Analyst: Gas prices may have hit low point

Motorists can expect market volatility to continue as many factors play into determining prices

BOSTON, Feb. 15 2016 – The national average for a gallon of gas has dropped to $1.695 per gallon as of Monday morning, the lowest since January 6, 2009, and now doesn’t appear as likely to drop under the $1.592 a gallon price, the roadblock for the national average to drop to a 12-year low. Diesel prices have also fallen under $2 per gallon and stand at $1.986 per gallon.

“In the words of George Jones, ‘it don’t get any better than this,'” said Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy.com head petroleum analyst. “George wasn’t talking about gas prices, but his country hit certainly feels applicable to how we feel about retail gasoline prices. Oil markets are closed today, but electronic trading open, and continued chatter about a production cut has pushed oil back over $30 a barrel. While the West Coast may see more declines, more and more increases will be coming to pumps in days near you… I’ll call it our pump transition week. Some decreases will show up, but we’re in the 9th inning of the ballgame, and it’s really anyone’s game (go Cubs!) to this point,” he said.

The U.S. starts the week with over 30% of gas stations under $1.50 per gallon, and just 11.5% over $2 per gallon. Just five states: Hawaii ($2.62), California ($2.41), Alaska ($2.24), Nevada ($2.09) and Washington ($2.04) remain over a $2 gallon average. On the bottom of the spectrum are Oklahoma ($1.35), Missouri ($1.39), Kansas ($1.41), Minnesota ($1.45) and Arkansas ($1.48), but some increases will likely hit these Midwestern states as refiners have cut back production of gasoline and other refined fuels.

Seeing the biggest savings at the pump versus gas prices a year ago: Illinois (83 cents), Indiana (77 cents), Kentucky (75 cents), Michigan (74 cents) and Minnesota (74 cents). Some metro areas in Illinois are seeing the largest yearly savings of any markets in the country: Kankakee, IL is 96 cents lower, Decatur 91 cents, Springfield 90 cents, Danville 88 cents, and Lake County 88 cents.

Diesel prices are also very low in the nation’s midsection: Oklahoma ($1.65), Montana ($1.72), Missouri ($1.72), Colorado ($1.73) and Kansas ($1.78) enjoy the cheapest average price for diesel. Hawaii is on another planet when it comes to diesel- its average stands at $4.29 per gallon, nearly $2/gallon higher than second place Connecticut ($2.36).

Oil prices and wholesale gasoline prices started off last week plunging to new decade-plus lows before quickly finding a floor and rallying sharply to finish the week. Crude oil rose 12% Friday after increased talks of some sort of production cuts spawned the bulls to jump back into oil. Meanwhile Great Lakes wholesale gasoline prices rallied an astonishing 72% between Tuesday and Friday’s closing price, leading retail prices to spike in the Great Lakes, and could deliver another hike this week in that region.

Motorists can expect market volatility to continue as commodities digest a growing number of factors that may affect oil: China’s economy, Iran’s oil output, a possible production cut, U.S. seasonal refinery maintenance, the value of the U.S. dollar, high oil and gasoline inventories, and rising demand.