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Special Elections: Sure, there’s no primary or caucus on Tuesday, but we still have one race to look forward to. Via Johnny Longtorso:

Alabama HD-05: This is an open Republican seat in Limestone County, on the border with Tennessee. The Democratic nominee is Henry White, who won a previous version of this seat in 2006, but was unseated 57-35 in 2010. White tried to return to the House in 2014, but he lost 56-44. The Republican nominee is Danny Crawford, a former member of the Athens City Council. This seat voted gave about 70 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney.

SCOTUS: Here's an irony: Republicans dearly loved Nino Scalia's strict construction of the Constitution, but now that he's gone, they've creatively re-interpreted Article II, section 1 to conclude that "four" actually means "three" and therefore the final year of Barack Obama's term doesn't count. But while Mitch McConnell can refuse to allow a vote on a replacement for Scalia for as long as the GOP holds a majority in the Senate, he can't protect his fellow party members who are up for re-election this year from the political assault that's about to engulf them if they embrace their leader's unprecedented obstructionism.

That's why several of the most vulnerable Republican senators have so far kept their mouths shut about the whole thing, including Rob Portman (Ohio), Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), and Mark Kirk (Illinois), who's usually awful when it comes to staying on message. They're going to have to say something substantive at some point, though.

But at least a couple of Republicans aren't waiting and have already decided to lash themselves to McConnell's mast, whatever hell may come their way. Wisconsin's Ron Johnson, one of the dimmest senators in the GOP caucus, is leading the way, declaring that "the American people should decide the future direction of the Supreme Court by their votes for president and the majority party in the U.S. Senate." Johnson has never seemed to grasp that he represents a blue-tilting swing state, and he often sounds more like a senator from the Deep South. His decision to embrace maximum recalcitrance is therefore unsurprising, and it only gives his Democratic challenger, former Sen. Russ Feingold, another juicy line of attack.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, though, is not someone you'd expect to blindly follow McConnell and Johnson, since she's long tried to cultivate a more moderate image. But while most of her efforts in service of this goal have been decidedly small beer, she's nevertheless infuriated conservatives, for whom a single apostasy is rarely forgivable. If she's still concerned about a threatened primary challenge on her right, perhaps that's why she's now saying that "the Senate should not move forward with the confirmation process until the American people have spoken by electing a new president."

That stance, however, can only hurt her in the general election, when she'll face live fire from her Democratic opponent. Gov. Maggie Hassan actually beat Ayotte to the punch with a statement saying that it would be "completely unacceptable, and a clear sign of Washington's dysfunction" if the Senate left Scalia's seat vacant for an entire year. That's a much more potent message than Ayotte's process-based argle-bargle, and it’s ready-made for attack ads.

There are still a number of other Republicans in hotly contested Senate races we need to hear from—including John McCain—and we'll be keeping close track of whatever they have to say about filling Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court. The Republicans' Senate majority was already at risk this year; now, the party's slavish devotion to maximizing its own partisan advantage is only going to place the GOP in further jeopardy.

TX-19: The crowded March 1 primary for this safely red seat is almost here, and the Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston gives us a good lay of the land. Local observers say that three candidates are fighting for the two spots in the May runoff: Jodey Arrington, a former George W. Bush aide and an ex-Texas Tech vice chancellor; Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson; and retired Air Force Colonel Michael Bob Starr. Bank president Greg Garrett and physician Donald May are doing some self-funding and could be in the mix as well.

Geography is likely to play a big role here. About one-third of the district lives in Lubbock, which could give Robertson a big edge. However, Arrington also hails from the city, and if the two men split the Lubbock vote enough, it could allow the Abilene-based Starr to advance. Arrington has been making the most of his political connections and he had more money than any of his opponents at the end of 2015. However, Arrington’s last race didn’t go well: Arrington lost a 2014 special election for the state Senate to another Republican 54-30.

Robertson has been largely self-funding his bid, and he spent a considerable amount of money on ads in December. Robertson trailed Arrington $189,000 to $112,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the year, but Robertson may be able to replenish his warchest more easily than Arrington. Starr has mostly been raising cash from donors, and he had $129,000 in the bank, while May and Garrett had $102,000 and $67,000 on hand respectively.

WI-08: What’s that, Lassie? Timmy fell down a well? Well, run for Congress to get him out! Over the weekend, GOP state Sen. Frank Lasee became the first major candidate to enter the race for this open 51-48 Romney seat. Lasee (whose name disappointingly is actually pronounced lah-SAY') is unlikely to have the primary to himself. State Reps. John Nygren, David Steffen, and Andre Jacque; ex-state Rep. Chad Weininger; and former Scott Walker foreign policy advisor Mike Gallagher have all talked about running. Democrats are hoping that Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson will get in.

NY-03, NY State Senate: Well, I guess state Sen. Jack Martins and Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci are both officially seeking the GOP nod for this open swing seat. Martins never appears to have made an announcement, but he has a “Jack Martins for Congress” website, Facebook page, and Twitter account active. Lupinacci also has a website where he refers to himself as a candidate for Congress, even though the last thing he said was that he was “exploring” a bid.

State Republicans reportedly tried to convince Martins to stay and defend his 54-45 Obama seat, but that ship seems to have sailed. Newsday reports that Nassau County Legislator Laura Schaefer is considering running for Team Red. On the Democratic side, wealthy businessman Adam Haber, who lost to Martins 55-42 in 2014, is already in. This seat could help decide control of the chamber, and we should expect a competitive race.

TN-08: Six Republicans are already running for this open 66-33 Romney seat, and they may have some company soon. State Rep. Andy Holt recently announced that he is considering getting in. Holt made national news a little while ago during the Bundy militia standoff in Oregon when he asked them, “Where can I send support for your effort?,” before he went on to scold liberals on the Constitution. It only takes a simple plurality to win a primary in Tennessee so if Holt gets in, he could very well win.

CO-06: National Democrats were enthusiastic when state Sen. Morgan Carroll entered the race against Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, and Carroll​ has proven to be a good fundraiser. During the last quarter of 2015, Coffman only outraised Carroll $279,000 to $277,000, though thanks to his considerable head start, he leads her $1.07 million to $452,000 in cash-on-hand. Obama carried this suburban Denver seat 52-47, and this should remain a fiercely contested race until November.

It doesn’t look like Carroll will face a primary here. Physician Perry Haney filed paperwork with the FEC over the summer and threw $1 million of his own money into his campaign. However, Haney promised an announcement by Sept. 15 but completely ignored his self-imposed deadline, and he appears to have taken back the $1 million. As of the end of the year, Haney had less than $500.00 in his campaign account, though he hasn’t filed termination papers with the FEC yet. The filing deadline is April 4.  

FL-13: Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist entered the race for this open 55-44 Obama seat, and he’s off to a good fundraising start. Crist, who was Team Blue’s gubernatorial nominee last year, raised $494,000 during his first quarter in the race, and he had $420,000 on hand at the end of the year.

