There's little argument to deny that Obama won the caucuses, in large part, especially the early ones, by his appeal to Republican voters. Nothing wrong with that; a vote is a vote. And I detest the un-democratic nature of the caucus anyway, so the more instability, the better to force its riddance.

That said, one of the the narratives forming is that if Sanders wins in Nevada, it's because of tampering votes. ie, Republicans with an agenda to nominate the least electable. I don't know that Sanders is more unelectable than Clinton at this point, the multiplicity of electability flaws abound.

After reading a few recent reports, I believe now that Sanders is going to win in Nevada. Very few people are excited about electing Clinton. She may have mortally wounded herself with going and giving those paid speeches to the bankers, and now refusing to release the transcripts of her speech.

If Bernie wins resoundingly in Nevada, by 55-45, say, then it matters. A tie does not really move the ball much. A solid win, and a week to spend in South Carolina, might make it interesting. I'm still very skeptical, but starting to see the possibility.

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OK, perhaps, hopefully, Trump finally trumped himself with the stupid call of a boycott on Apple. I can't believe that he thinks that would sail inside the Republican voting mind. They absolutely hate the government interfering with a private company making money. Nothing else is more important.

Trump looks more and more like Hobbes, and all the GOP voters, the majority, are waiting for is a Locke to vote for... it's not Cruz, that's for sure. I really have strong doubts of Sanders being able to win the General Election, and I have nearly equally strong doubts that if Clinton cannot win this easily, with all of her advantages, she's in trouble. Given that, it's becomes important who the Republican nominee is for President. Because if Trump wins, Buddha-Jesus-Krishna help us all!

I just cannot fathom that someone can win a Republican primary by first saying Bush lied, then calling out the Pope, and who then calls for a boycott of Apple unless they submit to the FBI. I will risk it all, and bet that Trump loses SC tomorrow. I'll put all the chips on Rubio.

That said, I am counting on Cruz faltering a bit, and the polls are mixed on this end. It may just turn out that all three are in the 20-25 range. Even if it's the latter case, Rubio has the clear advantage going forward.

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"Clinton's massive superdelegate lead puts her ahead 481-55 in delegates to the Democratic National Convention, according to the AP's count."

Insurmoutable comes to mind. It does look like a 'tie' is going to happen in Nevada, then the SC primary, where I expect Clinton will win by double-digits. I don't see anything that's changed the direction this is heading.

GOP SC. Trump is losing some of his mojo octane that he's running on. Here's my revision of the numbers:

Trump 40 to 28%
Really stupid moves that have resulted in his not being able to broaden his appeal.

Rubio 14 --> 20%
Second place now, very nice rebound from the NH disaster. The 2nd most electable.

Cruz 22 to 18%
He's losing out to Rubio, plain and simple. Unelectable comes to mind.

Bush 12 to 10%
I am hoping he falls even further, and is offed.

Kasich 5 to 12%
He has traction. Will finish ahead of Bush. Along with Rubio, the most electable. VP?

Carson 5 to 2%
Done. Finished in SC.

If Rubio does finish 2nd, and Bush finishes 4th, then Bush is done, out, and Rubio will become the main opposition to Trump. A Florida-Ohio, Rubio/Kasich ticket comes to mind, in a brokered convention... as the anti-Trump.

I am going to predict now that Clinton selects Mark Warner of Virginia for VP.

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I won't say nothing else matters, but I will not support any candidate for President that takes the position that Apple should cave to the FBI, and provide them with a backdoor to encryption.

This is not a "one-time" deal; it is a precedent.

I applaud Tim Cook and the Apple leadership on this issue.

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Looks like a done deal. Here's a national poll:
http://morningconsult.com/2016/02/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-national-polling/

Trump nearing 50% on the GOP side, pulling in large amounts of Independents and working class, former Democrats.

Clinton still with a 10% lead over Sanders at 39% nationally, with strong leads among black and latino voters.

Next Saturday is crowded. There is a Republican caucus in Washington state. Cruz will win there. Trump may not even finish in second place. It will be overshadowed by the South Carolina primary, which Trump will win. A week out I'll predict:
Trump 40%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 14%
Bush 12%
Kasich 5%
Carson 5%

Then the Nevada caucus is also held on Saturday. Sanders must win. But I predict Clinton will win, as the casino union workers will side with Clinton strongly.

This is followed by another closed Republican caucus, in Nevada. Cruz should win this, but I've a feeling that Trump will instead win, with a plurality.

And then comes the Democratic SC primary, two weeks away. Clinton will win 54-46, tighter than expected.

Then it's on to March 1st, when I expect that Clinton vs Trump becomes solidified.

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