Donald Trump the Dangerous

App review: too much or not enough Donald Trump

by Nicholas Kristof

Is there any scarier nightmare than President Donald Trump in a tense international crisis, indignant and impatient, with his sweaty finger on the nuclear trigger?

"Trump is a danger to our national security," John B Bellinger III, legal adviser to the State Department under President George W Bush, bluntly warned.

Most of the discussion about Trump focuses on domestic policy. But checks and balances mean that there are limits to what a president can achieve domestically, while the Constitution gives a commander in chief a much freer hand abroad.

That's what horrifies America-watchers overseas. Der Spiegel, the German magazine, has called Trump the most dangerous man in the world. Even the leader of a Swedish nationalist party that started as a neo-Nazi white supremacist group has disavowed Trump. JK Rowling, author of the Harry Potter books, reflected the views of many Britons when she tweeted that Trump is worse than Voldemort.

Donald Trump has already done a lot of damage to US reputation simply by being a blowhard
Donald Trump has already done a lot of damage to US reputation simply by being a blowhard AP

Leading American conservative thinkers on foreign policy issued an open letter a few days ago warning that they could not support Trump. The signatories include Michael Chertoff, the former secretary of homeland security, Robert Zoellick, the former deputy secretary of state, and more than 100 others.

"Mr Trump's own statements lead us to conclude that as president, he would use the authority of his office to act in ways that make America less safe," the letter declared.

A starting point is Trump's remarkable ignorance about international affairs. And every time he tries to reassure, he digs the hole deeper. Asked in the latest debate to name people whose foreign policy ideas he respects, Trump offered General Jack Keane, and mispronounced his name.

Asked about Syria, Trump said last year that he would unleash IS to destroy Syria's government. That is insane: IS is already murdering or enslaving Christians, Yazidis and other religious minorities; executing gays; destroying antiquities; oppressing women. And Trump wants IS to capture Damascus?

