A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Am I Scared?

A football fan friend at work asked me today who I pick in the Super Bowl.  I told him the truth, I don't.  I haven't picked the Super Bowl in well over 20 years.  Of course I will prognosticate and opine about who the likely winner will be.  I will most certainly argue why I see it the way I do, reasons, stats and analysis..  But I won't pick a winner or loser.  There's two reasons. 

1)  We've all heard the phrase "on any given Sunday".  That seems most especially true if that Sunday marks the last game of the season, AFC's best against NFC's champion.  Frankly, there's just too much weird stuff that can happen when the winner of the Hunt trophy meets the winner of the Halas.  In SB 15, the Oakland Raiders became the first Wildcard team to ever win the game, behind the brilliance of a backup quarterback who still, stunningly, is not in the Hall of Fame.  Jim Plunkett threw for 3 touchdowns that day against the heavily favored Eagles.  Three years later, Plunkett won again against the favored Washington taterskins, and Marcus Allen's legend was secured.  In Super Bowl 25, the lightning fast Buffalo Bills were slowed to a crawl by the running of Otis Anderson.  They lost the game on the infamous "wide right" kick by Scott Norwood.  In SB 32, the Packers were 13+ point favorites, and were beaten by a suspect defense, a running back with a (literally) blinding migraine  and a 'washed-up' QB.  Denver avoided becoming the first team in history to be 0-5 in the 'Big Game'.  SB 34, the greatest show on turf was pushed right to edge by a Tennessee Titan's team, which fell one yard short of tying a game they were never supposed to be competitive in.  For the 40th paling of the game, the Pittsburgh Steelers did what no one thought could be done.  They went from the 6th playoff seed, through the 3rd, 1st, and 2nd seeds, to win the Lombardi trophy.  Probably the most special and surprising moment of all, the undefeated Patriots, 18-0, played the sad New York Giants.  On what I believe to be the best play in SB history, Eli Manning escaped the pass rush, with defenders grabbing and tearing his jersey to roll out and hit a receiver no one had really heard of named David Tyree.  In triple coverage, Tyree pinned the ball against his helmet for the catch, and the Giants went on to send the Hatriots to 18-1.  Finally, last year.  Malcolm Butler intercepts an inexplicably called pass by Wilson on the Patriot's goal line to give New England their 4th Super Bowl victory in the Darth Belichick era.  Anything can and will happen on SB Sunday.

2)  I just want to enjoy the game.  Picking all the games during the season and playoffs leaves me strangely pulled to root for the teams I pick, with notable exceptions.  The Super Bowl is the moment for fans to just pull and cheer for whomever they want to win.  No one who doesn't get paid to do so should have to pick a winner based on reason or logic.  Pick who you want to win and go with that.  Enjoy the moment, because it won't come again for 8 long months until the regular season begins.  I will always root for whomever I see fit, usually the AFC.  But I do have my favorites.  I will root for anyone who plays against the Patriots.  Anyone.  And, of course, I will always root for the Broncos.  This year, Denver joins the Cowboys, the Steelers and the Hatriots as 8 time attendees to the Show.  Fans of all these teams are blessed.  Imagine being a Browns or Lions fan.  Win or lose, our teams have made the biggest stage the most number of times, and we get to just enjoy the moment.  I will never ruin that with picking a team I 'think' will win.

After this conversation with my friend wound around for a bit, he asked me, "Aren't you scared that the Broncos will lose like they did 2 years ago?"  No.  No I'm not.  I'm a Bronco fan.  I've seen the worst already.  The most points given up in a quarter?  35 points Denver gave up to Washington in the second quarter of SB 22.  The fastest points scored in the Sooper Bowl was 2, earned by Seattle and given up by the Broncos by a bad snap in SB 48.  The greatest offense in NFL history was crushed by 35 points.  The worst defeat in Super Bowl History was SB 24, 55 to 10, 49ers over Denver.  In SB 21, the Broncos let a fair to middlin' QB throw for a record 22  of 25 completions.   The Broncos have lost 5 Sooper Dooper Bowls, one more than Minnesota, one more than Buffalo and one more than New England.  I've seen the worst, and it doesn't scare me.

