put down the gun and use the ballot paper and now nobody wants to go into government with them?”
There’s a lot in that – not least the dangers that by treating that cohort of voters who voted in that direction after those years of calling for SF etc to join the political process in such a way that that will generate yet further alienation. Granted evidence at this point of that is low – Mary Lou McDonald romped home at the top of the poll. But there’s something contradictory, and has been for years, in that stance.
‘Weeks not months’ to get a government… March 6, 2016
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With the first sitting of the new Dáil just days away, informal contacts have been continuing between the main party leaders, Independents and smaller groupings about the possible formation of the next government.
The Green Party leader Eamon Ryan has said that all of those elected to the Dáil have an obligation to help form a stable government.
Though is this befitting modesty or a realistic appraisal of their political stock (even with two TDs returned).
He said that while the Green Party would be willing to enter a coalition, he thought it more likely, with just two TDs, that it would be sitting on the Opposition benches.