Crist’s Democratic primary foe, former Obama administration official Eric Lynn, actually had a much-stronger $549,000 in the bank. Lynn did have a big head start on Crist though. Before the Florida Supreme Court ordered this district to be redrawn in July, Lynn was preparing to face Rep. David Jolly in a seat that Obama had only narrowly carried. Lynn raised $402,000 from April to June, but his fundraising plunged after this seat became much-bluer and Crist made it clear he wanted to run here. (Jolly ended up bailing and running for the Senate.)

Lynn brought in just $151,000 from July to September, and he took in only $100,000 during the final three months of 2015. Lynn has some prominent allies, including St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, and he still has enough cash to be taken seriously. However, it looks like Crist will be able to pull ahead of him in the money race before too long.

This seat is one of Team Blue’s best pickup opportunities anywhere, but there is one Republican who could still make things interesting. Ex-St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker has been flirting with a bid for a while, and he expressed interest as recently as last month. The filing deadline is June 24.

LA-04: On Monday, Shreveport City Councilor Oliver Jenkins, a Republican, joined the race for this open seat. Jenkins runs an oil and gas company, so he may have some personal wealth to spend. Two other notable Republicans are also seeking this 59-40 Romney seat: cardiologist Trey Baucum and state Rep. Mike Johnson, and several others are still considering. Attorney Rick John has been running since last month: It’s unclear if he’ll have the resources he’ll need to win, though the fact that he doesn’t have a working website is not encouraging. Ex-state Sen. Elbert Guillory, who took a Some Dude-esque 8 percent in last year’s lieutenant governor’s race, is also in.

CA-36: State Sen. Jeff Stone entered the race against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz last month (sort of), but he may need to put a little work into advancing past the June top-two primary. We haven’t heard much about veteran Dwight Kealy, but thanks to a $250,000 loan, he had a non-trivial $295,000 in the bank at the end of December. Obama only won this Inland Empire district 51-48, but Ruiz pulled off a decisive win during the 2014 GOP wave. Ruiz hasn’t gotten complacent: He raised $330,000 during the last quarter, and had $1.5 million to spend.

CA-52: Republicans were not at all impressed by retired Marine Jacquie Atkinson’s fundraising against Rep. Scott Peters, and it looks like they’ve found a much better candidate. Karl Rove protégé Denise Gitsham entered the race for this swingy San Diego-area seat in November, and she raised a decent $197,000 from donors. Thanks to some self-funding, Gitsham had $231,000 to spend at the end of the year. We’ll need a full quarter to see if Gitsham is able to raise the type of dough she’ll need to fight a formidable incumbent like Peters in a presidential year. Peters hauled in $403,000 for the quarter and had almost $1.4 million on hand at the end of December. Atkinson herself only had $43,000 in the bank.

KY-01: After his excruciatingly narrow loss in last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary, ex-state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer is hoping for a comeback by winning this safely red western Kentucky seat. However, Comer needs to get past Michael Pape, a longtime aide to retiring Rep. Ed Whitfield, and Pape can put up a fight in the May primary.

As of the end of December, Pape had a small $215,000 to $206,000 cash-on-hand lead over Comer. Whitfield is supporting Pape, which may be helping him raise money. A third candidate, Hickman County Attorney Jason Batts, is in, but he has a lot of work to do if he wants to win. Less than 1 percent of the 1st’s residents live in Hickman and with only $93,000 in the bank, it doesn’t look like Batts will be able to get his name out.

NY-18: Team Red came close to taking this seat during the 2014 GOP wave, but it looks like Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney is getting a free pass this time. While local Republicans have consolidated behind ex-Orange County Legislator Dan Castricone, Castricone raised only $10,000 from the time he filed to run here in October to the end of the year. Obama only carried this seat 51-47, but Maloney proved last cycle that he’s no pushover. The filing deadline is April 14.

FL-05, 10: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown has finally woken up to the fact that she needs to raise money if she wants to stay in Congress. Brown’s $119,000 haul during the last quarter wasn’t great, but it’s an improvement over the $60,000 she brought in over the summer. However, Brown managed to blow through most of it, and she had just $76,000 in the bank at the end of the year.

Brown hasn’t decided if she’ll run in the 5th, which stresses from her base in Jacksonville to Tallahassee, or the Orlando-area 10th. Both seats are safely blue, but Brown will face a primary wherever she campaigns. Ex-state Sen. Al Lawson announced back in he would run in the 5th in mid-December, but he raised no money during the final two weeks of the year, so he and Brown start in roughly the same place.

Things are much different in the 10th. The national Democratic establishment has consolidated behind 2012 nominee Val Demings, and she had $267,000 on hand. State Sen. Geraldine Thompson had only $86,000 in the bank, but wealthy ex-state party head Bob Poe entered the race in January.

FL-09: At the end of December, Susannah Randolph, a former aide to departing Rep. Alan Grayson, led Democratic primary rival state Sen. Darren Soto $224,000 to $214,000 in cash-on-hand, though Soto outraised her. Dena Minning, a biotech consultant who is also departing Rep. Alan Grayson’s girlfriend, had a smaller $129,000 on hand. Ex-state Rep. and current Gravis Marketing employee Ricardo Rangel is barely registering with $6,000 on hand. A considerable number of voters are Puerto Rican in this Orlando-area seat, which could give Soto the edge in the August primary. Obama won 56-43 here and Republican Wanda Rentas, a Kissimmee city commissioner, only had $6,000 on hand.

MI-07, 08: Romney carried each of these seats by a 51-48 margin, but national Democrats think that the 7th is the better target. The DCCC recently named state Rep. Gretchen Driskell to their “Red to Blue” program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. However, actress and 8th District candidate Melissa Gilbert was placed on the lower-tier “Emerging Races” list.

A quick look at the fourth-quarter reports gives us an idea why the DCCC feels better about Driskell. Driskell outraised Republican Rep. Tim Walberg $249,000 to $204,000; Walberg has a $1.06 million to $604,000 cash-on-hand lead, which is far from overwhelming. By contrast, 8th District incumbent Mike Bishop outraised Gilbert $249,000 to $203,000. Bishop’s $586,000 to $254,000 cash-on-hand edge is actually smaller than Walberg’s, but Gilbert burned through about two-thirds of the money she brought in during the last quarter.

Redistricting: One of the many, many areas of law that would be affected by a shift in the Supreme Court's composition is redistricting, where, as Stephen Wolf explains, a deadlocked court would benefit Democrats in a number of pending cases. And looking toward the future, we could see a sea change in how the high court treats partisan gerrymandering: The four current liberal justices would all like to police the practice, and if a fifth joins their ranks, that could dramatically alter how election districts are drawn nationwide. Click through for the full overview.

NY-24: Obama carried this Syracuse-area seat 57-41, but freshman Republican Rep. John Katko isn’t going down without a fight. Katko raised $281,000 during the last quarter, and he had $886,000 on hand. By contrast, none of his three Democratic rivals are exactly lighting the world on fire with their fundraising. Colleen Deacon, who used to run Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s local office, brought in the most money, but her $132,000 haul was far from incredible. Deacon has the backing of both Gillibrand and incoming Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer.

Attorney Steve Williams, who has the support of ex-DCCC chair Steve Israel, brought in just $100,000 but thanks to some self-funding, he lead Deacon $117,000 to $84,000 in cash-on-hand in December. Local professor Eric Kingson brought in the least amount of money, and he had $74,000 in the bank. The DCCC recently put this seat on their top-tier “Red to Blue” list, but they didn’t single out any of the three candidates for attention. The Democratic primary is in June.

