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Europe Without the Union

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Eastern Europe: Where Two Civilizations Collide

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Is the Islamic State in Its Death Throes or Deadlier Than Ever?

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Analysis
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Europe's Refugee Crisis Spurs an Unlikely Alliance

Despite being on opposite sides during last year's bailout negotiations, Germany and Greece now have reason to cooperate on Athens' financial and migration crises. Read more…

Mar 4, 2016 | 17:18 GMT
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Stratfor on a World Without Physical Currency

Fortune magazine highlights Stratfor's analysis on the broader implications of a global shift to electronic currencies, including government control of capital flows.

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Omar Lamrani on the Syrian Ceasefire

Speaking with Vice News, Stratfor Military Analyst Omar Lamrani explains why few are optimistic a proposed cease-fire will lead to a resolution in Syria.

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Situation/Intelligence Reports

Georgia: Energy Minister Signs A Deal With Azerbaijan's State-Owned Oil Company

Georgian Energy Minister Kakha Kaladze struck a deal with Rovnag Abdullayev, the president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), Civil Georgia reported March 4. Read more…

Guinea-Bissau: Army Chief Threatens Execution For Any Coup Plotters

Guinea-Bissau's army chief warned that any soldiers involved in coup plots against the country's government would be executed, News24 reported March 4. Read more…

Eritrea: Ethiopia Reportedly Strikes Coastal Base

Unconfirmed Twitter reports say the Ethiopian air force on March 4 bombed a military base on the Eritrean coastline, near the town of Arkiko. Read more…

Syria: Opposition Leader Calls Cease-Fire A Failure

Coordinator of the Syrian opposition negotiating body, Riad Hijab, said March 4 that loyalist forces are flouting the cease-fire and sabotaging negotiations, Reuters reported. Read more…

Iraq: Government Will Pay Foreign Oil Companies $2 Billion

Iraq will pay $2 billion in arrears to foreign oil companies in April, according to Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Fayadh al-Nema, Reuters reported March 4. Read more…

Syria: Airstrikes Hit Town Near Damascus, Activists Say

Airstrikes hit the rebel-controlled town of Douma, east of Damascus, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, AFP reported March 4. Read more…

Syria: Jabhat Al-Nusra Militants Fleeing To Iraq, Source Says

According to a Syrian military analyst, hundreds of fighters from al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra are fleeing Syria for Anbar and Salahuddin provinces in Iraq, with thousands more expected to follow. Read more…

Denmark: Government Plans To Deploy Troops, Jets Against Islamic State

Denmark plans to deploy special operations forces and fighter jets to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, Xinhua reported March 4. Read more…

Iraq: Thousands Protest Corruption Across Country

Protests are ongoing in Baghdad and in provinces across Iraq, with tens of thousands of people demonstrating for government reforms and protesting state corruption, Alsumaria News reported March 4. Read more…

Turkey: Militant Attack Kills 2, Injures More Than 30

A March 4 attack by militants in Turkey's southeastern Mardin province killed two police officers and wounded more than 30 other people, according to a statement by the Mardin governor's office, Dogan News Agency reported. Read more…

Cuba: U.S. Secretary Of State Postpones Visit

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a previously announced trip to Cuba, a State Department official said March 3, Fox News reported. Read more…

Brazil: Former President Detained For Alleged Corruption

The home of Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been raided, and he has been detained for questioning as part of a corruption probe into state energy company Petroleo Brazileiro, BBC reported March 4. Read more…

Libya: 2 Italian Hostages Freed, After 2 Others Reportedly Killed

Two Italian citizens held hostage by militants in Libya since July were freed March 4, a day after two others were reportedly killed in a raid on the group, Reuters reported. Read more…

Lebanon: Hezbollah's Terrorist Label Part Of Bigger Plan, Source Says

According to a Saudi diplomat in the Levant, the March 2 decision by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to label Lebanon's Hezbollah a terrorist organization is part of a broader power play against the group by Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia. Read more…

Syria: 14 Cease-Fire Violations Recorded By Russian Defense Ministry

Russia's Defense Ministry released a statement saying the past 24 hours had witnessed 14 cease-fire violations in Syria, Reuters reported March 3. Read more…

U.S.: Pentagon Approves Bomb Deal With Turkey

The United States has approved a deal to sell nearly $683 million worth of precision-guided munitions to Turkey, Hurriyet reported March 3. Read more…

Egypt: Officer Killed In Cairo Firefight

A March 3 clash in Cairo between police and suspects in an attack on police earlier this week has left one officer dead, Ahram Online reported. Read more…

Syria: U.N. Envoy Says Cease-Fire Brings Progress

U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura said the Syrian cease-fire is holding but remains fragile, Reuters reported March 3. Read more…

Forecasts

Annual Forecast 2016

With old geopolitical realities resurfacing across Eurasia and commodity prices stuck in a slump, 2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world. Read more…