The Broncos have won 8 Lamar Hunt trophies.  In my life, I get to see the Broncos play on the biggest stage 8 times.  I'm well aware that Carolina holds all the cards with their young super hero QB.  I know they have an aggressive defense which scores points off of opponent mistakes.  The Panthers are favored and likely should be.  I don't care.  Peyton Manning told Darth Belichick this might be his last rodeo.  I don't care.  Peyton Manning is still the smartest QB to have ever played the game, and this team has overcome incredible obstacles just to get to Santa Clara.  Denver has the best defense in football.  They stymied Angry Tommy, put him on the mat, threw him around like a rag doll.  Peyton makes the throws he has to make, and Denver grinds to victory.  They work for it.  They play the game.  That's enough for me.  Do I think the Broncos can win?  Of course I do.  Do I think they will?  Go to Vegas and play your odds.  I just want this game, this moment to begin.  I'm not scared.  I'm excited.

Conference Championships 2016

Try as I might, I can't wrap my head around the last 6 minutes of the KC - New England game.  Kansas City was playing as if they were slogging through mud on their way to visit the proctologist.  And so they lost a game that they were in until that death march down the field for a meaningless score.  It is my sincerest hope that New England's opponent this Sunday will at least play more passionately, as if a great prize is on the line.  Win or lose, I think the Broncos will do just that.

The other 3 games were certainly more spirited.  Seattle showed why they cannot be counted out of any contest, even when down by 31 points at the half.  In Wilson - Newton we may be looking at the next incarnation of Elway - Marino, Young - Aikman, or Brady - Manning.  Rather fitting that this be seen in the week we may be seeing the very last meeting between Angry Tommy and The Sheriff.   And for the record, I called it.  Marshawn Lynch had zero impact on that game.  For the second time this season, we saw Aaron Rodgers throw an epic Hail Mary pass to complete regulation play.  This time, however, another legend took over and delivered Arizona a chance to play for the Halas trophy.  Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer are, to me, among the best NFL stories this year.  Truly exceptional players who the spotlight of glory has almost petulantly avoided.  The Steelers showed a depth against the Broncos that is almost surreal.  Yes, I've heard the claims that that game was 'ugly', that the Steelers 'deserved' to win and that the Broncos got 'lucky'.  I politely disagree with all of that.  The Broncos are the number one seed for a reason, a good reason.  They grind.  They play full-tilt football for 60 minutes in every single game.  It doesn't matter that Roethlisberger played MVP style.  It doesn't matter that the Bronco hands folk couldn't catch a nerf ball in the first half.  It doesn't matter that Peyton Manning looks like a sad 'has been'.  Grind and effort won that game, just as it did 12 others this season.  Maybe I'm just a biased Denver fan, or a curmudgeonly old fart, but to me, that's still good football.