NH-Sen: The Koch Brothers-backed Americans For Prosperity has gotten involved in most high-profile races in recent cycles, but they’re adamantly refusing to help Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The group’s vice president of state operations told BuzzFeed that Ayotte’s support for the Export-Import Bank and for the Obama administration’s clean power regulations is unacceptable, and she singled the senator out as the one Republican in a competitive contest that they couldn’t get behind. There’s no doubt that other conservative groups like American Crossroads will support Ayotte, but Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan won’t complain if a few million less is spent attacking her this year.

PA-02: Stories about franking rarely get us excited, but here's a new one: Indicted Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah has been spending taxpayer dollars not only on mailings to constituents (which is what franking usually involves), but also on radio ads promoting applications to military academies and a congressional art contest (!). Fattah, whose campaign fundraising has completely dried up thanks to his criminal woes, is refusing to say how much $1.3 million House office budget is going toward this effort, but the Philadelphia Inquirer says that one radio spot cost over $20,000.

There are actually rules that forbid franking 90 days ahead of an election; in fact, they went into effect weeks ago, since the Democratic primary—which could terminate Fattah's career—is on April 26. But Fattah found a loophole that specifically allows advertising about the art contest and military academy applications. Amazing, huh? Lord knows America needs to hear about that art contest.

Of course, Fattah's hoping that if voters merely hear his name on the radio a little bit more, they'll remember to pull the lever for him come Election Day. But Fattah's already grim outlook has grown even dimmer. In a separate report, the Inqy digs up evidence that Fattah has failed to properly record his campaign's considerable debts (many of which are to lawyers) on his fundraising reports. That means the penniless Fattah may actually owe even more than we realize. It's not too late to consider a second career and make a submission in that art contest.

NC-03: What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? We’re going to find out in the March 15 primary for this safely red coastal seat. Rep. Walter Jones beat former Bush administration official Taylor Griffin 51-45 in 2014, and Griffin is back for a rematch. The GOP establishment hates Jones, who proudly describes himself as “a thorn in people's ass,” so it’s no surprise that he hauled in just $65,000 during the fourth quarter.

But despite his DC connections, Griffin has never been a very good fundraiser. While Griffin took in $105,000, Jones still leads him $165,000 to $152,000 in cash-on-hand. A third candidate, retired Marine Phil Law, only has $38,000 to spend, but he could take enough support from Griffin to secure Jones renomination. No major outside groups have gotten involved yet.

NY-21: Democrats lost this 52-46 Obama seat last cycle, and it doesn’t look like this ancestrally Republican seat will be flipping back this year. Freshman Elise Stefanik raised a decent $221,000 in the fourth quarter, which is a whole lot more than retired Col. Mike Derrick’s $63,000; as of Dec. 31, Stefanik holds a $928,000 to $139,000 cash-on-hand lead. Ominously, the DCCC didn’t include this seat in either their “Red to Blue” or “Emerging Races” lists.

NV-04: A little while back, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who is running for Congress, endorsed Bernie Sanders, and now Sanders has returned the favor. He's not formally endorsing Flores, but he is featuring her as the narrator of a new TV ad in which she discusses her difficult upbringing and explains that's why she's backing Sanders. Flores, of course, is the lucky beneficiary here because she happens to be seeking office in Nevada, the site of the next caucuses in the Democratic presidential primary. And as an Hispanic woman, she can also help Sanders reach out to constituencies that have mostly favored Hillary Clinton.

But one of Flores' primary rivals, state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, has complained that the spot constitutes either an in-kind donation from Sanders to Flores, or represents improper coordination between the two campaigns. However, few elections are decided by FEC complaints, and the caucuses are just a week away, so this will all likely be forgotten by the time Nevada's June 14 congressional primaries roll around.

NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed came close to losing to an untouted foe in 2012, but he easily won during 2014’s GOP wave. Democrats landed former National Security Council member John Plumb for this 50-48 Romney seat, but while he brought in a respectable $225,000 over the summer, he raised a much more-modest $151,000 during the fourth quarter. Reed somehow burned through $226,000 of the $370,000 he raised during this time, but he has a $879,000 to $294,000 cash-on-hand edge as of Dec. 31. The DCCC recently placed Plumb on their “Emerging Races” list, which indicates that, while they don’t think this is a top-tier race, Plumb has some potential.

OH-14: Sucky fundraisers are gonna stay sucky fundraisers. Tea partier Matt Lynch, a former state representative, raised just $42,000 for his primary campaign against Rep. David Joyce, and he trails $781,000 to $21,000 in cash-on-hand. The GOP primary is March 15 and no major outside groups have endorsed Lynch. Romney only narrowly carried this seat, but neither Democrat looks anywhere capable of winning here. Michael Wager lost to Joyce 66-33 in 2014, while retired Ashtabula County Judge Alfred Mackey was actually arrested last month.

IA-02: While Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack has struggled in midterm years, he’s won this 56-43 Obama seat with ease in presidential cycles. It doesn’t look like 2016 will be any different: While Republican state Sen. Mark Chelgren kicked off his campaign in early October, he didn’t report raising any money during the next three months. In any case, Chelgren is probably too extreme to win here without a massive GOP wave.

NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell may face a challenge from a well-known North Jersey politician, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be sweating bullets over it. Former Paterson Mayor Jeffery Jones has been a rival of Pascrell’s for decades, and there’s been some recent speculation that Jones will challenge the congressman this year. Jones himself only said “no comment” when asked about his plans, and sources close to him told Paterson Press  that Jones will announce what he’s doing sometime in the next few weeks.

Jones won the mayor’s office in 2010 after being badly outspent, but he took fourth place during his re-election campaign four years later. Residents were frustrated with Jones’ response to a snowstorm and by a controversy over his cabinet’s overtime pay, and Pascrell and his allies mobilized against him. By contrast, Pascrell decisively won a competitive 2012 Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Steve Rothman, and he carried Patterson’s Passaic county with 90 percent of the vote. Pascrell is almost 80, but his campaign is collecting petitions to get him on the ballot. It’s not clear if Jones plans to challenge Pascrell in the Democratic primary or in the general as a Republican or an independent. Obama won this seat 68-31.

NV-Sen: Hey look, Sharron Angle is talking about running for the Senate again! The Nevada filing deadline is March 18.

PA-Sen: If Katie McGinty doesn’t win the April Democratic primary, it won’t be because she lacked labor support. The Philadelphia Building & Construction Trades Council, which includes 40 Philadelphia unions, has endorsed McGinty. The group’s business manager is John Dougherty, whom PoliticsPA calls “perhaps the most powerful union leader in the commonwealth.” McGinty, who used to serve as Gov. Tom Wolf’s chief of staff, faces 2010 nominee Joe Sestak and Braddock Mayor John Fetterman for the right to take on Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Sestak has more money than McGinty, but she has the support of influential state and local Democrats; Fetterman has struggled to raise cash.

