Will Bernie Sanders Win New Hampshire? - Iowa Results Analysis and NH Polls Update

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• published: 05 Feb 2016
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In my last video I told you that Iowa was too close to call, and even after the results are in I still feel the same way. Hillary, of course, picked up more delegates than Bernie, but perhaps more importantly, the vote was within .2%, (or .3%) which has been quite accurately described as a “virtual tie”. Technically, Hillary won. But the outcome will likely do Bernie more favours. The virtual tie serves as clear evidence that much of the propaganda that has been launched against him is false: he's not unelectable, he's not a long-shot, and his supporters aren't just a handful of college kids and very active internet ghosts. Hillary's failure to secure a solid victory in Iowa makes her front-runner status suspect, and this impression will surely redouble once she loses in New Hampshire, as I'm sure you know Bernie will win there. And... You are sure, right? The morning that I started writing this segment of Question Time, I googled “New Hampshire Primary”. The very first page I came upon was this this article from the Hill: Clinton narrows the gap in New Hampshire by Bradford Richardson And I immediately shot hot coffee out of my nostrils. If you look at Huffpo's NH tracker, you won't see any narrowing. Bernie's lead appears only to be growing. On the RealClearPolitics graph, we see a tiny blip here. Do you see it? It's about a 1% change for each over a couple of days.. nothing worth reporting on. Perhaps the writer of this article, Bradford Richardson, was talking about the polls shown on fivethrityeight.com? No: their poll tracker isn't showing anything. And, they're giving him a 96% chance of winning: finally, they're making an accurate prediction again. So, kudos on that. So what exactly is the Hill talking about? But Clinton gained 4 points overnight, the biggest single gain in the daily poll since it began tracking, while Sanders dropped 3 points. That's a huge change. But I'm not seeing it on any of the popular poll trackers. So where did the Hill go to find a favourable story for Clinton? Conveniently, Richardson has provided us a link. Oh, he's using that well-known and well-respected “Hiller 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll”. So when Richardson says that she's had the biggest gain since the poll began tracking, he was talking about this poll, that has been tracking the race for all of four days. That this was day 4 for this relatively unknown tracking poll, and that the major poll aggregators aren't showing the same results was conveniently left out. That's called cherry picking. Bernie Sanders is, in fact, leading massively in NH. Suggestions that Clinton is making a come back are absurd, and perhaps intended to deflate Bernie supporters' enthusiasm. My prediction? It won't work. But you can expect more of this in the run-up to the vote. So, if you're in NH, ignore it. You can't always believe the msm's reporting on polls, but if you believe in Bernie, or Hillary for that matter, go and prove it by participating in the process. If you're sure of your candidate, you're kind of duty-bound to do so. And, you are sure, right?