Polls Update - Nevada and South Carolina - GOP and Democratic Primaries

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• published: 15 Feb 2016
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As I told you in my last video, the idea that Hillary Clinton was catching up to Bernie in NH was indeed utter nonsense. Bernie won by a landslide. As did, btw, Donald Trump. So, NH was a historic primary for a number of reasons. Both the Republican and Democratic victors came from outside their party's establishment. It was the first time a Jewish person ever won a state primary. And, it was the first win for a reality star with a bird's nest for hair. The next two primary states are Nevada and South Carolina, for both the Republicans and Democrats. In this video I'm going to show you tell you who will win all four races. I'll also talk about what Bernie's strategy should be going forward. But first, let's talk about this question: Who will win? So let's start with the Republican race in South Carolina. As you can see, as with most states, Donald Trump has a massive lead. Ted Cruz is also surging, but it looks to me like he's just changing places with Ben Carson. Marco Rubio has a better chance of taking 2nd place than Cruz has of over taking Trump. With six candidates in reasonable contention, (sorry Jim Gilmore), Trump's 16-point lead is pretty much insurmountable at this point. So, it's a pretty easy call. South Carolina goes to Trump. The Democratic party's next primary state is, unfortunately, also a pretty easy race to call. Not only does Hillary have a substantial lead, Nevada is one of the few states in which Bernie's numbers are actually declining, not rising. So, there's really no contest here. Nevada is going to Hillary. The Republican race for Nevada is far more interesting. Like with South Carolina, Trump has a huge lead and Ted Cruz is surging. But, there's a serious difference this race. Unlike in South Carolina, Trump is losing ground here. As it stands, I would still give the state to South Carolina, but a few things could really rock the vote. For example, if Ben Carson drops out of the race. A lot of pundits will tell you all those votes would go to Trump, because he's the other “outsider” in the race. But Carson is also mild mannered, religious, and a minority. Anyone voting for him for these qualities is more likely to go to Ted Cruz. A lot can change in two weeks, but I will give my tentative prediction to Trump. In South Carolina, we see a similar story for the Democrats. Hillary is in the lead but losing ground to Bernie, who is surging. Some have suggested that Bernie doesn't stand a chance in South Carolina because the demographics are not on his side: his supporters tend to be white and liberal. I completely disagree with that assessment. Although Sanders is more to the left than Hillary, liberal is probably the wrong word to apply to a self-defined democratic socialist. But aside from that, Bernie's supporters aren't just more liberal than Clinton's. They're primarily anti-establishment voters. They are passionate about a guy who isn't bought and wants to fight the corrupt campaign finance system, break up the banks and reinvigorate the democratic process. These things are not inherently liberal or leftist. Plenty of conservative and moderate democrats, as well as independents, support Bernie for these reasons. The standard left vs right paradigm is a total oversimplification, and ignores Bernie's real appeal. As far as white voters go, it is true that overall his supporters are white. But, that really has more to do with the fact that Bernie's base is in the North East, where people are white, and not vice-versa. How do I know this? Well, within New Hampshire, which is indeed very white, 49% of POC voted for Bernie. In other words, Bernie and Hillary split the minority vote. There's good reasons why minorities, particularly black people might support Clinton. After all, Bill was dubbed the first black president. And a lot of high-profile black politicians have endorsed Clinton, which gives her the veneer of the minority-friendly candidate. Bernie Sanders has a much better record when it comes to supporting black and latino communities. Perhaps his first notable political action was leading the first civil rights protest in Chicago's history. Meanwhile, Clinton and her husband have for decades lead the charge to harass, criminalize, and incarcerate a growing amount of the black community. Bernie Sanders will not secure the nomination by appealing to a larger percentage of white liberal voters. If he does it, it will have to be by getting the message out to people of colour that he the candidate that will actually deliver for their communities. That should happen before Super Tuesday. But, as far as South Carolina is concerned, I'm afraid it is probably too late. Hillary will probably win, but I expect it will be a tighter race than the numbers currently indicate. But I want to hear from you guys. When it comes to Nevada and South Carolina, the democrats and the republicans, who are you supporting, and who will win?