NY-22: On Thursday, businessman Steve Wells kicked off his bid for the GOP nod. Wells serves as the state GOP’s upstate regional finance chair, so it sounds like he has some good connections, and the Madison County Republican Committee immediately endorsed him. Wells runs American Food and Vending Corp., which Syracuse.com describes as “one of the nation's fastest-growing food service companies,” so he may have the ability to self-fund if he wants to.

Wells will face Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney and former Broome County Legislator George Phillips in the GOP primary. Neither Tenney nor Phillips are exactly ideal candidates for an open seat that Romney only narrowly won: Tenney is a tea partier and Phillips hasn’t had much electoral success. We’ll see if local and national Republicans consolidate behind Wells, or if they continue to yearn for someone else. Democrats haven’t had much luck finding a good candidate here, though Broome County Legislator Kim Myers hasn’t said no yet.

AL-Sen: Former Marine Jonathan McConnell has all but begged outside groups to come to his aid in his March 1 primary against Sen. Richard Shelby, but no one’s rushing to spend money on what looks like a hopeless race. But Shelby’s allies aren’t hesitating to help the well-funded GOP senator. 

Citizens for a Sound Government, which is run by former Senate GOP operatives, has bought $45,000 in TV ads, and they recently spent $413,000 here. The group is actually trying to crowdfund a new pro-Shelby digital ad, which seems like the biggest waste of money since my ill-fated “Give me money so I can take off work to watch the Star Wars Holiday Special” Kickstarter campaign. A similar-sounding group, Citizens Super PAC, has also spent $309,000 on TV and online ads for Shelby. The Citizens is largely funded by coal mining businessman Robert Murray.

AZ-01: So far, this has not been the best campaign for Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu. Most seriously, an old video surfaced proving that, despite Babeu’s protests to the contrary, he knew about the abusive practices that happened under his watch while he served as a school headmaster. Babeu’s campaign for the GOP nod also doesn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders: Babeu filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC three months late, and he repeatedly filed to run in the wrong district. But Babeu’s fundraising has been going well at least. Babeu raised $308,000 during the final three months of the year, and he had $250,000 on hand on Dec. 31.

The good news for Babeu is that he has more money than two of his three major primary rivals. State House Speaker David Gowan only has $158,000 in the bank: Very little of Gowan’s legislative district is in the 1st so if he doesn’t have the money to get his name out, he’ll have a tough time winning. Ex-Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who ran for governor last cycle, had $170,000 in the bank. However, rancher Gary Kiehne has been largely self-financing his bid, and he had $529,000 in the bank. Kiehne came very close to winning the 2014 primary and given Babeu’s problems and Bennett and Gowan’s relative lack of funds, he may be able to pull it off this time. Another candidate, 2014 9th District nominee Wendy Rogers, entered the race last month.

The winner is likely to face Tom O'Halleran, a former Republican state senator who recently joined the Democratic party. Romney carried this seat 50-48 but O'Halleran’s own fundraising has been pretty bad: At the end of the year, he had just $172,000 in the bank. The DCCC notably passed O'Halleran over for their “Red to Blue” program and instead listed him in the second-tier “Emerging Races,” a good indication that, while they think he can win, they’re not happy with how his campaign is progressing so far.

IL-15: The Club for Growth recently launched a TV spot to help state Sen. Kyle McCarter’s cash-strapped GOP primary campaign against Rep. John Shimkus, and we now have an idea of the size of the buy. According to The News-Gazette, the Club has spent about $275,000 so far, which is a bit less than the $400,000 it recently dropped in two other seats. Shimkus has a huge financial edge over McCarter, and an unanswered poll gave the congressman a 65-13 lead, so McCarter is going to need a lot more help from the Club if he wants to pull off an upset on March 15.

Demographics: Several months ago Pew Research issued a remarkably thorough study showing that the American middle class has slowly shrunk over the decades since 1970 (though with one caveat that’s sort of good news: more people moved up than down in that period). They did break the changes down across occupations, but one glaring omission was that they didn’t seem to factor in was the great economic variation from place to place in the United States, and that the economy has gotten much spikier than it used to be (i.e. an increasingly large disparity between thriving metropolitan areas and dwindling rural areas).

Now Pew has released some additional data, looking at the changes at the state level. Unfortunately (probably hampered by limited data from older Censuses), they only cover the period between 2000 and 2014, but even in that limited time frame, the pattern still clearly exists. Only one state (Hawaii) saw its middle class (defined as households making between two-third and two times the inflation-adjusted median income, taking household size into account) grow in that period, while it shrank in 49 states.

The sort-of-good news (if you disregard the harm to the broader economy that’s caused by the shrinking consumer purchasing power associated with increasing economic inequality), though, is that in 42 states, more people moved up into the upper tier than down into the lower tier. The states where that didn’t happen were Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.

Undercutting that positive news, though, is that in all but four states (essentially the states that saw the fracking boom: North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming), the inflation-adjusted median income went down in that same period from 2000 to 2014. However, it’s worth noting that real income hasn't fallen much since 2000. And also, 2000 is a bit of an anomaly, basically the economy's all-time high-water mark at the tail end of the 1990s economic expansion, so using that as a starting point instead of 1970 like in the larger study distorts the impact.

TX-29: The state AFL-CIO has throw its support behind Rep. Gene Green, who faces a challenge from ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia in the March 1 Democratic primary. While Garcia is hoping that the seat’s overwhelmingly Hispanic electorate will choose him over Green (Garcia is Latino and Green is Anglo), prominent local and national Hispanic legislators have endorsed Green, and the incumbent has a huge financial edge.

NH-02: GOP state Rep. Jack Flanagan has expressed interest in challenging Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster, and he stepped down as majority leader a few months ago to prepare for a bid. Flanagan hasn’t announced that he’s in yet, but WMUR reports that he will kick off his campaign in early March. Obama carried this seat 54-45 and Kuster is a very strong fundraiser, so Flanagan will have his work cut out for him.

MT-AL, UT-04: Are you a Republican congressional candidate who wants to look like a fantastic fundraiser without actually doing any of that pesky fundraising? Well, I know someone you should talk to. No, it’s not that woman at the liquor store who keeps urging you to buy 300 lottery tickets. No, it’s not that prince in your spam folder. No, it’s not that political consultant who tells you if you plant these three beans and water them daily, they’ll eventually sprout into a magic beanstalk that leads directly to an FEC account in the clouds that’s already loaded with $3,000,000 for you to spend. And whatever you do, don’t talk to New Hampshire GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, who will just say, “Get a loan from your parents!” No, Marco Rubio is the guy to ask!

You see, before Rubio was frustrating everyone from his debate coach to his dentist, he was the clear underdog against Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in the GOP Senate primary. In the summer of 2009, Rubio was facing calls to drop out of what looked like a hopeless race against Crist, the favorite of the Republican establishment in both Florida and DC. As the Tampa Bay Times’ Adam Smith explains in a great 2010 article, Rubio resisted calls to just get out of Crist’s way and run for attorney general, but his stubbornness could only take him so far. Rubio had only raised $340,000 from April to June, and he knew if he turned in another weak quarter, he’d lose any hope of looking like a viable candidate.

