Brendan Nyhan

New NYT: Hillary Clinton's flawed message

From my new Upshot column:

Political campaigns are supposed to promise hope and change, but Hillary Clinton is not offering enough of either — one of the most important reasons that she barely won Iowa and lost by a wide margin to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

New NYT: The downside of dynastic politics

From my new Upshot column:

Why have Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton struggled so much during this campaign? It might seem as if the public is weary of Bushes and Clintons and has turned against dynastic politics, but voters don’t usually punish politicians for being members of political families. Becoming a long-term member of the House of Representatives, for example, substantially increases the odds that a relative will also serve in Congress.

But the advantages that dynastic candidates enjoy come at a cost: Those who end up seeking the presidency may discover that they lack the campaign skills of other credible contenders.

New NYT: The obstacles to a Bloomberg win

From my new Upshot column:

The dream of a centrist third-party presidential candidate will never die.

Michael Bloomberg, the media billionaire and former New York City mayor, is once again considering running for president, but how broad is his appeal?

Although he may wish to portray himself as a centrist alternative to more extreme presidential contenders, Mr. Bloomberg wouldn’t enter the race with a public image that is especially conducive to a third-party run.

New NYT: The downside of Trump touting his polls

From my new Upshot column:

Donald Trump misses no opportunity to remind us that he’s ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. During a rally in Claremont, N.H., last week, he said, “When people say, ‘Why do you always talk about the polls?’ I say, ‘Because I’m winning!’ Believe me, if I’m not winning, I don’t talk about them.”

Many pundits interpret these kind of statements as a reflection of Mr. Trump’s ego, which is not an unreasonable view. He does like talking about himself. But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.

New research on journalistic fact-checking

I have a new article out in the Journal of Communication with Lucas Graves and Jason Reifler on the reasons journalists engage in fact-checking (ungated preprint):

Understanding Innovations in Journalistic Practice: A Field Experiment Examining Motivations for Fact-Checking
Lucas Graves, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler

Why has fact-checking spread so quickly within U.S. political journalism? In the first field experiment conducted among reporters, we varied journalist exposure to messages that highlight either audience demand for fact-checking or the prestige it enjoys within the profession. Our results indicate that messages promoting the high status and journalistic values of fact-checking increased the prevalence of fact-checking coverage, while messages about audience demand were somewhat less successful. These findings suggest that political fact-checking is driven primarily by professional motives within journalism, a finding that helps us understand the process by which the practice spreads within the press as well as the factors that influence the behavior of journalists.

New NYT: Trump's misdiagnosis of extremist opinion

From my new Upshot column:

On Monday, Donald Trump singled out American Muslims as supporting repression and violence, citing a discredited poll from an anti-Muslim group as evidence for imposing border restrictions. But if he is worried about extremist public opinion in the United States, he should take a broader look around.

Research shows that Muslim Americans are less likely to endorse violence against civilians than other religious groups. Moreover, the evidence suggests that a non-trivial minority of Americans of all faiths and backgrounds is willing to endorse the sorts of violence against the government and repressive legal measures that Mr. Trump accused Muslims of disproportionately supporting.

New On the Media interview on fact-checking

My interview with Brooke Gladstone about the prospects for fact-checking in the age of Trump:

(I also did a related interview on fact-checking and Trump with New Hampshire Public Radio.)

New NYT: Talking politics at Thanksgiving

From my new Upshot column:

It’s time for that annual American holiday tradition: awkward political conversation at the Thanksgiving dinner table. With the 2016 presidential primary campaign in full swing and public interest on the rise, the odds are good that relatives will share their thoughts with you about why one candidate will win or how another is going to destroy America. I can’t tell you how to keep your family away from sensitive topics, but here are brief answers to some frequently asked questions about current events and the 2016 race.

New NYT: Overrating outrage in Obama’s Paris response

From my new Upshot column:

With all the reporting and commentary that faulted President Obama for not displaying more anger at his news conference Monday on the Paris attacks, it almost seemed as if people hoped he would bring back Luther, the satirical “anger translator” played by Keegan-Michael Key who appeared alongside him at the White House Correspondents Dinner in April.

Displays of emotion have become an expected ritual in the age of the televised presidency, but President Obama has often been reluctant to reveal how he feels after major events. This pattern goes back to the very beginning of his time in office.

New NYT: Why Paris probably isn't a "game changer"

From my new Upshot column:

Until last week, the threat from terrorism had received little attention from candidates or voters during the 2016 campaign. In one poll, just 3 percent of Americans rated it the most important problem facing the country.

The horrific attacks that took place Friday in Paris have, at least for the moment, changed that dynamic. CBS quickly moved to increase the emphasis on foreign policy and national security during Saturday night’s Democratic debate. Candidates are scrambling to adjust to the news, which media analysis has suggested might “alter” the character of the race, for instance by helping more experienced candidates like Hillary Rodham Clinton and hurting outsiders like Donald Trump.

How long-lasting an effect will the Paris attacks have on the United States presidential race? Absent further attacks, the suggestion that Paris will prove to be a “game changer” is unlikely to be correct.

New NYT: The limits of the tobacco strategy on climate

From my new Upshot column:

For years, activists and scholars have contended that groups who reject the scientific consensus on climate change are employing tactics once used to create doubt about the dangers of smoking.

Now environmentalists are taking a page from tobacco opponents by suggesting oil companies misled investors and the public about the risks of climate change. The first step toward a legal inquiry came Wednesday evening when the New York attorney general subpoenaed records from Exxon Mobil.

While this tactic helped tobacco opponents win over regulators and the public, it may be a less effective approach to addressing political opposition to climate change — an issue on which both elites and the public are deeply divided.

New NYT: How will Democrats pass their agenda?

From my new Upshot column:

The Democratic presidential candidates covered a lot of ground during their debate Tuesday, but one issue received little attention: their theory of political change. How exactly would Hillary Rodham Clinton or her rivals pass the programs and proposals they advocate?

New NYT: Deflategate polarization & conspiracy beliefs

From my new Upshot column:

Sports fans may have more in common with political partisans than you might think — specifically, a home-team bias that shapes what they believe to be true about the world.

As a result, the beliefs of fans — or partisans — who know the most about a particular controversy are often more polarized, not less. It’s true in politics, science and, perhaps surprisingly, sports.

That’s what my colleagues and I found when we examined what the public believes about the ball-deflation controversy that started in last season’s N.F.L. playoffs and that is likely to continue to provoke further debate this week before Sunday night’s game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

New NYT: House disarray unlikely to help Democrats

From my new Upshot column:

With House Republicans in disarray after John Boehner’s likely successor withdrew from the Speaker’s race Thursday, speculation has grown about potential damage to the party’s chances in the 2016 election. Will voters punish the G.O.P. for the actions of a conservative faction that blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascension and has been willing to repeatedly risk government shutdowns in confrontations with President Obama?

Recent history suggests that the political costs of turmoil and confrontation for the G.O.P. are likely to be minimal.

New NYT: The problem with "authenticity"

From my new Upshot column:

Is Hillary Rodham Clinton not presenting her true self to voters? As with candidates like Mitt Romney and Al Gore, claims that she is inauthentic have fueled endless cycles of negative coverage of her campaign.

In reality, all politicians are strategic about the image and behaviors they present to voters. Some just hide the artifice better than others.