Democrats
Republicans
OUT OF RUNNING
Jeb Bush
9/4
Former Florida governor, brother of one president and son of another. He struggled to shake the dubious legacy of his brother George W; the Iraq war and financial crisis. Bush, 63, is popular among pro-business supporters and the party's establishment elite. His moderate pro-immigration stance makes him less popular among grass roots conservatives. Uneven performances in debates and a lackluster campaign turned Bush, the man many presumed to the eventual nominee, into something of an also-ran. He dropped out of the race after the third voting state of South Carolina.
Marco Rubio
Rubio, 44, cast his entry into the Republican field as a "generational choice." The son of Cuban immigrants, the Florida Senator is viewed as the party's best chance of defeating anti-establishment candidates Trump and Cruz. He has fought to strengthen ties with conservatives after he helped lead a failed push for to for laws protecting up to 11 million illegal immigrants in 2013. Rubio spent a enormous amounts of time and cash in Iowa and was rewarded with a strong third place finish. However, a debate meltdown in New Hampshire made Rubio look like a robotic lightweight, and he fell to a poor fifth place finish there. Virtually the entire Republican partay backed Rubio in South Carolina and it helped him narrowly beat out Cruz for second place there, but well behind the winner, Trump. Alone among the top three Republican candidates, Rubio has not won a single contest. A favorite of the party's donor class who see him as their best chance to defeat Clinton in November, Rubio must first convince his party's voters that he's more than just a pretty smile.
10
5/2
Delegate count from states which have voted
A libertarian, the first-term Kentucky senator followed his father, Ron Paul, in running for president. A libertarian, he lobbed criticism at Democrats and fellow Republicans alike over the federal debt and personal liberties. He cast himself as an anti-establishment reformer who could win over young and minority voters. However, there are very few young or minority voters in Republican primaries and also very few libertarians in the Iowa GOP. He finished a distant fifth in Iowa with 4.5 percent of the vote and dropped out of the race days later.
10/1
Rand Paul
16/1
Carly Fiorina
The only female Republican in the field. Once one of the most powerful women in American business, the former Hewlett-Packard Co chief executive positioned herself as an outsider with corporate experience. But her record running the tech company was scrutinised, after it faced financial difficulty and laid off thousands of workers. Fiorina, 60, criticized the only other woman so far seeking the presidency, Democrat Hillary Clinton. Fiorina dropped out after the second voting state of New Hampshire.
22/1
11
Cruz, 45, of Texas is the favourite of ultra-conservartives and is making a big play for the Christian vote. The Senator led the October 2013 government shutdown because he wanted to link funding the budget to repeal of President Barack Obama's healthcare insurance expansion. The Princeton and Harvard educated son of a Cuban immigrant, Cruz has taken a hardline against illegal immigration. A constitutional lawyer, he vows to cut government and eradicate the special interests plaguing Washington. Cruz fought to a hard-won victory in Iowa and then placed a surprisingly-strong third place in New Hampshire, despite spending almost no money in the state. However, Cruz suffered a setback in South Carolina, where he expected to do well among the state's many evangelical voters. In the end, Cruz finished third, very closely behind Rubio, who took second place. Although a U.S. Senator, Cruz is disliked even more than Trump by the party's establishment in Washington.
Ted Cruz
Rick Perry
25/1
The former governor of Texas hoped his 2016 campaign would go better than it did in 2012, where his defence of immigrants and a disastrous debate performance left him with the reputation as a lightweight out of step with his party. Memories had not faded and Perry's hopes to follow his predecessor as Texas governor, George W Bush, to the White House disappeared when voters and donors largely ignored him. Perry read the writing on the wall and dropped out long before the Iowa caucuses.
The famous ex-neurosurgeon is the only African-American candidate, but he bases his appeal on his devout Christian belief rather than his skin color. Carson briefly led the national polls months ago, but repeated displays of policy ignorance and poor debate performances have put him near the bottom of the pack. While Republican voters consistently rate Carson as the most likable candidate, he has not been able to translate personal regard in to political support. While the GOP's sizable population of evangelical voters should be his natural constituency, he is losing them to the Cruz and, incredibly, Trump campaigns. Carson has finished far back in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and is not expected to do well in Nevada either. With funding drying up and no primary wins in sight, the Carson campaign appears to be on life support.
Ben Carson
3
Jim Gilmore
The former governor of Virginia was the longest of long shots, raising almost no money and generating almost no excitement among Republican voters who were largely unaware of him. After finishing dead last in Iowa and New Hampshire, Gilmore pulled out to the notice of almost no one.
The evangelical pastor and former governor of Arkansas lost his previously strong hold on religious conservatives and his campaign never took off. Although Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 he was never a factor eight years later and dropped out of the race after a miserable ninth place finish in Iowa.
Mike Huckabee
33/1
John Kasich
50/1
5
A Congressman in the 1990s, Kasich is now the governor of the key midwestern state of Ohio and easily the closest thing the Republicans have to a moderate in the race. He is a fiscal and economic conservative. Although he hews close to the Republican line on most issues, he is wary of overseas military committments and has bucked party orthodoxy by expanding Obama's federal government healthcare in his state. A devout Catholic, Kasich justifies his deviations on his need to show compassion for the poor. Kasich fought hard in New Hampshire and was rewarded with a distant second place. His challenge will be appealing to a Republican electorate that is more conservative than he is.
The former Pennsylvania Senator who won Iowa in 2012 and was a distant runner-up to Mitt Romney overall failed to catch fire four years later. Like Huckabee, the devoutly Catholic Santorum based his campaigns on his close relationship with religious conservatives, but that group of voters has moved on to other, newer candidates. Santorum's best state was always going to be Iowa, but he finished in 11th place with a mere one per cent of the vote. Soon thereafter he dropped out of the race and endorsed Marco Rubio.
Rick Santorum
The 69-year-old real estate mogul and TV personality has said that if elected, he would be "the greatest jobs president that God ever created." He has shocked seasoned political observers by sustaining his lead in Republican polls, through a colourful anti-Washington and anti-immigrant campaign. Trump finished second in Iowa, but then won blowout victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Big wins in the 11 voting states on Super Tuesday on March 1 would put Trump clearly in control of the GOP race.
Donald Trump
67
xx/1
The former governor of Louisiana, the Indian-American Jindal is another religious conservative in a crowded field of such candidates. However, Jindal's tenure as governor left the state with budget problems and he proved to be a poor fundraiser and national candidate He dropped out long before the first ballots were cast.
Bobby Jindal
Currently serving his second term as governor of New Jersey, the blunt-talking Republican is more moderate than most of his fellow Republicans. Favored by the party's financial elite, who like Christie's hostility to unions and distaste for culture wars, the governor never caught on with the voters in Iowa or even New Hampshire. Christie was once very popular in New Jersey, but has been embroiled for years in a scandal involving the use of intentional traffic jams to punish mayors who did not back his campaign for re-election. Christie's one bright spot in the campaign was eviscerating Marco Rubio during a debate before the New Hampshire primary. However, the damage to Rubio did not help Christie and he dropped out after a poor showing in New Hampshire.
Chris Christie
The former First Lady, Senator from New York and Secretary of State is the most politically experienced candidate in the field. She succeeded in scaring away virtually all opposition within the Democratic party, except independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who is running as a Democrat. He has thrown a wrench into her plan to coast to the nomination. As Clinton tries to turn the election into a referendum on her sparkling resume, she has struggled to respond to the populist attacks from the left, who paint her as an out-of-touch elitist with more allegiance to Wall Street than working Americans. Young people, in particular, have not warmed to her. After winning the Iowa caucus by the slimmest of margins and then being crushed by Sanders in New Hampshire, Clinton recovered with a win in the Nevada caucuses and is and she is relying on African-Americans and possibly Hispanics to deliver her wins in southern states.
Hillary Clinton
51
The self-described "democratic socialist" is a Senator from Vermont who has been an independent his entire political career, but is now running as a Democrat in a long-shot campaign to unseat the presumed party heir, Hillary Clinton. The white-haired 74-year-old is promising vast new spending programs on health care, education, infrastructure and poverty alleviation. He says he will pay for it with tax increases on the wealthy and some middle class families, as well as cuts to defence. He wants to break up the big banks and drastically reduce America's military committments overseas. He is a friend of unions and a staunch opponent of free trade. While he cannot match Clinton's fundrasing machine among the party's elite donors, Sanders has stolen a page from Barack Obama's playbook in 2008 and built a vast base of middle class supporters who have flooded his coffers with small donations. After a close loss in Iowa, Sanders won big in New Hampshire, but lost in Nevada despite outspending Clinton there. Sanders must still prove he can win the support of African-American and Hispanic voters, who form powerful voting blocs in the Democratic primaries.
Bernie Sanders
Martin O’Malley
The former mayor of Baltimore and governor of Maryland based his candidacy on being the progressive alternative to Clinton, but saw that space occupied more effectively by Sanders. O'Malley's campaign struggled to raise money and to answer questions from the Black Lives Matter movement after inquiries were raised over aggressive policing of African-American neighborhoods of Baltimore under O'Malley's mayoralty. O'Malley finished a distant third in Iowa and quickly dropped out.
Scott Walker
The governor of Wisconsin was once thought as a top contender in 2016. His popularity with conservative voters, due to his close relationship with the religious right and his ability to defeat public sector unions, led many pundits to predict Walker would be difficult to beat. While Walker briefly led the Iowa polls, the introduction of Trump into the race stole Walker's thunder and he proved to be a wooden candidate who repelled big donors soon after attracting them. His inability to answer basic questions on foreing policy soured most on Walker and he dropped out of the race - as probably the biggest disappointment of 2016 - before any votes were cast.