So Rubio took a big risk on direct mail to temporarily augment his fundraising. Direct mail brings in tons of money but costs so much to implement that candidates end up netting very little. Rubio and his team knew full well that they wouldn’t be keeping most of his cash, but that wasn’t the point: By turning in an eye-popping quarter, Rubio could draw lots of attention and endorsements from Crist-hating Republicans, who would actually donate money to him that he could actually use later. 

And it worked: In October, Rubio reported that he’d raised $1 million for the quarter. The well-funded Club for Growth quickly endorsed him and suddenly, Rubio’s once hopeless campaign had momentum. The world eventually found out that Rubio had burned through most of the cash he’d brought in, but by then, it didn’t matter. As one of Rubio’s advisors later put it, his direct mail stunt “was one-third confidence in our long-term prospects, one-third rolling of the dice, and one-third smoke and mirrors.”

For all Rubio’s problems in 2016, his 2009 move worked out pretty damn well for him, and it’s no surprise to see that some Republican candidates are still utilizing direct mail, even though they undoubtedly know how much it’ll cost them. However, while Montana’s Ryan Zinke and Utah’s Mia Love used direct mail during their 2014 campaigns, they haven’t given it up at all. even though they’re now incumbents. During the final three months of 2015, Zinke raised a monster $577,000 but he spent $597,000, leaving him with slightly less money in the bank than he had three months before. Love’s in a similar same boat: She raised $314,000 but spent $302,000, so she only netted a little bit of cash.

Both Zinke and Love sit in red districts, but both of them face credible Democratic contenders. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau raised $262,000 during her first quarter in the race, and unlike Zinke, she kept most of it. Juneau trails Zinke $744,000 to $240,000, which isn’t bad for this early in the race. Montana went for Romney 55-42 but the state still elects Democrats to downballot offices (Democratic Sen. Jon Tester won a tough race in 2012 for example), and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Juneau to pull off a win. 

Doug Owens actually came close to beating Love during last year’s GOP wave, and the DCCC has named him to their “Red to Blue” program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. Doug hauled in $350,000, which is actually more than Love, and he only trails her $781,000 to $500,000 in cash on hand. Love won’t be easy to beat but she’s drawn some bad headlines for improperly billing taxpayers for her travels.

Unlike Rubio, Zinke and Love are already in Congress, so why are they still relying on scammy fundraising tactics? It’s possible that they just don’t care. After all, they won while using direct mail, so why shouldn’t they keep dancing with the one that brung ‘em? Both members may also be hoping to just expand their donor list by direct mail: While they may need to waste a ton now to acquire more donors, they can contact those donors later through much cheaper methods. Still, given how little cash Zinke and Love are netting, it doesn’t seem like they’re doing this right now.

Both members may also hope that, by repeatedly turning in what look like massive quarters, they’ll create buzz for future races. Indeed, one Montana political science professor noted that Zinke’s “shock and awe” strategy signals he’s a serious contender for higher office. Tester is up for re-election in 2018 and if Zinke wants to take him on, raising a lot of money is a good way to do it.

As one of the few people of color in the GOP caucus, Love also gets plenty of attention, and she may want to run in 2018 if Sen. Orrin Hatch retires. (Hatch said in 2012 that this would be his last term, but he’s declined to rule out another campaign since then.) But even if they win re-election this year, a complacent campaign could lead to a weak victory for either member, which could shatter their future dreams. But one thing’s for sure: As long as candidates need to inflate their totals, direct mail companies aren’t going out of business.

MD-Sen: Now that Rep. Elijah Cummings has decided not to run for the Senate, Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards is the only credible African American candidate here. However, the Congressional Black Caucus’ PAC voted not to endorse her on Thursday, and board members tell Politico that they’re unlikely to reconsider.

Politico reports that part of the reason the Edwards doesn’t have a good relationship with several members of the Congressional Black Caucus, which led them to spurn her. However, an old rival also showed up to exact some long-awaited vengeance against Edwards. Ex-Democratic Rep. Al Wynn, whom Edwards unseated in 2008, argued that because a number of prominent Maryland African American politicians are supporting her primary rival Chris Van Hollen, the CBC shouldn’t interfere. According to one Democratic lawmaker who was at the meeting, “The room accepted this as reasonable. It is premature to weigh in when black leadership is heavily leaning toward Van Hollen.”

Edwards is relying on heavy black support to help her overcome Van Hollen’s huge financial edge in the April primary. The CBC PAC could have given her a boost: PAC board members often stump for endorsed candidates and encourage black church goers to back them. However, if Van Hollen’s African American allies help him make enough inroads with black voters, it’s going to be very hard for Edwards to overcome her financial deficit.

CA-Sen: Six years after rich guy Steve Poizner lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to the even-richer Meg Whitman, Poizner is talking about running statewide again. Poizner, who served one term as state insurance commissioner, didn’t say if he wanted to run for something in 2018 or if he’s interested in this year’s Senate race. If Poizner wants to be on the 2016 ballot, he needs to file by March 16.

FL-Sen: On Friday, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid went through the motions of trying to convince Rep. Alan Grayson to drop out of the race. Reid has made it no secret that he prefers Rep. Patrick Murphy to Grayson, so it’s not surprising that Reid decided to use a recent New York Times report documenting some of the ugly details about Grayson’s hedge fund business as an excuse to throw a few blows at him. Among other things, Reid said that “Grayson claims to be a progressive, but it seems like he has no moral compass.”

Reid couldn’t have possibility believed that someone as stubborn as Grayson would listen to him, so he couldn’t have been too disappointed when Grayson announced that he wasn’t going anywhere. Grayson made sure to tag Murphy as a “corrupt establishment errand boy,” while accusing Reid of “personally attacking the clear choice of Florida Democrats, making the party into a circular firing squad.” The Florida Democratic primary is Aug. 30.

NY-22: Tenney wasted little time hitting Wells’ Republican bona fides, arguing that he’d donated thousands to Democrats.

If Republicans aren’t happy with their choices, they may be stuck. On Friday, ex-state Sen. and 2006 nominee Ray Meier announced that he would not run. Ex-UN Food Director Catherine Bertini expressed interest in this open seat a little while ago, but she’s been quiet about her plans.

NY-05: Back in December, state Sen. James Sanders set up a campaign account to challenge Rep. Gregory Meeks in the primary for this safely blue Queens seat, but he never announced he was in. And now, he may never get the chance: Citing a source close to Sanders, the Queens Chronicle reports that the senator was recently interviewed by the FBI “regarding the senator’s allocation of discretionary city funding when he was a councilman.” A couple also recently told the New York Post that Sanders wanted kickbacks in exchange for funding their non-profit, an accusation Sanders denies.

IN-Sen: On Tuesday, the Indiana Democratic Party announced that they would challenge Republican Rep. Todd Young’s ballot petitions at the Feb. 19 state Election Division hearing. According to Hoosier Democrats, Young did not collect enough valid signatures in the state’s 1st Congressional District to get on the May primary ballot: Under Indiana law, Senate candidates need 500 valid signatures from each of the nine districts. Young’s primary rival, tea partying Rep. Marin Stutzman, smells blood, and he announced on Friday that he was also challenging Young’s place on the ballot. However, the NRSC has come to Young’s defense, and they’re arguing Team Blue is only “trying to trick the voters of Indiana.”

