Election Predictions

Wed, Oct 31, 2012, 8:29 am // Riley Sweeney

Hello NWCitizens,

This is your shot at fame and glory as a political pundit. Sidle on up to the comments and give us your predictions on local, state and national races. Obama, Romney or a surprise Jill Stein victory? What about the governor's race? Will it be Suzan Delbene or John Koster in Congress next year? Will the Tea Party twins from north county (Jason Overstreet and Vincent Buys) beat their Democratic challengers? What about the initiatives?

Put on your prognosticator hat and make your predictions today!

Comments (4) To add a comment, click here to login or register.

Craig Mayberry // Wed, Oct 31, 2012, 1:54 pm

Riley,
Can you put a template in the comment section to cover which ones you want us to choose. There are a lot of races and iniatives so it would be helpful to have a list that we can work off of.
Craig

Riley Sweeney // Wed, Oct 31, 2012, 2:02 pm

If I were to pick the close races this year, this is where I would start.

President
1st Congressional District
Governor
42nd LD, Pos. 1
42nd LD, Pos. 2
Whatcom Superior Court
Ref. 74
I-502
I-1240

Anything else you think is going to surprise people

Riley Sweeney // Fri, Nov 02, 2012, 10:22 am

Well, since there has been a FLOOD of activity and predictions . . . I’ll get us started.
Again, not my recommendations, just what I think is going to happen.

President - Obama
1st Congressional District - DelBene
Governor - Rob McKenna and it is going to make me cry
42nd LD, Pos. 1 - Jason Overstreet by a healthy couple of points
42nd LD, Pos. 2 - Vincent Buys but it will be close enough to make me cry.
Whatcom Superior Court - David Grant by a nose
Ref. 74 - Approved
I-502 - Approved
I-1240 - Approved

However, if turnout is hitting historically high levels then Matt Krogh could edge out Vincent Buys.

Craig Mayberry // Fri, Nov 02, 2012, 3:32 pm

President- Romney- will not even be close
1st Congressional District- DelBene, but this could be close I am not sure what the party demographics are given the redistricting.
Governor- Inslee
42nd LD,Pos 1- Overstreet (I think Overstreet has a better chance of being defeated than Buys just because his opponent is stronger and has better name recognition than Buys opponent)
42nd LD, Pos 2- Buys
Superiour Court- Grant
Ref 74- Approved
I-502- not approved
I-1240- Approved

In terms of the presidential race I think it is looking a lot more like 2010 then 2008. The media are calling it close, but a lot of the underlying data is looking to favor Romney and I would not be that surprised if Romney took all of the swing states and could pick up PA. There is not the enthusiasm this time out and I do believe that Republicans are more upset at Obama than the democrats are at Romney and therefore turnout will favor Republicans. Romney is winning the independent vote by a fairly wide margin so if the turnout between Democrats and Republicans is close then everything will swing to Romney. I know the Democrats have a well established ground game, but the Republicans have closed the gap and have just as good of one now. Obama has been trying to paint Romney as a far right idealogue, but that is just not even close to being accurate and the independents and frustrated democrats realize it. If anything Romney has no ideology and is much more of a solutions guy with a core of small government and self reliance (if any one responds with the Romney flip flopper argument I will simple respond with a much longer list of the Obama flip flops).