I'm going to be a little too honest here, so if you don't like that, or take your fandom a bit too seriously, then just skip this paragraph.  After the NFC game in Charlotte, Cam Newton once again grabbed a 12th man flag and threw it in celebration of the Panther's victory.  Some Seattle fans were a bit 'put out' by this action, calling Cam a poor winner, classless and yes, a thug.  One fan named Sarah even penned a letter to Newton letting him know how Seattle fans "feel" about being beaten and their holy fabric relic being so disrespected.  Rarely outside of FAUX News have I read such entitled bullshit.  Seattle was the visitor in Carolina, and Seattle lost.  For Cam Newton to demonstrate dramatically the battle cry of 'Not in my house!' isn't poor sportsmanship, or classless.  Cam Newton, nor any fan or player outside of Seattle's payroll OWE respect  to the 12th man, a fabricated mythology of the false importance of fandom.  Don't want Newton disrespecting your holy relic?  Don't lose on his field.  The whine about this has confirmed what I've believed for several years now.  With the exception of the Eagles, Seahawk fans are The. Worst. Fans. Ever. Period. (Extra period for emphasis.)  Raider Nation is psychotic.  Patriot Fans are arrogantly delusional.  Bronco fans suffer from PTSD and Browns fans are just pathologically pissed off.  But only Seahawk fans think their team is somehow the purist and most divine expression of footballandia.  Half of those who wear the puke green and awful blue are bandwagon fans anyway.  And somehow, Can Newton is supposed to recognize their importance to existence as we know it?  I like Seattle, and have since their days in the AFC West.  I think they have one of the best owners in the NFL.  Pete Carroll is a tremendously good coach, even if he dodged consequence for his legal violations at USC.  Take it from a Bronco fan.  None of that justifies whining and wailing when you got beat by the better team, with the better quarterback.  Dynasties aren't built on plaid shirts, coffee and fan flags.  Suck it up and save it for next year.

And then their were 4.  I think the majority of the nation wants to see Arizona - Denver in Super Bowl 50.  Either Peyton Manning would be able to retire on top, or Larry Fitzgerald would finally get the bling that future Hall of Famer deserves, having slaved away in obscurity for so long.  Sadly, neither the punditry at large , nor myself think this will happen.  This time, as not often happens, it's the best against the second best in both matchups.  As I've written before, the Conference championship games are often better than the Super Bowl itself.  Lets hope for that.

NFC:

Arizona (2) at Carolina (1)

There is a possibility that this game could be colder at kick-off than the meeting in Denver, Colorado.  That alone favors the Panthers, with their option run game and speed to the outside.  It cannot be over-stated how much the Cardinals will miss Tyrann Mathiew, the Honey Badger, in this game.  He's one of the very best sideline to sideline defenders, and he isn't playing.  Let's be honest, the Cardinals haven't looked that sharp in their last two games.  Fitzgerald is a legit phenomenon, but Palmer can be confused.  Against Kuechly and company, he will be confused about who rushing and who is dropping for cross-cover.  No offense meant to Ron Rivera, but Arians is the better coach.  He's gonna have to have the game plan of the decade to win this contest.  I hope he does, but what he doesn't have is the real Carolina X-factor, Cam Newton.  In my view, this one comes down to Newtons feet.  He rushes for at least 70 yards, and Carolina advances.

Arizona - 27, Carolina - 31

AFC:

New England (2) at Denver (1)

I have an overdeveloped sense of irony which leaves me with a heavy sarcasm out-queue.  So I giggle like a child when the same people who defend Angry Tommy as the bestest QB evar! because he has 4 rings without any good offensive support is now unstoppable because he has, get this, full offensive support.  Two years ago, when the Patriots got crushed in Denver for the AFC title, Belichick was spreading bullshit about how New England had always been a 'running team'.  Brady had more rushing yards in that game (7) than Blount did (6).  Can the bullshit of history here.  The Patriots don't run the ball.  They don't need to.  Their hack and slash quick passing game sets up the deep ball and keeps them advancing.  I will be surprised if the Patriots run the ball more than 25 times in this contest.  It is entirely possible that they won't have to.  Seriously, this game boils down to one thing only.  Who controls the middle of the field.  Brady isn't the best quarterback of all time, but Darth Belichick is the best coach of all time.  When the Patriots have the ball, they can work the edges on short outs.  The Broncos can't.  When the Broncos have the ball, I expect the Hatriots to crowd the line and drop with disguised crossing cover.  Unless the Denver D can get some turnovers, New England will be advancing to their 9th Superb Owl. 