In order for Young to get thrown off the ballot, three of the four Election Commission members need to rule against him. There are two Democrats and two Republicans, so if the challenge breaks down along party lines, Young is safe. Young claims he has enough valid signatures, but it’s not clear if he’s bluffing. Clerks in the three counties that make up the 1st say they've certified 501 signatures, which would be just enough for Young. However, Indiana Public Broadcasting did an independent count, and they found that Young only had 497 valid petitions in the 1st. Democrats believe that Stutzman would be easier to beat than Young in this conservative state.

This is the second race in a row where the Election Commission needed to rule if a GOP Senate candidate could be on the ballot. In 2012, Sen. Dick Lugar’s rivals charged that he hadn’t been an Indiana resident in decades. But after state Attorney General Greg Zoeller reaffirmed a decades decades-old advisory opinion that said otherwise, the Commission ruled unanimously ruled that Lugar was eligible to seek re-election. (Lugar ended up losing his primary.) This is a very different matter and we’ll need to wait to see how the Commission members go, though unnamed Republicans tell Howey Politics that they don’t think either GOP member will rule against Young.

PA-02: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah has a variety of related problems: he’s in serious legal trouble, facing multiple primary opponents (most prominently state Rep. Dwight Evans), and has very little campaign money. However, on Thursday he did get one major asset that could help keep him afloat: the endorsement of the AFSCME’s District 33, a 10,000 member behemoth that may be Philadelphia’s most powerful union, representing the city’s blue-collar municipal employees.

NH-Gov: Almost every cycle, Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas is mentioned as a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate, but he never goes for it. However, while Gatsas has not publicly expressed interest in a 2016 run, GOP sources tell WMUR's John DiStaso that the mayor is “absolutely serious” about running.

It would be very weird for Gatsas to pick this cycle to finally make the jump. Just a few months ago, Gatsas won re-election by just 64 votes. Gatsas would also need to get through a competitive primary. Executive Councilor Chris Sununu, who hails from the Granite State's most prominent Republican political family, has been running for months. While Sununu recently picked up an endorsement from Charlie Bass, who used to represent half the state in the House, he hasn’t exactly scared off his intra-party foes. Wealthy state Rep. Frank Edelblut also appears to have quietly announced that he’​s in. 

Gatsas may believe that neither Sununu nor Edelblut are particularly strong. But a few other Republicans are making noises about running. While state Sen. Jeanie Forrester hasn’t said much about her plans in months, DiStaso reports that she “appears to be moving in the direction of a candidacy, but has not made a final decision.” State Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley also is keeping his name in contention. In an interview with the magazine Outside that mostly centered around hiking (the dude really likes to hike, and not in a sketchy Mark Sanford way), Bradley briefly mentioned that he’s still considering a campaign.

But while Gatsas would need to fight his way through the GOP primary and through the general in this swing state, this may be his last chance to run for governor. If another Republican wins this fall, Gatsas would be sidelined for a while. And even if Team Blue keeps the governor’s mansion, Gatsas may very well lose re-election in 2017 before he gets the chance to run the next year. New Hampshire also almost always gives governors a second two-year term: Before Republican Craig Benson was ousted in 2004, no first-term governor had lost since 1926. This may not be an ideal year for Gatsas to run, but he may not have any other choice if he truly wants the job.

Baltimore, MD Mayor: None of the candidates in the April 26 Democratic primary have spent much money on ads yet—with one exception. The Baltimore Sun reports that wealthy businessman David Warnock has already spent at least $600,000 on TV spots. State Sen. Catherine Pugh is the only other contender to air any ads so far, and she’s only dropped $3,000. Other candidates will be able to run ads as Election Day gets closer, but Warnock has the ability to stay on the air for the next two months. The Democratic nominee should have no trouble in the November general election.

DCCC: On Thursday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee rolled out the first round of its "Red to Blue" program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. There are a number of interesting things about the full list, which is broken in to two tiers, "Red to Blue" and "Emerging Races," with the latter essentially serving as the farm team for the former.

First up, Red to Blue:

• CA-24: Salud Carbajal
• CO-06: Morgan Carroll
• FL-10: Val Demings
• FL-18: Randy Perkins
• FL-26: Annette Taddeo
• IA-01: Monica Vernon
• IL-10: Brad Schneider
• ME-02: Emily Cain
• MI-01: Lon Johnson
• MI-07: Gretchen Driskell
• MN-02: Angie Craig
• NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
• NV-03: Jacky Rosen
• TX-23: Pete Gallego
• UT-04: Doug Owens
• VA-10: LuAnn Bennett

Many of these races feature contested primaries, but the D-Trip isn't hesitating to pick sides. That group includes CA-24, FL-10, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01, IL-10, and MI-01, and possibly CO-06 as well. You'll also notice that a couple of districts are seats the party isn't actually trying to turn from red to blue but rather is trying to hold, CA-24 and FL-18.

In addition, the D-Trip has also named several districts to Red to Blue without expressing any preference for a particular contender: FL-13, NV-04, NY-01, NY-24, and PA-08. FL-13 is almost shocking: They really aren't comfortable putting their thumb on the scale for Charlie Crist over Eric Lynn, a former Defense Dept. official, even though Crist’s name recognition makes him the heavy favorite in the primary. But while the DCCC isn’t usually deterred when one candidate has some local support, Lynn has in his corner St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, who is very prominent.

The rest are notable as well, because at least one candidate in each contest has earned some favorable notice from the national establishment: Harry Reid's backing Ruben Kihuen in NV-04; Steve Israel's for Anna Throne-Holst in NY-01; Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer are behind Colleen Deacon in NY-24; and EMILY's List and Gillibrand have endorsed Shaughnessy Naughton in PA-08. It once again goes to show that the "establishment" is no monolithic thing.

Then we have the Emerging Races:

• AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran
• CA-10: Michael Eggman
• MI-08: Melissa Gilbert
• MT-AL: Denise Juneau
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter
• NY-23: John Plumb
• PA-07: Bill Golderer
• WV-02: Cory Simpson

AZ-01 is the only defensive hold on this list, and it's a bit concerning to see O'Halleran, a former Republican state senator who recently joined the Democratic Party, only making the second tier, given how tough of a district this is. However, O'Halleran’s fundraising hasn’t been very strong: As of the end of December, he had just $172,000 in the bank. 

It's also quite unexpected to see Carol Shea-Porter, a former member of Congress, get relegated as well. CSP has never been a particularly strong fundraiser, but she's won races in the past in spite of that, and New Hampshire's tendency to gyrate wildly puts this seat on the map this year almost no matter what.

Lastly, the DCCC also included a pair of "Emerging Districts," again, without choosing a specific candidate: IA-03 and NY-19. The latter is where law professor Zephyr Teachout recently announced a run, but she also faces Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik. Evidently both have something to prove to the power-brokers in Washington.

WI-08: A number of Republicans, and a few Democrats, have talked about running for this open 51-48 Romney seat, but no one has jumped in yet. Republican Mike Gallagher, a veteran who was Scott Walker’s foreign policy advisor during the governor’s presidential campaign, is the latest to express interest (though he was first mentioned as a possibility last week). While Gallagher hasn’t said much about his plans, a number of local business leaders, including two current Green Bay Packers board members, are calling for him to get in.

