New Light on the Nomination Process

Every human system has both formal and informal rules. US presidential nominating processes are no different. But it's often not clear what the informal rules are until a dramatic change of circumstances leads to their being violated. One of those is coming up now in the GOP nominating process. There was a very interesting AP piece today showing that while Donald Trump is in a commanding position he's not yet winning a high enough percentage of delegates to win the nomination. As Stephen Ohlemacher and Steve Peoples explain, Trump is currently winning only 46 percent of the available delegates, a big plurality but not a majority.

Read More →

Rubes Events Canceled in Lexington and Baton Rouge

Rubio events in Lexington, Kentucky (notice) and Baton Rouge (notice) canceled.

It is important to recognize that a candidate can only be in so many places on a given day. As the campaign progresses and more contests come at a more rapid clip, campaigns will narrow their focus on the most important races and the ones where they can garner the most delegates. All that said, that doesn't sound like a great sign for the Rubio campaign. In fact, it sounds a lot like what the other evidence tells us: that the Rubio campaign is shifting from a plan to win to a plan to hold on as long as possible in the hopes of some dramatic shift in the dynamics of the race. In that context, fighting everywhere makes no sense: better to find a few states where a win seems plausible and focus resources there.

Read More →

Please, Stop

I confess it is difficult to take reporters seriously when they write things that suggest they don't understand the difference between what David Petraeus was indicted for and what Hillary Clinton, even by the most maximal interpretation, is accused of. What David Petraeus did was not mishandling classified information. No one ever suggested those were the facts of the case; it was lesser charge that grew out of a plea deal.

Read More →

Almost Like a Scheduled Part of the Rallies

As people were voting yesterday, white Trump supporters attacked a black protestor at a Trump event in Louisville. Story and video here.

Worst Possible Outcome

I saw a few pundits saying last night that Donald Trump had 'underperformed' in the Super Tuesday primaries. That strikes me as laughable unless you're using some metric that forced him to win every contest to meet some nonsensical expectations game. But the more I thought about last night's results the more it became clear to me that it was about the worst possible mix of outcomes for Marco Rubio and the even worse for the GOP.

Read More →

No, There Won't Be a Contested Convention

Numerous Republicans and pundits are now predicting a contested GOP convention. Everybody was noting last night that ... well, sure Trump is winning most of the primaries but delegates are distributed on a proportional basis so "not Trump" has more delegates than "Trump." So open convention, baby!

No. In this election, certainly anything - truly anything - is possible. Despite my headline, I would not even say that a contested convention is impossible. But this 'contested convention' talk is just a compressed phase of denial, bargaining and anger as GOP stakeholders rush to make sense of what's happening to them.

Read More →

Welcome to 2016

CNN Trump surrogate Jeffrey Archer explains to Van Jones that the KKK thing really isn't a problem because it's a leftist organization and also Dixiecrats. Watch.

Rubes' Grief Counseling Session

Last night I flagged this poignant moment when Jake Tapper's interview with Marco Rubio turned into an impromptu grief counseling session. Tapper tried to gently but compassionately edge up to the subject: "I'm wondering if there's a certain amount of denial that you're in about this race?" Now Caitlin MacNeal has the video. Watch.

Rubio Gets a Win. Really.

Marco Rubio has now officially won a state: Minnesota, which holds a caucus. The discussion of the win on the cable networks though gives a sense of how much the image of his campaign is calcifying into a metaphor for humiliating defeat. On the cable nets, the announcement was treated with a mix of amused surprise and the sort of fulsome pride grandparents show when a toddler says their first word. That and a lot of 'finalys!'

Awkward Moment

Tapper just now to Rubio: "Senator, you keep saying that and he keeps winning states and you're talking about Virginia and that's another state that Donald Trump won. I'm wondering if there's a certain amount of denial that you're in about this race."

Rubes' Breakthrough?

It looks like Rubio might be able to come in first place in the Minnesota caucus.

On a more serious note, Sanders is looking good in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses. (Full results in the links to the right.)

Trump Takes Arkansas

Nets call Arkansas for Trump.

Rubes' End

This is starting to look like about the worst possible night Marco Rubio could have had. Making it a race in Virginia is definitely something. But Donald Trump has had a night of crushing victories. Just as important, Cruz won his home state of Texas convincingly and Oklahoma. And there are still a few states out. Rubio still might win in Minnesota. But it looks like Cruz has two or possibly three wins and Rubio has none.

His line tonight: "We are seeing in state after state, his number's coming down, our number's going up."

Good luck with that, dude.

I don't think establishment Republicans have it in them to consolidate around Ted Cruz. He's just too big a jerk, probably unelectable nationwide. And they hate him. There's basically zero chance he wins the nomination. But it's going to be pretty hard for anyone to argue that Cruz has to get out for Rubio after tonight's results.

Clinton Speaks

Listening to Clinton's speech, I'm struck by one of most unexpected, surreal parts of this campaign: Trump has given Hillary Clinton the turnkey campaign message she simply never had until right now. It's basically just the Trump message turned upside. And with Trump's message so rancid and cartoonish, it's a message that's fairly hard to quibble with.

The Sorrows of Young Ruber

And there we have it. Fox calls Virginia for Trump. AP still not calling yet. But that seems to be a wrap for Rubes.

(Fox called it on air. CNN called it on Twitter, but not on air. Overactive social media meister? They're hard to control!!)

Update: Aaaaand CNN took the call down from Twitter. Someone's now having a very difficult conversation.