New England - 34, Denver 20

Divisional Playoffs 2016

I'm down a hand (a thumb, really) so my normally laborious typing has gone from hunt and peck to just heck.  Because of that there will not be whole lot of exposition presented here.  I will write this, as personal note to the Cincinnati Bengals:  Folks, I get it that Vonteze Burfect was the player who handed you the opportunity to win your first playoff game in 8 tries.  He also cost you that game.  You're welcome to twist logic and justify the latter with the former,  but you're doing so from your coaches, watching Pittsburgh move on.  No amount of rationalization masks the fact that Burfect is a dirty player, a cheap-shot artist.  It is commendable that you have kept Coach lewis, but you need to jettison Burfect, my opinion.

Folks, as y'all know, I'm a Bronco fan.  I am saddened, borderline disgusted, that the Broncos will now face a matchup against the walking wounded.

I don't ever remember all 4 wildcard teams winning in the first weekend of the playoffs.  Oh, that's right; it's because that's never happened before.That is a weirdness fully in keeping with how weird this season has been.  maybe they can all keep it going.

NFC:

Green Bay (5) at Arizona (2)

The Packers looked awfully good against Gruden's Taterskins.  Bruce Arians isn't Jay Gruden, and the Cardinals D is so very much better than that of Washington.  Lacy was able to get his wheels going under that bulk, but the speed of the Cardinals front seven will ensure that he doesn't get the momentum to carry him 5 yards per belly-flop.  With two weeks to prep and plan, Arizona walks away with this.

Green Bay - 20,  Arizona - 31

Seattle (6) at Carolina (1)

As is usual, y'all are welcome and encouraged to mock or castigate me for being incorrect.  My first prediction for this game is this:  Marshawn Lynch's impact on the game will be slightly to the left of "none".  It's not that I don't think he's a terrific power runner, he is.  But Carolina has stopped most every power back they've played against this year, and Lynch hasn't taken a game snap in months.  I hesitate to write something so laden with inference, but the Hawks have lopoked better without him than with him.  In a defensive struggle of this magnitude, it will boil down to controlling quarterbacks, not RBs.  Right now, that favors Cam Newton.  It's oh so easy to blame Wilson's under-performance last weekend on weather, but that really wasn't it.  It was a stout defense that befuddled the Hawks, and Carolina is better.  Not just on the D side, but the Panthers have the best playmaker in football under center..  I expect it will be close, though not as low scoring as many predict.

Seattle - 19, Carolina - 27

AFC:

Kansas City (5) at New England (2)

I am tempted to repeat the same mantra that I have spouted for years now:

New England does not lose at Foxborough in January.

Not so fast, buckwheat.  The Chiefs didn't just defeat the Texans; they systematically crushed them.  KC has been doing that to everyone for 11 straight weeks now.   They have dominated on offense, defense and special teams.  Last year, Belichick was able to get past the Ravens with trick formations.  Reid will have his team ready.  Yup, the Hatriots will have Edelmann back, and it looks like Gronk will play despite injury.  It doesn't really matter if the NE line can't control Houston, Hudson and Poe.  They can't.

Kansas City - 21, New England - 13

Pittsburgh (6) at Denver (1)

As a Bronco fan, this sucks.  If Pittsburgh wins, the narrative will be that the Broncos were straw men all along, and that the Steelers are heroic.  In other words, the same narrative as if the Steelers were at full strength.  They aren't.  They won't have their season leading rusher, or arguably the leagues best receiver.  And Roesthlethsbergerger is hurt.  If the Broncos win, that's all you'll hear, that they beat damaged goods.  That sucks.  Lets be clear, I don't think Pittsburgh can win this game; nobody thinks Pittsburgh can win this game.  The pundits are spinning the right drama narratives about the stout Pitt D and Peyton Manning's decrepitude, but obviously none of them believe it either.  Unlike the last showdown in Pennsylvania,  Ward is back, Brandon Marshall is back, the Broncos league leading defense is running full power.  Thats the only narrative that will matter in the end.

Pittsburgh - 13, Denver - 28