DCCC: There are also several notable districts that didn't make either level of the DCCC's list, the most notable of which are AZ-02, CA-25, IL-12, IN-02, NY-03, NY-21, and PA-06. These are all Republican seats except NY-03, which will be a tricky Democratic hold. In all the rest, Democratic recruiment hasn't been especially strong, and the D-Trip may yet add more races as candidates prove themselves. But AZ-02, for instance, was the closest House race in the nation in 2014. If it's not on the table this fall, that would be extremely disappointing.

VA-02: Rep. Randy Forbes recently released a poll showing him defeating state Del. Scott Taylor by a 43-24 margin in the GOP primary, but Taylor isn’t letting it go unanswered. Taylor quickly unveiled a late January survey from Tel Opinion Research that showed the men deadlocked, each with a third of the vote. Forbes decided to run in this Hampton Roads seat after his old Tidewater district turned safely blue: Forbes is arguing that his seniority will benefit the area, while Taylor is portraying Forbes as an outsider. It's unclear at this point if the GOP will hold a June primary here or nominate its candidate at a firehouse primary or through a party convention.

FL-06, FL-07: Court-ordered redistricting made these two seats much bluer but so far, Democrats aren’t capitalizing. Democratic state Rep. Dwayne Taylor has been running for the open 6th District since October, but he only had $3,000 in the bank at the end of the year. Three Republicans, Navy vet Brandon Patty and state Reps. Fred Costello and David Santiago, entered the race in January, so we’ll need to wait until mid-April for a peak at their fundraising. Romney carried this seat 52-47.

While the new 7th District split almost evenly between Obama and Romney, Republican Rep. John Mica will not be easy to unseat. Political consultant Bill Phillips got some attention when he kicked off his bid in October, but he raised just $36,000 before the end of 2015. Mica holds a $535,000 to $20,000 cash-on-hand edge. Unless Team Blue finds better candidates or Taylor and Phillips really bulk up their warchests, these seats will stay red.

MI-13: Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey kicked off a primary bid against longtime Rep. John Conyers a few months ago, but it doesn’t look like there will be much to see here come August. Winfrey raised just $1,000 during the final months of 2015: While Conyers’ $36,000 warchest is far from overwhelming, it’s a lot better than the $7,000 she has in the bank.

PA-AG: In what might seem like a remarkable development, the Pennsylvania state Senate failed to gain the necessary two-thirds vote of its members in order to remove indicted Attorney General Kathleen Kane from office on Wednesday. The vote largely broke down along party lines, with only one Democrat joining 28 Republicans to support the ouster, while 19 Democrats said nay.

But Democrats weren't defending Kane, who has lost the confidence of just about everyone in her party after she was charged with illegally leaking grand jury materials then lying about it. Rather, Democrats were opposed to the arcane procedure the GOP tried to employ, which hadn't been used in over a century and only required a two-thirds vote of the Senate to remove an elected official "for cause."

This was an attempt to short-circuit the traditional (and much lengthier) impeachment process, which requires the state House to investigate and the Senate to conduct a trial. But that's moving forward as well: Also on Wednesday, the House voted overwhelmingly to authorize a sub-committee to investigate whether articles of impeachment should be filed against Kane. The committee's findings are expected this spring. Kane, meanwhile, is set to face a criminal trial in August.

NY-01: Another prominent New York congressman has given his backing to former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst: Rep. Jerry Nadler, who is known as a stalwart liberal. Throne-Holst, who had previously earned the backing of Steve Israel and others, faces venture capitalist Dave Calone in the Democratic primary for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin.

NY-19: New York's union-backed Working Families Party infamously spurned Zephyr Teachout when she ran for governor in 2014, instead giving their endorsement to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in exchange for a boatload of promises he never intended to keep and predictably never did. Now, though, they're trying to make amends by supporting Teachout's bid for Congress in the Hudson Valley, where she faces Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik in the Democratic primary.

Before they damaged their reputation by siding with the reactionary Cuomo, the WFP was known for its ability to deliver proverbial boots on the ground. If they come through for Teachout, that ought to give her a boost, though her name recognition and what will likely be stronger fundraising should already give her an edge for the nomination. Yandik's key advantage will be his local ties, as Teachout only recently moved into the district. Republicans, meanwhile, are duking it out between businessman Andrew Heaney and former Assembly Minority Leader John Faso, both of whom have decent-sized war chests.

MI-10: While businessman Paul Mitchell doesn’t have many ties to this suburban Detroit seat, he has something neither of his two GOP primary foes have: cold hard cash. Mitchell has largely been self-funding his bid, and he had a strong $770,000 warchest at the end of the year. State Sen. Phil Pavlov, who represents about a third of this seat in the legislature, only had $131,000 to spend, while ex-state Sen. Alan Sanborn had only $22,000 on hand.

Mitchell ran in the rural 4th District last cycle, and only moved to this suburban Detroit seat last year. Money didn’t buy him much love in the 2014 GOP primary: While he decisively outspent John Moolenaar, Mitchell still lost 52-36. Romney won the 10th 55-44.

SC-01: State Rep. Jenny Horne drew national attention last year when she called for the Confederate flag to be removed from the South Carolina state House grounds. However, that doesn’t seem to be doing much for her in her GOP primary bid against Rep. Mark Sanford. In the final three months of December, Horne raised just $32,000, and Sanford holds a huge $806,000 to $24,000 cash-on-hand edge. While Sanford himself was in the spotlight during his 2009 sex scandal and 2013 comeback campaign, he’s largely kept his head down since he got back to Congress, and there’s no indication that primary voters want to oust him.

FL-Sen: This is some story. We've known for quite some time that the House Ethics Committee is investigating Rep. Alan Grayson for possibly violating House rules by operating a hedge fund, but the New York Times offers some stunning new particulars on how Grayson runs his business. Marketing materials for his fund explain that Grayson specializes in "markets in turmoil due to economic, political, or natural disasters" and cites an infamous quote attributed to Baron Rothschild that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." These kinds of sentiments are usually propounded by vulture capitalists, not self-styled progressives.

There are many other troubling details in this report, but the most noteworthy comes from a chain of private emails from last June obtained by the Times. In it, Grayson's former campaign manager Doug Dodson begged his boss to just shut down the fund because it had turned into a "drip, drip, drip story that never goes away and we always come out on the wrong end" (while still delusionally blaming it on a conspiracy of reporters who "want to write this story badly"). Grayson refused, saying "the media might take that as an admission of wrongdoing."

What makes these emails all the more remarkable is that someone from Grayson's camp leaked them to the paper in an effort to blow Grayson up. It's not clear who, but multiple email addresses in the cc: field have been redacted—and Grayson's parted ways with a lot of staffers recently, including Dodson. It says a lot about the congressman that a (presumably former) confidante has grown so disgusted he or she now wants to stop Grayson at all costs.