A second major concern is that Trump would start a trade war, or a real war. Trump told The New York Times in January that he favoured a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, then denied ever having said such a thing. The New York Times produced the audio (that part of the conversation was on the record) in which Trump clearly backed the 45 per cent tariff, risking a trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Trump has also called for more US troops on the ground in Iraq, and raised the prospect of bombing North Korean nuclear sites. A poorly informed, impatient and pugnacious leader can cause devastation, and that's true of either Kim Jong Un or Donald Trump.

The third risk is to America's reputation and soft power. Both Bush and President Barack Obama worked hard to reassure the world's 1.6 billion Muslims that the U.S. is not at war with Islam. Trump has pretty much declared war on all Muslims.

The damage to America's image is already done, even if Trump is never elected. Simply as a blowhard who gains headlines around the world, he reinforces caricatures of the United States and tarnishes our global reputation. He turns America into an object of derision. He is America's Ahmadinejad.

On Twitter, I suggested that Trump was pugnacious, pugilistic, preening and puerile, and asked for other P words to describe him. The result was a deluge: petulant, pandering, pathetic, peevish, prickly, pernicious, patronising, Pantagruelian, prevaricating, phony, presumptuous, potty-mouthed, provocative, pompous, predatory and so many more, including the troubling "probably president."

There's something heartbreaking about the prospect that America's next commander-in-chief may be a global joke, a man regarded in most foreign capitals as a buffoon, and a dangerous one.

Trump is not particularly ideological, and it's possible that as president he would surround himself with experts and would back off extreme positions. It was a good sign that on Friday he appeared to reverse himself and pledged that he would not order the US military to commit war crimes, yet that's such an astonishingly low bar that I can't believe I just wrote this sentence!

In any case, Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, and it seems equally plausible that he would start new wars. It's a risk that few sensible people want to take. As Mitt Romney notes, "This is the very brand of anger that has led other nations into the abyss."

Peter Feaver, a Duke University political scientist who was a national security official in the Bush White House, noted that most Republicans are united in believing that Obama and Hillary Clinton have damaged the United States and added to the burdens of the next president.

"Yet what Trump promises to do would in some important ways make all of the problems we face dramatically worse," he told me. "Why, at a moment when the country desperately needs our A-team, would we send in the clowns?"

Nicholas Kristof is a columnist for The New York Times

The New York Times