Grayson, of course, still can't understand why anyone has a problem with anything he's done, saying, "Honestly, it's very frustrating to me. This whole insinuation that I have done something improper." Maybe if everyone around you thinks you've done something wrong and you're pretty much the only person who thinks you haven't, you ought to reconsider.

CA-32: Assemblyman Roger Hernandez appeared to catch Rep. Grace Napolitano, a fellow Democrat, by surprise when he announced that he’d challenge her in mid-December. Napolitano hasn’t faced a competitive race since she was first elected to Congress in 1998, and we wondered if she’d be able to raise the type of money she’ll need to defend herself.

Napolitano brought in $113,000 for the final three months of 2015, which is slightly more than she raised during the other nine months of the year. Hernandez himself raised $89,000, and loaned himself another $80,000; Napolitano leads him $414,000 to $169,000 in cash-on-hand. There wasn’t a race here for most of the quarter, so we’ll need to wait until April to get a better idea of both candidates’ fundraising capabilities.

Hernandez himself has drawn some ugly headlines over the last few years. A former girlfriend accused of physical abuse in 2012, but prosecutors declined to file charges. That same year, he beat a charge of drunk driving by convincing a jury that police had mishandled evidence and that his eyes were bloodshot because of "allergies." The stories do appear to have done him some electoral damage at home though. In 2012, Hernandez beat his GOP foe 59-41 while Obama was carrying his seat 64-33, and Hernandez won 54-46 in 2014 as Gov. Jerry Brown was taking the seat 58-42. Napolitano lives in another district, and Hernandez is hoping to make that a major liability for her. Obama carried the 32nd District 65-33, so there’s no risk of a GOP pickup. However, if just one Republican runs in the June top-two primary, there’s a good chance that only one of the Democrats will advance to November.

NH-Gov: On Thursday, Gatsas told WMUR that he is “seriously considering” running, though he says he doesn’t know when he’ll decide. Gatsas acknowledged that he’s thought about seeking the governorship before but feels “much stronger” since his recent heart surgery.

PA-06: On Monday, Rep. Matt Cartwright endorsed Lindy Li’s campaign against GOP Rep. Ryan Costello. Cartwright hails from Scranton, so he probably doesn’t carry too much influence with voters in this suburban Philadelphia seat. But Cartwright is wealthy, and he’ll be an asset for Li if he can introduce her to donors.

Li faces Mike Parrish for the right to take on Costello in this light red district. However, while powerful local Rep. Bob Brady and a few other House members have sided with Li and ex-Gov. Ed Rendell is in Parrish’s corner, the DCCC doesn’t sound optimistic about this race, since they didn’t include this seat on either their “Red-to-Blue” or “Emerging Races” list. (See our DCCC item for more.)

MD-08: On Thursday, the National Education Association's PAC endorsed state Sen. Jamie Raskin in the crowded primary for this safely blue seat. The state NEA branch has about 71,000 members so this isn’t a bad get for Raskin, though it’s unclear how the group plans to get involved in this contest.

IL-15: State Sen. Kyle McCarter hasn’t raised much money for his primary bid against GOP Rep. John Shimkus, but the Club for Growth is taking to the airwaves to help him. The Club’s spot hits Shimkus for breaking his term-limits pledge years ago, and argues he’s “one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress.” The narrator then tells the audience that McCarter “know’s the country’s in trouble, and a guy whose been in DC 20 years ain’t gonna fix it.” Shimkus actually unintentionally made a similar argument himself in a very recent poorly thought-out ad. There is no word on the size of the buy yet, though the Club spent $400,000 each in two other primaries this week.

NV-04: A new PPP poll, conducted on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, finds former state Assemblywoman Lucy Flores with a 29-9 lead over non-profit president Susie Lee, with former Assembly Speaker John Oceguera at 7 and state Sen. Ruben Kihuen at 6. (PCCC has endorsed Flores.) These numbers are almost identical to those in a PPP internal for Flores from last June.

As we noted at the time, Flores' lead is almost certainly a product of her 2014 bid for lieutenant governor; while she got crushed, it helped increase her name recognition. It's unsurprising that things haven't changed since then, since no candidate has yet to run any paid media or fully activate their ground operations. That's a real problem for Flores, who's proven to be the weakest fundraiser of this foursome. Once her rivals (especially Lee, who's done some self-funding) start advertising, the picture will change.

TX-29: While ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia’s decision to challenge Rep. Gene Green in the Democratic primary caught the incumbent by surprise, Green wisely stockpiled enough money over the years to defend himself. Green recently reserved $240,000 worth of airtime for the weeks leading up to the March 1 primary. Garcia only had $73,000 in the bank at the end of 2015 (Green had $1.25 million) and even if he’s raised a lot more since then, it’s very likely that Green will dramatically outspend him.

CA-Sen: With Assemblyman Rocky Chavez's entertaining "you can take this debate and shove it" exit from the Golden State's Senate race, that's left two Republicans in the running: Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro, both of whom are former state party chairs (the former from 2003 to 2007, the latter from 2011 to 2013). And it looks like the GOP can't get enough of that wonderful Duf: Rep. Mimi Walters and state Senate Minority Leader Jean Fuller just gave Sundheim their backing, following House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin. Del Beccaro, meanwhile, can't seem to get any love.

Now, trying to figure out which Republican is running the best campaign for Senate in California might seem as pointless as wondering who the Knicks will feature in their starting lineup against the Warriors, since both the Knicks and the GOP are going to lose no matter what. But there's one weird catch: Thanks to California's top-two primary, if a single Republican can consolidate enough support, he could deny a spot in the November general election to one of the two main Democrats running, state Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez.

Right now, Sanchez trails Harris by every metric including polling, but her one shot is to prolong their fight until the general election, when Sanchez could try to run to Harris' right and ride Republican votes to victory. Harris, the choice of the Democratic establishment and a possible presidential contender some day would not want to go that route herself. Instead, she'd rather see Sundheim deny that second spot to Sanchez, since she'd crush him in the end. In fact, don't be surprised if we see some Democrats try to ratfuck the primary precisely to help Sundheim, screw Sanchez, and benefit Harris. We've definitely seen that kind of thing before.

TN-04: Former Romney aide Grant Starrett raised a ton of cash when he kicked off his primary bid against Rep. Scott Desjarlais but since then, Starrett’s fundraising has slowed to a trickle. For the second quarter in a row, Starrett raised just north of $90,000. The good news for Starrett is that Desjarlais is doing even worse: The incumbent hauled in only $57,000, and Starrett holds a $729,000 to $241,000 cash-on-hand edge.

This isn’t the first time Desjarlais has faced a well-funded primary challenge in this safely red seat. In 2012, voters learned that the married congressman had affairs with several of his patients while he was a practicing physician, and tried to convince at least one to get an abortion. At this time in the 2014 cycle, state Sen. Jim Tracy had an $845,000 to $154,000 cash advantage over Desjarlais, and the incumbent looked doom. However, the passage of the time helped make Desjarlais’ scandal less important to voters, and Tracy ran an unfocused campaign: Desjarlais ended up winning by 38 votes. By the time the August primary rolls around, Desjarlais’ scandal will be almost four years old, and Starrett will need to do what Tracy couldn’t quite do and convince voters that Desjarlais’ old transgressions still matter.